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Archive for November 2020

Why ′Bambi,′ at 75, isn′t just for kids | Film | DW | 08.08.2017

WHAT CLIMATE CHANGE MENTAL ILLNESS LOOKS LIKE

Climate Change & Mental Health - REBEL

LINK TO SOURE: https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/oct/28/everybody-has-something-to-lose-the-exciting-depressing-life-of-a-climate-writer

The Guardian’s global environment editor, Jonathan Watts, says that the climate emergency resonates with readers on an emotional level.

I report from the Amazon to the Arctic on the disappearing wonders of a rapidly deteriorating world. Along with a growing number of colleagues, I investigate who is affected, who is to blame and who is fighting back. This is both depressing and exciting. The trends for the climate, the oceans, the forests and the soil are unrelentingly frightening. Humanity has never faced a more wicked problem than the collapse of these natural life support systems. Nobody is free of responsibility. Everybody has something to lose, especially those with the most power. The challenge is huge, urgent and beset with opponents. But change is happening nonetheless. The primary challenge for a journalist is to make it feel personal. Without that, the science becomes abstract, global issues seem too huge to grasp, and it becomes difficult to relate to far off places and other species. Without that, the “environment” slips too easily into an elite pigeonhole for academics, policymakers and middle-class white people, when it should be recognised as the main driver of inequality, conflict and injustice. This is not just another subject; it is a prism through which to see the world.

How 'Bambi' Hoodwinked American Environmentalists | Essay | Zócalo Public  Square

I came to this view reluctantly. Starting as a cub reporter in Asia in the 1990s, I initially wrote about politics, finance and sport – issues that are traditionally considered newsworthy because they are fast moving, human-focussed and marketable. The more I travelled as a foreign correspondent, the harder it became to ignore how the degradation of the air, water, soil and climate was threatening people, other species and future generations. These themes rarely made front-page news, but they were often the underlying cause of political tension, economic instability and psychological unease. In the noughties I visited Tibet to look at a new railway development, but discovered greater concerns about denuded grasslands, desertification and melting glaciers. In Xinjiang and Mongolia, I went to report on ethnic tensions were heightened by a massive expansion of mining operations and an influx of construction workers. On the Yangtze, I joined an expedition of marine biologists that declared the extinction of the Baiji dolphin due to pollution, river traffic and hydroelectric dams.

In 2012, I moved to Latin America, hoping to find a less destructive model of development, but found similar tensions in the Amazon, Patagonia and Atlantic. If anything, there were even greater levels of corruption and political instability connected to resource extraction and infrastructure projects. Media organisations tend to focus on the local sparks of protests, scandals and bankruptcies, but viewed together from a global environmental perspective, it is possible to make out a broader pattern of exploitation and increasing evidence of a systemic breakdown. Single articles do not easily capture this so it is sometimes important to gather material together and collaborate with other organisations in bigger journalistic projects such as the Polluters, Green Blood, Age of Extinction and Defenders. More important still is to take the “environment” out of a media ghetto, in which it is treated as a separate and somewhat fringe subject with a specialist vocabulary that can create even greater distance.

What does an Environmentalist do? (with pictures)

In English, the word “environment” is uneasy on the ear and stiffly at odds with the vibrant orgy of life it represents. This reflects the word’s hodgepodge Victorian origins. The first use of “environment” in its modern sense was in 1828 by the Scottish thinker Thomas Carlyle, who borrowed the French “environ” (surrounding) to express the German term “umgebung” in a controversial translation of Goethe. In that era, as now, the word ENVIRONMENT means a flux of landscape, spirit and culture that shaped humanity more naturally than the mechanistic drives of the Industrial Revolution. But it is also wrapped up inside a western Enlightenment duality of self and “other”. The environment thus became something to exploit, rather than something that humanity was part of. As Albert Einstein later put it: “The environment is everything that isn’t me”. Every individual feels themselves to be the centre of their own universe suggesting that nature is something separate that we can affect without being affected. Carlyle and Einstein would be horrified at how far this duality has gone.

Climate change takes a toll on our minds, too | Environment| All topics  from climate change to conservation | DW | 31.08.2018

Over the past 50 years, the natural environment has been treated as an antonym of the human economy. The greater the gap between them, the more peripheral and frightening the environment seems. The environment ministry of every country is the weakest part of the government and the sustainability officer of every corporation is not allowed to make important decisions.

BUT RECENTLY ENVIRONMENTAL AWARENESS HAS BEEN CULTIVATED AMONG THE MASSSES BY THE CLIMATE CRISIS.

October 7th-13th is Mental Illness Awareness Week | Columbia River Mental  Health Services

The people at large may have the occasional pang of conscience about the environment, but very few treated it as a priority until recently because it was psychologically easier to push the issue to the margins. That has changed dramatically over the past year. The peripheral issue has moved front and centre thanks to long campaigns by climate campaigners.

Greta Thunberg, school strikers, Extinction Rebellion and the Sunrise Movement. It is because persistent warnings from scientists are so much starker in the wake of the IPCC’s 1.5C report last October. And most of all, it is because record heat, fires, storms, droughts and species decline show we are hitting ecological limits. There is no margin left.

Climate Change & Mental Health - REBEL

To accurately reflect the disruption caused by the crisis, we have to disrupt our normal forms of reporting. The Guardian has responded by changing the language of our styleguide to reflect the urgency expressed by scientists, by giving more prominence to the climate and nature crises, and by focussing attention on areas where change is needed – including fossil fuel corporations and the financial, legal and political systems that support them. I believe this will be just the start, and not just for the Guardian. In future, I hope journalists in all organisations and fields will question their role, put more priority on humankind’s relationship with nature, and re-imagine what coverage should be.

Young Leaders Unite to Save Earth from Climate Change - Sada El balad

That does not mean following the populists in tearing up the foundations of knowledge and sinking into the mire of relativity and fake news. The battle for ideas is best fought in peer-reviewed journals rather than gladiatorial-style TV talkshows where loud voices drown out strong principles. Science remains paramount. Accuracy must always be the goal. But truth is more than datasets. It has to resonate on an emotional level. And it has to apply as much to the periphery as to the centre.

Mental Illness Overlap: A common set of genes may underlie several psychiatric  disorders | by Divyangana Rakesh | Lazy Synapse | Medium

Bringing together the personal and the global is easier said than done, but that is the task ahead. In one way it has always been the job of journalists to make this connection. After all, that is what “media” means. But this work as a go-between feels particularly urgent now that our environment is breaking down and our politics is splintering into nationalist tribes. Addressing that is a responsibility. That is what keeps me from sleeping sometimes. It’s also what keeps me alive.

Animated Bambi Debate Arouses Pastoral Passions - The New York Times

Fossil-fuel emissions unbraked by financial crisis
Fossil fuel emissions hit record high after unexpected growth: Global  Carbon Budget 2017

THIS POST IS A CRITICAL EVALUATION OF THE ASSUMED CAUSAL RELATIONSHIP IN CLIMATE SCIENCE BETWEEN FOSSIL FUEL EMISSIONS AND OBSERVED CHANGE IN ATMOSPHERIC COMPOSITION. IT IS PRESENTED AS A SYNTHESIS OF THE RELATED POSTS ON THIS SITE.

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RELATED POST#1THE CRUCIAL ROLE OF FOSSIL FUEL EMMISSIONS IN THE THEORY OF ANTHROPOGENIC GLOBAL WARMING [LINK]  

Here NASA scientist Dr. Peter Griffith explains the foundational concept of the science of anthropogenic (AGW) global warming and climate change and the kind of climate action implied by the science that humans must undertake to moderate and control the progress of global warming. He holds up a chunk of coal and explains that “the carbon in this chunk of coal was taken out of the atmosphere 350 million years ago. And since the Industrial Revolution, we’ve been taking it out of the ground and using it for fuel and that has released this very old carbon back that is not part of the current account of the carbon cycle into the atmosphere. This external and unnatural perturbation of the delicately balanced carbon cycle causes atmospheric CO2 to go up. What this means is that anthropogenic global warming (AGW) is NOT a theory about carbon dioxide emissions in general but a theory specific to the impact of the industrial economy that dug up fossil fuels loaded with carbon from carbon cycles that are millions of years old. This is EXTERNAL CARBON that is not part of the current account of the carbon cycle. The essence of the theory of AGW is that external carbon from very old carbon cycles in fossil fuel emissions cause warming by increasing atmospheric CO2 levels and that therefore the amount of warming can be attenuated by reducing fossil fuel emissions. (Hansen, 1981) (Meinshausen, 2009) (Stocker, 2013) (Callendar, 1938) (Lacis, 2010) (Hansen, 2016) (IPCC, 2000) (IPCC, 2014).

At the root of the proposed AGW causation chain is the ability of fossil fuel emissions to cause measurable changes in atmospheric CO2 levels in excess of random natural variability because very old external carbon in fossil fuel emissions acts as a perturbation of the current account of the carbon cycle. AGW climate change theory is specific to the impact of the industrial economy and specific to CO2 from fossil fuels as the ultimate cause of the observed warming since the industrial revolution. Carbon cycle flows are not a factor either in AGW theory or in the design of climate action and carbon budgets needed to attenuate AGW. For example, respiration emissions and photosynthesis absorptions are not a factor in the AGW equation. TO SUMMARIZE: AGW IS NOT A THEORY ABOUT THE EVILS OF CARBON DIOXIDE. IT IS A THEORY ABOUT THE EVILS OF FOSSIL FUEL EMISSIONS, This evil is understood as the responsiveness of atmospheric composition to fossil fuel emissions. Fossil fuel emissions cause atmospheric CO2 concentration to rise, and rising atmospheric CO2 causes higher temperatures, and the sequence of higher and higher temperatures caused by higher and higher atmospheric CO2 is understood as global warming and because the rise in atmospheric CO2 was due to human activity, the warming is understood as human caused or anthropogenic. A necessary condition for this theory is that atmospheric composition in terms of its CO2 concentration must be responsive to fossil fuel emissions.

salby

RELATED POST#2:  MONTE CARLO SIMULATION#1 OF THE UNCERTAINTY IN CARBON CYCLE FLOWS  [LINK]  

As explained in the related post, climate science declares uncertainties in carbon cycle flows (shown below) but does not take them into account when making the mass balance. The mass balance made in this way does indicate that the annual rise in atmospheric CO2 concentration is approximately half of the annual fossil fuel emissions. This ration is described in climate science as the RETAINED FRACTION, meaning that half of the fossil fuel emissions remains in the atmosphere net of carbon cycle flows to and from the atmosphere. This positive constant as a retained fraction implies that atmospheric composition is responsive to fossil fuel emissions. However, this retained fraction computation contains a fatal statistical flaw because the uncertainties in carbon cycle flows, though declared, are not taken into account in the estimation of the retained fraction. In the related post, the magnitude of this error is estimated with a Monte Carlo Simulation.

The simulation is used to estimate the highest value of the unknown standard deviations at which we can detect the presence of human emissions in the carbon cycle. For the purpose of this test we propose that an uncertain flow account is in balance as long as the Null Hypothesis that the sum of the flows is zero cannot be rejected. The alpha error rate for the test is set to a high value of alpha=0.10 to ensure that any reasonable ability to discriminate between the flow account WITH Anthropogenic Emissions from a the flow account WITHOUT Anthropogenic Emissions is taken into evidence that the relatively small fossil fuel emissions can be detected in the presence of much larger and uncertain natural flows. The spreadsheet used in this determination is available for download from an online data archive Data Archive Link . In the simulation we assign different levels of uncertainty to the flows for which no uncertainty data are available and test the null hypothesis that the flows balance with anthropogenic emissions (AE) included and again with AE excluded. If the flows balance when AE are included and they don’t balance when AE are excluded then we conclude that the presence of the AE can be detected at that level of uncertainty. However, if the flows balance with and without AE then we conclude that the stochastic flow account is not sensitive to AE at that level of uncertainty because it is unable to detect their presence. If the presence of AE cannot be detected no role for their effect on climate can be deduced from the data at that level of uncertainty in natural flows. The balance is computed from the atmospheric perspective as Balance=Input-Output where Input is flow to the atmosphere and Output is flow from the atmosphere. The p-values for hypothesis tests for uncertainties in the natural flows from 1% of mean to 6.5% of mean are presented below. The tabulation shows that fossil fuel emissions can be detected if the uncertainty in carbon cycle flows is less than 2% of average. Since the IPCC declared uncertainties for carbon cycle flows are greater than 6%, we conclude from this Monte Carlo simulation analysis that relatively small flows of fossil fuel emissions cannot be detected net of uncertainties in fossil fuel emissions and that therefore it is not possible that atmospheric CO2 concentration is responsive to fossil fuel emissions.

stochastic-flow-table

  1. Natural: Ocean surface to atmosphere:Mean=78.4,SD=N/A.
  2. Natural: Atmosphere to ocean:surface:Mean=80.0,SD=N/A
  3. Human: Fossil fuel emissions:surface to atmosphere:Mean=7.8,SD=0.6
  4. Human: Land use change:surface to atmosphere:Mean=1.1,SD=0.8
  5. Natural: Photosynthesis:atmosphere to surface:Mean=123.0,SD=8.0
  6. Natural: Respiration/fire:surface to atmosphere:Mean=118.7,SD=N/A
  7. Natural: Freshwater to atmosphere:Mean=1.0,SD=N/A
  8. Natural: Volcanic emissions surface to atmosphere:Mean=0.1,SS =N/A
  9. Natural: Rock weathering:surface to atmosphere:Mean=0.3,SD=N/A
Stanislaw UIam & the H-Bomb - YouTube

RELATED POST#3:  MONTE CARLO SIMULATION#2 OF THE UNCERTAINTY IN CARBON CYCLE FLOWS  [LINK]  

MONTE-4
MONTE-2

The charts above show show 150 randomly drawn values of atmospheric CO2 concentration with and without fossil fuel emissions. In the second chart, with fossil fuel emissions included, he airborne fraction is found to be μ=0.477, close to the 0.5 assumed in climate science. However, the standard deviation of the airborne fraction is σ=1.27 in the presence of uncertain carbon cycle flows with their uncertainty taken into account. The large variance implies that the computed retained fraction does not have the statistical significance needed for its interpretation in terms of the phenomena being studied. We conclude from these results that when stated uncertainties in carbon cycle flows are taken into account, no evidence is found that fossil fuel emissions cause changes in atmospheric composition because because the uncertainties in carbon cycle flows are two large to be able to detect the effect of relatively small flows of fossil fuel emissions that are an order of magnitude smaller than carbon cycle flows.

