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THIS POST PRESENTS  A LECTURE BY PROFESSOR PAUL EHRLICH ON THE TOPIC

AVOIDING A COLLAPSE OF CIVILIZATION: OUR CHANCES, PROSPECTS, AND PATHWAYS FORWARD

THE LECTURE WAS GIVEN AT THE UNIVERSITY OF ADELAIDE ENVIRONMENT INSTITUTE IN JULY 2013 AND IS AVAILABLE FOR VIEWING ON YOUTUBE [LINK] . IT IS PRESENTED IN TWO PARTS. PART-1 IS A TRANSCRIPT OF THE LECTURE. A CRITICAL COMMENTARY ON THE LECTURE IS PRESENTED IN PART-2

 

 

PART-1: TRANSCRIPT OF THE LECTURE 

(1)  I am delighted to be back in Australia because we came particularly this time to at least sample the tail end of what I have been calling the Murdoch summer because uh as the IPCC notes and so on he has probably done more than any other human being to wreck the climate and also to encourage population growth through the false news network, uh, a thing called “The Australian” which actually we actually read back in 1965 before it went bad uh look The Wall Street Journal that has the funniest editorial pages in the world, so we all ought to take off our hats uh to somebody who had managed to destroy as much of the world as Rupert Murdoch uh what else can I say ….

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(2)  An issue I want to discuss is “What’s happened to science?”   We are now clearly in the beginning of the endarkenment (as opposed to enlightenment). You go to the United States – the United States is turning into a combination of plutocracy and theocracy. We are no longer in a, uh uh, we are in a faith based society. Amazingly enough, some people in our Congress are quite willing to have their brains operated on by scientists but they won’t listen to the scientists on anything else. They fly on airplanes designed by scientists  – sure that they are not gonna crash – and yet, again, they never listen to the scientific community. This is also partly true here in Australia where in my view, on a per capita basis, you have the best group of environmental scientists in the world, and the best group of ecologists in the world, but too many of them work for state governments that censor them. So the Australians pay a lot of money to get a lot of scientific research done and then of course they block that information from getting to the public. A disgusting situation.

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(3)  Stanford, and I suspect ANU too, are, uh, raise even more interesting questions. Why is it that when we are facing the west, uh the science, the British science adviser Sir John Beddington said was a perfect storm of environmental problems, why if you look at the questions, what are the odds basically of avoiding a collapse is a lot of debate about that. Actually Cory and I and the Graham Turner had a debate about that in Adelaide ten days ago  – and uh this is serious scientific debate. Uh I my own estimate and the estimate is that we have maybe a 10% chance of avoiding total collapse; but we’re willing to work to make it  an 11% chance uh because we’ve got great grandchildren uh Cory is not as optimistic as that uh Jim Brown uh energy expert and the world’s best geographer who is uh a member of the National Academy among other things, says we’re crazy, it’s a really big debate. He says the chance is only 1% uh but he’s willing to work to make it 1.1%.

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(4)  Uh Graham Turner chimed in “Well! actually, I think it could be as high as 25% but don’t count on it, I think you ought to live it up right now. That’s the only significant debate I know of in the scientific community about what’s happening environmentally and what the chances are. In other words, some people will think there’s a big debate about whether human beings are changing the climate. In the scientific community there is NO debate. Not the slightest of hint of anybody who has even the most elementary scientist uh science knew 60 years ago that if you added crap to the atmosphere you will change the climate. But 60 years ago there was some question about whether it would be towards cooling or warming but of course where the most serious effects come that is the effects on agriculture doesn’t matter much. Change in any direction from a period of roughly 10,000 years of unusual stability in the climate you’re going to screw up agriculture, there’s no, not any rocket science, uh, in that.

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(5)  So one of the questions is uh why the Stanford University, and I suspect ANU graduate many many people who don’t have a clue about agriculture. Why are universities at the front line of telling people what’s happening to the world and actually taking leadership to show what’s happening. Universities are disgraceful in this world. What do American universities seek? Money! All they wanna do is whatever gives them uh Stanford was once described by one of my colleagues as a full service whore house and that was a pretty accurate description. Uh but is it that different in Australia? Uh how many, oh, you, at some places I’m even told that you sort of get paid off for papers and so, on, but the basic point is there is no real leadership coming from the academic community, and that’s a major disgrace.

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(6)  Now let me briefly uh I only have two and a half hours according to our host here, uh let me just go briefly uh through some of the things uh this is obviously a self selected and knowledgeable audience. What sorts of things are not being discussed in the press besides, besides almost everything is significant, I mean we we we had, we had a presidential election in the United States in which not one single important issue was discussed., ever, or debated. What are they uh what do they talk about? Can gays get married. Well, I told this to many many audiences, I’m totally in favor of gay marriage. Why in hell should us straights be the only ones who suffer? I mean … sorry Ann, but my brain is sitting back there uh and I gotta be really careful uh, hey! Cory! Uh they uh uh debated all of this financial crap uh the uh terrible debt ceiling, the terrible fiscal cliff, the terrible this or that. When they discuss debt they never mention that for every nickel of debt somebody has a nickel of credit, that in fact the whole financial mess could easily be solved by human beings negotiating with each other, it would lead to some uh uh from some people’s point of view, a pretty nasty situation because some of the absolutely filthy rich people on Wall Street might lose some of the money they’ve been stealing from us all these years. Uh but uh It’s easily solvable.

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(7)  You can’t negotiate with nature. All the climate scientists I know think is a very high prob …. I know the best … a very high probability we’re going to bust through 2C in warming and continue up even to 5C even the World Bank is worried about 4C or 5C uh and that’s not necessarily the top … when you look at what is happening in other words you’ve got all this talk about climate change … you don’t hear people pointing out that we’re putting more greenhouse gases into the atmosphere every year than before, in other words if people talk about the effort – well we’re building more windmills and so on, yeah! what you have to do is figure out what are the results – what’s happening, I’m, I’m reminded many years ago when Ann and I were in India discussing uh family planning programs and an Indian government official said to us, “you know you gotta give us credit, last year we shipped a million condoms into the field and I said, well, if they weren’t used for flashlight covers, that may have covered the first hour or two of January first’s night, uh but the answer … you can’t judge it by effort you gotta judge it by results. What’s happening to the total fertility rate? OK, so what sorts of things are not being covered uh in the media in this uh uh in this situation. First thing is that they don’t cover agriculture, uh, and the second thing by the way, is that most universities, certainly Stanford University, don’t cover agriculture either. You gotta really seek out the courses to know anything at all about agriculture – humanity’s single most important activity – our biggest business. And if you stop a hundred Stanford professors on campus, professors not students, and ask them where their food comes from the best they can do is “the supermarket”. They don’t know that for example green uh uh uh the the uh the agricultural system in the United States and Australia, heavily dependent on fossil fuels, uh, depending on how you do the numbers, something like 25% to 35% of greenhouse gasses come from agriculture itself.

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(8)  The biggest and most important impact uh of climate change climate disruption is not going to be sea level rise, we’ve got to worry about that, that’s the problem right there I told you. Uh and uh uh it’s going to be its impact on agriculture and particularly changing precipitation patterns. Virtually none of them realize that we’re faced uh if we’re going to eat in the future, we’re faced with totally revising the energy mobilizing infrastructure on the planet and simultaneously totally uh revising the uh the uh water handling infrastructure and building it for flexibility because precipitation patterns we now know are going to change for the next thousand years at least. It’s not going to go from A to B so we can plan how we’re going to move from A to B. It’s gonna go A to B to C to D and uh essentially in perpetuity and uh we’re in deep trouble in agriculture already for lots and lots of reasons. Uh if you read the uh the idiot literature on how we’re gonna solve the agriculture problem, what do you see? Well, we gotta wait less. You can go back and read in 1960s we gotta wait less. Haven’t done anything about it. Then we gotta have uh better storage facilities. Ditto.

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(9)  Then we’ve got to improve our crops and bring the yields up to close the so called yield gap. That’s because if you grow corn in Iowa you can get a certain yield and uh and a very high yield, and if you then grow it in Southern Mexico you can’t get that you don’t get such a high yield. So the idea is to bring the Mexican yield up as the yield everywhere up to developed country standards uh of production. Problem uh a couple problems with that. First of all, all of the literature shows that the major grains, and by the way, don’t fool around with the stuff at the edges. The human feeding base is three grains. And if those three grains are not kept growing, we’re screwed. Put in technical terms, well, in fact, the rate of growth is changing in all of them and it’s going down.I mean the growth it was it was gradually increasing and now the rate of increase is going down and they full expect it to peal off and go the other direction. The yield – the yield gap is going to get smaller at least in part because the yields are not going to be uh the top yields are not going to be as high as they were before. Second thing is uh uh that uh as you warm the planet, it becomes tougher and tougher to keep the yields up not just because you’re approaching the limits of the grains being able to produce but also you are wrecking uh the uh the natural pest control services that normally keep Iowa way down because as one of the main reasons you don’t get as good a yield in the tropics is – guess what? – in the tropics the pests manage to reproduce all year long and so you’ll have a constant problem of pest reproduction. you’re warming up in uh uh in Iowa and the same thing will happen. Iowa is so great because it has a great thing called winter. You get rid of the winter, the pest control problems which are already extremely serious, get much worse.

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(10)  As some of you may have heard if you read the literature, we’re expected to have 2.5 billion more people by 2050. That’s a lot more people. When Ann and I were born there were only 2 billion people on the entire planet. We’re gonna add 2.5 billion people bu 2050 who are going to have to be fed by a staggering agricultural system in which we already fail to feed almost a billion people enough calories and another roughly two billion people are micro nutrient malnourished, so, some of them go blind, many of them can’t function at at a reasonable level and uh but there’s gonna be no problem at all adding another 2.5 billion people despite the gigantic non-linearity that are involved that are involved, the disproportionate effects. Why do we have nonlinearities there? Well a major reason is of course, people are smart. Guess what? When we developed agriculture, people didn’t run around trying to find the most marginal land they could grow crops on, grow crops on the marginal land, and then gradually, as civilization developed, more more and more towards the river bottoms and the rich soil. No, we settled down on the river bottom where we developed farms on the very best soil, we drank the clean water coming down the river, we crapped into the river because there weren’t enough of us so you didn’t have a sewage disposal problem, uh uh and guess what? Now every person, first of all, if any of you been to places like New Delhi or Manila you know we’re building our cities over our very best soil uh and so the people we’re going to have to feed in the future, each one of them on average, is going to have to be fed from more marginal land requiring more inputs, requiring more use of energy, and guess what that tends to feedback on uh and not only that they’re going to go water is going to have to be transported farther ?grilled beef before hump further?  more energy uh what are they gonna do for things like metal? Well, you know when we started back with the agricultural revolution we had copper lying around the surface at around a 100% uh now we’re mining ores at half a percent  (blogger’s note: percent copper in copper ores varies from less than half a percent to more than 12%).

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(11)  If any of you are familiar with the literature on collapse, particularly Joe Tainter’s book from what, about 1990. Collapse of Complex Civilization (The Collapse of Complex Societies, Joe Tainter, 1988 [LINK] ), he pointed out even then, uh that the biggest sign of approaching collapse is diminishing marginal returns. What does that mean? It’s not all that technical, it means, when we had our first oil well in Pennsylvania they started on the surface and went 59 feet and struck oil. The one that blew out in the Gulf uh uh the Deepwater Horizon, didn’t start at the surface of the ground. It started under a mile of water at the surface of the seafloor and had to go down two more miles before it hit oil. And in fact there was a paper in Science Magazine last week or the week before reiterating what a lot of us have been saying for a long long time of course and that is we are forced to use more scattered, less pure, more difficult to acquire, more difficult to refine, more dangerous to get resources, and the paper in Science pointed out that even if we had a sustainable size population and a constant level of consumption, thee system would still be continuously running downhill – just hopefully at a much slower rate. So these things are never considered in the press. They are not considered in most courses. What I am telling you now uh would be total news to 95 to 80 uh 98% of Stanford students when they get their PhD, not when they get their bachelors degrees. Universities are utter failures at trying to prepare people for the real world uh and uh almost nothing is being done about it – uh very sad, uh so, but what the hell, it’s partly my failure and the failure of the rest of you who are faculty members to not try and get this changed uh but I uh I’m sympathetic with those of you who’ve not tried because I’ve tried and it hasn’t worked, so I put a lot of energy uh into failure.

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(12)  Uh and I think one of the other problems is, is that most people don’t have any access now to what’s going on in the world. In other words, the media are a total disaster. The social media are uh can be very helpful. The trouble is that for every decent site there is that you can trust in the social media, uh, there are 4 or 5 that’re just solid bullshit, maybe ten. Uh for instance I once googled Uh Uh “missing links”and the first 30 sites that came up were very cleverly expensively done creationist sites. Uh I, I, I tweet myself and some of the stuff that goes through the tweets is absolutely amazing. Sometimes it’s uh very interesting information – uh depends on what who’s you’re you’re tweeting with uh but for instance stuff that just came over uh my desk in the last day or so, one was the paper in Science Magazine I was talking about. Uh a colleague sent me a preposterous thing by a guy named Hans Ross uh Rosling, he’s a statistician who’s totally ignorant of everything that’s statistics and tells us that everything is going to be find because as soon as we make 10 billion people as rich as we are, they’ll have smaller families. Now mind you, if you, if you go to for instance the ecological footprint site, which was a good one on hahahaha you find out that to support permanently, sustainably, today’s population with today’s level of misery, that is with half the population virtually living on under two bucks a day, with all those people hungry or starving, with all the other threats we’re facing, would require, to do it permanently, uh essentially permanently, would be another half an earth. To bring everybody up to the Australian standard, uh and the uh it, in the long run, uh would require 3 or 4 more earths. They’re hard to find these days.

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(13)  Uh but again, the flow of crap is denser by uh actually one of my colleagues, a sociologist made, he did an estimate, it’s about 30 times denser than the flow of uh uh real information from the scientific community uh and that’s because of the funding, that’s because of Mr Murdoch and his buddies and the rest uh by the way the the distribution of income in the US, you can be proud in Australia that you still have a semi reasonable distribution of income, it’s not really reasonable but compared to the US, uh our distribution of income is like an empire of old uh and it’s getting more so all the time and the uh unfortunately the filthy rich are so stupid that they never even uh learned the basic lessons from Henry uh Ford, who’s not a hero of mine by any means, but Ford priced his cars and paid his workers enough so they could buy the cars. Now the people are getting rich is mostly just through financial manipulation. The uh uh my uh my idea for Wall Street is very simple and that is that every body on Wall Street should be fired or imprisoned. Many imprisoned. Right. They are parasites, they create nothing of any use, most of their main job is to find ways to trick people out of their money and make the rich richer. If they did their job right, what would happen? They allocate capital and so on so that you get more economic growth. Economic growth is the disease, it’s not the cure! If they did their jobs right we’d still want to fire ’em, get ’em the hell out of the way because they are incapable of understanding that you cannot have continued exponential growth on a finite planet as as Kenneth Holding, a very distinguished economist said many years ago, “if you think you can have perpetual growth, you’re either an imbecile or an economist and I, I think that holds today very well.

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Conclusion We have to as rapidly as possible reduce the scale of the human enterprise, not just, not just uh try and bring the poor up which we certainly must do, we let them let everybody on the planet have a decent life. The {?batam flies?} re-distribution and people don’t like the idea of re-distribution and of course one of the things about reducing the scale of the human enterprise is to lower the birthrate further, considerably further. How do we do that? We do something that has been done in no nation in the world yet and that is to give women absolutely equal rights and opportunities to men and at the same time give everybody who is sexually active access to modern contraception, and where necessary, back up abortion. If you do those things the odds are you will get population declining gradually in lots of places. The estimate of what might be sustainable over a medium term at least runs generally in the vicinity of a billion to two billion people depending on how much risk … how risk averse you are. Bur of course we’re now at 7.1, we’re aiming for 10 or eleven and uh so the issue of exactly where you stop as you downsize the human enterprise to make it sustainable uh uh can be debated for a hundred years. It’s not going to happen overnight. Just telling people what the science says does not change their behavior. 

