Thongchai Thailand

PM2.5: IT’S ALL IN THE NUMBERS

Posted on: April 10, 2020

bandicam 2020-04-10 09-09-41-283

BANGKOK-PM2.5

PM2.5 MORTALITY CHARTS

 

[LINK TO THE HOME PAGE OF THIS SITE]

 

PRIMARY SOURCE DOCUMENTS

EPA-PM2.5 2010 [LINK] , EMAC MODEL EXAMPLES [LINK]  

THIS POST IS A PRESENTATION OF THE EPA STANDARDS AND METHODS FOR RISK FACTORS AND MORTALITY ESTIMATES OF PM2.5 POLLUTION LEVELS

 

HOW TO COMPUTE THE PM2.5 KILL RATE FOR YOUR CITY

  1. STEP-1: IN THE EPA (OR SIMILAR AGENCY IN YOUR COUNTRY) PUBLICATIONS FIND THE AVERAGE PM2.5 LEVEL FOR THE PREVIOUS YEAR FOR YOUR CITY. 
  2. STEP-2: IN YOUR CITY’S HEALTH DEPARTMENT PUBLICATIONS, FIND THE NUMBER OF PEOPLE OLDER THAN AGE 70 WHO DIED LAST YEAR WITH THE CAUSE OF DEATH LISTED ON THE DEATH CERTIFICATE AS ONE OF THESE FIVE DISEASES: STROKE, HEART DISEASE, LUNG CANCER, RESPIRATORY INFECTION, OR CHRONIC OBSTRUCTIVE PULMONARY DISEASE (COPD).
  3. STEP-3:  NOW GO TO THE EPA MORTALITY TABLES OR CHARTS AND FOR EACH OF THESE FIVE DISEASES, LOOK UP THE PERCENT OF DEATHS ATTRIBUTABLE TO PM2.5 AT THE PM2.5 LEVELS YOU FOUND IN STEP-1.
  4. STEP 4:  MULTIPLY THE “NUMBER OF PEOPLE” IN STEP 2 FOR EACH OF THE FIVE DISEASES WITH THE CORRESPONDING “PERCENT OF DEATHS” IN STEP 3. NOW YOU HAVE FIVE NUMBERS AS THE RESULTS OF THESE MULTIPLICATIONS.
  5. STEP 5:  ADD UP THE FIVE NUMBERS FROM STEP 4. VOILA! THIS IS THE NUMBER OF PEOPLE WHO  WERE KILLED BY PM2.5 LAST YEAR. THE RESULTS SHOULD STACK UP SOMETHING LIKE THIS.

DEATHS

 

THE POINT OF THIS POST IS THAT NOBODY REALLY DIES FROM PM2.5 AND THERE IS NO DEATH CERTIFICATE THAT LISTS PM2.5 AS THE CAUSE OF DEATH. BUT IT IS BELIEVED THAT PM2.5 IS A CONTRIBUTING FACTOR IF THE DEAD PERSON WAS OLD AND IF HE HAD ONE OF THE FIVE LISTED CONDITIONS. THEREFORE, THE PM2.5 MORTALITY FIGURE YOU SEE IN THE NEWS IS JUST A NUMBER THAT WE COMPUTE. IT DOESN’T REALLY MEAN WHAT IT PRETENDS TO MEAN.

WE CAN COMPUTE HOW MANY WERE KILLED BY PM2.5 BUT WE CAN’T TELL YOU WHO THEY WERE.

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  • chaamjamal: Thank you Paul. This is a 50-year study at a decadal time scale. The effective sample size is about 5. There can't be a lot of statistical power in th
  • chaamjamal: Autocorrelation refers to correlations among different time spans of the same time series.
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