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Archive for October 2020

Confucianism - OMF (U.S.)

CONTEXT: In late 2020, Chinese leaders made a climate change announcement that is interpreted in the West as a climate action pledge with the widely held belief in the West that the announcement means that the world’s largest fossil fuel emitter will cut emissions to fight climate change.

Viral Poem Highlights Cult of China's Leader | Time

HERE IS THE CHINESE ANNOUNCEMENT AS REPORTED BY THE BBC

China will aim to hit peak emissions before 2030 and for carbon neutrality by 2060, President Xi Jinping has announced. Mr Xi outlined the steps China will take in a videolink to the UN General Assembly. The announcement is being seen as a significant step in the fight against climate change. China is the world’s biggest source of carbon dioxide, responsible for around 28% of global emissions.

Analysis: The final Paris climate deal | Carbon Brief

BEFORE CHINA’S 2020 CLIMATE ACTION PLAN THEY HAD A 2015 CLIMATE ACTION PLAN

CHINA ANNOUNCES ITS CLIMATE ACTION PLAN

Ahead of the Paris climate summit, Prime Minister Li Kegiang reaffirmed a November agreement to cap emissions by 2030. China plans to cut CO2 emissions 60 percent below 2005 levels and increase renewable energy consumption 20 percent by 2030. BBC

The Complexity of Vladimir Putin at Core of 'The New Tsar' | Chicago News |  WTTW

STEVEN LEE MYERS EXPLAINS CHINA’S POSITION (NYT)

Environmentalists have welcomed the pledge by China’s leader, Xi Jinping, to speed up reductions in emissions in the world’s top-polluting nation and reach carbon neutrality by 2060. The ambitious goal, which surprised many experts, could help significantly slow global warming. They warned, however, that Mr. Xi had offered almost no detail, raising doubts about the viability of targets that remain years in the future. China has long argued that as a developing economy it should not have to share the same burden of curbing emissions as developed nations whose pollution went unchecked for decades. China is now pledging to lead by example, setting itself goals befitting a country that aspires to be a superpower. Under the Paris climate deal reached in 2015, China pledged that its emissions would peak around 2030. And in 2020, Mr. Xi promises to move up that timetable, though he did not provide specifics. The bigger surprise, analysts said, was Mr. Xi’s pledge to reach “carbon neutrality” — meaning China’s net emissions will reach zero by 2060. China is now on record setting the goal for the first time. There are plenty of reasons for caution. In recent years, analysts have warned about worrisome trends in the country’s commitment to fight global warming in the face of economic slowdowns. Coal consumption, which had declined from 2013 to 2017, driven in part by a push to improve China’s notorious air quality, began to rise again in recent years as the economy faced economic headwinds and the government sought to stimulate industrial growth. The rise was interrupted by the Covid-19 shutdown. China’s economy is recovering from the Covid slowdown more quickly than others. Research by Mr. Myllyvirta has shown that by May, carbon dioxide emissions from energy production, cement making and other industrial uses were 4 percent higher than the year before. China also granted more construction permits for coal-fired power plants in the first six months of 2020 than it had each year in 2018 and 2019. Mr. Xi, in laying out his country’s plans in a speech at the United Nations, did not detail how China would meet the targets. Li Shuo, a policy adviser for Greenpeace China, said that the lack of specificity was probably intended to leave the Communist Party leadership flexibility in the short term to pursue an economic rebound following the pandemic. The government’s next five-year plan, to be released soon, will be a key document, detailing the necessary economic, industrial and environmental changes that will be necessary. While China clings to industries that are consumers of coal, it has also emerged as a leader in clean energy technologies, including solar panels and wind turbines. It is the world’s largest manufacturer of electric cars and buses. That could leave the government well positioned to make a transition away from fossil fuels, provided the political commitment is there. China could also ramp up its ambitions to build nuclear power plants to replace coal-fired plants, though that would prompt other environmental and safety questions. Wang Wenbin, a spokesman for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, touted the growth of renewable energy, saying China’s capacity now accounted for 30 percent of the world’s total. Meeting the new goals “reflects China’s willingness to work with other countries to build a vigorous, clean and beautiful world with a shared future for mankind. Mr. Xi has previously pledged to increase government support for new technologies, while doing more to fight pollution, protect natural resources and expand the country’s national park networks. Preserving the Communist Party’s power remains his first priority, but pollution and other environmental threats are increasingly seen as threats to the party’s standing. That was evident in this summer’s devastating floods on the Yangtze River and its tributaries in central China. “Humankind can no longer afford to ignore the repeated warnings of nature,” Mr. Xi said on Tuesday, addressing the General Assembly by video.

Solar Manufacturing Limited in China | SolarFeeds Marketplace

CHINA’S GLOBAL ECONOMIC AMBITIONS AND CLIMATE CHANGE

BIBLIOGRAPHY: CLIMATE ACTION IN CHINA

  1. Lewis, Joanna I. “China’s strategic priorities in international climate change negotiations.” Washington Quarterly 31.1 (2008): 155-174. Climate Action in China: Although the goal of “building a resource-efficient and environment-friendly society” is prominent in China’s current five-year plan, many obstacles must be overcome before achieving it. These challenges shape the way China is approaching climate mitigation at the domestic level, as well as its position in international negotiations. A look at the Chinese institutions that have been responsible for climate change policy is one way to understand how the government has approached this issue over time. Starting in the 1980s, China treated climate change as a scientific issue and gave the State Meteorological Administration the responsibility of advising the government on policy options in international negotiations surrounding the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). As political awareness and sensitivity surrounding climate change increased in the late 1990s, this role shifted to the more powerful State Development and Planning Commission, which has since evolved into the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC). The move indicated a shift in the relative value given to the issue, as well as perhaps a shift in perspective from a scientific issue to predominantly a development issue. The NDRC also serves as the primary energy policy decision-making authority in China, and this move may have reflected the clear need for climate priorities to be coordinated better with energy decisions. It is now home to the National Coordination Committee on Climate Change, which oversees climate activities within the NDRC, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Ministry of Science and Technology, and the State Environmental Protection Administration (SEPA). Today, the NDRC and the Foreign Ministry are responsible for formulating China’s international negotiation positions. Further institutional change came recently with the release of China’s nation.
  2. China’s climate change policy: Domestic and international developments G Heggelund – Asian perspective, 2007 – JSTOR: This article demonstrates that prospects for emission reduction are not realistic under the current policy environment, and China is unlikely to take on commitments in the near future. The major determinants of and actors involved in China’s climate change policy are discussed, relating these to China’s stance in global climate change negotiations. Energy is seen as the key to economic development and is one of the main causes for China’s unwillingness to take on emission reduction commitments. Vulnerability to climate change is an emerging issue in China, and could contribute to elevating the climate change issue on China’s domestic agenda in the future. Global climate change is still seen as a remote matter by the country’s policy makers, and remains a foreign-policy issue. International pressure has not been able to change Beijing’s stance of no commitments, although China is now an active participant in the Clean Development Mechanism (COM), which has become a way to apply an international mechanism on domestic problems and one of the channels that China itself prefers to use in its climate-change efforts. {Asian Perspective presents critical analysis of the global, regional, and transnational issues affecting Northeast Asia. The journal brings cogent, thought-provoking examination of the significant developments in Asia and the world and promotes a healthy exchange of ideas among scholars, students, and policymakers.}
  3. Richerzhagen, Carmen, and Imme Scholz. “China’s capacities for mitigating climate change.” World Development 36.2 (2008): 308-324. Economic growth and structural change have turned China into the largest emitter of greenhouse gases in the world. The country has no international commitments to reduce its emissions, but it has developed domestic policies and climate-relevant capacities which do have mitigative effects. Economic and political reforms have supported capacity development. However, so far China’s climate-relevant actions have not been influenced by climate considerations. Potential emission reductions are mainly a by-product of measures embedded in energy and transport policies aimed at cutting energy costs and increasing energy security.
  4. Heggelund, Gørild M., and Inga Fritzen Buan. “China in the Asia–Pacific Partnership: consequences for UN climate change mitigation efforts?.” International Environmental Agreements: Politics, Law and Economics 9.3 (2009): 301-317. This article discusses China’s motives for participation in the Asia–Pacific Partnership on Clean Development and Climate (APP), and whether this has or will have consequences for its participation and efforts in the UN track of international climate governance. In order to discuss these issues, it also provides an outline of key national priorities and explains the nature of China’s involvement in both the UN track and the APP. It suggests that the APP is a complement to the UN process, not a competitor, in the case of China. APP participation represents a win–win situation in terms of the transfer of technology and know-how for solving challenges related to energy security and greenhouse gas emissions. For the Chinese leadership, this seems preferable to taking on UN commitments which it fears would impede economic development. The APP’s projects also seem to complement the Kyoto Protocol’s Clean Development Mechanism project in China. This article argues that there is little indication that China would make less of an effort under the UN track.
  5. Jeon, Hyung-Kwon, and Seong-Suk Yoon. “From international linkages to internal divisions in China: The political response to climate change negotiations.” Asian Survey 46.6 (2006): 846-866. In negotiations about climate change, China has participated as both a cooperator and a defector. To explain China’s contradictory attitude, this article examines both international and domestic factors. Although international linkages played an important role in earlier stages, their influence was significantly limited by domestic constraints as the negotiations deepened.
Chinese wind turbine maker may bid for Vestas - Business - Chinadaily.com.cn

CHINA’S ECONOMIC INTEREST IN CLIMATE ACTION

SOLAR PANEL MANFACTURE AND EXPORT

China's Solar-Panel Makers Dominate Global Exports - Caixin Global

WIND TURBINE MANUFACTURING AND EXPORT

GE confirms plan to build world's biggest wind turbine in China | Recharge
Wind turbine manufacturing, Nantong, Jiangsu, China Stock Photo - Alamy

Record Vestas wind blade cargo on giant boat from China | Recharge

THE RISE OF CHINA AND APPREHENSION IN THE WEST

  1. White, Hugh. “Power shift: rethinking Australia’s place in the Asian century.” Australian Journal of International Affairs 65.1 (2011): 81-93. Australian foreign and strategic policy has not yet begun to address the implications for Australia’s international situation of China’s growing power. China today already challenges the American leadership that has kept Asia peaceful and Australia secure for many decades. There are real and growing risks that Washington and Beijing will not find a way to work together peacefully as relative power shifts from one to the other. Unless they do, Asia’s future is bleak, and so is Australia’s. Australia therefore needs to work to promote a new order in Asia which accommodates China’s power without conceding more than is necessary to keep the peace. This will mean encouraging America to forgo primacy in Asia in favour of working with China and others in a shared regional leadership. Australia also needs to start preparing for the possibility that Asia will become a more contested and dangerous place over coming decades, and consider what its options would be. None of them appear attractive.
  2. Phillips, Andrew. “A dangerous synergy: energy securitization, great power rivalry and strategic stability in the Asian century.” The Pacific Review 26.1 (2013): 17-38. This paper analyzes the current and prospective implications of Asia’s energy consumption revolution for regional stability. Adopting a comparative and historical approach, I argue that Japanese energy security anxieties worked to reinforce regional alignment patterns in East Asia for nearly two decades following the Shanghai communiqué, thereby strengthening regional stability. Conversely, the post-Cold War period has seen in China and India’s rise the emergence of Asian energy super-consumers that are not formally aligned with the United States, but that are increasingly dependent on imported energy supplies to fuel their industrialization. This newfound dependence on energy imports has seen both countries follow Japan’s longstanding example in securitizing energy as a policy issue. In the context of an already more contested Asia, this trend towards energy securitization has aggravated regional tensions and will continue to do so unless greater efforts are undertaken bilaterally, regionally and globally to foster more effective forms of energy cooperation.
  3. Hartig, Falk. “Confucius Institutes and the rise of China.” Journal of Chinese Political Science 17.1 (2012): 53-76. Since 2004 China has set up over 700 Confucius Institutes and Confucius Classrooms around the world to promote its language and culture and thereby to shape its image as a global player. Despite this impressive number Confucius Institutes are surprisingly understudied, especially in terms of their actual structure, operation mode and activities. This paper uses German Confucius Institutes as a case study to bridge this gap. It first discusses the concepts of public and cultural diplomacy and culture institutes as a conceptual tool to analyze Confucius Institutes. It then turns to the case study to provide empirical data to better understand this instrument of China’s image shaping efforts. It argues that Confucius Institutes are connected to the rise of China and a unique member of the family of national culture institutes.
  4. A Balancing Act: China’s Role in Climate Change. Karl Hallding, Guoyi Han and Marie Olsson. 2009: Climate change has reached the apex of the global agenda at a time when China faces significant development and energy security challenges. The political leadership and leading intellectuals are debating the direction of a new development pathway that provides both growth to meet development objectives, and dramatically reduces energy intensity and pollution. There are four key aspects that illustrate how climate change is conceived by the Chinese leadership. This signals that China may come to play a much more important role in global mitigation of climate change than was thought only a couple of years ago. The leadership’s main concern is with the impacts on economic and social stability and the interplay with other development and environmental challenges. There are considerable low-carbon opportunities for China. Geopolitics: China’s ambition to be seen as a responsible world actor influences its range of options within global climate talks. Development: Climate change is still predominantly a development issue in China. There are tradeoffs due to the harm that climate action can cause to development. Development is fueled by energy and China’s priority is development. Energy security is one of China’s priorities, closely linked with concern’s of economic development, poverty alleviation and social stability. The legitimacy of the Chinese Communist Party depends on its ability to deliver continued reform and development, – it is also about political survival. Since 1994, domestic oil supply has not keep pace with demand and China is presently covering half of its oil demand from imports. With increasing demands from transportation and petrochemicals, China’s dependency on imported oil and on coal imports is rising as as domestic production cannot meet increasing demands in the rapidly developing eastern provinces. China shows its political commitment to climate action by setting ambitious targets that bear on climate mitigation and adaptation but these targets are normally not met. For example the target of 15 percent renewables in the primary energy mix by 2020 remains a target. China is now getting closer to meeting its 20 percent energy intensity reduction target but that too remains a target.
  5. Hilton, Isabel, and Oliver Kerr. “The Paris Agreement: China’s ‘New Normal’role in international climate negotiations.” Climate Policy 17.1 (2017): 48-58. Contributing to the political success of the Paris Agreement was China’s emergence as a more positive participant in the international climate change negotiations. Despite efforts to reduce energy and carbon intensity since the mid-2000s, Chinese negotiators in Copenhagen were careful not to link domestic action on climate change to any presumptions of international obligation. This stands in marked contrast to Paris where, for the first time, China was willing to commit to an absolute cap on emissions subject to international measurement, reporting, and verification (MRV). This article examines what changed between 2009 and 2015 such that China was able to play a more constructive role in the global climate regime. It argues that a key driver of change was China’s shift to a ‘New Normal’ model of economic development. Beginning in the 12th Five Year Plan Period (2011–2015), China’s economic policy prioritized a transition from energy-intensive growth based on heavy industry, exports and investment, to a more balanced economy characterized by slower growth, an increasing role for services and domestic consumption, and a focus on innovation and low-carbon technologies. This transition gave China the opportunity to re-formulate its priorities in international climate negotiations and helped pave the way for increased climate cooperation with the US, the lack of which had been a major roadblock to success in Copenhagen. Progress was further facilitated by a range of external factors, including impressive French diplomacy in the run-up to COP21 and the important shift to a bottom-up, voluntary approach to commitments.

Viral Poem Highlights Cult of China's Leader | Time

ONLINE COMMENTARIES IN THE WEST ON CHINESE CLIMATE ACTION DECLARATIONS

  1. ECOWATCH: China’s President Xi Jinping surprised the global community recently by committing his country to net-zero emissions by 2060. China currently accounts for about 28% of global carbon emissions – double the U.S. contribution and three times the European Union’s. Meeting the pledge will demand a deep transition of not just China’s energy system, but its entire economy. It remains to be seen whether China’s climate promise is genuine, or simply a ploy to win international favor.
  2. XINHUANET: There is no doubt that efforts from China will play a major role in shaping how the rest of the world progresses on climate action, especially in the absence of U.S. federal leadership.
  3. GUARDIAN: China will reach carbon neutrality before 2060 and ensure its greenhouse gas emissions peak in the next decade, Xi Jinping has told the UN general assembly. China will scale up its intended nationally determined contributions [under the Paris climate agreement] by adopting more vigorous policies and measures, the Chinese president said, calling for a “green recovery” from the coronavirus pandemic. The forthright commitment will give fresh impetus to the UN’s efforts to galvanise action on the climate crisis which has been flagging.
  4. CHINA DAILY: China’s pledge to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060-that is, netzero carbon emissions-puts the country on a transformative development path. Net-zero carbon emissions will be a ginormous turnaround in four decades and has to be done without too much negative impact on economic development. President Xi Jinping’s announcement at the United Nations on Sept 22 marked the first time China has set an absolute rather than a carbon-intensity target tied to GDP growth. In other words, it is much more ambitious. The pledge by China, as one of the world’s biggest carbon emitters, is just beginning to be digested around the world and will reverberate across energy, commodities and financial markets for a long time. Its new pledge represents a leading bid in meeting the climate-change mitigation challenge. The implications are profound.
  5. DIALOGO CHINO: In a virtual address to the 75th UN General Assembly on 22 September, Chinese President Xi Jinping said China would reach peak emissions before 2030 and strive to reach carbon neutrality before 2060. These pledges are a significant step forward in climate ambition from the world’s largest carbon emitter and second largest economy. All governments are required to deliver tougher climate targets under the Paris Agreement ahead of COP26, which were delayed until 2021 because of Covid-19. With commitments from the EU and China, well over a third of global emissions will be covered by new, tougher targets.
  6. NYT: China’s Pledge to Be Carbon Neutral by 2060: Under international pressure to do more to address global warming, Xi Jinping made a surprise commitment to drastically reduce emissions. Now comes the hard part – actually doing it.
Solar Manufacturing Limited in China | SolarFeeds Marketplace

CRITICAL COMMENTARY AND CONCLUSIONS

(1) China is the world’s largest emitter of fossil fuel emissions. With a population of 1.4 billion and per capita emissions of 7.2 metric tonnes of CO2 per person, China’s total emissions are 10.08 gigatons of CO2 that represents about 27.5% of global emissions. The climate change focus on China derives from this significant statistic. Overlooked in this statistic is that these emissions come mostly from export oriented manufacturing and not from consumption with much of the industry consisting of overseas manufacturing facilities of Western business enterprise. Although China is the largest economy in the world with a gross national GDP of $27 trillion in 2019, this figure is driven largely by industry and by population and not by consumption and living standard. A partial list of Western business enterprises that operate their factories in China, provided by JIESWORLD.COM, appears below. These factories and their products are of the West by the West and for the West but their emissions appear in China’s account. The West has exported its emissions to China.

(2) An important sector of export oriented industrial production in China that contributes to much of the fossil fuel emissions noted above, is the manufacture of solar panels and wind turbines for export to Western countries. The importer of these products benefits from emission reduction but the emissions for their manufacture accumulate in China’s emission account. In 2019 China exported about $18 billion of solar panels with total energy production capacity of more than 200 GW. The export of wind turbines that year was $12 billion with energy capacity of more than 400 MW. Thus, much of the West’s manufacturing emissions including the emissions from the manufacture of renewable energy equipment is offloaded to China. {Footnote: China’s domestically installed renewable energy capacity is about 400 GW divided almost equally between wind and solar}.

(3): With regard to the wealth of China described as the largest economy in the world, it should be noted that the gross GDP of the country was $14.4 trillion in 2019 compared with $21.4 trillion for the USA but in terms of purchasing power parity (PPP), the adjusted PPP GDP are China $25.3 and USA $17 trillion. This PPP-GDP comparison is the basis of the assessment that China is the largest economy in the world – but this direct comparison of PPP-GDP as a measure of the wealth and standard of living is flawed in a financial context because the poorer you are and the lower your cost of living, the higher your PPP-GDP gets. The GPD assessment also contains the hidden flaw that China’s GDP derives not from consumption but from export oriented industrial production that makes goods for export to the West at lower cost than would be possible in the West. In terms of per capita consumption, China lags way behind the West with $3,224 per person in 2019 compared with $45,000 in the USA. The analysis provided above implies that significant social and structural differences make it impossible to make a direct comparison of gross national GDP and that therefore from the consumer’s point of view, China is not the richest country in the world.

(4) A similar error is found in a direct comparison of emissions. First, emissions in China are primarily industrial emissions and not consumer emissions. Second, much of these emissions come from two sources that have a direct link to the West. These are, (i) Western firms that have chosen to locate their factory in China, and (ii) Chinese factories that are making solar panels and wind turbines for the West. The ownership of these emissions must therefore have a more rational distribution than a single minded consideration of national boundaries.

(5) There is also a cultural issue in the emission confrontation between China and the West. Absolute literal truth no matter how ugly is a foundational principle of Western Civilization. Confucian philosophy contains the Li Principle. It affirms that manners are a primary means by which we express moral attitudes and carry out important moral goals. Confucian views on ritual extend this insight further by emphasizing the role that manners play in cultivating good character and in finding the conceptual boundaries of manners. What we call etiquette, social customs, and ritual Confucians see as expressions of Li , something we would understand as decorum. It expresses moral character and attitude. Li expresses the principle that good etiquette and good manners cultivate and express good intentions and good character. {SOURCE: Cline, E.M. The Boundaries of Manners: Ritual and Etiquette in Confucianism. Dao 15, 241–255 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11712-016-9490-1 (abbreviated and edited)}

(6) CONCLUSION: We propose in this post that the arguments presented in items (1) to (4) above imply that a confrontational attitude of the West with respect to China’s emissions contains serious weaknesses because the complexity of this issue is not taken into account. The Chinese response to Western demands for a greater climate action role of China is best understood in this light and in terms of the principle of Li in Confucianism.