 

 

PART-2: CRITICAL COMMENTARY 

  1. The lecture by Paul Ehrlich is an expression of a popular obsession with a coming collapse of our civilization. This theme is evident in Ehrlich’s prior works exemplified by his bestseller The Population Bomb and supported in this lecture by a citation of the 1988 book on “Collapse of Complex Societies” by Joe Tainter [LINK] . The Tainter book is cited as support for the claim that “the biggest sign of approaching collapse is diminishing marginal returns“. The current fear of climate change, expressed as climate crisis and climate emergency, is presented here in terms of the collapse of civilization paradigm. 
  2. Yet, The Population Bomb has been thoroughly discredited and is widely considered to have been a failed assessment of the future of humanity and life on earth [SMITHSONIAN 2018] [REED 2008] in terms of its methodology, its implicit assumptions, and in the context of what turned out to be a spectacular collection of failed predictions. Some of the failed predictions are listed below. The essential thesis is that population growth and economic growth, what Ehrlich calls “The Human Enterprise“,  can’t just continue forever without limits and therefore there has to be limits and therefore reaching and crossing these limits will cause a catastrophic Biblical collapse of The Human Enterprise. The prior expression of this limit in the Population Bomb is deftly extended in this lecture to climate change by simply inserting human activities, such as fossil fuel emissions, into The Human Enterprise.
  3. The case for limits to population growth and economic growth is presented in terms of the low fruit analogy. This analogy states that, in terms of agricultural land, minerals, and energy resources, the global economy grows initially on “low fruit” that is readily accessible, high quality, and plentiful supply of resources such as fertile agricultural land, fossil fuels, and metals, of very high quality and purity, found close to the surface. The low fruit argument is that as the low fruit is used up and the fruit gets higher and higher due to resource depletion and environmental degradation caused by human activity and its exploitation of nature, growth of “the human enterprise” becomes constrained by declining availability and quality of resources particularly so when it is combined with increasing human population. At some point, it is argued, when the fruit too high and the humans are too many, growth ceases . In this condition, continued growth is not possible. It is on this basis that this condition is presented as the proximate cause of “the coming collapse”.
  4. However, the low fruit argument of the coming collapse theory contains a fatal logical flaw. As humans consume and human population grows over time, humans also change, not only biologically in terms of evolution, but also in terms of progress in science and technology. For example, it would probably not be possible for the Neanderthal cave dwellers of 100,000 years ago to participate in the home building and agriculture of the Neolithic Revolution or for the geniuses of the Neolithic revolution to drill for oil in the ocean.
  5. The reason the low fruit argument is flawed, is that it is not the Neanderthals that are drilling for oil in the ocean and manufacturing aircraft and exploring space; but their evolutionary survivors that have vastly increased their capacity to find and make use of resources. As our population changes, so do we. The consumption of low fruit increases our ability to reach higher fruit as the low fruit is used up. This dynamic is missing in the Ehrlich logic.
  6. In the climate change era, the lecture on the limits to population and economic growth is extended to include the environmental degradation of “the planet” in terms of climate change. The impact of climate change on the Ehrlich/Tainter limits to growth hypothesis is described as “a perfect storm of environmental problems” because you can’t negotiate with nature. All the climate scientists I know think there is a very high probability we’re going to bust through 2C in warming and continue up even to 5C and even the World Bank is worried about 4C or 5C “.
  7. He defends his extreme evaluation of climate change, more extreme than the IPCC,  with the observation that “we’re putting more greenhouse gases into the atmosphere every year, more than before, in other words if people talk about the effort – well we’re building more windmills and so on, yeah! what you have to do is figure out what are the results – what’s happening“. Here we see the Ehrlich genius for linguistic extravagance in the absence of information. The growth in annual fossil fuel emissions since pre-industrial is well known and it is in the equation that determines temperature forecasts for the business as usual scenario. Also, his claim that the investment in wind power made around the world, at the insistence of climate scientists and the IPCC, has had no effect on the rate of warming is a common argument against the renewable energy seen in climate denier websites.
  8. Agriculture: Curiously, agriculture plays a key and critical role and in the Paul Ehrlich science of the collapse of civilization by way of population and economic growth. He describes the role of agriculture in the context of climate change when he claims that “The biggest and most important impact of climate-change-climate-disruption is not going to be sea level rise. It’s going to be the impact on agriculture.  Specifically, the issue seems to be changing precipitation patterns. expected to be an impact of climate-change-climate-disruption.  He says that “if we’re going to eat in the future”, we have to overhaul “the energy infrastructure of the planet“. He says that we also have to overhaul and reinvent the water handling infrastructure so that we can adapt to changing precipitation patterns “for the next thousand years at least“. Here the man who says the end is near also advises us to plan ahead when building our water infrastructure for a thousand years.
  9. You can’t negotiate with nature:  With respect to the debate between climate science and the deniers, Ehrlich says “Some people will think there’s a big debate about whether human beings are changing the climate. In the scientific community there is NO debate. Not the slightest of hint of anybody who has even the most elementary science.  It has been known for 60 years (since the 1950s) that if you add crap to the atmosphere you will change the climate. But 60 years ago (1950s) there was some question about whether the crap would cause cooling or warming. But of course where the most serious effects come that is the effects on agriculture doesn’t matter much. Change in any direction from a period of roughly 10,000 years of unusual stability in the climate you’re going to screw up agriculture. That’s not rocket science.You can’t negotiate with nature.”  The reference to crap changing the climate either that could be either warming or cooling is a likely reference to the work of the late Stephen Schneider who had written in the depths of the 1970s cooling period that fossil fuel emissions of the industrial economy contains not only CO2 that causes warming but also aerosols and when the aerosols get into the stratosphere they cause cooling by reflecting incident radiation. He also noted that the progression of of CO2 warming was logarithmic – that is the more CO2 there is in the atmosphere, the less the impact of adding more CO2. In contrast, the progression of aerosol cooling is exponential. That means that the more aerosol you have the greater the impact of additional aerosols. He had written then that this is why there has to come a time in AGW when the warming will revert to cooling. This paper (Rasool&Schneider 1972) was the definitive paper at that time that had explained the 1970s cooling anomaly although shortly thereafter the cooling changed to warming. (Schneider blamed that on the acid rain program that cleaned up aerosol and CO2 emissions of power plants.) In terms of these details, the Ehrlich interpretation in 2014, when the direction of climate change had already established itself as warming, as “crap” causing climate change in either direction and that therefore the rational response is to take adaptive action against agriculture disruption, seems strangely out of sync and out of touch with the climate science literature since the 1950s. Also his assessment that the climate history of the Holocene as “a period of roughly 10,000 years of unusual stability in the climate” is grossly at odds with the literature and with the paleo data for Holocene presented in a related post [LINK] . The relevant bibliography presentd in that post shows that the 10,000 years of Holocene history has a turbulent and chaotic temperature profile consisting of violent alternating cycles of warming and cooling and millennial and centennial time scales. 
  10. Also with respect to climate change he says that there is no debate about the science of AGW climate change among scientists but there is some debate about the probability that it will cause a collapse of civilization. He lists probabilities of 1%, 10%, and 25% from this debate among scientists. The wide range of these estimates actually implies that the scientists don’t really know what the answer is. And although these probabilities are supposed to scare us such that we should “live i up” and prepare to die they are actually too low for that interpretation.
  11. The Ad hominem Fallacy: As is common in climate science arguments in support of a climate crisis or climate emergency that makes climate action mandatory, here Ehrlich too digs deep into this fallacy to support his climate crisis views as well as his collapse of civilization views by repeated use of the phrase “the science says” as well as the odd parallels drawn by citing brain surgery and flying in airliners where he implies that to trust these technologies that are the creation of scientists and then to question the climate crisis and ecological crisis and collapse of civilization as forecast by scientists is a contradiction. The need to reach this low in bad logic does not speak well for “the science” that he is trying to support.
  12. In summary, the attempt by Ehrlich to put the population bomb and the climate bomb together into a greater scare of an anticipated collapse than previously thought is undone by the weakness of his arguments and the absence of a continuity in the lecture except that climate change has been connected to agriculture disruption by way of changing precipitation patterns“.
  13. FOOTNOTE: As a footnote, the Paul Ehrlich scenario for collapse of civilization both in his population & economic growth analysis and now in his climate change analysis bears a close resemblance to what had happened in the Late Bronze Age Collapse (LBAC) described in a related post [LINK] . In this context, it is interesting to note that religions prior to the LBAC do not contain a Judgement Day “end of the world” of any kind even though some of them have different versions of heaven and hell mostly in afterlives or in places deep under the ground. However, religions that got started in the Early Iron Age right after the Dark Ages of the LBAC do contain an end of the world of some kind. It is likely that the existence of doomology in our time, that is an obsession with a collapse of civilization similar to the LBAC, but framed in terms of current events seen here in the form of population growth, economic growth, and fossil fuel emissions of the industrial economy, may derive from a distant genetic memory of the LBAC. It is likely that modern iron age humans carry a doomsday gene and that creates the genetic memory of the LBAC although it is clear that this gene is not universal but rare. 

 

 

PART-3: SOME PRIOR FORECASTS OF PAUL EHRLICH

  1. 1968:  The battle to feed humanity has been lost. There will be a major food shortage in the US in the 1970s and hundreds of millions are going to starve to death and by the 1980s most of the world’s important resources will be depleted. 65 million Americans will die of starvation between 1980-1989 and that by 1999, the US population will decline to 22.6 million. The problems in the US will be relatively minor compared to those in the rest of the world.
  2. 1968: By the year 2000 the United Kingdom will be simply a small group of impoverished islands, inhabited by some 70 million hungry people … If I were a gambler, I would take even money that England will not exist in the year 2000.
  3. 1970: In ten years all important animal life in the sea will be extinct. Large areas of coastline will have to be evacuated because of the stench of dead fish.
  4. 1970: Population will inevitably and completely outstrip whatever small increases in food supplies we make. The death rate will increase until at least 100-200 million people per year will be starving to death during the next ten years. Most of the people who are going to die in the greatest cataclysm in the history of man have already been born and by 1975 food shortages will have escalated the present level of world hunger and starvation into famines of unbelievable proportions. Between 1980 and 1989, some 4 billion people, including 65 million Americans, will perish in the “Great Die-Off.”
  5. 1970: Air pollution will take hundreds of thousands of lives in the next few years alone and 200,000 Americans will die in 1973 due to “smog disasters” in New York and Los Angeles. DDT and other chlorinated hydrocarbons have substantially reduced the life expectancy of people born since 1945 and these people have a life expectancy of only 49 years. Life expectancy will reach 42 years by 1980, when it might level out.
  6. 1975:  Since more than nine-tenths of the original tropical rain forests will be removed in most areas within the next 30 years or so, it is expected that half of the organisms in these areas will vanish with it.
  7. 2015:  Australia is working to become a third-world country through its economic dependence on mining natural resources for export and reliance on coal mining.

 

