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Archive for September 2020

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Hurricane Katrina | Damage, Deaths, Aftermath, & Facts | Britannica
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Thomas Knutson
TOM KNUTSON, NOAA

THIS POST IS A CRITICAL REVIEW OF A RESEARCH PAPER PUBLISHED IN IOPSCIENCE IN 2020 THAT CLAIMS TO HAVE FOUND AN IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON TROPICAL CYCLONES. LINK https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ab9e1f

CITATION: An increase in global trends of tropical cyclone translation speed since 1982 and its physical causes. Sung-Hun Kim1,2, Il-Ju Moon1 and Pao-Shin Chu2. Published 2 September 2020 • © 2020 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd. Environmental Research Letters, Volume 15, Number 9

ABSTRACT: In this study, the causes of the increase in global mean tropical cyclone translation speed (TCTS) in the post-satellite era were investigated. Analysis reveals that the global-mean TCTS increased by 0.31 km h−1 per decade over the last 36 years, but the steering flow controlling the local TCTS decreased by −0.24 km h−1 per decade in the major tropical cyclone (TC) passage regions. These values correspond to a change of 5.9% and −5.6% during the analysis period for the mean TCTS and steering flow, respectively. The inconsistency between these two related variables (TCTS and steering flows) is caused by relative TC frequency changes according to basin and latitude. The TCTS is closely related to the latitude of the TC position, which shows a significant difference in mean TCTS between basins. That is, the increased global-mean TCTS is mainly attributed to the following: (1) an increase (4.5% per decade) in the relative proportion of the North Atlantic TCs in terms of global TC’s position points (this region has the fastest mean TCTS among all basins); and (2) the poleward shift of TC activities. These two effects account for 76.8% and 25.8% of the observed global-mean TCTS trend, respectively, and thus overwhelm those of the slowing steering flow related to the weakening of large-scale tropical circulation, which leads to a global mean increase in TCTS. Given that TC activity in the North Atlantic is closely related to the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation and a poleward shift of TC exposure is likely induced by global warming, the recent increase in the global-mean TCTS is a joint outcome of both natural variations and anthrophonic effects. FULL TEXT PDF: https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ab9e1f/pdf

CRITICAL COMMENTARY

  1. The expected impacts of anthropogenic global warming on tropical cyclones were derived from AGW theory using a large array of climate model runs by Thomas Knutson and more than a dozen co-authors that included Kerry Emanuel, Chris Landsea, James Kossin, Gabriel Vecchi, Phillip Klotzbach, and other notable researchers in this field. See for example: Knutson, Thomas R., John L. McBride, Johnny Chan, Kerry Emanuel, Greg Holland, Chris Landsea, Isaac Held, James P. Kossin, A. K. Srivastava, and Masato Sugi. “Tropical cyclones and climate change.” Nature geoscience 3, no. 3 (2010): 157-163. … Also Walsh, Kevin JE, John L. McBride, Philip J. Klotzbach, Sethurathinam Balachandran, Suzana J. Camargo, Greg Holland, Thomas R. Knutson et al. “Tropical cyclones and climate change.” Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change 7, no. 1 (2016): 65-89.
  2. What we find in these studies is the theoretical basis for the impact of AGW on tropical cyclones that serves as the starting point for empirical research in this field in the form of formulating the hypothesis to be tested against observations. In summary, this theoretical basis derived from the cited works above is as follows: “Tropical cyclones and climate change.” Nature geoscience 3.3 (2010): 157-163. In the paper, Tom Knutson spells out exactly what climate science claims in terms of the impact of AGW climate change on tropical cyclones with climate model predictions of the effect of rising SST on tropical cyclones. His main points are as follows: (1) Globally averaged intensity of tropical cyclones will rise as AGW increases SST. Models predict globally averaged intensity increase of 2% to 11% by 2100. (2). Models predict falling globally averaged frequency of tropical cyclones with frequency decreasing 6%-34% by 2100. (3). The globally averaged frequency of “most intense tropical cyclones” should increase as a result of AGW. The intensity of tropical cyclones is measured as the ACE (Accumulated Cyclone Energy). (4). Models predict increase in precipitation within a 100 km radius of the storm center. A precipitation rise of 20% is projected for the year 2100. (5) Extremely high variance in tropical cyclone data at an annual time scale suggests longer, perhaps a decadal time scale which in turn greatly reduces statistical power. (6) Model projections for individual cyclone basins show large differences and conflicting results. Thus, no testable implication can be derived for studies of individual basins.
  3. As shown in related posts, tests for these hypotheses have mostly failed: LINK#1: https://tambonthongchai.com/2018/11/28/trends-in-tropical-cyclone-activity/ LINK#2: https://tambonthongchai.com/2019/03/22/ace-sst/ LINK#3: https://tambonthongchai.com/2019/04/04/1737/ LINK#4: https://tambonthongchai.com/2019/08/01/tropical-cyclones-climate-change/ LINK#5: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/03/04/agwcyclones/
  4. An apparent success in this line of research that is still cited is the Hurricane Katrina paper by Kerry Emanuel on the destructiveness of hurricanes. The paper found that AGW was making Hurricanes of the North Atlantic Basin more destructive. However, as shown in a related post on this site, this paper suffers from fatal statistical errors and the findings are therefore discarded on this basis. Emanuel also violated the Knutson etal principle against restricting the study to selected cyclone basins. LINK TO THE EMANUEL PAPER https://tambonthongchai.com/2018/09/18/climate-change-hurricanes/
  5. We also find in the Emanuel paper, and in many similar papers, a violation of the Knutson 2010 principle that tropical cyclone studies in the context of climate change must include all five basins in the for of a bias for the North Atlantic Basin to the exclusion of the other five tropical cyclone basins LINK https://tambonthongchai.com/2019/11/14/hurricane-obsession/
  6. Within the strict guidelines of the Knutson paper and the principles of empirical research and of statistics, the effort by climate science to relate the destruction of tropical cyclones to climate change has failed. Yet there remains a yearning in climate science for such a relationship. A possible reason for that yearning is that the dramatic destruction of tropical cyclones, as for example by Hurricane Katrina, provides a convincing argument for climate action and against fossil fuels.
  7. This line of research therefore persists but the hypotheses to be tested no longer bears a relationship to the original theoretical basis by way of SST whereby AGW increases SST and higher SST increases cyclone energy. Such new tropical cyclone hypotheses, as the one under review here, are apparently derived from whatever pattern can be found in the data.
  8. As an example, we describe in a related post LINK https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/05/06/tropical-cyclones-climate-change-2/ , a study that found that climate change is changing the global pattern of tropical cyclones with the finding that since 1980, cyclone activity has tempered and decreased in the South Indian and West Pacific basins and increased in the East Pacific and North Atlantic basins. This pattern was then stated as the hypothesis to be tested in a new empirical work on tropical cyclones in which they found that climate change had caused a shift in the global pattern of tropical cyclone activity with a weakening in the South Indian and West Pacific basins and a strengthening in the North Atlantic and East Pacific basins {Detected climatic change in global distribution of tropical cyclones, Hiroyuki Murakami etal, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences May 2020, 201922500; DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1922500117}
  9. There are three issues with this study that nullifies the findings. First, it is not possible to test a hypothesis with the data used to construct the hypothesis. That is a severe form of circular reasoning called the Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy. The second issue is that causation is assumed simply from a co-occurrence. Co-occurrence does not prove causation. The third issue in this research is that it is entirely unrelated to the only theoretical format for the study of tropical cyclones in the context of climate change as laid out in Knutson et al 2010. The findings are rejected on this basis.
  10. The paper under review in this post, {An increase in global trends of tropical cyclone translation speed since 1982 and its physical causes. Sung-Hun Kim1,2, Il-Ju Moon1 and Pao-Shin Chu2, 2020} is rejected on the same basis. The hypothesis to be tested is not derived from theory but from the data and then the same data are used to test the hypothesis. Also, the hypothesis is unrelated to Knutson etal 2010 and no source is cited for the theoretical basis of this hypothesis.
  11. The essential finding in these kinds of studies is that the authors found a pattern in the data with the implication that this pattern is relevant in the study of climate change impacts on tropical cyclones and that it should therefore be considered a climate change impact. The research methodology violates research norms and the findings are rejected on that basis.
  12. More on such AGW impact research: LINK https://tambonthongchai.com/2018/06/21/climate-change-impacts1/

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KERRY
Thomas Knutson
A third of Himalayan ice cap doomed, finds report | Environment | The  Guardian
Report: One-Third of Himalayan Glaciers Could Melt by 2100 | Time
Himalaya glaciers are melting twice as fast as last century - CNN
Stark warning on melting Himalayan glaciers | News | DW | 04.02.2019
Himalayan glaciers melting at alarming rate: study - Global Village Space
Ecozine Film Festival - Rajendra Kumar Pachauri, ex presidente del Grupo  Intergubernamental de Expertos sobre el Cambio Climático y Premio Nobel de  la Paz 2007, ha muerto hoy en Nueva Delhi. Y

THIS POST IS A CRITICAL REVIEW OF A MEDIA ARTICLE PUBLISHED BY THE INDIAN EXPRESS IN SEPTEMBER 2020 WITH THE CLAIM THAT FOSSIL FUELED ANTHROPOGENIC GLOBAL WARMING IS CAUSING HIMALAYAN GLACIERS TO MELT.

PART-1: WHAT THE ARTICLE SAYS: LINK: https://indianexpress.com/article/india/glacier-retreat-in-himalayas-to-cause-water-crisis-study-6601814/

TITLE: Glacier retreat in Himalayas to cause water crisis: study
Studies by ISRO show that approximately 75 per cent of the Himalayan glaciers are retreating at an alarming rate. Written by Esha Roy | New Delhi | September 19, 2020 2:36:17 am

The Himalayan Hindu Kush region has the biggest reserves of water in the form of ice and snow outside the polar regions. A study commissioned by the Observer Research Foundation, published this month, has found that the retreat of glaciers in the Himalayan Hindu Kush region is now affecting the surface water and groundwater availability in the region, and has adversely affected springs a lifeline for the population in hill areas. The study, carried out by Dr Anjal Prakash, IPCC author and Research Director of Bharti Institute of Public Policy at the Indian School of Business in Hyderabad, says that unless a coherent nationwide policy is developed for springs and Himalayan groundwater, villages and towns in the region will face a severe water crisis in coming decades. Studies by ISRO show that approximately 75 per cent of the Himalayan glaciers are retreating at an alarming rate. These retreats will increase the variability of water flows to downstream areas and endanger the sustainability of water use in the earth’s most crowded basins. Receding glaciers would also have an impact on the rates of groundwater recharge in some areas,” says the study. The decline in groundwater due to anticipated decline of glacial meltwater is likely to affect the Ganges basin the most, it says. Glacial decline is closely related to climate change. The study looks at the interconnectivity between this and the groundwater and surface water in the area. There are 5 million springs in the Himalayas and they are showing a decline because of overuse by an increasing population, but also because of retreating glaciers and depleting ground water levels. This is alarming because the populations that live in the upper and middle Himalayas, in villages and even towns, are dependent on spring water. NITI Aayog has set up a committee to look at springs in the Himalayas. But there needs to be a mission mode policy on this,” said Dr Prakash. In many parts of HKH springs are drying up due to prolonged pre-monsoon drought as a result of climate change, threatening the way of life for local communities and downstream areas,” said Dr Vishal Singh, Executive Director of Centre for Ecology Development and Research. The HKH region extends across 3,500 km over eight countries—Afghanistan, Bhutan, Bangladesh, China, India, Myanmar, Nepal and Pakistan. It has the biggest reserves of water in the form of ice and snow outside the polar regions, and is the source of 10 of the largest rivers in Asia. About 1.3 billion people directly depend on the HKH ecosystems, including for irrigation, power and drinking water. For the upper Indus basin, glacier melt may contribute up to 41 per cent of the total runoff, 13 per cent in the upper Ganga basin and 16 per cent in upper Brahmaputra. While initially the retreating glaciers will not have a direct impact on water flow in rivers, except in the Indus where 26 per cent flow is from glacier melt, this is likely to change soon, says the study. Climate warming is affecting hydrological regimes in the HKH region because of factors like changes in seasonal extremes, increased evapotranspiration, and changes in glacier volume. However, the study forecasts that in all three basins, there would be a decrease in snow and a rise in glacier melt by the middle of the century. Initially, there will be an increased amount of meltwater available, but this quantity will decline abruptly as the glacier storage is reduced.

PART-2: CRITICAL COMMENTARY

The fearful climate change topic that anthropogenic global warming is melting Himalayan glaciers is no longer credible in the context of its sordid historical past as evident in the related posts and historical notes below.

RELATED POST #1: LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2010/07/22/himalayan-glaciers-melting-again/ Himalayan glaciers melting again

In: Bangkok Post | global warming | Nature Leave a Comment
Reference: Our beaker is on the boil, Bangkok Post, July 21, 2010. In its 2007 assessment of climate change, the IPCC had warned that global warming is causing Himalayan glaciers to melt and recede and that this process, unchecked by their prescribed intervention of carbon emission reduction, would dry up Asia’s great rivers including the Yellow, the Yangtze, the Mekong, and the Ganges and leave more than a billion people without water (Himalayan glacier melts to hit billions of poor, Bangkok Post, December 7, 2009). Skeptics were quick to point out that glacial meltwater plays a very minor role in feeding these rivers and that therefore the loss of glaciers would not affect these rivers in the way postulated by the IPCC. The IPCC was forced to make a full retraction of this assessment. Soon thereafter climate scientists started looking for rivers in the region that do depend on meltwater from Himalayan glaciers in order to resurrect their glacial-melt agenda. They came up with the Indus and Brahmaputra rivers as possible candidates on the basis of their dependence on glaciers (Our beaker is on the boil, Bangkok Post, July 21, 2010). The Brahmaputra does receive a greater portion of its water from glacial melt than the Ganges, but at about 8% or so it is still too small a fraction to cause the river to “dry up” without glacial meltwater. The Indus, however, is a different story for there the complete loss of glacial meltwater would cause a 24% decline in flow and that would indeed be a catastrophic impact. There is a small problem with geography, however. The source of these rivers is not in the region where the receding glacier is identified. In particular, the source of the Indus is in the Karakoram range where most glaciers – including the Siachen glacier that feeds the Indus – are growing and advancing and certainly not receding. The assertion that global warming will cause the Indus and Brahmaputra to run dry is based on data from the wrong glacier and is therefore not valid. It is yet another example where climate science has attempted to generalize local data when such generalization is not possible. All glaciers in the Himalayas are not receding. Many are advancing and many more are at steady state – neither advancing nor retreating; but you won’t hear about them from climate scientists because they cannot be used to evoke fear and loathing of carbon dioxide. This kind of fear based activism appears to be an integral and important part of the science of climate science.

RELATED POST #2: LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2010/06/17/the-glaciers-in-tibet-are-melting/ Are the glaciers in Tibet melting?