Spurious Correlation | The Cook & Bynum Fund

RELATED POST#4:  DETRENDED CORRELATION BETWEEN ANNUAL CHANGES IN ATMOSPHERIC COMPOSITION AND ANNUAL FOSSIL FUEL EMISSIONS  [LINK]  

Here we use detrended correlation analysis to study the relationship between annual fossil fuel emissions and annual changes in atmospheric CO2 concentration reported by the Mauna Loa Observatory. Detrending is necessary because it is known that the correlation between time series data derive from two sources – (1) the responsiveness at the time scale of interest, and (2) shared trends. It is necessary to remove the effect of shared trends to measure the responsiveness at the time scale to be studied. An annual time scale is used as it is the norm in climate science for this relationship. The data and their detrended correlation analysis are presented in the charts below.

DISCUSSION: THE SOURCE DATA SHOW A STRONG STATISTICALLY SIGNIFICANT CORRELATION OF CORR=0.75 BETWEEN ANNUAL CHANGES IN MLO CO2 AND ANNUAL EMISSIONS. THIS CORRELATION APPEARS TO SUPPORT THE USUAL ASSUMPTION THAT CHANGES IN ATMOSPHERIC CO2 CONCENTRATION ARE CAUSED BY FOSSIL FUEL EMISSIONS AND THAT THEREFORE THESE CHANGES CAN BE MODERATED WITH CLIMATE ACTION TO CONTROL AND REDUCE THE RATE OF WARMING.

HOWEVER, IT IS KNOWN THAT SOURCE DATA CORRELATION BETWEEN TIME SERIES DATA DERIVE FROM TWO SOURCES. THESE ARE (1) SHARED TRENDS WITH NO CAUSATION IMPLICATION AND (2) RESPONSIVENESS AT THE TIME SCALE OF INTEREST.

HERE THE TIME SCALE OF INTEREST IS ANNUAL BECAUSE THE THEORY REQUIRES THAT ANNUAL CHANGES IN ATMOSPHERIC CO2 CONCENTRATION ARE CAUSED BY ANNUAL FOSSIL FUEL EMISSIONS. THIS TEST IS MADE BY REMOVING THE SHARED TREND THAT IS KNOWN TO HAVE NO CAUSATION INFORMATION OR IMPLICATION.

HERE WE FIND THAT WHEN THE SHARED TREND IS REMOVED THE OBSERVED CORRELATION DISAPPPEARS. THE APPARENT CORRELATION BETWEEN EMISSIONS AND CHANGES IN ATMOSPHERIC CO2 CONCENTRATION IS THUS FOUND TO BE SPURIOUS.

CONCLUSION: THE DATA FOR ANNUAL FOSSIL FUEL EMISSIONS AND ANNUAL CHANGES IN ATMOSPHERIC CO2 CONCENTRATION DO NOT SHOW THAT FOSSIL FUEL EMISSIONS CAUSE ATMOSPHERIC CO2 CONCENTRATION TO CHANGE. THE FINDING IMPLIES THAT THERE IS NO EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE IN SUPPORT OF THE THEORY OF CLIMATE ACTION. THIS THEORY HOLDS THAT MOVING THE GLOBAL ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE FROM FOSSIL FUELS TO RENEWABLES WILL MODERATE THE RATE OF INCREASE IN ATMOSPHERIC CO2 AND THEREBY MODERATE THE RATE OF WARMING.

HOW TO MEASURE FOSSIL FUEL EMISSIONS | Thongchai Thailand

David Doniger | NRDC

CLIMATE ALARM#1: NRDC EXPERT BLOG BY DAVID DONIGER: WE SAVED THE OZONE LAYER. WE CAN SAVE THE CLIMATE. LINK TO SOURCE: https://www.nrdc.org/experts/david-doniger/we-saved-ozone-layer-we-can-save-climate

CLIMATE ALARM#2: THE GUARDIAN: HOW TO STOP THE CLIMATE CRISIS: SIX LESSONS FROM THE CAMPAIGN THAT SAVED THE OZONE: LINK: https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/jan/20/how-to-stop-the-climate-crisis-six-lessons-from-the-campaign-that-saved-the-ozone

PART-1; WHAT THE SOURCE DOCUMENTS SAY:

NRDC: Climate change is not the first planetary pollution crisis we have faced. That distinction belongs to the depletion of the earth’s protective ozone layer. Thirty-two years ago, countries signed the world’s most successful environmental treaty, the Montreal Protocol. That’s the treaty that saved the ozone layer, saved millions of lives, and avoided a global catastrophe. We too often take the rescue of the ozone layer for granted. A whole generation has grown up not hearing much about it, except maybe once each September when the return of the Antarctic ozone hole gets a brief mention in the news. As we struggle to curb the carbon pollution that’s driving climate change, it’s worth remembering, and learning from, our success in solving the ozone crisis. As beautifully told in the new documentary Ozone Hole, the story begins nearly 50 years ago when two chemists, Sherwood Rowland and Mario Molina, discovered that chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) released from aerosol sprays could rise miles over our heads into the stratosphere. There, the sun’s harsh rays split the CFCs apart, triggering reactions that destroyed ozone molecules. As the ozone shield weakened, more dangerous UV rays could reach the earth’s surface. That would have condemned millions of people worldwide to die from skin cancer, go blind with cataracts, or suffer from immune diseases. Their discovery made big news and galvanized Americans. Aerosol sales plummeted, as millions of consumers switched to pump sprays and roll-ons. Some companies quickly redesigned their products. But others dug in. For more than a decade, the chemical companies that made CFCs reacted much like today’s coal and oil companies: They denied the science, attacked the scientists, and predicted economic ruin. But scientists and lawyers at NRDC—well before I got here—fought back. They helped Rowland and Molina tell their story to Congress and the news media. They pushed for bans on CFC aerosols here at home and pressed the United States to demand the same from other countries. Rowland Sherwood (left) in the lab at the University of California, Irvine, with Mario J. Molina, January 1975. Twenty years later, they shared the Nobel Prize in chemistry.
University of California Irvine Special Collections Library. In the late 1970s, the public demanded action and the government responded. Congress added ozone layer protections to the Clean Air Act, federal agencies mopped up the last aerosols, and the State Department began working with other nations on a treaty. In 1980, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency issued an “endangerment” finding, saying that the other uses of CFCs in refrigerators, air conditioners, and industrial processes also posed a threat to the ozone layer and to public health. But when Ronald Reagan took office, things bogged down. Those of you who remember Anne Gorsuch and James Watt will know that protecting the ozone layer was not a priority in Reagan’s first years. The EPA did nothing, treaty talks stalled, and CFC use rebounded, so by the mid-1980s, production was back to its 1974 peak and rising fast. The danger was growing again. So I and an NRDC colleague, Alan Miller, sued the EPA under the Clean Air Act, because the agency was obligated by the endangerment finding to issue CFC regulations. Once William Ruckelshaus replaced Anne Gorsuch at the helm of Reagan’s EPA, the agency to its credit followed the science and settled our lawsuit with a plan of action. The EPA worked with NASA and other agencies to amass a compelling, peer-reviewed scientific assessment. The EPA brought together industry and environmentalists and others to agree on alternatives. The State Department restarted treaty talks. Congress held hearings in the mid-1980’s under the bipartisan leadership of Senators Max Baucus, John Chafee, and Al Gore, and Representatives Henry Waxman and Sherwood Boehlert, keeping the danger in the public eye. And the news media covered the story, without giving equal time to marginal skeptics. The surprise discovery of the Antarctic ozone hole in the mid-1980’s added new urgency. Within a year, NASA scientists led by Susan Solomon, now at MIT, nailed the connection between CFCs and the ozone hole. By 1986, even the chemical industry acknowledged CFC limits were needed. In 1986, I proposed the idea of a 10-year global phaseout—to start using available alternatives immediately and to create market incentives to rapidly perfect and deploy solutions for the remaining uses. Again to their credit, Reagan’s next EPA administrator, Lee Thomas, and Secretary of State George Schultz put a phase-out plan on the international negotiating table. Yet not everybody was on board. Interior Secretary Donald Hodel urged Reagan to tell people to just wear hats and sunglasses. (My role in exposing Hodel’s “Rayban Plan” is told starting at the 31:30 mark in the Ozone Hole documentary.) His plan became a punchline. Reagan, who himself had had skin cancer, continued to back the treaty. And in September 1987, countries reached agreement on the Montreal Protocol. By 1990 it had been amended to become a global phaseout agreement. That same year Congress added strong ozone safeguards to the Clean Air Act. Every president since Reagan has supported the treaty; every country on earth, from China to East Timor, is now a full party. Rowland and Molina received the Nobel Prize in Chemistry in 1995. It is not easy to convey the scale of the catastrophe that was avoided, the disaster that did not happen. This is what NASA scientist Dr. Paul A. Newman has accomplished in his extraordinary analysis, “The World Avoided.” You can read about it here, and you can watch Dr. Newman’s presentation at an NRDC press event in 2012. (A more sophisticated animation of Dr. Newman’s findings is shown in Ozone Hole starting at 41:30.) Millions of lives saved. Hundreds of millions of cancers averted. Agricultural disaster avoided. These are big achievements. But our work is not done. Here are a few thoughts on what we still need to do under the Montreal Protocol and on lessons from the ozone treaty for the fight against climate change. First, as Dr. Newman has shown, the ozone layer is healing. While countries have committed phasing out the last ozone-depleting chemicals, we have to keep our eye on the ball to make sure it happens on schedule. And while national compliance with Montreal commitments has been extraordinarily high, governments have to work harder to crack down on law-breakers and smugglers. If we stick with it, scientists expect the Antarctic ozone hole to close up for good later this century. Antarctic Ozone Hole 1980 through 2018, courtesy NASA Second, we can do more under Montreal to fight climate change. There’s already been a climate change bonus. The CFCs were also extremely powerful heat-trapping pollutants, and replacing them has slowed climate change by a decade. Had we not acted, the world would already be suffering even more severe droughts, wildfires, floods, and storms. The extreme weather we’re suffering year after year would have been even worse. But one group of CFC replacements, called HFCs, poses a big problem. HFCs are also powerful greenhouse gases, and Dr. Newman’s science panel has estimated that if we let them keep growing, by midcentury they’ll trap as much heat as CFCs did at their peak. Another scientific team showed that if left unchecked they could add nearly half a degree centigrade to global warming by 2100, making it even harder to hold the overall warming to 1.5 degrees, or even 2 degrees, beyond which climate impacts become catastrophic. Wisely, the Montreal Treaty gave the parties the responsibility to ensure that replacement chemicals are safe—and that includes ensuring that they don’t magnifying climate change. So 10 years ago, two groups of countries—a group of island nations led by Micronesia, and the United States, Canada, and Mexico—proposed using the Montreal Protocol to phase down HFCs. It took a decade of education and tough negotiations, but in October 2016 the nations of the world agreed on the Kigali Amendment to phase down HFCs by 85 percent worldwide over the coming decades. Once again, countries came together following the proven formula under the Montreal Protocol, with all countries committing to cut their emissions, as developed countries take the lead and help fund action in developing countries. The NRDC team in Kigali when the HFC Amendment was adopted. The Kigali Amendment has been ratified by more than 60 countries and came into effect on January 1, 2019. The Trump administration said in 2017 that it supported the agreement’s goals and approach and was considering ratification. The HFC phase-down has broad industry and bipartisan support—13 GOP Senators wrote the president last year urging ratification and a bipartisan phase-down bill was also introduced. But the administration has made no decision yet. That’s better, of course, than Trump’s outright rejection of the Paris Climate Accord, but it still leaves the U.S. in limbo. So NRDC has embarked on getting leading states to take action. California passed HFC legislation last September, and Washington State is on the brink of enacting its own bill. New York, Maryland, and Connecticut have committed to HFC restrictions under existing laws, and many other states in the U.S. Climate Alliance are considering identical laws or regulations. There will be another bipartisan push for federal HFC legislation this year, with surprising allies running from NRDC to the National Association of Manufacturers. Meanwhile, the industry continues adopting climate-friendlier alternatives to HFCs. So, even in these difficult times, the Montreal Protocol stands out as proof positive that the earth’s nearly 200 countries can effectively cooperate to protect their citizens from a planetary pollution crisis—address climate change as well as ozone depletion. CONCLUSION: We saved the ozone layer. We can save the climate.

Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC) - One Percent for the Planet

GUARDIAN: Thirty years ago, all 197 countries got together to ban the gases damaging the Earth’s ozone layer. Now we need to unite to combat an even greater threat. What can we learn from 1989? The ban on chlorofluorocarbon (CFC) gases has been an incredible success story. The ban on chlorofluorocarbon (CFC) gases has been an incredible success story.
Amid the anti-globalist chest-thumping of Brexit, Donald Trump, and the Brazilian president, Jair Bolsonaro, it may sound like the stuff of folklore. But there was a time in the recent past when all the countries of the world moved quickly to discuss a common threat, agreed an ambitious plan of action and made it work. The Montreal protocol, which came into effect 30 years ago, was drawn up to address the alarming thinning of the ozone layer in the Earth’s stratosphere. It was the first agreement in the history of the United Nations to be ratified by all 197 countries. Since it came into effect on 1 January 1989, more than 99% of the gases responsible for the problem have been eradicated and the “ozone hole” – which, in the late 80s, vied for headline space with the cold war, Diana, Princess of Wales, and Madonna – is receding in the sky and the memory. According to the latest UN study, the “ozone holes” (there are actually two: one above each pole) are healing at the rate of 1% to 3% a decade and will have completely vanished in the northern hemisphere by the 2030s and the southern hemisphere by the 2060s. This is cause for back-slapping, but also frustration that the world has not been able to unite as effectively over the climate and biodiversity crises. Here are half a dozen lessons.
The satellite animation of the changing atmosphere over the Antarctic first shown in 1985 appeared to show a growing “ozone hole”. This was a scientifically imprecise description of the thinning that was concentrated at both poles, but the metaphor – of the roof over our home planet being punctured – captured the public imagination and conveyed a sense of urgency. By contrast, many people feel distant from climate problems, which are usually illustrated with images of polar bears, filled with caveats and headlined with vague labels, such as “global warming”, which sounds benign (or even desirable for those living in cold countries), and “climate change”, which comes across as a statement of the obvious. When scientists raised the alarm about CFC, there was initially uncertainty about their impact on the atmosphere and the process, but the risks from sunlight weakly filtered by the ozone layer (cancer, crop failure, ocean ecosystem collapse) were so great that world leaders decided not to wait. Instead, they applied the “precautionary principle”: “If in doubt, cut it out.” Even before the science was settled, they started to act. This was also supposed to be the case with the climate, but lobbying to deny the validity of the science stymied action. Governments temporarily put aside cold-war hostilities and united rapidly around a solution to the ozone problem. From the first research in 1973, it took just 16 years for the world to discuss, agree and put in place a solution that reversed the trend. By comparison, scientific warnings that carbon dioxide emissions could disrupt the climate date back to at least 1962. Yet despite numerous international agreements on the subject since then (Rio 1992, Kyoto 1998, Copenhagen 2009, Paris 2015), emissions are still climbing. In the 80s, the environment was not yet the polarising issue it has become, but the dominant figures – including the US president, George HW Bush, the Soviet leader, Mikhail Gorbachev, and the British prime minister, Margaret Thatcher – still had to overcome business interests, treasury doubts and political short-termism to protect the future health of the planet. They refused to accept the delaying tactics of chemical companies that denied the science.

The phased ban on CFCs and dozens of other ozone-depleting gases was an economic blow to chemical firms, refrigerator producers and aerosol-spray manufacturers. Rich countries dealt with the job losses, technology upgrades and other economic consequences internally, but also provided support for poorer nations to manage the transition. From 1991 to 2005, pledges totalled $3.1bn. Similar arrangements exist for climate accords, but the sums need to be far higher because the actions are so much more expensive, the responsibility of industrialised nations is so much greater, and the impact on poor countries is incalculably worse.

The Montreal protocol has been updated numerous times as the science has sharpened and new climate goals have been incorporated. This month, the Kigali Amendment added a plan to cut hydrofluorocarbons by more than 80% over the next 30 years, which would reduce global heating by 0.4C by the end of the century. Under the Paris climate agreement, governments are supposed to ratchet up the ambition of their pledges to cut emissions, but most governments are failing to meet even their current inadequate targets. Looking at this list, a millennial might be tempted to conclude that the Montreal protocol was possible because it came about in a golden age when leaders were smarter, politicians more representative and populations more amenable to scientific persuasion. But, as anyone alive in 1989 knows, that is far too simple an explanation. The reality is that environmental action was easier then because the world had more ecological breathing room, capitalism was less dominant and the corporate push-back – and control over politics – was weaker. The ozone layer was a relatively simple fix compared with the climate, which is the biggest, most complex, multidimensional challenge humanity has ever faced. It is one thing confronting a handful of chemical firms, quite another to take on the world’s fossil fuel companies, car manufacturers, cement-makers and agribusiness conglomerates, representing hundreds of millions of jobs, trillions of dollars and 200-odd years of industrial development.

Bush, Thatcher, Gorbachev and the then Chinese leader, Deng Xiaoping, knew this in 1989, when global temperatures were already rising at an unnaturally rapid rate. A year earlier, in a US congressional testimony reported throughout the world, the then Nasa scientist Jim Hansen had declared “with 99% confidence” that this heating was a result of human activity.

They also knew the problem would be easier to solve then than 30 years in the future. Initially, Bush promised to lead a determined global response to climate change, but – as the short-term costs of a long-term solution became apparent – he balked. Instead of a comprehensive response, he merely strengthened research, paved the way for a drawn-out global negotiating process and complacently put his faith in future innovation and entrepreneurship. He may well have reassured himself that his environmental legacy was secure, thanks to action on ozone. But the climate can that he and others kicked forward 30 years ago is still clanking through the corridors of global conferences. It is a lot rustier now, but still basically the same half-response to a problem that becomes bigger and harder to solve with every year that passes. So this year’s anniversary of the implementation of the Montreal protocol should not just inspire nostalgia for 1989, but a curse on the first generation of leaders to dodge climate responsibility. And as we are already suffering the consequences of their failure, it should remind us that every day of delay has a massive and imminent cost. Each fraction of a degree of global heating that can be prevented will save lives, species and money. In our lifetimes, the ozone hole will be closed in the stratosphere while the increasingly angry beast of climate rages below. How angry is up to us. Montreal reminds us that nothing in politics is inevitable, that profits do not have to come before people, that global problems can have global solutions, that we can shape our own future. That depends on how far we are willing to push. In 1989, that wasn’t far enough. Nor has it been since. In 2003, the UN secretary-general, Kofi Annan, called the Montreal protocol “perhaps the single most successful international agreement to date”. Sadly, that still applies today. As the climate crisis escalates.

effects of ozone depletion | Ozone depletion, Ozone layer, Ozone

PART-2: CRITICAL COMMENTARY

(ITEM#1) The assumed comparative equivalence of the Montreal Protocol imperative of changing refrigerants to readily available alternatives with the Paris Protocol climate action imperative of overhauling the world’s energy infrastructure from fossil fuels to renewables is inconsistent with the reality of these vastly different and incomparable proposals.

The cost of compliance with the Montreal Protocol worldwide was less than $10 billon. The corresponding estimates for climate action runs into many $trillions. The two actions also differ vastly in terms of the complexity and the hardships to be borne by citizens of countries that participate. The assumption that climate action and ozone action are comparable such that since the ozone action worked so should the climate action, is not supported by the realities of these vastly different situations. While CFC alternatives were readily available in the marketplace, fossil fuel alternatives are still in development. LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/08/18/energy-storage/ .

The comparison of the ozone depletion with climate change as equivalent environmental issues that have parallels such that the feasibility of climate action can be inferred from the feasibility of changing refrigerants is not possible.

(ITEM#2) The comparison of climate action with action against ozone depletion also assumes that the action against ozone depletion was a success. The success assumption comprises two different assumptions: first, it assumes that there was empirical evidence of ozone depletion in accordance with the Rowland Molina Theory of Ozone Depletion (RMTOD), and second, that the Montreal Protocol ozone action was able to attenuate the rate of depletion. In related posts we show that there was not then and there is not now any empirical evidence to support RMTOD. The theory implies that CFC emissions will cause a gradual decline in Global Mean Total Column Ozone GMTCO. No such decline is found in the data as shown in related posts on this site listed in (ITEM#3) below. The volatility of ozone levels over the South Pole, described as an ozone hole and submitted as empirical evidence for RMTOD, is not a creation of ozone depletion but of ozone distribution as described in a related post on this site: LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2018/04/01/ozone-depletion-and-ozone-holes/ . Briefly, ozone forms only over the equator and it is distributed to the greater latitudes by the Brewer Dobson Circulation and other atmospheric circulations. The inefficiency and uncertainty of this distribution increases with latitude such that polar ozone levels tend to be most volatile to the point of periods of extreme depletion as seen in the South pole Ozone holes. The presentation of this phenomenon as evidence of RMTOD is an extreme form of scientific dishonesty.

(ITEM#3) Related posts on this site on the subject of the ozone depletion issue, the rise of UN global environmentalism, and the Montreal Protocol.

POST#1: A critical evaluation of Farman etal 1985, which stands to this day as the only empirical validation of the Rowland Molina Theory of Ozone Depletion (RMTOD). https://tambonthongchai.com/2019/03/12/ozone1966-2015/

POST#2: MARIO MOLINA AND THE ROWLAND MOLINA THEORY OF OZONE DEPLETION : https://tambonthongchai.com/?s=MOLINA

POST#3: THE OZONE HOLE OF NASA: And the distinction between the ozone hole and the Rowland Molina Theory of Ozone Depletion https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/11/04/the-ozone-hole-of-2020/

POST#4: EMPIRICAL TEST OF THE ROWLAND MOLINA THEORY OF OZONE DEPLETION: #1: LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/10/01/ozone-depletion-part-3/

POST#5: EMPIRICAL TEST OF THE ROWLAND MOLINA THEORY OF OZONE DEPLETION: #2: LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/09/30/ozone-depletion-part-2/

POST#6: EMPIRICAL TEST OF THE ROWLAND MOLINA THEORY OF OZONE DEPLETION: #3: LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/09/30/ozone-depletion-part-1/

POST#7: EMPIRICAL TEST OF THE ROWLAND MOLINA THEORY OF OZONE DEPLETION: #4: LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/09/30/ozone-depletion-part-1/

POST#8: EMPIRICAL TEST OF THE ROWLAND MOLINA THEORY OF OZONE DEPLETION: PART-5: LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2018/08/07/testozonedepletion/

Saving the Ozone Layer - Celebrating 30 Years of the Montreal Protocol -  United States Department of State
Temper Tantrum GIFs - Get the best GIF on GIPHY
WHY OH WHY CAN’T WE GET A MONTREAL PROTOCOL FOR CLIMATE CHANGE

(ITEM#4) THE UGLY HISTORY OF THE OZONE CRISIS: The essential argument here by the NRDC and the Guardian is that since global humanity acting through the UN was able to come together in the Montreal Protocol to solve the ozone crisis then it should be possible to repeat that success and solve the climate crisis in the same manner. As for the reasons for the failure of the UN to put together the Montreal Protocol of climate change they speculate that the barrier to global climate treaty like the Montreal Protocol is the influence of the political right in America and of science denial funded by fossil fuel interests. This simplistic analysis of the comparison of the ozone depletion and climate change issues overlooks important complexities that make the comparison impossible. The assumption of rapid response and solution to the ozone crisis in the absence of science denial is inconsistent with the history of the ozone crisis. This history reveals that climate change and ozone depletion do have something in common and that is an overbearing form of advocacy and activism that has been driven to fearmongering. The ozone story goes back to the 1960s when there was a plan to develop high altitude supersonic airliners. The high cruising altitude of the SST raised alarms that SSTs would cause both climate change and ozone depletion. The alarm related to chemicals and aerosols in SST exhaust and the science of their impact on the atmosphere. The climate change theory was quietly shelved and forgotten and the alarm later focused on ozone depletion with a forecast of 40,000 additional cases of skin cancer every year in the USA alone.

In 1971 a theory was proposed that Nitric oxide (NOx) in the SST jet exhaust will cause ozone depletion because NOx acts as a catalyst to destroy ozone according to computer models. The model forecast said that there will be a 50% ozone depletion and a worldwide epidemic of skin cancer. Animals that venture out during daylight will become blinded by UV radiation. Ozone science deniers pointed out that the ozone had survived the NOx in the fireball of open air nuclear tests, but by 1972, the ozone depletion activism against the SST had won and the SST program died because we were too frightened by the ozone depletion scare. 1972 was the first “Montreal Protocol”.

In 1973 fear mongering ozone depletion scientists turned their attention to the proposed Space Shuttle program. The shuttle design included two solid fuel rockets that emit hydrogen chloride (HCl) which the scientists said would cause ozone depletion. The space shuttle miraculously survived the 1973 scare but the ozone depletion game was now in full gear, having tasted the power of being able to inflict debilitating fear of ozone depletion.

1973: In a now famous paper {Lovelock, Maggs, and Wade 1973}, he presented the discovery that air samples above the Atlantic ocean far from human habitation contained measurable quantities of HHC. This was he first of three key events that led to the Montreal Protocol and its worldwide ban on the production, sale, and atmospheric release of HHC and the rise of the UN as a global environmental regulator.

1974 a new candidate of ozone depletion was identified. Environmentalist James Lovelock studied the unrestricted release of halogenated hydrocarbons (HHC) into the atmosphere from their use as aerosol dispensers, fumigants, pesticides, and refrigerants. {Halogenated hydrocarbons (HHC) are also described as HFC}. Lovelock was concerned that these chemicals were man-made and they did not otherwise occur in nature and that they were chemically inert and that therefore their atmospheric release could cause irreversible accumulation.

1974: Since HHCs were non-toxic and environmental science knew of no harmful effects of HHC, the environmental concern expressed in Lovelock etal 1973 about their accumulation in the atmosphere remained an academic curiosity. This changed in 1974 with the publication of a paper by Mario Molina and Frank Rowland in which is contained a theory of ozone depletion by HHC. According to the Rowland-Molina theory of ozone depletion (RMTOD), the extreme volatility and chemical inertness of the HHCs ensure that there is no natural sink for these chemicals in the troposphere and that therefore once emitted they may remain in the atmosphere for 40 to 150 years and be transported by diffusion and atmospheric motion to the stratospheric ozone layer where they are subjected to solar radiation at frequencies that will cause them to dissociate into chlorine atoms and free radicals. Chlorine atoms can then act as a catalytic agent of ozone destruction in a chemical reaction cycle described in the paper. It proposed that such ozone depletion by HHC poses a danger because the ozone layer protects life on the surface of the earth from the harmful effects of UVB radiation. The description in the source documents above states that Rowland and Molina, discovered that CFCs released from aerosol sprays could rise miles over our heads into the stratosphere and destroy ozone molecules.This statement is false. They did not” discover this relationship between CFCs and ozone. They proposed it as a theory. It required validation by empirical evidence.

1985: The RMTOD was later considered to have been validated with empirical evidence in a 1985 paper by Farman etal . “Large losses of total ozone in Antarctica reveal seasonal ClOx/NOx interaction J. C. Farman, B. G. Gardiner & J. D. Shanklin, Nature volume 315, pages207–210(1985) Abstract
Recent attempts to consolidate assessments of the effect of human activities on stratospheric ozone using one-dimensional models for 30° N have suggested that perturbations of total ozone will remain small for at least the next decade. Results from such models are often accepted by default as global estimates. The inadequacy of this approach is here made evident by observations that the spring values of total ozone in Antarctica have now fallen considerably. The circulation in the lower stratosphere is apparently unchanged, and possible chemical causes must be considered. We suggest that the very low temperatures which prevail from midwinter until several weeks after the spring equinox make the Antarctic stratosphere uniquely sensitive to growth of inorganic chlorine, ClX, primarily by the effect of this growth on the NO2/NO ratio. This, with the height distribution of UV irradiation peculiar to the polar stratosphere, could account for the O3 losses observed. This paper was the third and final key event in the sequence Lovelock to RMTOD to Farman, that led to the Montreal Protocol. It established that the atmospheric accumulation of HHC found by Lovelock (1) is not harmless by providing the RMTOD theoretical framework (2) that links HHC to ozone depletion and finally with the theory validated by empirical evidence in Farman etal.

