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Archive for October 2020

Quotes about Religion and science (269 quotes)

The Creation of Adam - Wikipedia
Creation, Adam, and Cain - A Beka Flash-A-Cards | Adam and eve, Bible  pictures, Bible art
What if Adam and Eve didn't sin? - Quora
UnitingChurch-TurkishMosque

THIS POST IS A CRITICAL EXAMINATION OF THE CLOSE LINK BETWEEN CLIMATE CHANGE SCIENCE AND RELIGION SEEN IN CLIMATE ACTIVISM BY RELIGIOUS LEADERS WITH THE LAUDATO SI ENCYCLICAL OF THE POPE SERVING AS THE BASIS.

BELOW ARE THREE SUCH PRESENTATIONS WITH SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG THEM ALTHOUGH ALL THREE ARE LINKED WITH THE LAUDATO SI ENCYCLICAL OF POPE FRANCIS.

AT THE END OF THESE PRESENTATIONS, WE PROVIDE A CRITICAL REVIEW

(#1) REVERAND FLETCHER HARPER, EPISCOPAL PRIEST, THE CHURCH OF ENGLAND

AND A WEBSITE CALLED CENTRE FOR CLIMATE SAFETY: LINK: https://climatesafety.info/what-we-all-can-do/what-religious-leaders-and-communities-can-do/

Church of England commits to net-zero emissions by 2030

The website provides guidelines to religious leaders on what they can do forclimate safety“. It says “The world’s best climate experts have released the most comprehensive report on climate change ever made. The conclusions are sobering. Our climate is changing at a disastrous rate. Our leaders need to hear a message of hope, to step outside politics as usual and realise that people around the world are praying for them to be bold and do what is right.”

The website is operated by Reverand Fletcher Harper of the Church of England. His personal website is called GREENFAITH.ORG where we find this; “Fletcher is an Episcopal priest and, since 2002, GreenFaith’s Executive Director. Under his leadership, GreenFaith has developed innovative programs linking religious belief and practice to the environment.

An award-winning spiritual writer and nationally-recognized preacher on the environment, he has led multi-faith organizing for the 2014 and 2017 Peoples Climate Marches, played a lead role in the faith-based fossil fuel divestment movement, and coordinated the development of GreenFaith’s international work. He is author of GreenFaith – Mobilizing God’s People to Save the Earth.”

(#2) The LAUDATO SI ENCYCLICAL OF POPE FRANCIS

Download "Laudato Si" | Pope Francis' Encyclical on Environment and Climate  Change
Earth Day - 10 Points from Laudato Si - Congregation of the Mission
11 Things to Know Before Visiting the Vatican - 2020 Vatican City Guide
The Flag of the Vatican City

Laudato Si‘ represented a seminal integration of the environment and humanity (the title is from the first words of the encyclical, “Praise be to you my Lord”). … The encyclical broadly accepts the scientific consensus that climate change is principally a man-made phenomenon and that it can and must be undone by man by taking the climate action of moving from fossil fuels to renewables. Pope Francis criticized world governments for their “very weak” response to the climate crisis. In June, he issued guidance for carrying out his climate encyclical that included calling on Catholics to divest themselves of investments in fossil fuel companies. With this new sense of urgency, the Vatican launched a year-long program of Laudato Si’ activities and put in place a new, seven-year call to action. The encyclical broadly accepts the scientific consensus that climate change is principally a man-made phenomenon. Without prompt global action to reduce carbon dioxide emissions and slow the planet’s warming, it says, there will be profound environmental, social, political and economic consequences. The pope clearly identifies the use of fossil fuels as a cause of climate change.

Yale University scholar Mary Evelyn Tucker is co-director of the Yale Forum on Religion and Ecology. It describes the pope’s commitment on climate as “unprecedented,” and says it represents a “structural change” in how the world is confronting climate change and other environmental issues, such as pollution. Science and policy have led the response to environmental concerns for decades, she said, but the pope has interjected a moral force linking people with their environment. It’s not just social justice issues, and not just environmental issues, Tucker said. “It’s the cry of the Earth and the cry of the poor, all coming together in various movements. The encyclical names this ‘integral ecology’.” The global coronavirus pandemic, she added, “is making the linkages even more clear. You cannot have healthy people on a sick planet.

A Message for the Planet
To the world’s 1.2 billion Catholics—including about 70 million in the United States—a papal encyclical is a pastoral letter that carries a special gravitas. But with Laudato Si’, the pope intended it to reach everyone on the planet. The encyclical stands on millennia of Catholic teachings, starting with the Genesis story,” said Anna Wagner, an engagement director with the five-year-old Global Catholic Climate Movement, which works with the Vatican on climate matters. It takes ancient lessons of our faith and expresses them in a new way. Upon the encyclical’s release in June, 2015, the pope took to Twitter to declare, bluntly: “The earth, our home, is beginning to look more and more like an immense pile of filth. At the time, scientists were warning that global warming, rising seas, and supercharged weather were no longer a distant threat. Five years later, scientists have documented how climate change is intensifying droughts, wildfires and hurricanes, and have said that carbon emissions need to drop 45 percent by 2030 if the world is to have a chance at fending off the worst effects of climate change.

In Laudato Si’, Pope Francis blended the latest science on climate and the loss of biological diversity with a heavy dose of economics, Catholic teaching and a call to treat all humans with dignity and respect. “Climate change is a global problem with grave implications,” he wrote, especially for the poor in developing nations. Rich countries are hurting poor countries, Francis wrote, calling for an economic system with “more balanced levels of production, a better distribution of wealth, concern for the environment and the rights of future generations.”

The encyclical was seen in some camps as an attack on capitalism, and it made some Catholic Republican leaders squirm, like former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, who in 2015 observed that the pope “is not a scientist.” The climate denier Heartland Institute accused Francis of being misled by false prophets or the “agenda-driven bureaucrats at the United Nations.” Five years later, Bill McKibben, a Methodist open about his own Christian faith, described the encyclical as among the most important documents of our time. McKibben says that the encyclical understands the climate crisis in a much larger sense in that the environmental movement needs to be the environmental justice movement. It’s important, as well, McKibben said, because of the Pope’s reach as a global faith leader and arguably the most recognizable figure in the world.

The World’s Response to Laudato Si has been that it convinced many that climate change is a Source of Grave Concern. Laudato Si’ created a global buzz before and after it was published. The National Catholic Reporter, a Kansas City-based independent Catholic news outlet with dedicated climate coverage, found examples around the world in which individual Catholics, parishes and institutions had responded to Laudato Si’. As a response to the Laudato Si, Bishops in the Philippines are fighting coal-fired power plants. American Catholic nuns and their partners in Ghana launched a plastic recycling program to reduce waste and increase employment. The U.S. Conference of Bishops has opposed the Trump administration and its rollback or repeals of key environmental regulations.

The Global Catholic Climate Movement has grown to encompass 900 Catholic organizations in dozens of countries. The organization has spearheaded some of Catholicism’s most visible climate actions, from faith-based youth climate strikes to persuading a growing number of Catholic institutions to pull their investments in fossil fuel companies. The urgency of this ecological conversion seems not to have been grasped by international politics, where the response to the problems raised by global climate change remains very weak. This weakness is a source of grave concern. The Pope met with 180 diplomats at the Vatican to address this issue. At the same time he praised the rising voices of young people demanding urgent action on climate change.

After that meeting, the Vatican announced the Laudato Si’ Action Platform.” It asks Catholics and Catholic institutions to achieve sustainability within seven years. The Vatican itself continues to gather advice from high-level scientists and other experts. The Vatican is pulling expertise from all over the world. This is a huge commitment.

The Catholic Divestment Program. The Vatican’s full support for divestment of fossil fuel companies is a big deal, since the Church is a serious financial force. Catholic institutions are divesting from fossil fuel companies since Laudato Si’. This includes the University of Dayton and Georgetown University. Divestment activist McKibben and his group 350.org, plays an important role in the divestment campaign. More than 1,200 institutions pledged to divest $14 trillion from fossil fuels, including the Episcopal church, the Church of England, and the World Council of Churches. This is the first-ever endorsement of a fossil fuel divestment campaign to come from the Vatican. It is the largest-ever divestment by faith institutions wherein 42 institutions in 14 countries announced their commitment to drop fossil fuels from their investment portfolio.

Engaging Conservative Catholics: The pope’s renewed climate push this year comes as an American presidential election with widely divergent views on climate change. President Donald Trump has taken the country in the opposite direction from the Vatican, working to withdraw the United States from the 2015 Paris climate agreement, a global action to fight climate change. Democratic challenger and former Vice President Joe Biden, a Catholic, has embraced the encyclical, as well as a $2 trillion clean jobs program to achieve net-zero carbon emissions by 2050. For some Catholics, Trump’s fossil-fuel agenda has provided motivation to act on their own, said Dan Misleh, executive director of Catholic Climate Covenant, that works to incorporate the encyclical’s message in education and worship.

A statement from Dan Misleh: The encyclical has inspired climate action across the country. The CATHOLIC CLIMATE COVENANT has Creation Care Teams to lead community action. It has started Catholic Energies, focused on solar power and energy efficiency and it is encouraging advocacy in state capitals and Washington, D.C.

The Atlanta climate action plan has been or is being used as a point of reference for climate plans at the Archdiocese of Washington, D.C., where Archbishop Gregory now serves, and at dioceses in Boston, Columbus, Minneapolis, San Diego and elsewhere. But some dioceses and parishes are Republican and these conservatives are climate deniers and not willing to embrace the climate fight. It turns out that Catholics are evenly split between Republicans and Democrats. Catholic Laudato Si activists are deeply concerned about how to engage these Catholic conservatives.

Encyclical activists are trying to convince their conservative parishioners that all Pope Francis is asking for is a future in which ‘all people can prosper personally and economically in harmony with the gifts God has given us in nature.

IN THE END, ALL CATHOLICS, REGARDLESS OF POLITICS, MUST ANSWER THIS SIMPLE QUESTION ABOUT CLIMATE CHANGE; WHAT DOES OUR FAITH CALL US TO DO?

Laudato si and the Ecological Debt
Earth Day - 10 Points from Laudato Si - Congregation of the Mission
Download "Laudato Si" | Pope Francis' Encyclical on Environment and Climate  Change

(#3)BISHOP MCELROY OF SAN DIEGO, CALIFORNIA

Bishop McElroy – The Roman Catholic Diocese of San Diego
Diocese of San Diego - Horowitz Law

Bishop McElroy on Laudato Si’: 2019: LINK: https://www.ncronline.org/news/earthbeat/bishop-mcelroy-laudato-si-urgent-summons-american-people

THIS IS BISHOP MCELROY’S KEYNOTE ADDRESS AT THE LAUDATO SI CONFERENCE AT CREIGHTON UNIVERSITY IN OMAHA NEBRASKA.

In his epic poem, “Paradise Lost,” John Milton captured the majestic drama of the fall and rise of humanity amidst the never failing love and power of God’s presence in the world. When Satan approaches the Garden of Eden, to bring down Adam and Eve who had become the focus of God’s love and tender care. Satan is stunned and overwhelmed by the sheer beauty of Paradise. It is the Paradise that the Lord has created for the humans.

The beauty of Paradise reminds Satan only of his alienation from the Creator and so he despises the majesty of Creation. Satan cries out in pain {O Thou, that with surpassing glory crowned, to thee I call, But with not with friendly voice, to tell the sun how I hate thy beams, That bring to my remembrance from what state I fell, how glorious once above thy sphere till pride and ambition threw me down}. The lament of Satan is forged by his estrangement from the magnificence of God’s creation which Satan had deformed. {as we now deform God’s creation with fossil fuel emissions}. For us as men and women of the twenty-first century, this very same estrangement reverberates through our relationship with the earth that is our common home. Perceiving in the recesses of our soul the magnificence of the world that God has created for the entire human family, we yet allow selfishness, denial, the thirst for control, radical individualism and the rejection of God to forge a culture that progressively destroys the beauty and sustainability of the world which is our common home. And in that contradiction we are estranged from the created order which God bestowed upon the human family as the setting of our pilgrimage on this earth.

OUR ESTRANGEMENT FROM THE PLANET

Laudato Si’ both unmasks this estrangement and points to the pathway forward for us to move from alienation toward healing and the renewal of the earth. The encyclical is a call to arms for those who would rescue our bruised planet from the forces that deplete and destroy it. But Laudato Si’ is so much more than this in its delineation of an integral human ecology. In this context, Laudato Si emphasizes that the illnesses that plague our world are interrelated. Therefore, progress in any one dimension requires attending to the wholeness of the human person and the human family and the wholeness of our planet earth.

The USA is in a perilous moment in our history and it is this urgency where Laudato Si’ directly applies. We stand, deeply estranged from one another, seething in divisions and unwilling to reconcile. We are the most powerful nation in the history of the earth, yet have rejected the only realistic pathways that have emerged to heal our broken planet. When Europeans came to the New World, they were often drawn by a vision of a New Paradise in which the raw beauty of the original creation was untouched. Now the earth calls out to us in agony, and we remain blind to the harm that we are inflicting more deeply with every passing year. Laudato Si’ is a call to reforge the bonds of solidarity that have been at the core of every advance that we have made as a people. It is a call to recognize the profound economic inequality that cripples us as a society and powers the engines of consumerism and technological recklessness that separate us from our planet, our brothers and sisters in the human family, and most piercingly of all, from the well-being of the generations who will come after us.

For us to heal the estrangement which imperils us as a nation and as a world, we must unmask the various levels of alienation that underlie it, and understand that only an integrated prism of analysis is capable of pointing to the profound healing that we must begin in these days. We are the most powerful nation in the history of the earth, yet have rejected the only realistic pathways that have emerged to heal our broken planet.

OUR ESTRANGEMENT FROM GOD

Pope Francis notes in Laudato Si’ the identity of the created order: “As Christians, we are also called to accept the world as a sacrament of communion, as a way of sharing with God and our fellow humans. The divine and the human are connected because they meet in the seamless garment of God’s creation. The only possible stance of our humanity in the face of such divine love is that of awe and gratitude. And yet in the present moment of human history, our response to God’s gift of the created order is on so many levels to embrace a worldview that is forgetful of God. Laudato Si’ outlines the nature of this forgetfulness which leads ineluctably to regarding creation not as gift to all, but as the possession of specific men and women and societies who have a right to exploit it for their private purposes. Pope Francis says that the best way to put an end to absolute dominion over the earth by humans is to remember that only the Father creates and He alone owns the world. In the absence of this wisdom, humans will try to impose their own laws and interests on reality. This estrangement from God leads to the denial of a universal destination for material goods. All material goods flow ultimately from the act of God in creation. The estrangement from God the Creator leads to the refusal to recognize that the whole of the human family is one because we share one Father and one destiny. Estrangement from the Creator leads to the acquisitive and dominating spirit in humans.

OUR ESTRANGEMENT FROM NATURE

Advances in science, technology, and inventions have served humans well but they have weakened the connection among humans and the connection of humans with nature. The connections which we have as human beings with one another and with nature have been weakened by technological advances and led to a widespread denial of the spiritual identity of nature. Laudato Si’ makes this denial clear by pointing our that the technological advantage leads to increasing levels of control over nature by way of technological mastery. Humans have long intervened in nature, but in the past the intervention had been in tune with nature. The technological paradigm provides the opportunity for humans to be manipulative in their use of nature for unnatural gains. What the Laudato Si tell us is to seek a spiritual relationship with nature, one that is respectful and loving. In the Laudato Si’, we read that the creatures of nature are our sisters united with us by affection but there is a conflict between the technological paradigm and the affective bonds between humans and nature. We all experience moments of spiritual and moral bonds with nature and with the creation that blesses our world. But those moments are overwhelmed by our technological control that underlays our society and draws us to increasingly treat nature in solely manipulative and extractive ways. This is how we have become estranged from nature, unable to appreciate nature as God’s creation. We find it impossible to think of the sun and the moon as brother and sister because we don’t see the spiritual identity of nature. Sadly, we treat nature as an object to be manipulated and used.

OUR ESTRANGEMENT FROM TRUTH

The Laudato Si’ says that our earth is under attack by economic and extractive forces that are destroying the common home we share with nature with carbon dioxide pollution, destruction of ecosystems, the social and political effects of climate change, and the destruction of biodiversity. These scientifically-informed conclusions are stark and chilling. Some of these issues are complex but the reality is that economic interests and pseudo-science are being deployed on a systematic basis to hide the dangers to our common home and protect the very forces that are ravaging our air, our water, and human life itself. (A reference to climate deniers? Trump?). Laudato Si unmasks this reality. Particularly here in the United States, we are estranged from the truth about the environment because we are becoming estranged from the very notion of truth itself. At this moment in our history as a nation, our political culture is submerged in a morass of conscious and repeated lies that wear down our collective culture of truth-seeking and substitutes for it a counterfeit culture rooted in the conclusion truth itself is only a vague illusion that cannot be realized in a complex world. Laudato Si unmasks the reality that particularly here in the United States, we are estranged from the truth about the environment because we are becoming estranged from the very notion of truth itself. Laudato Si’ repudiates this moral and intellectual surrender and affirms unequivocally that the consensus of human inquiry into the environmental degradation of our planet reveals a powerful tide of man-made decline in our climate, our water, our soil and biodiversity. We must put aside our estrangement from the truth to redeem our natural environment, just as we must put aside our estrangement from political truth to redeem our political culture.

How Pope Francis' Laudato Si Relates to City Planning - Father Alejandro  Crostwaithe | International Making Cities Livable
Bp. McElroy: Make Climate Change Top Priority

(#4) CRITICAL COMMENTARY

The Creation of Adam - Wikipedia
THE SPECIAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN GOD AND MAN
Creation, Adam, and Cain - A Beka Flash-A-Cards | Adam and eve, Bible  pictures, Bible art
ADAM AND EVE TAKING CARE OF NATURE
What if Adam and Eve didn't sin? - Quora
ADAM AND EVE AND THEIR DOMINION OVER NATURE

What we find in the text above is that the Laudato Si and its interpretation by Bishop McElroy and Reverend Harper, present a Biblical view of environmentalism and climate change activism derived from the Biblical principles as follows:

(1): Advances in science and technology by humans have weakened our connection with nature.

(2) This weakening led to denial of the spiritual identity of nature. Laudato Si’ makes this denial clear by pointing our that our technological advantage leads to increasing levels of control over nature by way of technological mastery.

(3) Technological advances provides the opportunity for humans to have a manipulative and extractive relationship with nature and derive unnatural gains from that relationship.

(4) Therefore we should seek an equal and spiritual relationship with nature that is respectful and loving. The creatures of nature are our brothers and sisters united with us by affection. These bonds have been corrupted and destroyed by the technological superiority of humans. We have all experienced moments of spiritual and moral bonds with nature and with the creation that blesses our world. That should be our only relationship with nature – not as the masters of nature but i terms of the common bond as God’s creations.

(5) This view provides the basis for environmentalism and for taking action against climate change as prescribed by climate science – for example, by ceasing the use of fossil fuels and moving to renewable energy sources that are kinder to and more respectful of nature. We are not the lords and masters of nature but just fellow creatures that are equal under the Creator who created us all.

(6) This view is 180 degrees at odds with the Biblical view in Genesis which says that humans have dominion over the beasts where the word beasts implies all of nature not including man. That God has a special relationship with man is deeply and profoundly expressed in all aspects of religion. For example, there is no heaven or hell for the beasts.

(7) That this view is now being denied by the clergy to pursue environmentalism in the form of climate activism is at odds with environmentalism itself because environmentalism is a human enterprise in which humans are the masters and caretakers of nature. The idea of human caused global warming and climate change and the management of climate by humans derives from this view in which humans are the managers of the planet and humans will determine the fate of the planet.