It is reported that global warming is melting the glaciers in the Tibetan plateau and that this process will cause 1/3 of these glaciers to disappear in 10 years (Global warming spells doom for Asia’s rivers, Bangkok Post, June 16, 2010). The article claims that declining water flow in the Yellow and Yangtze rivers, and in particular, the severe decline in Mekong waters in Southeast Asia downstream of China, are due to the loss of glacial mass caused by global warming and that these changes have doomed 1.3 billion people in Asia to death by global warming. No explanation is offered for why an increase in the melt rate of source glaciers decreases water flow in the rivers they feed instead of increasing it. This story first surfaced in mid 2004 with a warning of “ecological catastrophe” from Tibet’s glaciers that have been melting for the last 40 years as a consequence of climate change and that would continue to melt at a rate of 7% per year and reduce water flow in the rivers fed by the glaciers. As to why an increase in the melt rate does not increase the flow rate in the rivers, it was proposed that global warming was again to blame because it was causing all that excess melt water to evaporate. All of these conclusions were derived from the discovery of a number of ice islands that were assumed to have separated from their glaciers. It was predicted that without human intervention in the form of emission reductions 64% of the Tibetan glaciers would be gone by the year 2050 and all of it would vanish by the year 2100. The year 2100 plays a magical role in global warming theory as some kind of end time when the full wrath of every aspect of climate change doom will be realized. Later the same year in 2004, a different story was floated. It said that a visit to the Zepu glacier in Tibet at an elevation of 11,500 feet showed a torrent of melt water gushing out at an alarming rate and all that excess water was forming the headwaters of a river downstream at a much higher elevation due to global warming. Their data showed that 30 years prior to that date, Zepu was 100 yards thicker. They concluded that what is happening to Zepu is happening to all the glaciers in Tibet and what is happening in Tibet is happening globally. Glaciers are melting all over the world due to global warming with the possible exception of Scandinavia. The story changed again in 2006 when it was announced with a great sense of alarm that global warming was causing sandstorms in Beijing by way of melting glaciers and drought. This version of the story came in the aftermath of the unusually large sandstorm event in Beijing in April 2006 that captivated TV audiences and made headlines around the world; but the effort to sell global warming on the back of this tragedy was ineffective as the expansion of the Gobi desert is historical and a well understood phenomenon linked to over-grazing and other land use issues and not due to melting glaciers. However, the story that the Tibetan glaciers were melting and threatening water supplies to a billion people continued to re-appear in 2007 and 2008 but went on a hiatus in 2009 when excessive amounts of black soot deposits were found in core samples of Tibetan glaciers implying that accelerated melting if any was more likely due to soot than to global warming. Yet another deterrent to hyping global warming with Tibetan glaciers came in early 2010 when it was found that the Tibetan glaciers were unique in that they never got very big but varied in size within a range that was not very large with their temperature sensitivity not very significant even going as far back as the last ice age. Also of note is that there is no evidence that water flow in the Yellow, the Yangtze, or the Mekong is declining in the river as a whole. The only evidence presented is that water flow in the Mekong in Laos and Thailand – downstream of China – has declined. In fact it has, but that could not have been caused by a decline in the flow of its headwaters for that would have affected flow in the entire length of the river and not just in a section thousands of miles downstream. The loss of water in the lower Mekong has received a lot of attention in Southeast Asia and it has been a contentious water sharing issue with China which has built a number of dams upstream but it is not a glacial headwaters issue, nor a global warming issue. No one here would take it seriously that the water problem in the Southeast Asian section of the Mekong would be alleviated by lowering carbon dioxide emissions. Consider also that the Mekong is fed mostly by monsoon rains with a water flow that is highly seasonal. Its flow during the monsoon is 30 times its flow during the dry season. Therefore if there were a climate related decrease in the total amount of water it carries it would have to do with the monsoons and not with glaciers. Coincidentally, climate scientists had made the same error in 2007 when they had said that the Ganges river – which receives less than 10% of its water from glacial melt – would dry up because of melting glaciers. So it is curious to find them attempting to revive the Tibetan glacier story yet again in the light of these data and in the heels of their humiliating retraction of similar false alarms about Himalayan glaciers. It is likely that real evidence of global warming catastrophe is hard to come by these days and there is a certain degree of desperation in the global warming camp to keep the issue alive in the media.

Historical note #1: 2009 LINK http://chaamjamal.blogspot.com/2009/12/reference-giant-climate-fraud-in.html Reference: The giant climate fraud in Copenhagen, Bangkok Post, December 13, 2009: An article breathlessly promoting climate catastrophe hysteria claims that “Himalayan ice is rapidly vanishing and will be gone by 2035 so the great rivers of Asia that are born there will shrivel and cease” to provide water to a quarter of humanity (Bangkok Post, December 13, 2009). The preposterous and scientifically impossible idea that the Himalayan ice will be gone by 2035 comes from the IPCC which initially cited a research paper that claimed that Himalayan glaciers will be gone by 2350. As this statement may not have contained the fear factor that climate alarmism needed, the date has been whittled back to 2035 without explanation and Himalayan glaciers have been gradually expanded to include all Himalayan ice. As for rivers running dry, the IPCC specifically targets the Ganges river claiming it will go bone dry by 2035 because of vanishing ice. Kindly note that the Ganges derives less than 5% of its water from glacial melt.

Historical note #2: 2009: LINK: http://chaamjamal.blogspot.com/2009/12/reference-himalayan-glacier-melts-to.html Reference: Himalayan glacier melts to hit billions of poor, Bangkok Post, December 7, 2009: In 2007, the IPCC issued a report citing data on the retreating Gangotri glacier in the Himalayan mountains that showed that the rate of retreat had accelerated from 19 m/yr in 1971 to 34 m/yr in 2001. They extrapolated the observed acceleration forward and wrote that global warming devastation due to carbon dioxide was only a decade away for people who depend on the Ganges and other rivers with headwaters in the Himalayas. This scenario continues to be widely disseminated in the media (Himalayan glacier melts to hit billions of poor, Bangkok Post, December 7, 2009) in spite of more recent data that show that the predicted acceleration has not occurred; with the IPCC going so far as to vilify Indian scientists who who published the data as climate change deniers. In any case, the idea that glacial retreat in the Himalayas will cause the Ganges river to dry up is inconsistent with the observation that the river derives less than 5% of its water from glacial melt. Also of note is that a gradual decline in overall glacial mass worldwide began in 1850 when the Little Ice Age had mysteriously ended well before fossil fuel consumption and atmospheric carbon dioxide rose to levels that the IPCC has identified with man-made global warming. The melt is not a carbon dioxide issue.

Historical note #3: 2010: LINK: http://chaamjamal.blogspot.com/2010/02/unwinding-of-climate-change-hype-once.html The unwinding of the climate change hype. The once feared hype about catastrophe from carbon dioxide emissions is in ruins. The failure of climate science to make their case at the Copenhagen summit came on the heels of leaked emails from climate scientists that exposed a conspiracy to defraud. Even as the IPCC was in damage control mode to defend itself from these charges, there were further even more damaging revelations of scientific fraud and incompetence. It is now known that scores of their claims about devastation from carbon dioxide emissions including their claim that hurricane Katrina was caused by carbon dioxide emissions, that the Amazon forest will be turned into a savanna, that Africa’s agriculture and coral reefs worldwide would be devastated, that the Himalayan glaciers are melting and will be gone in 25 years, that the sea level is rising and inundating atolls in the Pacific, and that the Arctic will be ice free in 15 years, that that glaciers in the Alps and the Andes are in accelerated and alarming decline; are lies. The IPCC is now busy retracting one scary claim after another apparently in secret as the media that once hyped them have gone silent on the retractions. Even so, the credibility and fear factor of climate science are down. Weaknesses in the global warming house of cards are exposed.

Historical note #4: 2010: LINK: http://chaamjamal.blogspot.com/2010/04/reference-800-flee-eruption-bangkok.html In the heydays of the global warming movement glacial advances were ignored and glacial retreats exaggerated and ascribed to carbon dioxide emissions. Geothermal effects were not considered even after it became known that the melt data on the West Antarctic Ice Sheet were taken from a region with volcanic activity under the ice (The fire below, Bangkok Post, April 28, 2008). Now that the volcano under the Eyjafjallajokull has erupted and broken through the ice for all to see, can we expect yet another retraction from the IPCC with respect to retreating glaciers in the Arctic along the lines of their retraction of the state of impending catastrophe about retreating glaciers in the Himalayas?

Historical note #5: 2010: LINK: http://chaamjamal.blogspot.com/2010/04/reference-ice-cap-thaw-may-awaken.html Reference: Ice cap thaw may awaken Icelandic volcanoes, April 17, 2010: Global warming scientists have come up with the idea that carbon dioxide causes volcanic eruptions in Iceland. The argument goes that carbon dioxide emissions cause global warming, global warming in turn causes glaciers in Iceland to melt, and melting glaciers lighten the weight of the ice cap on volcanoes and thereby trigger eruptions (Ice cap thaw may awaken Icelandic volcanoes, April 17, 2010). It is clearly a sinister attempt to ride the media wave created by the volcanic eruption under the Eyjafjallajoekull glacier and to use that fear factor to sell their war against carbon dioxide. The reality is of course very different. Melting glaciers do not cause volcanic eruptions. Volcanic eruptions cause melting glaciers. We now know that much of the glacier melt that the global warming people tried to pin on carbon dioxide was actually caused by geothermal activity under the ice not just in Iceland but also in the West Antarctic Ice Sheet and in Greenland. They have not learned from their prior errors committed while dishonestly overselling the global warming hype and are about to commit Volcano Gate right in the heels of the HimalayaGate retraction.

Historical note #6: 2010: LINK: http://chaamjamal.blogspot.com/2010/04/reference-non-water-flushing-bangkok.html

It has been a long and bitterly cold winter in the Himalayas with record snowfall; and so I was surprised to read in the Bangkok Post that the Mekong River is drying up because “the amount of ice and snow in the Himalayas this winter is less than usual, and much of it melted in January and February” due to global warming (Non-water flushing, Bangkok Post My Home Magazine, April 22, 2010). Has the global warming juggernaut reached such momentum that even actual weather data don’t matter?

Ecozine Film Festival - Rajendra Kumar Pachauri, ex presidente del Grupo  Intergubernamental de Expertos sobre el Cambio Climático y Premio Nobel de  la Paz 2007, ha muerto hoy en Nueva Delhi. Y

Climate change: Greenland ice melt 'is accelerating' - BBC News
Guest post: How the Greenland ice sheet fared in 2017 | Carbon Brief

THIS POST IS A CRITICAL EVALUATION OF RESEARCH FINDINGS REPORTED IN CRYOSPHERE ON THE FUTURE SEA LEVEL RISE CONTRIBUTION OF THE GREENLAND ICE SHEET FOUND IN AN ENSEMBLE OF CLIMATE MODELS. LINK TO SOURCE: https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/14/3071/2020/

CITATION: Research article17 Sep 2020, The future sea-level contribution of the Greenland ice sheet: a multi-model ensemble study of ISMIP6, Heiko Goelzer1,2,32, Sophie Nowicki3, Anthony Payne4, Eric Larour5, Helene Seroussi5, William H. Lipscomb6, Jonathan Gregory7,8, Ayako Abe-Ouchi9, Andrew Shepherd10, Erika Simon3, Cécile Agosta11, Patrick Alexander12,13, Andy Aschwanden14, Alice Barthel15, Reinhard Calov16, Christopher Chambers17, Youngmin Choi18,5, Joshua Cuzzone18, Christophe Dumas11, Tamsin Edwards19, Denis Felikson3, Xavier Fettweis20, Nicholas R. Golledge21, Ralf Greve17,22, Angelika Humbert23,24, Philippe Huybrechts25, Sebastien Le clec’h25, Victoria Lee4, Gunter Leguy6, Chris Little26, Daniel P. Lowry27, Mathieu Morlighem18, Isabel Nias3,28,33, Aurelien Quiquet11, Martin Rückamp23, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel5, Donald A. Slater29,34, Robin S. Smith7, Fiamma Straneo29, Lev Tarasov30, Roderik van de Wal1,31, and Michiel van den Broeke1

ABSTRACT: The Greenland ice sheet is one of the largest contributors to global mean sea-level rise today and is expected to continue to lose mass as the Arctic continues to warm. The two predominant mass loss mechanisms are increased surface meltwater run-off and mass loss associated with the retreat of marine-terminating outlet glaciers. In this paper we use a large ensemble of Greenland ice sheet models forced by output from a representative subset of the CMIP5 global climate models to project ice sheet changes and sea-level rise contributions over the 21st century. The simulations are part of the Ice Sheet Model Inter-comparison Project for CMIP6. We estimate the sea-level contribution together with uncertainties due to future climate forcing, ice sheet model formulations and ocean forcing for the two greenhouse gas concentration scenarios RCP8.5 and RCP2.6. The results indicate that the Greenland ice sheet will continue to lose mass in both scenarios until 2100, with contributions of 90±50 and 32±17 mm to sea-level rise for RCP8.5 and RCP2.6, respectively.

The largest mass loss is expected from the south-west of Greenland, which is governed by surface mass balance changes, continuing what is already observed today. Because the contributions are calculated against an unforced control experiment, these numbers do not include any committed mass loss, i.e. mass loss that would occur over the coming century if the climate forcing remained constant. Under RCP8.5 forcing, ice sheet model uncertainty explains an ensemble spread of 40 mm, while climate model uncertainty and ocean forcing uncertainty account for a spread of 36 and 19 mm, respectively. Apart from those formally derived uncertainty ranges, the largest gap in our knowledge is about the physical understanding and implementation of the calving process, i.e. the interaction of the ice sheet with the ocean.

LINK TO THE FULL TEXT OF THIS PAPER: https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/14/3071/2020/

CRITICAL COMMENTARY

It is noted that the sea level rise from Greenland ice sheet melt is forecast for the year 2100 for RCP8.5 business as usual with no climate action as a 90% confidence interval of 40 to 140 mm with the range of 100mm derived as a 95% confidence interval from a mean of 90mm and a standard deviation of 50mm. Similarly, the sea level rise range for RCP2.6 is reported as 45mm to 49mm derived from a mean of 32 and a standard deviation of 17. RCP8.5 represents “business as usual” meaning that no climate action is taken. RCP2.6 represents the result of climate action.

The difference is the effect of climate action, that is the amount Greenland melt and its sea level rise that can be prevented by taking climate action. The difference between these means is 90-32 = 58mm indicating that climate action will reduce an amount of Greenland melt that will result in preventing the additional 58mm of sea level rise. However, this analysis does not take into account the uncertainty in the two sea level rise estimates.

The stated uncertainty in these estimates and in the difference between RCP8.5 and RCP2.6 are depicted graphically below in a GIF image that presents the difference between random selections from a Monte Carlo simulation of the two uncertain Greenland melt and sea level rise estimates. The interpretation of this difference is the impact of climate action, that is the amount of Greenland melt and sea level rise that can be prevented by taking climate action that is expected to transform the RCP8.5 business as usual into the RCP2.6 climate action results. The thick horizontal orange line in the chart marks the zero position of no impact of climate action. Values above this line show a positive impact of climate action in terms of a reduction in Greenland ice melt and sea level rise achieved with climate action. Values on the thick orange line indicate no impact of climate action and those below the orange line represent the anomalous result that climate action will increase ice melt and sea level rise. The Monte Carlo simulation Excel spreadsheet is available for download.

What we see in the graphical depiction of the Monte Carlo simulation is that the estimate of Greenland melt and sea level rise saved with climate action varies over a wide range from -100 to +200. Negative values imply that climate action results in greater Greenland melt and higher sea level rise. More to the point, the large range of values in the Monte Carlo simulation depicted graphically below imply that the uncertainty in the climate model ensemble estimates of future Greenland melt and sea level rise are too large for their mean values to provide useful information.

Here we encounter an oddity of climate science in the treatment of uncertainty. This oddity is explained in some detail in a related post LINK https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/04/22/climate-science-uncertainty/ Briefly, large uncertainties also yield large confidence intervals that invite their interpretation to suit the advocacy needs of the researcher to note with alarm at how high it could be. For example, in this case we see that the effect of climate action to transform RCP8.5 to RCPP2.6 could be as high as 200mm of sea level rise prevented. However, this kind of interpretation of uncertain data contains a confirmation bias that appears to be part of the methodology of climate science as described in yet another related post LINK https://tambonthongchai.com/2018/08/03/confirmationbias/

CONCLUSION: THE INTERPRETATION OF LARGE UNCERTAINEIES IN TERMS OF “OH LOOK HOW HIGH IT COULD BE” IS A BIASED MISINTERETATION OF WHAT UNCERTAINTY MEANS. WHAT WE SEE IN THESE GREENLAND ICE MELT AND SEA LEVEL RISE PROJECTIONS IS THAT THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE ESTIMATES ARE TOO LARGE AND THAT THEREFORE THE FORECASTS OF FUTURE GREENLAND MELT AND SEA LEVEL RISE BASED ON THESE CLIMATE MODEL RESULTS DO NOT CONTAIN USEFUL INFORMATION.

THE HONEST ANSWER TO THE QUESTION OF FUTURE SEA LEVEL RISE ATTRIBUTABLE TO ICE MELT IN GREENLAND IS THAT WE DON’T KNOW BECAUSE OF LARGE UNCERTAINTIES IN THE CLIMATE MODEL FORECASTS.