  1. 1985, GLOBAL WARMING COULD CAUSE FUTURE PROBLEMS, Roger Barry, Univ of Colorado data center for glaciology. Atmospheric CO2 will double by the end of the century due to burning fossil fuels. CO2 induced warming will be evident in the 1990s particularly in the melting of glaciers and polar ice caps. Glacial melting in the last century is explained primarily by global warming. There is a possibility of a seasonally open Arctic (after the summer melt) in the next century brought about by a doubling of atmospheric CO2 but it is unlikely because Arctic ice “is more stable than we thought”. The future is pretty scary all the same.
  2. 1985, WILL MOTHER NATURE’S SCREEN SAVE OUR CLIMATE? CO2 induced global warming is self correcting because warming increases cloud formation and clouds reflect sunlight back into space. Richard Somerville, Scripps Institute of Oceanography, UC San Diego.
  3. 1985, SAGAN WARNS, STOP GREENHOUSE EFFECT NOW, Carl Sagan testimony in Senate hearing. Global warming will flood coastal cities and turn Midwest farmlands into a dust bowl. The greenhouse effect makes life possible but too much or too little will kill it off.Use of fossil fuels is pushing earth into too much. The answer is to reduce fossil fuel consumption by switching to nuclear and solar.  If we do nothing we condemn our children and grandchildren to the effects of global warming. The greenhouse effect of fossil fuels is the most dangerous threat to mankind we have ever faced.
  4. 1985, RISING SEA LEVEL, The Polar Research Board of the National Academy of Sciences says that the sea level will rise 4-6 cm by 2000 and 12-27 cm by 2030 because global warming from the greenhouse effect will warm the oceans and melt glaciers and polar ice caps including Greenland.
  5. 1986, SCIENTISTS PREDICT CATASTROPHE IN GROWING GLOBAL HEAT WAVE, Scientists at Senate subcommittee hearing. The greenhouse effect will cause th earth to be warmer in he next decade than at any other time in the last 100,000 years and cause shoreline erosion, droughts, and other catastrophic changes just as the depletion of the ozone layer is doing.
  6. 1986, WARMING PANIC PREMATURE, presentation by NASA scientists to a Senate committee. The warnings of “greenhouse effect”  catastrophe by 2030 are overblown because the computer models used are not good enough to make those predictions. Northern hemisphere temperatures have declined in the last 50 years (since 1935). The National Research Council’s report of 1983 shows two warm years at the end of the record but that is not enough imply a warming trend. The Diaz and Quayle 1981 article in Monthly Weather Review shows a cooling trend from 1949 to 1979. The northern hemisphere temperature history detailed in the February 1986 issue of the Journal of Climate and Applied Meteorology does not show a warming trend. Although global warming is being promoted as “inescapable” and “undeniable” the caveat in the National Research Council’s 1983 paper says “we do not believe the overall pattern yet confirms temperature changes attributable to CO2”. The DOE’s 1985 report also makes similar caveats such as “the findings constitute insufficient evidence that the climate models are correctly projecting the effects of CO2 on climate”. Northern hemisphere ocean temperatures have not gone up since WW2. Since rising CO2 is not causing warming of the northern hemisphere there must be other more potent variables at work that are not in the model. An increase of 4% to 7% the formation of certain types of clouds could offset the heat effect of doubling CO2 (Bretherton and Coakley 1985). Yet, cirrus clouds are an unknown and not in the computer models.  Most of the computer models contain major limitations in oceanic heat transfer and changes in regional rainfall. The southern hemisphere is behaving differently and appears to be warming so perhaps the same will occur in the north eventually.
  7. 1988, GLOBAL WARMING HAS BEGUN, EXPERTS TELL SENATE: James Hansen of NASA tells the US Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee that “the earth has been warmer in the first five months of this year than in any comparable period since measurements began 130 years ago” and therefore that the effects of greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuels are now palpable. The nightmare has arrived, “the greenhouse effect is here” with the NYT reporting that “humans, by burning fossil fuels , have altered the global climate in a manner that will affect life on earth for centuries to come”. Southeast and Midwest states in the USA will experience “frequent episodes of very high temperatures and drought in the next decade and beyond”.
  8. 1988, CLIMATE CHANGE ALREADY HAPPENING, A buildup of carbon dioxide from the burning of fossil fuels  emitted by human activities into is causing the earth’s surface to warm by trapping infrared radiation from the sun and turning the entire earth into a kind of greenhouse – just as mathematical models had  predicted. Sometime between 2025 to 2050 the earth will be 3F to 9F warmer with higher latitudes 20F warmer. mathematical models had  predicted. Melting glaciers and polar ice and thermal expansion of the oceans will cause the sea level to rise by one to four feet by 2050.
  9. 1988, WARMEST YEAR EXPECTED, The hottest years on record occurred in the 1980s with the first 5 months of this year very hot. Just as the models had predicted, the rise in temperature is greater in high latitudes than in low, is greater over continents than oceans, and there is cooling in the upper atmosphere as the lower atmosphere warms up. Clearly, global warming by greenhouse gas emissions as predicted by these computer models has begun. “We can ascribe with a high degree of confidence a cause and effect relationship between the greenhouse effect and observed warming.” The snow is melting earlier each year and the rain belt is moving northwards.
  10. 1988, 35-NATION CONFERENCE ADDRESSES GLOBAL WARMING, A global warming meeting in Geneva will examine the scientific evidence. “The effort could lead to an international treaty to reduce the emission of carbon dioxide and other gases in the atmosphere that trap heat from the earth in a ”greenhouse effect” and to “justify actions by governments to limit and cope with climate change” . To mitigate global warming we must reduce the use of fossil fuels that produce carbon dioxide and also agree to further reductions in chlorofluorocarbons beyond the 50% reduction mandated in the Montreal Protocol. The global warming problem is real because ”We know that greenhouse gases are accumulating and in principle, they should lead to a global warming”.
  11. 1989, DEFORESTATION SPEEDS UP GLOBAL WARMING, Destruction of forests will speed up global warming because the drying forests will release carbon dioxide. We need a sharp reduction in the use of fossil fuels that produce carbon dioxide, and end to deforestation, and a program of reforestation. The re-development of nuclear power could also slow global warming. The world must immediately ratify a treaty to reduce the use of chlorofluorocarbons because they destroy ozone and contribute to global warming.
  12. 1989, GLOBAL WARMING STIRS STORM, “Despite Hansen’s assertions, there is widespread scientific disagreement over global warming trends. Some experts say there is no evidence that the climate has experienced any significant change over the past several decades.”
  13. 1989, FORECAST DISSENT ON GLOBAL WARMING, Skeptics are challenging dire greenhouse views” (NYT). Skeptics contend that forecasts of global warming are flawed and overstated and that the future might even hold no significant warming at all and that if the warming is modest, as they believe likely, it could bring benefits like longer growing seasons in temperate zones, more rain in dry areas and an enrichment of crops and plant life”. “It would be a mistake to take drastic and costly steps to limit emissions of carbon dioxide”. Much of the dissenters’ criticism is aimed at computerized mathematical models of the world’s climate on which forecasts of global warming are largely based. The critics also cite data on past climatic trends, and they say the theory of greenhouse warming has not yet been fully explored. “”We have an incomplete theory with a lot of bad science being done”. ” Current forecasts of global warming ”are so inaccurate and fraught with uncertainty as to be useless to policy-makers,” Richard S. Lindzen.
  14. 1989, RACE TO ASSESS GLOBAL WARMING, Scientists are using powerful computers and advanced mathematical models to simulate the world’s climate. The computer models predict that the greenhouse effect will make the earth warmer. The resulting climate change will have “important consequences for life on earth”. One problem is that the models don’t agree on what areas will suffer drought and where there will be increased precipitation. The dilemma faced by policymakers is that they don’t have information that is precise enough to make policy but if they wait for more precise information it may be too late to take effective action.
  15. 1990, SCIENTIFIC CONSENSUS CONFIRMS GLOBAL WARMING (NYT) Global warming will cause serious environmental damage starting early in the next century long before the maximum predicted temperature is reached. We must set limits beyond which the global temperature and sea level should not be permitted to rise to avoid serious and ever increasing risks posed by the continued flow of heat trapping gases into the atmosphere at present rates. The IPCC report serves as a prelude to the Second World Climate Conference in Geneva later this year.
  16. 1990, BUSH ADMINISTRATION COOL ON GLOBAL WARMING. (NYT)The Bush administration’s global warming policy is tepid because of conflicting views within the White House where some are skeptical of the computer models on which forecasts of global climate warming are based because these models have a history of past failures. These models are not good enough to form the basis for policy, they say, but that is only an excuse for inaction. Even though the computer models may not be precise, their forecasts are so grim that we must take corrective action immediately as we do not have to luxury of waiting until all the bugs are worked out. These actions should include preserving tropical forests, banning greenhouse chemicals, and increasing energy efficiency. 
  17. 1990, EXPERTS WARN ABOUT GLOBAL WARMING COSTS. A UN panel of international climate experts came out to strongly support the global warming theory saying that the buildup of CO2 from fossil fuel consumption lead to rising temperatures worldwide, altered weather patterns, lower food production, and rising sea levels. In the long run the cost of inaction exceeds the cost of mitigation. The panel put political pressure on President Bush who is not inclined to take costly measures against CO2 as long as there are credible scientists who oppose the global warming theory and as long as there is no “scientific consensus” on the issue. 
  18. 1991, PROMPT ACTION TO CURB GLOBAL WARMING THREAT, The National Academy of Sciences says US should act quickly to reduce carbon dioxide emissions by developing new generation nuclear power plants and by implementing reforestation, mass transit, and higher fuel efficiency standards for cars. The plan represents a compromise between the more extreme positions of the EPA and the Bush administration. Despite great uncertainties,global warming poses a threat sufficient to merit a prompt response. 
  19. 1991, COST OF REVERSING GREENHOUSE EFFECT WILL BE HIGH. There is division in the scientific community as to the existence and the extent of the greenhouse effect. Environmentalists say that a 20% reduction in CO2 emissions from the industrialized countries is needed. An energy saving program could reduce CO2 emissions by 35% over the next 25 years but it will be costly and it assumes technological breakthroughs. 
  20. 1991, COOLING IMPACT DISCLOSED. Burning fossil fuels produces aerosols that reflect sunlight and cool the earth. The resulting rise in temperature could more than offset the cooling achieved by reduction in CO2 emissions in the next 10 to 30 years according to an article in Nature by Prof Wigley, a climatologist at the University of East Anglia in England. The aerosol effect is a sleeping giant because it is something that has been missed and its effect is not trivial. It implies that reducing fossil fuel consumption will cause acceleration in global warming for 10 to 30 years before the gains from CO2 emission reduction kick in. 
  21. 1991, PANEL SAYS THE U.S. CAN ADAPT TO GLOBAL WARMING. (NYT), The National Academy of Sciences says that the cost of inaction is not high because the US can easily adapt to the effects of global warming due to the greenhouse effect of pollutants in the atmosphere. It is more costly to control the climate change than to adapt to it. Human adaptability has been grossly underestimated. A dissenting committee member said that indirect costs of global warming have not been adequately considered. The report said it might be harder for developing countries to adapt to global warming. It encouraged “efforts to advance regional mobility of people, capital and goods,” better preparations for disaster and famine relief and expansion of free-market economies, so that changing prices can serve as market signals that would encourage people to adapt to global warming. 
  22. 1992, TREATY TO CURB GLOBAL WARMING. Sixty nations sign an agreement at the Earth Summit in which they promise to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to 1990 levels. The agreement is not binding and there is no time table. 
  23. 1992, WHITE HOUSE VOWS ACTION TO CUT GLOBAL WARMING GASESThe concentration of greenhouse gases is growing because of human activity and that could lead to catastrophic warming of the earth in the next century. On the eve of the Earth Summit in Rio, the US is seen as uncooperative by the Europeans who insist on a year 2000 deadline for stabilizing CO2 emissions. The US supports increasing energy efficiency and a budget of $75 million in aid to developing countries to do likewise although it does not target CO2 stabilization. Global warming advocates say that this move is positive and shows that the US has abandoned the flat earth society of global warming deniers. 
  24. 1992, GLOBAL WARMING ANOMALY. Critics of global warming point out that their computer models predict a temperature rise of 1C for the last 100 years whereas the actual rise has been 0.5C; and that most of the warming in the last 100 years occurred prior to 1940 whereas most of the CO2 was added after that. 
  25. 1992, GLOBAL SNUB ON GLOBAL WARMING. To control rising temperatures due to the greenhouse effect of CO2, the Europeans want industrialized countries to put a cap on CO2 emission but the Bush administration is wary. The USA is seen as a laggard and an impediment to global action to ward off the potentially dangerous effects of global warming. A cost effective way to check global warming is for the USA to give foreign aid to developing countries like China to implement clean burning coal technologies. The impasse is that the USA is opposed to imposed CO2 emission caps. As it is, there are countries endorsing emission caps but not implementing programs to achieve them. The real cost of emission caps could be sky high. 
  26. 1993, CLINTON ADMINISTRATION: “CLIMATE CHANGE ACTION PLAN”. Emissions of CO2, CH4, NO, and CFC have caused temperatures to rise by 0.5C in the last 100 years, and unchecked, global warming could cause melting glaciers and polar ice caps, rising sea level, flooded coastal areas,droughts, damaged ecosystems, and reduced agricultural production. The Clinton administration’s Action Plan proposes 44 action steps to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to 1990 levels by the year 2000 mainly by voluntary participation of business and industry. The plan is consistent with international efforts outlined by the Earth Summit in 1992. 
  27. 1993, SCIENTISTS CONFRONT RENEWED BACKLASH AGAINST GLOBAL WARMINGConservatives and industry groups attacked the Clinton Administration’s climate change action plan and the global warming scenario characterizing it as hysteria and a plan by socialists to control the economy. Two books, one by the Cato Institute and another by Dixy Lee Ray attacked the greenhouse effect hypothesis. The Washington Post and the Wall Street Journal published articles debunking global warming. A column by Jeffrey Salmon of the George C. Marshall Institute said that there was no scientific evidence that the earth is warming because of man-made greenhouse gases. Richard Lindzen of the MIT wrote that the heat trapping amplification through water vapor assumed by the global warming computer model is flawed and therefore that even a doubling of CO2 will have little effect on temperature. Other critics point out that the computer models can’t be right because they give incorrect and inconsistent results for known historical data. Although scientists disagree on global warming the political debate is more extreme than the scientific debate. 
  28. 1993, THE NEW YORK TIMES DEFENDS GLOBAL WARMING. There are two undisputed facts about global warming – carbon dioxide produced by burning fossil fuels has been accumulating in the atmosphere for a hundred years, and carbon dioxide traps heat ?reflected? from the earth’s surface that would otherwise radiate out to space. It only remains to compute exactly how much the earth will heat up after an amount of CO2 is injected into the atmosphere. Since a real world experiment is not possible it must be carried out in mathematical models on supercomputers that simulate the earth’s climate although these models are far from perfect. Scientists have examined the results from the best computer models and advised the UN that CO2 will double by 2100 and cause a temperature rise of somewhere between 3C and 5C. These findings are supported by leading experts in the field at the UN and the National Academy of Sciences. Although the amount of heat trapped by the minute amount of CO2 in the atmosphere is small, it snowballs because it causes water to evaporate and water vapor is also a heat trapping gas. The ability of computer models to predict temperature will be greatly improved once the aerosol effect of fossil fuels is incorporated. 
  29. 1993, PRESIDENT CLINTON’S PLAN TO HALT GLOBAL WARMING. Reduction of greenhouse gas emissions in millions of tons annually: energy efficiency in home and appliance design = 16.3, non-industrial private forest management = 9.5, private sector investment in efficient electrical motors =8.8, increased efficiency of public transit and transportation = 6.6, better regulation of chemical industry = 5.0, recycling and pollution prevention =4.2, methane recovery from landfills = 4.2, natural gas star program to reduce methane emission = 3.0, promote natural gas = 2.2, promote hydroelectricity = 2.0. Greenhouse gases include carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxides and hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs). 