Here Xi Jinping has risen above the petty arguments in items (1) to (4) to calm the discourse with declarations of good intentions and expressions of good character that should probably be understood in terms of the Principle of Li in Confucianism. A bitter confrontation is not in either party’s interest because of the deep economic linkages described above.

Yet, these expressions of Li may have been taken literally in the West. The communication is likely made difficult by cultural differences.

Made in China: GM Might Introduce Chinese-Made Buicks to US Market -  Sputnik International

A SMALL SAMPLE OF THE LONG LIST OF WESTERN BUSINESSES THAT OPERATE THEIR FACTORIES IN CHINA

Abercrombe & Fitch, Abbott Laboratories, Acer Electronics, Adidas, AGI- American Gem Institute, Agrilink Foods, Inc., Allergan Laboratories, American Eagle Outfitters, American Standard, American Tourister, Ames Tools, Amphenol Corporation, Amway Corporation, Analog Devices, Inc., Apple Computer, Armani, Armour Meats, Ashland Chemical, Ashley Furniture, Audi Motors, AudioVox, AutoZone, Inc., Avon, Banana Republic, Bausch & Lomb, Inc., Baxter International, Bed, Bath & Beyond, Belkin Electronics, Best Foods, Big 5 Sporting Goods, Black & Decker, Body Shop, Borden Foods, Briggs & Stratton, Calrad Electric, Campbell ‘s Soup, Canon Electronics, Carole Cable, Casio Instrument, Caterpillar, Inc., CBC America, CCTV Outlet, Checker Auto, Cisco Systems, Chiquita Brands International, Claire’s Boutique, Cobra Electronics, Coby Electronics, Coca Cola Foods, Colgate-Palmolive, Colorado Spectrum, ConAgra Foods, Cooper Tire, Corning, Inc., Coleman Sporting Goods, Compaq, Crabtree & Evelyn, Cracker Barrel Stores, Craftsman Tools, Cummins, Inc., Dannon Foods, Dell Computer, Del Monte Foods, Dewalt Tools, Dial Corporation, Diebold, Inc., Dillard’s, Inc., Dodge-Phelps, Dole Foods, Dow-Corning, Eastman Kodak, EchoStar, Eclipse CCTV, Edge Electronics Group, Electric Vehicles USA, Inc., Eli Lilly Company, Emerson Electric, Enfamil, Estee Lauder, Eveready, Fisher Scientific, Ford Motors, Frito Lay, Furniture Brands International, Gateway Computer, GE General Electric, General Foods International, General Mills, General Motors, Gentek, Gerber Foods, Gillette Company, Goodrich Company, Goodyear Tire, Gucci, Haagen-Dazs, Harley Davidson, Hasbro Company, Heinz Foods, Hershey Foods, Hitachi, Hoffman-LaRoche, Holt’s Automotive Products, Hormel Foods, Home Depot, Honda Motor, Hoover Vacuum, HP Computer, Honda, Honeywell, Hubbell Inc., Huggies, Hunts-Wesson Foods, ICON Office Solutions, IBM, Ikea, Intel Corporation, J.M. Smucker Company, John Deere, Johnson Control, Johnson & Johnson, Johnstone Supply, JVC Electronics, KB Home, Keebler Foods, Kenwood Audio, Kimberly Clark, Knorr Foods, Kohler, Kohl’s Corporation, Kraft Foods, Kragen Auto, Land’s End, Lee Kum Kee Foods, Lexmark, LG Electronics, Lipton Foods, L.L. Bean, Inc., Logitech, Libby’s Foods, Linen & Things, Lipo Chemicals, Inc., Lowe’s Hardware, Lucent Technologies, Lufkin, Mars Candy, Martha Stewart Products, Mattel, McCormick Foods, McKesson Corporation, Megellan GPS, Memorex, Merck & Company, Mitsubishi Electronics, Mitsubishi Motors, Mobile Oil, Molex, Motorola, Motts Applesauce, Multifoods Corporation, Nabisco Foods, National Semiconductor, Nescafe, Nestles Foods, Nextar, Nike, Nikon, Nivea Cosmetics, Nokia Electronics, Northrop Grumman Corporation, NuSkin International, Nvidia Corporation, Office Depot, Olin Corporation, Old Navy,
Olympus Electronics, Orion-Knight Electronics, Pacific Sunwear, Inc., Pamper’s, Panasonic, Pan Pacific Electronics, Panvise, Papa Johns, Payless Shoesource, Pelco, Pentax Optics, Pep Boy’s, Pepsico International, Petco, Pfizer, Inc., Philips Electronics, Phillip Morris Companies, Pierre Cardin, Pillsbury Company, Pioneer Electronics, Pitney Bowes, Inc., Plantronics, PlaySchool Toys, Polaris Industries, Polaroid, Post Cereals, Pfister, Pringles,
Praxair, Proctor & Gamble, PSS World Medical, Pyle Audio, Qualcomm, Quest One, Ralph Loren, RCA, Reebok International, Reynolds Aluminum, Revlon, Rohm & Hass Company, Samsonite, Samsung, Sanyo, Shell Oil, Schwinn Bike, Sears-Craftsman, Sharp Electronics, Sherwin-Williams, Shure Electronics, Sony, Speco Technologies, Skechers Footwear, SmartHome, Smucker’s, Solar Power, Inc., Stanley Tools, Staple’s, Steelcase, Inc., STP Oil, Sunkist Growers, SunMaid Raisins, Sunkist, Switchcraft Electronics, SYSCO Foods, Sylvania Electric, 3-M, Tamron Optics, TDK, Tektronix, Inc, Texas Instruments, Timex, Timken Bearing, Tommy Hilfiger, Toro, Toshiba, Tower Automotive, Toyota, Toy’s R Us, Inc., Tripp-lite, Tupper Ware, Tyson Foods, Uniden Electronics, Valspar Corporation, Victoria ‘s Secret, Vizio Electronics,
Volkswagen, VTech, WD-40 Corporation, Weller Electric Company, Western Digital, Westinghouse Electric, Weyerhaeuser Company, Whirlpool, Wilson Sporting Goods, Wrigley, WW Grainger, Inc., Wyeth Laboratories, X-10, Xelite, Xerox, Yamaha, Yoplait Foods, Yum Brands, Zale Corporation.

What we do | Shell China

Biblioteca

The Collapse of Complex Societies – Joseph Tainter – Séamus Sweeney
European-American blog: Joseph Tainter: 'The Collapse of Complex Societies.'  Part Two
Collapse of Complex Societies | Bulldozer00's Blog
The Oil Drum | Joseph Tainter - Human Resource Use: Timing and Implications  for Sustainability

THIS POST IS A FURTHER STUDY OF OUR OBSESSION WITH A COMING COLLAPSE OF CIVILIZATION PRESENTED IN RELATED POSTS:

LINK#1: https://tambonthongchai.com/2018/08/16/collapse/

LINK#2: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/02/29/prophets-of-doom/

LINK#3: https://tambonthongchai.com/2019/04/16/theend/

Sir David Attenborough joins Instagram to warn 'the world is in trouble' -  BBC News
James Hansen wishes he wasn't so right about global warming
Doomster Paul Ehrlich Unrepentant: “My language would be even more  apocalyptic today.” – Reason.com

OUR OBSESSION WITH THE COMING COLLAPSE OF HUMAN CIVILIZATION THAT PLAYS AN IMPORTANT ROLE IN ENVIRONMENTALISM IS SEEN IN THE POPULATION BOMB HYPOTHESIS AND THE CATASTROPHIC ANTHROPOGENIC GLOBAL WARMING HYPOTHESIS DESCRIBED IN RELATED POSTS ON THIS SITE.

THE OBSESSION IS BASED ON THE RISE AND FALL DYNAMICS OF CIVILIZATION SEEN THROUGHOUT HISTORY FROM THE NEOLITHIC REVOLUTION AT THE START OF THE HOLOCENE TO THE PRESENT. THIS POST IS A CRITICAL REVIEW OF THIS LINE OF THINKING.

From Hunters to Settlers: How the Neolithic Revolution Changed the World |  Ancient Origins
Space Age: Nasa's Story | WTTW

ABSTRACT: HERE WE USE A VOLATILITY MODEL FOR THE RISE AND FALL DYNAMICS OF CIVILIZATION AND PROPOSE THAT THE SPECTACULAR ADVANCE IN HUMAN WELFARE FROM THE NEOLITHIC REVOLUTION TO THE TECHNOLOGICAL ADVANCES OF THE INDUSTRIAL ECONOMY IS THE CREATION OF THIS VOLATILE PROCESS. THE HUMAN OBSESSION WITH FEAR OF A COLLAPSE OF CIVILIZATION IS INCONSISTENT WITH THE VOLATILITY MODEL WHERE THE HISTORY OF REPEATED RISE AND FALL OF CIVILIZATION IS SEEN NOT AS A ZERO SUM GAME BUT SIMPLY AS THE VOLATILITY IN THE PROCESS THAT CREATES LONG TERM GAINS. THE VOLATILITY MODEL IS CONSISTENT WITH THE RESILIENCE MODEL OF FAULSEIT AND INCONSISTENT WITH THE COMPLEXITY MODEL OF TAINTER BECAUSE THE SUBSEQUENT RESILIENT RISES OF CIVILIZATIONS CREATE GREATER AND GREATER COMPLEXITY AND ACHIEVE GREATER AND GREATER HUMAN WELFARE THEREBY.

Joseph Tainter | GenevaGlobal

JOSEPH TAINTER: ARCHAEOLOGIST, ANTHROPOLOGIST, HISTORIAN

PART-1: WHAT THE TAINTER BOOK SAYS

(1) Kando(2013): A summary of the Tainter Hypothesis by fellow blogger Professor Emeritus Tom Kando. LINK: https://european-americanblog.blogspot.com/2013/12/joseph-tainter-collapse-of-complex_10.html : (Edited and abbreviated). The consensus today is that it is possible to overcome the limits to increasing complexity of civilization through technological innovation but environmentalism disagrees. Tainter compares and contrast these two views of sustainability. Jared Diamond argues that staying the present course will result in collapse, due to scarcity of environmental resources. On the other side are the technological optimists, who reject Malthusianism and other doomsday scenarios where innovation is the key. As long as Research and Development are funded sufficiently, progress will continue. Tainter says that innovation is subject to the laws of complexity and the law of diminishing returns. This pattern is seen in Military and Medical research. It is a pattern of diminishing returns. Recently, Tainter analyzed five million patents to assess the long-term rate of productivity and innovation and found an increase in the size of patenting teams, an increase in research complexity, and a decline in per person productivity. Innovation productivity has also declined in bio-medical research, in energy, in solar and wind technology, in information technology and in nano-technology. The productivity of all scientific research is declining. According to Tainter, in the next 10 to 30 years (from 1988) American technological civilization will run into these traps: Funding the retirement of the baby boomers, The rise of health care costs, The decaying infrastructure, The environmental crisis, The energy crisis, High military costs, Increasing cost of technological and scientific innovation. The problem is cumulative complexity that undermines sustainability. Tainter says that the cumulative cost of complexity will destroys us but he does not advocate steady state because full employment for a growing population requires economic growth. Here are some comments from the audience after Tainter’s lecture: (1) Does Tainter know of societies which had survived the challenge of collapse caused by complexity? (2) Are there any societies which saw the light in time and survived? (Answer: The Byzantine Empire). (3): What about the sustainability of Australian aborigines, American Indians and other pre-industrial societies that are still with us today? Tom Kando (2013) concludes that “Tainter’s analysis is flawless. He is correct in calling for a conversation about our future, a conversation which we are NOT having“.

PROFESSOR EMERITUS, TOM KANDO

RELATED WORKS WITH REGARD TO Tainter, Joseph. The collapse of complex societies. Cambridge university press, 1988. BOOK.

(1) GREEN PLANET BLUES (2014): 27. BOOK REVIEW by Michael Bassey, Professor Emeritus Nottingham Trent University 2015: In 1972 The Limits to Growth report from the Club of Rome and reports of the UN Conference on the Human Environment held in Stockholm alerted many to the future dangers facing Planet Earth. The Book explains why documents like these caught the public imagination and conscience but today those concerned about climate change are frustrated. Global policies develop slowly in relation to the scale of problems. Although many political leaders around the world express concern about global warming and environmental degradation, the political will to take effective action is lacking. In the Global North, civil society has concentrated on climate change exclusively as an environmental issue and has focused on scientific and technical solutions such as emission controls and carbon credits. In the Global South, climate change has emerged primarily as a sustainable development issue, whose solutions are seen as inseparable from larger issues of poverty, trade and globalization. Consider what the development of plastics has done. The North Pacific Gyre is a dead zone and the Great Pacific Garbage Patch, where jellyfish ingest tiny plastic pellets in a floating graveyard of plastic at least twice the size of the US state of Texas. So what action should governments take? We need for international co-operation. Maybe the challenge of global environmental governance is to fill the ‘anarchic’ space of an ungoverned world system with laws and rules that can change environmentally destructive behaviour or maybe it is to reform or transform deeply imbedded political-economic practices that already govern the world system: trade, foreign investment, development assistance, multinational corporate activity. Bottom line, the challenge of achieving international co-operation is immense. Is this a task for the United Nations? The UN says climate change is real, and it is accelerating in a dangerous manner… It is a threat to international peace and security, yet deniers disagree. The UN Secretary-General says millions of people are in danger of going short of food and water. Climate refugees are re-shaping the human geography of the planet, a trend that will only increase as deserts advance, forests are felled and sea-levels rise. Mega-crises may well become the new norm. Free-trade politics have taken a heavy toll on the environment. The U.N. has documented growing problems with air, soil and water contamination, the result of urbanization and the modernization of agriculture. Sustainability and the UN’s SDG initiative is seen as a potentially effective response to global environmental problems. We must seek justice for the poor of the world. We need to “re-imagine” our unbalanced global economy with policies for the world’s poorest and reduce the damage done by consumer goods on vulnerable ecosystems. “Environmental degradation is everyone’s problem, but it’s especially a problem for the poor. Their position is precarious, so when things go wrong, whether it’s pollution or rising sea levels they are less able to respond. Inequality is a fundamental consideration in environmental policies. Awareness of the degradation of our planet and the need for urgent international action should be the top priority of us all. As Europe, the US and the emerging economies of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa continue to promote development models that rely on economic growth driven by over-consumption. How much longer can human society can continue on this path?

Beyond Collapse: Archaeological Perspectives on Resilience, Revitalization,  and Transformation in Complex Societies (Visiting Scholar Conference ...  Investigations Occasional Paper No. 42): Faulseit, Ronald K., Anderson, J.  Heath, Conlee, Christina ...
Ronald "Sonny" Faulseit | Pierce College - Academia.edu

(2): THE RESILIENCE HYPOTHESIS OF RONALD FAULSEIT

Faulseit, Ronald K., ed. Beyond collapse: Archaeological perspectives on resilience, revitalization, and transformation in complex societies. SIU Press, 2016. RESEARCHGATE LINK: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/289378675_Beyond_Collapse_Archaeological_Perspectives_on_Resilience_Revitalization_and_Transformation_in_Complex_Societies

ABSTRACT: With regard to the Maya. The Romans. The great dynasties of ancient China, it is generally believed that these once mighty empires eventually crumbled and disappeared. A recent trend in archaeology, however, focusing on what happened during and after the decline of once powerful societies has found social resilience and transformation rather than collapse. In Beyond Collapse: Archaeological Perspectives on Resilience, Revitalization, and Transformation in Complex Societies, editor Ronald K. Faulseit gathers scholars with diverse theoretical perspectives to present innovative approaches to understanding the decline and reorganization of complex societies in the form of a collection of essays. Essays in the book are arranged into five sections. The first section addresses previous research on the subject of collapse and reorganization as well as recent and historic theoretical trends. In the second section, contributors look at collapse and resilience through the concepts of collective action, eventful archaeology, and resilience theory. The third section introduces critical analyses of the effectiveness of resilience theory as a heuristic tool for modeling the phenomena of collapse and resilience. In the fourth section, contributors examine long-term adaptive strategies employed by prehistoric societies to cope with stresses. Essays in the fifth section make connections to contemporary research on post-decline societies in a variety of time periods and geographic locations. Contributors consider collapse and reorganization not as unrelated phenomena but as integral components in the evolution of complex societies. Using archaeological data to interpret how ancient civilizations responded to various stresses—including environmental change, warfare, and the fragmentation of political institutions—contributors discuss not only what leads societies to collapse but also why some societies are resilient and others are not, as well as how societies reorganize after collapse. The implications of the fate of these societies for modern nations cannot be underestimated. Putting in context issues we face today, such as climate change, lack of social diversity, and the failure of modern states, Beyond Collapse is an essential volume for readers interested in human-environment interaction and in the collapse—and subsequent reorganization—of human societies.

Middleton, Guy D. “The show must go on: collapse, resilience, and transformation in 21st-century archaeology.” Reviews in Anthropology 46.2-3 (2017): 78-105. Collapse is a theme addressed by specialists from many disciplines, from environmental and sustainability studies to popular culture and the hard sciences, as well as by archaeologists and historians. This review focuses on three recent books about past collapses and sets them in the context of collapse studies. The new contributions build on the growing body of collapse theory and increasing data on individual case studies, but each takes a new direction, adding to the ongoing debates about collapse, resilience, and transformation. While taking us forward, it is apparent that issues of definition and terminology are still an issue in collapse studies. The review also demonstrates that collapse is an area of lively research that can be regarded as a recognizable subfield of archaeological and historical research that also crosses over into other disciplines. Footnote: My ideas on the recent developments in collapse studies were partly worked out in preparation for a lecture entitled “Understanding Collapse,” one of a series of lectures on collapse that I gave at Charles University, Prague (April 24–26, 2017).

Why Did the Mayan Civilization Collapse? A New Study Points to  Deforestation and Climate Change | Science | Smithsonian Magazine
What Makes a Civilization Collapse?
Is Civilization on the Verge of Collapse? | Events

CRITICAL COMMENTARY

(1) In a related post we interpret the repeated claims by climate activists, particularly Sir David Attenborough that the current global warming period of the Holocene will cause a Collapse of Civilization. LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2018/08/16/collapse/ , There we describe the Late Bronze Age collapse (LBAC) as a collapse of civilization caused by climate change and not complexity that had resulted in extended droughts at centennial time scales over a significant global extent. The collapse involved a large number of civilizations at different levels of complexity. The Archaeological data show that a long gap of more than a 200 years of a Dark Age followed the LBAC with no evidence of the great LBA civilization and global economy until the Early Iron Age-1 when an entirely new kind of global economy grew from the ashes of the LBAC. Although other theories of the LBAC have been proposed, the climate change theory predominates and is now the generally accepted theory of the LBAC.

(2) It is noted that significant uncertainties in the archaeological record and its radiocarbon dating facilitate a number of different theories of the LBAC to coexist although climate change is now the generally accepted theory. We also note in that post that religions prior to the LBAC do not contain a Judgement Day “end of the world” of any kind. However, religions that got started in the Early Iron Age right after the Dark Ages of the LBAC do contain a catastrophic end of the world of some kind as for example in Matthew 24 below.

MATTHEW24 IN REVELATIONS: Collapse of Civilization: When the disciples came up to Jesus to call his attention to its buildings. “Do you see all these things? Truly I tell you, not one stone here will be left on another; every one will be thrown down. Nation will rise against nation, and kingdom against kingdom. There will be famines and earthquakes in various places and then the end will come. Then let those who are in Judea flee to the mountains. Let no one on the housetop go down to take anything out of the house. Let no one in the field go back to get their cloak. How dreadful it will be in those days for pregnant women and nursing mothers! Pray that your flight will not take place in winter or on the Sabbath. For then there will be great distress, unequaled from the beginning of the world until now and never to be equaled again.Immediately after the distress of those days the sun will be darkened, and the moon will not give its light the stars will fall from the sky and the heavenly bodies will be shaken.

(3) It is likely that the existence of doomology in our time in the form of an obsession with collapse of civilization similar to the LBAC, but framed in terms of current events such as the industrial economy, climate change, population growth, or in Tainter’s complexity model, ultimately derive from a distant genetic memory of the LBAC. It may be that modern iron age humans carry a doomsday gene that creates the genetic memory of the LBAC and our inner forecast of our distant future therefore tends to be tainted and painted with this horrific memory of the collapse of civilization.

minoan5
Doomster Paul Ehrlich Unrepentant: “My language would be even more  apocalyptic today.” – Reason.com
Sir David Attenborough joins Instagram to warn 'the world is in trouble' -  BBC News
Joseph Tainter | GenevaGlobal

(4) In a related post {LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/10/04/james-burke-the-science-guy/ } science historian James Burke traces the history of human civilization through the Holocene from its inception in the Holocene Climate Optimum {LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2018/08/20/the-holocene-optimum-period-a-bibliography/ } through the cycles of warming and cooling of the Holocene {LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2019/06/11/chaoticholocene/ } to the current warm period to show that in the prior ten Holocene temperature cycles climate change determined human activity but that in the current warm period that causation has been reversed such that human activity causes climate change. In the presentation both the rise and the collapse of human civilizations in the Holocene are attributed to climate change and not to complexity.

(5) The two relevant features of the James Burke presentation described above are that (1) the collapse of civilization was caused by climate change and not by complexity and (2) through all those rise and fall of human civilizations, each subsequent civilization is greater with humans much better off than they were in the prior civilization. This means that in the rise and fall of human civilization seen in the history of the Holocene described by James Burke, each collapse of civilization leads to a greater civilization with greater complexity than the one that collapsed. In the overall trend across the eight or so civilization cycles we don’t see the flat stagnant cycle seen in textbooks (Chart#1) but a sequence in which the human condition goes through remarkable improvement and gains from one civilization cycle to the next (Chart#3).