Uncertainty - Wikipedia

uncertainty at work

THE OXFORD UNIVERSITY DAVID WILKINSON BLOG ON UNCERTAINTY:

How you cope with uncertainty predicts how biased you are” LINK https://www.oxford-review.com/how-you-cope-with-uncertainty-predicts-how-biased-you-are/

Uncertainty Increases Positive and Negative Emotion -GymLion

Thwaites Glacier: If hole collapses from global warming, what happens?
Geological 'Hotspot' Melting Pine Island,Thwaites Glaciers, Not Global  Warming | Principia Scientific Intl.
Thwaites: 'Doomsday Glacier' vulnerability seen in new maps - BBC News
Hidden Volcanoes Melt Antarctic Glaciers from Below by Daniel Ayala on  Prezi Next
Newly-discovered volcano in Antarctica could erupt and add to global  warming. [Printable]
More Scientists Confirm Volcanoes Rapidly Melting Antarctica's Ice Sheets »  Exopolitics
Song of Ice and Fire: Active Volcano Found Benea | Earth And The Environment

THIS POST IS A CRITICAL REVIEW OF A LIVESCIENCE ARTICLE THAT SAYS THAT THE THWAITES GLACIER IS THREATENED BY A HIDDEN RIVER OF WARM WATER WITH THE WARMTH OF THE WATER ATTRIBUTED TO CLIMATE CHANGE . LINK TO THE LIVESCIENCE ARTICLE: https://www.livescience.com/thwaites-glacier-hidden-rivers-mapped.html

PART-1: WHAT THE LIVESCIENCE ARTICLE SAYS

Hidden rivers of warm water threaten vast Antarctic glacier
By Rafi Letzter

Sea levels could rise more than two feet if just this one glacier collapses.

Instruments aboard the British Antarctic Survey ship RV Nathaniel B Palmer helped scientists map the channels under the glacier.
Instruments aboard the British Antarctic Survey ship RV Nathaniel B Palmer helped scientists map the channels under the glacier. One of the largest, most unstable glaciers in Antarctica is sliding into the ocean. That’s due, in large part, to hidden rivers of warm water that lubricate its underbelly, more so now than ever in the era of climate change. Now, researchers know what those unseen channels look like. By using equipment that can measure fluctuations in gravity, radar and seismic waves, scientists were able to map precisely where these glacier-melting channels cut through the deep seabed. “It was fantastic to be able to map the channels and cavity system hidden beneath the ice shelf; they are deeper than expected some are more than 800 meters deep. They form the critical link between the ocean and the glacier.


12/06/20120 Million-Year-Old Crocs Walked on Two Feet Like T. Rex
Thwaites Glacier is a vast brick of ice flowing into Pine Island Bay in western Antarctica. If you took off in an airplane from El Paso, Texas and flew due south — across about 590 miles (950 kilometers) of western Mexico and 5,700 miles (9,200 km) of Pacific Ocean — you’d see it out your window as a white expanse with sheer cliffs where it meets open water. The Thwaites has moved toward the ocean its entire existence, but that rate of motion has increased fivefold over the last 30 years, to the point where snowfall at the rear of the glacier can no longer replenish ice lost in the front. That lost ice has contributed to about 4% of global sea level rise over those three decades. If the entire glacier were to collapse into the ocean, sea levels would increase by about a whopping 65 centimeters. This dramatic increase would devastate current coastlines, so scientists are trying to understand the dynamics driving Thwaites’ seaward motion and how fast these processes are accelerating the melt.

This new research, published Sept. 9 as a pair of papers in the journal Cryosphere, combined several under-glacier detection techniques to build detailed maps of those hidden channels. A key method: directly detecting gravity from the seafloor. The action happens where the seabed, water and ice at the bottom of the glacier meet. Ice is less dense, and therefore lighter, than water and this difference in mass causes gravity to fluctuate from one part of the glacier to the next. Sensitive instruments on boats or airplanes flying overhead can pick up those fluctuations — revealing details hidden deep below the ice surface. By combining that gravity data with radar and seismic measurements taken on the ice’s surface, scientists have created the most complete description yet of that hidden world, where warm water slicks the glacier bottom — its “bathymetry,” in scientific-speak.

The results confirm a major marine channel more than 800 meters deep that extends tens of kilometers to the front of Thwaites Glacier while the adjacent ice shelves are underlain by more complex bathymetry. {bathymetry=submarine topography = shape of the ocean floor}.What they found is that the bottoms of younger ice conform tightly to the jagged seafloor, while older ice shelves tend to have flatter bottoms. Details like that will help scientists refine models of how ice moves over ocean floors.

This research has filled a critical data gap. The new coastal sea floor maps and the cavity maps track the deep channels for over 100 km to where the glacier sits on the bed. For the first time, we have a clear view of the pathways along which warm water can reach the underside of the glacier, causing it to melt and contribute to global sea-level rise.

PART-2: CRITICAL COMMENTARY

It appears that costly and sophisticated research by these very dedicated climate scientists has made the amazing discovery that maps the deep channels on the seafloor bathymetry by which warm water reaches the underside of the Thwaites glacier and thus explains how this Doomsday glacier melts.

Yet another consideration, not given much attention in this research, is the issue not of identifying the channels by which the deep ocean waters flow to the bottom of the Doomsday Glacier, but of identifying the source of the heat that makes the water warm. Only if that source of heat is anthropogenic global warming caused by fossil fuel emissions that can be moderated by taking climate action, can the observed melt at the bottom of the Thwaites glacier be attributed to AGW climate change.

However, no such finding is made in this research project possibly because these researchers know, as do most researchers who study Antarctica, that this region of Antarctica is extremely geologically active. It is located directly above the West Antarctic Rift system with 150 active volcanoes on the sea floor and right in the middle of the Marie Byrd Mantle Plume with hot magma seeping up from the mantle. As described in a related post LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/02/09/antarctica-threatens-florida/ and in this related online article LINK https://www.labroots.com/trending/earth-and-the-environment/27/song-of-ice-and-fire-active-volcano-found-beneath-antarctic-snow ice melt at the bottom of the Thwaites glacier must be understood not in terms of man made fossil fuel emissions but in terms nature’s geological activity.

Details of these relevant geological features of Antarctica may be found in a related post on this site: LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2019/06/27/antarctica/

Geological 'Hotspot' Melting Pine Island,Thwaites Glaciers, Not Global  Warming | Principia Scientific Intl.

David Attenborough - Simple English Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

THIS POST IS A CRITICAL REVIEW OF THE CLAIM THAT THE END OF THE WORLD BY GLOBAL WARMING IS A DECADE AWAY IN THE 2030S UNLESS WE GIVE UP FOSSIL FUELS.

Sir David Attenborough's new documentary terrifies viewers

PART-1: WHAT THIS OLD FOOL SAYS

SIR DAVID Attenborough has warned that polar bears could go extinct and ANOTHER major pandemic could hit if we don’t tackle climate change. Sir Attenborough predicts a lifetime of floods, drought and the ocean turning to acid if the planet isn’t saved. Sir Attenborough warned of the disasters that humanity could face in the next 50 years.


Polar bears could be extinct by 2030 if the issues of climate change aren’t tackled. For those born today, the natural historian predicts a number of likely terrifying scenarios that the next generation could face.

In the decade beginning in 2030, after years of deforestation and the illegal burning in the Amazon basin, the world’s biggest rainforest could be reduced by 75 per cent. Reduced rainfall would cause water shortages in cities and droughts in the farmlands created by the deforestation. Food production would be radically affected. The biodiversity loss would be catastrophic. Species that may have given us drugs, new foodstuffs and industrial applications may be gone.

With global warming driving up the Earth’s temperature, the thaws in the Arctic are starting earlier and the freezes are coming later. It is quite possible that one year, the summer would be just that little bit longer, and the cubs born that year will be so small that they cannot survive their first polar winter. This means that the polar bear, a beast that relies on the northern sea ice to hunt seals, will begin to die off. As the ice-free period lengthened, scientists detected a worrying trend. Pregnant females, drained of their reserves, were now giving birth to smaller cubs. It is quite possible that one year, the summer would be just that little bit longer, and the cubs born that year will be so small that they cannot survive their first polar winter. The whole population of polar bears would then crash.

With climate change continuing into the 2050s, the entire ocean would become totally acidic as a result of “carbon dioxide forming carbonic acid to trigger a calamitous decline. The middle of the 2050s would be the end for the remaining commercial fisheries and fish farming around the world.

Sir Attenborough predicts that vast crop failure will strike in the 2080s which will bring another pandemic. Global food production will hit a crisis point after centuries of intensive agriculture adding too much fertiliser to the soil rendering it exhausted and lifeless.

The lack of food will also be made worse with the emergence of another pandemic. We are only just beginning to understand that there is an association between the rise of emergent viruses and the planet’s demise. The more we continue fracturing the wild with deforestation, the expansion of farmland and the activities of the illegal wildlife trade, the more likely it is that another pandemic would arise.

BUT THE SOLUTION IS WITHIN OUR GRASP. There are a number of steps we can take and goals we must achieve to avert the coming catastrophe. There are a number of solutions to stop the disasters. ALL WE HAVE TO DO IS TO GIVE UP FOSSIL FUELS. NOW IS THAT SO HARD? THE CHOICE IS CLEAR!

CONCLUSIONS

IT HAS BEEN SPECULATED IN A RELATED POST THAT THE CLIMATE CHANGE MOVEMENT IS BEST UNDERSTOOD AS AN ANTI FOSSIL FUEL MOVEMENT WITH CLIMATE CHANGE AND ITS CLAIMED HORRORS SERVING AS THE MOTIVATION FOR THE COSTLY OVERHAUL OF THE WORLD’S ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE AWAY FROM FOSSIL FUELS. LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/03/23/anti-fossil-fuel-activism-disguised-as-climate-science/

THESE SPECULATIONS IN THE RELATED POST ARE NOW VERIFIED BY A SENILE ACTIVIST WHO FIRST SCARES US BY ENUMERATING THE HORRIFIC IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND THEN PROPOSES THAT ALL OF THOSE HORRORS ARE COMPLETELY AVOIDABLE. ALL WE HAVE TO DO IS TO TAKE CLIMATE ACTION. CLIMATE ACTION IS THE STATEMENT OF THE UNDERLYING ANTI FOSSIL FUEL MOVEMENT WHICH SAYS THAT WE MUST GIVE UP FOSSIL FUELS.

WE ARE INDEBTED TO SIR DAVID ATTENBOROUGH FOR MAKING THIS EQUATION VERY CLEAR BY FIRST ENUMERATING THE HORRORS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AS SOON AS THE 2030S IF WE DON’T TAKE CLIMATE ACTION AND STAY WITH FOSSIL FUELS AND THEN PROVIDING US THE ESCAPE FROM THAT HORROR WHEREIN ALL WE HAVE TO DO IS TO TAKE CLIMATE ACTION AND GIVE UP FOSSIL FUELS.

THE UNIQUE FEATURE OF HIS PRESENTATION IS THE CLARITY WITH WHICH HE HAS EXPOSED THE REAL GAME IN THE CLIMATE CHANGE MOVEMENT OF OUR TIME THAT CLIMATE SCIENCE HAS DONE SO WELL TO HIDE UNDER THE GREAT PRETENSE OF THE SCIENCE OF CLIMATE CHANGE.

HE HAS GIVEN THE GAME AWAY AND EXPOSED THE PRETENSE TO CLIMATE SCIENCE BY AN ANTI FOSSIL FUEL MOVEMENT. THANK YOU YOUR LORDSHIP. FOR YOUR NEXT VIDEO I WOULD LIKE YOU TO KNOW THAT OCEAN ACIDIFICATION DOES NOT MEAN THAT THE OCEAN WOULD “BECOME ACIDIC”. IT MEANS ONLY THAT THE pH WILL GO DOWN EVER SO SLIGHTLY WELL WITHIN THE ALKALINE RANGE. MY OTHER ADVICE IS THIS: YOU HAVE PLENTY OF MONEY. YOU DON’T HAVE TO BE A WHORE AND SELL YOUR NATURALIST LEGACY JUST TO MAKE MORE MONEY. YOUR LEGACY IS MORE IMPORTANT THAN THE MONEY YOU ARE TAKING TO SELL THAT WONDERFUL LEGACY LIKE A WHORE.

David Attenborough - Simple English Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Sir David Attenborough leaves the BBC to Netflix and binge
Study predicts more extreme weather like 2011 Texas drought, thanks to  global warming
How climate change is increasing forest fires around the world |  Environment| All topics from climate change to conservation | DW |  19.06.2017

Two Antarctic glaciers are breaking up and it could have major consequences  for sea level rise - CNN
Thwaites Glacier: If hole collapses from global warming, what happens?
Pine Island Glacier map - mobile - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting  Corporation)

THIS POST IS A CRITICAL REVIEW OF A REPORT BY THE WASHINGTON POST THAT “Two major Antarctic glaciers are tearing loose from their restraints, scientists say”: https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2020/09/14/glaciers-breaking-antarctica-pine-island-thwaites/

PART-1: WHAT THE WASHINGTON POST REPORT SAYS

By Chris Mooney: September 15, 2020 at 2:03 a.m. GMT+7
Two Antarctic glaciers that have long kept scientists awake at night are breaking free from the restraints that have hemmed them in, increasing the threat of large-scale sea-level rise. Located along the coast of the Amundsen Sea in West Antarctica, the enormous Pine Island and Thwaites glaciers already contribute around 5 percent of global sea-level rise. The survival of Thwaites has been deemed so critical that the United States and Britain have launched a targeted multimillion-dollar research mission to the glacier. The loss of the glacier could trigger the broader collapse of the West Antarctic ice sheet, which contains enough ice to eventually raise seas by about 10 feet. The new findings, published Monday in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, come from analysis of satellite images. They show that a naturally occurring buffer system that prevents the glaciers from flowing outward rapidly is breaking down, potentially unleashing far more ice into the sea in coming years. The glaciers’ “shear margins,” where their floating ice shelves encounter high levels of friction that constrain the natural flow of ice, are progressively weakening and in some cases breaking into pieces. The stresses that slow down the glacier, they are no longer in place, so the glacier is speeding up. While many of the images have been seen before, the new analysis suggests that they are a sign of further disintegration to come. It’s just the latest in a flurry of bad news about the planet’s ice. Arctic sea ice is very close to — but likely to not quite reach — a record low for this time of year. Last month, Canada lost a large portion of its last major Arctic ice shelf. And in Greenland, the largest still-intact ice shelf in the Northern Hemisphere, just lost a large chunk of ice, equivalent in size to roughly two Manhattan islands, according to the Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland. Experts there blamed the fracture on a strong general warming trend and temperatures that have been “incredibly” high in the northeast of Greenland in recent years. Ice shelves are vast floating platforms that extend across the surface of the ocean at the outer edge of marine-based glaciers. As they flow over the water, these shelves freeze onto mountainsides and islands and anchor themselves to bumps in the seafloor. In this way, the shelves provide a braking mechanism on the natural outward flow of ice. The buttressing effect occurs in the shear margins, where faster-flowing ice meets ice that is more static and stable, often because it is moored to some part of the landscape. In these places, the ice frequently crumples and contorts, a visible indication of the powerful stresses that it is under. But when those stresses become too much, ice breaks. That’s what’s now happening in West Antarctica, the new research argues, suggesting that warm ocean water has thinned the ice shelves out enough from below that they became brittle. At the same time, and for the same reason, the glaciers themselves began to flow outward faster. The resulting forces led the shear-margin ice to break into pieces which means that the glacier, less constrained, will now be able to add ice to the ocean even faster. For the Pine Island Glacier, the new study finds that while the cracking and fraying at the shear margin dates to 1999, it accelerated in 2016. Even more concerning is the Thwaites Glacier. Here, again, the breakdown of the shear margin has increased in recent years. This is important work. The processes playing out in Antarctica appear to have already reached their completion in parts of Greenland, where one of the largest glaciers, Jakobshavn, no longer has any significant ice shelf at all. When it lost that shelf around the year 2000, Jakobshavn’s rate of ice loss steeply increased. The 79 North glacier still has a major ice shelf, as do some of Greenland’s other northernmost glaciers, but many of these have lost considerable size in recent decades. The new paper shows that the Amundsen Sea Embayment ice shelves have gone through most, but not all, of the Jakobshavn. Warming ocean thinned the ice shelves, this reduced buttressing, this let the non-floating ice move faster, contributing some to sea-level rise and also starting to break the sides of the ice shelves, but additional acceleration could occur if further fracture and ice-shelf loss should occur. Multiple ice-shelf collapses have already been seen in Canada, Greenland and the warmer Antarctic Peninsula, where the onetime Larsen A and Larsen B ice shelves fractured and, today, no longer exist. When the ice shelves are damaged by climate change, as we saw in the Antarctic Peninsula in the last several decades, their buttressing effect is reduced and the ice streams speed up and raise sea levels. The speed-up increases damage, a positive feedback which is not good news. If a similar process plays out in the Amundsen Sea of West Antarctica, where Pine Island and Thwaites are, the sea-level consequences could be enormous. Over the past six years, the western and central parts of the Pine Island ice shelf have shrunk by about 30 percent, from about 1,500 square miles down to closer to 1,000 square miles. In other words, an area about the size of Los Angeles has been lost. This shear margin is so damaged we think it preconditions this ice shelf for destabilization on the longer term. These are the first signs we see that Pine Island ice shelf is disappearing. This damage is difficult to heal.