(8) The ultimate expression of environmentalism and the climate change movement is the Anthropocene. It is the expression that humans are now the primary geological force shaping the future of nature and the planet itself. This view of environmentalism firmly establishes the “Dominion” role of humans in environmentalism to the extent that humans have created their own geological epoch. Humans are now in charge of taking care of the planet and dialing in the right kind of climate for it and for the beasts. This aspect of environmentalism and climate change is described in related posts on this site linked below and explained by climate scientists and environmentalists in the videos below.

(9) LINKS TO RELATED POSTS ON THE ANTHROPOCENE:

LINK#1: https://tambonthongchai.com/?s=ANTHROPOCENE

LINK#2: https://tambonthongchai.com/2018/07/13/the-anthropocene-fallacy/

LINK#3: https://tambonthongchai.com/2010/05/16/171/

LINK#4: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/09/22/things-eco-nuts-worry-about/

LINK#5: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/05/20/praise-the-climate-science-and-save-the-planet/

LINK#6: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/03/15/noaas-ark/

(10) THE PETER SINGER INTERPRETATION OF GENESIS, PETER SINGER, PROFESSOR OF BIOETHICS AT PRINCETON UNIVERSITY HAS WRITTEN ON THIS ISSUE TO RE-INTERPRET DOMINION OVER THE BEASTS AS BEING KIND TO THE BEASTS. HE CONCLUDES THAT THEREFORE THE “DOMINION OVER THE BEASTS” OF GENESIS IS ACTUALLY GOD’S CALL TO ENVIRONMENTALISM AND THAT LAUDATO SI IS THE CLARIFICATION OF THIS BIBLICAL PUZZLE ON THE SIDE OF ENVIRONMENTALISM AND CLIMATE ACTION TO SAVE THE BEASTS FROM ARTIFICIAL CLIMATE CHANGE. LINK TO PETER SINGER: https://flaglerlive.com/81760/dominion-singer/#:~:text=Mainstream%20Christian%20thinking%20about%20animals,dominion%20over%20all%20the%20animals. Yet, the Dominion issue is not one of cruelty or kindness but one of power. To repeat, God’s special relationship with man is seen for example in things like heaven and hell and Adam and Eve as well as things like prophets and the rules of living in harmony in human societies as in “thou shalt not kill”. God’s entire attention is to humans and the Dominion clause of Genesis puts humans in charge of nature in the same way as that role is now envisioned by climate scientists as the Anthropocene.

The original and unbiased interpretation of Genesis is that humans are the managers of nature and this principle is the foundation of environmentalism to the point where the human managers of nature may intervene when nature is deemed too cruel by humans. This odd aspect of environmentalism, commonly known as the Bambi Principle, is explained by George Carlin in the video below.

What if Adam and Eve didn't sin? - Quora
The Creation of Adam - Wikipedia
Quotes about Religion and science (269 quotes)

Neil Young News: REVIEW: "WHAT'S THAT SOUND? Buffalo Springfield Box" by  Harvey Kubernik

THERE’S SOMETHING HAPPENING HERE.

WHAT IT IS AINT EXACTLY CLEAR.

IT’S NOT THE CLIMATE CHANGE.

IT’S NOT THE COVID.

IT’S A WHOLE DIFFERENT SOMETHING

WHERE IN THE TIME OF COVID, THOUSANDS GATHER

SHOULDER TO SHOULDER

Thailand protests: Thousands rally for third straight day despite  government ban - BBC News
In Pictures: Tensions high in Thailand as protests continue | Thailand | Al  Jazeera
Thailand protests: Riot police fire water cannon as protesters defy rally  ban - BBC News
Thai protests: Tens of thousands gather again in mass defiance of  government - BBC News
Thai Protesters Plan Rally While Evading Authorities - BNN Bloomberg

TRUMP VS AAAS SCIENTISTS | Thongchai Thailand

RELATED POSTS ON EVENT ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE:

LINK#1: https://tambonthongchai.com/2018/07/10/event-attribution-science-a-case-study/

LINK#2; https://tambonthongchai.com/2018/08/03/confirmationbias/

LINK#3: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/07/16/the-internal-variability-issue/

ABSTRACT

(1) Extreme weather event attribution post hoc is subject to confirmation bias and data selection bias. (2) The attribution of localized extreme weather events to AGW overlooks the Internal Climate Variability issue. (3) The attribution of selected tropical cyclones or tropical cyclone seasons in a single cyclone basin violates the climate science position on the tropical cyclone issue in Knutson etal 2010 that says that only trends in decadal means of tropical cyclone activity in all six cyclone basins over a sufficiently long time span of 30 years or more can be considered for such attribution. (4) The linked posts provided at the end of this document expose the activism and advocacy priority of climate science in pushing for climate action and the advocacy priority provides the motive for climate science to seek out ways to create fear of AGW with extreme weather events. (5) The use of high variance to compute large confidence intervals and then to use the end of the confidence interval that suits the need of creating the extreme weather fear for AGW is biased and a flawed understanding of uncertainty. Large confidence intervals mean we don’t really know. They don’t mean Oh look how high it could be. (6): A serious flaw in these analyses is circular reasoning, confirmation bias, and advocacy bias that looks for AGW as the only causation mechanism. Other variables are not studied. For example in forest fires forest management practices are overlooked with a single minded focus on heat and dryness attributed to AGW as the only cause of all things bad. (7): There is an assumption in these studies that all bad things that occur during a time of AGW must have been caused by AGW. This assumption is deeply flawed and deeply embedded in climate change impact studies. For example, the same Diffenbaugh that we cite in this work is also the author of the income inequality paper discussed in a related post: LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2019/04/25/inequality/. where he found growing inequality between rich countries and poor countries and since this trend is found during a time of climate change he concluded that it was caused by climate change and rationalized it in terms of hot poor countries and cool rich countries. As shown in the related post cited above, his findings are flawed because his methodology is flawed but this flawed methodology is common in climate science particularly so in extreme weather attribution. (8): Extreme weather event attribution to AGW by climate scientists is not credible in this light.

Extreme Realities: The Link Between Severe Weather, Climate Change, and Our  National Security | Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs

THE EXTREME WEATHER HYPOTHESIS OF CLIMATE SCIENCE

NBC NEWS AUGUST 2018: Aug. 19, 2018, 4:55 PM +07 / Updated Aug. 20, 2018, 3:27 AM +07By James Rainey. When the heat waves, droughts, wildfires and deluges come — as they seem to with increasing regularity these days — the question inevitably arises: Did climate change play a role? The answer scientists gave for years was that greenhouse gases created by humans likely contributed to extreme weather, but it was hard to definitively tie the warming atmosphere to any single episode. But that cautious approach, repeated in thousands of news reports for more than a decade, has been changing in recent months. Now, scientists say that they will increasingly be able to link extreme weather events to human-caused global warming and to make such determinations quickly, sometimes within days. So when a heat wave beset Northern Europe early this summer, bringing temperatures in Scandinavia into the 90s, a consortium of researchers operating under the name World Weather Attribution whipped together a series of computer simulations. Within three days, the scientists issued a finding that the hot spell had been made at least twice as likely because of human-driven climate change.

CARBON BRIEF: April 15. 2020. Mapped: How climate change affects extreme weather around the world. In the early 2000s, a new field of climate-science research emerged that began to explore the human fingerprint on extreme weather, such as floods, heatwaves, droughts and storms. Known as “extreme event attribution”, the field has gained momentum, not only in the science world, but also in the media and public imagination. These studies have the power to link the seemingly abstract concept of climate change with personal and tangible experiences of the weather. Scientists have published more than 300 peer-reviewed studies looking at weather extremes around the world, from wildfires in Alaska and hurricanes in the Caribbean to flooding in France and heatwaves in China. The result is mounting evidence that human activity is raising the risk of some types of extreme weather, especially those linked to heat. To track how the evidence on this fast-moving topic is stacking up, Carbon Brief has mapped every extreme-weather attribution study published to date. 69% of the 355 extreme weather events and trends included in the map were found to be made more likely or more severe by human-caused climate change and 9% of events or trends were made less likely or less severe by climate change. , meaning 78% of all events experienced some human impact. The remaining 22% of events and trends showed no discernible human influence or were inconclusive. Heatwaves account for 47% of such events, while droughts and heavy rainfall or floods each make up 15%. Of the 125 attribution studies that have looked at extreme heat around the world, 93% found that climate change made the event or trend more likely or more severe. For the 68 studies looking at rainfall or flooding, 54% found human activity had made the event more likely or more severe. For the 61 drought events studied, it’s 61%.

ENVIRONMENTAL DEFENSE FUND 2020: Extreme weather gets a boost from climate change. Scientists are detecting a stronger link between the planet’s warming and its changing weather patterns. Though it can be hard to pinpoint whether climate change intensified a particular weather event, the trajectory is clear — hotter heat waves, drier droughts, bigger storm surges and greater snowfall. Heat and drought. The dangerous effects of heat waves, including death, occur as a result of both temperature and humidity — especially if those conditions persist for more than two days. With temperature records being smashed month after month, year after year, it’s likely that human-caused global warming is making extreme heat events more frequent. Higher temperatures also boost evaporation, which dries out the soil in summer intensifying drought over many areas. As more evaporation leads to more moisture in the atmosphere, rainfall intensifies. We now know that the rainfall from Hurricane Harvey was 15 percent more intense and three times as likely to occur due to human-induced climate change. We expect to see a higher frequency of Category 4 and 5 storms as temperatures continue to rise. Clouds that can dump a lot of rain are more common in a warmer atmosphere. While scientists aren’t certain about whether climate change has led to more hurricanes, they are confident that rising sea levels are leading to higher storm surges and more floods. Around half of sea-level rise since 1900 comes from the expansion of warming oceans, triggered by human-caused global warming. The rest of the rise comes from melting glaciers and ice sheets. There is more moisture in a warmer atmosphere, which can lead to record snowfall. It may seem counterintuitive, but the increase in snowfall during winter storms may be linked to climate change. There is more moisture in the warmer atmosphere. So when the temperatures are below freezing, snowfall can break records. And scientists are studying a possible connection between a warming Arctic and cold spells in the eastern United States. The idea is that a rapidly warming Arctic can weaken the jet stream, allowing frigid polar air to travel farther south.

cars buried in snow

CBS NEWS: NOVEMBER 2015; Report: Human-caused climate change exacerbates extreme weather. SAN FRANCISCO– Government scientists said Thursday that 14 of last year’s extreme weather events were made worse by climate change caused by pollution including the 2014 California wildfires, and the cyclones in Hawaii. In a recent development, California continues to feel the effects of climate change. Most years the Dungeness crab harvest in California is bountiful and worth close to $60 million, but this year there may not be any harvest. High levels of toxic algae in the ocean make the crab too dangerous to eat. The widespread algae bloom is because of unusually high temperatures in the Pacific. It’s unbelievably warm. We have never had a warming event like this — the extent of it, the different contributing factors, and how this going to play out this season leads scientists to have huge concerns. Extreme heat events are one focus of the report on the impact of climate change around the world. The study found that in 2014, extreme heat waves, like one that gripped South Korea, were made worse by human-caused climate change which includes things such as car emissions, burning coal and methane gas. The report studied 28 extreme weather events around the world last year & 14 of those — including devastating floods in Australia and New Zealand — were found to be made worse in part by climate change. But the impact of human activity can be complex. In the United States, record snowfall in the Northeast and Midwest was not a result of climate change — rather, just cyclical weather patterns. However, the study says severe wildfires in California are becoming more likely because of global warming. Climate change is causing a lot of unfortunate, disastrous impacts around the world. This is the 4th year scientists have studied whether human activity is at least partially to blame for such things as heat waves, droughts, and wildfires. Over those years, more than half the extreme weather events studied have been linked to human-caused climate change.

STANFORD NEWS: 2020; Influence of global warming on extreme weather events has been underestimated. Analysis shows global warming is intensifying the occurrence of unprecedented hot spells and downpours faster than predicted by historical trends. New approaches for incorporating global warming into extreme weather analysis could improve global risk management. A common scientific approach of predicting the likelihood of future extreme weather events by analyzing how frequently they occurred in the past can lead to significant underestimates with significant consequences for people’s lives. A new analysis shows global warming is intensifying the occurrence of unprecedented hot spells and downpours faster than predicted by historical trends. Stanford Climate Scientist Noah Diffenbaugh found that predictions that relied only on historical observations underestimated by about half the actual number of extremely hot days in Europe and East Asia, and the number of extremely wet days in the U.S., Europe and East Asia. The paper, published March 18 in Science Advances, illustrates how even small increases in global warming can cause large upticks in the probability of extreme weather events, particularly heat waves and heavy rainfall. We are seeing year after year how the rising incidence of extreme events is causing significant impacts on people and ecosystems. One of the main challenges in becoming more resilient to these extremes is accurately predicting how the global warming that’s already happened has changed the odds of events that fall outside of our historical experience. We live in a changing world. For decades, engineers, land-use planners and risk managers have used historical weather observations from thermometers, rain gauges and satellites to calculate the probability of extreme events. Those calculations meant to inform projects ranging from housing developments to highways have traditionally relied on the assumption that the risk of extremes could be assessed using only historical observations. However, a warming world has made many extreme weather events more frequent, intense and widespread, a trend that is likely to intensify. Scientists trying to isolate the influence of human-caused climate change on the probability and/or severity of individual weather events have faced two major obstacles. There are relatively few such events in the historical record, making verification difficult, and global warming is changing the atmosphere and ocean in ways that may have already affected the odds of extreme weather conditions. Diffenbaugh is the Kara J Foundation professor at Stanford’s School of Earth, Energy & Environmental Sciences. He reviewed previous extreme weather event papers that he and his colleagues had published in recent years. He wondered if he could use the frequency of record-setting weather events from 2006 to 2017 to evaluate the predictions his group had made using data from 1961 to 2005. He found in some cases the actual increase in extreme events was much larger than what had been predicted. When he first looked at the results, he had this sinking feeling that his method for analyzing these extreme events could be all wrong. As it turned out, the method actually worked very well for the period that we had originally analyzed. It’s just that global warming has had a stronger effect over the last decade. He also found that climate models were able to more accurately predict the future occurrence of record-setting events. While acknowledging that climate models still contain important uncertainties, the study identifies the potential for new techniques that incorporate both historical observations and climate models to create more accurate, robust risk management tools.

MORE ABOUT PROFESSOR DIFFENBAUGH:LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/06/29/diffenbaugh-2017-extreme-weather-of-climate-change/

noah

NATIONAL ACDADEMIES 2020: Global warming is making some extreme weather events worse. As Earth’s climate has warmed, a new pattern of more frequent and more intense weather events has unfolded around the world. Scientists identify these extreme weather events based on the historical record of weather in a particular region. They consider extreme weather events to be those that produce unusually high or low levels of rain or snow, temperature, wind, or other effects. Typically, these events are considered extreme if they are unlike 90% or 95% of similar weather events that happened before in that same area. Global warming can contribute to the intensity of heat waves by increasing the chances of very hot days and nights. Warming air also boosts evaporation, which can worsen drought. More drought creates dry fields and forests that are prone to catching fire, and increasing temperatures mean a longer wildfire season. Global warming also increases water vapor in the atmosphere, which can lead to more frequent heavy rain and snowstorms. A warmer and more moist atmosphere over the oceans makes it likely that the strongest hurricanes will be more intense, produce more rainfall, and possibly be larger. In addition, global warming causes sea level to rise, which increases the amount of seawater, along with more rainfall, that is pushed on to shore during coastal storms. That seawater, along with more rainfall, can result in destructive flooding. While global warming is likely making hurricanes more intense, scientists don’t know yet if global warming is increasing the number of hurricanes each year. The effect of global warming on the frequency, intensity, size, and speed of hurricanes remains a subject of scientific research. Many factors contribute to any individual extreme weather event. Extreme weather events are influenced by many factors in addition to global warming. Daily and seasonal weather patterns and natural climate patterns such as El Niño or La Niña affect when and where extreme weather events take place. For example, many studies have linked an increase in wildfire activity to global warming. In addition, the risk of a fire could depend on past forest management, natural climate variability, human activities, and other factors, in addition to human-caused climate change. Determining how much climate change contributes to extreme weather events such as wildfires continues to be studied. New scientific approaches make it possible to determine how global warming affected individual extreme weather events. Even a decade ago, it was hard to link a specific weather event, such as a heat wave or an intense rainstorm, with climate changes happening on a global scale. However, climate scientists are getting better at making these kinds of connections, called extreme event attribution. These studies can’t say whether global warming caused a specific event—but they can look at whether the warming climate made an event more severe or more likely to happen. Scientists use computer models to simulate weather conditions with and without global warming and other contributing factors. By comparing different scenarios, they can identify how global warming has affected observed extreme weather events. For example, scientists completed extreme event attribution studies after Hurricane Harvey soaked Texas in 2017 with record-breaking rains of more than 60 inches in some places. They concluded that global warming worsened the flooding and made a Harvey-sized storm at least three times more likely. Understanding global warming’s impacts on extreme weather is important because it can help inform choices about managing risks. For example, if a community knows that increased rainfall from global warming has turned what was previously a “500-year flood” into a “100-year flood” (or more accurately: a flood that had a 1-in-500 chance of happening each year into a 1-in-100 chance of happening each year), it may make different choices about how to manage land, what and where people can build, or whether to build a floodwall.

SKEPTICAL SCIENCE: 2015: WHAT THE DENIERS SAY: There is growing empirical evidence that warming temperatures cause more intense hurricanes, heavier rainfalls and flooding, increased conditions for wildfires and dangerous heat waves. The 30 major droughts of the 20th century were likely natural in all respects; and, hence, they are “indicative of what could also happen in the future,” as Narisma et al. state in their concluding paragraph. And happen they will. Consequently, the next time a serious drought takes hold of some part of the world and the likes of Al Gore blame it on the “carbon footprints” of you and your family, ask them why just the opposite of what their hypothesis suggests actually occurred over the course of the 20th century, i.e., why, when the earth warmed – and at a rate and to a degree that they claim was unprecedented overthousands of years – the rate-of-occurrence of severe regional droughts actually declined.” (source: CO2 Science) WHAT THE SCIENCE SAYS; There are numerous examples of increased extreme weather frequency already being attributed to humans in the published peer-reviewed scientific literature. For example, Pall et al. (2011): “Here we present a multi-step, physically based ‘probabilistic event attribution’ framework showing that it is very likely that global anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions substantially increased the risk of flood occurrence in England and Wales in autumn 2000”. Min et al. (2011): “Here we show that human-induced increases in greenhouse gases have contributed to the observed intensification of heavy precipitation events found over approximately two-thirds of data-covered parts of Northern Hemisphere land areas.” Dai et al. (2011): “All the four forms of the PDSI show widespread drying over Africa, East and South Asia, and other areas from 1950 to 2008, and most of this drying is due to recent warming. The global percentage of dry areas has increased by about 1.74% (of global land area) per decade from 1950 to 2008.” Zwiers et al. (2011): “Therefore, it is concluded that the influence of anthropogenic forcing has had a detectable influence on extreme temperatures that have impacts on human society and natural systems at global and regional scales”. Coumou & Rahmstorf (2012): “Here, we review the evidence and argue that for some types of extreme — notably heatwaves, but also precipitation extremes — there is now strong evidence linking specific events or an increase in their numbers to the human influence on climate. For other types of extreme, such as storms, the available evidence is less conclusive, but based on observed trends and basic physical concepts it is nevertheless plausible to expect an increase.”. Hansen et al. (2012): “we can state, with a high degree of confidence, that extreme anomalies such as those in Texas and Oklahoma in 2011 and Moscow in 2010 were a consequence of global warming because their likelihood in the absence of global warming was exceedingly small.”Source: NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center GISS and Scientific Visualization Studio.