(6) Using a stock market analogy, we show below a volatile market with no long term gains in CHART#2. This market represents the zero net gain rise and fall cycle of civilization subsumed in the Tainter and Ehrlich complexity model of the history of rise and the fall of civilization. However, this is not what has happened over the 8,000 years of Holocene civilization dynamics. There have been significant long term gains in human civilization over the full span of the Holocene. The corresponding stock market analogy is shown in CHART#3.

(7) CONCLUSION: In the volatility model, the rise and fall of civilization can be understood simply as the volatile mechanism in the long term advance of humans on earth. It is true that the volatility has been painful in the collapse leg of the cycle and the assumption is that we would be better off without the volatility. Yet, the resilience model implies a recovery that is stronger than the fall. Therefore, the volatility can be understood as the mechanism of our long term gains over the full span of the history of human civilization. We don’t start over from ground zero but from a resilience advantage described by Faulseit. CHART-1 AND CHART-2 BELOW SHOW THE ASSUMED VERSION OF THESE CYCLES BY TAINTER AND EHRLICH. CHART-3 SHOWS WHAT REALLY HAPPENED.

The Rise & Fall of Empires, Nations, & City States | Armstrong Economics
CHART#1: TEXTBOOK CHART OF THE RISE AND FALL OF CIVILIZATIONS

What Is the Best Measure of Stock Price Volatility?
CHART#2: STOCK MARKET ANALOGY: VOLATILITY WITH NO LONG TERM GAIN

The Most Volatile Stocks With Volume For Short-Term Traders
CHART#3: STOCK MARKET ANALOGY: VOLATILITY WITH LONG TERM GAINS

Ronald "Sonny" Faulseit | Pierce College - Academia.edu

Faulseit, Ronald K., ed. Beyond collapse: Archaeological perspectives on resilience, revitalization, and transformation in complex societies.

Civilization® VI – The Official Site | News | ANNOUNCING CIVILIZATION VI:  RISE AND FALL

CLIMATE CHANGE

Effects | Facts – Climate Change: Vital Signs of the Planet

THIS POST IS A GRAPHICAL PRESENTATION OF CARBON FOOTPRINTS FOR SELECTED COUNTRIES IN METRIC TONS OF CO2 PER CAPITA

DATA PROVIDED BY THE WORLD BANK.

World Bank - Wikipedia

NEW ZEALAND: 7.8 TONS/PER CAPITA

Footprints Computer Icons, footprints, miscellaneous, text png | PNGEgg
Dunedin been named as the most beautiful city. And it's not because of the  only's castles in the country! Dunedin has been crowned New Zealand's most  beautiful city for 2018 at the

CENTRAL AFRICA REPUBLIC: 0.1 TONS PER CAPITA

The Environmental Footprint Family - bringing clarity to the crowded field  of footprint studies | EU Science Hub
62% of the country lives in poverty | Central african, Country life, Photo

IRELAND: 8.1 TONS PER CAPITA

Footprints Computer Icons, footprints, miscellaneous, text png | PNGEgg
Best and worst things about living in Dublin

DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF THE CONGO 0.1 TONS PER CAPITA

The Environmental Footprint Family - bringing clarity to the crowded field  of footprint studies | EU Science Hub
Muslims of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC)

NORWAY 8.8 TONS PER CAPITA

Footprints Computer Icons, footprints, miscellaneous, text png | PNGEgg
15 Best Cities to Visit in Norway (with Map & Photos) - Touropia

SUDAN 0.4 TONS PER CAPITA

The Environmental Footprint Family - bringing clarity to the crowded field  of footprint studies | EU Science Hub
Figures of the week: Fragility and extreme poverty

GERMANY 9.6 TONS PER CAPITA

Footprints Computer Icons, footprints, miscellaneous, text png | PNGEgg
Berlin 2019 - LONGINES GLOBAL CHAMPIONS TOUR

BANGLADESH: 0.5 TONS PER CAPITA

The Environmental Footprint Family - bringing clarity to the crowded field  of footprint studies | EU Science Hub

The Ultimate Guide to Backpacking in Bangladesh - Lost With Purpose

UNITED STATES OF AMERICA: 16.3 TONS PER CAPITA

Footprints Computer Icons, footprints, miscellaneous, text png | PNGEgg
Prettiest cities in the US - Insider

CAMBODIA: 0.6 TONS PER CAPITA

The Environmental Footprint Family - bringing clarity to the crowded field  of footprint studies | EU Science Hub
Made in Cambodia: How women in poverty are supplying America's market for  hair

CONCLUSION

CLIMATE CHANGE IS A RICH MAN’S GAME: YOU HAVE TO GET RICH FIRST BEFORE YOU CAN WORRY ABOUT BEING RICH

investment ideas: How fear destroys your wealth when the market is in  turmoil - The Economic Times
Fear vs greed: Stock market crash is a chance for Indian investors to seek  considered wisdom amid confusion - Business News , Firstpost

CLIMATE CHANGE

Effects | Facts – Climate Change: Vital Signs of the Planet

The Creation of Adam - Wikipedia
Creation, Adam, and Cain - A Beka Flash-A-Cards | Adam and eve, Bible  pictures, Bible art
What if Adam and Eve didn't sin? - Quora
UnitingChurch-TurkishMosque

THIS POST IS A CRITICAL EXAMINATION OF THE CLOSE LINK BETWEEN CLIMATE CHANGE SCIENCE AND RELIGION SEEN IN CLIMATE ACTIVISM BY RELIGIOUS LEADERS WITH THE LAUDATO SI ENCYCLICAL OF THE POPE SERVING AS THE BASIS.

BELOW ARE THREE SUCH PRESENTATIONS WITH SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG THEM ALTHOUGH ALL THREE ARE LINKED WITH THE LAUDATO SI ENCYCLICAL OF POPE FRANCIS.

AT THE END OF THESE PRESENTATIONS, WE PROVIDE A CRITICAL REVIEW

(#1) REVERAND FLETCHER HARPER, EPISCOPAL PRIEST, THE CHURCH OF ENGLAND

AND A WEBSITE CALLED CENTRE FOR CLIMATE SAFETY: LINK: https://climatesafety.info/what-we-all-can-do/what-religious-leaders-and-communities-can-do/

Church of England commits to net-zero emissions by 2030

The website provides guidelines to religious leaders on what they can do forclimate safety“. It says “The world’s best climate experts have released the most comprehensive report on climate change ever made. The conclusions are sobering. Our climate is changing at a disastrous rate. Our leaders need to hear a message of hope, to step outside politics as usual and realise that people around the world are praying for them to be bold and do what is right.”

The website is operated by Reverand Fletcher Harper of the Church of England. His personal website is called GREENFAITH.ORG where we find this; “Fletcher is an Episcopal priest and, since 2002, GreenFaith’s Executive Director. Under his leadership, GreenFaith has developed innovative programs linking religious belief and practice to the environment.

An award-winning spiritual writer and nationally-recognized preacher on the environment, he has led multi-faith organizing for the 2014 and 2017 Peoples Climate Marches, played a lead role in the faith-based fossil fuel divestment movement, and coordinated the development of GreenFaith’s international work. He is author of GreenFaith – Mobilizing God’s People to Save the Earth.”

(#2) The LAUDATO SI ENCYCLICAL OF POPE FRANCIS

Download "Laudato Si" | Pope Francis' Encyclical on Environment and Climate  Change
Earth Day - 10 Points from Laudato Si - Congregation of the Mission
11 Things to Know Before Visiting the Vatican - 2020 Vatican City Guide
The Flag of the Vatican City

Laudato Si‘ represented a seminal integration of the environment and humanity (the title is from the first words of the encyclical, “Praise be to you my Lord”). … The encyclical broadly accepts the scientific consensus that climate change is principally a man-made phenomenon and that it can and must be undone by man by taking the climate action of moving from fossil fuels to renewables. Pope Francis criticized world governments for their “very weak” response to the climate crisis. In June, he issued guidance for carrying out his climate encyclical that included calling on Catholics to divest themselves of investments in fossil fuel companies. With this new sense of urgency, the Vatican launched a year-long program of Laudato Si’ activities and put in place a new, seven-year call to action. The encyclical broadly accepts the scientific consensus that climate change is principally a man-made phenomenon. Without prompt global action to reduce carbon dioxide emissions and slow the planet’s warming, it says, there will be profound environmental, social, political and economic consequences. The pope clearly identifies the use of fossil fuels as a cause of climate change.

Yale University scholar Mary Evelyn Tucker is co-director of the Yale Forum on Religion and Ecology. It describes the pope’s commitment on climate as “unprecedented,” and says it represents a “structural change” in how the world is confronting climate change and other environmental issues, such as pollution. Science and policy have led the response to environmental concerns for decades, she said, but the pope has interjected a moral force linking people with their environment. It’s not just social justice issues, and not just environmental issues, Tucker said. “It’s the cry of the Earth and the cry of the poor, all coming together in various movements. The encyclical names this ‘integral ecology’.” The global coronavirus pandemic, she added, “is making the linkages even more clear. You cannot have healthy people on a sick planet.

A Message for the Planet
To the world’s 1.2 billion Catholics—including about 70 million in the United States—a papal encyclical is a pastoral letter that carries a special gravitas. But with Laudato Si’, the pope intended it to reach everyone on the planet. The encyclical stands on millennia of Catholic teachings, starting with the Genesis story,” said Anna Wagner, an engagement director with the five-year-old Global Catholic Climate Movement, which works with the Vatican on climate matters. It takes ancient lessons of our faith and expresses them in a new way. Upon the encyclical’s release in June, 2015, the pope took to Twitter to declare, bluntly: “The earth, our home, is beginning to look more and more like an immense pile of filth. At the time, scientists were warning that global warming, rising seas, and supercharged weather were no longer a distant threat. Five years later, scientists have documented how climate change is intensifying droughts, wildfires and hurricanes, and have said that carbon emissions need to drop 45 percent by 2030 if the world is to have a chance at fending off the worst effects of climate change.

In Laudato Si’, Pope Francis blended the latest science on climate and the loss of biological diversity with a heavy dose of economics, Catholic teaching and a call to treat all humans with dignity and respect. “Climate change is a global problem with grave implications,” he wrote, especially for the poor in developing nations. Rich countries are hurting poor countries, Francis wrote, calling for an economic system with “more balanced levels of production, a better distribution of wealth, concern for the environment and the rights of future generations.”

The encyclical was seen in some camps as an attack on capitalism, and it made some Catholic Republican leaders squirm, like former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, who in 2015 observed that the pope “is not a scientist.” The climate denier Heartland Institute accused Francis of being misled by false prophets or the “agenda-driven bureaucrats at the United Nations.” Five years later, Bill McKibben, a Methodist open about his own Christian faith, described the encyclical as among the most important documents of our time. McKibben says that the encyclical understands the climate crisis in a much larger sense in that the environmental movement needs to be the environmental justice movement. It’s important, as well, McKibben said, because of the Pope’s reach as a global faith leader and arguably the most recognizable figure in the world.

The World’s Response to Laudato Si has been that it convinced many that climate change is a Source of Grave Concern. Laudato Si’ created a global buzz before and after it was published. The National Catholic Reporter, a Kansas City-based independent Catholic news outlet with dedicated climate coverage, found examples around the world in which individual Catholics, parishes and institutions had responded to Laudato Si’. As a response to the Laudato Si, Bishops in the Philippines are fighting coal-fired power plants. American Catholic nuns and their partners in Ghana launched a plastic recycling program to reduce waste and increase employment. The U.S. Conference of Bishops has opposed the Trump administration and its rollback or repeals of key environmental regulations.

The Global Catholic Climate Movement has grown to encompass 900 Catholic organizations in dozens of countries. The organization has spearheaded some of Catholicism’s most visible climate actions, from faith-based youth climate strikes to persuading a growing number of Catholic institutions to pull their investments in fossil fuel companies. The urgency of this ecological conversion seems not to have been grasped by international politics, where the response to the problems raised by global climate change remains very weak. This weakness is a source of grave concern. The Pope met with 180 diplomats at the Vatican to address this issue. At the same time he praised the rising voices of young people demanding urgent action on climate change.

After that meeting, the Vatican announced the Laudato Si’ Action Platform.” It asks Catholics and Catholic institutions to achieve sustainability within seven years. The Vatican itself continues to gather advice from high-level scientists and other experts. The Vatican is pulling expertise from all over the world. This is a huge commitment.

The Catholic Divestment Program. The Vatican’s full support for divestment of fossil fuel companies is a big deal, since the Church is a serious financial force. Catholic institutions are divesting from fossil fuel companies since Laudato Si’. This includes the University of Dayton and Georgetown University. Divestment activist McKibben and his group 350.org, plays an important role in the divestment campaign. More than 1,200 institutions pledged to divest $14 trillion from fossil fuels, including the Episcopal church, the Church of England, and the World Council of Churches. This is the first-ever endorsement of a fossil fuel divestment campaign to come from the Vatican. It is the largest-ever divestment by faith institutions wherein 42 institutions in 14 countries announced their commitment to drop fossil fuels from their investment portfolio.

Engaging Conservative Catholics: The pope’s renewed climate push this year comes as an American presidential election with widely divergent views on climate change. President Donald Trump has taken the country in the opposite direction from the Vatican, working to withdraw the United States from the 2015 Paris climate agreement, a global action to fight climate change. Democratic challenger and former Vice President Joe Biden, a Catholic, has embraced the encyclical, as well as a $2 trillion clean jobs program to achieve net-zero carbon emissions by 2050. For some Catholics, Trump’s fossil-fuel agenda has provided motivation to act on their own, said Dan Misleh, executive director of Catholic Climate Covenant, that works to incorporate the encyclical’s message in education and worship.

A statement from Dan Misleh: The encyclical has inspired climate action across the country. The CATHOLIC CLIMATE COVENANT has Creation Care Teams to lead community action. It has started Catholic Energies, focused on solar power and energy efficiency and it is encouraging advocacy in state capitals and Washington, D.C.

The Atlanta climate action plan has been or is being used as a point of reference for climate plans at the Archdiocese of Washington, D.C., where Archbishop Gregory now serves, and at dioceses in Boston, Columbus, Minneapolis, San Diego and elsewhere. But some dioceses and parishes are Republican and these conservatives are climate deniers and not willing to embrace the climate fight. It turns out that Catholics are evenly split between Republicans and Democrats. Catholic Laudato Si activists are deeply concerned about how to engage these Catholic conservatives.

Encyclical activists are trying to convince their conservative parishioners that all Pope Francis is asking for is a future in which ‘all people can prosper personally and economically in harmony with the gifts God has given us in nature.

IN THE END, ALL CATHOLICS, REGARDLESS OF POLITICS, MUST ANSWER THIS SIMPLE QUESTION ABOUT CLIMATE CHANGE; WHAT DOES OUR FAITH CALL US TO DO?

Laudato si and the Ecological Debt
Earth Day - 10 Points from Laudato Si - Congregation of the Mission
Download "Laudato Si" | Pope Francis' Encyclical on Environment and Climate  Change

(#3)BISHOP MCELROY OF SAN DIEGO, CALIFORNIA

Bishop McElroy – The Roman Catholic Diocese of San Diego
Diocese of San Diego - Horowitz Law

Bishop McElroy on Laudato Si’: 2019: LINK: https://www.ncronline.org/news/earthbeat/bishop-mcelroy-laudato-si-urgent-summons-american-people

THIS IS BISHOP MCELROY’S KEYNOTE ADDRESS AT THE LAUDATO SI CONFERENCE AT CREIGHTON UNIVERSITY IN OMAHA NEBRASKA.

In his epic poem, “Paradise Lost,” John Milton captured the majestic drama of the fall and rise of humanity amidst the never failing love and power of God’s presence in the world. When Satan approaches the Garden of Eden, to bring down Adam and Eve who had become the focus of God’s love and tender care. Satan is stunned and overwhelmed by the sheer beauty of Paradise. It is the Paradise that the Lord has created for the humans.

The beauty of Paradise reminds Satan only of his alienation from the Creator and so he despises the majesty of Creation. Satan cries out in pain {O Thou, that with surpassing glory crowned, to thee I call, But with not with friendly voice, to tell the sun how I hate thy beams, That bring to my remembrance from what state I fell, how glorious once above thy sphere till pride and ambition threw me down}. The lament of Satan is forged by his estrangement from the magnificence of God’s creation which Satan had deformed. {as we now deform God’s creation with fossil fuel emissions}. For us as men and women of the twenty-first century, this very same estrangement reverberates through our relationship with the earth that is our common home. Perceiving in the recesses of our soul the magnificence of the world that God has created for the entire human family, we yet allow selfishness, denial, the thirst for control, radical individualism and the rejection of God to forge a culture that progressively destroys the beauty and sustainability of the world which is our common home. And in that contradiction we are estranged from the created order which God bestowed upon the human family as the setting of our pilgrimage on this earth.

OUR ESTRANGEMENT FROM THE PLANET

Laudato Si’ both unmasks this estrangement and points to the pathway forward for us to move from alienation toward healing and the renewal of the earth. The encyclical is a call to arms for those who would rescue our bruised planet from the forces that deplete and destroy it. But Laudato Si’ is so much more than this in its delineation of an integral human ecology. In this context, Laudato Si emphasizes that the illnesses that plague our world are interrelated. Therefore, progress in any one dimension requires attending to the wholeness of the human person and the human family and the wholeness of our planet earth.

The USA is in a perilous moment in our history and it is this urgency where Laudato Si’ directly applies. We stand, deeply estranged from one another, seething in divisions and unwilling to reconcile. We are the most powerful nation in the history of the earth, yet have rejected the only realistic pathways that have emerged to heal our broken planet. When Europeans came to the New World, they were often drawn by a vision of a New Paradise in which the raw beauty of the original creation was untouched. Now the earth calls out to us in agony, and we remain blind to the harm that we are inflicting more deeply with every passing year. Laudato Si’ is a call to reforge the bonds of solidarity that have been at the core of every advance that we have made as a people. It is a call to recognize the profound economic inequality that cripples us as a society and powers the engines of consumerism and technological recklessness that separate us from our planet, our brothers and sisters in the human family, and most piercingly of all, from the well-being of the generations who will come after us.

For us to heal the estrangement which imperils us as a nation and as a world, we must unmask the various levels of alienation that underlie it, and understand that only an integrated prism of analysis is capable of pointing to the profound healing that we must begin in these days. We are the most powerful nation in the history of the earth, yet have rejected the only realistic pathways that have emerged to heal our broken planet.

OUR ESTRANGEMENT FROM GOD

Pope Francis notes in Laudato Si’ the identity of the created order: “As Christians, we are also called to accept the world as a sacrament of communion, as a way of sharing with God and our fellow humans. The divine and the human are connected because they meet in the seamless garment of God’s creation. The only possible stance of our humanity in the face of such divine love is that of awe and gratitude. And yet in the present moment of human history, our response to God’s gift of the created order is on so many levels to embrace a worldview that is forgetful of God. Laudato Si’ outlines the nature of this forgetfulness which leads ineluctably to regarding creation not as gift to all, but as the possession of specific men and women and societies who have a right to exploit it for their private purposes. Pope Francis says that the best way to put an end to absolute dominion over the earth by humans is to remember that only the Father creates and He alone owns the world. In the absence of this wisdom, humans will try to impose their own laws and interests on reality. This estrangement from God leads to the denial of a universal destination for material goods. All material goods flow ultimately from the act of God in creation. The estrangement from God the Creator leads to the refusal to recognize that the whole of the human family is one because we share one Father and one destiny. Estrangement from the Creator leads to the acquisitive and dominating spirit in humans.

OUR ESTRANGEMENT FROM NATURE

Advances in science, technology, and inventions have served humans well but they have weakened the connection among humans and the connection of humans with nature. The connections which we have as human beings with one another and with nature have been weakened by technological advances and led to a widespread denial of the spiritual identity of nature. Laudato Si’ makes this denial clear by pointing our that the technological advantage leads to increasing levels of control over nature by way of technological mastery. Humans have long intervened in nature, but in the past the intervention had been in tune with nature. The technological paradigm provides the opportunity for humans to be manipulative in their use of nature for unnatural gains. What the Laudato Si tell us is to seek a spiritual relationship with nature, one that is respectful and loving. In the Laudato Si’, we read that the creatures of nature are our sisters united with us by affection but there is a conflict between the technological paradigm and the affective bonds between humans and nature. We all experience moments of spiritual and moral bonds with nature and with the creation that blesses our world. But those moments are overwhelmed by our technological control that underlays our society and draws us to increasingly treat nature in solely manipulative and extractive ways. This is how we have become estranged from nature, unable to appreciate nature as God’s creation. We find it impossible to think of the sun and the moon as brother and sister because we don’t see the spiritual identity of nature. Sadly, we treat nature as an object to be manipulated and used.

OUR ESTRANGEMENT FROM TRUTH

The Laudato Si’ says that our earth is under attack by economic and extractive forces that are destroying the common home we share with nature with carbon dioxide pollution, destruction of ecosystems, the social and political effects of climate change, and the destruction of biodiversity. These scientifically-informed conclusions are stark and chilling. Some of these issues are complex but the reality is that economic interests and pseudo-science are being deployed on a systematic basis to hide the dangers to our common home and protect the very forces that are ravaging our air, our water, and human life itself. (A reference to climate deniers? Trump?). Laudato Si unmasks this reality. Particularly here in the United States, we are estranged from the truth about the environment because we are becoming estranged from the very notion of truth itself. At this moment in our history as a nation, our political culture is submerged in a morass of conscious and repeated lies that wear down our collective culture of truth-seeking and substitutes for it a counterfeit culture rooted in the conclusion truth itself is only a vague illusion that cannot be realized in a complex world. Laudato Si unmasks the reality that particularly here in the United States, we are estranged from the truth about the environment because we are becoming estranged from the very notion of truth itself. Laudato Si’ repudiates this moral and intellectual surrender and affirms unequivocally that the consensus of human inquiry into the environmental degradation of our planet reveals a powerful tide of man-made decline in our climate, our water, our soil and biodiversity. We must put aside our estrangement from the truth to redeem our natural environment, just as we must put aside our estrangement from political truth to redeem our political culture.