  30. 1993, RISING SEAS A PRECISE MEASURE OF GLOBAL WARMING. Using the most accurate system ever devised for measuring global sea levels,scientists have found a steady rise of 3 mm per year for the past two years. These data now establish beyond any doubt that the greenhouse effect is causing global warming. If this trend continues for another few years it will be solid evidence of a warming trend related to increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide. Doubts about the reliability of older and less precise temperature data may now be put aside as the very accurate sea level data clearly establishes the scientific basis of global warming. The sea level measurement satellite of the Jet Propulsion Laboratory takes 500,000 sea level measurements per day. 
  31. 1994, GLOBAL WARMING MAY HELP U.S. AGRICULTURE,(NYT). Civilization is playing a high stakes game with mother nature by emitting heat trapping greenhouse gases that could forever alter our fragile ecosystem in catastrophic ways. The planet is going to get hotter with radically altered weather and rainfall patterns. Yet, a new study appears to show that its effect on American agriculture will not be the dust bowl catastrophe that was once predicted. In fact, global warming is now expected to benefit American agriculture by greatly increasing crop yields. It will be a lot harder in the wake of this study to motivate the American will to fight global warming. It was once predicted that although Canadian and Russian farmers would gain from longer growing seasons, American farmers would lose more than $20 billion per year with “corn blistering on the stalk”. These studies were based on the inability of U.S. farmers to adapt to changes. If farmers change the crops they grow as the climate changes, they will not lose but in fact may gain in the net. 
  32. 1994, HOT AIR ON GLOBAL WARMING. The Clinton Plan of Action against global warming is “so much hot air” because it is too vague and not practical. It is typically Clintonian window dressing to give the appearance of doing something. 
  33. 1995, GLOBAL WARMING RESUMED IN 1994, CLIMATE DATA SHOW
    After a three year hiatus and a bitter winter in 1993-1994, the warming trend has returned with a warmer than usual winter in 1994-1995. Global warming is not gone, it was just temporarily interrupted by the 1991 eruption of Mount Pinatubo. Aerosols in the upper atmosphere from the eruption reflected sunlight and cooled the earth. In 1994, temperatures rebounded to the levels of the 1980s – the warmest decade on record –reaching the record high of 60C reached in 1990. Global temperatures from March to December were the warmest since 1951. The mainstream view among researchers on climatic change is that atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases could double by the end of the next century and that this could produce a global warming of 1.5C to 4.5C. By comparison, the earth is 3C to 5C warmer now than in the last ice age, which ended about 10,000 years ago. A 2C warming,could cause ice at the poles to melt, rising sea levels, shifting climatic zones, and more extreme floods, droughts, storms, and cold and heat waves. Violent and frequent weather extremes have become more common since 1980.
  34. 1995, NEW EVIDENCE POINTS TO HUMAN ROLE IN GLOBAL WARMING
    Global warming will bring altered crop growing seasons, more severe storms, more tropical diseases, and the inundation of low lying areas by rising seas. As to the cause, the scientific debate about whether the warming is a natural variation or caused by man has now been settled. A scientific consensus due to advances in computer modeling has emerged that the cause of the warming is the greenhouse effect of carbon dioxide emitted by man’s fossil fuel consumption. This finding is issued in a new report of the UN-IPCC panel of scientists and is based on the best data and science available. These findings are now beyond question. The debate as to the cause of the warming in the last 100 years is now over. The job now is to implement worldwide emission reduction plans to reverse this trend. If no action is taken global temperatures will rise 1.5C to 4.5C in the next 100 years. It is a very significant rise if you consider that 3C can make the difference between an ice age and an interglacial. Emission reduction starting right now could limit the warming to 0.5C to 2C. The warming cannot be stopped because the CO2 that is already in the air will continue to trap heat. Although it is impossible to know for sure to what extent global warming is caused by man, it only makes sense, in light of the new scientific consensus, to work with other nations to curb greenhouse gas emissions.
  35. 1995, GLOBAL WARMING JURY DELIVERS GUILTY VERDICT (New Scientist)
    UN-IPCC scientists issued a report in Dec 1995 saying that the warming of the earth by 0.5C in the last 100 years is the biggest since the last ice age and is not within the range of natural variability. Therefore it must represent a man made influence on global climate.Periods of cooling during the overall warming period can be explained in terms of global warming.
  36. 1996, GLOBAL WARMING TO BLAME FOR BLIZZARD
    Just four days after scientists announced on Jan 3 1996 that global temperatures had crept to a record high in 1995, the Northeast US was hit by record cold and snowfall but scientists say that the blizzard of 1996 as well as the bitter cold in Europe were actually caused by global warming because warming increases evaporation that in turn increases precipitation. Besides, the effects of global warming are small compared with seasonal variations and so severe winters are not necessarily incompatible with global warming. The bitter winter this year represents a southward bulge of the Arctic air mass and not a cooling trend.
  37. 1996, GLOBAL WARMING POSES THREAT TO PUBLIC HEALTH
    (NYT) According to UN scientists, there are serious threats to public health if actions to reduce global warming come too slowly. The earth’s climate will change rapidly in the coming century as greenhouse gases trap solar radiation. Thousands could die in major cities in heat waves and tens of millions will face malaria epidemics in areas where the disease does not now occur. Last July a heat wave killed 465 people in Chicago alone. This is an issue that must be taken seriously. Climate negotiators are warned against taking a wait and see attitude because the consequences of inaction are dire. We must act quickly even as industry backed lobbyists call for a go slow approach fearing harm to economic growth.The voluntary approach in the USA is not working as emissions have continued to rise since the 1992 treaty at the Earth Summit. Carbon dioxide emissions rose 12% from 1990 to 1995. Immediate action is needed to reverse this trend. Because adverse public health is likely to result from climate change, we do not have the luxury of seeking definitive empirical evidence before acting.
  38. 1996, UN IPCC REPORT
    Ahead of Geneva, the second follow up meeting on global warming after the Earth Summit in Rio, the UN IPCC has issued a report that says that humans are influencing global climate. Excerpts from the report issued in June 1996 say that Earth’s temperature will rise by 2C in the next 100 years with serious negative effects. Extreme temperatures will become normal. Habitats will change. Many plants and animals will become extinct. Some regions will suffer water shortages. Polar ice will melt. The sea level will rise. Emissions of greenhouse gases that trap solar energy will double by the year 2010. A 50% reduction in emissions over the next 50 years is needed to reverse the warming trend. We are currently not on track to meet emission reduction guidelines set in the 1992 Earth Summit in Rio. Yet the Rio commitments are not enough to halt global warming.
  39. 1996, U.S. URGES BINDING ACCORD ON GLOBAL WARMING
    As an endorsement of the IPCC report the Clinton administration is urging 150 nations meeting in Geneva to agree to binding cuts on greenhouse gas emissions to control global warming as long as the targets are moderate and achievable; although many feel that Clinton is playing politics with global warming in an effort to garner the green vote. Ratification of binding reductions in the Republican controlled Congress is unlikely.
  40. 1997, THE BBC MAKES THE CASE FOR THE KYOTO PROTOCOL
    Twenty years of hard data from meteorological stations and nature show a clear warming trend. Growth rings in Mongolian and Canadian trees are getting wider. Butterflies in California are moving to higher ground once too cold for butterflies. Stalactites in Britain are growing faster. The growing season for crops in Australia is getting longer. Permafrost in Siberia and Canada is melting. The evidence is there anywhere you look. A warming rate is one 1C per century is enough to wreak havoc. The cause is the greenhouse effect of CO2 emissions from fossil fuels as well as CFCs and HCFCs that trap heat. The effect is being compounded as deforestation simultaneously removes trees that absorb CO2. Some scientists are skeptical but the majority view is that the greenhouse effect is real and it requires urgent action. This conclusion rests on the results from sophisticated computer simulation models that give the best possible information on this topic even though they are not perfect. These models are giving us scary accounts of the future and we should be paying attention. The IPCC tell us that melting ice and thermal expansion of oceans will cause the sea level to rise one meter by 2037 and inundate low lying areas and island nations. Extreme weather events will become common. El Nino and La Nina cycles will become more extreme. There will be millions of climate refugees driven from their home by global warming. Some regions of the world will become hotter, others colder, some wetter, others drier. Entire weather systems will be dramatically altered. The Gulf Stream will switch off making Europe colder. Tropical diseases such as malaria will ravage the world as vectors migrate to higher latitudes and altitudes. Some wheat farmers may be able to grow more wheat but the net effect of global warming is overwhelmingly negative.
  41. 1997, THE ROAD TO KYOTO
    In the Earth Summit of 1992 developed nations promised to hold their year 2000 greenhouse gas emissions to 1990 levels but they have not acted because of the perceived economic impact of cutting emissions. Forecasts show that CO2 emissions in 2000 will be 14% above 1990 levels. Research in the USA and Australia show that reduced emissions will mean reduced living standards while those in Europe indicate emission reduction will actually have a positive effect on the economy. The industrial lobby is stronger in the USA and it is opposed to emission reduction. The Earth Summit agreement has no teeth because it cannot be enforced. The upcoming meeting in Kyoto in December is expected to address these deficiencies with legally binding cuts in greenhouse gas on a timetable.
  42. 1997, U.S. STANCE ON GLOBAL WARMING OFFERS COLD COMFORT
    (LA Times) The USA is out of sync with the rest of the world in the crucial ecological issue of global warming. President Clinton’s statement was met with disdain in Bonn where 150 nations are meeting to control global warming. The U.S. is seen as an environmental pariah in this meeting.
  43. 1997, WORLD VIEWS ON GLOBAL WARMING (LA TIMES)
    Entire nations among the Pacific islands vanish beneath the waves, coastal communities in the USA from North Carolina to the Texas Gulf wash out to sea, wild swings in precipitation first bring drought and then torrential rains and floods, coastal mudslides in California become routine, and maple trees of the North die out as dengue fever and mosquito borne encephalitis move in. In December delegates from 167 nations will go to Kyoto to write a binding treaty among nations to fight against carbon dioxide emissions and save the planet. There are serious implications for humanity if actions to curb global warming come too slowly.
  44. 1997, THE MYTHS ABOUT GLOBAL WARMING
    (Chicago Tribune, climate denier?) The Union of Concerned Scientists, President Clinton, and VP Gore have repeatedly stated that “the threat of global warming is real and it is already here”. Yet, the IPCC has admitted that none of their computer models of climate has been validated by the record. Man made emissions of carbon dioxide are so small compared to natural emissions that they could not possibly cause climate change.
  45. 1997, NATIONS DIVIDED ON HOW MUCH TO CUT EMISSIONS AND BY WHEN
    A global warming summit of 150 nations opened in Kyoto Monday. Its agenda is to reduce greenhouse gas emissions that are causing potentially catastrophic increase of carbon dioxide in the earth’s atmosphere. The summit is dogged by contentious economic, political, and scientific questions. “People are still very cautious about acting on climate change because they count the economic costs but not the benefits”.
  46. 1997, WRANGLING CONTINUES OVER GLOBAL WARMING TREATY
    (CNN) Climate delegates in Kyoto are working overtime to forge a treaty to cut greenhouse gas emissions. Greenhouse gas emission reduction targets of 6%-8% below 1990 levels by 2008 have been set for 34 industrialized nations. None has been set for developing countries. Contentious issues remain. They include the twin American proposals to allow the industrialized nations to achieve their reduction target by buying carbon credits and offsets from developing countries; and the imposition of binding emission cuts on four non-industrialized countries, namely, China, India, Brazil, and Mexico to prevent these emerging economies from gaining from unfair competition. U.S. ratification is not likely without these provisions.
  47. 1997, SCIENTISTS WARN KYOTO DELEGATES
    “Without reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, scientists warn that carbon dioxide in the atmosphere could double in the next century, warming the atmosphere and triggering an environmental chain reaction that could raise sea levels, change ocean currents and intensify damage from storms, droughts and the spread of tropical diseases” (CNN).
  48. 1998, WEATHER TREND IS PROOF OF GLOBAL WARMING
    Last year was the hottest year on record and this decade has already produced 9 of the 11 hottest years of the century. The data show that man made greenhouse gases are causing a potentially disastrous warming of the earth. These data should help Pres. Clinton as he seeks Senate approval for the Kyoto Treaty. That there is a human component in the rising temperature is becoming clearer with each year’s measurements and the likelihood that the rising temperature is a natural phenomenon is becoming increasingly remote. For the last three years the data have pointed in the direction of man made global warming.
  49. 1998, U.S. SIGNS INTERNATIONAL GLOBAL WARMING TREATY
    Delegates in Kyoto hammered out a treaty that sets 2000 as the deadline for creating a a global mechanism to police emissions reductions of greenhouse gases that cause global warming and to hold failing nations accountable. The treaty allows industrialized nations to meet emission reduction targets by trading emission credits or funding clean air projects in poor nations. In the USA there is stiff opposition from Senate opponents who demand similar emission reduction by developing countries.
  50. 1998, IT’S OUR MOVE ON GLOBAL WARMING
    The debate on global warming started with the scientific question about whether the problem was real and evolved into an economic and political debate between developed and developing countries on who should act to reduce emissions. At the global warming conference in Buenos Aires this weekend the USA signed on to the Kyoto Accord but there is stiff opposition to ratification in the Senate without an equal commitment by developing nations.
  51. 1998, NEW DATA SHARPEN GLOBAL WARMING DEBATE
    Satellite measurements of temperatures of the lower troposphere show a cooling trend from 1979 to 1995 contradicting the warming trend in ground based temperatures. However, this discrepancy can be offset by revising the satellite measurements with the “falling satellite effect”. As the satellite slows and drops the instrument perceives the same temperature as cooler. The amount of this revision is in dispute. It could be insignificant or it could be enough to make the apparent cooling trend into a warming trend again. NASA scientist James Hansen says that the perceived cooling is just an artifact of the falling satellite phenomenon and not real but John Christy of the University of Alabama Huntsville says that the corrected satellite data do not show warming.
  52. 1998, WORLD DEBATES GLOBAL WARMING
    Climate scientists in the Hadley Center on Climate Change have issued a report on global warming timed to coincide with the meeting in Buenos Aires where delegates from 180 nations are meeting to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The findings of the report based on a computer model for the case with no emission reductions are as follows: 1998 will be UK’s hottest year since 1106, “the warmest year of the millennium”; sometime between 2041 and 2070 we will see a sharp rise in sick, hungry, and thirsty people; by 2048 the world’s forests will become so degraded that they will change from net CO2 sinks to net CO2 producers further accelerating global warming; human greenhouse gas emissions have contributed substantially to global warming over the past half century; the climate model is validated by its ability to reconstruct the last 150 years of climate conditions; the 1997-1998 ElNino is the most extreme on record; in the next 100 years global temperatures will rise by 6C – the most extreme in the last 10,000 years. The Amazon forest will die out and rot releasing carbon dioxide. Tropical grasslands will be transformed into deserts. For the first half of the 21st century, vegetation will absorb CO2 at a rate of about 2-3 GtC per year while human emissions of CO2 are about 7GtC a year. From 2050 onwards, vegetation dying under the impact of climate change will itself add about 2GtC a year to greenhouse emissions, further intensifying global warming. Global warming will accelerat due to “positive feedback” – a way by which the global warming we have caused will itself cause further global warming. More than 170 million people will suffer from water shortage. Crop yields will increase in areas like Canada and Europe, but nearer the equator they will shrink. Some 18% more of Africa’s people will be at risk of hunger simply because of climate change. Sea levels will rise by 21 cm inundating 20 million people. Malaria infection will increase, and spread to areas where it is not currently seen. The overwhelming consensus of scientific opinion is that climate change is real, and that we are playing the chief part in causing it. The report confirms previous findings of the panel of scientists at the IPCC, “the world’s most authoritative group of climatologists”.
  53. 1998, GORE CLAIMS NEW DATA PROVE GLOBAL WARMING IS TAKING PLACE. The first half of 1998 was the warmest six months ever recorded on earth. The month of July, 1998 will also set a record. A heat wave in the Southwest has caused dozens of deaths with the hottest weather to hit the state since 1980. Tuesday was the 9th straight day that the temperature there has broken 100F. The heat wave is accompanied by drought that will drain $4.6 billion from the Texas economy in the next few months. Oklahoma had 6 deaths and Louisiana 20 deaths from the heat wave. According to NOAA data the near surface temperature for June 1998 over both land and water were at an all time high. There is no time in data history that we have seen this sequence of record setting for six consecutive months. It is compelling evidence that global temperatures are on a long term warming track. These are evidence of long term warming of the planet by man’s greenhouse gas emissions. How much more proof do we need that global warming is real? Congress must not block efforts by the White House to reduce heat trapping greenhouse gases.