Like Hansen et al., Donat and Alexander (2012) found that global warming has made extreme heat waves more likely to occur. “…there is a 40% increase in more recent decades in the number of extreme temperatures defined by the warmest 5% of the 1951–1980 distribution.” Like Coumou & Rahmstorf, Otto et al. (2012) found that global warming contributed to the intensity of the extreme 2010 Russian heat wave, concluding there was “…a three-fold increase in the risk of the 2010 threshold being exceeded, supporting the assertion that the risk of the event occurring was mainly attributable to the external trend.” While it is very difficult to attribute individual weather events to global warming, we do know that climate change will ‘load the dice’ and result in more frequent extreme weather events. The IPCC Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation (SREX), also discusses the relationship between human-caused climate change and various types of extreme weather events. For example, the SREX says: “It is likely that anthropogenic influences have led to warming of extreme daily minimum and maximum temperatures at the global scale. There is medium confidence that anthropogenic influences have contributed to intensification of extreme precipitation at the global scale. It is likely that there has been an anthropogenic influence on increasing extreme coastal high water due to an increase in mean sea level.” and “Extreme weather and climate events, interacting with exposed and vulnerable human and natural systems, can lead to disasters.”

On drought, the SREX finds: “There is medium confidence that some regions of the world have experienced more intense and longer droughts, in particular in southern Europe and West Africa, but in some regions droughts have become less frequent, less intense, or shorter, for example, in central North America and northwestern Australia.” The SREX also has important conclusions regarding future drought changes: “There is medium confidence that droughts will intensify in the 21st century in some seasons and areas, due to reduced precipitation and/or increased evapotranspiration. This applies to regions including southern Europe and the Mediterranean region, central Europe, central North America, Central America and Mexico, northeast Brazil, and southern Africa.” This conclusion is supported by Dai (2010), for example: “Regions like the United States have avoided prolonged droughts during the last 50 years due to natural climate variations, but might see persistent droughts in the next 20–50 years

Research by Emanuel (2012), Grinsted et al. (2013), and Holland and Bruyère (2013) concluded that global warming has already led to more intense hurricanes. Elsner et al. (2008) found that: “With the exception of the South Pacific Ocean, all tropical cyclone basins show increases in the lifetime-maximum wind speeds of the strongest storms … Our results are qualitatively consistent with the hypothesis that as the seas warm, the ocean has more energy to convert to tropical cyclone wind. We have probably crossed the threshold where Katrina magnitude hurricane surges are more likely caused by global warming than not.”

Extreme Weather Obfuscation and Misdirection: More frequently we are seeing climate contrarians dispute that human-caused climate change is impacting extreme weather events, often through misdirection by focusing on economic losses associated with extreme weather, rather than the frequency of the events themselves. There is a silver lining in this cloud of obfuscation – climate contrarians appear to be retreating more and more away from the “it’s not happening” and “it’s not us” myths, toward the “it’s not bad” fallback position.

CENTER FOR CLIMATE AND ENERGY SOLUTIONS 2020;

One of the most visible consequences of a warming world is an increase in the intensity and frequency of extreme weather events. The National Climate Assessment finds that the number of heat waves, heavy downpours, and major hurricanes has increased in the United States, and the strength of these events has increased, too. A measure of the economic impact of extreme weather is the increasing number of billion-dollar disasters, which is shown below. The map shows all types of weather disasters, some of which are known to be influenced by climate change (floods, tropical storms) and some for which a climate influence is uncertain (tornadoes).

Billion-Dollar Extreme Weather Events, 2000-2020

Click on any circle to learn about one of the billion-dollar weather events, or any state to learn about billion-dollar droughts, between January 2000 and July 2020. Source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Climatic Data Center. The Top 10 costliest events are listed at the bottom of this page, along with a description of major U.S. droughts since 2000. NOAA calculates total, direct costs – both insured and uninsured – including physical damage to residential, commercial, and government buildings, material assets within buildings, public infrastructure, vehicles and boats, offshore energy platforms, and agricultural assets, as well as business interruption losses and disaster restoration and wildfire suppression costs. These estimates do not account for losses to natural capital, health care related costs, or values associated with loss of life.

Climate change is expected to worsen the frequency, intensity, and impacts of some types of extreme weather events. For example, sea level rise increases the impacts of coastal storms and warming can place more stress on water supplies during droughts. That’s why many cities, state, and businesses are taking steps to prepare for more extreme weather. A Closer Look at Business Resilience examines how companies are preparing for climate risks and what is keeping them from doing more. It also suggests strategies for companies and cities to collaborate to strengthen climate resilience. It updates the groundbreaking report, Weathering the Storm, Building Business Resilience to Climate Change, which provided a baseline for how companies were assessing their climate vulnerabilities.

Top 10 U.S. Disasters by Cost Since 2000. Event and Date Cost in billions (2020 USD). (unadjusted cost) Fatalities Description

Hurricane Katrina
August 2005 $170.0
($125) 1,833 Hurricane Katrina initially hit as a Category 1 near Miami, Fla., then as a stronger Category 3 along the eastern La.-western Miss. coastlines, resulting in severe storm surge damage (maximum surge probably exceeded 30 feet) along the La.-Miss.-Ala. coasts, wind damage, and the failure of parts of the levee system in New Orleans. High winds and some flooding occurred in Ala., Fla., Ga., Ind., Ky., Miss., Ohio and Tenn.
Hurricane Harvey
August 2017 $131.3
($125) 89 Hurricane Harvey made landfall as a Category 4 hurricane near Rockport, Texas. A large region of extreme rainfall produced historic flooding across Houston and surrounding areas. More than 30 inches of rainfall fell on 6.9 million people (and some areas experienced over 50 inches) based on 7-day rainfall totals. The resulting flooding displaced over 30,000 people and damaged or destroyed over 200,000 homes and businesses.
Hurricane Maria
September 2017 $94.5
($90) 2,981 Hurricane Maria initially hit St. Croix and made landfall in southeast Puerto Rico as a Category 4 and strengthened to a Category 5 storm. The hurricane dropped 37 inches of rain, causing widespread flooding and landslides. The heavy winds caused extensive damage to the island’s agriculture, communication, transportation, and energy infrastructure. The hurricane was one of the deadliest storms to hit the United States, with significant indirect deaths in the storm’s aftermath.
Hurricane Sandy
October 2012 $74.1
($65) 159 Hurricane Sandy caused extensive damage across several northeastern states (Conn., Del., Mass., Md., N.J., N.Y., R.I.) due to high wind and coastal storm surge, particularly in N.J. and N.Y. Damage from wind, rain and heavy snow also extended more broadly to other states (N.C., N.H., Ohio, Pa., Va., W.Va.), as Sandy merged with a developing Nor’easter. Sandy interrupted critical water and electrical services in major population centers and caused 159 deaths (72 direct, 87 indirect). Sandy also shut down the New York Stock Exchange for two consecutive business days, the first time a weather event caused a closing since a major winter storm in 1888.
Hurricane Irma
September 2017 $52.5
($50) 97 Hurricane Irma made landfall as a Category 4 hurricane at Cudjoe Key, Fla. after devastating the U.S. Virgin Islands— St John and St Thomas — as a Category 5 storm. 25% of buildings were destroyed and 65% were significantly damaged in the Florida Keys. Severe wind and storm surge occurred along the coasts of Florida and South Carolina. Irma maintained a maximum sustained wind of 185 mph for 37 hours, the longest in the satellite era. Irma also was a Category 5 storm for longer than all other Atlantic hurricanes except Ivan in 2004.
Hurricane Ike
September 2008 $36.9
($30) 112 Hurricane Ike made landfall in Texas as a Category 2 hurricane. It was the largest Atlantic hurricane on record by size, causing a considerable storm surge in coastal TX and significant wind and flooding damage in Ark., Ill., Ind., Ky., La., Mich., Mo., Ohio, Pa., Tenn. and Texas.
U.S. Drought/Heatwave
2012 $34.2
($30) 123 The 2012 drought is one of the most extensive to affect the United States since the 1930s, affecting more than half the country with major impacts to corn and soybean production, and deadly summer heat causing 123 deaths.
Hurricane Ivan
September 2004 $28.7
($20.5) 57 Hurricane Ivan made landfall on Gulf coast of Ala. as a Category 3 hurricane, with significant wind, storm surge, and flooding damage in coastal Ala. and Fla. Panhandle, along with wind/flood damage in the states of Ga., Miss., La., S.C., N.C., Va., W.Va., Md., Tenn., Ky., Ohio, Del., N.J., Pa., and N.Y.
Hurricane Wilma
October 2005 $25.8
($19) 35 Hurricane Wilma hit SW Florida as a Category 3 hurricane, resulting in strong damaging winds and major flooding across southeastern Florida. Prior to landfall, Wilma as a Category 5 recorded the lowest pressure (882 mb) ever recorded in the Atlantic basin.
Hurricane Michael
October 2018 $25
($25) 49 Hurricane Michael made landfall at Mexico Beach, Fla. as a powerful Category 4 hurricane with devastating winds of 155 mph and storm surge in excess of 15 feet. Mexico Beach was nearly destroyed, while Panama City suffered extensive damage. Michael’s intense winds caused billions in damages to agriculture and forestry far inland.

U.S. Drought Events Since 2000. Date Cost in billions (2020 USD)
(unadjusted cost) Description States
2018 $3.1
($3.0) Many states were affected by extreme drought. Drought conditions persisted in the Four Corners region of the Southwest, causing damage to crops. Ariz., Colo., Kan., Mo., N.M., Okla., Texas, Utah
2017 $2.6
($2.5) Severe drought damaged agricultural crops, including wheat. Lack of feed forced ranchers to sell their cattle. This drought increased wildfire risk leading up to the 2017 wildfires. Mont., N.D., S.D.
2016 $3.8
($3.5) In California, the 5-year drought continued, destroying over 100 million trees. Stressed water supplies in the Northeast and Southeast impacted agricultural production. Ala., Calif., Conn., Ga., Mass., N.H., N.J., N.Y., Pa., R.I., Tenn., Vt.
2015 $5.0
($4.5) Drought conditions continued to affect California throughout 2015, heavily impacting the agricultural sector. Drought conditions improved in Texas and Oklahoma due to several major flood events. Ariz., Calif., Idaho, Mont., Nev., Ore., Utah, Wash.
2014 $4.4
($4.0) California experienced the worst drought on record. Surrounding states and parts of Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas continued to experience severe drought conditions. Ariz., Calif., Kan., Nev., N.M., Okla., Ore., Texas
2013 $11.7
($10.4) Drought conditions slowly improved in Midwestern and Plains states but continued in western states. Moderate crop losses occurred across the central agricultural states and the heat caused 53 deaths. Ariz., Calif., Colo., Iowa, Idaho, Ill., Kan., Mich., Minn., Mo., N.D., Neb., N.M., Nev., Okla., Ore., S.D., Texas, Utah, Wash., Wis., Wyo.
2012 $34.2
($30.0) The 2012 drought was the most extensive since the 1930s. Moderate to extreme drought conditions affected more than half the country. Costly drought impacts occurred in central states, with widespread harvest failure. The summer heatwave caused 123 direct deaths. Calif., Nev., Idaho, Mont., Wyo., Utah, Colo., Ariz., N.M., Texas, N.D., S.D., Neb., Kan., Okla., Ark., Mo., Iowa, Minn., Ill., Ind., Ga.
2011 $14.0
($12.0) Drought and heat wave conditions persisted. The majority of range and pastures in Texas and Oklahoma were in “very poor” condition. Heat conditions caused to 95 deaths. Ariz., Kan., La., N.M., Okla., Texas
2009 $4.3
($3.5) Drought conditions persisted across parts of the Southwest, Great Plains, and southern Texas, with Texas and California suffering the most agricultural losses. Ariz., Calif., Kan., N.M., Okla., Texas
2008 $8.6
($7.0) Severe drought and heat caused agricultural losses in areas of the South and West. Record low lake levels also occurred in areas of the Southeast. Ala., Ark., Calif., Colo., Ga., Idaho, Ind., Kan., Ky., Md., Minn., Miss., Mont., N.C., N.D., N.J., N.M., Ohio, Okla., Ore., S.C., Tenn., Texas, Utah, Va., Wash., Wis.
2007 $4.5
($3.5) Severe drought with periods of extreme heat resulted in major crop yield loss, reduced stream flows and lake levels, and caused 15 deaths. Ala., Ark., Fla., Ga., Ill., Ind., Iowa, Kan., Ky., La., Mich., Minn., Miss., Mo., N.C., N.D., N.Y., Neb., Ohio, Okla., Pa., S.C., S.D., Tenn., Texas, Va., Wis., W.Va.
2006 $7.8
($6.0) Severe drought affected crops, caused wildfires and low streams and rivers in the Great Plains and portions of the South and far West. Ala., Ark., Colo., Fla., Ga., Iowa, Kan., La., Minn., Miss., Mo., Mont., N.D., N.M., Neb., Okla., S.D., Texas, Wyo.
2005 $2.0
($1.5) Severe localized drought caused significant crop losses, especially for corn and soybeans. Ark., Ill., Ind., Mo., Ohio, Wis.
2003 $7.1
($5.0) Drought across western and central portions of the United States with losses to agriculture. Thirty-five deaths were caused by the heatwave. Ariz., Colo., Idaho, Ill., Iowa, Kan., Mich., Minn., Mo., Mont., N.D., N.D., N.M., Neb., Ore., S.D., Wash., Wis.
2002 $13.1
($9.0) Large portions of 30 states experienced moderate to extreme drought conditions. Ala., Ariz., Calif., Colo., Conn., Del., Fla., Ga., Idaho, Iowa, Kan. La., Maine, Md., Mich., Miss., Mo., Mont., Neb., Nev., N.M., N.C., N.D., Ohio, Okla., Ore., Pa., R.I., S.C., S.D., Texas, Utah, Va., Wyo.
2000 $7.6
($5.0) Severe drought and persistent heat over south-central and southeastern states caused significant losses to agriculture and related industries. The heat caused 140 deaths. Ala., Ariz., Ark., Calif., Colo., Fla., Ga., Iowa, Kan., La., Miss., Mont., Neb., N.M., Okla., Ore. S.C., Tenn., Texas

How Many Real Biases Are There? | SpringerLink

(1) RESPONSE TO THE EXTREME WEATHER HYPOTHESIS OF CLIMATE SCIENCE: PART-1: WHAT CLIMATE SCIENTISTS SAY ABOUT THEIR METHODOLOGY

THESE QUOTES FROM CLIMATE SCIENTISTS PROVIDE EVIDENCE THAT FINDINGS OF RESEARCH IN CLIMATE CHANGE ARE MOSTLY THE CREATION OF CONFIRMATION BIAS. 

  1. Reporting on climate change means forever being on the hunt for inflection points. Have global emissions peaked? When will the building of coal-fired power plants slow in, say, China? Has Arctic sea ice extent reached a record low?
  2. Every time the International Energy Agency (IEA) publishes a fresh report, journalists and analysts dive in to search for such nuggets buried in the data. This week, it released its latest annual “World Energy Investment” report and Carbon Brief’s Josh Gabbatiss rolled up his sleeves and pulled out the key charts for his summary article.
  3. Predictably, the Covid-19 crisis has had a dramatic impact on energy investment around the world. This year will see the largest ever fall in both investment and consumer spending on energy, said the IEA. However, the report also reveals various other insights. For example, it shows that, as demand and prices collapse, consumer spending on oil is expected to drop by more than $1tn, prompting a “historic switch” as spending on electricity exceeds oil for the first time.

(2) RESPONSE TO THE EXTREME WEATHER HYPOTHESIS OF CLIMATE SCIENCE: PART-2: COMMENTS ON EXTREME WEATHER RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

RELATED POST: CONFIRMATION BIAS: https://tambonthongchai.com/2018/08/03/confirmationbias/

RELATED POST: EVENT ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE: https://tambonthongchai.com/2018/07/10/event-attribution-science-a-case-study/

RELATED POST; THE INTERNAL CLIMATE VARIABILITY ISSUE IN CLIMATE SCIENCE: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/07/16/the-internal-variability-issue/ {“Internal climate variability limits the ability of climate science to attribute localized extreme weather events to anthropogenic global warming. Localized means geographically limited and Event means time span limited.“}

RELATED POST: WHAT DOES UNCERTAINTY MEAN? https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/04/22/climate-science-uncertainty/

RELATED POST: THE HIDDEN HAND OF ACTIVISM: https://tambonthongchai.com/2019/02/03/hidden-hand/

RELATED POST: ADVOCACY TRUMPS STATISTICS#1: https://tambonthongchai.com/2018/05/06/consensus-science/

RELATED POST: ADVOCACY TRUMPS STATISTICS#2: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/08/25/earth-system-models-and-carbon-budgets/

RELATED POST: ADVOCACY TRUMPS STATISTICS#3: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/04/09/climate-statistics/

RELATED POST: CLIMATE CHANGE AND WILDFIRES#1: https://tambonthongchai.com/2019/11/12/climate-change-wildfires/

RELATED POST: CLIMATE CHANGE AND WILDFIRES#2: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/08/21/climate-change-and-california-wildfires/

RELATED POST: CLIMATE CHANGE AND WILDFIRES#3; https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/09/26/global-warming-and-wildfires/

RELATED POST ON TROPICAL CYCLONES#1: https://tambonthongchai.com/2019/08/01/tropical-cyclones-climate-change/

RELATED POST ON TROPICAL CYCLONES#2: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/03/04/agwcyclones/

TRUMP VS AAAS SCIENTISTS | Thongchai Thailand
noah

CONCLUSION

(1) Extreme weather event attribution post hoc is subject to confirmation bias and data selection bias. (2) The attribution of localized extreme weather events to AGW overlooks the Internal Climate Variability issue. (3) The attribution of selected tropical cyclones or tropical cyclone seasons in a single cyclone basin violates the climate science position on the tropical cyclone issue in Knutson etal 2010 that says that only trends in decadal means of tropical cyclone activity in all six cyclone basins over a sufficiently long time span of 30 years or more can be considered for such attribution. (4) The linked posts above expose the activism and advocacy priority of climate science in pushing for climate action and the advocacy priority provides the motive for climate science to seek out ways to create fear of AGW with extreme weather events. (5) The use of high variance to compute large confidence intervals and then to use the end of the confidence interval that suits the need of creating the extreme weather fear for AGW is biased and a flawed understanding of uncertainty. Large confidence intervals mean we don’t really know. They don’t mean Oh look how high it could be. (6): A serious flaw in these analyses is circular reasoning, confirmation bias, and advocacy bias that looks for AGW as the only causation mechanism. Other variables are not studied. For example in forest fires forest management practices are overlooked with a single minded focus on heat and dryness attributed to AGW as the only cause of all things bad. (7): There is an assumption in these studies that all bad things that occur during a time of AGW must have been caused by AGW. This assumption is deeply flawed and deeply embedded in climate change impact studies. For example, the same Diffenbaugh that we cited above is also the author of the income inequality paper discussed in a related post: LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2019/04/25/inequality/. where he found growing inequality between rich countries and poor countries and since this trend is found during a time of climate change he concluded that it was caused by climate change and rationalized it in terms of hot poor countries and cool rich countries. As shown in the related post cited above, his findings are flawed because his methodology is flawed but this flawed methodology is common in climate science particularly so in extreme weather attribution. (8): Extreme weather event attribution to AGW by climate scientists is not credible in this light.

A huge iceberg just broke off Antarctica's Pine Island Glacier
Thwaites Glacier: If hole collapses from global warming, what happens?
Cracked: Pine Island Glacier | Copernicus
Thwaites Glacier is melting faster than thought - Tech Explorist

THIS POST IS A CRITICAL REVIEW OF A PNAS PAPER AND AN EARTHSKY ARTICLE ABOUT THAT PAPER DESCRIBING HOW ANTHROPOGENIC GLOBAL WARMING THREATENS THE PINE ISLAND GLACIER AND THE THWAITES GLACER IN WEST ANTARCTICA. (Maps above show their location).

LINK TO SOURCE: THE PNAS PAPER: https://www.pnas.org/content/117/40/24735 . THE EARTHSKY ARTICLE ABOUT THE PAPER: https://earthsky.org/earth/worsening-rifts-fractures-2-important-antarctic-glaciers

THE PNAS PAPER:

Damage accelerates ice shelf instability and mass loss in Amundsen Sea Embayment. Sainan Sun, Christopher Shuman, Bert Wouters, Frank Pattyn, Jan Wuite, Etienne Berthier, Thomas Nagler
PNAS October 6, 2020 117 (40) 24735-24741; September 2020; https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1912890117.