How Pope Francis' Laudato Si Relates to City Planning - Father Alejandro  Crostwaithe | International Making Cities Livable
Bp. McElroy: Make Climate Change Top Priority

(#4) CRITICAL COMMENTARY

The Creation of Adam - Wikipedia
THE SPECIAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN GOD AND MAN
Creation, Adam, and Cain - A Beka Flash-A-Cards | Adam and eve, Bible  pictures, Bible art
ADAM AND EVE TAKING CARE OF NATURE
What if Adam and Eve didn't sin? - Quora
ADAM AND EVE AND THEIR DOMINION OVER NATURE

What we find in the text above is that the Laudato Si and its interpretation by Bishop McElroy and Reverend Harper, present a Biblical view of environmentalism and climate change activism derived from the Biblical principles as follows:

(1): Advances in science and technology by humans have weakened our connection with nature.

(2) This weakening led to denial of the spiritual identity of nature. Laudato Si’ makes this denial clear by pointing our that our technological advantage leads to increasing levels of control over nature by way of technological mastery.

(3) Technological advances provides the opportunity for humans to have a manipulative and extractive relationship with nature and derive unnatural gains from that relationship.

(4) Therefore we should seek an equal and spiritual relationship with nature that is respectful and loving. The creatures of nature are our brothers and sisters united with us by affection. These bonds have been corrupted and destroyed by the technological superiority of humans. We have all experienced moments of spiritual and moral bonds with nature and with the creation that blesses our world. That should be our only relationship with nature – not as the masters of nature but i terms of the common bond as God’s creations.

(5) This view provides the basis for environmentalism and for taking action against climate change as prescribed by climate science – for example, by ceasing the use of fossil fuels and moving to renewable energy sources that are kinder to and more respectful of nature. We are not the lords and masters of nature but just fellow creatures that are equal under the Creator who created us all.

(6) This view is 180 degrees at odds with the Biblical view in Genesis which says that humans have dominion over the beasts where the word beasts implies all of nature not including man. That God has a special relationship with man is deeply and profoundly expressed in all aspects of religion. For example, there is no heaven or hell for the beasts.

(7) That this view is now being denied by the clergy to pursue environmentalism in the form of climate activism is at odds with environmentalism itself because environmentalism is a human enterprise in which humans are the masters and caretakers of nature. The idea of human caused global warming and climate change and the management of climate by humans derives from this view in which humans are the managers of the planet and humans will determine the fate of the planet.

(8) The ultimate expression of environmentalism and the climate change movement is the Anthropocene. It is the expression that humans are now the primary geological force shaping the future of nature and the planet itself. This view of environmentalism firmly establishes the “Dominion” role of humans in environmentalism to the extent that humans have created their own geological epoch. Humans are now in charge of taking care of the planet and dialing in the right kind of climate for it and for the beasts. This aspect of environmentalism and climate change is described in related posts on this site linked below and explained by climate scientists and environmentalists in the videos below.

(9) LINKS TO RELATED POSTS ON THE ANTHROPOCENE:

LINK#1: https://tambonthongchai.com/?s=ANTHROPOCENE

LINK#2: https://tambonthongchai.com/2018/07/13/the-anthropocene-fallacy/

LINK#3: https://tambonthongchai.com/2010/05/16/171/

LINK#4: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/09/22/things-eco-nuts-worry-about/

LINK#5: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/05/20/praise-the-climate-science-and-save-the-planet/

LINK#6: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/03/15/noaas-ark/

(10) THE PETER SINGER INTERPRETATION OF GENESIS, PETER SINGER, PROFESSOR OF BIOETHICS AT PRINCETON UNIVERSITY HAS WRITTEN ON THIS ISSUE TO RE-INTERPRET DOMINION OVER THE BEASTS AS BEING KIND TO THE BEASTS. HE CONCLUDES THAT THEREFORE THE “DOMINION OVER THE BEASTS” OF GENESIS IS ACTUALLY GOD’S CALL TO ENVIRONMENTALISM AND THAT LAUDATO SI IS THE CLARIFICATION OF THIS BIBLICAL PUZZLE ON THE SIDE OF ENVIRONMENTALISM AND CLIMATE ACTION TO SAVE THE BEASTS FROM ARTIFICIAL CLIMATE CHANGE. LINK TO PETER SINGER: https://flaglerlive.com/81760/dominion-singer/#:~:text=Mainstream%20Christian%20thinking%20about%20animals,dominion%20over%20all%20the%20animals. Yet, the Dominion issue is not one of cruelty or kindness but one of power. To repeat, God’s special relationship with man is seen for example in things like heaven and hell and Adam and Eve as well as things like prophets and the rules of living in harmony in human societies as in “thou shalt not kill”. God’s entire attention is to humans and the Dominion clause of Genesis puts humans in charge of nature in the same way as that role is now envisioned by climate scientists as the Anthropocene.

The original and unbiased interpretation of Genesis is that humans are the managers of nature and this principle is the foundation of environmentalism to the point where the human managers of nature may intervene when nature is deemed too cruel by humans. This odd aspect of environmentalism, commonly known as the Bambi Principle, is explained by George Carlin in the video below.

What if Adam and Eve didn't sin? - Quora
The Creation of Adam - Wikipedia

Neil Young News: REVIEW: "WHAT'S THAT SOUND? Buffalo Springfield Box" by  Harvey Kubernik

THERE’S SOMETHING HAPPENING HERE.

WHAT IT IS AINT EXACTLY CLEAR.

IT’S NOT THE CLIMATE CHANGE.

IT’S NOT THE COVID.

IT’S A WHOLE DIFFERENT SOMETHING

WHERE IN THE TIME OF COVID, THOUSANDS GATHER

SHOULDER TO SHOULDER

Thailand protests: Thousands rally for third straight day despite  government ban - BBC News
In Pictures: Tensions high in Thailand as protests continue | Thailand | Al  Jazeera
Thailand protests: Riot police fire water cannon as protesters defy rally  ban - BBC News
Thai protests: Tens of thousands gather again in mass defiance of  government - BBC News
Thai Protesters Plan Rally While Evading Authorities - BNN Bloomberg

TRUMP VS AAAS SCIENTISTS | Thongchai Thailand

RELATED POSTS ON EVENT ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE:

LINK#1: https://tambonthongchai.com/2018/07/10/event-attribution-science-a-case-study/

LINK#2; https://tambonthongchai.com/2018/08/03/confirmationbias/

LINK#3: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/07/16/the-internal-variability-issue/

ABSTRACT

(1) Extreme weather event attribution post hoc is subject to confirmation bias and data selection bias. (2) The attribution of localized extreme weather events to AGW overlooks the Internal Climate Variability issue. (3) The attribution of selected tropical cyclones or tropical cyclone seasons in a single cyclone basin violates the climate science position on the tropical cyclone issue in Knutson etal 2010 that says that only trends in decadal means of tropical cyclone activity in all six cyclone basins over a sufficiently long time span of 30 years or more can be considered for such attribution. (4) The linked posts provided at the end of this document expose the activism and advocacy priority of climate science in pushing for climate action and the advocacy priority provides the motive for climate science to seek out ways to create fear of AGW with extreme weather events. (5) The use of high variance to compute large confidence intervals and then to use the end of the confidence interval that suits the need of creating the extreme weather fear for AGW is biased and a flawed understanding of uncertainty. Large confidence intervals mean we don’t really know. They don’t mean Oh look how high it could be. (6): A serious flaw in these analyses is circular reasoning, confirmation bias, and advocacy bias that looks for AGW as the only causation mechanism. Other variables are not studied. For example in forest fires forest management practices are overlooked with a single minded focus on heat and dryness attributed to AGW as the only cause of all things bad. (7): There is an assumption in these studies that all bad things that occur during a time of AGW must have been caused by AGW. This assumption is deeply flawed and deeply embedded in climate change impact studies. For example, the same Diffenbaugh that we cite in this work is also the author of the income inequality paper discussed in a related post: LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2019/04/25/inequality/. where he found growing inequality between rich countries and poor countries and since this trend is found during a time of climate change he concluded that it was caused by climate change and rationalized it in terms of hot poor countries and cool rich countries. As shown in the related post cited above, his findings are flawed because his methodology is flawed but this flawed methodology is common in climate science particularly so in extreme weather attribution. (8): Extreme weather event attribution to AGW by climate scientists is not credible in this light.

Extreme Realities: The Link Between Severe Weather, Climate Change, and Our  National Security | Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs

THE EXTREME WEATHER HYPOTHESIS OF CLIMATE SCIENCE

NBC NEWS AUGUST 2018: Aug. 19, 2018, 4:55 PM +07 / Updated Aug. 20, 2018, 3:27 AM +07By James Rainey. When the heat waves, droughts, wildfires and deluges come — as they seem to with increasing regularity these days — the question inevitably arises: Did climate change play a role? The answer scientists gave for years was that greenhouse gases created by humans likely contributed to extreme weather, but it was hard to definitively tie the warming atmosphere to any single episode. But that cautious approach, repeated in thousands of news reports for more than a decade, has been changing in recent months. Now, scientists say that they will increasingly be able to link extreme weather events to human-caused global warming and to make such determinations quickly, sometimes within days. So when a heat wave beset Northern Europe early this summer, bringing temperatures in Scandinavia into the 90s, a consortium of researchers operating under the name World Weather Attribution whipped together a series of computer simulations. Within three days, the scientists issued a finding that the hot spell had been made at least twice as likely because of human-driven climate change.

CARBON BRIEF: April 15. 2020. Mapped: How climate change affects extreme weather around the world. In the early 2000s, a new field of climate-science research emerged that began to explore the human fingerprint on extreme weather, such as floods, heatwaves, droughts and storms. Known as “extreme event attribution”, the field has gained momentum, not only in the science world, but also in the media and public imagination. These studies have the power to link the seemingly abstract concept of climate change with personal and tangible experiences of the weather. Scientists have published more than 300 peer-reviewed studies looking at weather extremes around the world, from wildfires in Alaska and hurricanes in the Caribbean to flooding in France and heatwaves in China. The result is mounting evidence that human activity is raising the risk of some types of extreme weather, especially those linked to heat. To track how the evidence on this fast-moving topic is stacking up, Carbon Brief has mapped every extreme-weather attribution study published to date. 69% of the 355 extreme weather events and trends included in the map were found to be made more likely or more severe by human-caused climate change and 9% of events or trends were made less likely or less severe by climate change. , meaning 78% of all events experienced some human impact. The remaining 22% of events and trends showed no discernible human influence or were inconclusive. Heatwaves account for 47% of such events, while droughts and heavy rainfall or floods each make up 15%. Of the 125 attribution studies that have looked at extreme heat around the world, 93% found that climate change made the event or trend more likely or more severe. For the 68 studies looking at rainfall or flooding, 54% found human activity had made the event more likely or more severe. For the 61 drought events studied, it’s 61%.

ENVIRONMENTAL DEFENSE FUND 2020: Extreme weather gets a boost from climate change. Scientists are detecting a stronger link between the planet’s warming and its changing weather patterns. Though it can be hard to pinpoint whether climate change intensified a particular weather event, the trajectory is clear — hotter heat waves, drier droughts, bigger storm surges and greater snowfall. Heat and drought. The dangerous effects of heat waves, including death, occur as a result of both temperature and humidity — especially if those conditions persist for more than two days. With temperature records being smashed month after month, year after year, it’s likely that human-caused global warming is making extreme heat events more frequent. Higher temperatures also boost evaporation, which dries out the soil in summer intensifying drought over many areas. As more evaporation leads to more moisture in the atmosphere, rainfall intensifies. We now know that the rainfall from Hurricane Harvey was 15 percent more intense and three times as likely to occur due to human-induced climate change. We expect to see a higher frequency of Category 4 and 5 storms as temperatures continue to rise. Clouds that can dump a lot of rain are more common in a warmer atmosphere. While scientists aren’t certain about whether climate change has led to more hurricanes, they are confident that rising sea levels are leading to higher storm surges and more floods. Around half of sea-level rise since 1900 comes from the expansion of warming oceans, triggered by human-caused global warming. The rest of the rise comes from melting glaciers and ice sheets. There is more moisture in a warmer atmosphere, which can lead to record snowfall. It may seem counterintuitive, but the increase in snowfall during winter storms may be linked to climate change. There is more moisture in the warmer atmosphere. So when the temperatures are below freezing, snowfall can break records. And scientists are studying a possible connection between a warming Arctic and cold spells in the eastern United States. The idea is that a rapidly warming Arctic can weaken the jet stream, allowing frigid polar air to travel farther south.

cars buried in snow

CBS NEWS: NOVEMBER 2015; Report: Human-caused climate change exacerbates extreme weather. SAN FRANCISCO– Government scientists said Thursday that 14 of last year’s extreme weather events were made worse by climate change caused by pollution including the 2014 California wildfires, and the cyclones in Hawaii. In a recent development, California continues to feel the effects of climate change. Most years the Dungeness crab harvest in California is bountiful and worth close to $60 million, but this year there may not be any harvest. High levels of toxic algae in the ocean make the crab too dangerous to eat. The widespread algae bloom is because of unusually high temperatures in the Pacific. It’s unbelievably warm. We have never had a warming event like this — the extent of it, the different contributing factors, and how this going to play out this season leads scientists to have huge concerns. Extreme heat events are one focus of the report on the impact of climate change around the world. The study found that in 2014, extreme heat waves, like one that gripped South Korea, were made worse by human-caused climate change which includes things such as car emissions, burning coal and methane gas. The report studied 28 extreme weather events around the world last year & 14 of those — including devastating floods in Australia and New Zealand — were found to be made worse in part by climate change. But the impact of human activity can be complex. In the United States, record snowfall in the Northeast and Midwest was not a result of climate change — rather, just cyclical weather patterns. However, the study says severe wildfires in California are becoming more likely because of global warming. Climate change is causing a lot of unfortunate, disastrous impacts around the world. This is the 4th year scientists have studied whether human activity is at least partially to blame for such things as heat waves, droughts, and wildfires. Over those years, more than half the extreme weather events studied have been linked to human-caused climate change.

STANFORD NEWS: 2020; Influence of global warming on extreme weather events has been underestimated. Analysis shows global warming is intensifying the occurrence of unprecedented hot spells and downpours faster than predicted by historical trends. New approaches for incorporating global warming into extreme weather analysis could improve global risk management. A common scientific approach of predicting the likelihood of future extreme weather events by analyzing how frequently they occurred in the past can lead to significant underestimates with significant consequences for people’s lives. A new analysis shows global warming is intensifying the occurrence of unprecedented hot spells and downpours faster than predicted by historical trends. Stanford Climate Scientist Noah Diffenbaugh found that predictions that relied only on historical observations underestimated by about half the actual number of extremely hot days in Europe and East Asia, and the number of extremely wet days in the U.S., Europe and East Asia. The paper, published March 18 in Science Advances, illustrates how even small increases in global warming can cause large upticks in the probability of extreme weather events, particularly heat waves and heavy rainfall. We are seeing year after year how the rising incidence of extreme events is causing significant impacts on people and ecosystems. One of the main challenges in becoming more resilient to these extremes is accurately predicting how the global warming that’s already happened has changed the odds of events that fall outside of our historical experience. We live in a changing world. For decades, engineers, land-use planners and risk managers have used historical weather observations from thermometers, rain gauges and satellites to calculate the probability of extreme events. Those calculations meant to inform projects ranging from housing developments to highways have traditionally relied on the assumption that the risk of extremes could be assessed using only historical observations. However, a warming world has made many extreme weather events more frequent, intense and widespread, a trend that is likely to intensify. Scientists trying to isolate the influence of human-caused climate change on the probability and/or severity of individual weather events have faced two major obstacles. There are relatively few such events in the historical record, making verification difficult, and global warming is changing the atmosphere and ocean in ways that may have already affected the odds of extreme weather conditions. Diffenbaugh is the Kara J Foundation professor at Stanford’s School of Earth, Energy & Environmental Sciences. He reviewed previous extreme weather event papers that he and his colleagues had published in recent years. He wondered if he could use the frequency of record-setting weather events from 2006 to 2017 to evaluate the predictions his group had made using data from 1961 to 2005. He found in some cases the actual increase in extreme events was much larger than what had been predicted. When he first looked at the results, he had this sinking feeling that his method for analyzing these extreme events could be all wrong. As it turned out, the method actually worked very well for the period that we had originally analyzed. It’s just that global warming has had a stronger effect over the last decade. He also found that climate models were able to more accurately predict the future occurrence of record-setting events. While acknowledging that climate models still contain important uncertainties, the study identifies the potential for new techniques that incorporate both historical observations and climate models to create more accurate, robust risk management tools.

MORE ABOUT PROFESSOR DIFFENBAUGH:LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/06/29/diffenbaugh-2017-extreme-weather-of-climate-change/

noah

NATIONAL ACDADEMIES 2020: Global warming is making some extreme weather events worse. As Earth’s climate has warmed, a new pattern of more frequent and more intense weather events has unfolded around the world. Scientists identify these extreme weather events based on the historical record of weather in a particular region. They consider extreme weather events to be those that produce unusually high or low levels of rain or snow, temperature, wind, or other effects. Typically, these events are considered extreme if they are unlike 90% or 95% of similar weather events that happened before in that same area. Global warming can contribute to the intensity of heat waves by increasing the chances of very hot days and nights. Warming air also boosts evaporation, which can worsen drought. More drought creates dry fields and forests that are prone to catching fire, and increasing temperatures mean a longer wildfire season. Global warming also increases water vapor in the atmosphere, which can lead to more frequent heavy rain and snowstorms. A warmer and more moist atmosphere over the oceans makes it likely that the strongest hurricanes will be more intense, produce more rainfall, and possibly be larger. In addition, global warming causes sea level to rise, which increases the amount of seawater, along with more rainfall, that is pushed on to shore during coastal storms. That seawater, along with more rainfall, can result in destructive flooding. While global warming is likely making hurricanes more intense, scientists don’t know yet if global warming is increasing the number of hurricanes each year. The effect of global warming on the frequency, intensity, size, and speed of hurricanes remains a subject of scientific research. Many factors contribute to any individual extreme weather event. Extreme weather events are influenced by many factors in addition to global warming. Daily and seasonal weather patterns and natural climate patterns such as El Niño or La Niña affect when and where extreme weather events take place. For example, many studies have linked an increase in wildfire activity to global warming. In addition, the risk of a fire could depend on past forest management, natural climate variability, human activities, and other factors, in addition to human-caused climate change. Determining how much climate change contributes to extreme weather events such as wildfires continues to be studied. New scientific approaches make it possible to determine how global warming affected individual extreme weather events. Even a decade ago, it was hard to link a specific weather event, such as a heat wave or an intense rainstorm, with climate changes happening on a global scale. However, climate scientists are getting better at making these kinds of connections, called extreme event attribution. These studies can’t say whether global warming caused a specific event—but they can look at whether the warming climate made an event more severe or more likely to happen. Scientists use computer models to simulate weather conditions with and without global warming and other contributing factors. By comparing different scenarios, they can identify how global warming has affected observed extreme weather events. For example, scientists completed extreme event attribution studies after Hurricane Harvey soaked Texas in 2017 with record-breaking rains of more than 60 inches in some places. They concluded that global warming worsened the flooding and made a Harvey-sized storm at least three times more likely. Understanding global warming’s impacts on extreme weather is important because it can help inform choices about managing risks. For example, if a community knows that increased rainfall from global warming has turned what was previously a “500-year flood” into a “100-year flood” (or more accurately: a flood that had a 1-in-500 chance of happening each year into a 1-in-100 chance of happening each year), it may make different choices about how to manage land, what and where people can build, or whether to build a floodwall.

SKEPTICAL SCIENCE: 2015: WHAT THE DENIERS SAY: There is growing empirical evidence that warming temperatures cause more intense hurricanes, heavier rainfalls and flooding, increased conditions for wildfires and dangerous heat waves. The 30 major droughts of the 20th century were likely natural in all respects; and, hence, they are “indicative of what could also happen in the future,” as Narisma et al. state in their concluding paragraph. And happen they will. Consequently, the next time a serious drought takes hold of some part of the world and the likes of Al Gore blame it on the “carbon footprints” of you and your family, ask them why just the opposite of what their hypothesis suggests actually occurred over the course of the 20th century, i.e., why, when the earth warmed – and at a rate and to a degree that they claim was unprecedented overthousands of years – the rate-of-occurrence of severe regional droughts actually declined.” (source: CO2 Science) WHAT THE SCIENCE SAYS; There are numerous examples of increased extreme weather frequency already being attributed to humans in the published peer-reviewed scientific literature. For example, Pall et al. (2011): “Here we present a multi-step, physically based ‘probabilistic event attribution’ framework showing that it is very likely that global anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions substantially increased the risk of flood occurrence in England and Wales in autumn 2000”. Min et al. (2011): “Here we show that human-induced increases in greenhouse gases have contributed to the observed intensification of heavy precipitation events found over approximately two-thirds of data-covered parts of Northern Hemisphere land areas.” Dai et al. (2011): “All the four forms of the PDSI show widespread drying over Africa, East and South Asia, and other areas from 1950 to 2008, and most of this drying is due to recent warming. The global percentage of dry areas has increased by about 1.74% (of global land area) per decade from 1950 to 2008.” Zwiers et al. (2011): “Therefore, it is concluded that the influence of anthropogenic forcing has had a detectable influence on extreme temperatures that have impacts on human society and natural systems at global and regional scales”. Coumou & Rahmstorf (2012): “Here, we review the evidence and argue that for some types of extreme — notably heatwaves, but also precipitation extremes — there is now strong evidence linking specific events or an increase in their numbers to the human influence on climate. For other types of extreme, such as storms, the available evidence is less conclusive, but based on observed trends and basic physical concepts it is nevertheless plausible to expect an increase.”. Hansen et al. (2012): “we can state, with a high degree of confidence, that extreme anomalies such as those in Texas and Oklahoma in 2011 and Moscow in 2010 were a consequence of global warming because their likelihood in the absence of global warming was exceedingly small.”Source: NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center GISS and Scientific Visualization Studio.