  54. 1999, STUDY SHOWS ARCTIC ICE SHRINKING BECAUSE OF GLOBAL WARMING. Sea ice in the Arctic Basin is shrinking by 14000 square miles per year “probably” because of global warming caused by human activity according to a new international study that used 46 years of data and sophisticated computer simulation models to tackle the specific question of whether the loss of Arctic ice is a natural variation or caused by global warming. The computer model says that the probability that these changes were caused by natural variation is 1% but when global warming was added to the model the ice melt was a perfect fit. Therefore the ice melt is caused by human activities that emit greenhouse gases.
  55. 1999, SURPRISE THEORY BEHIND BIG ANTARCTIC THAW
    An article in the Journal Science says that the melting of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet is a natural event not related to global warming contrary to claims by climate scientists. The WAIS is indeed melting quite rapidly receding at the rate of 400 feet per year but it has been doing so for thousands of years long before human activity and greenhouse gas emissions, having receded 800 miles since the last ice age. If the process continues unchecked it will melt completely in another 7000 years. Therefore it seems unlikely that the event is linked to human activity or that the time frame of a collapse of the ice shelf could fall within 100 years.
  56. 1999, WARM ARCTIC MAY ENHANCE GLOBAL WARMING. A sophisticated computer simulation model shows that increasing the temperature or snowfall on the Arctic tundra can triple its CO2 emissions from the soil of the tundra. The Arctic contains 1/3 of the earth’s soil stored carbon dioxide. The computer model shows a positive feedback look that can cause global warming to snowball because warming in itself can increase carbon dioxide in the air and accelerate the rate of warming. It is a frightening scenario that could cause global warming catastrophe to occur sooner than previously thought.
  57. Note: This period is marked by 1.The Kyoto Protocol and the warm-up meetings in Geneva and Bonn, 2.Differences between the USA and Europe in Kyoto, 3.The differences between land based and satellite based temperature measurements, 4.A sharp rise in scientific rhetoric to rally policy makers to their cause in Kyoto, 5.The bitter northern winter of 1995-1996 and its explanation in terms of global warming. 6. The 1998 climate conference in Buenos Aires, 7.The Clinton administration’s apparent endorsement of the global warming agenda, 8.New controversy about the West Antarctic Ice Shelf
  58. 00, CORAL REEFS HIT HARD BY GLOBAL WARMING
    Rapidly warming seas caused by global warming has turned coral reefs into endangered ecosystems. According to coral reef scientists meeting in Bali, 25% of the world’s coral reefs are already gone. Without urgent and immediate CO2 emission reductions coral reefs will be completely gone from the planet in 30 to 50 years.
  59. 2000, SATELLITE TEMPERATURES SHOW UPPER ATMOSPHERE COOLING
    According to John Christy, satellite data show temperature of the upper atmosphere has been cooling by 0.3C per year since 1979. Climate scientists point out that warming of the surface and cooling of the upper atmosphere are not necessarily inconsistent if you take into account things like the Mt Pinatubo volcanic eruption and ozone depletion. It is possible for the upper atmosphere to cool while the earth’s surface is warming because volcanic debris in the stratosphere occludes sunlight and ozone depletion lowers the amount of heat being absorbed in the upper atmosphere.
  60. 2000, GLOBAL WARMING IS THE RESULT OF HUMAN ACTIVITY
    According to an IPCC panel of scientists, human activities that release greenhouse gases like CO2 into the atmosphere are at least partially responsible for global warming because greenhouse gases trap heat reflected from the surface of the earth. The consequent global warming will raise surface temperature by between 1C and 3.5C by the year 2100. The warming will cause melting ice and thermal expansion of the oceans and raise sea levels by between one and three feet and flood coastal areas. There will be an increase in the intensity and frequency of extreme weather such as storms,droughts, and floods. Tropical diseases will spread into a pandemic. Plants and animals that fail to adapt to these changes will die off in waves of extinctions and loss of biodiversity.
  61. 2000, CHINA TO BECOME NEW GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSION LEADER
    The Kyoto Protocol will cause the economies of industrialized nations to suffer and give developing countries an unfair advantage in global trade. China, with a booming, coal-based economy, is projected to zoom past the United States in greenhouse emissions by 2025.
  62. 2000, GLOBAL WARMING IS UNDOUBTEDLY REAL
    blue-ribbon panel of climate scientists from the National Academy of Sciences has issued a report saying that “global warming is undoubtedly real” and it is under way with dire consequences to follow. Global temperatures have risen more sharply in the last 20 years than at any time this century. The contradictory evidence from satellite data showing cooling of the upper atmosphere are irrelevant. There is no mention in the report of a link between global warming and human activity.
  63. 2000, CLIMATE TALKS COLLAPSE
    The UN climate meeting in the Hague has collapsed in disarray over disagreements between the EU and the USA on how to curb greenhouse gas emissions. At issue is the use of “sinks” in the emission accounting with the USA saying that it should be able to use existing forests and agriculture as carbon sinks. Nations have been arguing over contentious positions on how they can do as little as possible to technically reach Kyoto targets. Under the Kyoto Protocol,worldwide emissions of heat-trapping gases must decline to 5.2 percent below 1990 levels by 2012.
  64. 2001, GLOBAL WARMING NOW UNSTOPPABLE
    A 500-member IPCC led by Sir John Houghton issued the most authoritative report on global warming so far. It contains the following alarming findings: so much CO2 has already been injected into the air that global warming is “already unstoppable”; the world is warming at an accelerating rate; tens of millions of people around the world will be driven from their homes in the coming decades to become climate change refugees; governments must take urgent action to reduce carbon dioxide emissions; climate change is now so rapid that it is not possible for us to adapt to these changes; human ecosystems and biodiversity will all be affected and it will affect the world economy; the temperature rise in the next 100 years will be between 1.4C and 5.8C, significantly higher than previously thought; “there is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the past 50 years is attributable to human activities; human influences will continue to change atmospheric composition throughout the 21st century; global warming will persist for many centuries by virtue of the CO2 we have already put into the air; change caused by humans is far greater than the changes due to nature; global warming is caused by carbon dioxide trapping heat.
  65. 2001, GLOBAL WARMING REPORT CREATES PRESIDENTIAL HEADACHE
    (Time) A study of global warming by the National Academy of Sciences ordered by President Bush has concluded, to the President’s chagrin, that, despite the uncertainties about global warming, it is real and that it is not natural but caused by human activities that produce greenhouse gases. The Bush team was surprised and “shocked” by the report which went counter to their stance on global warming which saw the issue as a left wing conspiracy to take control of energy policy. The report comes just in time for a trip by the President to Europe where leaders are furious with the US for not joining the Kyoto Protocol. Having rejected Kyoto out of hand W, now having to cede some ground to the Europeans, admitted that global warming was a problem.
  66. 2001, GLOBAL WARMING ON MARS 
    Researchers say that Mars, too, may be a victim of global warming. The planet’s solid carbon-dioxide polar caps seem to have receded over the past Martian year (687 days). The more they evaporate, the more the atmosphere warms.
  67. 2001, GLOBAL WARMING MAY TRIGGER ABRUPT CLIMATE CHANGE
    A report by the National Research Council (USA) says that global warming may trigger climate changes so abrupt that ecosystems will not be able to adapt. Look for local or short term cooling, floods, droughts, and other unexpected changes. A growing CO2 concentration in the atmosphere due to the use of fossil fuels is to blame. Some regional climates have changed by as much as 10C in 10 years. Antarctica’s largest glaciers are rapidly thinning, and in the last 10 years have lost up to 150 feet of thickness in some places, enough to raise global sea levels by 0.4 mm. Global warming is a real problem and it is getting worse.
  68. 2001, IPCC REPORT
    Carbon dioxide from unhindered burning of fossil fuels will raise earth’s temperature 5.8C by 2100. The work of the panel over the last 10 years has now effectively ended the debate about man made global warming It is time for governments to get serious about reducing emissions.No country can afford to ignore the coming transformation of its natural and human environment. The poor and vulnerable are at greatest risk.
  69. 2002, JAPAN RATIFIES KYOTO PROTOCOL
    Japan, the 4th largest CO2 emitter in the world ratified the Kyoto Protocol to reduce emissions and urged other industrialized nations to follow suit.
  70. 2002, ICE SHELF COLLAPSE A WARNING
    A piece of ice the size of Rhode island broke off the Larsen ice shelf in Antarctica and within a month it dissipated sending a huge flotsam of ice into the sea. At about the same time an iceberg the size of Delaware broke off the Thwaites Glacier. A few months ago parts of the Ross ice shelf had broken off in a similar way. These events serve as a dramatic reminders that global warming is real and its effects are potentially catastrophic and underscores the urgent need for a binding international agreement to cut greenhouse gas emissions.
  71. 2002, HUMANS CAUSE GLOBAL WARMING, U.S. ADMITS
    In major U-turn by the USA, the EPA has acknowledged for the first time that greenhouse gas emissions from human activity cause global warming but stopped short of endorsing the Kyoto Protocol as all 15 EU nations have done choosing instead to follow a voluntary emission reduction program of its own design. The EPA report is contrary to the position of the White House. President Bush distanced himself from the report saying that it was “put out by the bureaucracy” and that the report itself had caveats with respect to the uncertainties inherent in global warming science.
  72. 2002, U.S. EPA REPORT ON GLOBAL WARMING
    The 2002 EPA report endorses the global warming theory that underlies the Kyoto Protocol saying that “Greenhouse gases are accumulating in the Earth’s atmosphere as a result of human activities, causing global mean surface air temperatures and subsurface ocean temperatures to rise”. Other excerpts: US greenhouse gas emissions will rise 43% from 2000 to 2020; a few ecosystems, such as alpine meadows in the Rocky Mountains and some barrier islands, are likely to disappear
    entirely; changes observed over the last several decades are likely due tohuman activities. It concludes that global warming is a threat and that it can be mitigated by reducing carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels.
  73. 2003, SOOT WORSE FOR GLOBAL WARMING THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT
    Soot that lands on snow has caused ¼ of the warming since 1880 because dirty snow traps more solar heat than pristine snow and induces a strong warming effect, according to a new computer model by James Hansen of NASA. It explains why sea ice and glaciers are melting faster than they should. Reducing soot emissions is an effective tool to curb global warming. It is easier to cut soot emissions than it is to cut CO2 emissions but we still need to reduce CO2 emissions in order to stabilize the atmosphere.
  74. 2003, GLOBAL WARMING TO AFFECT SKI AREAS
    (UNEP report) Global warming will melt snow at lower altitudes forcing ski areas to move higher and higher up the mountain. Downhill skiing could disappear altogether in some resorts. A retreating snow line will cut off base villages from their ski runs by 2030. Climate change is happening now and we can measure it. Traditional low altitude ski resorts of Europe will have to either shut down or suffer higher costs of snow making. Global warming will push the altitude for ski resorts from 4265 feet to 4900-6000 feet. In Switzerland,several low-lying resorts are already having problems getting bank loans. Austria’s snow line is set to rise by 656 to 984 feet in the next 30-50 years leaving many ski resorts behind. Banks are now less willing to lend money to ski resorts. Temperatures are set to rise by 2C to 6C by 2100 unless dramatic action is taken to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, according to the IPCC, a body of 2000 scientists.
  75. 2004, GRIM SIGNS OF GLOBAL WARMING
    Global warming has unleashed massive ecological changes that are already under way. These changes are ushering in a grim future including massive species extinctions, an elevation of sea levels by 3 feet, wholesale changes to the Arctic, and disruptions to the earth’s life support system. These changes should serve as a wake up call to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
  76. 2004, PEW CENTER REPORT
    Observed impacts of global climate change in the US. Global warming is plain to see if you look at how it has affected wildlife. Half of the 150 species studied showed these effects. Global warming is changing life in your own back yard. Many species are going extinct in the southern edge of their range and doing better in the northern edge. Edith’s checkerspot butterfly is in sharp decline near the Mexico-California border where it has become too warm and dry, but their numbers are rising in British Columbia. The red fox is heading north and can now be found in the Arctic. In Florida and the Gulf coast people are seeing many many new species coming up from Mexico and the Caribbean. A previous worldwide study of 1500 species showed that this effect is global.
  77. 2004, ARCTIC CLIMATE IMPACT ASSESSMENT
    An unprecedented 4-year study of the Arctic shows that polar bears, walruses, and some seals are becoming extinctArctic summer sea ice may disappear entirely. Combined with a rapidly melting Greenland ice sheet, it will raise the sea level 3 feet by 2100 inundating lowlands from Florida to Bangladesh. Average winter temperatures in Alaska and the rest of the Arctic are projected to rise an additional 7 to 13 degrees over the next 100 years because of increasing emissions of greenhouse gases from human activities. The area is warming twice as fast as anywhere else because of global air circulation patterns and natural feedback loops, such as less ice reflecting sunlight, leading to increased warming at ground level and more ice melt. Native peoples’ ways of life are threatened. Animal migration patterns have changed, and the thin sea ice and thawing tundra make it too dangerous for humans to hunt and travel.
  78. 2004, US STATES SUE OVER GLOBAL WARMING
    Eight states and the City of New York have sued five electric power public utilities for failing to cut greenhouse gas emissions and for causing global warming. They are demanding emission reductions of 3% per year for 10 years. Currently carbon dioxide is not recognized as a pollutant by the Clean Air Act and the federal govt is therefore accused of abdicating its responsibility in the matter.
  79. 2004, GLOBAL WARMING TO MELT GREENLAND ICE SHEET
    A meltdown of the massive ice sheet, which is more than 3km-thick would raise sea levels by an average seven meters, threatening countries such as Bangladesh, certain islands in the Pacific and some parts of Florida. Greenland’s huge ice sheet could melt within the next thousand years if emissions of carbon dioxide (CO
    2) and global warming are not reduced.
  80. 2004, RAPID ARCTIC WARMING BRINGS SEA LEVEL RISE
    The Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA) report says: increasing greenhouse gases from human activities is causing the Arctic to warm twice as fast as the rest of the planet; in Alaska, western Canada, and eastern Russia winter temperatures have risen by 2C to 4C in the last 50 years; the Arctic will warm by 4C to 7C by 2100. A portion of Greenland’s ice sheet will melt; global sea levels will rise; global warming will intensify. Greenland contains enough melting ice to raise sea levels by 7 meters; Bangkok, Manila, Dhaka, Florida, Louisiana, and New Jersey are at risk of inundation; thawing permafrost and rising seas threaten Arctic coastal regions; climate change will accelerate and bring about profound ecological and social changes; the Arctic is experiencing the most rapid and severe climate change on earth and it’s going to get a lot worse; Arctic summer sea ice will decline by 50% to 100%polar bears will be driven towards extinction; this report is an urgent SOS for the Arctic; forest fires and insect infestations will increase in frequency and intensity; changing vegetation and rising sea levels will shrink the tundra to its lowest level in 21000 years; vanishing breeding areas for birds and grazing areas for animals will cause extinctions of many species; “if we limit emission of heat trapping carbon dioxide we can still help protect the Arctic and slow global warming”.
  81. 2004 GLOBAL WARMING THE MOVIE
    Hollywood released a movie called “The day after tomorrow”, a dramatization of the horrors of global warming complete with superstorms, and a “climate shift”. There is death and destruction on a global scale Hollywood style. It is promoted by the global warming camp as “a teachable moment” and derided by skeptics as goofy. It helps to dramatically increase public support for global warming issues and for reduction of carbon dioxide emissions.
  82. 2004 GLOBAL WARMING WILL LEAVE ARCTIC ICE FREE
    The Arctic ice cap is shrinking at an unprecedented rate and will be gone by 2070. It has shrunk by 15%to 20% in the last 30 years. This process will accelerate with the Arctic warming twice as fast as the rest of the world due to a buildup of heat trapping greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.The findings support the broad scientific consensus that global warming is caused mainly by rising atmospheric greenhouse gases as a result of emissions from cars, factories and power plants.
  83. 2005: HURRICANE KATRINA WAS CAUSED BY OUR USE OF FOSSIL FUELS