THE MEDIA: The media then stepped in with an intensive exercise in fear based activism to promote compliance with the Montreal Protocol. Here are some examples: March 10 1987: Skin cancer is increasing in the United States at a near epidemic rate, outstripping predictions made as recently as five years ago, a research physician testified Monday before a House panel examining threats to the Earth’s protective ozone layer. Malignant melanoma, the deadliest form of skin cancer, has increased 83 percent in the last seven years alone. Melanoma is increasing faster than any other cancer except lung cancer in women.: March 12, 1987 Consensus among scientists: If harmful UV radiation reached the Earth, it would cause monumental problems, including rampant skin cancer and eye cataracts, retarded crop growth, impairment of the human immune system and damaging radiation doses to all forms of life. Although many Americans and the people of other nations are still not listening or taking the ozone threat seriously, the Earth’s protective shield is getting thinner and developing mysterious holes. There is a growing consensus among scientists that ozone destruction is caused by the accumulation in the upper atmosphere of chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), a class of industrial chemicals used for refrigerants, aerosols, insulation, foam packaging and other uses.: August 23, 1987: Ozone Hole: Scientists have begun the largest study ever of the depletion of the ozone layer in the atmosphere by sending a modified spy plane on missions 12 1/2 miles above Antarctica. The flights this past week were part of a $10-million project being carried out by a 120-member team of scientists, engineers and technicians who hope to decipher a mysterious ozone hole that has been detected over Antarctic each winter for the past eight years.

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CONCLUSION: THE OZONE CRISIS WAS A CREATION OF THE UNITED NATIONS UNEP PROGRAM AND IT SERVED TO EXTEND THE THE CHARTER OF THE UNITED NATIONS TO INCLUDE A ROLE AS GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL REGULATOR. BOTH THE OZONE DEPLETION CRISIS AND THE CLIMATE CRISIS ULTIMATELY SERVE ONLY THE NEEDS OF THE UN BUREAUCRACY. LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/03/18/the-eco-crisis-ambition-of-the-un/

Comment: The UN is unfit for the 21st century – The Update

Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC) - One Percent for the Planet

ABOUT THE NRDC

NRDC works to safeguard the earth—its people, its plants and animals, and the natural systems on which all life depends. We combine the power of more than three million members and online activists with the expertise of some 700 scientists, lawyers, and policy advocates across the globe to ensure the rights of all people to the air, the water, and the wild. {AN ADMISSION TO ACTIVSM BIAS}.

PDF) Scientists who become activists: are they crossing a line?

World carbon dioxide emissions data by country: China speeds ahead of the  rest | Environment | theguardian.com

THIS POST IS A GRAPHICAL SUMMARY OF PER CAPITA FOSSIL FUEL EMISSIONS BY COUNTRY AND ECONOMY TYPE. THE WORLD’S COUNTRIES ARE CATEGORIZED INTO FOUR ECONOMY TYPES. THESE ARE (1) TOURISM, (2) PETROLEUM PRODUCTION AND EXPORT, (3) INDUSTRIALIZED COUNTRIES, AND (4) DEVELOPING COUNTRIES AKA THE THIRD WORLD.

THIS CLASSIFICATION PROVIDES THE CONTEXT FOR UNDERSTANDING THE SOURCES OF EMISSIONS. FOR EXAMPLE, IN TOURISM ECONOMIES, THE EMISSIONS ARE MOSTLY OF TOURISTS FROM RICH INDUSTRIALIZED COUNTRIIES WITH THE PER CAPITA COMPUTATION BASED ON A SMALL PERMANENT POPULATION; AND IN PETROLEUM ECONOMIES, THE EMISSIONS ARE MOSTLY FROM PRODUCTION AND NOT FROM CONSUMPTION.

PER CAPITA EMISSION DATA ARE PRESENTED BELOW IN UNITS OF TONNES PER YEAR PER PERSON.

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CHART#1: AVERAGE PER CAPITA EMISSON OF EACH ECONOMY TYPE.

Palolem Stock Photos, Images & Photography | Shutterstock
BEACH FRONT VACATION COTTAGES IN A TOURISM ECONOMY

CHART#2: PER CAPITA EMISSIONS OF TOURISM ECONOMIES

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CHART#3: PER CAPITA EMISSIONS OF PETROLEUM ECONOMIES

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CHART#4: PER CAPITA EMISSIONS OF INDUSTRIAL ECONOMIES

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CHART#5: PER CAPITA EMISSIONS OF DEVELOPING ECONOMIES

The Future of Driving in Developing Countries | RAND

SUMMARY TABLE HIGHLIGHTING MIN-MAX VALUES

Global CO2 Emissions to Hit Record High in 2017 | InsideClimate News

COMMENTARY

The comparison of fossil fuel emissions of different countries often arises in the context of anthropogenic global warming and climate change. Here we present these per capita emission data classified by economy type. Four economy types are identified in the data. They are 40 tourism economies, 16 petroleum economies, 57 industrial economies, and 98 developing economies. The data are presented graphically above in Chart#2 to Chart#5.

The average per capita emission of these economies in metric tonnes per person are compared in Chart#1 above. Here we find that on a per capita basis petroleum production and export economies have the highest per capita emissions and developing countries the lowest. An oddity is the tourism economy that derives its income mostly from tourists from industrialized countries, comes in second ahead of industrial economies. The other oddity is that the emissions of the petroleum exporters derives from the demand from petroleum products mostly in industrialized countries. These intricate relationships may imply that it may not be possible to understand global emissions in terms of countries.

The variance in per capita emissions among the countries within each economy type shows yet another oddity of the tourism economy. Here we find that the tourism economy has the highest variance among countries in the economy. A peculiarity of the tourism economy is that they are typically small island states with a small resident population but typically with the population at any given time dominated by tourists and their variable emissions distributed on a per capita basis among the small permanent population. This is the likely explanation for the highest observed per capita emission of 58 tonnes found in the tourism economy where the range goes from 0.3 tonnes to 58 tonnes.

The petroleum economy that shows the highest per capita emissions also shows the highest minimum emissions at the country level but not the highest maximum emissions. That honor goes to the tourism economy.

This image has an empty alt attribute; its file name is maxima.png
Palolem Stock Photos, Images & Photography | Shutterstock

CONCLUSION: The per capita emission data are best understood when segregated into economy types with the statistical details of the data in addition to the mean.

For example, when assessing the relative position of China, we find in the data for industrialized economies in Chart#4 above that its per capita emissions of 8 tonnes appears to be somewhat higher than the mean of 7.52 tonnes for industrial economies, but in the context of the standard deviation of 3.43, that difference is not statistically significant. Therefore China can be considered to be average for industrial economies in terms of fossil fuel emissions. Chart#4 above shows that the outliers among industrial economies are Taiwan, South Korea, the USA, and Luxembourg with per capita emissions of 12 tonnes and higher.

Similarly, as seen in Chart#5 above, India’s emission of 1.9 tonnes per person is on the the low end in this category where the leaders from Indonesia to Thailand show per capita emissions of 2.5 to 6.5 tonnes per person. The comparison of emissions by country must first remove the size effect because size does not contain information about the mechanisms that need to be changed for emission reduction. And secondly, the comparison cannot be made across the board because of differences among economy types.

We suggest that emission comparison among countries must be made among countries in the same economic group and the effect of the size of the country must be removed by comparing per capita emission. Important and useful insights are gained in this kind of analysis that is missing in across the board total emissions among countries. The insight into the peculiarities of tourism economies, for example, provide insight into what governs their emissions and how these emissions compare with other economies and countries.

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chicken-little-the-sky-is-falling - Communities Digital News

THE GUARDIAN: LINK: https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/nov/15/scientists-link-record-breaking-hurricane-season-to-climate-crisis CLIMATE CHANGE CAUSES RECORD BREAKING HURRICANE SEASON IN 2020.

CHICKEN LITTLE WAS AN OPTIMIST | RANDOM THOUGHTS

CLAIM: Evidence is not so much in the number of tropical storms the Atlantic has seen, but in their strength. Hurricane Mitch in 1998 was the most destructive storm to hit Central America. But hundreds of thousands of subsistence farmers across the region have lost everything in flooding caused by Eta, which made landfall in Nicaragua as a category 4 hurricane on 3 November. Now, with a second hurricane projected to make landfall on Monday near where Eta did, even more could find themselves in the same situation. Climate scientists say that this year’s record-breaking hurricane season and the “unprecedented” double blow for Central America has a clear link to the climate crisis. In a 36-hour period Hurricane Eta went from a depression to a very strong category 4. This is just not normal. Probably it was the fastest spin up from a depression to a major hurricane in history. The evidence of the influence of the climate crisis is not so much in the record-breaking 30 tropical storms in the Atlantic so far this year, but the strength, rapid intensification and total rainfall of these weather systems. The warmer ocean waters that climate change brings are expected to make storms stronger and make them rapidly intensify more frequently and at a greater rate. These things have already been observed, particularly in the Atlantic, and it’s going to be increasingly so in coming decades. Central America has been one of the regions most affected by the climate crisis to date, first with Hurricane Mitch, and in recent years with more extreme weather patterns, particularly in what’s known as the dry corridor, which extends from northern Costa Rica all the way to southern Mexico. Heat is energy, depending on the prevailing weather conditions will intensify those conditions. People are dying! This is how the climate crisis has sparked an exodus from Central America to the US. In the dry corridor, that has meant more frequent, prolonged and intense droughts as well as heavier rainfall when it does come, often causing flash flooding that washes away crops. Subsistence farmers in the region have struggled to adapt to the new reality, and many in the region have simply given up and left. The climate crisis – and the hunger it brings – is increasingly being recognized as a major driver of emigration from the region. There aren’t a lot of options for Central America to deal with the global warming issue. There are going to be a lot migrants and in fact, a lot of the migration that’s already happening in recent years is due to the drought that started affecting Central America back in 2015. Hondurans migrated to the US in significant numbers for the first time following Hurricane Mitch. In the year before the Covid-19 pandemic, more than 250,000 Hondurans were apprehended at the US south-west border, more than double any previous year and surpassed only by its neighbor to the north, Guatemala. According to the Red Cross, at least 2.5 million people were affected by Hurricane Eta, including 1.7 million in Honduras. Many who have lost everything are already considering or making plans to migrate to the US and groups are beginning to organize caravans via social media. Unable to fulfill the needs of their citizens before the pandemic. The economic downturn has stretched the finances of Central American governments to the brink. And unlike following previous natural disasters, the international community is dealing with pandemic-related problems of its own and is unlikely to step in to fill the gap. Hurricane Iota could lead to even more widespread devastation across the region. Many areas still have high water levels from Eta, levees have been damaged or destroyed, dams are at or near capacity, and the saturated land could lead to more landslides like in Guatemala, where dozens are feared dead after part of a mountainside community was buried in mud. The Atlantic hurricane season is expected to last until December this year, meaning that Iota might not be the last. When a season like 2020 keeps on cranking these things out, it’s going to keep on doing that.

The Sky is Falling” Chicken Little – Manzanillo Sun

RESPONSE: Climate science has used a large number of climate model simulations to project the possible impacts of global warming on tropical cyclones. What they have concluded from these studies is that (1) global warming will cause higher sea surface temperature (SST) and the higher SST in turn will increase the amount of energy in tropical cyclones. Therefore global warming will cause the ACE cyclone intensity measure, accumulated cyclone energy, to rise over time as the globe warms.

Thomas Knutson
DR. THOMAS KNUTSON, NOAA

The details of these expected impacts are described in the research paper Tropical cyclones and climate change, Nature Geoscience 3.3 (2010): 157-163. In the paper, Tom Knutson spells out exactly what climate science claims in terms of the impact of AGW climate change on tropical cyclones with climate model predictions of the effect of rising SST on tropical cyclones.

His main points are as follows: (1) Globally averaged intensity of tropical cyclones will rise as AGW increases SST. Models predict globally averaged intensity increase of 2% to 11% by 2100. (2). Models predict falling globally averaged frequency of tropical cyclones with frequency decreasing 6%-34% by 2100. (3). The globally averaged frequency of “most intense tropical cyclones” should increase as a result of AGW. The intensity of tropical cyclones is measured as the ACE (Accumulated Cyclone Energy). (4). Models predict increase in precipitation within a 100 km radius of the storm center. A precipitation rise of 20% is projected for the year 2100. (5) Extremely high natural variability in tropical cyclone data at an annual time scale requires longer, perhaps a decadal time scale in the study of these trends. (6) Model projections for individual cyclone basins show large large natural variability from year to year. (7) Model projections also show large natural variability among the cyclone basins in any cyclone season. (8) Thus, no testable implication can be derived for studies of individual basins or of a single cyclone season.

The faulty science, doomism, and flawed conclusions of Deep Adaptation |  openDemocracy

IN THIS CONTEXT OF THE CLIMATE SCIENCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONES, WE DO EXPECT AN IMPACT OF GLOBAL WARMING ON TROPICAL CYCLONES, BUT THE DATA SERVE AS EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE OF SUCH IMPACTS ONLY WHEN ALL SIX CYCLONE BASINS ARE STUDIED OVER MANY DECADES.

NO INFORMATION ABOUT THE IMPACT OF GLOBAL WARMING ON TROPICAL CYCLONES CAN BE FOUND IN THE DATA FOR A SINGLE CYCLONE BASIN NOR IN THE DATA FOR A SINGLE CYCLONE SEASON, MUCH LESS THE DATA FOR A SINGLE CYCLONE SEASON IN A SINGLE CYCLONE BASIN. THE STUDY OF THE 2020 HURRICANE SEASON IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC CYCLONE BASIN IS THUS FOUND TO BE FLAWED.

THE FINDINGS PRESENTED IN THE CLIMATE CHANGE ALARM ABOVE ARE REJECTED ON THIS BASIS.