Significance: Pine Island Glacier and Thwaites Glacier in the Amundsen Sea Embayment are among the fastest changing outlet glaciers in Antarctica. Yet, projecting the future of these glaciers remains a major uncertainty for sea level rise. Here we use satellite imagery to show the development of damage areas with crevasses and open fractures on Pine Island and Thwaites ice shelves. These damage areas are first signs of their structural weakening as they precondition these ice shelves for disintegration. Model results that include the damage mechanism highlight the importance of damage for ice shelf stability, grounding line retreat, and future sea level contributions from Antarctica. Moreover, they underline the need for incorporating damage processes in models to improve sea level rise projections.

ABSTRACT: Pine Island Glacier and Thwaites Glacier in the Amundsen Sea Embayment are among the fastest changing outlet glaciers in West Antarctica with large consequences for global sea level. Yet, assessing how much and how fast both glaciers will weaken if these changes continue remains a major uncertainty as many of the processes that control their ice shelf weakening and grounding line retreat are not well understood. Here, we combine multisource satellite imagery with modeling to uncover the rapid development of damage areas in the shear zones of Pine Island and Thwaites ice shelves. These damage areas consist of highly crevassed areas and open fractures and are first signs that the shear zones of both ice shelves have structurally weakened over the past decade. Idealized model results reveal moreover that the damage initiates a feedback process where initial ice shelf weakening triggers the development of damage in their shear zones, which results in further speedup, shearing, and weakening, hence promoting additional damage development. This damage feedback potentially preconditions these ice shelves for disintegration and enhances grounding line retreat. The results of this study suggest that damage feedback processes are key to future ice shelf stability, grounding line retreat, and sea level contributions from Antarctica. Moreover, they underline the need for incorporating these feedback processes, which are currently not accounted for in most ice sheet models, to improve sea level rise projections.

 

THE EARTHSKY ARTICLE:  

Satellite imagery has revealed that 2 of the fastest-changing glaciers in Antarctica – Pine Island and Thwaites – are fracturing and weakening faster than ever, a step towards the glaciers’ disintegrating and causing sea levels to rise dramatically. The ice sheets of both glaciers can be seen fracturing and tearing apart. Satellite imagery has revealed fracturing and weakening of two of the fastest-changing glaciers on the Antarctic continent, the Pine Island and Thwaites glaciers. According to a new study, published October 6, 2020 in the peer-reviewed Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, the two glaciers are disintegrating faster than ever, and are responsible for a substantial 5% of global sea level rise. Together, the two glaciers, in an area of Antarctica called the Amundsen Sea Embayment, form an area of flowing ice the size of Norway, and hold enough water to raise global sea levels by over a meter. In recent decades, both of the glaciers have distinctly changed in form along with changing atmospheric and oceanic conditions, with the warming oceans causing ice shelves to melt, thin, and retreat. Using imaging data from several different satellites for from 1997-2016, the researchers looked at how the glacier and ice shelf elevation had changed over this time, and changes in the speed of moving ice. They found structural damage at what’s called the ‘shear margins’ of the glaciers’ ice shelves, where the ice transitions from fast-moving to slow-moving: large crevasses, rifts and open fractures that indicate that the ice shelves are slowly tearing apart. Stef Lhermitte of Delft University of Technology in the Netherlands is lead author of the new study. He said in a statement: Currently, the ice shelves are a little like a slow car in traffic: they force anything behind them to slow down. Once they’re removed, ice sitting further inland will be able to speed up, which in turn will cause sea levels to rise even faster. Animation of a transverse crack appearing in a large ice sheet. Rift evolution across the ice tongue – a long, narrow ice sheet extending seaward – of Antarctica’s Pine Island glacier (PIG) in September and October of 2018, as seen by the Copernicus Sentinel-1 mission. The video shows the emergence of an ice sheet rift in a region that was previously stable. Image via ESA. The team modeled the potential impact of the damaged shear margins. Study co-author Thomas Nagler of ENVEO in Austria, said: This fracturing appears to kick off a feedback process – it preconditions the ice shelves to disintegrate. As the glaciers fracture at their weak points this damage speeds up, spreads, and weakens more of the ice shelves, causing further deterioration – and making it more likely that the shelves will start crumbling apart even faster. As the ice shelves become increasingly damaged, the glaciers lose mass, and their ‘grounding lines’ – the region where ice sheets become buoyant enough to detach from the seafloor and float – retreat. Overall, the researchers said, damage feedback processes appear to be a key factor in the future stability of Antarctica’s ice shelves, and, in turn, in how fast the continent’s glaciers melt and cause global sea levels to rise. We know that a significant amount of glacial ice in West Antarctica is currently being affected by climate change. In fact, a recent study found 24% of this ice to be rapidly thinning and unstable. These new results underline just how quickly this damage is occurring, and reveal that Pine Island and Thwaites glaciers are more vulnerable than ever before. Bottom line: A video shows the evolution of damage to Antarctica’s Pine Island and Thwaites glaciers from October 2014 to July 2020. The video, made using satellite images, shows the ice sheets of both glaciers fracturing and tearing apart.

 

CRITICAL COMMENTARY

In a related post on the geological features of West Antarctica: [LINK] , we show that the West Antarctica region where The Thwaites and Pine Island Glaciers are located sits atop the West Antarctic Rift System (WARS). This long rift system cuts across most of West Antarctica. It is is more than 7 million square km  measuring 6,440 by 1127km. The West Antarctic Rift System is home to the Marie Byrd Mantle Plume Hotspot and more than 100 active volcanoes. A brief description of rifting is provided below {courtesy of the Engineering & Geosciences department of James Madison University JMU.EDU.} 

A Divergent plate boundary is where two lithospheric plates are being pulled apart by enormous amounts of energy in a geological process called rifting that creates new oceanic lithosphere. As the plates are pulled apart, Magma oozes up from the mantle. When rifting is complete a new divergent plate boundary and a new ocean basin is created. Rifting is initiated by magma plumes rising from deep in the mantle toward the surface. As the plume rises it heats the overlying lithosphere causing it to swell upward to create a hot spot. The magma that reaches the surface creates volcanoes. 
Eventually a long string of volcanos may form. When a mantle plume reaches the base of the continental lithosphere it spreads out creating a pond of magma. The overlying lithosphere heats and swells upward to form the hot spot, about 1000 km in diameter and 3 to 4 km above sea level. As the hot spot dome swells its upper surface stretches until the crust cracks and creates  faults.

All of West Antarctica is geologically active in this manner and the Pine island and Thwaites glaciers are located within the Marie Byrd Mantle Plume Hotspot which in turn is located within the West Antarctic Rift System. In the map below, red triangles indicate locations of active volcanoes. 

 

THE WEST ANTARCTIC RIFT SYSTEM (WARS)

Antarctic rift was active more recently than thought | EARTH Magazine

West Antarctic rift | The Lyncean Group of San Diego

 

THE MARIE BYRD MANTLE PLUME HOT SPOT

marie-byrd-mantle-plume | Thongchai Thailand

In the study of ice melt events in West Antarctica, these geological features and their associated volcanic activity underneath the Thwaites and Pine Island glaciers cannot be ignored in favor of an exclusive consideration of anthropogenic global warming by way of the greenhouse effect of atmospheric carbon dioxide thought to have been dangerously increased by fossil fuel emissions. 

As shown in a related post: [LINK] , in the period 1979 to 2019, the rate of warming in global mean temperature when averaged across all 12 calendar months was 1.3C per century with the rates for the individual calendar months ranging from 1.1C/century for the months of May and June to 1.55C/century for September and October.

In the Tropics, the warming rates are somewhat lower than at an average of 1.2C per century for all 12 calendar months with the corresponding monthly rates ranging from 0.9C for March to 1.7C for July. 

In the North, the warming rate is significantly higher for the Arctic region where the annual average rate is 2.57C per century and the monthly rates range from 1.4C for July to 3.8C for April. But a very different warming situation is found in the other polar region.

For the Antarctic South Polar Region we find a mean annual warming rate of 0.16C per century with the rates for the calendar months ranging from the winter months of June and July that are cooling at a rate of 1.7C per century to the summer month of November that is warming at 2.5C per century. Th six calendar months from April to September show cooling and the other six calendar months from October to March show warming. Since ice melt events in Antarctica are not seasonal, the relevant warming rate for that consideration is the very low annual mean rate of 0.16C per century.  This anthropogenic global warming rate for the South Polar region does not indicate that global warming there is the driver of ice melt events in Antarctica. 

Accordingly, climate science explains ice melt events in Antarctica in terms of anthropogenic global warming by way of ocean currents that bring warmth from the Tropics to the Antarctic. Ice melt events are explained in terms of the relative warmth of the Antarctic Deep Circumpolar Current and the warmth of the Deep Circumpolar current is explained in terms of heat transfer from the Tropics to the Antarctic by way of ocean currents. Ice melt events in Antarctica are then attributed to anthropogenic global warming on this basis. 

Turbulence in a climate model simulation of the Antarctic Circumpolar  Current [OC] - GIF on Imgur

There are two difficult and unresolved issues for the climate change theory of ice melt events in Antarctica in this manner. The first issue is that significant evidence exists not only for the for the relative warmth of the Deep Circumpolar Current but for ice melt events themselves in terms of geological heat implied by the geological features of West Antarctica described above. The relevant geothermal heat map is shown below (courtesy of Martos etal 2017) . A bibliography on this topic follows the Martos geothermal heat map.

 

CONCLUSION:  The claim that the observed ice melt events can be attributed to anthropogenic global warming and that such melt events can then be forecast as a predicter of the sea level rise of anthropogenic global warming is not possible in light of the complex episodic and localized event nature of ice melt in Antarctica and the clearer explanation of this phenomenon in terms of the known geological features of the region

If ice melt in Antarctica were driven by global warming it would be more uniform and more of a trend as in the Arctic and not isolated, episodic, and restricted to known geologically active locations. Glacial and ice shelf melt events that are restricted to geologically active locations of Antarctica cannot be understood as the impacts of fossil fuel emissions that can be moderated or prevented by taking climate action. For that, significant additional evidence must be provided that relates the melt events to atmospheric temperature data. No such evidence has been provided in this study where, as in all such studies, an atmosphere bias in the research methodology assumes that ice melt can only be explained in terms of anthropogenic global warming. 

 

The Martos etal geothermal heat map. . 

YASMINA-1

YASMINA-2

dziadek2017

 

ANTARCTICA GEOTHERMAL HEAT FLUX BIBLIOGRAPHY

  1. Scambos, Ted A., et al. “The link between climate warming and break-up of ice shelves in the Antarctic Peninsula.” Journal of Glaciology 46.154 (2000): 516-530.  A review of in situ and remote-sensing data covering the ice shelves of the Antarctic Peninsula provides a series of characteristics closely associated with rapid shelf retreat: deeply embayed ice fronts; calving of myriad small elongate bergs in punctuated events; increasing flow speed; and the presence of melt ponds on the ice-shelf surface in the vicinity of the break-ups. As climate has warmed in the Antarctic Peninsula region, melt-season duration and the extent of ponding have increased. Most break-up events have occurred during longer melt seasons, suggesting that meltwater itself, not just warming, is responsible. Regions that show melting without pond formation are relatively unchanged. Melt ponds thus appear to be a robust harbinger of ice-shelf retreat. We use these observations to guide a model of ice-shelf flow and the effects of meltwater. Crevasses present in a region of surface ponding will likely fill to the brim with water. We hypothesize (building on Weertman (1973), Hughes (1983) and Van der Veen (1998)) that crevasse propagation by meltwater is the main mechanism by which ice shelves weaken and retreat. A thermodynamic finite-element model is used to evaluate ice flow and the strain field, and simple extensions of this model are used to investigate crack propagation by meltwater. The model results support the hypothesis.
  2. Convey, P., et al. “The flora of the South Sandwich Islands, with particular reference to the influence of geothermal heating.” Journal of Biogeography 27.6 (2000): 1279-1295.  Data obtained in 1997 are combined with updated records from the only previous survey (in 1964) to provide a baseline description of the flora of the archipelago, which currently includes 1 phanerogam, 38 mosses, 11 liverworts, 5 basidiomycete fungi, 41 lichenised fungi and 16 diatoms with, additionally, several taxa identified only to genus. Major elements of the moss and liverwort floras are composed of South American taxa (32% and 73%, respectively), with a further 45% of mosses having bipolar or cosmopolitan distributions. These two groups show low levels of Antarctic endemicity (11% and 18%, respectively). In contrast, 52% of lichens and 80% of basidiomycete fungi are endemic to the Antarctic. A further 36% of lichens are bipolar/cosmopolitan, with only 5% of South American origin. The flora of the South Sandwich Islands is clearly derived from those of other Antarctic zones. The flora of unheated ground is closely related to that of the maritime Antarctic, although with a very limited number of species represented. That of heated ground contains both maritime and sub‐Antarctic elements, confirming the importance of geothermal heating for successful colonisation of the latter group. The occurrence of several maritime Antarctic species only on heated ground confirms the extreme severity of the archipelago’s climate in comparison with well‐studied sites much further south in this biogeographical zone.
  3. Smith, RI Lewis. “The bryophyte flora of geothermal habitats on Deception Island, Antarctica.” The Journal of the Hattori Botanical Laboratory 97 (2005): 233-248.  Deception Island is one of the most volcanically active sites south of 60°S. Between 1967 and 1970 three major eruptions devastated large expanses of the landscape and its predominantly cryptogamic vegetation. Since 1970 extensive recolonisation has occurred on the more stable surfaces. Unheated ground supports several bryophyte and lichen communities typical of much of the maritime Antarctic, but geothermal habitats possess remarkable associations of bryophytes, many of the species being unknown or very rare elsewhere in the Antarctic. Nine geothermal sites were located and their vegetation investigated in detail. Communities associated with more transient sites have disappeared when the geothermal activity ceased. Mosses and liverworts occur to within a few centimetres of fumarole vents where temperatures reach 90-95℃, while temperatures within adjacent moss turf can reach 35-50℃ or more and remain consistently between 25 and 45℃. Most of the bryoflora has a Patagonian-Fuegian provenance and it is presumed that, unlike most species, the thermophiles are not pre-adapted to the Antarctic environment, being able to colonise only where the warm and humid conditions prevail.
  4. Vieira, Gonçalo, et al. “Geomorphological observations of permafrost and ground-ice degradation on Deception and Livingston Islands, Maritime Antarctica.” (2008): 1939-1844. The Antarctic Peninsula is experiencing one of the fastest increases in mean annual air temperatures (ca. 2.5oC in the last 50 years) on Earth. If the observed warming trend continues as indicated by climate models, the region could suffer widespread permafrost degradation. This paper presents field observations of geomorphological features linked to permafrost and ground-ice degradation at two study areas: northwest Hurd Peninsula (Livingston Island) and Deception Island along the Antarctic Peninsula. These observations include thermokarst features, debris flows, active-layer detachment slides, and rockfalls. The processes observed may be linked not only to an increase in temperature, but also to increased rainfall, which can trigger debris flows and other processes. On Deception Island some thermokarst (holes in the ground produced by the selective melting of permafrost)  features may be related to anomalous geothermal heat flux from volcanic activity.
  5. Mulvaney, Robert, et al. “Recent Antarctic Peninsula warming relative to Holocene climate and ice-shelf history.” Nature 489.7414 (2012): 141-144.  Rapid warming over the past 50 years on the Antarctic Peninsula is associated with the collapse of a number of ice shelves and accelerating glacier mass loss1,2,3,4,5,6,7. In contrast, warming has been comparatively modest over West Antarctica and significant changes have not been observed over most of East Antarctica8,9, suggesting that the ice-core palaeoclimate records available from these areas may not be representative of the climate history of the Antarctic Peninsula. Here we show that the Antarctic Peninsula experienced an early-Holocene warm period followed by stable temperatures, from about 9,200 to 2,500 years ago, that were similar to modern-day levels. Our temperature estimates are based on an ice-core record of deuterium variations from James Ross Island, off the northeastern tip of the Antarctic Peninsula. We find that the late-Holocene development of ice shelves near James Ross Island was coincident with pronounced cooling from 2,500 to 600 years ago. This cooling was part of a millennial-scale climate excursion with opposing anomalies on the eastern and western sides of the Antarctic Peninsula. Although warming of the northeastern Antarctic Peninsula began around 600 years ago, the high rate of warming over the past century is unusual (but not unprecedented) in the context of natural climate variability over the past two millennia. The connection shown here between past temperature and ice-shelf stability suggests that warming for several centuries rendered ice shelves on the northeastern Antarctic Peninsula vulnerable to collapse. Continued warming to temperatures that now exceed the stable conditions of most of the Holocene epoch is likely to cause ice-shelf instability to encroach farther southward along the Antarctic Peninsula.
  6. Fraser, Ceridwen I., et al. “Geothermal activity helps life survive glacial cycles.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 111.15 (2014): 5634-5639.  The evolution and maintenance of diversity through cycles of past climate change have hinged largely on the availability of refugia (places where life can survive through a period of unfavorable conditions such as glaciation). Geothermal refugia may have been particularly important for survival through past glaciations. Our spatial modeling of Antarctic biodiversity indicates that some terrestrial groups likely survived throughout intense glacial cycles on ice-free land or in sub-ice caves associated with areas of geothermal activity, from which recolonization of the rest of the continent took place. These results provide unexpected insights into the responses of various species to past climate change and the importance of geothermal regions in promoting biodiversity. Furthermore, they indicate the likely locations of biodiversity “hotspots” in Antarctica, suggesting a critical focus for future conservation efforts.
  7. An, Meijian, et al. “Temperature, lithosphere‐asthenosphere boundary, and heat flux beneath the Antarctic Plate inferred from seismic velocities.” Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth 120.12 (2015): 8720-8742.  We estimate the upper mantle temperature of the Antarctic Plate based on the thermoelastic properties of mantle minerals and S velocities using a new 3‐D shear velocity model, AN1‐S. Crustal temperatures and surface heat fluxes are then calculated from the upper mantle temperature assuming steady state thermal conduction. The temperature at the top of the asthenosphere beneath the oceanic region and West Antarctica is higher than the dry mantle solidus, indicating the presence of melt. From the temperature values, we generate depth maps of the lithosphere‐asthenosphere boundary and the Curie temperature isotherm. The maps show that East Antarctica has a thick lithosphere similar to that of other stable cratons, with the thickest lithosphere (~250 km) between Domes A and C. The thin crust and lithosphere beneath West Antarctica are similar to those of modern subduction‐related rift systems in East Asia. A cold region beneath the Antarctic Peninsula is similar in spatial extent to that of a flat‐subducted slab beneath the southern Andes, indicating a possible remnant of the Phoenix Plate, which was subducted prior to 10 Ma. The oceanic lithosphere generally thickens with increasing age, and the age‐thickness correlation depends on the spreading rate of the ridge that formed the lithosphere. Significant flattening of the age‐thickness curves is not observed for the mature oceanic lithosphere of the Antarctic Plate.
  8. Dziadek, Ricarda, et al. “Geothermal heat flux in the Amundsen Sea sector of West Antarctica: New insights from temperature measurements, depth to the bottom of the magnetic source estimation, and thermal modeling.” Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems 18.7 (2017): 2657-2672[FULL TEXT]  Focused research on the Pine Island and Thwaites glaciers, which drain the West Antarctic Ice Shelf (WAIS) into the Amundsen Sea Embayment (ASE), revealed strong signs of instability in recent decades that result from variety of reasons, such as inflow of warmer ocean currents and reverse bedrock topography, and has been established as the Marine Ice Sheet Instability hypothesis. Geothermal heat flux (GHF) is a poorly constrained parameter in Antarctica and suspected to affect basal conditions of ice sheets, i.e., basal melting and subglacial hydrology. Thermomechanical models demonstrate the influential boundary condition of geothermal heat flux for (paleo) ice sheet stability. Due to a complex tectonic and magmatic history of West Antarctica, the region is suspected to exhibit strong heterogeneous geothermal heat flux variations. We present an approach to investigate ranges of realistic heat fluxes in the ASE by different methods, discuss direct observations, and 3‐D numerical models that incorporate boundary conditions derived from various geophysical studies, including our new Depth to the Bottom of the Magnetic Source (DBMS) estimates. Our in situ temperature measurements at 26 sites in the ASE more than triples the number of direct GHF observations in West Antarctica. We demonstrate by our numerical 3‐D models that GHF spatially varies from 68 up to 110 mW m−2.
  9. Martos, Yasmina M., et al. “Heat flux distribution of Antarctica unveiled.” Geophysical Research Letters 44.22 (2017): 11-417.  [FULL TEXT]  Antarctica is the largest reservoir of ice on Earth. Understanding its ice sheet dynamics is crucial to unraveling past global climate change and making robust climatic and sea level predictions. Of the basic parameters that shape and control ice flow, the most poorly known is geothermal heat flux. Direct observations of heat flux are difficult to obtain in Antarctica, and until now continent‐wide heat flux maps have only been derived from low‐resolution satellite magnetic and seismological data. We present a high‐resolution heat flux map and associated uncertainty derived from spectral analysis of the most advanced continental compilation of airborne magnetic data. Small‐scale spatial variability and features consistent with known geology are better reproduced than in previous models, between 36% and 50%. Our high‐resolution heat flux map and its uncertainty distribution provide an important new boundary condition to be used in studies on future subglacial hydrology, ice sheet dynamics, and sea level change.
  10. Burton‐Johnson, Alex, et al. “A new heat flux model for the Antarctic Peninsula incorporating spatially variable upper crustal radiogenic heat production.” Geophysical Research Letters 44.11 (2017): 5436-5446.  A new method for modeling heat flux shows that the upper crust contributes up to 70% of the Antarctic Peninsula’s subglacial heat flux and that heat flux values are more variable at smaller spatial resolutions than geophysical methods can resolve. Results indicate a higher heat flux on the east and south of the Peninsula (mean 81 mW m−2) where silicic rocks predominate, than on the west and north (mean 67 mW m−2) where volcanic arc and quartzose sediments are dominant. While the data supports the contribution of heat‐producing element‐enriched granitic rocks to high heat flux values, sedimentary rocks can be of comparative importance dependent on their provenance and petrography. Models of subglacial heat flux must utilize a heterogeneous upper crust with variable radioactive heat production if they are to accurately predict basal conditions of the ice sheet. Our new methodology and data set facilitate improved numerical model simulations of ice sheet dynamics.  
  11. Schroeder, Dustin M., et al. “Evidence for elevated and spatially variable geothermal flux beneath the West Antarctic Ice Sheet.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 111.25 (2014): 9070-9072SIGNIFICANCE: Thwaites Glacier is one of the West Antarctica’s most prominent, rapidly evolving, and potentially unstable contributors to global sea level rise. Uncertainty in the amount and spatial pattern of geothermal flux and melting beneath this glacier is a major limitation in predicting its future behavior and sea level contribution. In this paper, a combination of radar sounding and subglacial water routing is used to show that large areas at the base of Thwaites Glacier are actively melting in response to geothermal flux consistent with rift-associated magma migration and volcanism. This supports the hypothesis that heterogeneous geothermal flux and local magmatic processes could be critical factors in determining the future behavior of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. ABSTRACT: Heterogeneous hydrologic, lithologic, and geologic basal boundary conditions can exert strong control on the evolution, stability, and sea level contribution of marine ice sheets. Geothermal flux is one of the most dynamically critical ice sheet boundary conditions but is extremely difficult to constrain at the scale required to understand and predict the behavior of rapidly changing glaciers. This lack of observational constraint on geothermal flux is particularly problematic for the glacier catchments of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet within the low topography of the West Antarctic Rift System where geothermal fluxes are expected to be high, heterogeneous, and possibly transient. We use airborne radar sounding data with a subglacial water routing model to estimate the distribution of basal melting and geothermal flux beneath Thwaites Glacier, West Antarctica. We show that the Thwaites Glacier catchment has a minimum average geothermal flux of ∼114 ± 10 mW/m2 with areas of high flux exceeding 200 mW/m2 consistent with hypothesized rift-associated magmatic migration and volcanism. These areas of highest geothermal flux include the westernmost tributary of Thwaites Glacier adjacent to the subaerial Mount Takahe volcano and the upper reaches of the central tributary near the West Antarctic Ice Sheet Divide ice core drilling site.  [LINK TO FULL TEXT] 