    A high level of interest in tropical cyclones derives from an unusually active hurricane season in 2004 when more than 14 tropical cyclones formed in the North Atlantic basin. Four of these storms intensified to Category 4 or greater and made landfall in the USA causing considerable damage. The even more dramatic 2005 season followed in its heels with more than thirty depressions. Four of them intensified to Category 5 and three made landfall. The most intense was Hurricane Wilma but the most spectacular was Hurricane Katrina which made landfall in Florida and again in Louisiana. Its devastation was facilitated by a breach in a levee system that was unrelated to AGW but its dramatic consequences made it an icon of the possible extreme weather impacts of fossil fuel caused global warming. Climate scientists stepped up quickly and said that Katrina was confirmed as a climate change even by climate models. More info:  https://tambonthongchai.com/2018/09/18/climate-change-hurricanes/
  84. 2005: METHANE BOMB IN THE PEAT BOGS OF SIBERIA
    Man-made global warming is melting the vast peat bogs of Siberia. The melt will release enough methane and carbon dioxide to bring about climate change Armageddon by virtue of a positive feedback and its non-linear process gone berserk. This scare is repeated in 2007 saying that global warming is causing the Alaska coast to melt. More info: http://chaamjamal.blogspot.com/2009/04/reference-alaska-coasts-melting-bangkok.html
  85. 2006: CORAL DOOMED TO EXTINCTION BY GLOBAL WARMING
    Climate scientists see all coral bleaching as anomalous and unnatural and therefore symptoms of human caused global warming, as if they had never seen coral bleaching before. In 2006, they issued an alarm that “it was already too late for the coral” because we have put too much CO2 into the atmosphere and the warming and acidification of the oceans thus caused will kill off all the world’s coral. More info: http://chaamjamal.blogspot.com/2009/09/reference-it-is-already-too-late-for.html
  86. 2007: A PLAN TO SAVE BANGKOK FROM GLOBAL WARMING’S SEA LEVEL RISE
    It has been more than a year now that scientists and climate experts sought a budget of 100 billion baht to build a sea wall 80 kilometers long from the mouth of the Ta Chin river to the Bang Pakong river to protect the city of Bangkok from being inundated by the sea that was projected to rise by 20 cm per year due to man-made global warming. More info: http://chaamjamal.blogspot.com/2009/02/reference-group-floats-plan-to-keep.html
  87. 2007: WE PASSED THE CLIMATE CHANGE TIPPING POINT AND ARE DOOMED
    Ahead of the Bali meeting in 2007, climate scientists flooded the media with press releases that were increasingly alarmist in their pitch to save the planet from fossil fuels, so much so that they got carried away and announced that it was too late to save the planet for we had passed the tipping point because the damage done by the carbon dioxide already in the air had put into motion irreversible non-linear changes that would lead us to climate doom whether or not we cut emissions. Soon thereafter, having realized their folly, they quickly reversed themselves just in time for Bali by saying that there was still time to save the planet after all. More info: http://chaamjamal.blogspot.com/2009/09/reference-sea-rise-is-virtually.html
  88. 2007: OUR USE OF FOSSIL FUELS IS CAUSING GREENLAND TO MELT
    A comparison of Landsat photos taken on 8/11/1985 and 9/5/2002 shows that global warming caused by our use of fossil fuels is melting the massive Greenland ice sheet and exposing the rocky peninsula beneath the ice previously covered by ice. More info: http://chaamjamal.blogspot.com/2009/10/reference-melting-glacier-uncovers.html
  89. 2007: HIMALAYAN GLACIER MELT WILL DEVASTATE BILLIONS IN ASIA
    The rate of retreat of the retreating Gangotri glacier in the Himalayan mountains has accelerated from 19 meters/yr in 1971 to 34 meters/yr in 2001. Extrapolated of the observed acceleration forward shows that global warming devastation due to carbon dioxide was only a decade away for people who depend on the Ganges and other rivers with headwaters in the Himalayas. More info: http://chaamjamal.blogspot.com/2009/12/reference-himalayan-glacier-melts-to.html
  90. 2007-2010: CLIMATE CHANGE DRYING UP ANDES ICE AND WATER SUPPLIES 
    Global warming caused by our use of fossil fuels has devastated the Andes Mountains in South America where they are losing their ice and water supplies. We must help these poor people by reducing fossil fuel emissions and thereby curbing global warming and climate change. More info: http://chaamjamal.blogspot.com/2010/01/reference-vanishing-ice-and-political.html
  91. 2007: THE ARCTIC IS SCREAMING
    Climate science declares that the low sea ice extent in the Arctic is the leading indicator of climate change. We are told that the Arctic “is screaming”, that Arctic sea ice extent is the “canary in the coal mine”, and that Polar Bears and other creatures in the Arctic are dying off and facing imminent extinction. Scientists say that the melting sea ice has set up a positive feedback system that would cause the summer melts in subsequent years to be greater and greater until the Arctic becomes ice free in the summer of 2012. We must take action immediately to cut carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels. http://chaamjamal.blogspot.com/2010/04/reference-less-ice-less-pups-bangkok.html
  92. 2007: THE ICE FREE ARCTIC CLAIMS GAIN MOMENTUM
    The unusual summer melt of Arctic sea ice in 2007 has encouraged climate science to warn the world that global warming will cause a steep decline in the amount of ice left in subsequent summer melts until the Arctic becomes ice free in summer and that could happen as soon as 2080 or maybe 2060 or it could even be 2030. This time table got shorter and shorter until, without a “scientific” explanation, the ice free year was brought up to 2013. In the meantime, the data showed that in 2008 and 2009 the summer melt did not progressively increase as predicted but did just the opposite by making a comeback in 2008 that got even stronger in 2009. More info: http://chaamjamal.blogspot.com/2009/12/reference-polar-ice-may-go-in-five.html
  93. 2007: ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT BY HUMANS IS A WAR AGAINST NATURE
    In the Bali climate meeting scientists declare economic development is a bad thing because hurricanes, cyclones, snowstorms, and floods are killing people as a result of the war on nature waged by humanity in pursuit of economic development. More info: http://chaamjamal.blogspot.com/2007/12/reference-inconvenient-truth-in-bali.html
  94. 2007: DEVELOPMENT BANKS TRICK POOR COUNTRIES INTO CLIMATE ACTION
    In the UNFCCC and Kyoto Protocol climate action plan, only the rich industrialized Annex-1 and Annex-2 countries have emissions reduction and other climate action obligations. Poor developing countries, classified as non-Annex, have no climate action obligation but in fact are allowed to increase their emissions to achieve economic development and property alleviation. Yet development agencies like the UNDP and development banks, particularly the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank, whose stated mission is to help developing countries to develop are using their leverage with the poor instead to trick them into climate action by refusing development assistance for projects that violate the climate action and emission reduction standards of rich countries. These actions are illegal and criminal. More info: http://chaamjamal.blogspot.com/2007/12/global-warming-is-caused-by-worlds-rich.html
  95. 2007: CLIMATE CHANGE DROUGHT IN THE ANDES MOUNTAINS
    A semi-arid region subject to droughts and supplied by melt water from evanescent glaciers that have come and gone in cycles for thousands of years is selected by climate scientists to show that fossil fuel emissions cause drought. More info: http://chaamjamal.blogspot.com/2007/12/reference-early-climate-change-victim.html
  96. 2007: CLIMATE CHANGE REACHES A TIPPING POINT
    Since 1998, and most recently in 2007, we have been told on a fairly regular basis that climate change caused by our use of fossil fuels has reached the “tipping point”. When asked to define the term they said that it is not a point of no return and that a definition would be forthcoming; but that there is no doubt that we have reached the tipping point in 2007. More info: http://chaamjamal.blogspot.com/2007/12/reference-arctic-is-screaming-bangkok.html
  97. 2007REPORT BY THE CIVIL SOCIETY COALITION ON CLIMATE CHANGE
    The Civil Society Coalition on Climate Change has published a report showing that the mortality rate from extreme weather events in the period 1990-2006 is almost half of that for the prior 90 years of the 20th century and that this mortality rate is not rising but has been falling steadily since 1920. Climate scientists say that this report is not credible because its authors are in the pay of oil companies. More info: http://chaamjamal.blogspot.com/2007/12/reference-climate-change-hits-asia-hard.html
  98. 2007: THE EXTINCTION OF ADELIE PENGUINS AND LOSS OF BIODIVERSITY
    The penguins are flightless and not well dispersed and therefore at risk of extinction but that extinction, if it happens, will lead to a new species and even greater biodiversity. This is how nature works. Nature does not need environmentalists, much less UN bureaucrats, to micromanage these processes nor is such micromanagement possible. More info: http://chaamjamal.blogspot.com/2007/12/reference-warming-threatens-penguins.html
  99. 2007: CLIMATE ACTION EVEN IF THERE ARE ERRORS IN THE CLIMATE MODEL
    Climate scientists say that errors in their climate model do not detract from the importance of reducing greenhouse gas emissions because the reduction can only do good and can do no harm. They also warn us that contrarians that say otherwise are paid agents of the fossil fuel industry and not real scientists. More info: http://chaamjamal.blogspot.com/2007/12/reference-realistically-its-too-late.html
  100. 2007: SCIENTISTS SAY THAT SEA LEVELS WILL RISE BY 7 METERS IN 100 YEARS
    Climate scientists say that at the current rate of increase in the use of fossil fuels, the sea level would rise by 7 meters in 100 years and devastate low-lying countries like Bangladesh. When these estimates were challenged and their internal inconsistencies exposed, the IPCC quietly revised the 100-year forecast downward 100-fold from 7 meters to 7 centimeters on their website but the news media alarm about 7 meters continued unabated with “thousands of years” quietly inserted in place of “100 years. More info: http://chaamjamal.blogspot.com/2007/12/reference-melting-greenland-ice-sheet.html
  101. 2007: THE GREENHOUSE EFFECT INFERNO OF VENUS IS EARTH’S FATE 
    Climate scientists say that Venus represents earth’s fate if we don’t reduce greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuels. It is yet another desperate attempt to scare us into going along with their war against fossil fuels. More info: http://chaamjamal.blogspot.com/2007/12/reference-venus-inferno-due-to.html
  102. 2007: INDONESIA: FLOODS, DROUGHTS, LANDSLIDES, AND SEA LEVEL RISE
    Scientists say that an effect of greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuels is that droughts, floods, landslides, and rising sea levels are becoming commonplace in Indonesia. More info: http://chaamjamal.blogspot.com/2007/12/reference-crunch-is-in-mandatory-limits_9192.html
  103. 2007: CLIMATE CHANGE DEVASTATION IN BANGLADESH BY CYCLONE SIDR
    Tropical cyclones over the Bay of Bengal that make landfall in Bangladesh with the severity of Cyclone Sidr or greater are common. The mother of them all was the cyclone of 1970. It killed 550,000 people and the devastation eventually led to the birth of the country we know as Bangladesh. It is not possible to represent these events as evidence that CO2 from rich countries is devastating poor countries. More info: http://chaamjamal.blogspot.com/2007/11/reference-how-equitable-is-climate.html
  104. 2007: INUNDATION, DROUGHT, AND HURRICANES
    The Kiribati and Tuvalu islands are atolls and atolls often sink by subduction. Bangladesh is a delta where its natural dynamics contain sand spit formation and erosion. The Darfur area is semi-arid and prone to droughts. The North Atlantic Basin is an active tropical cyclone area known for occasional severe storms.
    The entire case presented by climate science against greenhouse gases in terms of such fearmongering rests on forecasts that are so far in the future that they can’t be proven wrong. More info: http://chaamjamal.blogspot.com/2007/11/reference-putting-climate-change.html
  105. 2007/2008: THAILAND TEMP LOWER THAN 15C IS A THING OF THE PAST
    The Thailand meteorology department having subscribed headlong into the climate science activism against fossil fuels declared in 2007 that temperatures lower than 15C in Thailand was a thing of the past because of global warming caused by our use of fossil fuels (Rise in average temperatures seen, Bangkok Post, November 3, 2007). The very next year cruel nature gave these scientists temperatures well below the 15C mark. More info: http://chaamjamal.blogspot.com/2008/12/reference-hua-hin-villages-declared.html
  106. 2007/2009: THE MAKING AND RECANTING CYCLE OF TIPPING POINTS
    There is an optimum level of fear at which climate research funding is maximized. The idea that global warming is past the “tipping point” or a point of no return is well beyond that optimum. No research funding for mitigation of global warming will be forthcoming if mitigation is not possible. Yet it is used when traditional fearmongering fails to get the desired attention and then quickly recanted to seek funds for climate action. More info: http://chaamjamal.blogspot.com/2009/03/reference-past-point-of-no-return.html
  107. 2007/2009: POLAR BEARS WILL BE DRIVEN TO EXTINCTION 
    Climate scientists say that the Arctic is on its way to becoming ice free in summer and that therefore the polar bear should be declared an endangered species under the Endangered Species Act and we must act quickly and decisively to cut emissions and turn the climate temperature knob down to where the Polar Bear can survive. More info: http://chaamjamal.blogspot.com/2009/03/reference-latest-threat-to-polar-bear.html
  108. 2007/2009: CLIMATE ACTION SUMMITS HELD TO SCHEDULE THE NEXT ONE
    Tens of thousands of climate scientists flew in from around the world to gather in Bali in 2007 and Poznan in 2008 and they are going to do it again in Copenhagen in 2009, and yet, these thousands of brilliant minds have yet to come up with practical plan of action for mankind to mitigate climate change that is allegedly being caused by human. The elusive nature of this agreement likely derives from a mis-specified and flawed problem statement for mankind neither causes climate change nor has any leverage over nature to mitigate climate change. More info: http://chaamjamal.blogspot.com/2009/03/reference-developing-responsibility.html
  109. 2008: CLIMATE CHANGE TO CAUSE NARGIS-LIKE STORM SURGE IN THAILAND 
    In May 2008 Cyclone Nargis, with unremarkable maximum wind speeds of 100 mph, struck Myanmar and caused a freak storm surge that went up the Irrawaddy River and killed 140,000 people. Climate science was quick to claim Nargis as an impact climate change and reason to fear fossil fuels. This assessment created widespread panic in the region with Myanmar, Thailand, Bangladesh, and India all forecasting and fearing Nargis-like storm surges. In Thailand, the meteorology department had Samut Prakarn area residents in fear for years with repeated forecasts of destruction by Nargis-like storm surges. They never came and those scary forecasts have stopped coming. More info: http://chaamjamal.blogspot.com/2008/12/reference-fear-of-storm-surge-in-samut.html
  110. 2008: POSITIVE FEEDBACK: ARCTIC SEA ICE IN A DOWNWARD SPIRAL
    Our use of fossil fuels is devastating the Arctic where the volume of sea ice “fell to its lowest recorded level to date” this year and that reduced ice coverage is causing a non-linear acceleration in the loss of polar ice because there is less ice to reflect sunlight. More info: http://chaamjamal.blogspot.com/2008/12/reference-poznan-only-marking-time.html
  111. 2008: THE IPCC IS THE WORLD’S MOST RESPECTED SCIENTIFIC AGENCY
    The Bangkok Post declares that the IPCC is the world’s most respected scientific agency and pushes for the success of the Poznan climate talks. More info: http://chaamjamal.blogspot.com/2008/12/reference-greenhouse-gas-talks-falter.html
  112. 2008: THE POZNAN CLIMATE MEETING IS MEDIA FEEDING FRENZY
    More than 10,000 delegates are attending a meeting in Poland of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) from December 1 to the 12th. There has been a flurry of scary press releases saying that human activity is causing the earth to become warmer and that global warming will soon be out of control and that there will be devastating consequences to our use of fossil fuels, all of them based on hypothetical statements that state that if event X occurs then a devastation Y is likely to follow. More info: http://chaamjamal.blogspot.com/2008/12/reference-climate-change-is-quickening.html
  113. 2008: GLACIERS IN ANTARCTICA FLOWING FASTER TO THE SEA
    Mt. Erebus along with most of the mountains in Antarctica are volcanic mountains and it is now known with certainty that volcanic activity under the ice there is causing great amounts of ice to melt and to cause glaciers to flow faster. The attempt by climate scientists to represent these events as climate change phenomena is inconsistent with this reality. More info: http://chaamjamal.blogspot.com/2008/11/reference-glaciers-falling-faster-into.html
  114. 2008: THE ARCTIC WILL BE ICE FREE IN SUMMER IN 2008, 2013, 2030, OR 2100
    The unusually low summer sea ice extent in the Arctic in 2007
    The IPCC has taken note and has revised its projection of an ice free Arctic first from 2008 to 2013 and then again from 2013 to 2030. The way things are going it may be revised again to the year 2100. More info: http://chaamjamal.blogspot.com/2008/10/reference-arctic-to-be-ice-free-due-to.html
  115. 2008: IMMINENT COLLAPSE OF PETERMANN GLACIER IN GREENLAND 
    Climate scientists looking through satellite pictures found a crack in the Petermann glacier in Greenland and concluded that it could speed up sea level rise because huge chunks of ice the size of Manhattan were hemorrhaging off. Yet, scientists who has been travelling to Greenland for years to study glaciers say that the crack in the glacier is normal and not different from other cracks seen in the 1990s. More info: http://chaamjamal.blogspot.com/2008/09/reference-worrisome-cracks-in-ice.html
  116. 2008: MUST REDUCE CARBON FOOTPRINT WITH RENEWABLE ENERGY 
    Promoting the carbon footprint as the overarching environmental issue does more harm than good because it trivializes more important pollution issues and also because some measures taken to reduce the carbon footprint create more environmental problems than they solve. For example, the use of fertilizer to grow renewable energy crops causes an extreme form of water pollution by nitrogen compounds called eutrophication. Environmentalism has gone awry. It’s broke and it need to be fixed: More info: http://chaamjamal.blogspot.com/2008/09/reference-how-green-can-you-get-bangkok.html
  117. 2008: AN ALARMING WARMING TREND IS FOUND IN MOHONK NY