PART-2: WHAT THE REFERENCED RESEARCH PAPER SAYS

Damage accelerates ice shelf instability and mass loss in Amundsen Sea Embayment. Christopher Shuman, Bert Wouters, Frank Pattyn, Jan Wuite, Etienne Berthier, and Thomas Nagler. PNAS September 14, 2020 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1912890117. Edited by Chad Greene, NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, CA, and accepted by Editorial Board Member Jean Jouzel July 29, 2020 (received for review July 29, 2019) ABSTRACT: Pine Island Glacier and Thwaites Glacier in the Amundsen Sea Embayment are among the fastest changing outlet glaciers in West Antarctica with large consequences for global sea level. Yet, assessing how much and how fast both glaciers will weaken if these changes continue remains a major uncertainty as many of the processes that control their ice shelf weakening and grounding line retreat are not well understood. Here, we combine multisource satellite imagery with modeling to uncover the rapid development of damage areas in the shear zones of Pine Island and Thwaites ice shelves. These damage areas consist of highly crevassed areas and open fractures and are first signs that the shear zones of both ice shelves have structurally weakened over the past decade. Idealized model results reveal moreover that the damage initiates a feedback process where initial ice shelf weakening triggers the development of damage in their shear zones, which results in further speedup, shearing, and weakening, hence promoting additional damage development. This damage feedback potentially preconditions these ice shelves for disintegration and enhances grounding line retreat. The results of this study suggest that damage feedback processes are key to future ice shelf stability, grounding line retreat, and sea level contributions from Antarctica. Moreover, they underline the need for incorporating these feedback processes, which are currently not accounted for in most ice sheet models, to improve sea level rise projections. Pine Island Glacier (PIG) and Thwaites Glacier (TG) in the Amundsen Sea Embayment are responsible for the largest contribution of Antarctica to global sea level rise (i.e., ∼5% of global sea level rise). Both glaciers show distinct changes in recent decades driven by changing atmospheric and oceanic conditions that cause enhanced ocean-induced melting of their floating ice shelves. Due to this enhanced melting, PIG and TG calving fronts retreated and their ice shelves thinned, decreasing the buttressing effect they exert on the upstream glaciers. As a result, both glaciers have accelerated and thinned and their grounding lines have retreated. Under these conditions and in combination with a retrograde bed, PIG and TG are considered prone to marine ice sheet instability with the potential loss of their ice shelves and with large consequences for sea level rise. Yet, quantifying the future timing and magnitude of these instabilities remains difficult as many of the key processes and their boundary conditions are poorly known or not accounted for in ice sheet models. SIGNIFICANCE OF THESE FINDINGS: The Pine Island Glacier and Thwaites Glacier in the Amundsen Sea Embayment are among the fastest changing outlet glaciers in Antarctica. Yet, projecting the future of these glaciers remains a major uncertainty for sea level rise. Here we use satellite imagery to show the development of damage areas with crevasses and open fractures on Pine Island and Thwaites ice shelves. These damage areas are first signs of their structural weakening as they precondition these ice shelves for disintegration. Model results that include the damage mechanism highlight the importance of damage for ice shelf stability, grounding line retreat, and future sea level contributions from Antarctica. Moreover, they underline the need for incorporating damage processes in models to improve sea level rise projections.

PART-3: CRITICAL COMMENTARY

This research and the interpretation of its findings by the press follow a well established pattern in climate change research of polar ice dynamics. This pattern is driven by a well-entrenched confirmation bias in climate research that all polar ice melt events are caused by AGW climate change such that it is necessary only to determine the possible catastrophic consequences of the observed ice melt in terms of such things as polar bear ecology or sea level rise without the requirement to provide evidence of the assumed causation.

This bias is particularly egregious in the identification of ice melt that are geographically isolated and in terms of time scale can only be interpreted as isolated events rather than long term trends. The attribution to anthropogenic global warming and thereby to fossil fuel emissions is simply assumed. It remains only to provide creative impacts of the observed ice melt in terms of sea level rise or ecological impacts under various various assumed conditions that “could” occur and that can be presented as events much too hazardous to risk. All of these assessments lead to the implied and assumed conclusion that such ice melt events can and must be attested or attenuated by taking climate action in the form of reducing or eliminating the use of fossil fuels. This kind of research is neither science nor credible but is driven to acceptance by the fear of the ice melt events in terms of such things as sea level rise.

The credibility of such ice melt research findings is further degraded when the ice melt events in question are very location specific in areas known to be geologically active where isolated location specific ice melt events are best understood in terms of geological activity underneath the ice and not the atmosphere above the ice. Both Antarctica and the Arctic are geologically very active. Specifically, the West Antarctic Ice Sheet and the Antarctic Peninsula region where the Pine Island glacier and the Thwaites glaciers are located is geologically very active with active volcanism underneath these glaciers.


The principal geological feature of West Antarctica is the West Antarctic Rift (WAR) and its major fault lines shown in the graphic below. The rift is 700 miles wide and 4,000 miles long with 149 known active volcanoes. A rift is an area where the lithosphere is being pulled apart by plate tectonics. In the diagram below, the black cross hatched area shows the location of the West Antarctic Rift. Red outlines identify regions of volcanic activity with red dots within them showing locations of the volcanoes. Two such red circles that are particularly significant in terms of geological activity and geothermal heat are Deception Island and the Marie Byrd Mantle Plume area. As the lithosphere is pulled apart, its middle thins and brings hot mantle rocks closer to the ocean waters and aids in heat transfer from the mantle to the ocean. See graphic below provided by the University of Sydney [LINK]. Here, the color red indicates intensity of geothermal heat. The WAR contains 149 active volcanoes.

Within this giant rift structure are specific regions of intense geological activity and geothermal heat. The Northwest extension of the WAR, with a string of active volcanoes, goes into the Antarctic Peninsula and out into the ocean. The West Antarctic Rift (WAR) consists of a number of rift valleys between East and West Antarctica. A rift valley is a lowland region that forms in the middle where a rift occurs. They tend to be long, narrow, and deep. The WAR includes the Byrd area of West Antarctica. The Byrd area is the main portion of the WAR.

The Marie Byrd Mantle Plume Hotspot is shown below. It includes the Thwaites Glacier and the Pine Island Glacier. A mantle plume hotspot is a large area where magma comes up from the mantle of the inner earth, goes up through layers of rock until obstructed when it spreads out into a mushroom shape over a widespread area. If it is under a sufficient pressure, the magma can break through to the atmosphere as a volcanic eruption. Red shaded areas identify locations of melting and the darker the red color, the more intense the melting. These red areas are found close to the edge of the Marie Byrd Mantle Plume. These data suggest that the role of the mantle plume in the observed ice melt events cannot be overlooked.

IN BRIEF, NO EVIDENCE IS PROVIDED FOR THE CAUSATION OF THE OBSERVED ICE MELT EVENTS BY AGW. THE ASSUMED CAUSATION BY FOSSIL FUEL EMISSIONS IS REJECTED ON THAT BASIS. ALSO, IN LIGHT OF THE GEOLOGICAL FEATURES OF THE REGION WHERE THESE ICE MELT EVENTS WERE OBSERVED, IT CANNOT BE ASSUMED THAT THE ICE MELT EVENTS PRESENTED MUST HAVE BEEN CAUSED BY ANTHROPOGENIC GLOBAL WARMING OR THAT THEY CAN BE ARRESTED OR MODERATED BY TAKING CLIMATE ACTION IN THE FORM OF REDUCING OR ELIMINATING THE USE OF FOSSIL FUELS.

bandicam 2020-02-10 11-51-04-994
bandicam 2020-02-10 12-03-35-146

TO BE CLEAR, THE GEOLOGICAL FEATURES OF ANTARCTICA DESCRIBED HERE DO NOT IMPLY THAT THEREFORE GEOLOGY IS THE CAUSE OF THE OBSERVED ICE MELT. THEY IMPLY THAT CAUSATION BY AGW CANNOT BE ASSUMED AND EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE MUST BE PRESENTED FOR THAT CAUSATION.

RELATED POST ON CONFIRMATION BIAS IN CLIMATE SCIENCE: https://tambonthongchai.com/2018/08/03/confirmationbias/

RELATED POSTS ON THE GEOLOGICAL FEATURES OF THE POLAR REGIONS

LINK#1: https://tambonthongchai.com/2019/06/27/antarctica/

LINK#2: https://tambonthongchai.com/2019/07/01/arctic/

Active Volcano Found Under Antarctic Ice: Eruption Could Raise Sea Levels
Volcano climate SHOCK: Heat source under Antarctica could be melting giant  ice caps | Science | News | Express.co.uk

arctic

THIS POST IS A CRITICAL REVIEW OF A RESEARCH FINDING BY NCAR THAT THE ARCTIC IS TRANSITIONING TO A NEW CLIMATE STATE. (NCAR=National Center for Atmospheric Research, USA) LINK TO THE ARTICLE ON PHYS.ORG https://phys.org/news/2020-09-arctic-transitioning-climate-state.html

Ice-Free Arctic Forecasts | Real Climate Science

PART-1: WHAT THE NCAR PAPER SAYS

  1. The fast-warming Arctic has started to transition from a predominantly frozen state into an entirely different climate, according to a comprehensive new study of Arctic conditions. Weather patterns in the upper latitudes have always varied from year to year, with more or less sea ice, colder or warmer winters, and longer or shorter seasons of rain instead of snow. But the new research by scientists at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) finds that the Arctic has now warmed so significantly that its year-to-year variability is moving outside the bounds of any past fluctuations, signaling the transition to a “new Arctic” climate regime.
  2. The rate of change is remarkable. It’s a period of such rapid change that observations of past weather patterns no longer show what you can expect next year. The Arctic is already entering a completely different climate than just a few decades ago.
  3. Arctic sea ice has melted so significantly in recent decades that even an unusually cold year will no longer have the amount of summer sea ice that existed as recently as the mid-20th century. Autumn and winter air temperatures will also warm enough to enter a statistically distinct climate by the middle of this century, followed by a seasonal change in precipitation that will result in additional months in which rain will fall instead of snow.
  4. NCAR researchers arrived at these findings from hundreds of computer simulations as well as observations of Arctic climate conditions. The vast amount of data enabled them to statistically define the climate boundaries of the “old Arctic”—or how much variability can naturally occur from year to year—and then to identify when human-caused warming will push the Arctic beyond those natural bounds and into a new climate.
  5. The future projections used for the study are based on the RCP8.5 high-end scenario for future emissions of greenhouse gases. Reduced emissions would lessen the extent of climate change in the Arctic. The shifting climate has wide-ranging enormous consequences for ecosystems, water resource management, flood planning, and infrastructure.
  6. The far north is warming more rapidly than lower-latitude regions, which is due to a process known as Arctic amplification. This occurs because light-colored sea ice, which reflects heat back into space, is replaced by darker ocean water, which traps heat. In addition, relatively warm ocean waters are no longer shielded in the winter as effectively by the insulating properties of thick sea ice.
  7. The changes in Arctic climate are so profound that the average extent of sea ice in September, when it reaches its annual minimum, has dropped by 31% since the first decade of the satellite era (1979-88).
  8. Landrum and Holland wanted to determine if this decline shows that the Arctic climate has fundamentally changed. They also wanted to study changes to two other key aspects that are indicative of the frozen state of Arctic climate: air temperatures in the fall and winter, and the seasonal transition in precipitation from mostly snow to mostly rain.
  9. To answer these questions, they turned to multiple simulations from five of the world’s leading climate models that have been used for an international research project known as the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5, or CMIP5. The large number of simulations enabled them to assemble a statistically significant picture of Arctic climate, allowing them to differentiate year-to-year natural climate variability from a transition to a new Arctic climate.
  10. The scientists compared the model output to observations, confirming that the models were accurately capturing past climate and therefore could reliably simulate future climate.
  11. They then applied statistical techniques to determine when climatic changes exceeded the bounds of natural variability. For this last question, they identified a different climate as emerging when the 10-year average was at least two standard deviations away from the average of the climate in the decade 1950-59.
  12. In other words, if the sea ice extent changed so much that the average in, say, the 1990s was lower in 97.7% of all cases than the sea ice extent for any year in the 1950s, then the 1990s were defined as a new climate.
  13. When they applied these techniques to sea ice extent, they found that the Arctic has already entered a new climate. Each of the five models showed sea ice retreating so dramatically that a new climate for sea ice had emerged in the late 20th and early 21st centuries.
  14. Looking forward, they also found that the Arctic may start to experience largely ice-free conditions in the next several decades. Several of the models indicated that the Arctic could become mostly ice free for 3-10 months annually by the end of the century, based on a scenario of high greenhouse gas emissions.
  15. In terms of air temperatures, they focused on autumn and winter, which are strongly influenced by the summertime reduction of sea ice and the subsequent timing of the ice regrowth. They found that the air temperatures over the ocean will enter a new climate during the first half or middle of this century, with air temperatures over land warming substantially later in the century.
  16. The seasonal cycle of precipitation will change dramatically by the middle of the century. If emissions persist at a high level, most continental regions will experience an increase in the rainy season of 20-60 days by mid-century and 60-90 days by the end of the century. In some Arctic regions, rain may occur any month of the year by century’s end.
  17. The Arctic is likely to experience extremes in sea ice, temperature, and precipitation that are far outside anything that we’ve experienced before. We need to change our definition of what Arctic climate is.

PART-2: CRITICAL COMMENTARY

  1. The essence of this research paper is that the failed “Ice-Free-Arctic” fear has been resurrected and re-christened as a “New Climate State“.
  2. The paper is based on the assumption that observed year to year declines in September minimum Arctic sea ice extent are driven by anthropogenic global warming and that therefore these trends can be moderated and controlled with climate action to moderate the rate of warming. However no empirical evidence is provided to establish that critical causation relationship.
  3. In related posts we find that correlation analysis does not show that September minimum sea ice extent or volume is responsive to anthropogenic global warming temperatures over the Arctic at an annual time scale. LINK#1 https://tambonthongchai.com/2019/11/07/precipitous-decline-in-arctic-sea-ice-volume/ LINK#2 https://tambonthongchai.com/2019/09/28/sea-ice-extent-area-1979-2018/
  4. In the context of the results of correlation analysis presented in the linked documents in item 3 above, it is noted that the ocean floor of the Arctic is geologically very active with significant mantle plume and volcanic activity as described in a related post LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2019/07/01/arctic/ .
  5. As a result, it is not possible to understand the sea ice melt phenomenon in this region purely in terms of atmospheric science. The continued and intensified effort by climate science to do so is a reflection of a debilitating atmosphere bias in that discipline.
  6. In Part 3 and Part 4 below we present a history in climate science of a failed obsession with an ice free Arctic and its positive feedback implications. This history implies that the attempt to establish a fear based activism against fossil fuel emissions with a scary spectacle of an ice free Arctic has failed and that the phrase “Ice free Arctic” has lost its potency as a tool for fear based activism against fossil fuels.
  7. The ice free Arctic fears presented in the paper under review must be understood in this context. The failed effort over decades to create the fear of an ice free Arctic has diminished the credibility and potency of the phrase “ice free Arctic” and a new language was necessary to present that case. The new language stated as “THE ARCTIC IS TRANSITIONING TO A NEW CLIMATE STATE” is best understood in the context of the history of a failed effort to create fear of an ice free Arctic .
  8. The failure of the ICE FREE ARCTIC fearology must be addressed in terms of the data and not with new language and new climate model projections. More importantly, as a science and a scientific endeavor, climate science must resist the need to present climate data to create fear of fossil fuel emissions that requires an excessive reliance on climate models and scary projections based on extreme assumptions. The statistical and logical flaw in the use of extreme values of uncertainty bands in climate science is discussed in a related post on this site LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/04/22/climate-science-uncertainty/
  9. ADVOCACY BY CLIMATE SCIENTISTS CREATES A BIAS IN THEIR WORK SUCH THAT THEIR FINDINGS LOSE CREDIBILITY. THIS PATTERN IS SEEN IN THE SORDID HISTORY OF THE “ICE FREE ARCTIC” PRESENTED BELOW.