LEFT: Bed topography of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet and Amundsen Sea Embayment. MIDDLE: Subglacial hydrologic potential (13) for a distributed water system in the upstream region of the Thwaites Glacier catchment (black boundary). RIGHT:  Collection of subglacial water routing models that best fit the observed radar bed echo strength distribution

 

Fig. 3.

Minimum geothermal flux and basal melt values required to reproduce the observed relative bed echo strengths (Fig. 2A) with subglacial water routing models (1327) (Fig. 1C) using the total melt water from an ice sheet model for the upstream portion of the Thwaites Glacier catchment (9). The minimum average inferred flux is ∼114 ± 10 mW/m2. High-flux areas exceed 200 mW/m2. A indicates the Mount Takahe volcano. B indicates the WAIS Divide ice core drilling site. High-melt areas are indicated by C in the westernmost tributary, D adjacent to the Crary mountains, and E in the upper portion of the central tributaries (8). Triangles show areas where radar-inferred melt anomalies exceed those generated by ice dynamics (friction and advection) (9) and inferred geothermal flux exceeds 150 mW/m2 (dark magenta) and 200 mW/m2 (light magenta). Bed topography (12) contour interval for Antarctica is 180 m. The upstream region of the Thwaites Glacier catchment contains several areas of strong relative bed echoes indicating larger quantities of subglacial water. The distribution of melt and geothermal flux includes several regions with high melt that are closely related to rift structure and associated volcanism.  These include the entire westernmost tributary (Fig. 3, location C) that flanks Mount Takahe (Fig. 3, location A), a subaerial volcano active in the Quaternary (2829), and several high-flux areas across the catchment adjacent to topographic features that are hypothesized to be volcanic in origin as seen in the image above and as described in Bahrendt 1998 and Bahrendt 2013, and Joughin 2009. We also observe high geothermal flux in the upper reaches of the central tributaries that are relatively close to the site of the WAIS Divide ice core where unexpectedly high melt and geothermal flux have been estimated. We estimate a minimum average geothermal flux value of about 114 mW/m2 with a notional uncertainty of about 10 mW/m2 for the Thwaites Glacier catchment with areas exceeding 200 mW/m2. These values are likely underestimates due to the low uniform geothermal flux value used in the ice sheet model and the compensating effect of enhanced vertical advection of cold shallow ice in high-melt areas. Note that this latter effect also predicts a subtle gradient of underestimated flux from the interior to the trunk as fast flow and associated frictional melting increases.

12. Behrendt, John C., et al. “Aeromagnetic evidence for a volcanic caldera  complex beneath the divide of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet.” Geophysical Research Letters 25.23 (1998): 4385-4388. A 1995–96 aeromagnetic survey over part of the Sinuous Ridge (SR) beneath the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) divide shows a 70‐km diameter circular pattern of 400–1200‐nT anomalies suggesting one of the largest volcanic caldera complexes on earth. Radar‐ice‐sounding (RIS) shows the northern part of this pattern overlies the SR, and extends south over the Bentley Subglacial Trench (BST). Modeled sources of all but one the caldera anomalies are at the base of <1–2‐km thick ice and their volcanic edifices have been glacially removed. The exception is a 700‐m high, 15‐km wide volcano” producing an 800‐nT anomaly over the BST. Intrusion of this volcano beneath 3 km of ice probably resulted in pillow basalt rather than easily removed hyaloclastite erupted beneath thinner ice. The background area (−300 to −500‐nT) surrounding the caldera is possibly caused by a shallow Curie isotherm. We suggest uplift of the SR forced the advance of the WAIS

13. Behrendt, John C. “The aeromagnetic method as a tool to identify Cenozoic magmatism in the West Antarctic Rift System beneath the West Antarctic Ice Sheet—A review; Thiel subglacial volcano as possible source of the ash layer in the WAISCORE.” Tectonophysics 585 (2013): 124-136The West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) sits on the volcanically active West Antarctic Rift System (WARS). The aeromagnetic method has been the most useful geophysical tool for identification of subglacial volcanic rocks, since 1959–64 surveys, particularly combined with 1978 radar ice-sounding. The unique 1991–97 Central West Antarctica (CWA) aerogeophysical survey covering 354,000 km2 over the WAIS, (5-km line-spaced, orthogonal lines of aeromagnetic, radar ice-sounding, and aerogravity measurements), still provides invaluable information on subglacial volcanic rocks, particularly combined with the older aeromagnetic profiles. These data indicate numerous 100–>1000 nT, 5–50-km width, shallow-source, magnetic anomalies over an area greater than 1.2 × 106 km2, mostly from subglacial volcanic sources. I interpreted the CWA anomalies as defining about 1000 “volcanic centers” requiring high remanent normal magnetizations in the present field direction. About 400 anomaly sources correlate with bed topography. At least 80% of these sources have less than 200 m relief at the WAIS bed. They appear modified by moving ice, requiring a younger age than the WAIS (about 25 Ma). Exposed volcanoes in the WARS are < 34 Ma, but at least four are active. If a few buried volcanic centers are active, subglacial volcanism may well affect the WAIS regime. Aero-geo-physical data (Blankenship et al., 1993, Mt. Casertz; Corr and Vaughan, 2008, near Hudson Mts.) indicated active subglacial volcanism. Magnetic data indicate a caldera and a surrounding “low” in the WAISCORE vicinity possibly the result of a shallow Curie isotherm. High heat flow reported from temperature logging in the WAISCORE (Conway et al., 2011; Clow, personal communication.) and a volcanic ash layer (Dunbar, 2012) are consistent with this interpretation. A subaerially erupted subglacial volcano, (Mt Thiel), about 100 km distant, may be the ash source. Aeromagnetic method most useful to study subglacial volcanic rocks beneath WAIS.  The Central West Antarctica aerogeophysical survey is a unique Antarctic data set.  Data indicate ~ 1000 magnetic anomalies mostly from subglacial volcanic eruptions. 

14. Joughin, Ian, et al. “Basal conditions for Pine Island and Thwaites Glaciers, West Antarctica, determined using satellite and airborne data.” Journal of Glaciology 55.190 (2009): 245-257.  We use models constrained by remotely sensed data from Pine Island and Thwaites Glaciers, West Antarctica, to infer basal properties that are difficult to observe directly. The results indicate strong basal melting in areas upstream of the grounding lines of both glaciers, where the ice flow is fast and the basal shear stress is large. Farther inland, we find that both glaciers have ‘mixed’ bed conditions, with extensive areas of both bedrock and weak till. In particular, there are weak areas along much of Pine Island Glacier’s main trunk that could prove unstable if it retreats past the band of strong bed just above its current grounding line. In agreement with earlier studies, our forward ice-stream model shows a strong sensitivity to small perturbations in the grounding line position. These results also reveal a large sensitivity to the assumed bed (sliding or deforming) model, with non-linear sliding laws producing substantially greater dynamic response than earlier simulations that assume a linear-viscous till rheology. Finally, comparison indicates that our results using a plastic bed are compatible with the limited observational constraints and theoretical work that suggests an upper bound exists on maximum basal shear stress.

 

Polar bears could disappear by 2100 due to melting ice, climate change,  study says
End of the planet' or Aladdin's cave? Climate change turns Arctic into  strategic, economic hotspot - pennlive.com
Climate Change Impact on Arctic Ecosystems – Climate Institute

THIS POST IS A CRITICAL REVIEW OF A GUARDIAN ARTICLE IN OCTOBER 2020 THAT THE ARCTIC IS IN A DEATH SPIRAL; LINK TO SOURCE: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/ng-interactive/2020/oct/13/arctic-ice-melting-climate-change-global-warming