    Temperature data taken very diligently at Mohonk, NY since 1896 show a temperature increase of 16 Centigrade degrees over 112 years, equivalent to 0.14285 Centigrade degrees per year However, an examination of the Mohonk station shows a warming trend of 0.0133C/year, not 0.1428C/year. Over the same period, on average, the temperature at Rochester, NY increased 0.0056 degrees/year, at Albany, NY it decreased 0.00167 degrees/year, and at Maryland, NY it decreased 0.0074 degrees/year. Clearly it is not possible to use data from a single weather station to draw conclusions about temperature trends even in just the state of New York, much less the entire world. More info: http://chaamjamal.blogspot.com/2008/09/reference-weather-history-at-house.html
  118. 2008: THAILAND GRIPPED BY FEAR OF NARGIS STYLE STORM SURGE 
    There has been much speculation in the Thai media recently as to the surge effects on the low-lying coastal mudflats of Samut Prakarn should a storm like Cyclone Nargis form in the Gulf of Thailand due to climate change and rising seas caused by fossil fuel emissions. More info: http://chaamjamal.blogspot.com/2008/09/reference-storm-surge-brunch-magazine.html
  119. 2008: HURRICANE KATRINA IS THE HARBINGER OF WORSE YET TO COME
    The IPCC claimed that it had the scientific evidence to prove that our use of fossil fuels caused Hurricane Katrina to forecast with a great certainty that there was more to come in the 2006 hurricane season but the 2006 hurricane season turned out to be milder than normal. The IPCC blamed the dissipation of El Nino for the mild hurricane season in 2006 and issued a new warning that 2007 will be the hottest year on record and will bring a killer hurricane season worse than 2005 but the 2007 forecast also failed. The IPCC’s dream hurricane season has finally arrived in 2008 unannounced and unexpected with strong hurricanes Gustav and Hanna expected to be followed by Ike and a dozen others before the season is through. More info: http://chaamjamal.blogspot.com/2008/09/reference-busy-storm-season-likely.html
  120. 2008: GLOBAL WARMING IS THE CAUSE OF ALL ICE MELT EVENTS
    When there was a greater focus on Antarctica climate scientists said that global warming was melting the West Antarctic Ice Shelf; but the melting was found to be localized and with an active volcano underneath the melting and the attention of “melt forecast” climate science shifted to Arctic sea ice after the an extensive summer melt was observed in September 2007. More info: http://chaamjamal.blogspot.com/2008/08/reference-arctic-sea-ice-drops.html
  121. 2008: THAILAND PARALYZED BY FEAR OF CLIMATE CHANGE STORM SURGE 
    Climate scientists say that fossil fueled global warming causes extreme weather and then waits for weather events such as Cyclone Nargis that can be called extreme, claims that it was caused by global warming, and the forecasts more of the same in that area. In the very sad case of Thailand, the deadly storm surge of Cyclone Nargis was forecast to become normal for this region and a specific forecast was made that a cyclone would form in the Gulf of Thailand and that it would cause a storm surge that would devastate the province of Samut Prakarn. No such cyclone occurred but the economic and emotional distress caused by these forecasts were probably equally damaging. More info: http://chaamjamal.blogspot.com/2008/08/reference-fear-of-storm-surge-in-samut.html
  122. 2008: THAILAND HOT SEASON WILL BE SOONER & HOTTER 
    Climate science predicted that in 2008 man-made climate change would cause the hot season in Thailand to arrive earlier than usual and to be so much hotter that parts of the country would experience heavy rains and floods while other parts will be hit by a severe drought (A hot summer expected to arrive early this year, Bangkok Post, February 3, 2008). None of this occurred. Tt was a normal year weather-wise. More info: http://chaamjamal.blogspot.com/2008/08/reference-hot-summer-expected-to-arrive.html
  123. 2008: BOOK: THE GREAT WARMING, BY BRIAN FAGAN
    The book “The Great Warming” by Brian Fagan says that the climate is not at the mercy of man but that man is at the mercy of the climate. It is natural for climate to change. All we can hope to do is to adapt to the changes when they occur. More info: http://chaamjamal.blogspot.com/2008/08/reference-climate-change-been-there.html
  124. 2008: THE HUMAN COST OF ECO EXTREMISM
    Environmental extremism is not benign but rather poses a serious risk to us all that in the long run is more dangerous than terrorism. Malaria, dengue, and other mosquito borne diseases, that had been all but eradicated by DDT, have been able to make a come-back because of a ban on DDT in the hysterical aftermath of the book “Silent Spring”. The lifting of the ban by the WHO in 2006 is a tacit admission that the worldwide ban on DDT was a mistake that had cost humanity millions of lives. More info: http://chaamjamal.blogspot.com/2008/08/reference-wage-war-on-health-menace.html
  125. 2008: BANGKOK IS BEING INUNDATED BY SEA LEVEL RISE 
    The city of Bangkok is sinking due to subsidence. This is a real problem and its real causes must be addressed for a solution. It is cruel opportunism for climate scientists to use this tragedy to sell their man-made global warming agenda. More info: http://chaamjamal.blogspot.com/2008/07/reference-great-flood-bangkok-post-july.html
  126. 2008: ASIA HIT HARD BY CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS
    Climate scientists say that man-made global warming has caused a rise in the sea level and an increase in the frequency and intensity of natural disasters in Asia. They cite the recent cyclone in Burma, a typhoon in the Philippines, and the earthquake in China. It is implied that these events could hav e been avoided or moderated had we not used fossil fuels. More info: http://chaamjamal.blogspot.com/2008/07/reference-world-bank-says-asian-cities.html
  127. 2008: CLIMATE SCIENCE VERSUS THE G8 MEETING OF 2008 (G8=G7+RUSSIA)
    Climate activists at the G* meeting wanted the G8 to make a “commitment” to a specified greenhouse gas reduction by 2020. They were denied. Then they asked the G8 to “seriously consider” a reduction by 2020. They were denied. So finally they wanted the G8 to issue a statement of a “shared vision” for climate change for 2020. They were denied. Finally, they begged for and received a “shared vision” statement for 2050. More info: http://chaamjamal.blogspot.com/2008/07/reference-g8-climate-statement-pathetic.html
  128. 2008: SEA LEVEL RISE INUNDATES ATOLL AND CREATES CLIMATE REFUGEES
    Climate scientists say that man-made global warming has caused a rise in the sea level sufficient to inundate an atoll in Kiribati, a chain of 33 such islands, and created climate refugees. More info: http://chaamjamal.blogspot.com/2008/06/reference-atoll-leader-asks-australia.html
  129. 2008: THE POLAR BEAR IS THREATENED BY OUR USE OF FOSSIL FUELS
    The survival of the polar bear is threatened because man made global warming is melting ice in the Arctic. It is true that the Arctic sea ice extent was down in negative territory in September 2007. This event emboldened global warming scaremongers to declare it a climate change disaster caused by greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuels and to issue a series of scenarios about environmental holocaust yet to come. More info: http://chaamjamal.blogspot.com/2008/06/reference-polar-bear-numbers-set-to.html
  130. 2008: ADELIE PENGUINS IN ANTARCTICA ARE THREATENED 
    Climate scientists have determined that Adelie penguins in Antarctica are threatened because climate change is melting Antarctic glaciers although it is not clear whether the melting is caused by volcanic activity underneath the ice. More info: http://chaamjamal.blogspot.com/2008/05/reference-antarctic-melt-poisoning.html
  131. 2008: THE FIRE BELOW: VOLCANIC ACTIVITY MELTING ICE IN ANTARCTICA
    A volcano under the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, that last erupted 2000 years ago, is now active and responsible for melting ice and for retreating glaciers in that part of the continent (The fire below, Bangkok Post, April 28, 2008). Yet, climate scientists claim that these changes are man-made and that they are caused by carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels as predicted by their computer model of the earth’s climate. More info: http://chaamjamal.blogspot.com/2008/04/reference-fire-below-bangkok-post-april.html
  132. 2008: ABOUT THE PHRASE “CARBON FOOTPRINT” AND THE WORD “COULD” 
    Regardless of the fact that none of our extreme weather predictions have come true and that 2007 was not the hottest year on record, and that Antarctica is not melting like we said, please consider for a moment the devastating tragedy that could befall us if the earth did warm by an extreme amount although we can’t support that by the actual but boring data. More info: http://chaamjamal.blogspot.com/2008/04/global-warming-all-of-scary-forecasts.html
  133. 2008: THE PHRASE OCEAN ACIDIFICATION ENTERS THE CLIMATE LEXICON
    Climate scientists say that carbon dioxide from human activity involving the use of fossil fuels is absorbed into the ocean where it forms carbonic acid and causes environmental devastation by killing shellfish and coral. More info: http://chaamjamal.blogspot.com/2008/03/reference-human-shadows-haunt-seas.html
  134. 2008: GLOBAL WARMING WILL DEVASTATE CROP YIELDS & CAUSE FAMINES
    Global warming scientists used a computer climate model to determine that by the year 2030 yields of critical crops will fall sufficiently in southern Africa and in South Asia to cause famine. The good news is that this catastrophe can be avoided by giving up fossil fuels and using renewable energy. More info: http://chaamjamal.blogspot.com/2008/02/reference-inconvenient-truth-bangkok.html
  135. 2008: GLOBAL WARMING IS KILLING OFF THE ADELIE PENGUINS 
    The population of Adelie Penguins in the northern reaches of the Peninsula has declined in recent decades but this decline has been more than offset by robust growth in other areas of Antarctica and other species of penguins are thriving in the Peninsula. The mix of penguin species in Antarctica has never been stable and has undergone dramatic changes over millennia. More info: http://chaamjamal.blogspot.com/2008/02/reference-last-march-bangkok-post.html
  136. 2008CLIMATE CHANGE IS CAUSING MASS EXTINCTIONS OF SPECIES
    Climate change is causing mass extinctions of species and is expected to devastate the biodiversity of the although in prior epochs of climate change the data in the fossil record show that climate change causes not a net reduction in the number of species but an explosion in the number of species. More info: http://chaamjamal.blogspot.com/2008/01/reference-plants-or-animals-begin-to.html
  137. 2008THE IPCC AR4 REPORT SELLS FEARS THAT HAVE BEEN PROVEN FALSE
    The summer melt of the Arctic ice is not unprecedented, extreme weather events have not become more frequent or more severe, and atolls in the South Pacific are not sinking under rising sea levels. The IPCC’s claim that Hurricane Katrina was caused by man-made global warming has been thoroughly discredited and their forecasts for more severe hurricane seasons in 2006 and 2007 have been proven wrong. They are merchants of fear and their method is the dissemination of convenient lies. More info: http://chaamjamal.blogspot.com/2007/12/reference-inconvenient-query-wholl-pay.html
  138. 2009: CATASTROPHIC WARMING OVER THE WHOLE OF ANTARCTICA
    Temperature data 1957-2008 show that the whole of Antarctica including Western Antarctica, the Antarctic Peninsula, and Eastern Antarctica, is warming due to CO2 emissions from fossil fuels. More info: http://chaamjamal.blogspot.com/2009/01/reference-global-warming-hitting-all-of.html
  139. 2009: SOUTHEAST ASIA HIT WITH SEA LEVEL RISE 
    It is reported that “Southeast Asia is facing problems from rising sea levels that bring more frequent flooding in coastal zones and river basins” (Thai firms not ready for climate change, Bangkok Post, January 22, 2009). It is noteworthy that none of these flooding events has been reported in the media. More info: http://chaamjamal.blogspot.com/2009/01/reference-thai-firms-not-ready-for.html
  140. 2009: SEA LEVEL RISE CAUSING COASTAL EROSION IN PHUKET, THAILAND
    It is reported that an increase in coastal erosion observed this year in Phuket, Thailand, is due to rising sea levels caused by man-made global warming. Phuket is on the Andaman side of the isthmus of Thailand. Nearby is the Koh-Tapao sea level measuring station monitored by the University of Hawaii sea level database. The time series of these data from 1996 to 2008 do not show any trend. More info: http://chaamjamal.blogspot.com/2009/01/reference-coastline-lost-to-rising-seas.html
  141. 2009: OUR USE OF FOSSIL FUELS IS CAUSING GREENLAND GLACIERS TO MELT
    Man-made global warming is causing Greenland’s glaciers to melt at an alarming rate. By the year 2100 all the ice there will have melted causing a calamitous rise in the sea level that will inundate Bangladesh, the Maldives, Bangkok, New Orleans, and atolls in the Pacific. More info: http://chaamjamal.blogspot.com/2009/01/reference-greenland-meltoff-not-so-fast.html
  142. 2009: CLIMATE CHANGE WILL DRIVE SKI SLOPES TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS
    In 25 to 50 years global warming will have a measurable impact on ski slopes by melting snow at lower altitudes and forcing skiers to move uphill. Climate scientists appear to be more comfortable with forecasts with a time horizon long enough so that they cannot be proven wrong in their lifetime. More info: http://chaamjamal.blogspot.com/2009/01/reference-climate-change-forces-skiers.html
  143. 2009: THE TUATARA REPTILE IS THREATENED BY CLIMATE CHANGE
    The tuatara reptile is one of a many species identified by climate scientists as being threatened by global warming caused by our use of fossil fuels. It is part of an overall theory that climate change threatens biodiversity because it will reduce the number of species by causing some of them to become extinct. More info: http://chaamjamal.blogspot.com/2009/01/reference-condemned-to-single-sex-life.html
  144. 2009: CLIMATE ACTION, CARBON CREDITS, & THE CARBON TRADING SCHEME
    The carbon trading scheme allows rich countries to buy carbon credits from poor countries in a contract that prevents the poor country from pursuing development projects that would increase CO2 emissions or decrease CO2 removal by photosynthesis. The international carbon trading scheme allows rich countries to trade these contracts among themselves. More info: http://chaamjamal.blogspot.com/2009/03/reference-thai-carbon-sellers-need-to.html
  145. 2009: STATEMENT BY WILLIAM HAPPER, PRINCETON UNIVERSITY.
    The current warming period began about 1800 at the end of the little ice age, long before there was an appreciable increase of CO2. There have been similar and even larger warmings several times in the 10,000 years since the end of the last ice age. These earlier warmings clearly had nothing to do with the combustion of fossil fuels. More Info: http://chaamjamal.blogspot.com/2009/03/excerpts-from-statement-to-u_02.html
  146. 2009: CLIMATE CHANGE WILL TURN EUROPE INTO A DESERT BY 2040
    James Lovelock, of Gaia fame who rose to prominence as a guru of environmentalism in the 1960s, says that by the year 2040 carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels will turn Europe into a desert and that by the year 2100 the entire planet will be dead. More info: http://chaamjamal.blogspot.com/2009/02/reference-warming-to-wipe-out-most-life.html
  147. 2009: MELTING OF ANTARCTICA MORE SEVERE THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT
    Climate scientists say that the melting of Antarctica is more severe than “previously thought” because the melt is not limited to the Antarctic Peninsula but extends to West Antarctica as well. More info: http://chaamjamal.blogspot.com/2009/02/reference-melt-in-antarctica-much.html
  148. 2009: MARRIAGE, DIVORCE, AND CLIMATE CHANGE
    Australian authorities are urging married people not to divorce because living separate lives would increase their carbon footprint and exacerbate global warming. More info: http://chaamjamal.blogspot.com/2009/02/reference-divorce-hits-climate-babgkok.html
  149. 2009: CIRCULAR REASONING IN CLIMATE SCIENCE
    Hypothesis must be tested by a different set of data than that used to develop them, for otherwise one falls prey to circular reasoning. The climate model of the IPCC contains this very fundamental scientific flaw because there is only one history. The historical climate data that are used to develop the model and its empirical parameters are the same data that are used to validate the model. More info: http://chaamjamal.blogspot.com/2009/02/reference-when-figures-dont-add-up.html
  150. 2009COLLAPSE OF THE WEST ANTARCTIC ICE SHELF
    New data show that the West Antarctic ice shelf collapses every 40,000 years or so and that this cyclical process has been regular feature of this ice shelf for millions of years (Antarctica ice collapses were regular, Bangkok Post, March 19, 2009). These melting episodes can raise the sea level by as much as 5 meters but the process takes a thousand years or more. More info: http://chaamjamal.blogspot.com/2009/03/reference-antarctica-ice-collapses-were.html
  151. 2009: SEA LEVEL RISE DUE TO GLOBAL WARMING IS FLOODING BANGKOK
    Bangkok is sinking at about 2 or 3 cm per year and this phenomenon is blamed for the increasing severity of floods that occur when a rain swollen Chao Phraya River coincides with unusually high tides. These flooding incidents cannot be related to global warming or sea level rise. More info: http://chaamjamal.blogspot.com/2009/03/reference-bangkok-seeks-dutch-help-to.html
  152. 2009: PALM OIL BIODIESEL BOOM IN ASIA: ENVIRONMENTAL CATASTROPHE
    A new biofuels plant in Singapore is to make bio-diesel from palm oil and sell the product to Europeans at around $900 per ton at a time when real diesel is available at $600 per ton. The reason for targeting the European market is that there is a greater likelihood of finding a high degree of gullible environmentalism that might motivate consumers there to pay more for diesel if they get can a warm and fuzzy feeling of having done something good for the environment. The reality of course is dramatically different here in Asia where the rapid growth in palm oil plantations has been called an environmental disaster. More info: http://chaamjamal.blogspot.com/2009/03/reference-singapore-made-biofuels-to.html
  153. 2009: LCGM = LOW CARBON GROWTH MODEL
    Non-Annex developing countries like Thailand have no emission reduction obligation under the Kyoto Protocol and UNFCC Convention but ever since ceding that rational advantage to the poor countries, they have been working overtime to find a way around it using acronyms for each scheme as a way of making it seem important. The 2009 version of this effort is the “low carbon growth model” (LCGM). The bottom line is that developing countries must reduce emissions to save the earth from climate change catastrophe. More info: http://chaamjamal.blogspot.com/2009/03/reference-low-carbon-growth-is-model-to.html
  154. 2009: THE WILKINS ICE SHELF IS COLLAPSING
    Climate scientists say that the Wilkins Ice Shelf collapse is caused by warming of the Antarctic Peninsula due to man-made “global climate change”. More info: http://chaamjamal.blogspot.com/2009/04/reference-warming-blamed-for-collapse.html