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RELATED POSTS ON TROPICAL CYCLONES

LINK#1: https://tambonthongchai.com/2018/11/28/trends-in-tropical-cyclone-activity/ 

LINK#2: https://tambonthongchai.com/2019/03/22/ace-sst/ 

LINK#3: https://tambonthongchai.com/2019/04/04/1737/ LINK#4: https://tambonthongchai.com/2019/08/01/tropical-cyclones-climate-change/ 

LINK#5: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/03/04/agwcyclones/

Development of tropical cyclones - Met Office

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TREE PLANTING FOR THE CLIMATE IN THE WEST AND FOR THE $$$ IN THE THE THIRD WORLD. MOST OF THE PLANTING IS IN THE GLOBAL SOUTH. IN THE GLOBAL NORTH THE LEADERS ARE THE USA, SPAIN, AND FRANCE. ALSO CANADA, THE UK, AND GERMANY.

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HERE ARE THE TREE PLANTING LEADERS OF THE WORLD: LINK TO SOURCE: https://www.uniguide.com/countries-planting-the-most-trees/

COUNTRYTREES PLANTED%IMPACT
China2,407,149,4930.080238%
India2,159,420,8980.071981%
Ethiopia1,725,350,2340.057512%
Pakistan1,006,776,7240.033559%
Mexico789,307,0320.026310%
Turkey711,103,0880.023703%
Peru646,502,2360.021550%
Nigeria626,725,6670.020891%
Kenya534,680,6090.017823%
United States315,586,9820.010520%
Ghana220,571,2080.007352%
Italy211,269,2110.007042%
Myanmar192,154,9350.006405%
Philippines187,393,3710.006246%
Tanzania159,635,6540.005321%
Brazil144,078,2450.004803%
Cuba137,476,9440.004583%
Canada137,302,1210.004577%
Algeria128,124,5200.004271%
Burundi119,430,6690.003981%
Indonesia115,216,8830.003841%
Spain107,675,5570.003589%
Romania66,578,3660.002219%
South Korea58,725,8590.001958%
France40,510,6310.001350%
Estonia39,009,2360.001300%
Venezuela36,702,9570.001223%
Azerbaijan34,382,2120.001146%
Afghanistan34,019,2330.001134%
Benin30,742,9920.001025%
Morocco28,004,5590.000933%
Costa Rica25,518,6820.000851%
Belgium23,785,8800.000793%
Uganda21,866,9600.000729%
Tunisia21,008,7350.000700%
Senegal20,134,7020.000671%
Paraguay20,009,3950.000667%
Chile18,013,1320.000600%
Guatemala16,607,0810.000554%
United Kingdom14,550,5070.000485%
Japan14,093,5130.000470%
Colombia13,795,0020.000460%
Norway12,788,6110.000426%
Sri Lanka12,242,8590.000408%
Sierra Leone12,002,6620.000400%
Australia11,908,1340.000397%
Malaysia10,652,5290.000355%
Iraq10,241,0910.000341%
Thailand9,026,1740.000301%
Ecuador8,924,6260.000297%
Egypt8,542,5810.000285%
Germany8,523,6870.000284%
Taiwan7,642,0990.000255%
Panama7,265,4560.000242%
Bangladesh6,902,5280.000230%
Cameroon6,584,7450.000219%
Guinea6,566,4060.000219%
Nicaragua6,425,8100.000214%
Argentina6,157,3860.000205%
Gambia5,021,9000.000167%
Kyrgyzstan5,000,0000.000167%
South Africa4,862,9970.000162%
Austria4,574,9010.000152%
United Arab Emirates4,225,5760.000141%
Israel4,110,4510.000137%
Congo-Brazzaville3,962,3890.000132%
Nepal3,575,1970.000119%
Malawi3,330,8220.000111%
Zambia3,298,3440.000110%
Jordan2,607,8030.000087%
Armenia2,368,6410.000079%
Poland2,340,7310.000078%
Timor-Leste2,155,0000.000072%
Sweden2,126,5610.000071%
Albania2,045,3000.000068%
New Zealand1,970,3740.000066%
Portugal1,655,5750.000055%
Congo-Kinshasa1,554,3530.000052%
Mali1,516,1530.000051%
Ireland1,464,9080.000049%
Madagascar1,423,3850.000047%
Rwanda1,404,0810.000047%
Netherlands1,301,8000.000043%
Laos1,166,2490.000039%
Mozambique1,127,1830.000038%
Fiji1,077,8970.000036%
Mongolia1,041,3760.000035%
Turkmenistan880,0010.000029%
Cambodia833,5820.000028%
Burkina Faso693,3550.000023%
Montenegro650,8370.000022%
Bolivia639,2980.000021%
Sudan610,9810.000020%
Mauritius561,8850.000019%
Mauritania475,2300.000016%
Serbia424,4520.000014%
Haiti423,2430.000014%
Zimbabwe408,3560.000014%
Togo367,1650.000012%
Brunei336,4590.000011%
TOTAL13,593,004,0900.45310%
TREES CUT50000000000.166667%
NET GAIN8,593,004,0900.286433%
YEARS TO BREAK EVEN349 YEARS
Dialing For Dollars | KARK

LINK TO POST ON THE CARBON CREDITS MARKET: https://tambonthongchai.com/2019/09/30/cer/

EXCERPT: Carbon credits are created by the combination of permits, offsets, and tradability. The permit is permission granted to a country, company or organization to produce a certain amount of emissions any portion of which can then be sold in the carbon credits market if not used. A complexity in the carbon trading scheme is the offset provision. It provides an incentive to firms or countries with no emission reduction obligation to invest in climate action the net effect of which may be sold to countries, firms, or individuals to cancel out a portion of their emissions. This provision is commonly seen in air travel where airlines buy offsets that cancel out the emissions from a flight and then sell the offset to passengers who wish to be carbon neutral. However, unlike the emission trading in the acid rain program, the climate change implementation of what appears to be the same provision is less well defined and vastly more complicated. First, there is no well defined legal superstructure for its regulation and implementation such that the structure and procedures are poorly defined and poorly regulated. Secondly, the emission problem to be solved by emission trading is poorly defined.

Climate change solutions: forest restoration might be one of the best ways  to fight climate change - Vox

A specific issue pointed out in [Sovacool, “Four Problems with Global Carbon Markets, Energy & Environment, Vol. 22, No. 6 (2011), pp. 681-694] is non-linearity. As described in related posts on this site, a complexity with the carbon budget is that the remaining carbon budget cannot be computed by subtraction or by linear proportionality but must be recomputed because of the non-linearity of the progression of the carbon budget through the time span of its implementation  [LINK] [LINK] . Yet carbon credit trading and carbon offset markets necessarily assume a linear relationship. Therefore the basis of the pricing changes over the time span of the credit but the pricing does not. In “Why are carbon markets failing? The Guardian, Fri 12 Apr 2013, Steffen Böhm, Professor of management and sustainability at Essex Business School points out the absence of government and regulatory oversight with well defined rules and definitions and their enforcement in the emission trading system of the carbon credit market. As pointed out above in the comparison with the Acid Rain Program, although the carbon credit market is derived from a comparison with the Acid Rain Program, the parallel is lacking the the well defined legal and governance superstructure that oversaw and ensured the success of the acid rain program. Dr. Böhm thus describes the carbon credit and offset market as inefficient and corrupt and says that the carbon trading system has failed citing these structural deficiencies as reasons for its failure.
The essential problem here, not just in the carbon credits market, but in the entire enterprise for saving the planet with climate action, is that the government, regulatory, legal, and management superstructure is the United Nations which sees itself as the EPA of the world in the comparison with the Acid Rain Program but it is not the EPA and has none of the EPA’s governance and regulatory powers, skills, and ability that made the acid rain program a success. This is the fundamental flaw in the assumed parallel between the acid rain program and the carbon credits market.
It is precisely this absence of governance and regulatory oversight that things like the Shell offset story can happen [Shell will spend $300 million to offset carbon emissions. Here’s the catch, By Akshat Rathi, Quartz, April 10, 2019]. Here Mr. Rathi reports that Shell sells carbon offsets to its customers in the Netherlands and uses those proceeds to buy carbon credits at the carbon credits market. If the carbon credits were truly a reduction that could be checked and verified and overseen by a professional body such as the EPA, it may have some validity but what we have is a dysfunctional bureaucracy at the UN as the sole governing and regulatory body of the carbon credits market. This regulatory vacuum also explains the ability of logging companies who plant and harvest trees anyway to sell carbon credits every time they plant. And in terms of climate action carbon budgets, the emission reduction in the books contains carbon credits purchased by Annex1 countries from dubious projects in nonAnnex countries such as the alleged “preservation” of forests that probably would have been there anyway.

When Nations Get Busy Planting Trees – Plant With Purpose

Café Bambi - โพสต์ | Facebook

The Disney movie Bambi gave rise to what is known as the Bambi Principle in environmentalism. It extended the concept of environmentalism, as in do no harm, to a role of humans as caretaker of nature. The following article explains how Bambi did that. It is provided by Arizona State University: LINK: https://www.zocalopublicsquare.org/2016/04/19/how-bambi-hoodwinked-american-environmentalists-2/ideas/nexus/ (edited and abbreviated)

Disney เดินหน้าพัฒนาโพรเจกต์ Bambi เวอร์ชันภาพยนตร์ : ได้มือเขียนบท Captain  Marvel มาร่วมทีม | #beartai
  1. A man who had gone deer hunting and a number of does strolled from the woods into the meadow. Joe tried to pick out the fattest doe to shoot but his wife was overcome with the Bambi image she remembered from the movie and it brought her to tears. The hunt was abandoned. These contradictory responses derive from the lingering power of of the Bambi principle – a 1942 Disney cartoon about that big-eyed fawn, so cute that even 74 years later, Bambi still animates debates over animal rights and environmentalism such that saving Bambi has now been extended to saving the planet.
  2. Bambi didn’t start as an American environmental fable. It recounts the story of a fawn who grows up to be the prince of the forest alongside his royal father. But his rise to power comes only after the death of his mother and near loss of his mate Faline. While hunters and predatory animals are a problem for these deer, in the forest, owls eat mice, crows eat a friendly rabbit, and a fox eats a duck but these images are antithetical to the Bambi Principle of environmentalism. Early reviewers had thought that Bambi was anti-fascist fable and recent writers thought that the story was an allegory about the plight of the Jews in Europe.
  3. By 1942, when Disney released the film, Americans were processing their shock at the attack on Pearl Harbor and our entrance into a world war, which is reflected in the film’s simplified portrayal of deer living in an idealized forest where predators and prey play together and fear only a shadowy character called “Man,” who is equipped with guns and fire.
The Surprisingly Relevant Legacy Of 'Bambi' 75 Years Later
  1. The emotional punch of Bambi is heightened by the artistry, which combines gorgeous natural realism with cartoonish animals, their exceptionally large heads, small noses, and wide eyes resembling human children. Disney gave Bambi playful friends like the rabbit Thumper and the skunk Flower, in contrast to the more melancholy, quarrelsome animals of the book. Even though these cartoon animals frolic to the tune of “Little April Shower,” Disney paid special attention to the details of the forest, sending artists to sketch foliage in Baxter State Park and shipping two fawns to the studio as artist’s models. This uncanny mix of cuteness and terror and fantasy and realism has led some to call it a horror film.

When it was released the Bambi movie was surprisingly controversial. Hunters saw it as an ideological threat. Outdoor Life editor Raymond J. Brown called the film “the worst insult ever offered in any form to American sportsmen,” and even asked Disney to correct slurs against hunters. Disney said that sportsmen were not the target because Salten’s story was about German hunters.

Bambi had fans too. In a July 1942 issue of Audubon Magazine, naturalist Donald Culross Peattie “hotly denies” that Bambi “misrepresented anything.” That same year the National Audubon Society compared the cartoon’s consciousness-raising power for the environment to what Uncle Tom’s Cabin did for the abolition of slavery. New York Times reviewer Theodore Strauss claimed Disney films “teach us variously about having a fundamental respect for nature. Bambi inspired conservation awareness and laid the emotional groundwork for environmental activism.

The Latest Release of 'Bambi' Brings the Film to Life in a Whole New Way -  The Mickey Mindset

When it was first released, Bambi lost money, but subsequent re-releases in theatres and video rentals brought in close to $300 million by 1988 as the film had become a rite of childhood. And over the years that “emotional groundwork,” took hold in the form of “The Bambi Factor, or The Bambi Principle” a sentimental anthropomorphized view of wildlife.

One of the first people bitten by the Bambi Factor was environmentalist Aldo Leopold. In 1943, Leopold encouraged Wisconsin to institute an antlerless deer season that would have allowed hunters to shoot does and young bucks to thin the overpopulated herd. Leopold was interested in the good of all life as part of an ecosystem, not just special animals. In his Sand County Almanac, Leopold extends ethics to include nonhuman animals, as well as the plant life that sustains them. For the new converted Leopold the Bambi Principle holds that “the individual is a member of a community of interdependent parts, and those parts include all elements of the natural environment, from soil and plants to “Bambi.”

A graduate of the Yale forestry school, Leopold promoted game management, evolutionary biology, and ecology, rather than sentimental anthropomorphism. To maintain a diverse ecology, Leopold supported regulated sport hunting, including shooting a limited number of Wisconsin’s does with the aim of keeping the herd size smaller. But his Wisconsin proposal was shot down—the public, according to scholar Ralph H. Lutts, was outraged at the idea of culling any of Bambi’s child-like creatures.

Frank Churchill, Larry Morey - Bambi (An Original Walt Disney Records  Soundtrack) - Amazon.com Music

There is another environmental ideology hidden in Bambi that’s at odds with reality. Bambi’s underlying message is that Man and deer can’t co-exist. Of all the creatures in the movie, only the humans disrupt the pristine view of nature. “Why did we all run?” Bambi asks after a gun shot sounds. “Man was in the forest,” his mother replies. A later gunshot is the end of Bambi’s mother, hiding the violence that is heightened by her absence. Other hunters go on a chilling rampage, wounding Bambi and causing a final eco-disaster when their campfire explodes and burns down the forest destroying the animals’ home. The fire effects light the scene in oranges and reds, in the spirit of the “Burning of Atlanta” scene in Gone with the Wind. In the context of Disney’s film version of Bambi, humans and their vicious dogs are evil shadowy harbingers of death destroying an idealized paradise.