Like Hansen et al., Donat and Alexander (2012) found that global warming has made extreme heat waves more likely to occur. “…there is a 40% increase in more recent decades in the number of extreme temperatures defined by the warmest 5% of the 1951–1980 distribution.” Like Coumou & Rahmstorf, Otto et al. (2012) found that global warming contributed to the intensity of the extreme 2010 Russian heat wave, concluding there was “…a three-fold increase in the risk of the 2010 threshold being exceeded, supporting the assertion that the risk of the event occurring was mainly attributable to the external trend.” While it is very difficult to attribute individual weather events to global warming, we do know that climate change will ‘load the dice’ and result in more frequent extreme weather events. The IPCC Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation (SREX), also discusses the relationship between human-caused climate change and various types of extreme weather events. For example, the SREX says: “It is likely that anthropogenic influences have led to warming of extreme daily minimum and maximum temperatures at the global scale. There is medium confidence that anthropogenic influences have contributed to intensification of extreme precipitation at the global scale. It is likely that there has been an anthropogenic influence on increasing extreme coastal high water due to an increase in mean sea level.” and “Extreme weather and climate events, interacting with exposed and vulnerable human and natural systems, can lead to disasters.”

On drought, the SREX finds: “There is medium confidence that some regions of the world have experienced more intense and longer droughts, in particular in southern Europe and West Africa, but in some regions droughts have become less frequent, less intense, or shorter, for example, in central North America and northwestern Australia.” The SREX also has important conclusions regarding future drought changes: “There is medium confidence that droughts will intensify in the 21st century in some seasons and areas, due to reduced precipitation and/or increased evapotranspiration. This applies to regions including southern Europe and the Mediterranean region, central Europe, central North America, Central America and Mexico, northeast Brazil, and southern Africa.” This conclusion is supported by Dai (2010), for example: “Regions like the United States have avoided prolonged droughts during the last 50 years due to natural climate variations, but might see persistent droughts in the next 20–50 years

Research by Emanuel (2012), Grinsted et al. (2013), and Holland and Bruyère (2013) concluded that global warming has already led to more intense hurricanes. Elsner et al. (2008) found that: “With the exception of the South Pacific Ocean, all tropical cyclone basins show increases in the lifetime-maximum wind speeds of the strongest storms … Our results are qualitatively consistent with the hypothesis that as the seas warm, the ocean has more energy to convert to tropical cyclone wind. We have probably crossed the threshold where Katrina magnitude hurricane surges are more likely caused by global warming than not.”

Extreme Weather Obfuscation and Misdirection: More frequently we are seeing climate contrarians dispute that human-caused climate change is impacting extreme weather events, often through misdirection by focusing on economic losses associated with extreme weather, rather than the frequency of the events themselves. There is a silver lining in this cloud of obfuscation – climate contrarians appear to be retreating more and more away from the “it’s not happening” and “it’s not us” myths, toward the “it’s not bad” fallback position.

CENTER FOR CLIMATE AND ENERGY SOLUTIONS 2020;

One of the most visible consequences of a warming world is an increase in the intensity and frequency of extreme weather events. The National Climate Assessment finds that the number of heat waves, heavy downpours, and major hurricanes has increased in the United States, and the strength of these events has increased, too. A measure of the economic impact of extreme weather is the increasing number of billion-dollar disasters, which is shown below. The map shows all types of weather disasters, some of which are known to be influenced by climate change (floods, tropical storms) and some for which a climate influence is uncertain (tornadoes).

Billion-Dollar Extreme Weather Events, 2000-2020

Click on any circle to learn about one of the billion-dollar weather events, or any state to learn about billion-dollar droughts, between January 2000 and July 2020. Source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Climatic Data Center. The Top 10 costliest events are listed at the bottom of this page, along with a description of major U.S. droughts since 2000. NOAA calculates total, direct costs – both insured and uninsured – including physical damage to residential, commercial, and government buildings, material assets within buildings, public infrastructure, vehicles and boats, offshore energy platforms, and agricultural assets, as well as business interruption losses and disaster restoration and wildfire suppression costs. These estimates do not account for losses to natural capital, health care related costs, or values associated with loss of life.

Climate change is expected to worsen the frequency, intensity, and impacts of some types of extreme weather events. For example, sea level rise increases the impacts of coastal storms and warming can place more stress on water supplies during droughts. That’s why many cities, state, and businesses are taking steps to prepare for more extreme weather. A Closer Look at Business Resilience examines how companies are preparing for climate risks and what is keeping them from doing more. It also suggests strategies for companies and cities to collaborate to strengthen climate resilience. It updates the groundbreaking report, Weathering the Storm, Building Business Resilience to Climate Change, which provided a baseline for how companies were assessing their climate vulnerabilities.

Top 10 U.S. Disasters by Cost Since 2000. Event and Date Cost in billions (2020 USD). (unadjusted cost) Fatalities Description

Hurricane Katrina
August 2005 $170.0
($125) 1,833 Hurricane Katrina initially hit as a Category 1 near Miami, Fla., then as a stronger Category 3 along the eastern La.-western Miss. coastlines, resulting in severe storm surge damage (maximum surge probably exceeded 30 feet) along the La.-Miss.-Ala. coasts, wind damage, and the failure of parts of the levee system in New Orleans. High winds and some flooding occurred in Ala., Fla., Ga., Ind., Ky., Miss., Ohio and Tenn.
Hurricane Harvey
August 2017 $131.3
($125) 89 Hurricane Harvey made landfall as a Category 4 hurricane near Rockport, Texas. A large region of extreme rainfall produced historic flooding across Houston and surrounding areas. More than 30 inches of rainfall fell on 6.9 million people (and some areas experienced over 50 inches) based on 7-day rainfall totals. The resulting flooding displaced over 30,000 people and damaged or destroyed over 200,000 homes and businesses.
Hurricane Maria
September 2017 $94.5
($90) 2,981 Hurricane Maria initially hit St. Croix and made landfall in southeast Puerto Rico as a Category 4 and strengthened to a Category 5 storm. The hurricane dropped 37 inches of rain, causing widespread flooding and landslides. The heavy winds caused extensive damage to the island’s agriculture, communication, transportation, and energy infrastructure. The hurricane was one of the deadliest storms to hit the United States, with significant indirect deaths in the storm’s aftermath.
Hurricane Sandy
October 2012 $74.1
($65) 159 Hurricane Sandy caused extensive damage across several northeastern states (Conn., Del., Mass., Md., N.J., N.Y., R.I.) due to high wind and coastal storm surge, particularly in N.J. and N.Y. Damage from wind, rain and heavy snow also extended more broadly to other states (N.C., N.H., Ohio, Pa., Va., W.Va.), as Sandy merged with a developing Nor’easter. Sandy interrupted critical water and electrical services in major population centers and caused 159 deaths (72 direct, 87 indirect). Sandy also shut down the New York Stock Exchange for two consecutive business days, the first time a weather event caused a closing since a major winter storm in 1888.
Hurricane Irma
September 2017 $52.5
($50) 97 Hurricane Irma made landfall as a Category 4 hurricane at Cudjoe Key, Fla. after devastating the U.S. Virgin Islands— St John and St Thomas — as a Category 5 storm. 25% of buildings were destroyed and 65% were significantly damaged in the Florida Keys. Severe wind and storm surge occurred along the coasts of Florida and South Carolina. Irma maintained a maximum sustained wind of 185 mph for 37 hours, the longest in the satellite era. Irma also was a Category 5 storm for longer than all other Atlantic hurricanes except Ivan in 2004.
Hurricane Ike
September 2008 $36.9
($30) 112 Hurricane Ike made landfall in Texas as a Category 2 hurricane. It was the largest Atlantic hurricane on record by size, causing a considerable storm surge in coastal TX and significant wind and flooding damage in Ark., Ill., Ind., Ky., La., Mich., Mo., Ohio, Pa., Tenn. and Texas.
U.S. Drought/Heatwave
2012 $34.2
($30) 123 The 2012 drought is one of the most extensive to affect the United States since the 1930s, affecting more than half the country with major impacts to corn and soybean production, and deadly summer heat causing 123 deaths.
Hurricane Ivan
September 2004 $28.7
($20.5) 57 Hurricane Ivan made landfall on Gulf coast of Ala. as a Category 3 hurricane, with significant wind, storm surge, and flooding damage in coastal Ala. and Fla. Panhandle, along with wind/flood damage in the states of Ga., Miss., La., S.C., N.C., Va., W.Va., Md., Tenn., Ky., Ohio, Del., N.J., Pa., and N.Y.
Hurricane Wilma
October 2005 $25.8
($19) 35 Hurricane Wilma hit SW Florida as a Category 3 hurricane, resulting in strong damaging winds and major flooding across southeastern Florida. Prior to landfall, Wilma as a Category 5 recorded the lowest pressure (882 mb) ever recorded in the Atlantic basin.
Hurricane Michael
October 2018 $25
($25) 49 Hurricane Michael made landfall at Mexico Beach, Fla. as a powerful Category 4 hurricane with devastating winds of 155 mph and storm surge in excess of 15 feet. Mexico Beach was nearly destroyed, while Panama City suffered extensive damage. Michael’s intense winds caused billions in damages to agriculture and forestry far inland.

U.S. Drought Events Since 2000. Date Cost in billions (2020 USD)
(unadjusted cost) Description States
2018 $3.1
($3.0) Many states were affected by extreme drought. Drought conditions persisted in the Four Corners region of the Southwest, causing damage to crops. Ariz., Colo., Kan., Mo., N.M., Okla., Texas, Utah
2017 $2.6
($2.5) Severe drought damaged agricultural crops, including wheat. Lack of feed forced ranchers to sell their cattle. This drought increased wildfire risk leading up to the 2017 wildfires. Mont., N.D., S.D.
2016 $3.8
($3.5) In California, the 5-year drought continued, destroying over 100 million trees. Stressed water supplies in the Northeast and Southeast impacted agricultural production. Ala., Calif., Conn., Ga., Mass., N.H., N.J., N.Y., Pa., R.I., Tenn., Vt.
2015 $5.0
($4.5) Drought conditions continued to affect California throughout 2015, heavily impacting the agricultural sector. Drought conditions improved in Texas and Oklahoma due to several major flood events. Ariz., Calif., Idaho, Mont., Nev., Ore., Utah, Wash.
2014 $4.4
($4.0) California experienced the worst drought on record. Surrounding states and parts of Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas continued to experience severe drought conditions. Ariz., Calif., Kan., Nev., N.M., Okla., Ore., Texas
2013 $11.7
($10.4) Drought conditions slowly improved in Midwestern and Plains states but continued in western states. Moderate crop losses occurred across the central agricultural states and the heat caused 53 deaths. Ariz., Calif., Colo., Iowa, Idaho, Ill., Kan., Mich., Minn., Mo., N.D., Neb., N.M., Nev., Okla., Ore., S.D., Texas, Utah, Wash., Wis., Wyo.
2012 $34.2
($30.0) The 2012 drought was the most extensive since the 1930s. Moderate to extreme drought conditions affected more than half the country. Costly drought impacts occurred in central states, with widespread harvest failure. The summer heatwave caused 123 direct deaths. Calif., Nev., Idaho, Mont., Wyo., Utah, Colo., Ariz., N.M., Texas, N.D., S.D., Neb., Kan., Okla., Ark., Mo., Iowa, Minn., Ill., Ind., Ga.
2011 $14.0
($12.0) Drought and heat wave conditions persisted. The majority of range and pastures in Texas and Oklahoma were in “very poor” condition. Heat conditions caused to 95 deaths. Ariz., Kan., La., N.M., Okla., Texas
2009 $4.3
($3.5) Drought conditions persisted across parts of the Southwest, Great Plains, and southern Texas, with Texas and California suffering the most agricultural losses. Ariz., Calif., Kan., N.M., Okla., Texas
2008 $8.6
($7.0) Severe drought and heat caused agricultural losses in areas of the South and West. Record low lake levels also occurred in areas of the Southeast. Ala., Ark., Calif., Colo., Ga., Idaho, Ind., Kan., Ky., Md., Minn., Miss., Mont., N.C., N.D., N.J., N.M., Ohio, Okla., Ore., S.C., Tenn., Texas, Utah, Va., Wash., Wis.
2007 $4.5
($3.5) Severe drought with periods of extreme heat resulted in major crop yield loss, reduced stream flows and lake levels, and caused 15 deaths. Ala., Ark., Fla., Ga., Ill., Ind., Iowa, Kan., Ky., La., Mich., Minn., Miss., Mo., N.C., N.D., N.Y., Neb., Ohio, Okla., Pa., S.C., S.D., Tenn., Texas, Va., Wis., W.Va.
2006 $7.8
($6.0) Severe drought affected crops, caused wildfires and low streams and rivers in the Great Plains and portions of the South and far West. Ala., Ark., Colo., Fla., Ga., Iowa, Kan., La., Minn., Miss., Mo., Mont., N.D., N.M., Neb., Okla., S.D., Texas, Wyo.
2005 $2.0
($1.5) Severe localized drought caused significant crop losses, especially for corn and soybeans. Ark., Ill., Ind., Mo., Ohio, Wis.
2003 $7.1
($5.0) Drought across western and central portions of the United States with losses to agriculture. Thirty-five deaths were caused by the heatwave. Ariz., Colo., Idaho, Ill., Iowa, Kan., Mich., Minn., Mo., Mont., N.D., N.D., N.M., Neb., Ore., S.D., Wash., Wis.
2002 $13.1
($9.0) Large portions of 30 states experienced moderate to extreme drought conditions. Ala., Ariz., Calif., Colo., Conn., Del., Fla., Ga., Idaho, Iowa, Kan. La., Maine, Md., Mich., Miss., Mo., Mont., Neb., Nev., N.M., N.C., N.D., Ohio, Okla., Ore., Pa., R.I., S.C., S.D., Texas, Utah, Va., Wyo.
2000 $7.6
($5.0) Severe drought and persistent heat over south-central and southeastern states caused significant losses to agriculture and related industries. The heat caused 140 deaths. Ala., Ariz., Ark., Calif., Colo., Fla., Ga., Iowa, Kan., La., Miss., Mont., Neb., N.M., Okla., Ore. S.C., Tenn., Texas

How Many Real Biases Are There? | SpringerLink

(1) RESPONSE TO THE EXTREME WEATHER HYPOTHESIS OF CLIMATE SCIENCE: PART-1: WHAT CLIMATE SCIENTISTS SAY ABOUT THEIR METHODOLOGY

THESE QUOTES FROM CLIMATE SCIENTISTS PROVIDE EVIDENCE THAT FINDINGS OF RESEARCH IN CLIMATE CHANGE ARE MOSTLY THE CREATION OF CONFIRMATION BIAS. 

  1. Reporting on climate change means forever being on the hunt for inflection points. Have global emissions peaked? When will the building of coal-fired power plants slow in, say, China? Has Arctic sea ice extent reached a record low?
  2. Every time the International Energy Agency (IEA) publishes a fresh report, journalists and analysts dive in to search for such nuggets buried in the data. This week, it released its latest annual “World Energy Investment” report and Carbon Brief’s Josh Gabbatiss rolled up his sleeves and pulled out the key charts for his summary article.
  3. Predictably, the Covid-19 crisis has had a dramatic impact on energy investment around the world. This year will see the largest ever fall in both investment and consumer spending on energy, said the IEA. However, the report also reveals various other insights. For example, it shows that, as demand and prices collapse, consumer spending on oil is expected to drop by more than $1tn, prompting a “historic switch” as spending on electricity exceeds oil for the first time.

(2) RESPONSE TO THE EXTREME WEATHER HYPOTHESIS OF CLIMATE SCIENCE: PART-2: COMMENTS ON EXTREME WEATHER RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

RELATED POST: CONFIRMATION BIAS: https://tambonthongchai.com/2018/08/03/confirmationbias/

RELATED POST: EVENT ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE: https://tambonthongchai.com/2018/07/10/event-attribution-science-a-case-study/

RELATED POST; THE INTERNAL CLIMATE VARIABILITY ISSUE IN CLIMATE SCIENCE: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/07/16/the-internal-variability-issue/ {“Internal climate variability limits the ability of climate science to attribute localized extreme weather events to anthropogenic global warming. Localized means geographically limited and Event means time span limited.“}

RELATED POST: WHAT DOES UNCERTAINTY MEAN? https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/04/22/climate-science-uncertainty/

RELATED POST: THE HIDDEN HAND OF ACTIVISM: https://tambonthongchai.com/2019/02/03/hidden-hand/

RELATED POST: ADVOCACY TRUMPS STATISTICS#1: https://tambonthongchai.com/2018/05/06/consensus-science/

RELATED POST: ADVOCACY TRUMPS STATISTICS#2: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/08/25/earth-system-models-and-carbon-budgets/

RELATED POST: ADVOCACY TRUMPS STATISTICS#3: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/04/09/climate-statistics/

RELATED POST: CLIMATE CHANGE AND WILDFIRES#1: https://tambonthongchai.com/2019/11/12/climate-change-wildfires/

RELATED POST: CLIMATE CHANGE AND WILDFIRES#2: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/08/21/climate-change-and-california-wildfires/

RELATED POST: CLIMATE CHANGE AND WILDFIRES#3; https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/09/26/global-warming-and-wildfires/

RELATED POST ON TROPICAL CYCLONES#1: https://tambonthongchai.com/2019/08/01/tropical-cyclones-climate-change/

RELATED POST ON TROPICAL CYCLONES#2: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/03/04/agwcyclones/

TRUMP VS AAAS SCIENTISTS | Thongchai Thailand
noah

CONCLUSION

(1) Extreme weather event attribution post hoc is subject to confirmation bias and data selection bias. (2) The attribution of localized extreme weather events to AGW overlooks the Internal Climate Variability issue. (3) The attribution of selected tropical cyclones or tropical cyclone seasons in a single cyclone basin violates the climate science position on the tropical cyclone issue in Knutson etal 2010 that says that only trends in decadal means of tropical cyclone activity in all six cyclone basins over a sufficiently long time span of 30 years or more can be considered for such attribution. (4) The linked posts above expose the activism and advocacy priority of climate science in pushing for climate action and the advocacy priority provides the motive for climate science to seek out ways to create fear of AGW with extreme weather events. (5) The use of high variance to compute large confidence intervals and then to use the end of the confidence interval that suits the need of creating the extreme weather fear for AGW is biased and a flawed understanding of uncertainty. Large confidence intervals mean we don’t really know. They don’t mean Oh look how high it could be. (6): A serious flaw in these analyses is circular reasoning, confirmation bias, and advocacy bias that looks for AGW as the only causation mechanism. Other variables are not studied. For example in forest fires forest management practices are overlooked with a single minded focus on heat and dryness attributed to AGW as the only cause of all things bad. (7): There is an assumption in these studies that all bad things that occur during a time of AGW must have been caused by AGW. This assumption is deeply flawed and deeply embedded in climate change impact studies. For example, the same Diffenbaugh that we cited above is also the author of the income inequality paper discussed in a related post: LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2019/04/25/inequality/. where he found growing inequality between rich countries and poor countries and since this trend is found during a time of climate change he concluded that it was caused by climate change and rationalized it in terms of hot poor countries and cool rich countries. As shown in the related post cited above, his findings are flawed because his methodology is flawed but this flawed methodology is common in climate science particularly so in extreme weather attribution. (8): Extreme weather event attribution to AGW by climate scientists is not credible in this light.

A huge iceberg just broke off Antarctica's Pine Island Glacier
Thwaites Glacier: If hole collapses from global warming, what happens?
Cracked: Pine Island Glacier | Copernicus
Thwaites Glacier is melting faster than thought - Tech Explorist

THIS POST IS A CRITICAL REVIEW OF A PNAS PAPER AND AN EARTHSKY ARTICLE ABOUT THAT PAPER DESCRIBING HOW ANTHROPOGENIC GLOBAL WARMING THREATENS THE PINE ISLAND GLACIER AND THE THWAITES GLACER IN WEST ANTARCTICA. (Maps above show their location).

LINK TO SOURCE: THE PNAS PAPER: https://www.pnas.org/content/117/40/24735 . THE EARTHSKY ARTICLE ABOUT THE PAPER: https://earthsky.org/earth/worsening-rifts-fractures-2-important-antarctic-glaciers

THE PNAS PAPER:

Damage accelerates ice shelf instability and mass loss in Amundsen Sea Embayment. Sainan Sun, Christopher Shuman, Bert Wouters, Frank Pattyn, Jan Wuite, Etienne Berthier, Thomas Nagler
PNAS October 6, 2020 117 (40) 24735-24741; September 2020; https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1912890117.

Significance: Pine Island Glacier and Thwaites Glacier in the Amundsen Sea Embayment are among the fastest changing outlet glaciers in Antarctica. Yet, projecting the future of these glaciers remains a major uncertainty for sea level rise. Here we use satellite imagery to show the development of damage areas with crevasses and open fractures on Pine Island and Thwaites ice shelves. These damage areas are first signs of their structural weakening as they precondition these ice shelves for disintegration. Model results that include the damage mechanism highlight the importance of damage for ice shelf stability, grounding line retreat, and future sea level contributions from Antarctica. Moreover, they underline the need for incorporating damage processes in models to improve sea level rise projections.

