Thongchai Thailand

AGW MELTING ARCTIC GLACIERS

Posted on: February 7, 2020

 

[LINK TO THE HOME PAGE OF THIS SITE]

 

 

THIS POST IS A CRITICAL EVALUATION OF AN IRISH PUBLIC BROADCAST SERVICE VIDEO ABOUT THE IMPACT OF AGW ON THE ARCTIC [LINK] . IT IS PRESENTED IN TWO PARTS. PART-1 IS A TRANSCRIPT OF THE YOUTUBE VIDEO LECTURE. PART-2 IS A CRITICAL EVALUATION OF THE CLAIMS MADE IN THE LECTURE. 

 

 

PART-1: TRANSCRIPT OF THE YOUTUBE VIDEO  LECTURE

  1. The Arctic is warming twice as fast as the rest of the world. So Greenland is on the front line when it comes to observing climate change. Thirteen years ago we traveled here to Disko Bay, home to the tallest icebergs in the world. Now we have returned to find out what’s happened to this incredible landscape. The first impression is still one of wonder. This UNESCO World Heritage site is home to the Yakob Sound Glacier. As it melts, it releases more fresh water into the sea, more than any glacier in the Northern Hemisphere. bandicam 2020-02-07 08-30-44-545
  2. The first thing we noticed is how the town of Ilulissat, Greenland has experienced a tourist boom. The attraction is clear but the underlying reason was unnerving. The tourists are here to see the ice before it all melts away. Back in 2006 it was already clear that dramatic change had happened within people’s lifetimes. Native speaks: “Old people always talks about when they were kids, the ice was much bigger and more dangerous, dangerous in this way that they are ready to break off or break in two. But now they are smaller and more smooth on the surface”.bandicam 2020-02-07 08-53-26-619
  3. Back then most of the icebergs were pristine, but in 2019 a startling change as the glacier retreated further inland. Iceberg after iceberg was now covered in dirt. All around Disko Bay we saw icebergs studded in grit, stones, and sand. Native: “We see more dirty icebergs because they are touching the ?clumbear? in the mountains. That’s why we see a lot of dirty icebergs”. bandicam 2020-02-07 09-18-02-417
  4. We know that where the system is chaotic rather than linear and glacial retreat isn’t straightforward either. Sometimes Yakob Sound retreats rapidly by as much as 17 km in a single year. And sometimes it stalls for a decade or more; but the trajectory over the century and a half is clear. In the past 3 years Yakob Sound has not just stalled but even gained some mass. bandicam 2020-02-07 09-26-23-094
  5. However, scientists can explain this and it is not good news. Scientists explain the science of  anomalous Yakob Sound melt/gain events: Scientist#1: “Ten years ago the glacier was influenced a lot more by the warming water in the fjord than it is today. And now the water is not interacting with the glacier as much as it was before and that’s why it can build up more ice“. Scientist#2: The rate of melting of these icebergs and the glacier will vary. However, the overall trend is absolutely clear. So too are the consequences. bandicam 2020-02-07 09-35-48-039
  6. We know that Yakob Sound is already contributing to the rise of sea levels. We know that climate change is triggering more frequent storm surges. Increased flooding is inevitable. What begins here in an isolated Arctic wilderness, a place that seems like a world away, is closer to home than we think. bandicam 2020-02-07 10-48-35-247

 

 

 