CLIMATE DUD-PREDICTIONS : 'Ice-Free' Arctic Prophesies By The '97%  Consensus' And Compliant Mainstream Media | Climatism
Ice Free Arctic Forecasts | Real Science

PART-3: ICE FREE ARCTIC FEARS IN THE CLIMATE SCIENCE LITERATURE

Jakobson, Linda. “China prepares for an ice-free Arctic.” SIPRI Insights on Peace and Security 2010.2 (2010). China Prepares for an Ice-Free ArcticThis paper addresses how China is preparing for, and approaching the issues involved in, an ice-free Arctic Ocean. It explores the thinking of Chinese scholars and officials on the political aspects of change in the Arctic. It presents an overview of China’s security, scientific, and commercial pursuits in the Arctic. It also outlines the ways in which China approaches the international politics of the Arctic. Though China does not have a coast on the Arctic Ocean, it is nevertheless interested in the shorter shipping time and access to resources that a more navigable Arctic could provide.

Rainville, Luc, and Rebecca A. Woodgate. “Observations of internal wave generation in the seasonally ice‐free Arctic.” Geophysical Research Letters 36.23 (2009). The Arctic is generally considered a low energy ocean. Using mooring data from the northern Chukchi Sea, we confirm that this is mainly because of sea‐ice impeding input of wind energy into the ocean. When sea‐ice is present, even strong storms do not induce significant oceanic response. However, during ice‐free seasons, local storms drive strong inertial currents (>20 cm/s) that propagate throughout the water column and significantly deepen the surface mixed layer. The large vertical shear associated with summer inertial motions suggests a dominant role for localized and seasonal vertical mixing in Arctic Ocean dynamics. Our results imply that recent extensive summer sea‐ice retreat will lead to significantly increased internal wave generation especially over the shelves and also possibly over deep waters. This internal wave activity will likely dramatically increase upper‐layer mixing in large areas of the previously quiescent Arctic, with important ramifications for ecosystems and ocean dynamics.

Sigmond, Michael, John C. Fyfe, and Neil C. Swart. “Ice-free Arctic projections under the Paris Agreement.” Nature Climate Change 8.5 (2018): 404-408. Under the Paris Agreement, emissions scenarios are pursued that would stabilize the global mean temperature at 1.5–2.0 °C above pre-industrial levels, but current emission reduction policies are expected to limit warming by 2100 to approximately 3.0 °C. Whether such emissions scenarios would prevent a summer sea-ice-free Arctic is unknown. Here we employ stabilized warming simulations with an Earth System Model to obtain sea-ice projections under stabilized global warming, and correct biases in mean sea-ice coverage by constraining with observations. Although there is some sensitivity to details in the constraining method, the observationally constrained projections suggest that the benefits of going from 2.0 °C to 1.5 °C stabilized warming are substantial; an eightfold decrease in the frequency of ice-free conditions is expected, from once in every five to once in every forty years. Under 3.0 °C global mean warming, however, permanent summer ice-free conditions are likely, which emphasizes the need for nations to increase their commitments to the Paris Agreement.

Overpeck, Jonathan T., et al. “Arctic system on trajectory to new, seasonally ice‐free state.” Eos, Transactions American Geophysical Union 86.34 (2005): 309-313. The Arctic system is moving toward a new state that falls outside the envelope of glacial‐interglacial fluctuations that prevailed during recent Earth history. This future Arctic is likely to have dramatically less permanent ice than exists at present. At the present rate of change, a summer ice‐free Arctic Ocean within a century is a real possibility, a state not witnessed for at least a million years. The change appears to be driven largely by feedback‐enhanced global climate warming, and there seem to be few, if any processes or feedbacks within the Arctic system that are capable of altering the trajectory toward this “super interglacial” state.

Screen, James A., and Daniel Williamson. “Ice-free Arctic at 1.5° C?.” Nature Climate Change 7.4 (2017): 230-231. We examine the seasonal cycle of Arctic sea ice in scenarios with limited future global warming. To do so, we analyze two sets of observational records that cover the observational uncertainty of Arctic sea ice loss per degree of global warming. The observations are combined with 100 simulations of historical and future climate evolution from the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model Grand Ensemble. Based on the high-sensitivity observations, we find that Arctic September sea ice is lost with low probability (P ≈ 10%) for global warming of +1.5∘C above preindustrial levels and with very high probability (P > 99%) for global warming of +2∘C above preindustrial levels. For the low-sensitivity observations, September sea ice is extremely unlikely to disappear for +1.5∘C warming (P ≪ 1%) and has low likelihood (P ≈ 10%) to
disappear even for +2∘C global warming. For March, both observational records suggest a loss of 15% to 20% of Arctic sea ice area for 1.5∘C to 2∘C global warming.

Cai, Wei-Jun, et al. “Decrease in the CO2 uptake capacity in an ice-free Arctic Ocean basin.” Science 329.5991 (2010): 556-559. It has been predicted that the Arctic Ocean will sequester much greater amounts of carbon dioxide (CO2) from the atmosphere as a result of sea ice melt and increasing primary productivity. However, this prediction was made on the basis of observations from either highly productive ocean margins or ice-covered basins before the recent major ice retreat. We report here a high-resolution survey of sea-surface CO2 concentration across the Canada Basin, showing a great increase relative to earlier observations. Rapid CO2 invasion from the atmosphere and low biological CO2 drawdown are the main causes for the higher CO2, which also acts as a barrier to further CO2 invasion. Contrary to the current view, we predict that the Arctic Ocean basin will not become a large atmospheric CO2 sink under ice-free conditions.

Wang, Muyin, and James E. Overland. “A sea ice free summer Arctic within 30 years: An update from CMIP5 models.” Geophysical Research Letters 39.18 (2012). Three years ago we proposed that the summer Arctic would be nearly sea ice free by the 2030s; “nearly” is interpreted as sea ice extent less than 1.0 million km2. We consider this estimate to be still valid based on projections of updated climate models (CMIP5) and observational data. Similar to previous models (CMIP3), CMIP5 still shows a wide spread in hindcast and projected sea ice loss among different models. Further, there is no consensus in the scientific literature for the cause of such a spread in results for CMIP3 and CMIP5. While CMIP5 model mean sea ice extents are closer to observations than CMIP3, the rates of sea ice reduction in most model runs are slow relative to recent observations. All CMIP5 models do show loss of sea ice due to increased anthropogenic forcing relative to pre‐industrial control runs. Applying the same technique of model selection and extrapolation approach to CMIP5 as we used in our previous paper, the interval range for a nearly sea ice free Arctic is 14 to 36 years, with a median value of 28 years. Relative to a 2007 baseline, this suggests a nearly sea ice free Arctic in the 2030s

Liu, Jiping, et al. “Reducing spread in climate model projections of a September ice-free Arctic.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 110.31 (2013): 12571-12576. This paper addresses the specter of a September ice-free Arctic in the 21st century using newly available simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). We find that large spread in the projected timing of the September ice-free Arctic in 30 CMIP5 models is associated at least as much with different atmospheric model components as with initial conditions. Here we reduce the spread in the timing of an ice-free state using two different approaches for the 30 CMIP5 models: (i) model selection based on the ability to reproduce the observed sea ice climatology and variability since 1979 and (ii) constrained estimation based on the strong and persistent relationship between present and future sea ice conditions. Results from the two approaches show good agreement. Under a high-emission scenario both approaches project that September ice extent will drop to ∼1.7 million km2 in the mid 2040s and reach the ice-free state (defined as 1 million km2) in 2054–2058. Under a medium-mitigation scenario, both approaches project a decrease to ∼1.7 million km2 in the early 2060s, followed by a leveling off in the ice extent.

Jahn, Alexandra, et al. “How predictable is the timing of a summer ice‐free Arctic?.” Geophysical Research Letters 43.17 (2016): 9113-9120. Climate model simulations give a large range of over 100 years for predictions of when the Arctic could first become ice free in the summer, and many studies have attempted to narrow this uncertainty range. However, given the chaotic nature of the climate system, what amount of spread in the prediction of an ice‐free summer Arctic is inevitable? Based on results from large ensemble simulations with the Community Earth System Model, we show that internal variability alone leads to a prediction uncertainty of about two decades, while scenario uncertainty between the strong (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5) and medium (RCP4.5) forcing scenarios adds at least another 5 years. Common metrics of the past and present mean sea ice state (such as ice extent, volume, and thickness) as well as global mean temperatures do not allow a reduction of the prediction uncertainty from internal variability.

PART-4: ICE FREE ARCTIC FEARS IN THE MEDIA

  1. 1999, STUDY SHOWS ARCTIC ICE SHRINKING BECAUSE OF GLOBAL WARMING. Sea ice in the Arctic Basin is shrinking by 14000 square miles per year “probably” because of global warming caused by human activity according to a new international study that used 46 years of data and sophisticated computer simulation models to tackle the specific question of whether the loss of Arctic ice is a natural variation or caused by global warming. The computer model says that the probability that these changes were caused by natural variation is 1% but when global warming was added to the model the ice melt was a perfect fit. Therefore the ice melt is caused by human activities that emit greenhouse gases.
  2. 1999, WARM ARCTIC MAY ENHANCE GLOBAL WARMING. A sophisticated computer simulation model shows that increasing the temperature or snowfall on the Arctic tundra can triple its CO2 emissions from the soil of the tundra. The Arctic contains 1/3 of the earth’s soil stored carbon dioxide. The computer model shows a positive feedback look that can cause global warming to snowball because warming in itself can increase carbon dioxide in the air and accelerate the rate of warming. It is a frightening scenario that could cause global warming catastrophe to occur sooner than previously thought.
  3. 2004, GRIM SIGNS OF GLOBAL WARMING Global warming has unleashed massive ecological changes that are already under way. These changes are ushering in a grim future including massive species extinctions, an elevation of sea levels by 3 feet, wholesale changes to the Arctic, and disruptions to the earth’s life support system. These changes should serve as a wake up call to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
  4. 2004, ARCTIC CLIMATE IMPACT ASSESSMENT
    An unprecedented 4-year study of the Arctic shows that polar bears, walruses, and some seals are becoming extinctArctic summer sea ice may disappear entirely. Combined with a rapidly melting Greenland ice sheet, it will raise the sea level 3 feet by 2100 inundating lowlands from Florida to Bangladesh. Average winter temperatures in Alaska and the rest of the Arctic are projected to rise an additional 7 to 13 degrees over the next 100 years because of increasing emissions of greenhouse gases from human activities. The area is warming twice as fast as anywhere else because of global air circulation patterns and natural feedback loops, such as less ice reflecting sunlight, leading to increased warming at ground level and more ice melt. Native peoples’ ways of life are threatened. Animal migration patterns have changed, and the thin sea ice and thawing tundra make it too dangerous for humans to hunt and travel.
  5. 2004, GLOBAL WARMING TO MELT GREENLAND ICE SHEET
    A meltdown of the massive ice sheet, which is more than 3km-thick would raise sea levels by an average seven meters, threatening countries such as Bangladesh, certain islands in the Pacific and some parts of Florida. Greenland’s huge ice sheet could melt within the next thousand years if emissions of carbon dioxide (CO
    2) and global warming are not reduced.
  6. 2004, RAPID ARCTIC WARMING BRINGS SEA LEVEL RISE
    The Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA) report says: increasing greenhouse gases from human activities is causing the Arctic to warm twice as fast as the rest of the planet; in Alaska, western Canada, and eastern Russia winter temperatures have risen by 2C to 4C in the last 50 years; the Arctic will warm by 4C to 7C by 2100. A portion of Greenland’s ice sheet will melt; global sea levels will rise; global warming will intensify. Greenland contains enough melting ice to raise sea levels by 7 meters; Bangkok, Manila, Dhaka, Florida, Louisiana, and New Jersey are at risk of inundation; thawing permafrost and rising seas threaten Arctic coastal regions; climate change will accelerate and bring about profound ecological and social changes; the Arctic is experiencing the most rapid and severe climate change on earth and it’s going to get a lot worse; Arctic summer sea ice will decline by 50% to 100%polar bears will be driven towards extinction; this report is an urgent SOS for the Arctic; forest fires and insect infestations will increase in frequency and intensity; changing vegetation and rising sea levels will shrink the tundra to its lowest level in 21000 years; vanishing breeding areas for birds and grazing areas for animals will cause extinctions of many species; “if we limit emission of heat trapping carbon dioxide we can still help protect the Arctic and slow global warming”.
  7. 2004 GLOBAL WARMING WILL LEAVE ARCTIC ICE FREE
    The Arctic ice cap is shrinking at an unprecedented rate and will be gone by 2070. It has shrunk by 15%to 20% in the last 30 years. This process will accelerate with the Arctic warming twice as fast as the rest of the world due to a buildup of heat trapping greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.The findings support the broad scientific consensus that global warming is caused mainly by rising atmospheric greenhouse gases as a result of emissions from cars, factories and power plants.
  8. 2005: METHANE BOMB IN THE PEAT BOGS OF SIBERIA
    Man-made global warming is melting the vast peat bogs of Siberia. The melt will release enough methane and carbon dioxide to bring about climate change Armageddon by virtue of a positive feedback and its non-linear process gone berserk. This scare is repeated in 2007 saying that global warming is causing the Alaska coast to melt. More info: [LINK]
  9. 2007: WE PASSED THE CLIMATE CHANGE TIPPING POINT AND ARE DOOMED
    Ahead of the Bali meeting in 2007, climate scientists flooded the media with press releases that were increasingly alarmist in their pitch to save the planet from fossil fuels, so much so that they got carried away and announced that it was too late to save the planet for we had passed the tipping point because the damage done by the carbon dioxide already in the air had put into motion irreversible non-linear changes that would lead us to climate doom whether or not we cut emissions. Soon thereafter, having realized their folly, they quickly reversed themselves just in time for Bali by saying that there was still time to save the planet after all. More info: [LINK]
  10. 2007: OUR USE OF FOSSIL FUELS IS CAUSING GREENLAND TO MELT
    A comparison of Landsat photos taken on 8/11/1985 and 9/5/2002 shows that global warming caused by our use of fossil fuels is melting the massive Greenland ice sheet and exposing the rocky peninsula beneath the ice previously covered by ice. More info: [LINK]
  11. 2007: THE ARCTIC IS SCREAMING
    Climate science declares that the low sea ice extent in the Arctic is the leading indicator of climate change. We are told that the Arctic “is screaming”, that Arctic sea ice extent is the “canary in the coal mine”, and that Polar Bears and other creatures in the Arctic are dying off and facing imminent extinction. Scientists say that the melting sea ice has set up a positive feedback system that would cause the summer melts in subsequent years to be greater and greater until the Arctic becomes ice free in the summer of 2012. We must take action immediately to cut carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels. [LINK]
  12. 2007: THE ICE FREE ARCTIC CLAIMS GAIN MOMENTUM
    The unusual summer melt of Arctic sea ice in 2007 has encouraged climate science to warn the world that global warming will cause a steep decline in the amount of ice left in subsequent summer melts until the Arctic becomes ice free in summer and that could happen as soon as 2080 or maybe 2060 or it could even be 2030. This time table got shorter and shorter until, without a “scientific” explanation, the ice free year was brought up to 2013. In the meantime, the data showed that in 2008 and 2009 the summer melt did not progressively increase as predicted but did just the opposite by making a comeback in 2008 that got even stronger in 2009. More info:  [LINK]
  13. 2007: CLIMATE CHANGE REACHES A TIPPING POINT
    Since 1998, and most recently in 2007, we have been told on a fairly regular basis that climate change caused by our use of fossil fuels has reached the “tipping point”. When asked to define the term they said that it is not a point of no return and that a definition would be forthcoming; but that there is no doubt that we have reached the tipping point in 2007. More info: [LINK]
  14. 2007: CLIMATE ACTION EVEN IF THERE ARE ERRORS IN THE CLIMATE MODEL
    Climate scientists say that errors in their climate model do not detract from the importance of reducing greenhouse gas emissions because the reduction can only do good and can do no harm. They also warn us that contrarians that say otherwise are paid agents of the fossil fuel industry and not real scientists. More info: [LINK]
  15. 2007/2009: POLAR BEARS WILL BE DRIVEN TO EXTINCTION 
    Climate scientists say that the Arctic is on its way to becoming ice free in summer and that therefore the polar bear should be declared an endangered species under the Endangered Species Act and we must act quickly and decisively to cut emissions and turn the climate temperature knob down to where the Polar Bear can survive. More info: [LINK]
  16. 2008: POSITIVE FEEDBACK: ARCTIC SEA ICE IN A DOWNWARD SPIRAL
    Our use of fossil fuels is devastating the Arctic where the volume of sea ice “fell to its lowest recorded level to date” this year and that reduced ice coverage is causing a non-linear acceleration in the loss of polar ice because there is less ice to reflect sunlight. More info: [LINK]
  17. 2008: THE ARCTIC WILL BE ICE FREE IN SUMMER IN 2008, 2013, 2030, OR 2100
    The unusually low summer sea ice extent in the Arctic in 2007
    The IPCC has taken note and has revised its projection of an ice free Arctic first from 2008 to 2013 and then again from 2013 to 2030. The way things are going it may be revised again to the year 2100. More info: [LINK]
  18. 2008: IMMINENT COLLAPSE OF PETERMANN GLACIER IN GREENLAND 
    Climate scientists looking through satellite pictures found a crack in the Petermann glacier in Greenland and concluded that it could speed up sea level rise because huge chunks of ice the size of Manhattan were hemorrhaging off. Yet, scientists who has been travelling to Greenland for years to study glaciers say that the crack in the glacier is normal and not different from other cracks seen in the 1990s. More info: [LINK]
  19. 2008: GLOBAL WARMING IS THE CAUSE OF ALL ICE MELT EVENTS
    When there was a greater focus on Antarctica climate scientists said that global warming was melting the West Antarctic Ice Shelf; but the melting was found to be localized and with an active volcano underneath the melting and the attention of “melt forecast” climate science shifted to Arctic sea ice after the an extensive summer melt was observed in September 2007. More info: [LINK]
  20. 2008: THE POLAR BEAR IS THREATENED BY OUR USE OF FOSSIL FUELS
    The survival of the polar bear is threatened because man made global warming is melting ice in the Arctic. It is true that the Arctic sea ice extent was down in negative territory in September 2007. This event emboldened global warming scaremongers to declare it a climate change disaster caused by greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuels and to issue a series of scenarios about environmental holocaust yet to come. More info: [LINK]
  21. 2009: OUR USE OF FOSSIL FUELS IS CAUSING GREENLAND GLACIERS TO MELT
    Man-made global warming is causing Greenland’s glaciers to melt at an alarming rate. By the year 2100 all the ice there will have melted causing a calamitous rise in the sea level that will inundate Bangladesh, the Maldives, Bangkok, New Orleans, and atolls in the Pacific. More info: [LINK]
  22. 2009: CATASTROPHIC ICE MELT NEEDS TREATY AT COPENHAGEN
    Carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels have caused the following alarming changes to our planet: (1) ice covering the Arctic Ocean shrank in 2007 to its smallest since satellite records began. Melting permafrost in Siberia will release large quantities of methane into the atmosphere and hasten global warming.
  23. 2009: SUMMER ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT IN 2009 THE 3RD LOWEST ON RECORD
    The second lowest was 2008 and the first lowest was 2007. This is not a trend that shows that things are getting worse. It shows that things are getting better and yet it is being sold and being bought as evidence that things are getting worse due to rising fossil fuel emissions. More info: [LINK]
  24. 2009: USE OF FOSSIL FUELS CAUSING GREENLAND’S GLACIERS TO MELT
    In 2005 two glaciers in Greenland were found to be moving faster than they were in 2001. Scientists concluded from these data that the difference observed was a a long term trend of glacial melt in Greenland and that carbon dioxide was the cause of this trend. The assumed trend was then extrapolated forward and we were told that carbon dioxide would cause the land based ice mass of Greenland to be discharged to the sea and raise the sea level by six meters. They said that the only way out of the devastation was to drastically reduce carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels. However, in 2009, just before a meeting in Copenhagen where these deep cuts in emissions were to be negotiated, it was found that the glaciers had returned to their normal rate of discharge. More info: [LINK]
  25. 2009: THREATENED POLAR BEARS “STARE AT THE MELTING POINT”
    Global warming caused by our use of fossil fuels is driving polar bears to extinction and threatening the livelihood of the people of Nunavut. More info: [LINK]
  26. 2009: THE ARCTIC WILL BE ICE FREE IN SUMMER BY 2029
    An alarm is raised that the extreme summer melt of Arctic sea ice in 2007 was caused by humans using fossil fuels and it portends that in 20 years human caused global warming will leave the Arctic Ocean ice-free in the summer raising sea levels and harming wildlife. More info: [LINK]
  27. 2009: WARMING OCEANS MELT GREENLAND GLACIERS
    Some glaciers on north and northeast Greenland terminate in fiords with long glacier tongues that extend into the sea. It is found that the warming of the oceans caused by our use of fossil fuels is melting these icy tongues and raising the specter of devastation by sea level rise. More info: [LINK]
  28. 2009: THE ARCTIC WILL BE ICE FREE IN SUMMER BY THE YEAR 2012
    Climate scientists continue to extrapolate the extreme summer melt of Arctic sea ice in 2007 to claim that the summer melt of 2007 was a climate change event and that it implies that the Arctic will be ice free in the summer from 2012 onwards. This is a devastating effect on the planet and our use of fossil fuels is to blame. More info: [LINK]
  29. 2009: THE SUMMER SEA ICE EXTENT IN THE ARCTIC WILL BE GONE
    Summer melt of Arctic ice was the third most extensive on record in 2009, second 2008, and the most extensive in 2007. These data show that warming due to our carbon dioxide emissions are causing summer Arctic ice to gradually diminish until it will be gone altogether. More info: [LINK]
  30. 2009: GLOBAL WARMING KILLING OFF THE CARIBOU IN THE YUKON
    In 1989 there were 178000 Porcupine caribou in the Yukon and “their number now is estimated to be 100,000” because global warming is killing off the caribou. Global warming causes freezing rain in the calving season and that makes it hard for calving caribou to feed. But if we don’t cherry pick the start of the study period as 1989 and look at all the available data we find that the population rose steadily from 100000 in 1972 to 178000 in 1989 and then decreased steadily down to 120000 in 2005. These data suggest, and caribou biologists agree, that caribou populations go through a 30 to 40-year cycle of growth and decay. This population dynamic cannot be related to global warming or carbon dioxide. More info: [LINK]
  31. 2010: ICELAND IS TOAST: CLIMATE CHANGE CAUSING VOLCANIC ERUPTION
    Fossil fuel emissions cause global warming, global warming in turn causes glaciers in Iceland to melt, and melting glaciers lighten the weight of the ice cap on volcanoes and thereby trigger eruptions (Ice cap thaw may awaken Icelandic volcanoes, April 17, 2010). That it was geothermal activity that caused the melting of the Eyjafjallajoekull glacier is not mentioned. Instead climate science tells us that the we must cut fossil fuel emissions to save Iceland from climate change hell. [LINK] [LINK]
  32. 2010: CLIMATE CHANGE IS KILLING OFF POLAR BEARS AND THE WALRUSES
    Global warming is melting ice in the Arctic and devastating the ecosystem that nurtures the habitats of the Polar Bear and the Walrus. Urgent climate action is needed to save these great creatures of the North. More info: [LINK]

