Thongchai Thailand

CLIMATE MIGRANTS

Posted on: July 28, 2020

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THE NYT TIMES DESCRIBES THE CREATION OF CLIMATE MIGRANTS

  1. CLAIM:  Early in 2019, a year before the world shut its borders completely, Jorge A. knew he had to get out of Guatemala. The land was turning against him. For five years, it almost never rained. Then it did rain, and rained and rained, and Jorge rushed his last seeds into the ground. The corn sprouted into healthy green stalks, and there was hope — until, without warning, the river flooded his fields. Jorge waded chest-deep into his fields searching in vain for cobs he could still eat. Soon he made a last desperate bet, signing away the tin-roof hut where he lived with his wife and three children against a $1,500 advance in okra seed. But after the flood, the rain stopped again, and everything died. Jorge knew then that if he didn’t get out of Guatemala, his family might die, too. So Jorge, along with hundreds of thousands of Guatemalans fled north for salvation in the United States. The odd weather phenomena that drove them to the USA, the drought and the El Niño have beend made more frequent by human caused global warming (AGW) that is turning semiarid parts of Guatemala into a desert.
  2. RESPONSE PART-1; ANTHROPOGENIC GLOBAL WARMING AND CLIMATE CHANGE (AGW)  is a theory about long term warming trends in global mean temperature. Therefore only those climate events that relate to long term trends in global mean temperature can be related to AGW in terms of causation and mitigation. This analysis may also apply to significant latitudinal sections of the globe but it cannot be understood in terms of localized or short term climate events that tend to be driven mostly by what has been termed “internal climate variability”. Details of the internal climate variability issue may be found in a related post [LINK] .
  3. RESPONSE PART-2; On the basis of the internal climate variability issue, it is not possible to understand the cycle of extreme rainfall and extreme dry weather over a period of a few years (less than 30 years) in a highly localized region described either as Guatemala or Central America, in terms of AGW. This means that AGW cannot be proposed as the cause of this short term climate variability and it cannot be proposed that such climate events can be mitigated by taking climate action in the form of reducing or eliminating the use of fossil fuels.
  4. RESPONSE PART-3; In summary, the short term localized climate events that forced these people to migrate do not imply that the migration was caused by AGW or that such events can be mitigated by taking climate action. Therefore, these migrants cannot be described as climate change migrants or as climate change refugees, however tragic their situation may have been.

We Won't Solve Immigration If We Don't Solve Climate Change | Fortune

Guatemalan Climate Change Refugees Pouring Over U.S. Border – And ...

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