PART-2: CRITICAL COMMENTARY ON THE  LECTURE

  1. CLAIM: The Arctic is warming twice as fast as the rest of the world. So Greenland is on the front line when it comes to observing climate change. RESPONSE: When dramatic glacial melt events occur and when September minimum sea ice appears to be ready for that coveted ice free Arctic condition, the Arctic is on the front line when it comes observing climate change. When there is more than one Indian Ocean cyclone in any given year ravaging poor African countries, then the Indian Ocean is on the front line when it comes to observing climate change. When there are particularly destructive wildfires in California with loss of life and property, then California is on the front line when it comes to observing climate change. When there are particularly dramatic bushfires in Australia then Australia is on the front line when it comes to observing climate change. When there is a particularly strong Hurricane in the USA or the Caribbean, then the North Atlantic tropical cyclone basin is on the front line when it comes to observing climate change. When there is a dramatic ice melt event in Antarctica then Antarctica is on the front line when it comes to observing climate change even if it turns out that the ice melt event was triggered by volcanic activity under the ice. All such attributions and their use in pushing for climate action are attributions of convenience driven by confirmation bias and the activism needs of the climate action agenda against fossil fuels.   
  2. CLAIM: As the Yakob Sound Glacier melts, it releases more fresh water into the sea, more than any glacier in the Northern Hemisphere. RESPONSE: So what? When glaciers melt they release freshwater into the sea, some glaciers more than others and these things tend to happen in interglacials particularly so during warming cycles of interglacials that are known to undergo warming and cooling cycles at millennial and centennial time scales [LINK]
  3. CLAIM: the town of Ilulissat, Greenland has experienced a tourist boom. The attraction is clear but the underlying reason was unnerving. The tourists are here to see the ice before it all melts away.  RESPONSE: Tourism to Ilulissat is promoted in this way. The tourists are there not because their scientific investigation of the melt data convinced them that they better see the ice before it’s all gone. They are there because that is how the tourism business in Ilulissat is advertised – come and see the ice before it is all gone. That a tourism business is promoted in this way is neither science nor any kind of empirical evidence that the ice in Ilulissat will soon be completely gone and that this is your last chance to see it. It’s business.
  4. CLAIM: Back in 2006 it was already clear that dramatic change had happened within people’s lifetimes. Native speaks: “Old people always talks about when they were kids, the ice was much bigger and more dangerous, dangerous in this way that they are ready to break off or break in two. But now they are smaller and more smooth on the surface”.  RESPONSE: It is true that there was a singular and dramatic melt event in 2006  when it seemed that Greenland was melting at a rate of 20 cubic kilometers per month. However, forecasts based on that isolated and singular event turned out to be wrong. In any case, if when the old people were kids they saw that the ice was dangerous and ready to break off, why is it so surprising to their children that the ice did break off?
  5. CLAIM: Back when the old timers were kids, most of the icebergs were pristine, but in 2019 there was a startling change as the glacier retreated further inland. Iceberg after iceberg was now covered in dirt. All around Disko Bay we saw icebergs studded in grit, stones, and sand. Native: “We see more dirty icebergs because they are touching the ?clumbear? in the mountains. That’s why we see a lot of dirty icebergs”. RESPONSE: Yes, this is what happens when glaciers retreat and what had happened when the glacier had retreated in prior melt events but it seems unlikely that rational people would give up fossil fuels in a climate action plan just to clean up the dirty icebergs especially since these are historical events in a glacier that has been advancing in recent years.
  6. CLAIM: We know that where the system is chaotic rather than linear and glacial retreat isn’t straightforward. Sometimes Yakob Sound retreats rapidly by as much as 17 km in a single year. And sometimes it stalls for a decade or more; but the trajectory over the century and a half is clear. In the past 3 years Yakob Sound has not just stalled but even gained some mass. RESPONSE:  If the system is chaotic the trajectory can’t be clear. If we hunt and choose we can surely find periods of recession just as we can find periods of advance – as for example in recent years –  but a rational and unbiased evaluation free from confirmation bias would not find a “clear trajectory” of a receding Yakob Sound glacier caused by fossil fuel driven AGW climate change.
  7. CLAIM: Scientists can explain why the proposed AGW driven melt of the Yakob Sound glacier is so complicated with periods when it recedes, periods when it advances and periods when it does neither. Scientist#1: “Ten years ago the glacier was influenced a lot more by the warming water in the fjord than it is today. And now the water is not interacting with the glacier as much as it was before and that’s why it can build up more ice“. RESPONSE: The data used to construct a theory can’t be used to test that theory. This kind of thing is called “circular reasoning” and down in Texas it’s called the “Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy” – that is shoot first and draw the target circle later around the holes where your bullets had hit. texas-1
  8. CLAIM: Scientists can explain why the proposed AGW driven melt of the Yakob Sound glacier is so complicated with periods when it recedes, periods when it advances and periods when it does neither. Scientist#2: The rate of melting of these icebergs and the glacier will vary. However, the overall trend is absolutely clear. So too are the consequences. RESPONSE:  It’s not just that the rate of melt varies but what we also see are alternating periods of melt and gain and it is not clear how that process is driven by AGW climate change and its steady long term upward trend in surface air temperature. There are probably other variables to be considered that have not been presented in this video. In related posts it is shown that the Arctic is geologically active and it may be necessary to include known ocean floor geological activity to gain a better understanding of ice melt phenomena in the Arctic region. [LINK] [LINK] [LINK] .
  9. CLAIM: We know that Yakob Sound is already contributing to the rise of sea levels. We know that climate change is triggering more frequent storm surges. Increased flooding is inevitable. What begins here in an isolated Arctic wilderness, a place that seems like a world away, is closer to home than we think. RESPONSE: Maybe it is inevitable but the repeated and comical failure of forecasts of such events and their dire consequences does not imply that the science of sea level rise is well understood by climate science [LINK] . Of late the sea level rise horror has been re-invented in terms of larger uncertainties in the elevation of “low lying areas”. At current sea level rise forecasts, it was projected that 110 million people will be affected by coastal high tide flooding events by the year 2100 but new improved DEM data for coastal land elevation shows that they are not as high as we had thought and so the number of people affected by high tide flood events at the same rate of sea level rise will be higher, maybe 190 million or somewhere between 140 and 240 million. A problem with that assessment is that the large uncertainty in coastal land elevation data may mean that we don’t really know what the coastal land elevation is exactly. [LINK]

 

4 Responses to "AGW MELTING ARCTIC GLACIERS"

Here is an answer to the question why the arctic is warming faster then the “rest of the globe”:
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-019-0677-4
This answer comes from climate scientists!
They had forgotten to observe the ODS (ozone depleting substances) because they believed they would fast go to zero. But the ODS are not reduced, they are growing and they contribute massive to the global warming: half of the warming of the Arctic area and one third of the entire global warming is “made” by the ODS. Logically this says that the CO2 plays a minor role than believed by the scientists!

Thank you for that insight, sir and for that link.

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