University of California Division of Agriculture and Natural Resources -  UCTV - University of California Television

40% OF CALIFORNIA’S FORESTLAND IS OWNED BY FAMILIES, NATIVE AMERICAN TRIBES, AND THE TIMBER BUSINESS. TIMBER COMPANIES OWN 5 MILLION ACRES OF FOREST IN CALIFORNIA. FAMILIES AND INDIVIDUALS OWN ABOUT 9 MILLION ACRES. THAT COMPARES WITH 19 MILLION ACRES OF FORESTS MANAGED BY THE GOVERNMENT. THUS, ROUGHLY SPEAKING, 60% OF THE FORESTS IN CALIFORNIA ARE STATE MANAGED AND 40% ARE OWNED AND MANAGED BY CORPORATIONS OR FAMILIES. THESE DATA ARE PROVIDED BY THE UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA AGRICULTURE AND NATURAL RESOURCES. THEY CAN BE REACHED AT UCANR.EDU

IN THE WILDFIRE DEVASTATION OF 2020 IN CALIFORNIA, 3.5 MILLION ACRES WERE BURNED REPRESENTING ABOUT 10% OF ALL FOREST LANDS AND 18% OF GOVERNMENT MANAGED FOREST LANDS. ALL OF THESE FIRES OCCURRED ON GOVERNMENT MANAGED FORESTS. THUS, IN SUMMARY, IN THE 2020 FOREST FIRE DEVASTATION IN CALIFORNIA THAT HAS BEEN ATTRIBUTED TO CLIMATE CHANGE, 18% OF GOVERNMENT MANAGED FORESTS WERE BURNED AND EXACTLY ZERO PERCENT OF PRIVATELY OWNED FORESTS WERE BURNED.

GOVERNMENT MANAGED FORESTS

What's expected for the 2020 California wildfire season? | AccuWeather
Gavin Newsom press conference today: 2020 California fires are 25 times  worse than 2019 season, governor says - ABC7 San Francisco

Coronavirus raises big worries over California wildfires - Los Angeles Times

PRIVATELY MANAGED FORESTS

Wealthy Families Are Adding Forests to Their Portfolios - Bloomberg
New Forests expands 'climate-smart' timber holdings in Northern California  | ImpactAlpha
Environmentalists plan logging to restore redwood forests
Timber Companies Have the Opportunity to Protect Forests Long Term -  Pacific Standard

THE CLAIM THAT THESE FIRES WERE CAUSED BY CLIMATE CHANGE NEEDS THE EXPLANATION OF WHY OR HOW CLIMATE CHANGE SELECTED ONLY GOVERNMENT FORESTS TO BURN.

THE IMPLICATION OF THIS ODDITY IS THAT THE FOREST FIRES OF 2020 IN CALIFORNIA MUST BE UNDERSTOOD NOT IN TERMS OF CLIMATE CHANGE BUT IN TERMS OF FOREST MANAGEMENT PRACTICES.

Newsom announces new funding for wildfires, proposes 911 fee

POSTSCRIPT: THIS POST WAS INSPIRED BY A QUESTION ASKED ONLINE BY TL WINSLOW ABOUT THE FATE OF PRIVATE FORESTS IN CALIFORNIA. THANK YOU MR WINSLOW.

LINK TO TL WINSLOW

main article image
Two-hundred-year drought doomed Indus Valley Civilization : Nature News &  Comment
Indus civilization | History, Location, Map, Art, & Facts | Britannica

THIS POST IS A CRITICAL REVIEW OF A SCIENCE ALERT REPORT THAT IN SEPTEMBER 2020 CLIMATE SCIENTISTS USED MATH TO DISCOVER THE BRONZE AGE COLLAPSE AND ITS EXTENSION TO THE INDUS VALLEY CIVILIZATION.

LINK TO THE SCIENCE ALERT ARTICLE: https://www.sciencealert.com/maths-shows-how-an-ancient-civilisation-was-toppled-by-climate-change

LINK TO RELATED POST ON THE BRONZE AGE COLLAPSE https://tambonthongchai.com/2018/08/16/collapse/

PART-1: THE SCIENCE ALERT ARTICLE SAYS

Math Shows How Famed Indus Valley Civilization May Have Been Toppled by Climate Change. DAVID NIELD, 12 SEPTEMBER 2020:

There are competing hypotheses around the decline of the Indus Valley Civilization in South Asia some 3,000 years ago, but a new mathematical proof has identified that climate change could have been responsible. Mathematical scientist Nishant Malik from the Rochester Institute of Technology crunched the numbers and found new evidence to back up the idea that shifting monsoon seasons and increasing drought might have helped bring about the collapse of the Bronze Age empire. By analysing the presence of a particular isotope in stalagmites in a North Indian cave – which should reveal the amount of water that fell as rain over time – scientists have previously been able to estimate monsoon rainfall in the region over the past 5,700 years. In the new research, Malik was able to identify patterns in this data showing a major shift in monsoon patterns as the civilization began to rise, and then a reverse shift that matched its decline.

“Usually the data we get when analysing palaeoclimate is a short time series with noise and uncertainty in it,” says Malik. “As far as mathematics and climate is concerned, the tool we use very often in understanding climate and weather is dynamical systems. But dynamical systems theory is harder to apply to palaeoclimate data. “This new method can find transitions in the most challenging time series, including palaeoclimate, which are short, have some amount of uncertainty, and have noise in them.”

What Malik is particularly interested in here is dynamical regime transition, where rare events suddenly become more likely. This has applications across physics, biology, and economics, from changes in precipitation patterns to the stock market. Mixing parts of this dynamical theory together with elements of algorithm-based machine learning and information theory, Malik was able to artificially fill in some of the gaps in the record, as well as calculate the probability of patterns that otherwise wouldn’t have shown up in standard graphs.

As Malik says, this is a good fit for digging into past climate data, where there are often big gaps in estimates about statistics such as rainfall. In the case of the stalagmite record, for example, they only really mark the summer monsoon season every five years. The Indus Valley Civilization – sometimes known as the Harappan Civilization, named after the first of its sites to be excavated by archaeologists – was one of the three early civilizations in the north-western part of South Asia, alongside ancient Egypt and Mesopotamia. It’s thought that settlements up the Indus river stretched for some 1,500 kilometres (932 miles) when the civilization was at its peak, with some of its cities perhaps reaching as many as 60,000 inhabitants.

Now, through a clever application of mathematics, we’re more sure than ever that it was climate change – rather than earthquakes or war as other experts have suggested – that caused the Indus Valley people to disperse to new areas.

The research has been published in Chaos: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science.

CRITICAL COMMENTARY

The climate science of the ancient world discovered here by clever mathematics is part of a well known and well documented historical event known as the Late Bronze Age Collapse (LBAC). This event is described in some detail in a related post with reference to the Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW) climate change alarm of of our time. This is not the first time that the LBAC was invoked in the context of AGW as Sir whatshisname has used it repeatedly in his “collapse of civilization” fearology lectures to push for climate action. LINK TO THE LBAC POST: https://tambonthongchai.com/2018/08/16/collapse/

Sir David Attenborough documentary, Climate Change - The Facts « Hampshire  Friends of the Earth Network

Briefly the late Bronze Age civilization was the ultimate expression of the Neolithic Revolution that had created a global economy based on agriculture. This civilization evolved with the control of agricultural lands by kings and their armies, technological innovations such as pottery, metal works, brick-making, and the construction of elaborate buildings and structures such as the pyramids and the giant brick structures of Harappa, and most of all the invention of cross ocean shipping in giant paddle ships and the world trade they facilitated. The geographical extent of the Bronze Age global economy extended from Greece, through Egypt and Syria to Harappa.

The Greek Age of Bronze - Ships
3,500-Year-Old Advanced Minoan Technology Was 'Lost Art' Not Seen Again  Until 1950s | Ancient Origins

Bronze Age civilisation was destroyed by a 'perfect storm': Ancient Egypt  and other societies collapsed due to climate change, war and earthquakes |  Daily Mail Online
The ruins of Harappa, the Indus Valley Civilisation | Harappan, Indus  valley civilization, Mohenjo daro

Then, around 1200 BC or so give or take 50 years, the archaeological and textual data show that the lights went out on the LBA. A long gap of more than a 200 years of a Dark Age followed with no evidence of the great LBA global economy until the Early Iron Age-1 when an entirely new kind of global economy grew from the ashes of the LBAC.

The big question is “what happened?”. The honest answer is that we don’t know and we will likely never know. But it is possible to construct theories that are consistent with the available archaeological, textual, and paleo-climate data.

The two most popular theories are the Sea Peoples theory (see Drews 1993 below) and the climate change theory (Finkelstein, Weiss, Kaniewski, Drake, and others).  The paleo data show that one of the many warming events of the Holocene had occurred in the Late Bronze Age [LINK] . This warming event was an extreme high temperature condition (see chart below) that is thought to have caused widespread droughts from Egypt to Harappa. A deadly feature of these droughts is that they are thought to have persisted over centennial time scales and it is this length of the drought events that is thought to be what ended the Bronze Age civilization.

minoan5

After centuries of a “dead” period, human civilization re-emerged in what is known as the Iron Age about 2,400 years ago give or take a century and the civilization that we live in now. It gave us Judaism and Christianity and similar religions that had a common theme involving “the end of the world”, a religion feature not found in Bronze Age religions.

Religions prior to the LBAC do not contain a Judgement Day “end of the world” of any kind even though some of them have different versions of heaven and hell mostly in after-lives or in places deep under the ground. However, religions that got started in the Early Iron Age right after the Dark Ages of the LBAC do contain a catastrophic end of the world of some kind (See Matthew 24 below) where the LBAC events are described with chilling accuracy. It is likely that the existence of doomology in our time in the form of an obsession with collapse of civilization similar to the LBAC, but framed in terms of current events such as the industrial economy, climate change, or population growth, derive from a distant genetic memory of the LBAC.