Greenland Ice Sheet

WHAT THE GUARDIAN ARTICLE SAYS

with critical commentary inserted

  1. The Arctic is in a death spiral. How much longer will it exist? The region is unravelling faster than anyone could once have predicted. But there may still be time to act.
  2. At the end of July, 40% of the 4,000-year-old Milne Ice Shelf, located on the north-western edge of Ellesmere Island, calved into the sea. Canada’s last fully intact ice shelf was no more. On the other side of the island, the most northerly in Canada, the St Patrick’s Bay ice caps completely disappeared.
  3. Two weeks later, scientists concluded that the Greenland Ice Sheet may have already passed the point of no return. Annual snowfall is no longer enough to replenish the snow and ice loss during summer melting of the territory’s 234 glaciers.
  4. CLAIM: Last year, the ice sheet lost a record amount of ice, equivalent to 1 million metric tons every minute. RESPONSE: If the ice sheet is losing 1 million tonnes a minute every minute during the summer melt season June to September, it will lose 176 gigatons per year and at that rate, the whole of the Greenland Ice Sheet will be gone in the next 150,000 years while contributing about 0.5mm/year or 5cm per century to sea level rise. Is this a death spiral?
  5. CLAIM: The Arctic is unravelling. And it’s happening faster than anyone could have imagined just a few decades ago. RESPONSE: A few decades ago climate scientists were saying that global warming is devastating the Arctic and that the Arctic is screaming, as described in a related post: LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2019/02/22/old-climate-fears-revisited/ There we find that (1) 1999, Sea ice in the Arctic Basin is shrinking by 14000 square miles per year because of global warming caused by human activity according to a new international study that used 46 years of data and climate models to tackle the specific question of whether the loss of Arctic ice is a natural variation or caused by global warming. The computer model says that the probability that these changes were caused by natural variation is 1% but when global warming was added to the model the ice melt was a perfect fit. Therefore the ice melt is caused by human activities that emit greenhouse gases. (2) 2004 Global warming has unleashed massive ecological changes that are already under way. These changes are ushering in a grim future including massive species extinctions, an elevation of sea levels by 3 feet, wholesale changes to the Arctic. (3) 2004: RAPID ARCTIC WARMING BRINGS SEA LEVEL RISE. Increasing greenhouse gases from human activities is causing the Arctic to warm twice as fast as the rest of the planet; in Alaska, western Canada, and eastern Russia winter temperatures have risen by 2C to 4C in the last 50 years; the Arctic will warm by 4C to 7C by 2100. A portion of Greenland’s ice sheet will melt; global sea levels will rise; global warming will intensify. Greenland contains enough melting ice to raise sea levels by 7 meters; Bangkok, Manila, Dhaka, Florida, Louisiana, and New Jersey are at risk of inundation; thawing permafrost and rising seas threaten Arctic coastal regions; climate change will accelerate and bring about profound ecological and social changes; the Arctic is experiencing the most rapid and severe climate change on earth and it’s going to get a lot worse; Arctic summer sea ice will decline by 50% to 100%; polar bears will be driven towards extinction; this report is an urgent SOS for the Arctic; forest fires and insect infestations will increase in frequency and intensity; changing vegetation and rising sea levels will shrink the tundra to its lowest level in 21000 years; vanishing breeding areas for birds and grazing areas for animals will cause extinctions of many species. (4) 2004 GLOBAL WARMING WILL LEAVE ARCTIC ICE FREE. The Arctic ice cap is shrinking at an unprecedented rate and will be gone by 2070. It has shrunk by 15%to 20% in the last 30 years. This process will accelerate with the Arctic warming twice as fast as the rest of the world due to a buildup of heat trapping greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. (5) 2007: THE ARCTIC IS SCREAMING. Climate science declares that the low sea ice extent in the Arctic is the leading indicator of climate change. We are told that the Arctic “is screaming”, that Arctic sea ice extent is the “canary in the coal mine”, and that Polar Bears and other creatures in the Arctic are dying off and facing imminent extinction. Scientists say that the melting sea ice has set up a positive feedback system that would cause the summer melts in subsequent years to be greater and greater until the Arctic becomes ice free in the summer of 2012. (6) 2007. Climate scientists say that the Arctic is on its way to becoming ice free in summer and that therefore the polar bear should be declared an endangered species under the Endangered Species Act and we must act quickly and decisively to cut emissions and turn the climate temperature knob down to where the Polar Bear can survive. (7) 2008: ARCTIC SEA ICE IN A DOWNWARD SPIRAL because of positive feedback. Fossil fuels are devastating the Arctic where the volume of sea ice fell to its lowest recorded level to date this year and that reduced ice coverage is causing a non-linear acceleration in the loss of polar ice because there is less ice to reflect sunlight. (8) 2008: THE ARCTIC WILL BE ICE FREE IN SUMMER IN 2008. The unusually low summer sea ice extent in the Arctic in 2007 caused the IPCC to take note and has revise its projection of an ice free Arctic. (9) 2009: Ban Ki-Moon says that he went to the Arctic Ocean and was horrified to see the remains of a glacier that just a few years ago was a majestic mass of ice and that had just collapsed – not slowly melted – just collapsed. He thereby became convinced that the only resolution for the “climate crisis” is a binding emission reduction agreement at the Copenhagen meeting in December 2009. (10) 2009: THE ARCTIC WILL BE ICE FREE IN SUMMER BY THE YEAR 2012. Climate scientists have studied the extreme summer melt of Arctic sea ice in 2007 and found that the summer melt of 2007 was a climate change event and that it implies that the Arctic will be ice free in the summer from 2012 onwards. This is a devastating effect on the planet and our use of fossil fuels is to blame.
  6. CLAIM: Northern Siberia and the Canadian Arctic are now warming three times faster than the rest of the world. In the past decade, Arctic temperatures have increased by nearly 1C. If greenhouse gas emissions stay on the same trajectory, we can expect the north to have warmed by 4C year-round by the middle of the century. RESPONSE: It is true that the Arctic is warming at twice the rate of the rest of the world because of certain atmospheric circulation patterns that transfers heat from the Tropics to the Arctic but the rate of warming is not uniform “year-round”. The warming rate is highest in spring (3.9C per century) and lowest in summer (1.4C per century). The winter months are in the middle at about (2.4C per century). These rates imply a mean annualized rate of (2.57C per century) – about twice the rate of the global mean warming rate of (1.3C per century). Details in a related post: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/06/22/global-warming-1979-2019/ . The middle of the century is 2050 – about 30 years away. At the warming rate of 2.6C per century the Arctic will have warmed by 0.8C at most by mid-century. The 4C forecast requires some clarification in this context.
  7. CLAIM: In the Arctic, the warm summer months melt away ice and the winter snowfall freezes it back. But as the climate warms, the Arctic loses more ice than it gains back. RESPONSE: Yes, sir! Agreed! This is the mechanism of gradual year by year ice loss in a warming climate.
  8. CLAIM: Arctic ice in August 1980: The Greenland Ice Sheet is no longer growing. Instead of gaining new ice every year, it begins to lose roughly 51 billion metric tons annually, discharged into the ocean as meltwater and icebergs. RESPONSE: Yes of course, in a warming climate Greenland will lose some ice on an annual basis and at 51 gigatons per year, that melt will contribute 0.142mm/year to sea level rise and if this loss persists for a few thousand years, the whole of the Greenland Ice Sheet will be gone in about 500,000 years unless the next glaciation cycle of the Quaternary Ice Age intervenes.
  9. CLAIM: August 2010: A chunk of ice four times the size of Manhattan breaks off the Petermann Glacier, causing the ice sheet to retreat 18 kilometers. With little snow falling during winter, Greenland’s ice cap is subjected to record melting which lasts 50 days longer than average. RESPONSE: Taking the height of the World Trade Center as the height, the volume of “the size of Manhattan” is 32.0463 cubic km and a chunk of ice that size weighs 32.0463 gigatons and one that is four times the size of Manhattan weighs 128 gigatons. If this exceptional Manhattan event happens every August, the melting of Greenland will contribute 0.357mm/year to sea level rise and the Greenland Ice sheet will be gone in about 200,000 years. The use of geographical references to denote ice volume is not a good way to communicate the amount of ice that is at issue.
  10. CLAIM: Even if we stop all greenhouse gas emissions tomorrow, Arctic sea ice will continue melting for decades. RESPONSE: The time span implied by decades is not a very long period in in the context of a century of ice melt dynamics and without an AGW climate change implication because of the internal climate variability issue: LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/07/16/the-internal-variability-issue/
  11. CLAIM: There is no facet of Arctic life that remains untouched by the immensity of change here, except perhaps the eternal dance between light and darkness. The Arctic as we know it – a vast icy landscape where reindeer roam, polar bears feast, and waters teem with cod and seals – will soon be frozen only in memory. RESPONSE: There is in fact no facet of human life anywhere on earth that remains untouched by the immensity of the climate in shaping our lives. For example the Holocene – and specifically the Holocene Climate Optimum period – created human civilization and our social structure out of animal-like humans who lived isolated in caves: LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2018/08/20/the-holocene-optimum-period-a-bibliography/ and it was the climate change of the Medieval Warm Period that took the Norsemen settle in Greenland: LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2019/04/02/mwp/ and the Little Ice Age that killed those settlers and ended the Viking settlement of Greenland LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2018/07/19/liaclimatologybibliography/ Climate has an enormous impact on our lives and this impact is what drives the climate superstitions that have been with us all though human history and still is, as evidenced in this Guardian assessment of climate change: LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2018/08/03/confirmationbias/
  12. CLAIM: A new Nature Climate Change study predicts that summer sea ice floating on the surface of the Arctic Ocean could disappear entirely by 2035. Until relatively recently, scientists didn’t think we would reach this point until 2050 at the earliest. Reinforcing this finding, last month Arctic sea ice reached its second-lowest extent in the , the 41-year satellite record. RESPONSE: As seen in ITEM#5 above, the “ICE-FREE-ARCTIC” being forecast here has a long and sordid history in climate science. This kind of obsession with fear mongering does not speak well of what is often advertised as “THE SCIENCE” that in and of itself should validate everything climate scientists say. LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2019/11/18/the-ice-free-arctic-obsession-of-agw/ .
  13. CLAIM; The latest models are basically showing that no matter what emissions scenario we follow, we’re going to lose summer sea ice cover before the middle of the century. says Julienne Stroeve, a senior research scientist at the US National Snow and Ice Data Center. “Even if we keep warming to less than 2C, it’s still enough to lose that summer sea ice in some years. RESPONSE: The strange and failed obsession of climate science with the ice free Arctic prediction continues unabated. It is odd to the point of bizarre. LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2019/11/18/the-ice-free-arctic-obsession-of-agw/
  14. CLAIM: At outposts in the Canadian Arctic, permafrost is thawing 70 years sooner than predicted. Roads are buckling. Houses are sinking. In Siberia, giant craters pockmark the tundra as temperatures soar, hitting 100F (38C) in the town of Verkhoyansk in July. RESPONSE: An odd falsehood that seems to have become institutionalized in climate science is that failed forecasts are celebrated as being even more right than previously thought if the data are scarier than the forecast. That the permafrost forecast was off by 70 years does not mean that it was even more right than previously thought. It means that the forecast was wrong. The biased interpretation of the error is evidence of a significant level of confirmation bias in climate science: LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/06/29/diffenbaugh-2017-extreme-weather-of-climate-change/ .
  15. CLAIM: The soaring heat leads to raging wildfires, now common in hotter and drier parts of the Arctic. In recent summers, infernos have torn across the tundra of Sweden, Alaska, and Russia, destroying native vegetation. RESPONSE: These are time and geography constrained climate events that have no interpretation in terms of anthropogenic global warming. LINK#1: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/07/19/agw-heat-wave-in-siberia/ LINK#2: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/07/13/siberian-heat-larming-climate-scientists/ LINK#3: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/07/16/the-internal-variability-issue/
  16. CLAIM: This hurts the millions of reindeer and caribou who eat mosses, lichens, and stubbly grasses. Disastrous rain-on-snow events have also increased in frequency, locking the ungulates’ preferred forage foods in ice; between 2013 and 2014, an estimated 61,000 animals died on Russia’s Yamal peninsula due to mass starvation during a rainy winter. Overall, the global population of reindeer and caribou has declined by 56% in the last 20 years. RESPONSE: Climate science has determined that that global warming is killing off the caribou because warming causes freezing rain in the calving season and that makes it hard for calving caribou to feed. The data presented show a population decline for the caribou. However, as shown in a related post, the decline in caribou population is not sustained leading to a very different interpretation of the same data. LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2019/03/09/caribou/ .
  17. CLAIM: Such losses have devastated the indigenous people whose culture and livelihoods are interwoven with the plight of the reindeer and caribou. Inuit use all parts of the caribou: sinew for thread, hide for clothing, antlers for tools, and flesh for food. In Europe and Russia, the Sami people herd thousands of reindeer across the tundra. Warmer winters have forced many of them to change how they conduct their livelihoods, for example by providing supplemental feed for their reindeer. Yet some find opportunities in the crisis. Melting ice has made the region’s abundant mineral deposits and oil and gas reserves more accessible by ship. China is heavily investing in the increasingly ice-free Northern Sea Route over the top of Russia, which promises to cut shipping times between the Far East and Europe by 10 to 15 days. The Northwest Passage through the Canadian Arctic Archipelago could soon yield another shortcut. And in Greenland, vanishing ice is unearthing a wealth of uranium, zinc, gold, iron and rare earth elements. In 2019, Donald Trump claimed he was considering buying Greenland from Denmark. Never before has the Arctic enjoyed such political relevance. Tourism has boomed, at least until the Covid shutdown, with throngs of wealthy visitors drawn to this exotic frontier in hopes of capturing the perfect selfie under the aurora borealis. Between 2006 and 2016, the impact from winter tourism increased by over 600%. The city of Tromsø, Norway, dubbed the “Paris of the north”, welcomed just 36,000 tourists in the winter of 2008-09. By 2016, that number had soared to 194,000. Underlying such interest, however, is an unspoken sentiment: that this might be the last chance people have to experience the Arctic as it once was. RESPONSE: The Arctic is the home of the indigenous Inuit, a proud, tough, and highly talented race of survivors that have lived, survived, and prospered in the Arctic since the icy cold of the last glaciation, through the Younger Dryas cooling, through 8200, 6300, 4700, 2700, 1550 and 550YBP cold periods and the the extreme warming, ice melt, and sea level rise of the Holocene Climate Optimum, the Minoan warm period that destroyed the Late Bronze Age civilization, the Medieval warm period that brought the Norsemen to Greenland, and the Little Ice Age that killed off the Norsemen in Greenland. Through it all the Inuit have survived, thrived, grown, and prospered. And they are still here today surviving wonderfully as only they know how. It is an extreme form of racism for the European races to play the role of caretakers of these incredible Arctic people. They don’t need the Europeans to feel sorry for them or to take care of them and to help them to survive global warming. They certainly don’t need Europeans to meddle in Arctic affairs and to keep them from the economic bonanza off the Northwest Passage.
  18. CLAIM: Stopping climate change in the Arctic requires an enormous reduction in the emission of fossil fuels, and the world has made scant progress despite obvious urgency. Moreover, many greenhouse gases persist in our atmosphere for years. Even if we were to cease all emissions tomorrow, it would take decades for those gases to dissolve and for temperatures to stabilize (though some recent research suggests the span could be shorter). In the interim, more ice, permafrost, and animals would be lost. It’s got to be both a reduction in emissions and carbon capture at this point, explains Stroeve. “We need to take out what we’ve already put in there. Other strategies may help mitigate the damage to the ecosystem and its inhabitants. The Yupik village of Newtok in northern Alaska, where thawing permafrost has eroded the ground underfoot, will be relocated by 2023. Conservation groups are pushing for the establishment of several marine conservation areas throughout the High Arctic to protect struggling wildlife. In 2018, 10 parties signed an agreement that would prohibit commercial fishing in the high seas of the central Arctic Ocean for at least 16 years. And governments must weigh further regulations on new shipping and extractive activities in the region. The Arctic of the past is already gone. Following our current climate trajectory, it will be impossible to return to the conditions we saw just three decades ago. Yet many experts believe there’s still time to act, to preserve what once was, if the world comes together to prevent further harm and conserve what remains of this unique and fragile ecosystem. RESPONSE: That fossil fuel emissions change atmospheric composition and that climate action can be taken to reduce the rate of rise in atmospheric CO2 concentration and thereby to attenuate the rate of warming and sea level rise are at the foundation of climate science. Yet, no empirical evidence has been provided by climate science for these relationships and none is found in the data: LINK#1: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/09/23/emission-reduction-atmospheric-co2/ LINK#2: https://tambonthongchai.com/2018/12/14/climateaction/ LINK#3: https://tambonthongchai.com/2019/02/20/csiroslr/

THE PROUD AND TOUGH NATIVE PEOPLES OF THE ARCTIC

Arctic Indigenous Peoples - Arctic Centre, University of Lapland
Arctic Native Peoples on the Edge - The Solutions Journal
Arctic People | National Snow and Ice Data Center
Inuit - Wikipedia

CLIMATE SCIENTIST EXPLAINS THE SCIENTIFIC MEANING OF “DEATH SPIRAL” IN THE SCIENCE OF CLIMATE SCIENCE.

A HISTORICAL CONTEXT OF THE CLIMATE MOVEMENT | Thongchai Thailand
A HISTORICAL CONTEXT OF THE CLIMATE MOVEMENT | Thongchai Thailand
The leader in renewable energy I Siemens Gamesa
Tired Earth | Health and Environmental Effects of Ozone Layer Depletion
OZONE DEPLETION PART-3 | Thongchai Thailand
Jamal Munshi: The United Nations: An Unconstrained Bureaucracy |  Tallbloke's Talkshop

Comment: The UN is unfit for the 21st century – The Update
António Guterres: "I hope this health crisis will serve as a warning" -  World Today News

HOW TO SELL JUNK SCIENCE

Asset allocation specialists are the new snake oil salesmen | Financial  Times

Climate Action Junk Science

  1. Will climate action attenuate the rise of atmospheric CO2 concentration?
    https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/09/23/emission-reduction-atmospheric-co2/
  2. Will climate action attenuate the rate of warming?https://tambonthongchai.com/2018/12/14/climateaction/
  3. Will climate action attenuate the rate of sea level rise?https://tambonthongchai.com/2019/02/20/csiroslr/
  4. How did they know they could sell us junk science and get away with it? They knew they could sell us junk science because it was so easy to sell us the ozone depletion and ozone holes junk.
    https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/10/10/mario-molina-1943-2020/
  5. PLANETARY ENVIRONMENTALISM: Are humans now in charge of the planet and the managers of nature? https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/09/22/things-eco-nuts-worry-about/
  6. THE ANTHROPOCENE OF CLIMATE SCIENCE: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/10/04/james-burke-the-science-guy/
  7. ON THE MAGICAL POWERS OF CONFIRMATION BIAS IN SCIENCE: https://tambonthongchai.com/2018/08/03/confirmationbias/

HUMANS AS LORDS OF THE PLANET AND MANAGERS OF NATURE

What if Adam and Eve didn't sin? - Quora

CONCLUSION: The climate change movement is really the climate action movement and the climate action movement is really the old anti fossil fuel movement of the 1960s that never really died and has resurfaced having invented a new rationale in terms of climate change.
https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/03/23/anti-fossil-fuel-activism-disguised-as-climate-science/

How to spot a snake oil salesman. — The Fitness Skeptic
snake oil salesman history - Google Search | Anta, Ideias
ANTONIO GUTTERAS

Climate change and the ocean
Ocean Heat Content And The Importance Of The Deep Ocean
Climate change in deep oceans could be seven times faster by middle of  century, report says | Oceans | The Guardian
A wild name, and an amazing, vast, new marine sanctuary · A Humane World

THIS POST IS A CRITICAL REVIEW OF A PHYS.ORG ARTICLE ON AN OCEAN WARMING EFFECT OF ANTHROPOGENIC GLOBAL WARMING.

LINK TO THE ARTICLE: https://phys.org/news/2020-10-deep-sea-slowly.html

PART-1: WHAT THE PHYS.ORG ARTICLE SAYS

The deep sea is slowly warming: by American Geophysical Union

New research reveals temperatures in the deep sea fluctuate more than scientists previously thought and a warming trend is now detectable at the bottom of the ocean. In a new study in AGU’s journal Geophysical Research Letters, researchers analyzed a decade of hourly temperature recordings from moorings anchored at four depths in the Atlantic Ocean’s Argentine Basin off the coast of Uruguay. The depths represent a range around the average ocean depth of 3,682 meters, with the shallowest at 1,360 meters and the deepest at 4,757 meters. They found all sites exhibited a warming trend of 0.02 to 0.04 degrees Celsius per decade between 2009 and 2019, a significant warming trend in the deep sea where temperature fluctuations are typically measured in thousandths of a degree.

According to the study authors, this increase is consistent with warming trends in the shallow ocean associated with anthropogenic climate change, but more research is needed to understand what is driving rising temperatures in the deep ocean.

In years past, everybody used to assume the deep ocean was quiescent. There was no motion. There were no changes but each time we go look we find that the ocean is more complex than we thought. The challenge of measuring the deep.

Researchers today are monitoring the top 2,000 meters of the ocean more closely than ever before, in large part due to an international program called the Global Ocean Observing System. Devices called Argo floats that sink and rise in the upper ocean, bobbing along in ocean currents, provide a rich trove of continuous data on temperature and salinity.

The deep sea, however, is difficult to access and expensive to study. Scientists typically take its temperature using ships that lower an instrument to the seafloor just once every ten years. This means scientists’ understanding of the day-to-day changes in the bottom half of the ocean lag far behind their knowledge of the surface.

NOAA is carrying out a rare long-term study at the bottom of the ocean, and the four devices they had moored at the bottom of the Argentine Basin were collecting information on ocean currents and a temperature sensor was built into the instrument’s pressure sensor used to study currents and it had collected temperature data for the entirety of their study period.

“So we went back and we calibrated all of our hourly data from these instruments and put together what is essentially a continuous 10-year-long hourly record of temperature one meter off the seafloor,” Meinen said.

Dynamic depths

The researchers found at the two shallower depths of 1,360 and 3,535 meters (4,460 feet and 11,600 feet), temperatures fluctuated roughly monthly by up to a degree Celsius. At depths below 4,500 meters (14,760 feet), temperature fluctuations were more minute, but changes followed an annual pattern, indicating seasons still have a measurable impact far below the ocean surface. The average temperature at all four locations went up over the course of the decade, but the increase of about 0.02 degrees Celsius per decade was only statistically significant at depths of over 4,500 meters.

According to the authors, these results demonstrate that scientists need to take the temperature of the deep ocean at least once a year to account for these fluctuations and pick up on meaningful long-term trends. In the meantime, others around the world who have used the same moorings to study deep sea ocean currents could analyze their own data and compare the temperature trends of other ocean basins.

“There are a number of studies around the globe where this kind of data has been collected, but it’s never been looked at,” Meinen said. “I’m hoping that this is going to lead to a reanalysis of a number of these historical datasets to try and see what we can say about deep ocean temperature variability.”

A better understanding of temperature in the deep sea could have implications that reach beyond the ocean. Because the world’s oceans absorb so much of the world’s heat, learning about the ocean’s temperature trends can help researchers better understand temperature fluctuations in the atmosphere as well.

“We’re trying to build a better Global Ocean Observing System so that in the future, we’re able to do better weather predictions,” Meinen said. “At the moment we can’t give really accurate seasonal forecasts, but hopefully as we get better predictive capabilities, we’ll be able to say to farmers in the Midwest that it’s going to be a wet spring and you may want to plant your crops accordingly.”

OTHER REPORTS OF THIS RESEARCH

Deep diving robots find warming accelerating in South Pacific Ocean waters
More information: Christopher S. Meinen et al, Observed Ocean Bottom Temperature Variability at Four Sites in the Northwestern Argentine Basin: Evidence of Decadal Deep/Abyssal Warming Amidst Hourly to Interannual Variability During 2009–2019, Geophysical Research Letters (2020). DOI: 10.1029/2020GL089093. Journal information: Geophysical Research Letters
Provided by American Geophysical Union. Facebook. Twitter.

PART-2: CRITICAL COMMENTARY

It is generally recognized that the the Antarctic Ocean is subject to significant geothermal heat that plays a role in the ice melt events and also explains the relative warmth of the Deep Circumpolar Current in that region. The South Atlantic and specifically the Argentine Basin is located immediately north of this geologically active area and it is known to be geologically active such that the observed abyssal warming of 0.02 to 0.04C over a decade can be explained as a geological event. A relevant bibliography is provided below that generally supports this evaluation.

The additional consideration is that a brief decadal warming event in the geographically limited region of the Argentine Basin of the Southwest Atlantic must be understood as an internal earth system climate variability that does not have an interpretation in terms of anthropogenic global warming and climate change that relates to long term trends in global mean temperature and not to temperature events particularly so when they are geographically constrained.

Under these conditions, it is not possible to understand the localized decadal warming event in a geologically active region in terms of anthropogenic global warming. LINK TO RELATED POST ON INTERNAL CLIMATE VARIABILITY: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/07/16/the-internal-variability-issue/

RELEVANT BIBLIOGRAPHY: GEOLOGICAL FEATURES OF THE ARGENTINE BASIN.