ABSTRACT: Pine Island Glacier and Thwaites Glacier in the Amundsen Sea Embayment are among the fastest changing outlet glaciers in West Antarctica with large consequences for global sea level. Yet, assessing how much and how fast both glaciers will weaken if these changes continue remains a major uncertainty as many of the processes that control their ice shelf weakening and grounding line retreat are not well understood. Here, we combine multisource satellite imagery with modeling to uncover the rapid development of damage areas in the shear zones of Pine Island and Thwaites ice shelves. These damage areas consist of highly crevassed areas and open fractures and are first signs that the shear zones of both ice shelves have structurally weakened over the past decade. Idealized model results reveal moreover that the damage initiates a feedback process where initial ice shelf weakening triggers the development of damage in their shear zones, which results in further speedup, shearing, and weakening, hence promoting additional damage development. This damage feedback potentially preconditions these ice shelves for disintegration and enhances grounding line retreat. The results of this study suggest that damage feedback processes are key to future ice shelf stability, grounding line retreat, and sea level contributions from Antarctica. Moreover, they underline the need for incorporating these feedback processes, which are currently not accounted for in most ice sheet models, to improve sea level rise projections.

 

THE EARTHSKY ARTICLE:  

Satellite imagery has revealed that 2 of the fastest-changing glaciers in Antarctica – Pine Island and Thwaites – are fracturing and weakening faster than ever, a step towards the glaciers’ disintegrating and causing sea levels to rise dramatically. The ice sheets of both glaciers can be seen fracturing and tearing apart. Satellite imagery has revealed fracturing and weakening of two of the fastest-changing glaciers on the Antarctic continent, the Pine Island and Thwaites glaciers. According to a new study, published October 6, 2020 in the peer-reviewed Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, the two glaciers are disintegrating faster than ever, and are responsible for a substantial 5% of global sea level rise. Together, the two glaciers, in an area of Antarctica called the Amundsen Sea Embayment, form an area of flowing ice the size of Norway, and hold enough water to raise global sea levels by over a meter. In recent decades, both of the glaciers have distinctly changed in form along with changing atmospheric and oceanic conditions, with the warming oceans causing ice shelves to melt, thin, and retreat. Using imaging data from several different satellites for from 1997-2016, the researchers looked at how the glacier and ice shelf elevation had changed over this time, and changes in the speed of moving ice. They found structural damage at what’s called the ‘shear margins’ of the glaciers’ ice shelves, where the ice transitions from fast-moving to slow-moving: large crevasses, rifts and open fractures that indicate that the ice shelves are slowly tearing apart. Stef Lhermitte of Delft University of Technology in the Netherlands is lead author of the new study. He said in a statement: Currently, the ice shelves are a little like a slow car in traffic: they force anything behind them to slow down. Once they’re removed, ice sitting further inland will be able to speed up, which in turn will cause sea levels to rise even faster. Animation of a transverse crack appearing in a large ice sheet. Rift evolution across the ice tongue – a long, narrow ice sheet extending seaward – of Antarctica’s Pine Island glacier (PIG) in September and October of 2018, as seen by the Copernicus Sentinel-1 mission. The video shows the emergence of an ice sheet rift in a region that was previously stable. Image via ESA. The team modeled the potential impact of the damaged shear margins. Study co-author Thomas Nagler of ENVEO in Austria, said: This fracturing appears to kick off a feedback process – it preconditions the ice shelves to disintegrate. As the glaciers fracture at their weak points this damage speeds up, spreads, and weakens more of the ice shelves, causing further deterioration – and making it more likely that the shelves will start crumbling apart even faster. As the ice shelves become increasingly damaged, the glaciers lose mass, and their ‘grounding lines’ – the region where ice sheets become buoyant enough to detach from the seafloor and float – retreat. Overall, the researchers said, damage feedback processes appear to be a key factor in the future stability of Antarctica’s ice shelves, and, in turn, in how fast the continent’s glaciers melt and cause global sea levels to rise. We know that a significant amount of glacial ice in West Antarctica is currently being affected by climate change. In fact, a recent study found 24% of this ice to be rapidly thinning and unstable. These new results underline just how quickly this damage is occurring, and reveal that Pine Island and Thwaites glaciers are more vulnerable than ever before. Bottom line: A video shows the evolution of damage to Antarctica’s Pine Island and Thwaites glaciers from October 2014 to July 2020. The video, made using satellite images, shows the ice sheets of both glaciers fracturing and tearing apart.

 

CRITICAL COMMENTARY

In a related post on the geological features of West Antarctica: [LINK] , we show that the West Antarctica region where The Thwaites and Pine Island Glaciers are located sits atop the West Antarctic Rift System (WARS). This long rift system cuts across most of West Antarctica. It is is more than 7 million square km  measuring 6,440 by 1127km. The West Antarctic Rift System is home to the Marie Byrd Mantle Plume Hotspot and more than 100 active volcanoes. A brief description of rifting is provided below {courtesy of the Engineering & Geosciences department of James Madison University JMU.EDU.} 

A Divergent plate boundary is where two lithospheric plates are being pulled apart by enormous amounts of energy in a geological process called rifting that creates new oceanic lithosphere. As the plates are pulled apart, Magma oozes up from the mantle. When rifting is complete a new divergent plate boundary and a new ocean basin is created. Rifting is initiated by magma plumes rising from deep in the mantle toward the surface. As the plume rises it heats the overlying lithosphere causing it to swell upward to create a hot spot. The magma that reaches the surface creates volcanoes. 
Eventually a long string of volcanos may form. When a mantle plume reaches the base of the continental lithosphere it spreads out creating a pond of magma. The overlying lithosphere heats and swells upward to form the hot spot, about 1000 km in diameter and 3 to 4 km above sea level. As the hot spot dome swells its upper surface stretches until the crust cracks and creates  faults.

All of West Antarctica is geologically active in this manner and the Pine island and Thwaites glaciers are located within the Marie Byrd Mantle Plume Hotspot which in turn is located within the West Antarctic Rift System. In the map below, red triangles indicate locations of active volcanoes. 

 

THE WEST ANTARCTIC RIFT SYSTEM (WARS)

Antarctic rift was active more recently than thought | EARTH Magazine

West Antarctic rift | The Lyncean Group of San Diego

 

THE MARIE BYRD MANTLE PLUME HOT SPOT

marie-byrd-mantle-plume | Thongchai Thailand

In the study of ice melt events in West Antarctica, these geological features and their associated volcanic activity underneath the Thwaites and Pine Island glaciers cannot be ignored in favor of an exclusive consideration of anthropogenic global warming by way of the greenhouse effect of atmospheric carbon dioxide thought to have been dangerously increased by fossil fuel emissions. 

As shown in a related post: [LINK] , in the period 1979 to 2019, the rate of warming in global mean temperature when averaged across all 12 calendar months was 1.3C per century with the rates for the individual calendar months ranging from 1.1C/century for the months of May and June to 1.55C/century for September and October.

In the Tropics, the warming rates are somewhat lower than at an average of 1.2C per century for all 12 calendar months with the corresponding monthly rates ranging from 0.9C for March to 1.7C for July. 

In the North, the warming rate is significantly higher for the Arctic region where the annual average rate is 2.57C per century and the monthly rates range from 1.4C for July to 3.8C for April. But a very different warming situation is found in the other polar region.

For the Antarctic South Polar Region we find a mean annual warming rate of 0.16C per century with the rates for the calendar months ranging from the winter months of June and July that are cooling at a rate of 1.7C per century to the summer month of November that is warming at 2.5C per century. Th six calendar months from April to September show cooling and the other six calendar months from October to March show warming. Since ice melt events in Antarctica are not seasonal, the relevant warming rate for that consideration is the very low annual mean rate of 0.16C per century.  This anthropogenic global warming rate for the South Polar region does not indicate that global warming there is the driver of ice melt events in Antarctica. 

Accordingly, climate science explains ice melt events in Antarctica in terms of anthropogenic global warming by way of ocean currents that bring warmth from the Tropics to the Antarctic. Ice melt events are explained in terms of the relative warmth of the Antarctic Deep Circumpolar Current and the warmth of the Deep Circumpolar current is explained in terms of heat transfer from the Tropics to the Antarctic by way of ocean currents. Ice melt events in Antarctica are then attributed to anthropogenic global warming on this basis. 

Turbulence in a climate model simulation of the Antarctic Circumpolar  Current [OC] - GIF on Imgur

There are two difficult and unresolved issues for the climate change theory of ice melt events in Antarctica in this manner. The first issue is that significant evidence exists not only for the for the relative warmth of the Deep Circumpolar Current but for ice melt events themselves in terms of geological heat implied by the geological features of West Antarctica described above. The relevant geothermal heat map is shown below (courtesy of Martos etal 2017) . A bibliography on this topic follows the Martos geothermal heat map.

 

CONCLUSION:  The claim that the observed ice melt events can be attributed to anthropogenic global warming and that such melt events can then be forecast as a predicter of the sea level rise of anthropogenic global warming is not possible in light of the complex episodic and localized event nature of ice melt in Antarctica and the clearer explanation of this phenomenon in terms of the known geological features of the region

If ice melt in Antarctica were driven by global warming it would be more uniform and more of a trend as in the Arctic and not isolated, episodic, and restricted to known geologically active locations. Glacial and ice shelf melt events that are restricted to geologically active locations of Antarctica cannot be understood as the impacts of fossil fuel emissions that can be moderated or prevented by taking climate action. For that, significant additional evidence must be provided that relates the melt events to atmospheric temperature data. No such evidence has been provided in this study where, as in all such studies, an atmosphere bias in the research methodology assumes that ice melt can only be explained in terms of anthropogenic global warming. 

 

The Martos etal geothermal heat map. . 

YASMINA-1

YASMINA-2

dziadek2017

 

ANTARCTICA GEOTHERMAL HEAT FLUX BIBLIOGRAPHY

  1. Scambos, Ted A., et al. “The link between climate warming and break-up of ice shelves in the Antarctic Peninsula.” Journal of Glaciology 46.154 (2000): 516-530.  A review of in situ and remote-sensing data covering the ice shelves of the Antarctic Peninsula provides a series of characteristics closely associated with rapid shelf retreat: deeply embayed ice fronts; calving of myriad small elongate bergs in punctuated events; increasing flow speed; and the presence of melt ponds on the ice-shelf surface in the vicinity of the break-ups. As climate has warmed in the Antarctic Peninsula region, melt-season duration and the extent of ponding have increased. Most break-up events have occurred during longer melt seasons, suggesting that meltwater itself, not just warming, is responsible. Regions that show melting without pond formation are relatively unchanged. Melt ponds thus appear to be a robust harbinger of ice-shelf retreat. We use these observations to guide a model of ice-shelf flow and the effects of meltwater. Crevasses present in a region of surface ponding will likely fill to the brim with water. We hypothesize (building on Weertman (1973), Hughes (1983) and Van der Veen (1998)) that crevasse propagation by meltwater is the main mechanism by which ice shelves weaken and retreat. A thermodynamic finite-element model is used to evaluate ice flow and the strain field, and simple extensions of this model are used to investigate crack propagation by meltwater. The model results support the hypothesis.
  2. Convey, P., et al. “The flora of the South Sandwich Islands, with particular reference to the influence of geothermal heating.” Journal of Biogeography 27.6 (2000): 1279-1295.  Data obtained in 1997 are combined with updated records from the only previous survey (in 1964) to provide a baseline description of the flora of the archipelago, which currently includes 1 phanerogam, 38 mosses, 11 liverworts, 5 basidiomycete fungi, 41 lichenised fungi and 16 diatoms with, additionally, several taxa identified only to genus. Major elements of the moss and liverwort floras are composed of South American taxa (32% and 73%, respectively), with a further 45% of mosses having bipolar or cosmopolitan distributions. These two groups show low levels of Antarctic endemicity (11% and 18%, respectively). In contrast, 52% of lichens and 80% of basidiomycete fungi are endemic to the Antarctic. A further 36% of lichens are bipolar/cosmopolitan, with only 5% of South American origin. The flora of the South Sandwich Islands is clearly derived from those of other Antarctic zones. The flora of unheated ground is closely related to that of the maritime Antarctic, although with a very limited number of species represented. That of heated ground contains both maritime and sub‐Antarctic elements, confirming the importance of geothermal heating for successful colonisation of the latter group. The occurrence of several maritime Antarctic species only on heated ground confirms the extreme severity of the archipelago’s climate in comparison with well‐studied sites much further south in this biogeographical zone.
  3. Smith, RI Lewis. “The bryophyte flora of geothermal habitats on Deception Island, Antarctica.” The Journal of the Hattori Botanical Laboratory 97 (2005): 233-248.  Deception Island is one of the most volcanically active sites south of 60°S. Between 1967 and 1970 three major eruptions devastated large expanses of the landscape and its predominantly cryptogamic vegetation. Since 1970 extensive recolonisation has occurred on the more stable surfaces. Unheated ground supports several bryophyte and lichen communities typical of much of the maritime Antarctic, but geothermal habitats possess remarkable associations of bryophytes, many of the species being unknown or very rare elsewhere in the Antarctic. Nine geothermal sites were located and their vegetation investigated in detail. Communities associated with more transient sites have disappeared when the geothermal activity ceased. Mosses and liverworts occur to within a few centimetres of fumarole vents where temperatures reach 90-95℃, while temperatures within adjacent moss turf can reach 35-50℃ or more and remain consistently between 25 and 45℃. Most of the bryoflora has a Patagonian-Fuegian provenance and it is presumed that, unlike most species, the thermophiles are not pre-adapted to the Antarctic environment, being able to colonise only where the warm and humid conditions prevail.
  4. Vieira, Gonçalo, et al. “Geomorphological observations of permafrost and ground-ice degradation on Deception and Livingston Islands, Maritime Antarctica.” (2008): 1939-1844. The Antarctic Peninsula is experiencing one of the fastest increases in mean annual air temperatures (ca. 2.5oC in the last 50 years) on Earth. If the observed warming trend continues as indicated by climate models, the region could suffer widespread permafrost degradation. This paper presents field observations of geomorphological features linked to permafrost and ground-ice degradation at two study areas: northwest Hurd Peninsula (Livingston Island) and Deception Island along the Antarctic Peninsula. These observations include thermokarst features, debris flows, active-layer detachment slides, and rockfalls. The processes observed may be linked not only to an increase in temperature, but also to increased rainfall, which can trigger debris flows and other processes. On Deception Island some thermokarst (holes in the ground produced by the selective melting of permafrost)  features may be related to anomalous geothermal heat flux from volcanic activity.
  5. Mulvaney, Robert, et al. “Recent Antarctic Peninsula warming relative to Holocene climate and ice-shelf history.” Nature 489.7414 (2012): 141-144.  Rapid warming over the past 50 years on the Antarctic Peninsula is associated with the collapse of a number of ice shelves and accelerating glacier mass loss1,2,3,4,5,6,7. In contrast, warming has been comparatively modest over West Antarctica and significant changes have not been observed over most of East Antarctica8,9, suggesting that the ice-core palaeoclimate records available from these areas may not be representative of the climate history of the Antarctic Peninsula. Here we show that the Antarctic Peninsula experienced an early-Holocene warm period followed by stable temperatures, from about 9,200 to 2,500 years ago, that were similar to modern-day levels. Our temperature estimates are based on an ice-core record of deuterium variations from James Ross Island, off the northeastern tip of the Antarctic Peninsula. We find that the late-Holocene development of ice shelves near James Ross Island was coincident with pronounced cooling from 2,500 to 600 years ago. This cooling was part of a millennial-scale climate excursion with opposing anomalies on the eastern and western sides of the Antarctic Peninsula. Although warming of the northeastern Antarctic Peninsula began around 600 years ago, the high rate of warming over the past century is unusual (but not unprecedented) in the context of natural climate variability over the past two millennia. The connection shown here between past temperature and ice-shelf stability suggests that warming for several centuries rendered ice shelves on the northeastern Antarctic Peninsula vulnerable to collapse. Continued warming to temperatures that now exceed the stable conditions of most of the Holocene epoch is likely to cause ice-shelf instability to encroach farther southward along the Antarctic Peninsula.
  6. Fraser, Ceridwen I., et al. “Geothermal activity helps life survive glacial cycles.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 111.15 (2014): 5634-5639.  The evolution and maintenance of diversity through cycles of past climate change have hinged largely on the availability of refugia (places where life can survive through a period of unfavorable conditions such as glaciation). Geothermal refugia may have been particularly important for survival through past glaciations. Our spatial modeling of Antarctic biodiversity indicates that some terrestrial groups likely survived throughout intense glacial cycles on ice-free land or in sub-ice caves associated with areas of geothermal activity, from which recolonization of the rest of the continent took place. These results provide unexpected insights into the responses of various species to past climate change and the importance of geothermal regions in promoting biodiversity. Furthermore, they indicate the likely locations of biodiversity “hotspots” in Antarctica, suggesting a critical focus for future conservation efforts.
  7. An, Meijian, et al. “Temperature, lithosphere‐asthenosphere boundary, and heat flux beneath the Antarctic Plate inferred from seismic velocities.” Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth 120.12 (2015): 8720-8742.  We estimate the upper mantle temperature of the Antarctic Plate based on the thermoelastic properties of mantle minerals and S velocities using a new 3‐D shear velocity model, AN1‐S. Crustal temperatures and surface heat fluxes are then calculated from the upper mantle temperature assuming steady state thermal conduction. The temperature at the top of the asthenosphere beneath the oceanic region and West Antarctica is higher than the dry mantle solidus, indicating the presence of melt. From the temperature values, we generate depth maps of the lithosphere‐asthenosphere boundary and the Curie temperature isotherm. The maps show that East Antarctica has a thick lithosphere similar to that of other stable cratons, with the thickest lithosphere (~250 km) between Domes A and C. The thin crust and lithosphere beneath West Antarctica are similar to those of modern subduction‐related rift systems in East Asia. A cold region beneath the Antarctic Peninsula is similar in spatial extent to that of a flat‐subducted slab beneath the southern Andes, indicating a possible remnant of the Phoenix Plate, which was subducted prior to 10 Ma. The oceanic lithosphere generally thickens with increasing age, and the age‐thickness correlation depends on the spreading rate of the ridge that formed the lithosphere. Significant flattening of the age‐thickness curves is not observed for the mature oceanic lithosphere of the Antarctic Plate.
  8. Dziadek, Ricarda, et al. “Geothermal heat flux in the Amundsen Sea sector of West Antarctica: New insights from temperature measurements, depth to the bottom of the magnetic source estimation, and thermal modeling.” Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems 18.7 (2017): 2657-2672[FULL TEXT]  Focused research on the Pine Island and Thwaites glaciers, which drain the West Antarctic Ice Shelf (WAIS) into the Amundsen Sea Embayment (ASE), revealed strong signs of instability in recent decades that result from variety of reasons, such as inflow of warmer ocean currents and reverse bedrock topography, and has been established as the Marine Ice Sheet Instability hypothesis. Geothermal heat flux (GHF) is a poorly constrained parameter in Antarctica and suspected to affect basal conditions of ice sheets, i.e., basal melting and subglacial hydrology. Thermomechanical models demonstrate the influential boundary condition of geothermal heat flux for (paleo) ice sheet stability. Due to a complex tectonic and magmatic history of West Antarctica, the region is suspected to exhibit strong heterogeneous geothermal heat flux variations. We present an approach to investigate ranges of realistic heat fluxes in the ASE by different methods, discuss direct observations, and 3‐D numerical models that incorporate boundary conditions derived from various geophysical studies, including our new Depth to the Bottom of the Magnetic Source (DBMS) estimates. Our in situ temperature measurements at 26 sites in the ASE more than triples the number of direct GHF observations in West Antarctica. We demonstrate by our numerical 3‐D models that GHF spatially varies from 68 up to 110 mW m−2.
  9. Martos, Yasmina M., et al. “Heat flux distribution of Antarctica unveiled.” Geophysical Research Letters 44.22 (2017): 11-417.  [FULL TEXT]  Antarctica is the largest reservoir of ice on Earth. Understanding its ice sheet dynamics is crucial to unraveling past global climate change and making robust climatic and sea level predictions. Of the basic parameters that shape and control ice flow, the most poorly known is geothermal heat flux. Direct observations of heat flux are difficult to obtain in Antarctica, and until now continent‐wide heat flux maps have only been derived from low‐resolution satellite magnetic and seismological data. We present a high‐resolution heat flux map and associated uncertainty derived from spectral analysis of the most advanced continental compilation of airborne magnetic data. Small‐scale spatial variability and features consistent with known geology are better reproduced than in previous models, between 36% and 50%. Our high‐resolution heat flux map and its uncertainty distribution provide an important new boundary condition to be used in studies on future subglacial hydrology, ice sheet dynamics, and sea level change.
  10. Burton‐Johnson, Alex, et al. “A new heat flux model for the Antarctic Peninsula incorporating spatially variable upper crustal radiogenic heat production.” Geophysical Research Letters 44.11 (2017): 5436-5446.  A new method for modeling heat flux shows that the upper crust contributes up to 70% of the Antarctic Peninsula’s subglacial heat flux and that heat flux values are more variable at smaller spatial resolutions than geophysical methods can resolve. Results indicate a higher heat flux on the east and south of the Peninsula (mean 81 mW m−2) where silicic rocks predominate, than on the west and north (mean 67 mW m−2) where volcanic arc and quartzose sediments are dominant. While the data supports the contribution of heat‐producing element‐enriched granitic rocks to high heat flux values, sedimentary rocks can be of comparative importance dependent on their provenance and petrography. Models of subglacial heat flux must utilize a heterogeneous upper crust with variable radioactive heat production if they are to accurately predict basal conditions of the ice sheet. Our new methodology and data set facilitate improved numerical model simulations of ice sheet dynamics.  
  11. Schroeder, Dustin M., et al. “Evidence for elevated and spatially variable geothermal flux beneath the West Antarctic Ice Sheet.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 111.25 (2014): 9070-9072SIGNIFICANCE: Thwaites Glacier is one of the West Antarctica’s most prominent, rapidly evolving, and potentially unstable contributors to global sea level rise. Uncertainty in the amount and spatial pattern of geothermal flux and melting beneath this glacier is a major limitation in predicting its future behavior and sea level contribution. In this paper, a combination of radar sounding and subglacial water routing is used to show that large areas at the base of Thwaites Glacier are actively melting in response to geothermal flux consistent with rift-associated magma migration and volcanism. This supports the hypothesis that heterogeneous geothermal flux and local magmatic processes could be critical factors in determining the future behavior of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. ABSTRACT: Heterogeneous hydrologic, lithologic, and geologic basal boundary conditions can exert strong control on the evolution, stability, and sea level contribution of marine ice sheets. Geothermal flux is one of the most dynamically critical ice sheet boundary conditions but is extremely difficult to constrain at the scale required to understand and predict the behavior of rapidly changing glaciers. This lack of observational constraint on geothermal flux is particularly problematic for the glacier catchments of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet within the low topography of the West Antarctic Rift System where geothermal fluxes are expected to be high, heterogeneous, and possibly transient. We use airborne radar sounding data with a subglacial water routing model to estimate the distribution of basal melting and geothermal flux beneath Thwaites Glacier, West Antarctica. We show that the Thwaites Glacier catchment has a minimum average geothermal flux of ∼114 ± 10 mW/m2 with areas of high flux exceeding 200 mW/m2 consistent with hypothesized rift-associated magmatic migration and volcanism. These areas of highest geothermal flux include the westernmost tributary of Thwaites Glacier adjacent to the subaerial Mount Takahe volcano and the upper reaches of the central tributary near the West Antarctic Ice Sheet Divide ice core drilling site.  [LINK TO FULL TEXT] 

LEFT: Bed topography of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet and Amundsen Sea Embayment. MIDDLE: Subglacial hydrologic potential (13) for a distributed water system in the upstream region of the Thwaites Glacier catchment (black boundary). RIGHT:  Collection of subglacial water routing models that best fit the observed radar bed echo strength distribution

 

Fig. 3.