CONCLUSION: Modern iron age humans carry a doomsday gene that creates the genetic memory of the LBAC and that explains our obsession with doom as in the population bomb and the climate bomb and other end of the world scenarios listed in a related post: LINK TO END OF THE WORLD POST: https://tambonthongchai.com/2019/04/16/theend/ .

It is noteworthy that the only example of the kind of collapse of civilization now being forecast and attributed to fossil fuel emissions of the industrial economy was achieved without fossil fuel emissions and without an industrial economy in an age to which climate scientists aspire and which they fondly recall as “pre-industrial”

Five times the world didn't end - BBC Bitesize

MATTHEW 24: When the disciples came up to Jesus to call his attention to its buildings. “Do you see all these things? Truly I tell you, not one stone here will be left on another; every one will be thrown down. Nation will rise against nation, and kingdom against kingdom. There will be famines and earthquakes in various places and then the end will come. Then let those who are in Judea flee to the mountains. Let no one on the housetop go down to take anything out of the house. Let no one in the field go back to get their cloak. How dreadful it will be in those days for pregnant women and nursing mothers! Pray that your flight will not take place in winter or on the Sabbath. For then there will be great distress, unequaled from the beginning of the world until now and never to be equaled again.Immediately after the distress of those days the sun will be darkened, and the moon will not give its light the stars will fall from the sky and the heavenly bodies will be shaken.

RELEVANT BIBLIOGRAPHY

Chew, Sing C. “From Harappa to Mesopotamia and Egypt to Mycenae: Dark Ages, Political-Economic Declines, and Environmental/Climatic Changes 2200 BC–700 BC.” The historical evolution of world-systems. Palgrave Macmillan, New York, 2005. 52-74. Considerations of hegemonic decline as a world historical process most often attempt to account for decline and collapse of complex institutions in terms of social, political, and economic processes (Gills and Frank 1992). As we increasingly question whether there are physical–environmental limits that would affect the reproduction of world-systems, political, economic, and social dimensions might not be sufficient to account for hegemonic declines. Consideration of environmental and climatological factors needs to be combined with socioeconomic relations in our understanding of hegemonic declines and shifts. This approach assumes that the humans seek to transform nature in an expansive manner, and ceaselessly amass surpluses. There are certain long periods in world history that exhibit large economic and social crises and hegemonic decline. Such long periods of economic and social distress are here termed dark ages.

Thompson, Thomas J. “An Ancient Stateless Civilization: Bronze Age India and the State in History.” The Independent Review 10.3 (2006): 365-384.

Chew, Sing C. “Ecological Relations and the Decline of Civilizations in the Bronze Age World System: Mesopotamia and Harappa– BC.” Ecology and the world-system (1999).

Frank, Andre Gunder, et al. “Bronze Age world system cycles [and comments and reply].” Current Anthropology 34.4 (1993): 383-429.

1982: Weiss, Barry. “The decline of Late Bronze Age civilization as a possible response to climatic change.” Climatic Change 4.2 (1982): 173-198. The disintegration of Eastern Mediterranean civilization at the end of the late Bronze Age (late thirteenth and twelfth centuries B.C.) has traditionally been attributed to the irruption of new peoples into this area. However, the nearly contemporaneous decline of highly organized and powerful states in Greece, Anatolia, Egypt, and Mesopotamia warrants consideration of possible environmental causes likely to operate over sizable areas, especially since archaeological research has not succeeded in establishing the presence of newcomers at the onset of the Bronze Age disturbances. Climatic change is a particularly attractive candidate since temperature and precipitation variations persisting over relatively short times can adversely affect agricultural output. Carpenter (1966) argued that the Mycenaean decline and migrations in and from Greece in the late thirteenth century were caused by prolonged drought and not the incursion of less civilized Dorian tribes. Donley (1971) and Bryson et al. (1974) have presented evidence of a spatial drought pattern which occurred in January 1955 that might be invoked to support this thesis. Population movements in Anatolia at the same time, though not as well established, can be delimited to some degree by the distribution of Hitto-Luwian peoples in the late ninth century B.C. It is hypothesized here that a drought induced migration of Luwian peoples from Western Antolia occurred early in the twelfth century B.C., that it was associated in some fashion with the invasion of Egypt by the ‘Sea Peoples’ in the reign of Ramesses III, and that the defeated remnants of these peoples settled along the Levantine coast and filtered into North Syria and the upper Euphrates valley. It has been suggested that past climatic patterns recur in the present epoch but with a possibly different frequency. To establish that a spatial drought analogue to the above hypothesized migration can occur, temperature and precipitation records from 35 Greek, Turkish, Cypriot, and Syrian weather stations for the period 1951–1976 were examined. The Palmer drought index, an empirical method of measuring drought severity, was computed for each of these stations for the period of record. Since wheat yields tend to be highly correlated with winter precipitation for the area in question, the drought indices for the winter months were subjected to an empirical eigenvector analysis. An eigenvector (drought pattern) consistent with the postulated population movements in Anatolia occurred within the modern climatological record and was found to have been the dominant pattern in January 1972. The potential problems of eigenvector analysis in investigating problems of this type are discussed.

1993: Drews, Robert. BOOK: “The end of the Bronze Age.” Changes in Warfare and the Catastrophe ca 1200 (1993): 113-129. BOOK REVIEW: {Note: this is the older sea people’s theory that is now challenged by the climate change theory}. A seafaring sword and shield armed infantry defeated and destroyed cities, armies and civilizations based on chariots. Stopped only in the marshes of Egypt, where they were assimilated into the Egyptian army and settled along the coasts of The Levant (the Biblical reference to the Philistines). The author doesn’t comment on how this parallels very similar events in 800 AD, where the sword and shield armed troops are the Vikings; and the mounted opponents are the Carolingians.The weakness in the book is that it doesn’t exactly explain how a loose order infantry could defeat chariots in the open. Most men run away when someone on a horse threatens to ride them down. And how does a man with a sword actually kill a man on a chariot? I also felt that the issue of whether the Sea Peoples weapons, iron versus bronze, was poorly addressed. If the Sea Peoples were not using iron weapons, then who did bring iron weapons to global prominence in this period?Also, an alternative theory on the end of the Bronze Age is that the Trojan war was real; the Sea Peoples were the Greeks who sacked Troy, who then went on a Med wide rampage and eventually settled as the Philistines. Would like to have seen this theory addressed…..Stimulating work, may need an update.4 of 4 people found the following review helpful. Notewory by Peter G. TsourasThis is one of those books that brings light to a distant but formative stage in history when the seemingly stable world of the late near eastern bronze age collapsed suddenly. The author makes good sense of the fragments of information that have survived. He pieces together the systemic collapse of the Mycenaean world and the forces that it unleashed against the already weakened Hititte Empire and sent like a growing storm to devastate the region from Anatolia to Canaan only to dash itself against the last might of Egypt. I highly recommend this book to anyone interested in the Greek Bronze Age as well as the other contemporary cultures of the eastern Mediterranean as well as to anyone interested in the evolution of the art of war. FULL TEXT

1997: Weiss, Harvey. “Late third millennium abrupt climate change and social collapse in West Asia and Egypt.” Third millennium BC climate change and Old World collapse. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg, 1997. 711-723. The palaeoenvironmental record for the 2200 BC abrupt climate change is synthesized. Alternative explanations for synchronous and extended Old World social collapse are examined and rejected. Quantification of the abrupt climate change is necessary if we are to understand its social consequences. FULL TEXT

2010: Kaniewski, David, et al. “Late second–early first millennium BC abrupt climate changes in coastal Syria and their possible significance for the history of the Eastern Mediterranean.” Quaternary Research 74.2 (2010): 207-215. The alluvial deposits near Gibala-Tell Tweini provide a unique record of environmental history and food availability estimates covering the Late Bronze Age and the Early Iron Age. The refined pollen-derived climatic proxy suggests that drier climatic conditions occurred in the Mediterranean belt of Syria from the late 13th/early 12th centuries BC to the 9th century BC. This period corresponds with the time frame of the Late Bronze Age collapse and the subsequent Dark Age. The abrupt climate change at the end of the Late Bronze Age caused region-wide crop failures, leading towards socio-economic crises and unsustainability, forcing regional habitat-tracking. Archaeological data show that the first conflagration of Gibala occurred simultaneously with the destruction of the capital city Ugarit currently dated between 1194 and 1175 BC. Gibala redeveloped shortly after this destruction, with large-scale urbanization visible in two main architectural phases during the Early Iron Age I. The later Iron Age I city was destroyed during a second conflagration, which is radiocarbon-dated at circa 2950 cal yr BP. The data from Gibala-Tell Tweini provide evidence in support of the drought hypothesis as a triggering factor behind the Late Bronze Age collapse in the Eastern Mediterranean.

2011: Kaniewski, David, et al. “The Sea Peoples, from cuneiform tablets to carbon dating.” PloS one 6.6 (2011): e20232. The 13th century BC witnessed the zenith of the Aegean and Eastern Mediterranean civilizations which declined at the end of the Bronze Age, ∼3200 years ago. Weakening of this ancient flourishing Mediterranean world shifted the political and economic centres of gravity away from the Levant towards Classical Greece and Rome, and led, in the long term, to the emergence of the modern western civilizations. Textual evidence from cuneiform tablets and Egyptian reliefs from the New Kingdom relate that seafaring tribes, the Sea Peoples, were the final catalyst that put the fall of cities and states in motion. However, the lack of a stratified radiocarbon-based archaeology for the Sea People event has led to a floating historical chronology derived from a variety of sources spanning dispersed areas. Here, we report a stratified radiocarbon-based archaeology with anchor points in ancient epigraphic-literary sources, Hittite-Levantine-Egyptian kings and astronomical observations to precisely date the Sea People event. By confronting historical and science-based archaeology, we establish an absolute age range of 1192–1190 BC for terminal destructions and cultural collapse in the northern Levant. This radiocarbon-based archaeology has far-reaching implications for the wider Mediterranean, where an elaborate network of international relations and commercial activities are intertwined with the history of civilizations.

2012: Drake, Brandon L. “The influence of climatic change on the Late Bronze Age Collapse and the Greek Dark Ages.” Journal of Archaeological Science 39.6 (2012): 1862-1870. Between the 13th and 11th centuries BCE, most Greek Bronze Age Palatial centers were destroyed and/or abandoned. The following centuries were typified by low population levels. Data from oxygen-isotope speleothems, stable carbon isotopes, alkenone-derived sea surface temperatures, and changes in warm-species dinocysts and formanifera in the Mediterranean indicate that the Early Iron Age was more arid than the preceding Bronze Age. A sharp increase in Northern Hemisphere temperatures preceded the collapse of Palatial centers, a sharp decrease occurred during their abandonment. Mediterranean Sea surface temperatures cooled rapidly during the Late Bronze Age, limiting freshwater flux into the atmosphere and thus reducing precipitation over land. These climatic changes could have affected Palatial centers that were dependent upon high levels of agricultural productivity. Declines in agricultural production would have made higher-density populations in Palatial centers unsustainable. The ‘Greek Dark Ages’ that followed occurred during prolonged arid conditions that lasted until the Roman Warm Period. {Notes: Stable carbon isotopes from radiocarbon-dated pollen can indicate paleoclimate, Mediterranean sea surface temperatures (SST) indicate precipitation patterns, The Bronze Age Collapse is contemporaneous with a sharp drop in temperatures (GISP2), The Bronze Age Collapse and Greek Dark Ages may result from the same arid period.

2013: Langgut, Dafna, Israel Finkelstein, and Thomas Litt. “Climate and the Late Bronze Collapse: new evidence from the Southern Levant.” Tel Aviv 40.2 (2013): 149-175. A core drilled from the Sea of Galilee was subjected to high resolution pollen analysis for the Bronze and Iron Ages. The detailed pollen diagram (sample/~40 yrs) was used to reconstruct past climate changes and human impact on the vegetation of the Mediterranean zone of the southern Levant. The chronology is based on radiocarbon dating of short-lived terrestrial organic material. The results indicate that the driest event throughout the Bronze and Iron Ages occurred ~1250–1100 BCE—at the end of the Late Bronze Age. This arid phase was identified based on a significant decrease in Mediterranean tree values, denoting a reduction in precipitation and the shrinkage of the Mediterranean forest/maquis. The Late Bronze dry event was followed by dramatic recovery in the Iron I, evident in the increased percentages of both Mediterranean trees and cultivated olive trees. Archaeology indicates that the crisis in the eastern Mediterranean at the end of the Late Bronze Age took place during the same period—from the mid- 13th century to ca. 1100 BCE. In the Levant the crisis years are represented by destruction of a large number of urban centres, shrinkage of other major sites, hoarding activities and changes in settlement patterns. Textual evidence from several places in the Ancient Near East attests to drought and famine starting in the mid-13th and continuing until the second half of the 12th century. All this helps to better understand the ‘Crisis Years’ in the eastern Mediterranean at the end of the Late Bronze Age and the quick settlement recovery in the Iron I, especially in the highlands of the Levant.

2013: Kaniewski, David, et al. “Environmental roots of the Late Bronze Age crisis.” PLoS One 8.8 (2013): e71004. The Late Bronze Age world of the Eastern Mediterranean, a rich linkage of Aegean, Egyptian, Syro-Palestinian, and Hittite civilizations, collapsed famously 3200 years ago and has remained one of the mysteries of the ancient world since the event’s retrieval began in the late 19thcentury AD/CE. Iconic Egyptian bas-reliefs and graphic hieroglyphic and cuneiform texts portray the proximate cause of the collapse as the invasions of the “Peoples-of-the-Sea” at the Nile Delta, the Turkish coast, and down into the heartlands of Syria and Palestine where armies clashed, famine-ravaged cities abandoned, and countrysides depopulated. Here we report palaeoclimate data from Cyprus for the Late Bronze Age crisis, alongside a radiocarbon-based chronology integrating both archaeological and palaeoclimate proxies, which reveal the effects of abrupt climate change-driven famine and causal linkage with the Sea People invasions in Cyprus and Syria. The statistical analysis of proximate and ultimate features of the sequential collapse reveals the relationships of climate-driven famine, sea-borne-invasion, region-wide warfare, and politico-economic collapse, in whose wake new societies and new ideologies were created.

2014: Armit, Ian, et al. “Rapid climate change did not cause population collapse at the end of the European Bronze Age.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 111.48 (2014): 17045-17049. The impact of rapid climate change on humans is of contemporary global interest. Present-day debates are necessarily informed by paleoclimate studies in which climate is often assumed, without sufficient critical attention, to be the primary driver of societal change. Using new methods to analyze paleoclimatic and archeological datasets, we overturn the deterministic idea that population collapse at the end of the northwestern European Bronze Age was caused by rapid climate change. Our work demonstrates the necessity of high-precision chronologies in evaluating human responses to rapid climate change. It will be significant for geoscientists, climate change scientists, and archeologists. The impact of rapid climate change on contemporary human populations is of global concern. To contextualize our understanding of human responses to rapid climate change it is necessary to examine the archeological record during past climate transitions. One episode of abrupt climate change has been correlated with societal collapse at the end of the northwestern European Bronze Age. We apply new methods to interrogate archeological and paleoclimate data for this transition in Ireland at a higher level of precision than has previously been possible. We analyze archeological 14C dates to demonstrate dramatic population collapse and present high-precision proxy climate data, analyzed through Bayesian methods, to provide evidence for a rapid climatic transition at ca. 750 calibrated years B.C. Our results demonstrate that this climatic downturn did not initiate population collapse and highlight the non-deterministic nature of human responses to past climate change.

This civilization

University of Delaware Professor; Climate Change Denier Hired at - WBOC-TV  16, Delmarvas News Leader, FOX 21 -
Cheers! NPR: 'Scientist Who Denies Climate Change Hired At NOAA By Trump  Administration' – Great news for science! Climatologist Dr. David Legates  to join NOAA | Climate Depot

THIS POST IS A CRITICAL EVALUATION OF THE RESPONSE BY THE MEDIA AND BY CLIMATE SCIENTISTS OPPOSING THE APPOINTMENT OF DAVID LEGATES TO THE NOAA.