  1. Hofmann, M., and M. A. Morales Maqueda. “Geothermal heat flux and its influence on the oceanic abyssal circulation and radiocarbon distribution.” Geophysical Research Letters 36.3 (2009). Geothermal heating of abyssal waters is rarely regarded as a significant driver of the large‐scale oceanic circulation. Numerical experiments with the Ocean General Circulation Model POTSMOM‐1.0 suggest, however, that the impact of geothermal heat flux on deep ocean circulation is not negligible. Geothermal heating contributes to an overall warming of bottom waters by about 0.4°C, decreasing the stability of the water column and enhancing the formation rates of North Atlantic Deep Water and Antarctic Bottom Water by 1.5 Sv (10%) and 3 Sv (33%), respectively. Increased influx of Antarctic Bottom Water leads to a radiocarbon enrichment of Pacific Ocean waters, increasing Δ14C values in the deep North Pacific from −269‰ when geothermal heating is ignored in the model, to −242‰ when geothermal heating is included. A stronger and deeper Atlantic meridional overturning cell causes warming of the North Atlantic deep western boundary current by up to 1.5°C. FULL TEXT; https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2008GL036078
  2. Purkey, Sarah G., and Gregory C. Johnson. “Warming of global abyssal and deep Southern Ocean waters between the 1990s and 2000s: Contributions to global heat and sea level rise budgets.” Journal of Climate 23.23 (2010): 6336-6351.: Abyssal global and deep Southern Ocean temperature trends are quantified between the 1990s and 2000s to assess the role of recent warming of these regions in global heat and sea level budgets. The authors 1) compute warming rates with uncertainties along 28 full-depth, high-quality hydrographic sections that have been occupied two or more times between 1980 and 2010; 2) divide the global ocean into 32 basins, defined by the topography and climatological ocean bottom temperatures; and then 3) estimate temperature trends in the 24 sampled basins. The three southernmost basins show a strong statistically significant abyssal warming trend, with that warming signal weakening to the north in the central Pacific, western Atlantic, and eastern Indian Oceans. Eastern Atlantic and western Indian Ocean basins show statistically insignificant abyssal cooling trends. Excepting the Arctic Ocean and Nordic seas, the rate of abyssal (below 4000 m) global ocean heat content change in the 1990s and 2000s is equivalent to a heat flux of 0.027 (±0.009) W m−2 applied over the entire surface of the earth. Deep (1000–4000 m) warming south of the Subantarctic Front of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current adds 0.068 (±0.062) W m−2. The abyssal warming produces a 0.053 (±0.017) mm yr−1 increase in global average sea level and the deep warming south of the Subantarctic Front adds another 0.093 (±0.081) mm yr−1. Thus, warming in these regions, ventilated primarily by Antarctic Bottom Water, accounts for a statistically significant fraction of the present global energy and sea level budgets. LINK TO FULL TEXT; https://journals.ametsoc.org/jcli/article/23/23/6336/32723
  3. Roden, Gunnar I. “Thermohaline fronts and baroclinic flow in the Argentine Basin during the austral spring of 1984.” Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans 91.C4 (1986): 5075-5093. Thermohaline fronts, structure, and baroclinic flow in the central Argentine basin are investigated on the basis of a 1984 field experiment. The Brazil Current, after initial overshoot, meanders northeastward toward subtropical latitudes with speeds of the order of 0.3 m s−1. The meanders have a wavelength of about 400 km and an amplitude of 200 km. Brazil Current signatures, as expressed by dynamic height, are recognizable to depths of several kilometers. The Brazil and Antarctic Circumpolar currents do not meet in the central Argentine basin to form common eastward flow, as was expressed in classical descriptions, but instead diverge sharply near 42°W. This is seen also in the trajectories of satellite‐tracked drifters. The region between the currents is marked by cyclonic and anticyclonic eddies. Strong thermohaline fronts accompany the boundaries of these currents. The Brazil Current and sub-Antarctic fronts are well separated in the central basin. Brazil Current density fronts are deep and extend from the surface to 3000 m, while the associated temperature and salinity fronts are intermittent over this depth interval. Temperature fronts virtually vanish at the interface between the Antarctic Intermediate Water and the North Atlantic Deep Water. Salinity fronts reverse their polarity beneath the core of the former. At depths between 3000 and 4000 m, abyssal temperature and salinity fronts are observed which are largely density compensating. At the subantarctic and cold core eddy fronts, horizontal temperature and salinity gradients in the upper mixed layer compensate each other in such a way that no density front is found. Deep subpycnocline mixed layers occur in the poleward lobes of the Brazil Current during austral spring, suggestive of previous winter convection.
  4. Kouketsu, Shinya, et al. “Deep ocean heat content changes estimated from observation and reanalysis product and their influence on sea level change.” Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans 116.C3 (2011). We calculated basin‐scale and global ocean decadal temperature change rates from the 1990s to the 2000s for waters below 3000 m. Large temperature increases were detected around Antarctica, and a relatively large temperature increase was detected along the northward path of Circumpolar Deep Water in the Pacific. The global heat content (HC) change estimated from the temperature change rates below 3000 m was 0.8 × 1022 J decade−1; a value that cannot be neglected for precise estimation of the global heat balance. We reproduced the observed temperature changes in the deep ocean using a data assimilation system and examined virtual observations in the reproduced data field to evaluate the uncertainty of the HC changes estimated from the actual temporally and spatially sparse observations. From the analysis of the virtual observations, it is shown that the global HC increase below 3000 m during recent decades can be detected using the available observation system of periodic revisits to the same sampling sections, although the uncertainty is large. LINK TO FULL TEXT; https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2010JC006464
  5. Piecuch, Christopher G., et al. “Sensitivity of contemporary sea level trends in a global ocean state estimate to effects of geothermal fluxes.” Ocean Modelling 96 (2015): 214-220. Geothermal fluxes constitute a sizable fraction of the present-day Earth net radiative imbalance and corresponding ocean heat uptake. Model simulations of contemporary sea level that impose a geothermal flux boundary condition are becoming increasingly common. To quantify the impact of geothermal fluxes on model estimates of contemporary (1993–2010) sea level changes, two ocean circulation model experiments are compared. The two simulations are based on a global ocean state estimate, produced by the Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean (ECCO) consortium, and differ only with regard to whether geothermal forcing is applied as a boundary condition. Geothermal forcing raises the global-mean sea level trend by 0.11 mm yr−1 in the perturbation experiment by suppressing a cooling trend present in the baseline solution below 2000 m. The imposed forcing also affects regional sea level trends. The Southern Ocean is particularly sensitive. In this region, anomalous heat redistribution due to geothermal fluxes results in steric height trends of up to ± 1 mm yr−1 in the perturbation experiment relative to the baseline simulation. Analysis of a passive tracer experiment suggests that the geothermal input itself is transported by horizontal diffusion, resulting in more thermal expansion over deeper ocean basins. Thermal expansion in the perturbation simulation gives rise to bottom pressure increase over shallower regions and decrease over deeper areas relative to the baseline run, consistent with mass redistribution expected for deep ocean warming. These results elucidate the influence of geothermal fluxes on sea level rise and global heat budgets in model simulations of contemporary ocean circulation and climate.
  6. Purkey, Sarah G., and Gregory C. Johnson. “Antarctic Bottom Water warming and freshening: Contributions to sea level rise, ocean freshwater budgets, and global heat gain.” Journal of Climate 26.16 (2013): 6105-6122. Freshening and warming of Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW) between the 1980s and 2000s are quantified, assessing the relative contributions of water-mass changes and isotherm heave. The analysis uses highly accurate, full-depth, ship-based, conductivity–temperature–depth measurements taken along repeated oceanographic sections around the Southern Ocean. Fresher varieties of AABW are present within the South Pacific and south Indian Oceans in the 2000s compared to the 1990s, with the strongest freshening in the newest waters adjacent to the Antarctic continental slope and rise indicating a recent shift in the salinity of AABW produced in this region. Bottom waters in the Weddell Sea exhibit significantly less water-mass freshening than those in the other two southern basins. However, a decrease in the volume of the coldest, deepest waters is observed throughout the entire Southern Ocean. This isotherm heave causes a salinification and warming on isobaths from the bottom up to the shallow potential temperature maximum. The water-mass freshening of AABW in the Indian and Pacific Ocean sectors is equivalent to a freshwater flux of 73 ± 26 Gt yr−1, roughly half of the estimated recent mass loss of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. Isotherm heave integrated below 2000 m and south of 30°S equates to a net heat uptake of 34 ± 14 TW of excess energy entering the deep ocean from deep volume loss of AABW and 0.37 ± 0.15 mm yr−1 of sea level rise from associated thermal expansion. LINK to Full Text: https://journals.ametsoc.org/jcli/article/26/16/6105/33911

Location of Argentine margin in- dicating regional bathymetric map,... |  Download Scientific Diagram
South America Globe - Argentina and Atlantic Ocean
Map of Antarctica and the Southern Ocean. (Data from Australian... |  Download Scientific Diagram
Antarctic Peninsula Facts & Information - Beautiful World Travel Guide
Scheme of Antarctic Bottom Water propagation in the Atlantic Ocean |  Download Scientific Diagram

THIS POST IS A CRITICAL REVIEW OF A CLIMATE CHANGE ARTICLE PUBLSIHED BY THE CONVERSATION CITING THE WMO: LINK TO SOURCE: https://theconversation.com/earth-may-temporarily-pass-dangerous-1-5-warming-limit-by-2024-major-new-report-says-145450

United in Science report: Climate Change has not stopped for COVID19 | World  Meteorological Organization

CLAIM: The Paris climate agreement seeks to limit global warming to 1.5℃ this century. A new report by the World Meteorological Organisation warns this limit may be exceeded by 2024and the risk is growing. This first overshoot beyond 1.5℃ would be temporary, likely aided by a major climate anomaly such as an El Niño weather pattern. However, it casts new doubt on whether Earth’s climate can be permanently stabiliZed at 1.5℃ warming. This finding is among those just published in a report titled United in Science prepared by six leading science agencies, including the Global Carbon Project. RESPONE: Anthropogenic global warming (AGW) is a theory about long term trends in global mean temperature caused by the fossil fuel emissions of human activity. Natural short term climate events such as El Nino are part of nature’s INTERNAL CLIMATE VARIABILITY described in a related post [LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/07/16/the-internal-variability-issue/ . The attempt by the authors of an article on AGW climate change to interpret Internal Climate Variability as an AGW climate change issue serves as evidence not of a greater horror of AGW than previously thought but of the inadequate understanding of the AGW issue by the authors of the article. The AGW issue must be understood in terms of long term trends in global mean temperature that overlays regional and episodic weather and climate events. These events are part of natural internal climate variability. They have no interpretation in terms of in AGW climate change. Not just ENSO, but the Arctic and North Atlantic oscillations are also part of internal climate variability that is entirely natural and not part of AGW climate change.

File:3 examples of internal climate variability (1950-2012), the El Niño –  Southern Oscillation, the Arctic Oscillation, and the North Atlantic  Oscillation (NOAA).png - Wikimedia Commons

CLAIM: The report also found while greenhouse gas emissions declined slightly in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic, they remained very high – which meant atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations have continued to rise. Concentrations measured at Hawaii’s Mauna Loa Observatory and at Australia’s Cape Grim station in Tasmania show concentrations continued to increase in 2019 and 2020. In particular, CO₂ concentrations reached 414.38 and 410.04 parts per million in July this year, respectively, at each station. RESPONSE: It is true that atmospheric carbon dioxide has continued to rise without any change in the rate of the rise. This result is inconsistent with the theory of AGW climate change because at the very foundation of this theory is the proposition that the observed rise in atmospheric CO2 concentration is a creation of fossil fuel emissions and that this rise will come to a stop if we stop using fossil fuels by changing over to renewables such as wind and solar, and that it can be slowed by reducing the rate of emissions. That the reduction in emissions has not slowed the rise in atmospheric CO2 concentration is not evidence that anthropogenic global warming with fossil fuel emissions is worse that previously thought or that “the world may exceed the 1.5℃ warming threshold sooner than previously thought. It is evidence that the theory of anthropogenic global warming with fossil fuel emissions is flawed because the essential causation of rising atmospheric CO2 concentration at the very foundation of this theory is proven false.

This issue is described in some detail in a related post: LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/09/23/emission-reduction-atmospheric-co2/

CLAIM: Arctic Ocean sea-ice is disappearing. Satellite records between 1979 and 2019 show sea ice in the Arctic summer declined at about 13% per decade, and this year reached its lowest July levels on record. RESPONSE: Arctic sea ice is not disappearing. Sea ice there goes through a violent seasonal melt and growth cycle every year with the minimum sea ice extent and volume reached in the month of September. The loss of summer minimum sea ice extent at 1.3% per year on average is miniscule compared with the seasonal cycle in which 90% of the winter maximum is gone in September every year. The greater issue here is that the attribution of the observed decline in September minimum sea ice extent to anthropogenic global warming and the implied proposition is that it can and must be moderated by taking climate action are not supported by the evidence. As shown in these related posts: LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2019/11/07/precipitous-decline-in-arctic-sea-ice-volume/ LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2019/09/28/sea-ice-extent-area-1979-2018/ . The data do show a long term decline in September minimum sea ice but the necessary correlation at an annual time scale with the relevant AGW atmospheric temperature is not found.

It should be noted that the Arctic is geologically very active as described in a related post at this site: LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2019/07/01/arctic/ and as seen in the images below. Geological heat from submarine volcanism and mantle plumes in this region must be considered to understand the observed sea ice dynamics.

arctic-sea-ice3

bandicam 2019-07-01 16-29-44-526
arctic-sea-ice2

CLAIM: In Antarctica, summer sea ice reached its lowest and second-lowest extent in 2017 and 2018, respectively, and 2018 was also the second-lowest winter extent. RESPONSE: There are no long term trends in summer minimum sea ice extent in Antarctica as shown in a related post on this site: LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2018/08/06/antarctic-sea-ice-1979-2018/ . There have been some spectacular sea ice melt events in Antarctica but these events cannot be understood as trends and they have no interpretation in terms of anthropogenic global warming: LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2019/07/02/antarctic-sea-ice-collapse-of-2019/

antarctic-sea-ice-photo

Climate change: How could artificial photosynthesis contribute to limiting  global warming?
It's Worse Than You Think – Lower Emissions, Higher Ground - Yang2020 -  Andrew Yang for President
Politics of climate change - Wikipedia
Happy International Day of Peace 2019: "Climate Action for Peace" - Global  Campaign for Peace Education

THIS POST EXAMINES THE UNRESOLVED ISSUES WITH THE CARBON BUDGET IN CLIMATE SCIENCE. THE CONTEXT IS A RELATED POST WHERE WE SHOW THAT STATISTICAL EVIDENCE FOR THE EFFECTIVENESS OF CLIMATE ACTION IS FOUND IN CLIMATE MODELS BUT NOT IN THE OBSERVATIONAL DATA.

HERE WE PRESENT LINKS TO RELATED POSTS ON THIS SITE THAT EXAMINE THE CARBON BUDGET ISSUE.

RELATED POST: AN EXCLUSIVE RELIANCE ON FOSSIL FUEL EMISSIONS OVERLOOKS NATURAL CARBON FLOWS. LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2019/08/27/carbonflows/

RELATED POST: STATISTICAL FLAWS CREATE CLIMATE SCIENCE CONFUSION https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/04/09/climate-statistics/ HERE PIERRE FRIEDLINGSTEIN AND CO-AUTHORS STRUGGLE WITH EARTH SYSTEM MODEL COMPLEXITIES TO RATIONALIZE CARBON BUDGET COMPLEXITIES CREATED BY STATISTICAL ERRORS.

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RELATED POST#1: CARBON BUDGET UNCERTAINTY: CLIMATE SCIENTISTS RETO KNUTTI, JOERL ROGELJ, AND NATHAN GILLETT EXAMINE THE UNRESOLVED UNCERTAIINTY ISSUE IN CARBON BUDGETS. https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/08/26/carbon-budget-uncertainty/

Climate Home News | The Ecologist

RELATED POST#2: EARTH SYSTEM MODELS CAN RESOLVE CARBON BUDGET ISSUES: EXPLAINED BY IPCC CLIMATE SCIENTISTS DR. GREGORY FLATO. http://IPCC Climate Scientist Dr. Gregory Flato

SOES 3015 Palaeoclimate Models I: IPCC Context, Model Design & Use ...

RELATED POST#3: GRETA THUNBERG’S CARBON BUDGET https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/01/02/greta-thunbergs-carbon-budget/

GRETA SAYS she has not heard much on the subject of a “carbon budget from politicians or the media. But what’s left in our carbon budget is of utmost importance if we hope to limit global warming.

You Are Failing Us': Plans, Frustration at UN Climate Talks

RELATED POST #4: THE REMAINING CARBON BUDGET ANOMALY EXPLAINED: https://tambonthongchai.com/2019/12/25/the-remaining-carbon-budget-anomaly-explained/ The relevant consideration is that the TCRE regression coefficient has no interpretation in terms of climate phenomena because it is a spurious statistic – a creation of the oddities of the time series of the cumulative values of another time series as described in related posts [LINK] [LINK] .

Spurious correlations: Margarine linked to divorce? - BBC News

RELATED POST#5: THE REMAINING CARBON BUDGET PUZZLE EXAMINED BY CLIMATE SCIENTISTS RICHARD MILLAR AND PIERRE FRIEDLINGSTEIN. https://tambonthongchai.com/2019/11/08/remainingcarbonbudget/

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RELATED POST#6: SIMPLIFYING CLIMATE TO A SINGLE NUMBER; BY GLEN PETERS. https://tambonthongchai.com/2019/09/21/boondoggle/ QUOTE: “DR. GLEN PETERS: “THE CARBON BUDGET CONCEPT IS SEDUCTIVELY SIMPLE BUT HAS MYSTERIOUS UNCERTAINTIES AND MYSTERIOUS COMPLEXITIES”.

CICERO
Climate change and coronavirus: Five charts about the biggest carbon crash  - BBC News

RELATED POST#7: PRESENTING WORKS BY RICHARD MILLAR AND GLEN PETERS TRYING TO UNRAVEL THE HIDDEN COMPLEXITIES OF THE CARBON BUDGET – WITH COMMENTS: https://tambonthongchai.com/2019/08/16/carbonbudgetconundrum/

Glen Peters (@Peters_Glen) | Twitter

RELATED POST#8: CARBON BUDGETS AND THE TCRE: AN EXAMINATION OF THE STATISTICAL ISSUES IN THE TCRE THAT HAVE BEEN MIS-INTERPRETED AS CLIMATE SCIENCE ISSUES BY CLIMATE SCIENTISTS. https://tambonthongchai.com/2019/08/06/tcrebudget/

Climate sensitivity - Wikiwand

RELATED POST#9: CARBON BUDGETS AND CLIMATE MITIGATION PATHWAYS: AN EXAMINATION OF THE STATISTICAL ISSUES IN THE TCRE THAT CREATE CARBON BUDGET COMPLEXITIES. https://tambonthongchai.com/2019/01/14/carbonbudget/

Damon Matthews: Chasing climate change

RELATED POST#10: STATISTICAL FLAWS CREATE CLIMATE SCIENCE CONFUSION https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/04/09/climate-statistics/ HERE PIERRE FRIEDLINGSTEIN AND CO-AUTHORS STRUGGLE WITH EARTH SYSTEM MODEL COMPLEXITIES TO RATIONALIZE CARBON BUDGET COMPLEXITIES CREATED BY STATISTICAL ERRORS.

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00PIERRE

New study links Antarctic ice-shelf melt to global sea-level rise |  Environment| All topics from climate change to conservation | DW |  12.12.2017
Abrupt Sea Level Rise Looms As Increasingly Realistic Threat - Yale E360
Antarctic ice melt is accelerating and has tripled in recent years -  Business Insider

THIS POST IS A CRITICAL REVIEW OF A PHYS.ORG ARTICLE PUBLISHED IN OCTOBER 2020 SAYING THAT GLOBAL WARMING IS DRIVING ANTARCTIC ICE MELT AND GLOBAL SEA LEVEL RISE FASTER THAT PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. LINK TO THE PHYS.ORG ARTICLE: https://phys.org/news/2020-10-ice-underestimate-antarctic-contribution-sea.html THIS ASSEESSMENT IS CREDITED TO RESEARCH BY  MATTHEW CARROLL OF PENN STATE {PHOTO}.

Matt Carroll | Penn State College of Earth and Mineral Sciences

PART-1: WHAT THE REFERENCE ARTICLE SAYS

Ice melt projections may underestimate Antarctic contribution to sea level rise: by Matthew Carroll, Pennsylvania State University. Published in the journal Climate Dynamics

Fluctuations in the weather can have a significant impact on melting Antarctic ice, and models that do not include this factor can underestimate the global impact of sea level rise. We know ice sheets are melting as global temperatures increase, but uncertainties remain about how much and how fast that will happen. Our findings shed new light on one area of uncertainty, suggesting climate variability has a significant impact on melting ice sheets in Antarctica and the consequent sea level rise.

While it is understood that continued warming may cause rapid ice loss, models that predict how Antarctica will respond to climate change have not included the potential impacts of internal climate variability, like yearly and decadal fluctuations in the climate. Accounting for internal climate variability caused models to predict an additional 7 to 11 centimeters of sea level rise by 2100. The models projected roughly 27 to 38 centimeters of sea level rise during that same period without climate variability.

The increase of 7-11cm is comparable to the amount of sea level rise we have seen over the last few decades. Every bit adds on to the storm surge which we expect to see during hurricanes and other severe weather events, and the results can be devastating.

The Antarctic ice sheet is a complex system, and modeling how it will evolve under future climate conditions requires thousands of simulations and large amounts of computing power. Because of this, modelers test how the ice will respond using a mean temperature found by averaging the results of climate models.

However, that process smooths out peaks caused by internal climate variability and reduces the average number of days above temperature thresholds that can impact the ice sheet melt, creating a bias in the results. If we include variability in the simulations, we are going to have more warm days and more sunshine, and therefore when the daily temperature gets above a certain threshold it will melt the ice. If we’re just running with average conditions, we’re not seeing these extremes happening on yearly or decadal timescales.