Minimum geothermal flux and basal melt values required to reproduce the observed relative bed echo strengths (Fig. 2A) with subglacial water routing models (1327) (Fig. 1C) using the total melt water from an ice sheet model for the upstream portion of the Thwaites Glacier catchment (9). The minimum average inferred flux is ∼114 ± 10 mW/m2. High-flux areas exceed 200 mW/m2. A indicates the Mount Takahe volcano. B indicates the WAIS Divide ice core drilling site. High-melt areas are indicated by C in the westernmost tributary, D adjacent to the Crary mountains, and E in the upper portion of the central tributaries (8). Triangles show areas where radar-inferred melt anomalies exceed those generated by ice dynamics (friction and advection) (9) and inferred geothermal flux exceeds 150 mW/m2 (dark magenta) and 200 mW/m2 (light magenta). Bed topography (12) contour interval for Antarctica is 180 m. The upstream region of the Thwaites Glacier catchment contains several areas of strong relative bed echoes indicating larger quantities of subglacial water. The distribution of melt and geothermal flux includes several regions with high melt that are closely related to rift structure and associated volcanism.  These include the entire westernmost tributary (Fig. 3, location C) that flanks Mount Takahe (Fig. 3, location A), a subaerial volcano active in the Quaternary (2829), and several high-flux areas across the catchment adjacent to topographic features that are hypothesized to be volcanic in origin as seen in the image above and as described in Bahrendt 1998 and Bahrendt 2013, and Joughin 2009. We also observe high geothermal flux in the upper reaches of the central tributaries that are relatively close to the site of the WAIS Divide ice core where unexpectedly high melt and geothermal flux have been estimated. We estimate a minimum average geothermal flux value of about 114 mW/m2 with a notional uncertainty of about 10 mW/m2 for the Thwaites Glacier catchment with areas exceeding 200 mW/m2. These values are likely underestimates due to the low uniform geothermal flux value used in the ice sheet model and the compensating effect of enhanced vertical advection of cold shallow ice in high-melt areas. Note that this latter effect also predicts a subtle gradient of underestimated flux from the interior to the trunk as fast flow and associated frictional melting increases.

12. Behrendt, John C., et al. “Aeromagnetic evidence for a volcanic caldera  complex beneath the divide of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet.” Geophysical Research Letters 25.23 (1998): 4385-4388. A 1995–96 aeromagnetic survey over part of the Sinuous Ridge (SR) beneath the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) divide shows a 70‐km diameter circular pattern of 400–1200‐nT anomalies suggesting one of the largest volcanic caldera complexes on earth. Radar‐ice‐sounding (RIS) shows the northern part of this pattern overlies the SR, and extends south over the Bentley Subglacial Trench (BST). Modeled sources of all but one the caldera anomalies are at the base of <1–2‐km thick ice and their volcanic edifices have been glacially removed. The exception is a 700‐m high, 15‐km wide volcano” producing an 800‐nT anomaly over the BST. Intrusion of this volcano beneath 3 km of ice probably resulted in pillow basalt rather than easily removed hyaloclastite erupted beneath thinner ice. The background area (−300 to −500‐nT) surrounding the caldera is possibly caused by a shallow Curie isotherm. We suggest uplift of the SR forced the advance of the WAIS

13. Behrendt, John C. “The aeromagnetic method as a tool to identify Cenozoic magmatism in the West Antarctic Rift System beneath the West Antarctic Ice Sheet—A review; Thiel subglacial volcano as possible source of the ash layer in the WAISCORE.” Tectonophysics 585 (2013): 124-136The West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) sits on the volcanically active West Antarctic Rift System (WARS). The aeromagnetic method has been the most useful geophysical tool for identification of subglacial volcanic rocks, since 1959–64 surveys, particularly combined with 1978 radar ice-sounding. The unique 1991–97 Central West Antarctica (CWA) aerogeophysical survey covering 354,000 km2 over the WAIS, (5-km line-spaced, orthogonal lines of aeromagnetic, radar ice-sounding, and aerogravity measurements), still provides invaluable information on subglacial volcanic rocks, particularly combined with the older aeromagnetic profiles. These data indicate numerous 100–>1000 nT, 5–50-km width, shallow-source, magnetic anomalies over an area greater than 1.2 × 106 km2, mostly from subglacial volcanic sources. I interpreted the CWA anomalies as defining about 1000 “volcanic centers” requiring high remanent normal magnetizations in the present field direction. About 400 anomaly sources correlate with bed topography. At least 80% of these sources have less than 200 m relief at the WAIS bed. They appear modified by moving ice, requiring a younger age than the WAIS (about 25 Ma). Exposed volcanoes in the WARS are < 34 Ma, but at least four are active. If a few buried volcanic centers are active, subglacial volcanism may well affect the WAIS regime. Aero-geo-physical data (Blankenship et al., 1993, Mt. Casertz; Corr and Vaughan, 2008, near Hudson Mts.) indicated active subglacial volcanism. Magnetic data indicate a caldera and a surrounding “low” in the WAISCORE vicinity possibly the result of a shallow Curie isotherm. High heat flow reported from temperature logging in the WAISCORE (Conway et al., 2011; Clow, personal communication.) and a volcanic ash layer (Dunbar, 2012) are consistent with this interpretation. A subaerially erupted subglacial volcano, (Mt Thiel), about 100 km distant, may be the ash source. Aeromagnetic method most useful to study subglacial volcanic rocks beneath WAIS.  The Central West Antarctica aerogeophysical survey is a unique Antarctic data set.  Data indicate ~ 1000 magnetic anomalies mostly from subglacial volcanic eruptions. 

14. Joughin, Ian, et al. “Basal conditions for Pine Island and Thwaites Glaciers, West Antarctica, determined using satellite and airborne data.” Journal of Glaciology 55.190 (2009): 245-257.  We use models constrained by remotely sensed data from Pine Island and Thwaites Glaciers, West Antarctica, to infer basal properties that are difficult to observe directly. The results indicate strong basal melting in areas upstream of the grounding lines of both glaciers, where the ice flow is fast and the basal shear stress is large. Farther inland, we find that both glaciers have ‘mixed’ bed conditions, with extensive areas of both bedrock and weak till. In particular, there are weak areas along much of Pine Island Glacier’s main trunk that could prove unstable if it retreats past the band of strong bed just above its current grounding line. In agreement with earlier studies, our forward ice-stream model shows a strong sensitivity to small perturbations in the grounding line position. These results also reveal a large sensitivity to the assumed bed (sliding or deforming) model, with non-linear sliding laws producing substantially greater dynamic response than earlier simulations that assume a linear-viscous till rheology. Finally, comparison indicates that our results using a plastic bed are compatible with the limited observational constraints and theoretical work that suggests an upper bound exists on maximum basal shear stress.

 

Polar bears could disappear by 2100 due to melting ice, climate change,  study says
End of the planet' or Aladdin's cave? Climate change turns Arctic into  strategic, economic hotspot - pennlive.com
Climate Change Impact on Arctic Ecosystems – Climate Institute

THIS POST IS A CRITICAL REVIEW OF A GUARDIAN ARTICLE IN OCTOBER 2020 THAT THE ARCTIC IS IN A DEATH SPIRAL; LINK TO SOURCE: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/ng-interactive/2020/oct/13/arctic-ice-melting-climate-change-global-warming

Greenland Ice Sheet

WHAT THE GUARDIAN ARTICLE SAYS

with critical commentary inserted

  1. The Arctic is in a death spiral. How much longer will it exist? The region is unravelling faster than anyone could once have predicted. But there may still be time to act.
  2. At the end of July, 40% of the 4,000-year-old Milne Ice Shelf, located on the north-western edge of Ellesmere Island, calved into the sea. Canada’s last fully intact ice shelf was no more. On the other side of the island, the most northerly in Canada, the St Patrick’s Bay ice caps completely disappeared.
  3. Two weeks later, scientists concluded that the Greenland Ice Sheet may have already passed the point of no return. Annual snowfall is no longer enough to replenish the snow and ice loss during summer melting of the territory’s 234 glaciers.
  4. CLAIM: Last year, the ice sheet lost a record amount of ice, equivalent to 1 million metric tons every minute. RESPONSE: If the ice sheet is losing 1 million tonnes a minute every minute during the summer melt season June to September, it will lose 176 gigatons per year and at that rate, the whole of the Greenland Ice Sheet will be gone in the next 150,000 years while contributing about 0.5mm/year or 5cm per century to sea level rise. Is this a death spiral?
  5. CLAIM: The Arctic is unravelling. And it’s happening faster than anyone could have imagined just a few decades ago. RESPONSE: A few decades ago climate scientists were saying that global warming is devastating the Arctic and that the Arctic is screaming, as described in a related post: LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2019/02/22/old-climate-fears-revisited/ There we find that (1) 1999, Sea ice in the Arctic Basin is shrinking by 14000 square miles per year because of global warming caused by human activity according to a new international study that used 46 years of data and climate models to tackle the specific question of whether the loss of Arctic ice is a natural variation or caused by global warming. The computer model says that the probability that these changes were caused by natural variation is 1% but when global warming was added to the model the ice melt was a perfect fit. Therefore the ice melt is caused by human activities that emit greenhouse gases. (2) 2004 Global warming has unleashed massive ecological changes that are already under way. These changes are ushering in a grim future including massive species extinctions, an elevation of sea levels by 3 feet, wholesale changes to the Arctic. (3) 2004: RAPID ARCTIC WARMING BRINGS SEA LEVEL RISE. Increasing greenhouse gases from human activities is causing the Arctic to warm twice as fast as the rest of the planet; in Alaska, western Canada, and eastern Russia winter temperatures have risen by 2C to 4C in the last 50 years; the Arctic will warm by 4C to 7C by 2100. A portion of Greenland’s ice sheet will melt; global sea levels will rise; global warming will intensify. Greenland contains enough melting ice to raise sea levels by 7 meters; Bangkok, Manila, Dhaka, Florida, Louisiana, and New Jersey are at risk of inundation; thawing permafrost and rising seas threaten Arctic coastal regions; climate change will accelerate and bring about profound ecological and social changes; the Arctic is experiencing the most rapid and severe climate change on earth and it’s going to get a lot worse; Arctic summer sea ice will decline by 50% to 100%; polar bears will be driven towards extinction; this report is an urgent SOS for the Arctic; forest fires and insect infestations will increase in frequency and intensity; changing vegetation and rising sea levels will shrink the tundra to its lowest level in 21000 years; vanishing breeding areas for birds and grazing areas for animals will cause extinctions of many species. (4) 2004 GLOBAL WARMING WILL LEAVE ARCTIC ICE FREE. The Arctic ice cap is shrinking at an unprecedented rate and will be gone by 2070. It has shrunk by 15%to 20% in the last 30 years. This process will accelerate with the Arctic warming twice as fast as the rest of the world due to a buildup of heat trapping greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. (5) 2007: THE ARCTIC IS SCREAMING. Climate science declares that the low sea ice extent in the Arctic is the leading indicator of climate change. We are told that the Arctic “is screaming”, that Arctic sea ice extent is the “canary in the coal mine”, and that Polar Bears and other creatures in the Arctic are dying off and facing imminent extinction. Scientists say that the melting sea ice has set up a positive feedback system that would cause the summer melts in subsequent years to be greater and greater until the Arctic becomes ice free in the summer of 2012. (6) 2007. Climate scientists say that the Arctic is on its way to becoming ice free in summer and that therefore the polar bear should be declared an endangered species under the Endangered Species Act and we must act quickly and decisively to cut emissions and turn the climate temperature knob down to where the Polar Bear can survive. (7) 2008: ARCTIC SEA ICE IN A DOWNWARD SPIRAL because of positive feedback. Fossil fuels are devastating the Arctic where the volume of sea ice fell to its lowest recorded level to date this year and that reduced ice coverage is causing a non-linear acceleration in the loss of polar ice because there is less ice to reflect sunlight. (8) 2008: THE ARCTIC WILL BE ICE FREE IN SUMMER IN 2008. The unusually low summer sea ice extent in the Arctic in 2007 caused the IPCC to take note and has revise its projection of an ice free Arctic. (9) 2009: Ban Ki-Moon says that he went to the Arctic Ocean and was horrified to see the remains of a glacier that just a few years ago was a majestic mass of ice and that had just collapsed – not slowly melted – just collapsed. He thereby became convinced that the only resolution for the “climate crisis” is a binding emission reduction agreement at the Copenhagen meeting in December 2009. (10) 2009: THE ARCTIC WILL BE ICE FREE IN SUMMER BY THE YEAR 2012. Climate scientists have studied the extreme summer melt of Arctic sea ice in 2007 and found that the summer melt of 2007 was a climate change event and that it implies that the Arctic will be ice free in the summer from 2012 onwards. This is a devastating effect on the planet and our use of fossil fuels is to blame.
  6. CLAIM: Northern Siberia and the Canadian Arctic are now warming three times faster than the rest of the world. In the past decade, Arctic temperatures have increased by nearly 1C. If greenhouse gas emissions stay on the same trajectory, we can expect the north to have warmed by 4C year-round by the middle of the century. RESPONSE: It is true that the Arctic is warming at twice the rate of the rest of the world because of certain atmospheric circulation patterns that transfers heat from the Tropics to the Arctic but the rate of warming is not uniform “year-round”. The warming rate is highest in spring (3.9C per century) and lowest in summer (1.4C per century). The winter months are in the middle at about (2.4C per century). These rates imply a mean annualized rate of (2.57C per century) – about twice the rate of the global mean warming rate of (1.3C per century). Details in a related post: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/06/22/global-warming-1979-2019/ . The middle of the century is 2050 – about 30 years away. At the warming rate of 2.6C per century the Arctic will have warmed by 0.8C at most by mid-century. The 4C forecast requires some clarification in this context.
  7. CLAIM: In the Arctic, the warm summer months melt away ice and the winter snowfall freezes it back. But as the climate warms, the Arctic loses more ice than it gains back. RESPONSE: Yes, sir! Agreed! This is the mechanism of gradual year by year ice loss in a warming climate.
  8. CLAIM: Arctic ice in August 1980: The Greenland Ice Sheet is no longer growing. Instead of gaining new ice every year, it begins to lose roughly 51 billion metric tons annually, discharged into the ocean as meltwater and icebergs. RESPONSE: Yes of course, in a warming climate Greenland will lose some ice on an annual basis and at 51 gigatons per year, that melt will contribute 0.142mm/year to sea level rise and if this loss persists for a few thousand years, the whole of the Greenland Ice Sheet will be gone in about 500,000 years unless the next glaciation cycle of the Quaternary Ice Age intervenes.
  9. CLAIM: August 2010: A chunk of ice four times the size of Manhattan breaks off the Petermann Glacier, causing the ice sheet to retreat 18 kilometers. With little snow falling during winter, Greenland’s ice cap is subjected to record melting which lasts 50 days longer than average. RESPONSE: Taking the height of the World Trade Center as the height, the volume of “the size of Manhattan” is 32.0463 cubic km and a chunk of ice that size weighs 32.0463 gigatons and one that is four times the size of Manhattan weighs 128 gigatons. If this exceptional Manhattan event happens every August, the melting of Greenland will contribute 0.357mm/year to sea level rise and the Greenland Ice sheet will be gone in about 200,000 years. The use of geographical references to denote ice volume is not a good way to communicate the amount of ice that is at issue.
  10. CLAIM: Even if we stop all greenhouse gas emissions tomorrow, Arctic sea ice will continue melting for decades. RESPONSE: The time span implied by decades is not a very long period in in the context of a century of ice melt dynamics and without an AGW climate change implication because of the internal climate variability issue: LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/07/16/the-internal-variability-issue/
  11. CLAIM: There is no facet of Arctic life that remains untouched by the immensity of change here, except perhaps the eternal dance between light and darkness. The Arctic as we know it – a vast icy landscape where reindeer roam, polar bears feast, and waters teem with cod and seals – will soon be frozen only in memory. RESPONSE: There is in fact no facet of human life anywhere on earth that remains untouched by the immensity of the climate in shaping our lives. For example the Holocene – and specifically the Holocene Climate Optimum period – created human civilization and our social structure out of animal-like humans who lived isolated in caves: LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2018/08/20/the-holocene-optimum-period-a-bibliography/ and it was the climate change of the Medieval Warm Period that took the Norsemen settle in Greenland: LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2019/04/02/mwp/ and the Little Ice Age that killed those settlers and ended the Viking settlement of Greenland LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2018/07/19/liaclimatologybibliography/ Climate has an enormous impact on our lives and this impact is what drives the climate superstitions that have been with us all though human history and still is, as evidenced in this Guardian assessment of climate change: LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2018/08/03/confirmationbias/
  12. CLAIM: A new Nature Climate Change study predicts that summer sea ice floating on the surface of the Arctic Ocean could disappear entirely by 2035. Until relatively recently, scientists didn’t think we would reach this point until 2050 at the earliest. Reinforcing this finding, last month Arctic sea ice reached its second-lowest extent in the , the 41-year satellite record. RESPONSE: As seen in ITEM#5 above, the “ICE-FREE-ARCTIC” being forecast here has a long and sordid history in climate science. This kind of obsession with fear mongering does not speak well of what is often advertised as “THE SCIENCE” that in and of itself should validate everything climate scientists say. LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2019/11/18/the-ice-free-arctic-obsession-of-agw/ .
  13. CLAIM; The latest models are basically showing that no matter what emissions scenario we follow, we’re going to lose summer sea ice cover before the middle of the century. says Julienne Stroeve, a senior research scientist at the US National Snow and Ice Data Center. “Even if we keep warming to less than 2C, it’s still enough to lose that summer sea ice in some years. RESPONSE: The strange and failed obsession of climate science with the ice free Arctic prediction continues unabated. It is odd to the point of bizarre. LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2019/11/18/the-ice-free-arctic-obsession-of-agw/
  14. CLAIM: At outposts in the Canadian Arctic, permafrost is thawing 70 years sooner than predicted. Roads are buckling. Houses are sinking. In Siberia, giant craters pockmark the tundra as temperatures soar, hitting 100F (38C) in the town of Verkhoyansk in July. RESPONSE: An odd falsehood that seems to have become institutionalized in climate science is that failed forecasts are celebrated as being even more right than previously thought if the data are scarier than the forecast. That the permafrost forecast was off by 70 years does not mean that it was even more right than previously thought. It means that the forecast was wrong. The biased interpretation of the error is evidence of a significant level of confirmation bias in climate science: LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/06/29/diffenbaugh-2017-extreme-weather-of-climate-change/ .
  15. CLAIM: The soaring heat leads to raging wildfires, now common in hotter and drier parts of the Arctic. In recent summers, infernos have torn across the tundra of Sweden, Alaska, and Russia, destroying native vegetation. RESPONSE: These are time and geography constrained climate events that have no interpretation in terms of anthropogenic global warming. LINK#1: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/07/19/agw-heat-wave-in-siberia/ LINK#2: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/07/13/siberian-heat-larming-climate-scientists/ LINK#3: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/07/16/the-internal-variability-issue/
  16. CLAIM: This hurts the millions of reindeer and caribou who eat mosses, lichens, and stubbly grasses. Disastrous rain-on-snow events have also increased in frequency, locking the ungulates’ preferred forage foods in ice; between 2013 and 2014, an estimated 61,000 animals died on Russia’s Yamal peninsula due to mass starvation during a rainy winter. Overall, the global population of reindeer and caribou has declined by 56% in the last 20 years. RESPONSE: Climate science has determined that that global warming is killing off the caribou because warming causes freezing rain in the calving season and that makes it hard for calving caribou to feed. The data presented show a population decline for the caribou. However, as shown in a related post, the decline in caribou population is not sustained leading to a very different interpretation of the same data. LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2019/03/09/caribou/ .
  17. CLAIM: Such losses have devastated the indigenous people whose culture and livelihoods are interwoven with the plight of the reindeer and caribou. Inuit use all parts of the caribou: sinew for thread, hide for clothing, antlers for tools, and flesh for food. In Europe and Russia, the Sami people herd thousands of reindeer across the tundra. Warmer winters have forced many of them to change how they conduct their livelihoods, for example by providing supplemental feed for their reindeer. Yet some find opportunities in the crisis. Melting ice has made the region’s abundant mineral deposits and oil and gas reserves more accessible by ship. China is heavily investing in the increasingly ice-free Northern Sea Route over the top of Russia, which promises to cut shipping times between the Far East and Europe by 10 to 15 days. The Northwest Passage through the Canadian Arctic Archipelago could soon yield another shortcut. And in Greenland, vanishing ice is unearthing a wealth of uranium, zinc, gold, iron and rare earth elements. In 2019, Donald Trump claimed he was considering buying Greenland from Denmark. Never before has the Arctic enjoyed such political relevance. Tourism has boomed, at least until the Covid shutdown, with throngs of wealthy visitors drawn to this exotic frontier in hopes of capturing the perfect selfie under the aurora borealis. Between 2006 and 2016, the impact from winter tourism increased by over 600%. The city of Tromsø, Norway, dubbed the “Paris of the north”, welcomed just 36,000 tourists in the winter of 2008-09. By 2016, that number had soared to 194,000. Underlying such interest, however, is an unspoken sentiment: that this might be the last chance people have to experience the Arctic as it once was. RESPONSE: The Arctic is the home of the indigenous Inuit, a proud, tough, and highly talented race of survivors that have lived, survived, and prospered in the Arctic since the icy cold of the last glaciation, through the Younger Dryas cooling, through 8200, 6300, 4700, 2700, 1550 and 550YBP cold periods and the the extreme warming, ice melt, and sea level rise of the Holocene Climate Optimum, the Minoan warm period that destroyed the Late Bronze Age civilization, the Medieval warm period that brought the Norsemen to Greenland, and the Little Ice Age that killed off the Norsemen in Greenland. Through it all the Inuit have survived, thrived, grown, and prospered. And they are still here today surviving wonderfully as only they know how. It is an extreme form of racism for the European races to play the role of caretakers of these incredible Arctic people. They don’t need the Europeans to feel sorry for them or to take care of them and to help them to survive global warming. They certainly don’t need Europeans to meddle in Arctic affairs and to keep them from the economic bonanza off the Northwest Passage.
  18. CLAIM: Stopping climate change in the Arctic requires an enormous reduction in the emission of fossil fuels, and the world has made scant progress despite obvious urgency. Moreover, many greenhouse gases persist in our atmosphere for years. Even if we were to cease all emissions tomorrow, it would take decades for those gases to dissolve and for temperatures to stabilize (though some recent research suggests the span could be shorter). In the interim, more ice, permafrost, and animals would be lost. It’s got to be both a reduction in emissions and carbon capture at this point, explains Stroeve. “We need to take out what we’ve already put in there. Other strategies may help mitigate the damage to the ecosystem and its inhabitants. The Yupik village of Newtok in northern Alaska, where thawing permafrost has eroded the ground underfoot, will be relocated by 2023. Conservation groups are pushing for the establishment of several marine conservation areas throughout the High Arctic to protect struggling wildlife. In 2018, 10 parties signed an agreement that would prohibit commercial fishing in the high seas of the central Arctic Ocean for at least 16 years. And governments must weigh further regulations on new shipping and extractive activities in the region. The Arctic of the past is already gone. Following our current climate trajectory, it will be impossible to return to the conditions we saw just three decades ago. Yet many experts believe there’s still time to act, to preserve what once was, if the world comes together to prevent further harm and conserve what remains of this unique and fragile ecosystem. RESPONSE: That fossil fuel emissions change atmospheric composition and that climate action can be taken to reduce the rate of rise in atmospheric CO2 concentration and thereby to attenuate the rate of warming and sea level rise are at the foundation of climate science. Yet, no empirical evidence has been provided by climate science for these relationships and none is found in the data: LINK#1: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/09/23/emission-reduction-atmospheric-co2/ LINK#2: https://tambonthongchai.com/2018/12/14/climateaction/ LINK#3: https://tambonthongchai.com/2019/02/20/csiroslr/