MEDIA REPORT #1

University of Delaware Professor; Climate Change Denier Hired at NOAA,
By Zachary Parnes: University of Delaware Professor David Legates has been hired by the NOAA. The move has caused climate change scientists to raise eyebrows; as Legates has long disputed and rejected various theories regarding climate change. Legates, who is the new Deputy Assistant Secretary of Commerce for Observation and Prediction, has long used his position as a academic to doubt climate research. He was once the State Climatologist for Delaware, but resigned from the position in 2011. Legates authored a paper that questioned previous findings about the direct correlation between climate change, and the destruction of the Arctic glaciers. that research was funded by groups including ExxonMobil and the American Petroleum Institute. Legates currently works for the University of Delaware in the Geography and Spatial Sciences department.

MEDIA REPORT #2

Longtime Climate Science Denier Hired At NOAA, REBECCA HERSHER. The appointment of a climate change denier to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration comes as Americans face profound threats stoked by climate change, from the vast, deadly wildfires in the West to an unusually active hurricane season in the South and East. David Legates, a University of Delaware professor of climatology who has spent much of his career questioning basic tenets of climate science, has been hired for a top position at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Legates confirmed to NPR that he was recently hired as NOAA’s deputy assistant secretary of commerce for observation and prediction. The position suggests that he reports directly to Neil Jacobs, the acting head of the agency that is in charge of the federal government’s sprawling weather and climate prediction work. Neither Legates nor NOAA representatives responded to questions about Legates’ specific responsibilities or why he was hired. The White House also declined to comment. NOAA Chief Scientist Says Move To Contradict Agency And Back Trump Was Political.

Legates has a long history of using his position as an academic scientist to publicly cast doubt on climate science. His appointment to NOAA comes as Americans face profound threats stoked by climate change, from the vast, deadly wildfires in the West to an unusually active hurricane season in the South and East. Global temperatures have already risen nearly 2 degrees Fahrenheit since the late 19th century as a result of greenhouse gas emissions from burning fossil fuels. Warming is happening the fastest at the Earth’s poles, where sea ice is melting, permafrost is thawing and ocean temperatures are heating up, with devastating effects on animals and humans alike.

In 2007, Legates was one of the authors of a paper that questioned previous findings about the role of climate change in destroying the habitat of polar bears. That research was partially funded by grants from Koch Industries, the American Petroleum Institute lobbying group and ExxonMobil, according to InsideClimate News. The same year, Delaware Gov. Ruth Ann Minner sent a letter to Legates expressing concern about his opinions on climate change, given that he was the state climatologist at the time. Minner asked him to refrain from casting doubt on climate science when he was acting in his official role. Legates stepped down in 2011. Legates also appeared in a video pushing the discredited theory that the sun is the cause of global warming. In testimony before the U.S. Senate in 2014, Legates argued that a climate science report by the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change erroneously stated that humans are causing global warming.

Legates is a professor in the Department of Geography and Spatial Sciences at the University of Delaware. He is also affiliated with the Heartland Institute, a think tank that has poured money into convincing Americans that climate change is not happening and that the scientific evidence — including evidence published by the agency that now employs Legates — is uncertain or untrustworthy. Advocates who reject mainstream climate science, such as those at Heartland, have had a leading role in shaping the Trump administration’s response to global warming, including the decision to exit the Paris climate accord. Steve Milloy, a Heartland board member and part of Trump’s Environmental Protection Agency transition team, says he welcomes the Legates appointment. “David Legates is a true climate scientist and will bring a great deal of much-needed science to NOAA,” Milloy writes in an email to NPR.

But climate researchers slammed NOAA’s decision to appoint Legates to a key scientific position. “He’s not just in left field — he’s not even near the ballpark,” says Jane Lubchenco, a professor of marine biology at Oregon State University and head of NOAA under President Barack Obama. Contrarians in science are welcome, Lubchenco says, but their claims have to be scientifically defensible. That’s why official groups like the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change review the entire range of scientific research before reaching a conclusion and yet, over the last 20 years, in his work and public statements, Legates has rejected the overwhelming peer-reviewed research that shows human activity is the main driver of a dangerously changing climate.

Michael Mann, professor of atmospheric science at Pennsylvania State University, says that Legates has, throughout his career, “misrepresented the science of climate change, serving as an advocate for polluting interests as he dismisses and downplays the impacts of climate change and at a time when those impacts are playing out before our very eyes in the form of unprecedented wildfires out West and super-storms back East, I cannot imagine a more misguided decision than to appoint someone like Legates to a position of leadership at an agency that is tasked with assessing the risks we face from extreme weather events.”

SUMMARY OF THE CHARGE AGAINST LEGATES

It appears that the objection to the appointment of Legates to the NOAA is the evaluation by the media and by climate scientists Michael Mann and Jane Lubchenko that:

  1. Legates has misrepresented the science of climate change.
  2. Legates is an advocate for polluting interests.
  3. Legates dismisses and downplays the impacts of climate change.
  4. The appointment of Legates to the NOAA comes at a time when climate change impacts are playing out before our very eyes in the form of unprecedented wildfires out West and super-storms back East.
  5. Legates’ claims are not scientifically defensible.
  6. U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change review the entire range of scientific research before reaching a conclusion. These conclusions are therefore irrefutable.
  7. Legates has rejected the overwhelming peer-reviewed research that shows human activity is the main driver of a dangerously changing climate.
  8. Legates is affiliated with the Heartland Institute, a think tank that has poured money into convincing Americans that climate change is not happening and that the scientific evidence is uncertain or untrustworthy.
  9. The Legate appointment to the NOAA has been welcomed by climate deniers.
  10. The Legates paper that questioned the climate science finding that climate change in destroying the habitat of polar bears was funded by the Koch Brothers, the American Petroleum Institute, and ExxonMobil.
  11. Delaware Gov. Ruth Ann Minner did not approve of Legates’ climate denial and that forced Legates to step down as state climatologist for Delaware.
  12. Legates disputes and rejects various theories regarding climate change and doubts climate research.
  13. Legates authored a paper that questioned previous findings about the direct correlation between climate change, and the destruction of the Arctic glaciers and that research was funded by ExxonMobil and the American Petroleum Institute.
  14. Legates used his position as an academic scientist to publicly cast doubt on climate science.

CRITICAL RESPONSE TO THESE CHARGES

That the findings by Legates are inconsistent with findings by the IPCC and by a vast majority of climate scientists in and of itself does not provide evidence that these findings are therefore incorrect. The same argument applies to the source of funding. The correctness of a research finding cannot be determined by whether the research was funded by the Koch Brothers or by the Rockefeller Foundation.

We provide below a sample of research by Legates that summarize the findings and the methodology. That his science and his conclusions are incorrect must be shown by scientific and statistical arguments in each case. No such analysis or argument against the research credibility of Legates has been provided.

The negative response to the Legates appointment summarized above is not credible. The arguments presented do not show that that Legates has erred in his research methodology or conclusions. They show only that the person making these argument does not find the finding acceptable. Argument against research findings that derive from emotional or advocacy objections do not have a science interpretation. They have more in common with superstition than with science.

LINK TO POST ON SUPERSTITION: https://tambonthongchai.com/2018/08/03/confirmationbias/

Fossil Fuel Industry Continues Wrath on Renowned Climate Scientist Michael  Mann - EcoWatch
Q and A: Jane Lubchenco | Science | Smithsonian Magazine
Rebecca Hersher | News Break

A SAMPLE OF CLIMATE CHANGE RESEARCH BY LEGATES WITH VARIOUS CO-AUTHORS

Cheers! NPR: 'Scientist Who Denies Climate Change Hired At NOAA By Trump  Administration' – Great news for science! Climatologist Dr. David Legates  to join NOAA | Climate Depot

Limitations of climate models as predictors of climate change.” Brief analysis 396 (2002). Climate is to some degree a representation of the average of weather events that occur. If the frequency and locations of weather events are simulated inaccurately or not at all, the reliability of climate change prognostications is undermined. While GCMs cannot be
expected to simulate future weather, they should be able to accurately depict the earth’s present climate and vitality. Since they cannot, GCM predictions of climate change are statistical exercises with little bearing on
reality
. http://www.ncpathinktank.org/pdfs/ba396.pdf

“The continuing search for an anthropogenic climate change signal: Limitations of correlation‐based approaches.” Geophysical Research Letters 24.18 (1997): 2319-2322. Several recent studies claim to have found evidence of large‐scale climate changes that were attributed to human influences. These assertions are based on increases in correlation over time between general circulation model prognostications and observations as derived from a centred pattern correlation statistic. We argue that the results of such studies are inappropriate because of limitations and biases in these statistics which leads us to conclude that the results of many studies employing these statistics may be erroneous and, in fact, show little evidence of a human fingerprint in the observed records. FULL TEXT PDF: https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/97GL02207

“Impacts of land use/land cover change on climate and future research priorities.” Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 91.1 (2010): 37-46. Regional variations in radiative forcing may have important regional and global climatic implications that are not resolved by the concept of global mean radiative forcing. Tropospheric aerosols and landscape changes have particularly heterogeneous forcings. To date, there have been only limited studies of regional radiative forcing and response. Indeed, it is not clear how best to diagnose a regional forcing and response in the observational record; regional forcings can lead to global climate responses, while global forcings can be associated with regional climate responses. Regional diabatic heating can also cause atmospheric teleconnections that influence regional climate thousands of kilometers away from the point of forcing. Improving societally relevant projections of regional climate impacts will require a better understanding of the magnitudes of regional forcings and the associated climate responses. FULL TEXT PDF; https://digitalcommons.unl.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1399&context=natrespapers

Land cover changes and their biogeophysical effects on climate.” International journal of climatology 34.4 (2014): 929-953. Land cover changes (LCCs) play an important role in the climate system. Research over recent decades highlights the impacts of these changes on atmospheric temperature, humidity, cloud cover, circulation, and precipitation. These impacts range from the local‐ and regional‐scale to sub‐continental and global‐scale. It has been found that the impacts of regional‐scale LCC in one area may also be manifested in other parts of the world as a climatic teleconnection. In light of these findings, this article provides an overview and synthesis of some of the most notable types of LCC and their impacts on climate. These LCC types include agriculture, deforestation and afforestation, desertification, and urbanization. In addition, this article provides a discussion on challenges to, and future research directions in, assessing the climatic impacts of LCC. FULL TEXT PDF: https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/joc.3736

Climate consensus and ‘misinformation’: A rejoinder to Agnotology, scientific consensus, and the teaching and learning of climate changeScience & Education 24.3 (2015): 299-318. Agnotology is the study of how ignorance arises via circulation of misinformation calculated to mislead. Legates et al. (Sci Educ 22:2007–2017, 2013) had questioned the applicability of agnotology to politically-charged debates. In their reply, Bedford and Cook (Sci Educ 22:2019–2030, 2013), seeking to apply agnotology to climate science, asserted that fossil-fuel interests had promoted doubt about a climate consensus. Their definition of climate ‘misinformation’ was contingent upon the post-modernist assumptions that scientific truth is discernible by measuring a consensus among experts, and that a near unanimous consensus exists. However, inspection of a claim by Cook et al. (Environ Res Lett 8:024024, 2013) of 97.1 % consensus, heavily relied upon by Bedford and Cook, shows just 0.3 % endorsement of the standard definition of consensus: that most warming since 1950 is anthropogenic. Agnotology, then, is a two-edged sword since either side in a debate may claim that general ignorance arises from misinformation allegedly circulated by the other. Significant questions about anthropogenic influences on climate remain. Therefore, Legates et al. appropriately asserted that partisan presentations of controversies stifle debate and have no place in education. FULL TEXT: https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11191-013-9647-9

Reconstructing climatic and environmental changes of the past 1000 years: a reappraisal.” Energy & Environment 14.2-3 (2003): 233-296. The 1000-year climatic and environmental history of the Earth contained in various proxy records is examined. As indicators, the proxies duly represent or record aspects of local climate. Questions on the relevance and validity of the locality paradigm for climatological research become sharper as studies of climatic changes on timescales of 50–100 years or longer are pursued. This is because thermal and dynamical constraints imposed by local geography become increasingly important as the air-sea-land interaction and coupling timescales increase. Because the nature of the various proxy climate indicators are so different, the results cannot be combined into a simple hemispheric or global quantitative composite. However, considered as an ensemble of individual observations, an assemblage of the local representations of climate establishes the reality of both the Little Ice Age and the Medieval Warm Period as climatic anomalies with world-wide imprints, extending earlier results by Bryson et al. (1963), Lamb (1965), and numerous other research efforts. Furthermore, these individual proxies are used to determine whether the 20th century is the warmest century of the 2nd Millennium at a variety of globally dispersed locations. Many records reveal that the 20th century is likely not the warmest nor a uniquely extreme climatic period of the last millennium, although it is clear that human activity has significantly impacted some local environments. FULL TEXT https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1260/095830503765184619

Comments on “Evidence for global runoff increase related to climate warming” by Labat et al.” Advances in Water Resources 28.12 (2005): 1310-1315. We have examined the evidence presented by Labat et al. and found that (1) their claims for a 4% increase in global runoff arising from a 1 °C increase in air temperature and (2) that their article provides the “first experimental data-based evidence demonstrating the link between the global warming and the intensification of the global hydrological cycle” are not supported by the data presented. Our conclusions are based on the facts that (1) their discharge records exhibit non-climatic influences and trends, (2) their work cannot refute previous studies finding no relation between air temperature and runoff, (3) their conclusions cannot explain relations before 1925, and (4) the statistical significance of their results hinges on a single data point that exerts undue influence on the slope of the regression line. We argue that Labat et al. have not provided sufficient evidence to support their claim for having detected increases in global runoff resulting from climate warming.

Evaluating the use of “goodness‐of‐fit” measures in hydrologic and hydroclimatic model validation.” Water resources research 35.1 (1999): 233-241. Correlation and correlation‐based measures have been widely used to evaluate the “goodness‐of‐fit” of hydrologic and hydroclimatic models. These measures are oversensitive to extreme values (outliers) and are insensitive to additive and proportional differences between model predictions and observations. Because of these limitations, correlation‐based measures can indicate that a model is a good predictor, even when it is not. In this paper, useful alternative goodness‐of‐fit or relative error measures (including the coefficient of efficiency and the index of agreement) that overcome many of the limitations of correlation‐based measures are discussed. Modifications to these statistics to aid in interpretation are presented. It is concluded that correlation and correlation‐based measures should not be used to assess the goodness‐of‐fit of a hydrologic or hydroclimatic model and that additional evaluation measures (such as summary statistics and absolute error measures) should supplement model evaluation tools.

Mean seasonal and spatial variability in global surface air temperature.” Theoretical and applied climatology 41.1-2 (1990): 11-21. Using terrestrial observations of shelter-height air temperature and shipboard measurements, a global climatology of mean monthly surface air temperature has been compiled. Data were obtained from ten sources, screened for coding errors, and redundant station records were removed. The combined data base consists of 17 986 independent terrestrial station records and 6 955 oceanic grid-point records. These data were then interpolated to a 0.5° of latitude by 0.5° of longitude lattice using a spherically-based interpolation algorithm. Spatial distributions of the annual mean and intra-annual variance are presented along with a harmonic decomposition of the intra-annual variance.

The accuracy of United States precipitation data.” Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 75.2 (1994): 215-228. Precipitation measurements in the United States (as well as all other countries) are adversely affected by the gauge undercatch bias of point precipitation measurements. When these measurements are used to obtain areal averages, particularly in mountainous terrain, additional biases may be introduced because most stations are at lower elevations in exposed sites. Gauge measurements tend to be underestimates of the true precipitation, largely because of wind-induced turbulence at the gauge orifice and wetting losses on the internal walls of the gauge. These are not trivial as monthly estimates of this bias often vary from 5% to 40%. Biases are larger in winter than in summer and increase to the north in the United States due largely to the deleterious effect of the wind on snowfall. Simple spatial averaging of data from existing networks does not provide an accurate evaluation of the area-mean precipitation over mountainous terrain (e.g., over much of the western United States) since most stations are located at low elevations. This tends to underestimate area averages since, in mountainous terrain, precipitation generally increases with elevation. Temporal precipitation trends for the United States, as well as seasonal and annual averages, are presented. Estimates of unbiased (or less biased) precipitation over the northern Great Plains provide a regional analysis.



  • Anders Rasmusson: Chaamjamal, thank you, it’s my pleasure trying to present the circumstances in a way I would have done if still in operation as an chemical process
  • chaamjamal: Thank you for your detailed respinse.We see things differently I guess.
  • Anders Rasmusson: Chaamjamal : ”What about the climate science position that the airborne fraction is 50%? .... please see .....” Comments : Detrending, Monte