To study the effects of internal climate variability, the researchers analyzed two large ensembles of climate simulations. Large ensembles are generated by starting each member with slightly different initial conditions. The chaotic nature of the climate system causes each member to yield slightly different responses, and this represents internally generated variability, the scientists said.

Instead of averaging the results of each ensemble, the scientists fed the atmospheric and oceanic data representing this variability into a three-dimensional Antarctic ice sheet model. They found atmospheric variations had a larger and more immediate impact on the ice sheet, but ocean variability was also a significant factor.

Extensive parts of the ice sheet are in contact with ocean water, and previous studies have suggested that warming oceans could cause large chunks to break away. The process may expose ice cliffs so tall that they collapse under their own weight, inducing a domino effect that further depletes the ice shelf.

The scientists found model simulations that did not include the effects of internal climate variability significantly delayed the retreat of the ice sheet by up to 20 years and underestimated future sea level rise.

“This additional ice melt will impact the hurricane storm surges across the globe. Additionally, for years, the IPCC reports have been looking at sea level rise without considering this additional variability and have been underestimating what the impact may be. It’s important to better understand these processes contributing to the additional ice loss because the ice sheets are melting much faster than we expected.

PART-2: CRITICAL COMMENT#1: Global warming in Antarctica

  1. In a related post, LINK: ttps://tambonthongchai.com/2020/06/22/global-warming-1979-2019/ it is shown with satellite temperature data that in the 40-year period 1979-2019, the global mean temperature had warmed at a rate of 1.3C per century, the Tropics by 1.2C per century, the North Polar region (the Arctic) by 2.57C per century, and the South Polar region (Antarctic) by 0.16C per century. Comparing the two polar regions with the global mean, we find that the the North Polar Region warmed at almost twice the rate of the global mean while the South Polar Region warmed at a rate of about 12% of the global mean temperature. These data show us that there isn’t a lot of anthropogenic global warming and climate change in Antarctica to cause the ice there to melt.
Explainer: how surface and satellite temperature records compare ...

PART-3: CRITICAL COMMENT#2: Geological Considerations:

YET, THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT ICE MELT EVENTS IN ANTARCTICA THAT RAISES A SEA LEVEL RISE CONCERN AMONG CLIMATE CHANGE RESEARCHERS. There are two very different explanations for this phenomenon. They are (1) an AGW explanation by climate change science, and (2) a geological explanation in the context of the known geological features of Antarctica. That the ice melt events in Antarctica are in the form of isolated events rather than trends, is consistent with the geological explanation. Both explanations acknowledge and cite the relative warmth of the deep Antarctic Circumpolar Current system (ACC) but offer different explanations for its relative warmth.

The AGW theory of ice melt in Antarctica: AGW warm tropical waters are carried to the the Antarctic through prevailing ocean currents. This is the heat source that warms the the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC). The warm ACC in turn melts glaciers and ice shelves from below. The ACC is depicted graphically in the images below. Where the ACC runs into the continental shelf it creates turbulent localized smaller circulations called gyres. The two major gyres in the ACC are the Weddel Gyre and the Ross Sea Gyre as seen in the charts below.

Turbulence in a climate model simulation of the Antarctic Circumpolar  Current [OC] - GIF on Imgur
The Antarctic Circumpolar Current | ferrebeekeeper

That tropical waters warm the ACC does make sense in terms of prevailing currents, temperature (Tropics 30C ACC 5C) ,and salinity (Tropics 37 ACC 34), but causation for the relative warmth of the ACC is a contentious issue because of the greater and more accessible sources of heat in Antarctica itself as seen in the geothermal heat map and bibliography below. Thus, although it is physically possible for ocean currents from the Tropics to cause warming of the Antarctic, geothermal heat in this region can’t be overlooked and their role in ice melt events must be considered because ice melt in Antarctica is not found as long term trends but as isolated and apparently unrelated events.

The relevant geological features of Antarctica are described in a related post LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2019/06/27/antarctica/ with specific reference to the West Antarctic Rift system (WAR), the Marie Byrd Mantle Plume, and the localization of Antarctic ice melt events to these regions. It should be mentioned in this regard that Antarctica attracts significant tourism mostly from South America with a primary tourism destination being the South Shetland Island portion of the WAR where we find one of the most active volcanoes in Antarctica called the Deception Island Collapse Caldera. A collapse caldera is what’s left when a volcano erupts so violently that the center of it collapses and then fills with water kept hot with geothermal heat where tourists can soak and relax in nature’s hot tub as seen in the image below.

kamis05
DECEPTION ISLAND COLLAPSE CALDERA

GEOTHERMAL HEAT MAP OF THE ANTARCTIC (Martos etal 2017)

YASMINA-1
YASMINA-2
dziadek2017

PART-4: CRITICAL COMMENT#3: WHAT DOES UNCERTAINTY MEAN?

The essential issue of this research paper is that climate model predictions of warming and ice melt tell us only the impact of AGW climate change that acts only over long periods of time and only over a global geographical span or significant latitudinal sections thereof. Over brief time spans such as annual or decadal and in geographically localized regions, the impact of AGW climate change cannot be detected because of internal climate variability. As described in a related post LINK https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/07/16/the-internal-variability-issue/ The essence of the internal climate variability issue is that “Internal variability in the climate system confounds assessment of human-induced climate change and imposes irreducible limits on the accuracy of climate change projections, especially at regional and decadal scales“.

The relevant information here is that internal climate variability imposes an additional level of uncertainty in climate change forecasts for short term or localized climate. Here, the Penn State authors of the research paper have interpreted uncertainty in a way that inserts circular reasoning and confirmation bias into the research findings. As explained in a related post LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/04/22/climate-science-uncertainty/ . “ UNCERTAINTY DOES NOT MEAN OH! LOOK HOW HIGH IT COULD BE. IT MEANS WE DON’T REALLY KNOW. THE LESS WE KNOW THE HIGHER IT COULD BE AND IN PERFECT IGNORANCE IT COULD BE AS HIGH AS INFINITY BECAUSE THE ANSWER IS NOT CONSTRAINED BY INFORMATION“.

This logic is fatally flawed but is common in climate science where it is a tradition to express uncertainty not as standard deviation or variance but as a confidence interval that shows how high and how low it could possibly be and that in turn invites a biased interpretation of these numbers. The additional amount of sea level rise attributed to uncertainty in the Penn State research paper is thus rejected on these fundamental statistical considerations.

THE OTHER ERROR IN THIS WORK IS THAT INTERNAL CLIMATE VARIABILITY IS NOT AGW CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE IMPACTS OF INTERNAL CLIMATE VARIABILITY CANNOT BE INTERPRETED AS SOMETHING CAUSED BY FOSSIL FUEL EMISSIONS THAT CAN BE MODERATED WITH CLIMATE ACTION IN THE FORM OF CUTTING OR ELIMINATING FOSSIL FUEL EMISSIONS.

IN CONCLUSION: THE DISCOVERY THAT THE VARIANCE IS GREATER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT DOES NOT MEAN WE KNOW MORE THAN WE THOUGHT WE DID. IT MEANS WE KNOW LESS THAN WE THOUGHT WE DID. HERE WE FIND THAT THE PENN STATE RESEARCH THAT INTERPRETED INTERNAL CLIMATE VARIABILITY AS UNCERTAINTY IN AGW CLIMATE CHANGE AND THEN INTERPRETD UNCERTAINTY AS NEW INFORMATION AS IN”OH LOOK HOW HIGH IT COULD BE”, IS FATALLY STATISTICALLY FLAWED AND IS REJECTED ON THIS BASIS.

How much and how fast will global sea level rise? - Bulletin of the Atomic  Scientists

RELATED POST ON CONFIRMATION BIAS IN CLIMATE CHANGE RESEARCH: LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2018/08/03/confirmationbias/

15 Cognitive Biases Which Influence The Way You Think | TeacherToolkit
What is UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS? What does UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS mean?  UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS meaning - YouTube

GEOTHERMAL HEAT FLUX BIBLIOGRAPHY

  1. Scambos, Ted A., et al. “The link between climate warming and break-up of ice shelves in the Antarctic Peninsula.” Journal of Glaciology 46.154 (2000): 516-530.  A review of in situ and remote-sensing data covering the ice shelves of the Antarctic Peninsula provides a series of characteristics closely associated with rapid shelf retreat: deeply embayed ice fronts; calving of myriad small elongate bergs in punctuated events; increasing flow speed; and the presence of melt ponds on the ice-shelf surface in the vicinity of the break-ups. As climate has warmed in the Antarctic Peninsula region, melt-season duration and the extent of ponding have increased. Most break-up events have occurred during longer melt seasons, suggesting that meltwater itself, not just warming, is responsible. Regions that show melting without pond formation are relatively unchanged. Melt ponds thus appear to be a robust harbinger of ice-shelf retreat. We use these observations to guide a model of ice-shelf flow and the effects of meltwater. Crevasses present in a region of surface ponding will likely fill to the brim with water. We hypothesize (building on Weertman (1973), Hughes (1983) and Van der Veen (1998)) that crevasse propagation by meltwater is the main mechanism by which ice shelves weaken and retreat. A thermodynamic finite-element model is used to evaluate ice flow and the strain field, and simple extensions of this model are used to investigate crack propagation by meltwater. The model results support the hypothesis.
  2. Convey, P., et al. “The flora of the South Sandwich Islands, with particular reference to the influence of geothermal heating.” Journal of Biogeography 27.6 (2000): 1279-1295.  Data obtained in 1997 are combined with updated records from the only previous survey (in 1964) to provide a baseline description of the flora of the archipelago, which currently includes 1 phanerogam, 38 mosses, 11 liverworts, 5 basidiomycete fungi, 41 lichenised fungi and 16 diatoms with, additionally, several taxa identified only to genus. Major elements of the moss and liverwort floras are composed of South American taxa (32% and 73%, respectively), with a further 45% of mosses having bipolar or cosmopolitan distributions. These two groups show low levels of Antarctic endemicity (11% and 18%, respectively). In contrast, 52% of lichens and 80% of basidiomycete fungi are endemic to the Antarctic. A further 36% of lichens are bipolar/cosmopolitan, with only 5% of South American origin. The flora of the South Sandwich Islands is clearly derived from those of other Antarctic zones. The flora of unheated ground is closely related to that of the maritime Antarctic, although with a very limited number of species represented. That of heated ground contains both maritime and sub‐Antarctic elements, confirming the importance of geothermal heating for successful colonisation of the latter group. The occurrence of several maritime Antarctic species only on heated ground confirms the extreme severity of the archipelago’s climate in comparison with well‐studied sites much further south in this biogeographical zone.
  3. Smith, RI Lewis. “The bryophyte flora of geothermal habitats on Deception Island, Antarctica.” The Journal of the Hattori Botanical Laboratory 97 (2005): 233-248.  Deception Island is one of the most volcanically active sites south of 60°S. Between 1967 and 1970 three major eruptions devastated large expanses of the landscape and its predominantly cryptogamic vegetation. Since 1970 extensive recolonisation has occurred on the more stable surfaces. Unheated ground supports several bryophyte and lichen communities typical of much of the maritime Antarctic, but geothermal habitats possess remarkable associations of bryophytes, many of the species being unknown or very rare elsewhere in the Antarctic. Nine geothermal sites were located and their vegetation investigated in detail. Communities associated with more transient sites have disappeared when the geothermal activity ceased. Mosses and liverworts occur to within a few centimetres of fumarole vents where temperatures reach 90-95℃, while temperatures within adjacent moss turf can reach 35-50℃ or more and remain consistently between 25 and 45℃. Most of the bryoflora has a Patagonian-Fuegian provenance and it is presumed that, unlike most species, the thermophiles are not pre-adapted to the Antarctic environment, being able to colonise only where the warm and humid conditions prevail.
  4. Vieira, Gonçalo, et al. “Geomorphological observations of permafrost and ground-ice degradation on Deception and Livingston Islands, Maritime Antarctica.” (2008): 1939-1844. The Antarctic Peninsula is experiencing one of the fastest increases in mean annual air temperatures (ca. 2.5oC in the last 50 years) on Earth. If the observed warming trend continues as indicated by climate models, the region could suffer widespread permafrost degradation. This paper presents field observations of geomorphological features linked to permafrost and ground-ice degradation at two study areas: northwest Hurd Peninsula (Livingston Island) and Deception Island along the Antarctic Peninsula. These observations include thermokarst features, debris flows, active-layer detachment slides, and rockfalls. The processes observed may be linked not only to an increase in temperature, but also to increased rainfall, which can trigger debris flows and other processes. On Deception Island some thermokarst (holes in the ground produced by the selective melting of permafrost)  features may be related to anomalous geothermal heat flux from volcanic activity.
  5. Mulvaney, Robert, et al. “Recent Antarctic Peninsula warming relative to Holocene climate and ice-shelf history.” Nature 489.7414 (2012): 141-144.  Rapid warming over the past 50 years on the Antarctic Peninsula is associated with the collapse of a number of ice shelves and accelerating glacier mass loss1,2,3,4,5,6,7. In contrast, warming has been comparatively modest over West Antarctica and significant changes have not been observed over most of East Antarctica8,9, suggesting that the ice-core palaeoclimate records available from these areas may not be representative of the climate history of the Antarctic Peninsula. Here we show that the Antarctic Peninsula experienced an early-Holocene warm period followed by stable temperatures, from about 9,200 to 2,500 years ago, that were similar to modern-day levels. Our temperature estimates are based on an ice-core record of deuterium variations from James Ross Island, off the northeastern tip of the Antarctic Peninsula. We find that the late-Holocene development of ice shelves near James Ross Island was coincident with pronounced cooling from 2,500 to 600 years ago. This cooling was part of a millennial-scale climate excursion with opposing anomalies on the eastern and western sides of the Antarctic Peninsula. Although warming of the northeastern Antarctic Peninsula began around 600 years ago, the high rate of warming over the past century is unusual (but not unprecedented) in the context of natural climate variability over the past two millennia. The connection shown here between past temperature and ice-shelf stability suggests that warming for several centuries rendered ice shelves on the northeastern Antarctic Peninsula vulnerable to collapse. Continued warming to temperatures that now exceed the stable conditions of most of the Holocene epoch is likely to cause ice-shelf instability to encroach farther southward along the Antarctic Peninsula.
  6. Fraser, Ceridwen I., et al. “Geothermal activity helps life survive glacial cycles.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 111.15 (2014): 5634-5639.  The evolution and maintenance of diversity through cycles of past climate change have hinged largely on the availability of refugia (places where life can survive through a period of unfavorable conditions such as glaciation). Geothermal refugia may have been particularly important for survival through past glaciations. Our spatial modeling of Antarctic biodiversity indicates that some terrestrial groups likely survived throughout intense glacial cycles on ice-free land or in sub-ice caves associated with areas of geothermal activity, from which recolonization of the rest of the continent took place. These results provide unexpected insights into the responses of various species to past climate change and the importance of geothermal regions in promoting biodiversity. Furthermore, they indicate the likely locations of biodiversity “hotspots” in Antarctica, suggesting a critical focus for future conservation efforts.
  7. An, Meijian, et al. “Temperature, lithosphere‐asthenosphere boundary, and heat flux beneath the Antarctic Plate inferred from seismic velocities.” Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth 120.12 (2015): 8720-8742.  We estimate the upper mantle temperature of the Antarctic Plate based on the thermoelastic properties of mantle minerals and S velocities using a new 3‐D shear velocity model, AN1‐S. Crustal temperatures and surface heat fluxes are then calculated from the upper mantle temperature assuming steady state thermal conduction. The temperature at the top of the asthenosphere beneath the oceanic region and West Antarctica is higher than the dry mantle solidus, indicating the presence of melt. From the temperature values, we generate depth maps of the lithosphere‐asthenosphere boundary and the Curie temperature isotherm. The maps show that East Antarctica has a thick lithosphere similar to that of other stable cratons, with the thickest lithosphere (~250 km) between Domes A and C. The thin crust and lithosphere beneath West Antarctica are similar to those of modern subduction‐related rift systems in East Asia. A cold region beneath the Antarctic Peninsula is similar in spatial extent to that of a flat‐subducted slab beneath the southern Andes, indicating a possible remnant of the Phoenix Plate, which was subducted prior to 10 Ma. The oceanic lithosphere generally thickens with increasing age, and the age‐thickness correlation depends on the spreading rate of the ridge that formed the lithosphere. Significant flattening of the age‐thickness curves is not observed for the mature oceanic lithosphere of the Antarctic Plate.
  8. Dziadek, Ricarda, et al. “Geothermal heat flux in the Amundsen Sea sector of West Antarctica: New insights from temperature measurements, depth to the bottom of the magnetic source estimation, and thermal modeling.” Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems 18.7 (2017): 2657-2672[FULL TEXT]  Focused research on the Pine Island and Thwaites glaciers, which drain the West Antarctic Ice Shelf (WAIS) into the Amundsen Sea Embayment (ASE), revealed strong signs of instability in recent decades that result from variety of reasons, such as inflow of warmer ocean currents and reverse bedrock topography, and has been established as the Marine Ice Sheet Instability hypothesis. Geothermal heat flux (GHF) is a poorly constrained parameter in Antarctica and suspected to affect basal conditions of ice sheets, i.e., basal melting and subglacial hydrology. Thermomechanical models demonstrate the influential boundary condition of geothermal heat flux for (paleo) ice sheet stability. Due to a complex tectonic and magmatic history of West Antarctica, the region is suspected to exhibit strong heterogeneous geothermal heat flux variations. We present an approach to investigate ranges of realistic heat fluxes in the ASE by different methods, discuss direct observations, and 3‐D numerical models that incorporate boundary conditions derived from various geophysical studies, including our new Depth to the Bottom of the Magnetic Source (DBMS) estimates. Our in situ temperature measurements at 26 sites in the ASE more than triples the number of direct GHF observations in West Antarctica. We demonstrate by our numerical 3‐D models that GHF spatially varies from 68 up to 110 mW m−2.
  9. Martos, Yasmina M., et al. “Heat flux distribution of Antarctica unveiled.” Geophysical Research Letters 44.22 (2017): 11-417.  [FULL TEXT]  Antarctica is the largest reservoir of ice on Earth. Understanding its ice sheet dynamics is crucial to unraveling past global climate change and making robust climatic and sea level predictions. Of the basic parameters that shape and control ice flow, the most poorly known is geothermal heat flux. Direct observations of heat flux are difficult to obtain in Antarctica, and until now continent‐wide heat flux maps have only been derived from low‐resolution satellite magnetic and seismological data. We present a high‐resolution heat flux map and associated uncertainty derived from spectral analysis of the most advanced continental compilation of airborne magnetic data. Small‐scale spatial variability and features consistent with known geology are better reproduced than in previous models, between 36% and 50%. Our high‐resolution heat flux map and its uncertainty distribution provide an important new boundary condition to be used in studies on future subglacial hydrology, ice sheet dynamics, and sea level change.
  10. Burton‐Johnson, Alex, et al. “A new heat flux model for the Antarctic Peninsula incorporating spatially variable upper crustal radiogenic heat production.” Geophysical Research Letters 44.11 (2017): 5436-5446.  A new method for modeling heat flux shows that the upper crust contributes up to 70% of the Antarctic Peninsula’s subglacial heat flux and that heat flux values are more variable at smaller spatial resolutions than geophysical methods can resolve. Results indicate a higher heat flux on the east and south of the Peninsula (mean 81 mW m−2) where silicic rocks predominate, than on the west and north (mean 67 mW m−2) where volcanic arc and quartzose sediments are dominant. While the data supports the contribution of heat‐producing element‐enriched granitic rocks to high heat flux values, sedimentary rocks can be of comparative importance dependent on their provenance and petrography. Models of subglacial heat flux must utilize a heterogeneous upper crust with variable radioactive heat production if they are to accurately predict basal conditions of the ice sheet. Our new methodology and data set facilitate improved numerical model simulations of ice sheet dynamics.