THE PROUD AND TOUGH NATIVE PEOPLES OF THE ARCTIC

Arctic Indigenous Peoples - Arctic Centre, University of Lapland
Arctic Native Peoples on the Edge - The Solutions Journal
Arctic People | National Snow and Ice Data Center
Inuit - Wikipedia

CLIMATE SCIENTIST EXPLAINS THE SCIENTIFIC MEANING OF “DEATH SPIRAL” IN THE SCIENCE OF CLIMATE SCIENCE.

A HISTORICAL CONTEXT OF THE CLIMATE MOVEMENT | Thongchai Thailand
A HISTORICAL CONTEXT OF THE CLIMATE MOVEMENT | Thongchai Thailand
The leader in renewable energy I Siemens Gamesa
Tired Earth | Health and Environmental Effects of Ozone Layer Depletion
OZONE DEPLETION PART-3 | Thongchai Thailand
Jamal Munshi: The United Nations: An Unconstrained Bureaucracy |  Tallbloke's Talkshop

Comment: The UN is unfit for the 21st century – The Update
António Guterres: "I hope this health crisis will serve as a warning" -  World Today News

HOW TO SELL JUNK SCIENCE

Asset allocation specialists are the new snake oil salesmen | Financial  Times

Climate Action Junk Science

  1. Will climate action attenuate the rise of atmospheric CO2 concentration?
    https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/09/23/emission-reduction-atmospheric-co2/
  2. Will climate action attenuate the rate of warming?https://tambonthongchai.com/2018/12/14/climateaction/
  3. Will climate action attenuate the rate of sea level rise?https://tambonthongchai.com/2019/02/20/csiroslr/
  4. How did they know they could sell us junk science and get away with it? They knew they could sell us junk science because it was so easy to sell us the ozone depletion and ozone holes junk.
    https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/10/10/mario-molina-1943-2020/
  5. PLANETARY ENVIRONMENTALISM: Are humans now in charge of the planet and the managers of nature? https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/09/22/things-eco-nuts-worry-about/
  6. THE ANTHROPOCENE OF CLIMATE SCIENCE: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/10/04/james-burke-the-science-guy/
  7. ON THE MAGICAL POWERS OF CONFIRMATION BIAS IN SCIENCE: https://tambonthongchai.com/2018/08/03/confirmationbias/

HUMANS AS LORDS OF THE PLANET AND MANAGERS OF NATURE

What if Adam and Eve didn't sin? - Quora

CONCLUSION: The climate change movement is really the climate action movement and the climate action movement is really the old anti fossil fuel movement of the 1960s that never really died and has resurfaced having invented a new rationale in terms of climate change.
https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/03/23/anti-fossil-fuel-activism-disguised-as-climate-science/

How to spot a snake oil salesman. — The Fitness Skeptic
snake oil salesman history - Google Search | Anta, Ideias
ANTONIO GUTTERAS

Climate change and the ocean
Ocean Heat Content And The Importance Of The Deep Ocean
Climate change in deep oceans could be seven times faster by middle of  century, report says | Oceans | The Guardian
A wild name, and an amazing, vast, new marine sanctuary · A Humane World

THIS POST IS A CRITICAL REVIEW OF A PHYS.ORG ARTICLE ON AN OCEAN WARMING EFFECT OF ANTHROPOGENIC GLOBAL WARMING.

LINK TO THE ARTICLE: https://phys.org/news/2020-10-deep-sea-slowly.html

PART-1: WHAT THE PHYS.ORG ARTICLE SAYS

The deep sea is slowly warming: by American Geophysical Union

New research reveals temperatures in the deep sea fluctuate more than scientists previously thought and a warming trend is now detectable at the bottom of the ocean. In a new study in AGU’s journal Geophysical Research Letters, researchers analyzed a decade of hourly temperature recordings from moorings anchored at four depths in the Atlantic Ocean’s Argentine Basin off the coast of Uruguay. The depths represent a range around the average ocean depth of 3,682 meters, with the shallowest at 1,360 meters and the deepest at 4,757 meters. They found all sites exhibited a warming trend of 0.02 to 0.04 degrees Celsius per decade between 2009 and 2019, a significant warming trend in the deep sea where temperature fluctuations are typically measured in thousandths of a degree.

According to the study authors, this increase is consistent with warming trends in the shallow ocean associated with anthropogenic climate change, but more research is needed to understand what is driving rising temperatures in the deep ocean.

In years past, everybody used to assume the deep ocean was quiescent. There was no motion. There were no changes but each time we go look we find that the ocean is more complex than we thought. The challenge of measuring the deep.

Researchers today are monitoring the top 2,000 meters of the ocean more closely than ever before, in large part due to an international program called the Global Ocean Observing System. Devices called Argo floats that sink and rise in the upper ocean, bobbing along in ocean currents, provide a rich trove of continuous data on temperature and salinity.

The deep sea, however, is difficult to access and expensive to study. Scientists typically take its temperature using ships that lower an instrument to the seafloor just once every ten years. This means scientists’ understanding of the day-to-day changes in the bottom half of the ocean lag far behind their knowledge of the surface.

NOAA is carrying out a rare long-term study at the bottom of the ocean, and the four devices they had moored at the bottom of the Argentine Basin were collecting information on ocean currents and a temperature sensor was built into the instrument’s pressure sensor used to study currents and it had collected temperature data for the entirety of their study period.

“So we went back and we calibrated all of our hourly data from these instruments and put together what is essentially a continuous 10-year-long hourly record of temperature one meter off the seafloor,” Meinen said.

Dynamic depths

The researchers found at the two shallower depths of 1,360 and 3,535 meters (4,460 feet and 11,600 feet), temperatures fluctuated roughly monthly by up to a degree Celsius. At depths below 4,500 meters (14,760 feet), temperature fluctuations were more minute, but changes followed an annual pattern, indicating seasons still have a measurable impact far below the ocean surface. The average temperature at all four locations went up over the course of the decade, but the increase of about 0.02 degrees Celsius per decade was only statistically significant at depths of over 4,500 meters.

According to the authors, these results demonstrate that scientists need to take the temperature of the deep ocean at least once a year to account for these fluctuations and pick up on meaningful long-term trends. In the meantime, others around the world who have used the same moorings to study deep sea ocean currents could analyze their own data and compare the temperature trends of other ocean basins.

“There are a number of studies around the globe where this kind of data has been collected, but it’s never been looked at,” Meinen said. “I’m hoping that this is going to lead to a reanalysis of a number of these historical datasets to try and see what we can say about deep ocean temperature variability.”

A better understanding of temperature in the deep sea could have implications that reach beyond the ocean. Because the world’s oceans absorb so much of the world’s heat, learning about the ocean’s temperature trends can help researchers better understand temperature fluctuations in the atmosphere as well.

“We’re trying to build a better Global Ocean Observing System so that in the future, we’re able to do better weather predictions,” Meinen said. “At the moment we can’t give really accurate seasonal forecasts, but hopefully as we get better predictive capabilities, we’ll be able to say to farmers in the Midwest that it’s going to be a wet spring and you may want to plant your crops accordingly.”

OTHER REPORTS OF THIS RESEARCH

Deep diving robots find warming accelerating in South Pacific Ocean waters
More information: Christopher S. Meinen et al, Observed Ocean Bottom Temperature Variability at Four Sites in the Northwestern Argentine Basin: Evidence of Decadal Deep/Abyssal Warming Amidst Hourly to Interannual Variability During 2009–2019, Geophysical Research Letters (2020). DOI: 10.1029/2020GL089093. Journal information: Geophysical Research Letters
Provided by American Geophysical Union. Facebook. Twitter.

PART-2: CRITICAL COMMENTARY

It is generally recognized that the the Antarctic Ocean is subject to significant geothermal heat that plays a role in the ice melt events and also explains the relative warmth of the Deep Circumpolar Current in that region. The South Atlantic and specifically the Argentine Basin is located immediately north of this geologically active area and it is known to be geologically active such that the observed abyssal warming of 0.02 to 0.04C over a decade can be explained as a geological event. A relevant bibliography is provided below that generally supports this evaluation.

The additional consideration is that a brief decadal warming event in the geographically limited region of the Argentine Basin of the Southwest Atlantic must be understood as an internal earth system climate variability that does not have an interpretation in terms of anthropogenic global warming and climate change that relates to long term trends in global mean temperature and not to temperature events particularly so when they are geographically constrained.

Under these conditions, it is not possible to understand the localized decadal warming event in a geologically active region in terms of anthropogenic global warming. LINK TO RELATED POST ON INTERNAL CLIMATE VARIABILITY: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/07/16/the-internal-variability-issue/

RELEVANT BIBLIOGRAPHY: GEOLOGICAL FEATURES OF THE ARGENTINE BASIN.

  1. Hofmann, M., and M. A. Morales Maqueda. “Geothermal heat flux and its influence on the oceanic abyssal circulation and radiocarbon distribution.” Geophysical Research Letters 36.3 (2009). Geothermal heating of abyssal waters is rarely regarded as a significant driver of the large‐scale oceanic circulation. Numerical experiments with the Ocean General Circulation Model POTSMOM‐1.0 suggest, however, that the impact of geothermal heat flux on deep ocean circulation is not negligible. Geothermal heating contributes to an overall warming of bottom waters by about 0.4°C, decreasing the stability of the water column and enhancing the formation rates of North Atlantic Deep Water and Antarctic Bottom Water by 1.5 Sv (10%) and 3 Sv (33%), respectively. Increased influx of Antarctic Bottom Water leads to a radiocarbon enrichment of Pacific Ocean waters, increasing Δ14C values in the deep North Pacific from −269‰ when geothermal heating is ignored in the model, to −242‰ when geothermal heating is included. A stronger and deeper Atlantic meridional overturning cell causes warming of the North Atlantic deep western boundary current by up to 1.5°C. FULL TEXT; https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2008GL036078
  2. Purkey, Sarah G., and Gregory C. Johnson. “Warming of global abyssal and deep Southern Ocean waters between the 1990s and 2000s: Contributions to global heat and sea level rise budgets.” Journal of Climate 23.23 (2010): 6336-6351.: Abyssal global and deep Southern Ocean temperature trends are quantified between the 1990s and 2000s to assess the role of recent warming of these regions in global heat and sea level budgets. The authors 1) compute warming rates with uncertainties along 28 full-depth, high-quality hydrographic sections that have been occupied two or more times between 1980 and 2010; 2) divide the global ocean into 32 basins, defined by the topography and climatological ocean bottom temperatures; and then 3) estimate temperature trends in the 24 sampled basins. The three southernmost basins show a strong statistically significant abyssal warming trend, with that warming signal weakening to the north in the central Pacific, western Atlantic, and eastern Indian Oceans. Eastern Atlantic and western Indian Ocean basins show statistically insignificant abyssal cooling trends. Excepting the Arctic Ocean and Nordic seas, the rate of abyssal (below 4000 m) global ocean heat content change in the 1990s and 2000s is equivalent to a heat flux of 0.027 (±0.009) W m−2 applied over the entire surface of the earth. Deep (1000–4000 m) warming south of the Subantarctic Front of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current adds 0.068 (±0.062) W m−2. The abyssal warming produces a 0.053 (±0.017) mm yr−1 increase in global average sea level and the deep warming south of the Subantarctic Front adds another 0.093 (±0.081) mm yr−1. Thus, warming in these regions, ventilated primarily by Antarctic Bottom Water, accounts for a statistically significant fraction of the present global energy and sea level budgets. LINK TO FULL TEXT; https://journals.ametsoc.org/jcli/article/23/23/6336/32723
  3. Roden, Gunnar I. “Thermohaline fronts and baroclinic flow in the Argentine Basin during the austral spring of 1984.” Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans 91.C4 (1986): 5075-5093. Thermohaline fronts, structure, and baroclinic flow in the central Argentine basin are investigated on the basis of a 1984 field experiment. The Brazil Current, after initial overshoot, meanders northeastward toward subtropical latitudes with speeds of the order of 0.3 m s−1. The meanders have a wavelength of about 400 km and an amplitude of 200 km. Brazil Current signatures, as expressed by dynamic height, are recognizable to depths of several kilometers. The Brazil and Antarctic Circumpolar currents do not meet in the central Argentine basin to form common eastward flow, as was expressed in classical descriptions, but instead diverge sharply near 42°W. This is seen also in the trajectories of satellite‐tracked drifters. The region between the currents is marked by cyclonic and anticyclonic eddies. Strong thermohaline fronts accompany the boundaries of these currents. The Brazil Current and sub-Antarctic fronts are well separated in the central basin. Brazil Current density fronts are deep and extend from the surface to 3000 m, while the associated temperature and salinity fronts are intermittent over this depth interval. Temperature fronts virtually vanish at the interface between the Antarctic Intermediate Water and the North Atlantic Deep Water. Salinity fronts reverse their polarity beneath the core of the former. At depths between 3000 and 4000 m, abyssal temperature and salinity fronts are observed which are largely density compensating. At the subantarctic and cold core eddy fronts, horizontal temperature and salinity gradients in the upper mixed layer compensate each other in such a way that no density front is found. Deep subpycnocline mixed layers occur in the poleward lobes of the Brazil Current during austral spring, suggestive of previous winter convection.
  4. Kouketsu, Shinya, et al. “Deep ocean heat content changes estimated from observation and reanalysis product and their influence on sea level change.” Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans 116.C3 (2011). We calculated basin‐scale and global ocean decadal temperature change rates from the 1990s to the 2000s for waters below 3000 m. Large temperature increases were detected around Antarctica, and a relatively large temperature increase was detected along the northward path of Circumpolar Deep Water in the Pacific. The global heat content (HC) change estimated from the temperature change rates below 3000 m was 0.8 × 1022 J decade−1; a value that cannot be neglected for precise estimation of the global heat balance. We reproduced the observed temperature changes in the deep ocean using a data assimilation system and examined virtual observations in the reproduced data field to evaluate the uncertainty of the HC changes estimated from the actual temporally and spatially sparse observations. From the analysis of the virtual observations, it is shown that the global HC increase below 3000 m during recent decades can be detected using the available observation system of periodic revisits to the same sampling sections, although the uncertainty is large. LINK TO FULL TEXT; https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2010JC006464
  5. Piecuch, Christopher G., et al. “Sensitivity of contemporary sea level trends in a global ocean state estimate to effects of geothermal fluxes.” Ocean Modelling 96 (2015): 214-220. Geothermal fluxes constitute a sizable fraction of the present-day Earth net radiative imbalance and corresponding ocean heat uptake. Model simulations of contemporary sea level that impose a geothermal flux boundary condition are becoming increasingly common. To quantify the impact of geothermal fluxes on model estimates of contemporary (1993–2010) sea level changes, two ocean circulation model experiments are compared. The two simulations are based on a global ocean state estimate, produced by the Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean (ECCO) consortium, and differ only with regard to whether geothermal forcing is applied as a boundary condition. Geothermal forcing raises the global-mean sea level trend by 0.11 mm yr−1 in the perturbation experiment by suppressing a cooling trend present in the baseline solution below 2000 m. The imposed forcing also affects regional sea level trends. The Southern Ocean is particularly sensitive. In this region, anomalous heat redistribution due to geothermal fluxes results in steric height trends of up to ± 1 mm yr−1 in the perturbation experiment relative to the baseline simulation. Analysis of a passive tracer experiment suggests that the geothermal input itself is transported by horizontal diffusion, resulting in more thermal expansion over deeper ocean basins. Thermal expansion in the perturbation simulation gives rise to bottom pressure increase over shallower regions and decrease over deeper areas relative to the baseline run, consistent with mass redistribution expected for deep ocean warming. These results elucidate the influence of geothermal fluxes on sea level rise and global heat budgets in model simulations of contemporary ocean circulation and climate.
  6. Purkey, Sarah G., and Gregory C. Johnson. “Antarctic Bottom Water warming and freshening: Contributions to sea level rise, ocean freshwater budgets, and global heat gain.” Journal of Climate 26.16 (2013): 6105-6122. Freshening and warming of Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW) between the 1980s and 2000s are quantified, assessing the relative contributions of water-mass changes and isotherm heave. The analysis uses highly accurate, full-depth, ship-based, conductivity–temperature–depth measurements taken along repeated oceanographic sections around the Southern Ocean. Fresher varieties of AABW are present within the South Pacific and south Indian Oceans in the 2000s compared to the 1990s, with the strongest freshening in the newest waters adjacent to the Antarctic continental slope and rise indicating a recent shift in the salinity of AABW produced in this region. Bottom waters in the Weddell Sea exhibit significantly less water-mass freshening than those in the other two southern basins. However, a decrease in the volume of the coldest, deepest waters is observed throughout the entire Southern Ocean. This isotherm heave causes a salinification and warming on isobaths from the bottom up to the shallow potential temperature maximum. The water-mass freshening of AABW in the Indian and Pacific Ocean sectors is equivalent to a freshwater flux of 73 ± 26 Gt yr−1, roughly half of the estimated recent mass loss of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. Isotherm heave integrated below 2000 m and south of 30°S equates to a net heat uptake of 34 ± 14 TW of excess energy entering the deep ocean from deep volume loss of AABW and 0.37 ± 0.15 mm yr−1 of sea level rise from associated thermal expansion. LINK to Full Text: https://journals.ametsoc.org/jcli/article/26/16/6105/33911

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