Bambi- The Fire Scene - YouTube

In the movie, the forest is presented as a kind of idealized human-free world where nature can frolic. Unless humans arrive, animals of all species live without fear in a “paradise” untouched by human hands where even owls have morphed into vegetarians. Here all interaction with humans, and only with humans, end in death or suffering. There is a complete separation of nature into two worlds – humans and humanless nature.

The big question in modern environmentalism extended into the Anthropocene, a paradise lost, where humans are in control of the planet. In many ways, Bambi played a role in the more modern concept of an ecosystem that does not contain humans but one which must be managed by humans. This view is in contrast with the earlier movie Mr Bug Goes to Town that presents a peaceful coexistence between man and beast. Despite the anthropomorphism in the movie, Mr. Bug’s focus on interdependence presents a more realistic view.

MrBug3

Bambi lovers want to protect the deer even when the deer are sick. As recently as 2012, naturalist Valerie Blaine blamed the Bambi Principle for the North Rutland Deer Alliance’s opposition to killing deer even to test for chronic wasting disease. The Bambi Principle encourages sentimentalized and unrealistic views of wildlife that romanticize nature. With its vast and varied ecologies.

America’s myth is that it is both a frontier to be conquered and an Eden to be preserved, but there’s more to living on this planet than choosing between paradise and a parking lot. Bambi presents us with a powerful but flawed vision of nature that draws a line between us and them. Instead of looking for a paradise that separates us from wild nature, we need to find a new vision that stresses that to live together as different parts of nature.

Mr. Bug" and "Hoppity" Go To Town -

The Climate Crisis Is Mind-Boggling. That's Why We Need Science Fiction. -  In These Times

ALARM#1: Governments urged to go beyond net zero climate targets
Leading scientists and campaigners say cutting emissions alone is not enough
. THE GUARDIAN: LINK: https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/nov/13/governments-urged-to-go-beyond-net-zero-climate-targets

Leading scientists, academics and campaigners have called on governments and businesses to go beyond “net zero” in their efforts to tackle the escalating climate and ecological crisis. The former archbishop of Canterbury Rowan Williams and the leading climate scientist Michael Mann are among a group of prominent environmentalists calling for the “restoration of the climate” by removing “huge amounts of greenhouse gases from the atmosphere”. Net zero targets have been a focus of governments, local authorities and campaigners in their attempts to address global heating. Although stopping emissions is “a necessary prerequisite”, governments and businesses must be more ambitious and work to “restore the climate” to as safe a level as possible. The climate crisis is here now. No matter how quickly we reach zero emissions, the terrible impacts of the climate crisis will not just go away … As such, no matter how quickly it is done, solely cutting emissions is not enough. The idea of removing emissions from the atmosphere – either directly from the air or by capturing it from power plants – has been a strongly debated subject among environmentalists and engineers for years. Critics point out that it has proved difficult to replicate the technology at scale and that constructing the necessary machinery would itself be environmentally damaging. Many fear that the idea of carbon capture is a “technological fix” used as an excuse by corporations which are opposed to the radical changes needed to move to a zero-carbon economy. However, there is a growing body of evidence that natural solutions – protecting and restoring natural forests and habitats and allowing native trees to repopulate deforested land – could help remove large amounts of carbon. The letter, which is also signed by the Guardian columnist George Monbiot and several leading members of the global school climate strike movement, said their call for restoration was not about “promoting one specific removal technique, but supporting the basic aim of trying to restore the climate and urges activists to start including restoration in their campaigning. We urge governments and companies to start acting, not only to reach net zero as soon as possible, but to achieve restoration as well. And we urge every citizen to do what they can to make the dream of restoration a reality.

George Monbiot on U.K. Climate Emergency & the Need for Rebellion to  Prevent Ecological Apocalypse | Democracy Now!

RESPONSE TO ALARM#1: That achieving net zero is not enough and that we should go beyond that and use forest restoration to remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere is a contradiction. The term “NET ZERO” means that it is not necessary to reduce fossil fuels to zero emissions because the remaining fossil fuel emissions can be offset by human interventions in nature’s carbon cycle such that the net emissions of the industrial economy is zero on the emissions ledger. LINK TO RELATED POST ON NET ZERO: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/02/25/net-zero/

The other issue here is that eco whackos that oppose human interventions in nature at the same time assume that humans are the managers of nature and that therefore human interventions in nature are necessary to manage nature. As for the the change in language from GLOBAL WARMING to GLOBAL HEATING, kindly note that that the word HEAT is used in climatology only to describe a rise in temperature of 4C above long term averages and climate scientists say that so far global warming has caused a warming of 1C above pre-industrial although they are not sure exactly when pre-industrial is. LINK TO RELATED POST : https://tambonthongchai.com/2019/12/25/earth-day-wisdom/

If the weather in England is bothering you, come on down to Thailand where the weather is just fine as you can see in the image below.

Cow And Sugar Palm At Phetchaburi Thailand Stock Photo - Download Image Now  - iStock

ALARM#2: TVO.ORG: What these 58 Ontario lakes can teach us about climate change: LINK: https://www.tvo.org/article/what-these-58-ontario-lakes-can-teach-us-about-climate-change

Scott Higgins, a scientist with the Experimental Lakes Area, has data on what a 50 years of research reveals about climate change. Published on Sep 16, 2019. He is part of International Institute for Sustainable Development. TVO.ORG says that they are doing this story to strengthen coverage of the climate.​​​​​​​ Between Kenora and Dryden, there are 58 small lakes set aside exclusively for scientific research. Called the Experimental Lakes Area — and, since 2014, managed by the International Institute for Sustainable Development — the region has been the subject of scientific examination since 1968. The IISD calls the lakes “the world’s freshwater laboratory” and “one of the only places” on Earth where researchers can conduct experiments on entire ecosystems. Scientists introduce species and other variables to the waters and study everything from algal blooms to mercury poisoning to oil spills. The program serves as an invaluable resource for scientists studying climate change. Using a half-century of rigorous data, IISD researchers have found that the higher temperatures and increased precipitation associated with climate change are affecting northern Ontario’s lakes and watersheds. How does the ELA ensure that the data it collects is accurate and useful? Whenever you do an experiment in a lab — or, in our case, in the natural environment — you need references or controls. So they set aside a number of lakes to be “reference lakes,” where no manipulations were done. When we’re understanding the impacts of climate, what we’re doing is using five lakes that haven’t been manipulated but that we’ve monitored very intensively. They weren’t designed to monitor climate change, but, over 50 years, the data we’ve created and the intensity of that data have made those data sets incredibly useful. We have an onsite meteorological station, which we’ve operated with Environment Canada since 1969, where we get all the standard meteorological data, and it’s within the watershed of one of our lakes, so it’s less than a kilometre away from our reference lakes. There, we get air temperatures, rainfall, barometric pressure, solar radiance, wind speeds, and the nutrients that are in the rain. You point out that, in the region more broadly, air temperature is rising five times faster than the global average. How has that affected the ELA?
The surprising thing to me and to many when we look at the data is when you hear air temperatures are increasing, we make the unconscious assumption that it’s evenly distributed across the seasons. What the data says is that the winter’s warming much, much faster than the summer is. In our data, the summer isn’t even significantly increasing. I suspect that, over time, the summers will become significantly warmer, but the big changes are occurring in the winter and the shoulder seasons. December, for example, was increasing by over a degree per decade — so, much faster than the mean trends. Right now, it affects the phenology of the ice. When the ice forms in the fall and when it melts in the spring, those dates are significantly changing. The period of ice cover is shortening dramatically. ELA research shows that average annual precipitation has increased by 19.1 millimetres per decade since 1970. What impact has that had? The big story is that we’re seeing more dissolved organic carbon coming off the watersheds in the wetlands and moving into these lakes. Dissolved organic carbon stains the water a tea colour from the acids that are associated with wetlands and these soils. As more DOC comes into the lake, you lose transparency. That’s when you step into a lake and you can’t see your feet after the first foot or two in the water. That affects things that depend on light to grow, like plants, and those are the base of the food web. We’ve looked at the whole range of lakes in the region — the clear lakes and the really dark lakes — and asked how it affected the physical properties and the chemical properties. In our darkest lakes, plants can only grow in the top four to five metres, but, in our clearest lakes, they can grow down to 20 metres or more, so you lose three-quarters of your habitat in that range. We have a study that’s just wrapping up right now. Essentially, what they’re finding is that the changes in dissolved organic matter have a strong impact over primary production, which is plant growth: the base of the food web. Climate change is making our watersheds more sensitive to land use, so, as we move into the future, we’re really going to have to think about how we manage and use these watersheds appropriately, because it can lead to these very costly issues around algae blooms. The City of Winnipeg is talking about spending upwards of $1.4 billion on upgrading its north-end sewage-treatment plant. The main purpose is to reduce these algal blooms in lake Winnipeg. You’ve noticed that lake trout are shrinking in size as their habitat changes. Can you explain why that’s happening? We think it’s related not to the changes in surface-water temperatures, because, remember, our summer air temperatures haven’t changed very much. But what has changed is that the summer period has gotten longer — what we call the “summer starvation period” for lake trout. Lake trout feed intensively in the spring and fall when water temperatures are mesothermal — they’re the same from top to bottom because it’s mixing. As the summer gets longer, that summer starvation period gets longer. Then the thermocline [the water temperature gradient] starts to deepen over time, and this anoxic zone [an area uninhabitable because of low oxygen levels] at the bottom of these lakes creeps up. Habitat becomes unavailable for lake trout. And, if the summer gets longer and longer, the higher temperature and the lower oxygen will overlap, so there will be no optimum habitat for lake trout. What lake trout have to do is decide, “Am I going to live in a sub-optimal oxygen habitat, or am I going to live in a sub-optimal temperature habitat?” No matter what they choose, there’s an impact on their metabolism, and growth rates will slow. We believe we’re seeing the first indications of that in the lake trout data. They’re getting shorter in length and skinnier in size. The ELA is in the southern section of the Boreal Shield Ecozone, which stretches from Saskatchewan to Newfoundland. What do your findings tell us about the ecozone as a whole? Boreal lakes are both carbon sinks and carbon emitters. It’s the biggest ecozone on the planet, so it plays an important role in the global carbon balance. We talked about how increases in rainfall push dissolved organic carbon from wetlands into the lake. Once that carbon goes into the lake, some of that carbon sinks to the bottom and becomes permanently buried in the sediments. That’s how lakes are carbon sinks. But a portion of that carbon gets worked over by bacteria and respired up to the atmosphere, so that carbon dioxide is a greenhouse gas that contributes to global warming in a positive feedback loop. More rainfall means more carbon-dioxide emissions from lakes, even though lakes are net carbon sinks. As Canada moves forward to reduce its carbon emissions to do its part in reducing climate change, what happens in the boreal zone is also really important because it could dwarf all those efforts. We need to be able to model how carbon fluxes in the boreal forest. That’s important to every Canadian and everyone around the planet,

RESPONSE TO ALARM#2: The region under study is about 20,000 square kilometers at about 50 degrees north latitude. In terms of the area, this region represents 0.0037% of the land area of the earth and about 0.0011% of the total area of the earth. The geographical limitations of this study make it impossible to relate the findings to global warming because it is known under such geographical limitations, Internal Climate Variability (ICV) makes it impossible to detect global warming because “Internal variability in the climate system confounds assessment of human-induced climate change and imposes irreducible limits on the accuracy of climate change projections”. The ICV issue is described in detail in a related post on this site: LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/07/16/the-internal-variability-issue/ .

Yet another issue with this research is the methodology used in which the researcher looks for things that have changed and assumes that the change must have been caused by anthropogenic global warming. Such causation cannot be assumed, they must be established by he data and critical evaluation of the data with the null hypothesis that the observed changes are natural. Such standard research procedures are absent in this study.

A third issue is that the IISD (International Institute for Sustainable Development) is a UN organization and part of the UN’s SDG program (Sustainable Development Goals) that is part and parcel of the UN’s climate change and climate action program. The SDG is an entirely bureaucratic tool as described in these related posts: LINK#1: https://tambonthongchai.com/2019/03/06/sdg/ LINK#2: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/03/18/the-eco-crisis-ambition-of-the-un/ . That the Canadian research project is part of the SDG program is not serve to validate its scientific credentials.

I remember we used to travel to Dryden and Kenora to go to the dentist  (1960 or so). "Map with driving directions. Note all … | Lake hudson, Eagle  lake, Pine island

ALARM#3: GUARDIAN: LINK: https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/oct/12/climate-crisis-campaigns-pledge-real-change

Why the green movement can overcome climate crisis

Leaded petrol, acid rain, CFCs … the last 50 years of environmental action have shown how civil society can force governments and business to change. “Leaflets printed on grotty blue paper” is how Janet Alty describes the successful campaign against leaded gasoline. In the late 1970s, the UK was still poisoning the air with leaded gasoline despite clear scientific evidence that breathing in lead-tainted air from car exhausts has detrimental effects on development and intelligence. Lead had been phased out in the US from 1975 for these reasons. In the UK, the anti lead campaign amassed a trove of scientific papers to support their cause and finally after months of an agitated citizens uprising against leaded gasoline the Royal Commission on Environmental Pollution prompted the UK government to decree that both petrol stations and manufacturers must offer lead-free alternatives. Leaded petrol was finally removed from the last petrol pumps in the UK in 1999. This success in the environmental movement provides the evidence that the movement against climate change will also succeed.
Faced with multiplying, and interlinked, environmental crises in the 2020s – the climate emergency, the sixth extinction stalking the natural world, the plastic scourge in our oceans, the polluted air of teeming metropolises – it is easy to feel overwhelmed. The Covid Lockdown offered a tantalising glimpse of a cleaner world, but also revealed a starker truth: that the global economy is not set up to prioritise wellbeing, climate and nature. It is easy to forget that environmentalism is arguably the most successful citizens’ mass movement there has been. Environmental activists have transformed the modern world in ways we now take for granted. The ozone hole has shrunk. Whales, if not saved, at least enjoy a moratorium on hunting. Acid rain is no longer the scourge of forests and lakes. Rivers thick with pollution in the 1960s teem with fish. Who remembers that less than 30 years ago, nuclear tests were still taking place in the Pacific? Greenpeace’s Rainbow Warrior ship was blown up by the French government in 1985, with one death and many injuries, in a long-running protest. These victories contain important lessons. We’ve had so many campaigns and wins. Sometimes it’s been hard to claim success, and sometimes it takes a long time. And sometimes things that worked before won’t work now.

THE ACID RAIN PROGRAM OF THE EPA: Acid rain, first identified in the 1850s, took decades to address. The first murmurings of concern came about after the second world war and there were concerted efforts to solve it in the 1960s. The acid rain success story shows that global environmental movement can succeed. Acid rain occurs when sulphur dioxide and nitrogen oxides react with moist air to form weak acids, which then fall from clouds, killing plants and aquatic life. The scars can still be seen in parts of the US and northern Europe, where acid has etched limestone building facades, and faces have dissolved from statues. But in most of the world – except China, where the problem persists – the lifeless lakes and leafless trees that acid rain created have long since revived. Public pressure in the worst-offending countries – chiefly the US and the UK, which were responsible for acid rain that fell largely on neighbouring countries such as Canada and Scandinavia – was key. Watson recalls one telling advertising campaign: posters printed on litmus paper that said: “When acid rain is falling, you should see red” – offering a vivid illustration of the problem. Getting businesses to cooperate was a different matter. In the US, that was achieved through a novel mechanism that offered financial incentives from rivals, rather than the public purse. It was the first successful demonstration of a market-based approach. says Keohane. US power plant operators were issued with a limited number of allowances for how much sulphur and nitrogen oxides they could emit. They could buy and sell these among themselves, meaning the dirtiest companies had to buy them from those who cleaned up fastest, while the number of allowances available was gradually reduced. This cap-and-trade system operated successfully from 1990, becoming the model for a similar approach to greenhouse gases under the 1997 Kyoto protocol – though that attempt was less successful, because the US rejected it. The benefits were 40 times greater than the costs. There was an 86% reduction in pollutants, from 1990 to 2015, and there were huge unappreciated benefits beyond acid rain, on cleaning up particulates. What acid rain showed is that businesses can be successfully regulated, without causing economic damage. As with the campaign against lead, companies resisted new rules for years, but when they came, they responded swiftly, showing governments they could afford to be less timid. When we need to act, we can. There are also lessons for today’s campaigners. Climate change threatens to melt the ice caps, raise sea levels, destroy agriculture over swaths of the world, and is already causing humanitarian disasters. Time is short. But a lesson from 40 years ago shows the world can move quickly and decisively if it has to.

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THE OZONE DEPLETION PROGRAM OF THE UN:

About 15-35km above the surface of the Earth, the ozone layer acts as a filter against the sun’s radiation, blocking about 97% to 99% of medium-frequency ultraviolet light. That is important, because over-exposure to ultraviolet radiation is harmful to most living things, including plants and animals, and causes skin cancers, eye problems and genetic damage in humans. In 1974 came the first indications that all was not well in the lower stratosphere. Research by Mario Molina, who died last week, and Sherwood Rowland, both later awarded Nobel prizes, found that chemicals called chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), commonly used as propellants in aerosols, were likely to be reacting with the ozone and depleting it. The first moves against CFCs were in the US, Canada, Sweden and a few other countries in 1978, but others hung back, as chemical companies dismissed the fears as theoretical. Then, in 1985, the British Antarctic Survey published clear evidence of damage, in the form of a patch of drastically thinned ozone across the south pole. Their measurements showed 40% less ozone than had been detected 20 years earlier. The science was indisputable. The world moved quickly. Governments got together under the aegis of the UN and forged the Montreal Protocol in 1987, which phased out ozone-depleting chemicals globally. “The Montreal protocol is the best environment treaty the world has ever created. {CITATION: Institute for Governance and Sustainable Development}. “It solved the first great threat to the atmosphere, and put the ozone layer on the path to recovery by 2065. There’s very strong empirical evidence that it has done its job. When the Montreal protocol was signed, the world was rapidly approaching a precipice. The further the ozone depleted, the less likely it was to regenerate naturally. If the damage continued beyond a certain point, recovery and natural repair would have become virtually impossible, even if production of the harmful chemicals ceased. “It would have been beyond repair in about five or 10 years if we had not acted. The Montreal protocol shows, as the response to Covid-19 demonstrated, that the world can move quickly when governments want to. If a government needs to act, and Covid has shown this, my God can a government act. When we need to act, we can.

A key factor in the Montreal protocol and its success was making the economic case for action. When it came to ozone-depleting chemicals, the chemical companies found they could manufacture substitutes – and make more money doing so. Car companies made a similar calculation on lead in petrol, and US power plants had the incentives of cap-and-trade to halt acid rain. Today, a comparable economic shift has already happened in the field of climate action: renewable energy is cheaper in many countries than coal, gas and oil, and costs are likely to fall further. But some companies with fossil fuels to sell will still be left stranded, and corporate vested interests have not gone away. Fake news is everywhere. Disinformation from rightwing thinktanks on air pollution and climate change is all over the internet. And the media landscape has shifted to the right. One of the most striking aspects of successful environmental campaigns of the past is how they straddled the left-right political divide. Key green legislation and decisions, including the Montreal Protocol and the 1992 UNFCCC were put forward and signed by leaders from across the political spectrum. This may be partly because world leaders in the past were more willing to listen to scientists than today. Margaret Thatcher got it, on the ozone layer – she was a chemist, she read the scientific papers. Ronald Reagan got it because he’d had skin cancer. But a changing political discourse in many countries, driven by a rightwing populism that has forsaken reality in favour of stoking imagined grievances, has created a harsher political environment for climate change. The opponents of climate action have learned that in a culture where people get their news from politically dominated outlets and the internet, they can get away with lying but younger people are rejecting these lies about climate change. Consensus across political divisions is possible if green campaigners focus on the outcome rather than the process and bring forward constructive ideas. Reaching out across divisions to foster a sense of community is essential. Emphasize what people have in common despite surface divisions. The environmental movement crosses barriers because we are all human on the same planet, and interdependent. The environment is a shared experience.

Montreal Protocol คืออะไร... - วิศวกรรมสิ่งแวดล้อม ม.เอเชียอาคเนย์ |  Facebook
What is Acid Rain? | Acid Rain | US EPA

RESPONSE: THE SUCCESS OF ENVIRONMENTALISM AGAINST LEADED GASOLINE AND ACID RAIN. In a related post: LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/03/30/the-humans-must-save-the-planet/ we note that “The rapid industrial and economic growth in the post-war era progressed mostly without adequate safeguards against environmental degradation. This situation became sensationalized through a series of high profile events that captured public attention. The wanton use of pesticides such as DDT was blamed for killing butterflies and birds (Carson, 1962). The explosive growth in automobile ownership shrouded large cities like Los Angeles and New York in smog (Gardner, 2014) (Haagen-Smit, 1952) (Hanst, 1967). The widespread dumping of industrial waste into lakes and rivers was highlighted by events such as the fire in the Cuyahoga River (Marris, 2011) (Goldberg, 1979). The hippie counter-culture movement of the 1960s rejected conventional values in particular, the assumed primacy of technological advancement and industrial economic growth. It opposed the unrestricted use of pesticides, herbicides, preservatives, food additives, fertilizers, and other synthetic chemicals. It fought against the release of industrial waste into the atmosphere and into waterways, the harvesting of old growth forests for the wood and paper industries, and the inadequacy of public transit that could limit the number of automobiles in big cities and the air pollution they cause (Rome, 2003) (Zelko, 2013).

This environmental movement was the driving force behind the formation of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) in the USA which was given the laws, the ways, the means, and the power to act quickly and decisively to clean up the air and water (Ruckelshaus, 1984). The EPA cleaned up the air and the water in the USA with strictly enforced new laws and procedures that limited the concentration of harmful chemicals in all industrial effluents and also required all new enterprises to obtain the approval of the EPA of their environmental impact before they could proceed. The remarkable success of the EPA made it a model for environmental law and environmental protection in countries around the world (Ruckelshaus, 1984) (Andreen, 2004) (Dolin, 2008).

THE EXTENSION OF ENVIRONMENTALISM TO THE BAMBI PRINCIPLE Environmentalism in its conceptual sense is the idea that humans should take care of the environment for their own good such that human life, health, and security are enhanced. This idea is contained in the original hippie environmental wisdom that if you shit in bed you will sleep in shit. At some point, the enthusiasm of environmentalism became separated from this fundamental reality and the conceptual underpinnings of environmentalism was arbitrarily extended in a spirit of emotional enthusiasm into the The Bambi Principle in which the concept of environmentalism is extended to a role of humans not as part of nature but as caretakers of nature. RELATED POST ON BAMBI: LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/11/15/the-bambi-principle/

Global environmentalism: It was found that industrial waste in rivers draining into the ocean ,ay have detrimental effects on oceanic biota and chemistry. It was thus that the “environment” to be taken care of became extended beyond national boundaries in the context of the role of man as nature’s manager and keeper. Environmentalism now meant more than man making sure his environment will sustain him. It meant that man was now in charge of nature. This is the conceptual bridge that when extended to the planetary scale led to the idea of the Anthropocene that gave man a godlike role on the planet earth.

Our First Look Back at Earth | Daily Planet | Air & Space Magazine

THE EXTENSION OF ENVIRONMENTALISM TO THE PLANETARY SCALE:

Late in the year 1972 the first picture of the planet was taken from space and flashed on TV screens around the world. THIS WAS A TRANSFORMATIONAL EVENT IN THE ENVIRONMENTAL MOVEMENT.

The picture was taken by the crew of the Apollo-9 space craft. This image created an overwhelming sense of awe as well as a sense of insecurity to see the finite little thing that we live on that had seemed so infinitely big as viewed from the surface. This image caused a profound change in environmentalism such that our “environment” became redefined as the planet itself and the “environment” of environmentalism underwent a grand and dramatic change. In the new planetary context of environmentalism, our environment is the same wherever we are and it is the whole of the planet. For example, the environment I live in is not just the rice fields and sugar palms you see in the picture below, but the whole of the planet earth.

sugarpalms

THE RISE OF PLANETARY ENVIRONMENTALISM This image from space encouraged environmentalists to look at wider impacts of pollution and they quickly learned that both water pollution carried by rivers to the ocean and air pollution anywhere on earth have a reach much larger than they had imagined. For example ocean pollution in Southeastern USA could be carried by ocean currents thousands of miles away where it could have a detrimental impact. And air pollution in Corsica could affect air quality in Athens; and environmentalist James Lovelock found long lived chlorofluorocarbon (CFC) compounds used in refrigerants and hairspray in the atmosphere in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean. Soon thereafter, environmental scientists Sherwood Rowland and Mario Molina of UC Irvine proposed a theory that the long life of CFC discovered by Lovelock implies that these chemicals could eventually end up in the stratosphere where they could act as catalytic agents of ozone destruction. This was a global environmental issue and not the regime of any specific nation state.

The United Nations entered the scene to take charge of global environmental issues by forming the United Nations Environmental Program (UNEP) and immediately went to work on the global environmental problem of ozone depletion implied by the works of Sherwood Rowland and Mario Molina with empirical evidence of ozone depletion published in the Farman etal 1985 paper. LINK TO UNEP GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTALISM: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/03/18/the-eco-crisis-ambition-of-the-un/

THE ANALYSIS PRESENTED ABOVE SHOWS THAT THE 1960S ENVIRONMENGTALISM THAT HELPED TO UNDO THE POLLUTION OF THE POST WAR ECONOMIC BOOM AND TO CREATE THE EPA AND ITS RATIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY FOR THE INDUSTRIAL ECONOMY CANNOT BE COMPARED WITH THE GLOBAL OZONE AND CLIMATE MOVEMENTS OF THE UN. THEREFORE, THE SUCCESS OF THE ENVIRONMENTAL MOVEMENTS AGAINST THE UNLEADED PETROL AND ACID RAIN HAVE NO IMPLICATION FOR THE CLIMATE CHANGE MOVEMENT. THESE CITED SUCCESSES WERE AT THE NATIONAL LEVEL WITH THE ISSUES FRAMED IN TERMS OF NATIONAL HEALTH AND WELL BEING AND MANAGED BY NATIONAL ELECTED GOVERNMENTS AND JUDICIARY WITH THE NECESSARY LEGAL AND GOVERNANCE INFRASTRUCTURE AND ACCOUNTABILITY TO THE GOVERNED TO MAKE THE REQUIRED CHANGES. IN THIS ENVIRONMENTALISM, THERE WAS NO BAMBI PRINCIPLE, NO GLOBAL ASPIRATION, NO ANTHROPOCENE, AND NO SEPARATION OF HUMANS FROM NATURE AS A WAY OF IMPOSING HUMANS AS THE MANAGERS AND CARETAKERS OF THE PLANET. IT WAS PART OF NATIONAL GOVERNANCE WITH A WELL DEVELOPED LEGAL, POLITICAL, AND GOVERNANCE INFRASTRUCURE TO SERVE THE NEEDS OF THE CITIZENS AND TAX PAYERS. WHERE POLLUTION ISSUES WENT ACROSS NATIONAL BOUNDARIES, THEY WERE RESOLVED WITH SPECIFIC POLLUTION ABATEMENT TREATIES BETWEEN THE GOVERNMENTS INVOLVED.

BY WAY OF CONTRAST, THE GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTALISM OF THE UN OPERATES IN A LEGAL AND GOVERNANCE VACCUUM AND AN ACCOUNTABILITY VACCUUM AS DESCRIBED IN A RELATED POST: LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2019/02/25/un/

AS FOR THE SUCCESS OF THE MONTREAL PROTOCOL, WE FIND THAT IT HAS NO IMPLICATION FOR CLIMATE ACTION BECAUSE OF THE VAST DIFFERENCE IN THE COST OF COMPLIANCE. SUCCESS OF THE MONTREAL PROTOCOL IS BEST UNDERSTOOD IN TERMS OF THE RELATIVE EASE OF COMPLIANCE COMPARED WITH CLIMATE ACTION. THE COST OF COMPLIANCE OF TENS OF BILLIONS OF USD FOR THE MONTREAL PROTOCOL (WITH SIGNIFICANT FOREIGN AID FROM THE RICH COUNTRIES TO THE POOR) IS A PITTANCE COMPARED WITH THE MANY TRILLIONS ESTIMATED FOR CLIMATE ACTION WITH UNCERTAINTIES SO LARGE THAT THE UNITED NATIONS ADMITS THAT IT DOES NOT KNOW HOW HIGH THAT COST COULD GO: LINK TO SOURCE: https://www.oecd.org/env/cc/2482300.pdf

THEREFORE, THE ARGUMENT THAT THE CLIMATE MOVEMENT SHOULD SUCCEED BECAUSE THE UNLEADED GASOLINE PROGRAM AND THE ACID RAIN PROGRAM DID AND BECAUSE THE MONTREAL PROTOCOL WAS A SUCCESS IS NOT VALID BECAUSE IT OVERLOOKS IMPORTANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THESE ISSUES.

POSTSCRIPT ON THE OZONE DEPLETION ISSUE AND THE MONTREAL PROTOCOL. In related posts on this site, we show some serious issues in the ozone depletion crisis and the apparent success of the Montreal Protocol. Here are the links to the relevant posts on this site:

LINK#1: https://tambonthongchai.com/2018/08/07/history-of-the-ozone-depletion-scare/ The history of ozone depletion agitation by environmentalists predates Rowland and Molina by decades. It is a very old environmental issue that had tried and failed multiple times at the national level in the USA and in other countries but succeeded in 1987 when the issue was globalized with the UN and its newly formed UNEP in charge.

LINK#2: https://tambonthongchai.com/2019/03/12/ozone1966-2015/ . To this day, the only empirical evidence of ozone depletion as described by Rowland and Molina, is the Farman etal 1985 paper. In this post we point out serious errors in the Farman paper. These errors invalidate the findings. Therefore, to this day, we have no empirical evidence of ozone depletion. Excerpt: ” The overall structure of changes in total column ozone in time and across latitudes shows that the data from the two stations in Antarctica prior to 1985 are unique and specific to that time and place. They cannot be generalized into a global pattern of ozone depletion. Here we show that declining levels of total column ozone in Antarctica during the months of October and November prior to 1985 do not serve as empirical evidence that can be taken as validation of the Rowland-Molina theory of chemical ozone depletion. The chemical theory implies that ozone depletion must be assessed across the full range of latitudes and over a much longer time span than what is found in Farman etal 1985 which serves as the sole basis for the ozone depletion hypothesis that led to the Montreal Protocol and the ascendance of the UN as a global environmental authority.

LINK#3: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/11/04/the-ozone-hole-of-2020/ Excerpt: Briefly, RMTOD is about long term trends in global mean total column ozone which forms only in the Tropics and which is distributed to the higher latitudes by the Brewer Dobson circulation and by other means. These distributions are volatile and variable. The variability increases sharply with latitude. Therefore the dynamics of ozone concentration at the most extreme possible latitude do not contain useful information about global mean total column ozone. Therefore, “ozone hole” data have no interpretation in terms of RMTOD.{RMTOD=Rowland Molina Theory of Ozone Depletion}

Large variability in South Polar ozone levels has no RMTOD interpretation and the description of brief periods of low ozone levels there as some kind of a hole that we need to worry about has no scientific or empirical basis and no implication in terms of RMTOD. IN CONCLUSION, IT APPEARS THAT THE OZONE DEPLETION ENVIRONMENTAL ISSUE AND ITS RESOLUTION WITH THE GLOBAL MONTREAL PROTOCOL IS A CASE OF ESTABLISHING THE UN’S ROLE AS GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY BY FIRST IDENTIFYING A NON-EXISTENT PROBLEM AND THEN SIMPLY DECLARING IT SOLVED.

Scisnack | CFCs and Ozone: The Hole Story

10 years on from Hurricane Katrina: What have we learned? | Carbon Brief

A Quora question:

What is the impact of global warming on Hurricane frequency?

Answer:

Tropical cyclones in the West Pacific Basin are called Typhoons. Those in the North Atlantic Basin are called Hurricanes. In the other four cyclone basins, they are called Cyclones. There are six cyclone basins in all.

The theoretical impact of global warming on tropical cyclones derived from climate model simulations is summarized in a now famous paper called Knutson 2010. What Tom Knutson says in that paper is this: Global warming will impact tropical cyclones by way of higher sea surface temperature that will provide a greater amount of energy to the cyclones.

Long term trends in the total cyclone energy for all six cyclone basins should therefore show a rising trend over time scales of more than 30 years. Total cyclone energy can go up two ways – the number of cyclones that form can go up or the average energy per cyclone can go up or both. Knutson says it’s mostly the latter, that is global warming will make the average cyclone energy of all cyclones in all six basins higher and higher.

The the only thing you can test for is the long term trend in total cyclone energy. There is no testable implication for individual basins such as the North Atlantic where Hurricanes form. And there is no testable implication for frequency alone because intensity must also be taken into account for total cyclone energy.

Therefore, in answer to your question, climate science does not have any way to relate only the frequency of tropical cyclones in only the North Atlantic Basin (where tropical cyclones are called Hurricanes), to global warming. For more info lease see:

Tropical Cyclones and SST

Thomas Knutson

Earth has 'now reached 9 climate change tipping points' as top scientists  warn of 'domino effect' catastrophe

A PHYS.ORG ARTICLE EXPLAINS THE NON-RESPONSIVENESS OF CLIMATE CHANGE TO COVID INDUCED EMISSION REDUCTION IN TERMS OF THE TIPPING POINT AND CONCLUDES THAT CLIMATE CHANGE HAS REACHED A TIPPING POINT AND IS NO LONGER RESPONSIVE TO CLIMATE ACTION BECAUSE NATURAL FEEDBACKS ARE NOW THE PRIMARY FORCES IN CLIMATE CHANGE: LINK: https://phys.org/news/2020-11-greenhouse-gas-emissions-global.html

Tipping points

THIS POST IS A CRITICAL REVIEW OF THE PHYS.ORG ARTICLE AND SIMILAR REPORTS IN THE MEDIA THAT HAVE INTERPRETED THE NON-RESPONSIVENESS OF THE CLIMATE TO THE COVID INDUCED EMISSION REDUCTION IN TERMS OF A FEEDBACK INDUCED TIPPING POINT WHERE EMISSIONS NO LONGER MATTER AND THEREFORE CLIMATE ACTION IS NO LONGER EFFECTIVE BECAUSE THE CLIMATE IS NOW OUT OF HUMAN HANDS.

Climate change and coronavirus: Five charts about the biggest carbon crash

PART-1: WHAT THE PHYS.ORG ARTICLE SAYS

Ending greenhouse gas emissions may not stop global warming. Even if humanity stopped emitting greenhouse gases tomorrow, Earth will warm for centuries to come and oceans will rise by metres, according to a controversial modelling study published Thursday. Natural drivers of global warming—more heat-trapping clouds, thawing permafrost, and shrinking sea ice—already set in motion by carbon pollution will take on their own momentum, researchers from Norway reported in the Nature journal Scientific Reports. Jorgen Randers says: “”According to our models, humanity is beyond the point-of-no-return when it comes to halting the melting of permafrost using greenhouse gas cuts as the single tool.

Jorgen Randers – Exclusive Speaker, The Insight Bureau

If we want to stop permafrost melting we must do something in addition to emission reduction and that is to suck CO2 out of the atmosphere and store it underground, and make Earth’s surface brighter to reflect light. Using a stripped-down climate model, Jorgen Randers and Ulrich Goluke projected changes out to the year 2500 under two scenarios: the instant cessation of emissions, and the gradual reduction of planet warming gases to zero by 2100. The projected warming since pre-industrial for instant cessation is 2.3C above pre-industrial. The projected warming for gradual emission reduction is a collapse of civilization described as “the earth warms up to levels that would tear the fabric of civilization”.

Several thresholds, or “tipping points”, in Earth’s climate system have already been crossed, triggering a self-perpetuating process of warming, as has happened millions of years in the past. One of these drivers is the rapid retreat of sea ice in the Arctic. Millions of square kilometres of reflective snow and ice been replaced in summer by open ocean, which absorbs the same of the incident solar radiation. Another source is the thawing of permafrost, which holds twice as much carbon as there is in the atmosphere. The third is increasing amounts of water vapour, which also has a warming effect.

Scenarios For Sustainability | Ulrich Golüke - YouTube

RESPONSE BY CLIMATE SCIENTISTS

Met Office scientists receive prestigious Royal Meteorological Society  Awards | Met Office | Official Press Release

Climate scientist Richard Betts has not reacted favorably to the Randers assessment. He doesn’t feel that the climate model used by Randers is credible. Even extreme climate activist and Anthropocene enthusiast Mark Maslin is hesitant to take Randers seriously saying that the ESCIMO climate model used by Randers can’t be taken seriously and that its results are at best a thought experiment and nothing more. The most favorable assessment by climate scientists is that the study does draw attention to the climate science position that reducing global carbon emissions to zero by 2050″—a goal championed by the UN and embraced by a growing number of countries—”is just the start of our actions to deal with climate change.” It is the needed beginning of climate action but just the beginning and not the end. In more sophisticated climate models used by the IPCC, we find that the Paris climate pact temperature goals cannot be reached unless massive amounts of CO2 are removed from the atmosphere perhaps by planting billions of trees. Experimental technologies have shown that sucking CO2 out of the air can be done mechanically, but so far not at the scale required.

THE CO2 THEORY OF EVERYTHING | Thongchai Thailand

PART-2: CRITICAL COMMENTARY

The issue in climate science described here by Randers etal is that the claimed impact of fossil fuels is hard to find in the data. It arises from the observation by the KARLSRUHER INSTITUT FÜR TECHNOLOGIE and others that the expected impact of emission reduction due to Covid lockdowns and the collapse of international air traffic is not found in the data. If the rise in atmospheric CO2 is really due to fossil fuel emissions as claimed by climate science, then the drop in emissions in the Covid era should show up in the CO2 data and therefore in the rate of warming – but no such response to emission reduction is found in the data for trends in rising atmospheric CO2 concentration and rising global mean surface temperature. This issue is discussed in some detail in a related post on this site with the difference that an annual time scale is used in the analysis as required by climate science; LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/09/23/emission-reduction-atmospheric-co2/

The Keeling Curve | A daily record of atmospheric carbon dioxide from  Scripps Institution of Oceanography at UC San Diego

A possible explanation for this anomaly is provided in related posts on this site where annual time scales are used. These are as follows.

RELATED POST#1: Data for atmospheric CO2 concentration and fossil fuel emissions do not show that atmospheric composition is responsive to fossil fuel emissions at an annual time scale as assumed in climate science. Thus no evidence is found that the observed rise in atmospheric CO2 concentration is caused by fossil fuel emissions and that this rise can be attenuated by taking climate action in the form of reducing or eliminating the burning of fossil fuels. LINK#1: https://tambonthongchai.com/2018/12/19/co2responsiveness/

RELATED POST#2: Data for annual change in atmospheric CO2 concentration and annual fossil fuel emissions do not show that these changes can be attributed to fossil fuel emissions as assumed in climate science. Thus no evidence is found that the observed annual changes in atmospheric CO2 concentration are caused by annual fossil fuel emissions or that that these changes can be attenuated by taking climate action in the form of reducing or eliminating the burning of fossil fuels. LINK#2: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/11/11/annual-changes-in-mlo-co2/

RELATED POSTS#3 & #4: Data for carbon cycle flows and fossil fuel flows are used to construct two different Monte Carlo simulations to determine whether the impact of fossil fuel emissions on atmospheric composition can be found in the data net of uncertainties in carbon cycle flows published by the IPCC. No evidence is found that fossil fuel emissions can be detected net of uncertainties in much larger carbon cycle flows. Monte Carlo Simulation #1: LINK#3: https://tambonthongchai.com/2018/05/31/the-carbon-cycle-measurement-problem/ Monte Carlo Simulation #2: LINK#4: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/06/10/a-monte-carlo-simulation-of-the-carbon-cycle/

RELATED POST#5: The failure of the Covid reduction in fossil fuel emissions to affect the rate of atmospheric CO2 rise or the rate of warming noted by the KARLSRUHER INSTITUT is presented and analyzed in this related post: LINK#5: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/09/23/emission-reduction-atmospheric-co2/

RELATED POST#6: Natural geological flows of carbon that can change atmospheric composition are identified in this post and it is argued that until these flows can be quantified and their atmospheric impact assessed, the role of fossil fuel emissions in the determination of changes in atmospheric composition cannot be determined. LINK#6: https://tambonthongchai.com/2019/08/27/carbonflows/

RELATED POST#7: That geological flows of carbon can make significant changes to atmospheric composition is seen in the paleo record where we find that an oxidation event in the deep ocean oxidized geological carbon and changed atmospheric composition. LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/03/20/an-atmosphere-bias-part-2/

Seeps Give a Peek Into Plumbing

CONCLUSION: We conclude from the analysis presented above that the discovery by Dr. Randers and others that the Covid reduction in fossil fuel emissions did not slow down the rate of change of the rise in atmospheric CO2 or of the rate of warming does not mean that human caused climate change has reached a tipping point where scary natural forces such as feedbacks have taken over but that it was natural to start with. The non-responsiveness of atmospheric CO2 to fossil fuel emissions implies that the current warming cycle of the Holocene is natural after all.

This interpretation of the Randers finding is the likely reason that climate scientists who have themselves preached the fear of tipping points in the past have expressed negative evaluations of it in this instance.

Fossil-fuel emissions unbraked by financial crisis

FOOTNOTE: IN CLIMATE SCIENCE, THE RESPONSIVENESS OF ATMOSPHERIC CO2 TO FOSSIL FUEL EMISSIONS IS ASSSESSED AT AN ANNUAL TIME SCALE. IT IS NOTED THAT THE COVID EMISSION REDUCTION PERIOD IS LESS THAN A YEAR. THE QUESTIONS RAISED BY BY THE KARLSRUHER INSTITUT AND OTHERS IN THIS REGARD DO NOT MEET THIS TIME SCALE REQUIREMENT.