  155. 2009: WE ARE APPROACHING THE ABYSS OF CLIMATE CHANGE
    Between 2005 and 2007 the UN repeatedly declares that we have passed the tipping point and that it is “already too late to late. The planet is doomed. But in 2009, Ban Ki Moon contradicts his staff and describes the effect of carbon dioxide emissions on climate as “our foot is stuck on the accelerator and we are heading towards an abyss”. That we are not at the abyss yet and there is till time to act. More info: http://chaamjamal.blogspot.com/2009/09/reference-action-needed-to-avoid-abyss.html
  156. 2009: SEVERE DROUGHT IN SOUTHEAST AUSTRALIA
    Southeast Australia is a semi-arid drought prone area with a history of severe droughts during which its primary river system can go bone dry. The current drought there is part of this weather pattern. More info: http://chaamjamal.blogspot.com/2009/08/reference-mississippi-down-under.html
  157. 2009: SEVERE DROUGHT IN NORTHERN CHINA
    Our use of fossil fuels has, through global warming, caused a prolonged drought and severe aridity in northern China and the appropriate response for us is to take climate action and cut emissions. More info: http://chaamjamal.blogspot.com/2009/08/reference-water-crisis-in-parched.html
  158. 2009: SEA LEVEL RISE OF SEVERAL METERS BY 2100
    After sustained criticism from skeptics, climate scientists have revised their forecast for the rise in sea levels by the year 2100 from 5 meters to 38 cm. In releasing the rather innocuous new figure the scientists had to try extra hard to maintain the fear level saying that the lower figure does not mean we are safe and that things could turn out to be much worse. More info: http://chaamjamal.blogspot.com/2009/07/reference-study-confirms-rising-sea.html
  159. 2009: SETTLED SCIENCE CANNOT BE PROVEN WRONG
    Rapid advance of a glacier in Argentina that was supposed to retreat is explained by climate scientists as an anomaly. “We are not sure why this happens. But not all glaciers respond equally to climate change” In other words, they don’t take data to test the hypothesis because their hypothesis is correct by definition. They take data to test the data. If the data support their theory the data are deemed to be good. Otherwise the data are deemed spurious and additional theories are needed to explain how these observations could occur in the age of global warming. In this kind of science, the man-made global warming hypothesis cannot be proven wrong by the data. More info: http://chaamjamal.blogspot.com/2009/07/reference-argentinian-glacier-defies.html
  160. 2009: IMPACTS ON RICH COUNTRIES REVEALED AHEAD OF COPENHAGEN
    Climate scientists say that the excessive emphasis on the impact of global warming on poor countries was a mistake and that they need to find new ways to bring the horror of global warming home to the citizens of the rich countries in order to ensure the passage of the post Kyoto AGW mitigation measures they will present in Copenhagen. More info: http://chaamjamal.blogspot.com/2009/06/reference-its-going-to-be-hot-wet-and.html
  161. 2009: CLIMATE SCIENTISTS STUDY INTENSITY OF CRASHING WAVES
    Climate scientists were sure they could prove that global warming is increasing the frequency and severity of extreme weather but with nothing but Katrina to go on, they have turned to studying crashing hoping to scare us with increasing wave intensity as evidence of extreme weather. More info: http://chaamjamal.blogspot.com/2009/06/reference-global-warming-now-audible.html
  162. 2009: CLIMATE CHAOS IN THE AMAZON BASIN 
    In 2005 the Amazon Basin was suffering from drought conditions and this year it was deluged under a devastating flood. The rapid succession of drought and flood is described by climate science as “climate chaos”. They have determined that it was caused by global warming driven by fossil fuel emissions. More info: http://chaamjamal.blogspot.com/2009/05/reference-amazon-hit-by-chaos-bangkok.html
  163. 2009: GLOBAL WARMING CAUSES MALARIA EPIDEMICS
    The effort by epidemiologists to pin a malaria outbreak on global warming is quite possibly not unbiased scientific inquiry but rather an effort to fudge the data and the methodology until the findings meet the expectations and the utility of the global warming community and thereby facilitate further funding. More info: http://chaamjamal.blogspot.com/2009/05/reference-climate-of-disease-bangkok.html
  164. 2009: CATASTROPHIC ICE MELT NEEDS TREATY AT COPENHAGEN
    Carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels have caused the following alarming changes to our planet: (1) ice covering the Arctic Ocean shrank in 2007 to its smallest since satellite records began, (2) In Antarctica, a section of the Wilkins Ice Shelf has broken up in recent days, (3) glaciers in the Himalayan mountains are shrinking and threatening to disrupt water supplies to hundreds of millions of people, (4) melting permafrost in Siberia will release large quantities of methane into the atmosphere and hasten global warming, and (5) if all of the land based ice in Antarctica melted it would raise the sea level by 80 meters. More info: http://chaamjamal.blogspot.com/2009/04/reference-melting-ice-to-spur-new.html
  165. 2009: THE ADB SELLING “ECONOMICS OF CLIMATE CHANGE”
    The Asian Development Bank issues a report on “the economics of climate change in Southeast Asia” – patterned after its mother report, “The economics of climate change” by Nicholas Stern and funded by the British. It tries to trick SE Asian non-Annex countries with no UNFCCC climate action obligation to take climate action with the fear of consequences if they don’t. More info: http://chaamjamal.blogspot.com/2009/04/reference-waking-up-to-climate-change.html
  166. 2009: GLOBAL WARMING = REGIONAL WARMING IN SE ASIA
    Although climate science presents climate change as a global issue with global emissions changing global language, the ADB tries to trick SE Asian non-Annex countries into climate action with a report that implies that climate change in SE Asia is responsive to emissions from SE Asia and if no action is taken climate change will lead to decreasing rainfall and millions will suffer from water shortages”; “Rice production will decline threatening food security”; “Forests will turn into scrub land”; “Floods, droughts, cyclones, and other extreme weather events will become common”; “Deaths from cardiovascular and respiratory disease, malaria, and dengue fever will increase”; “Sea levels will rise by 70 cm or more inundating entire islands and low lying areas”; and the biggest lie of all, “All of these dangers may be mitigated by reducing CO2 emissions from fossil fuels”. More info: http://chaamjamal.blogspot.com/2009/04/reference-there-are-lies-damn-lies-and.html
  167. 2009: CLIMATE CHANGE WILL KILL OFF THE WORLD’S CORAL REEFS
    Our carbon dioxide emissions are wreaking havoc on the world’s coral reefs according to climate scientists. Sadly, the obsession with carbon dioxide has done more harm to the environment and to coral reefs than good by belittling and hiding real pollution issues. More info: http://chaamjamal.blogspot.com/2009/04/reference-expensive-and-labor-intensive.html
  168. 2009: CLIMATE SCIENTISTS INVENT THE PHRASE “RAPID SEA LEVEL RISE”
    Climate scientists say that climate action has become urgent because of the possibility of rapid sea level rise. We are urged to reduce “greenhouse gas emissions” from fossil fuels because in prior interglacial periods the sea level had risen by as much as 3 meters in 100 years and so we should expect it do so again in the interglacial period in which we now live. More info: http://chaamjamal.blogspot.com/2009/04/reference-rapid-sea-level-rise.html
  169. 2009: BANGLADESH BEING INUNDATED BY RAPID SEA LEVEL RISE
    The oft repeated claim that Bangladesh is being inundated by rising sea levels caused by man-made climate change ignores the relevant data that the total land mass of the country is not decreasing. In fact, the total land mass of Bangladesh is increasing just as it always has by virtue of silt deposition. More info: http://chaamjamal.blogspot.com/2009/04/reference-taming-waters-of-bangladesh.html
  170. 2009: THE WORD “ABYSS” IS USED TO SELL FEAR OF CLIMATE CHANGE
    Ban Ki Moon says that we are approaching the abyss and if Copenhagen fails we will soon find ourselves at the abyss – and suddenly everything that any UN bureaucrat says about climate change contains the word abyss. A new climate buzzword has thus been invented to hype the Copenhagen climate summit which incidentally failed miserably just as the rest of them have, all funded by taxpayers. More info: http://chaamjamal.blogspot.com/2009/09/reference-edge-back-from-abyss-bangkok.html
  171. 2009: COPENHAGEN IS OUR LAST CHANCE. IF WE FAIL, THE PLANET IS TOAST
    Ban Ki-Moon says that he went to the Arctic Ocean and was horrified to see the remains of a glacier that just a few years ago was a majestic mass of ice and that had just collapsed – not slowly melted – just collapsed. He thereby became convinced that the only resolution for the “climate crisis” is a binding emission reduction agreement at the Copenhagen meeting in December 2009: More info: http://chaamjamal.blogspot.com/2009/09/reference-why-copenhagen-talks-offer-us.html
  172. 2009: ITALY WILL USE ITS VETO POWER TO BLOCK COPENHAGEN
    Citing the high cost of the EU carbon emission reduction plan ill timed to coincide with a long and painful global recession, Italian premier Silvio Berlusconi announced that Italy will not comply and moreover that he intends to use Italy’s veto power to block the measure. More info: http://chaamjamal.blogspot.com/2009/09/reference-brussels-not-amused-by.html
  173. 2009: SUMMER ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT IN 2009 THE 3RD LOWEST ON RECORD
    The second lowest was 2008 and the first lowest was 2007. This is not a trend that shows that things are getting worse. It shows that things are getting better and yet it is being sold and being bought as evidence that things are getting worse due to rising fossil fuel emissions. More info: http://chaamjamal.blogspot.com/2009/09/reference-arctic-sea-ice-pack-at-record.html
  174. 2009: USE OF FOSSIL FUELS CAUSING GREENLAND’S GLACIERS TO MELT
    In 2005 two glaciers in Greenland were found to be moving faster than they were in 2001. Scientists concluded from these data that the difference observed was a a long term trend of glacial melt in Greenland and that carbon dioxide was the cause of this trend. The assumed trend was then extrapolated forward and we were told that carbon dioxide would cause the land based ice mass of Greenland to be discharged to the sea and raise the sea level by six meters. They said that the only way out of the devastation was to drastically reduce carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels. However, in 2009, just before a meeting in Copenhagen where these deep cuts in emissions were to be negotiated, it was found that the glaciers had returned to their normal rate of discharge. More info: http://chaamjamal.blogspot.com/2009/09/reference-effect-of-carbon-dioxide.html
  175. 2009: HOW TO FIGHT CLIMATE CHANGE BY RATIONING ENERGY
    The Institute for Public Policy Research in the UK proposes to fight climate change by rationing energy. The program would include gasoline, natural gas, heating oil, electricity, diesel, and even airline tickets and holidays. Each person or household will be issued ration cards for a prescribed amount of energy each month and when the that amount has been consumed, excess consumption will be possible only by purchasing carbon credits. More info: http://chaamjamal.blogspot.com/2009/09/reference-plan-to-issue-ration-cards.html
  176. 2009: GLOBAL WARMING IS MELTING HIMALAYAN GLACIERS
    It is claimed that carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels are causing Himalayan glaciers to melt and thereby to threaten devastation but the available data do not support this conclusion. More info: http://chaamjamal.blogspot.com/2009/09/reference-himalayan-nations-first.html
    2009: CHINA’S GROWTH COULD OVERWHELM THE PLANET’S RESOURCES
    The old Club of Rome argument that “we can’t all live like white people because that would overwhelm the planet” is now made with climate change as the rationale. More info: http://chaamjamal.blogspot.com/2009/09/reference-chinas-growth-could-exceed.html
  177. 2009: CLEAN DEVELOPMENT MECHANSIM + THE CARBON OFFSET SCHEME
    The CDM (clean development mechanism) and the carbon offset scheme offers the rich industrialized West to fight climate change simply by buying carbon offsets from poor countries, in effect, paying poor to stay poor so that the rich can stay rich by buying the right to their continued use of fossil fuels. More info: http://chaamjamal.blogspot.com/2009/09/reference-cleaning-up-our-act-bangkok.html
  178. 2009: THREATENED POLAR BEARS “STARE AT THE MELTING POINT”
    Global warming caused by our use of fossil fuels is driving polar bears to extinction and threatening the livelihood of the people of Nunavut. More info: http://chaamjamal.blogspot.com/2009/10/reference-staring-at-melting-point.html
  179. 2009: FOSSIL FUELED SEA LEVEL RISE IS INUNDATING SHANGHAI, CHINA
    Climate scientists say that sea level rise due to man-made global warming is causing Shanghai to be inundated with sea water. The truth is that the inundation problem in Shanghai was first noted and measured by geologists back in 1921 when atmospheric carbon dioxide was below 300 ppm. The problem is attributed to subsidence caused by the removal of ground water and the weight of the buildings in the downtown area of the city. The subsidence continues to this day and it is estimated that Shanghai is sinking at an annual rate of about one cm per year. More info: http://chaamjamal.blogspot.com/2009/10/reference-rising-cities-threaten.html
  180. 2009: BANGLADESH HIT WITH CYCLONES AND CLIMATE REFUGEES
    Bangladeshis displaced by Cyclone Sidr in 2007 are “climate refugees” because they have been rendered homeless by a climate change event that was caused by carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels and it suggests that cyclones like Sidr will continue to ravage this poverty stricken nation unless we forge a plan in Copenhagen and do away with fossil fuels. More info: http://chaamjamal.blogspot.com/2009/10/reference-climate-refugees-add-strain.html
  181. 2009: THE ARCTIC WILL BE ICE FREE IN SUMMER BY 2029
    An alarm is raised that the extreme summer melt of Arctic sea ice in 2007 was caused by humans using fossil fuels and it portends that in 20 years human caused global warming will leave the Arctic Ocean ice-free in the summer raising sea levels and harming wildlife. More info: http://chaamjamal.blogspot.com/2009/10/reference-arctic-will-be-ice-free-in-20.html
  182. 2009: SEA LEVEL RISE SINKING SOUTH PACIFIC ATOLLS 
    Our use of fossil fuels causes global warming. Global warming causes sea level rise. Sea level rise causes South Pacific atolls to become inundated. The inundation of these islands creates climate refugees. More info: http://chaamjamal.blogspot.com/2009/10/worlds-first-climate-refugees-age-july.html
  183. 2009: VOLCANOES & CLIMATE CHANGE: POSITIVE FEEDBACK
    A positive feedback loop from hell that could cause explosive climate change is described between volcanic activity and climate change with each pushing the other forward. More info: http://chaamjamal.blogspot.com/2009/10/reference-volcanoes-stirred-by-climate.html
  184. 2009: WARMING OCEANS MELT GREENLAND GLACIERS
    Some glaciers on north and northeast Greenland terminate in fiords with long glacier tongues that extend into the sea. It is found that the warming of the oceans caused by our use of fossil fuels is melting these tongues and raising the specter of devastation by sea level rise. More info: http://chaamjamal.blogspot.com/2009/10/reference-warming-ocean-melts-greenland.html
  185. 2009: THE ARCTIC WILL BE ICE FREE IN SUMMER BY THE YEAR 2012
    Climate scientists continue to extrapolate the extreme summer melt of Arctic sea ice in 2007 to claim that the summer melt of 2007 was a climate change event and that it implies that the Arctic will be ice free in the summer from 2012 onwards. This is a devastating effect on the planet and our use of fossil fuels is to blame. More info: http://chaamjamal.blogspot.com/2009/10/reference-effects-of-arctic-warming.html
  186. 2009: OUR USE OF FOSSIL FUELS IS MELTING ICE ON KILIMANJARO
    This old Gore hypothesis is endorsed by climate science but ss it turns out, the loss of ice interpreted here was due to aridity and not warming; the process is sublimation not melting; and it started at least as early as 1912 when atmospheric CO2 was below 300 ppm. Furthermore, the ice appears to have stabilized and the various projections of its demise by 2016, 2020, or 2030 have all been withdrawn. More info: http://chaamjamal.blogspot.com/2009/10/reference-thermostatic-time-bomb.html
  187. 2009: TYPHOON KETSANA WAS A WARNING FROM NATURE
    Typhoon Ketsana devastated the Philippines in 2009 and it was a high profile news item so naturally it was adopted by the United Nations climate meeting in Bangkok to sell their war against fossil fuels. More info: http://chaamjamal.blogspot.com/2009/10/reference-nature-warns-climate-talkers.html
  188. 2009: SEA LEVEL RISE IS INUNDATING SAMUT PRAKAN, THAILAND
    Encroachment by sea water in the Bangkok Groundwater Area, that includes Samut Prakan, is a well known effect of land subsidence caused by ground water extraction unrelated to carbon dioxide emissions, global warming, or climate change. More info: http://chaamjamal.blogspot.com/2009/12/reference-what-and-where-is-our-climate.html
  189. 2009: GLOBAL WARMING IS MELTING THE HIMALAYAN GLACIERS
    Himalayan ice is rapidly vanishing because of human caused global warming and will be gone by 2035. The great rivers of Asia that are originate there will shrivel and die and cease to provide water to a quarter of humanity. More info: http://chaamjamal.blogspot.com/2009/12/reference-giant-climate-fraud-in.html
  190. 2009: THE RICH COUNTRY POOR COUNTRY PUZZLE IN CLIMATE ACTION
    There are too many people in poor countries. They can’t all live like white people because that would overload the planet with too much carbon dioxide. So please keep the status quo and we will take care of you with billions of Euros of aid should global warming’s devastation strike. More info: http://chaamjamal.blogspot.com/2009/12/reference-low-carbon-is-economy-of.html
  191. 2009: THE SUMMER SEA ICE EXTENT IN THE ARCTIC WILL BE GONE
    Summer melt of Arctic ice was the third most extensive on record in 2009, second 2008, and the most extensive in 2007. These data show that warming due to our carbon dioxide emissions are causing summer Arctic ice to gradually diminish until it will be gone altogether. More info: http://chaamjamal.blogspot.com/2009/12/reference-warming-trend-is-clear.html
  192. 2009: FAILURE AT COPENHAGEN WILL DRIVE SPECIES TO EXTINCTION.
    It would be a sad chapter in human history if we commit economic suicide Jim Jones style in the vain and Quixotic belief that we are in control of the planet’s climate. The human race with all its knowledge and technology, is insignificant on a planetary scale. On what basis do we expect to be able to stabilize nature? We appear to be in the grip of some kind of mass insanity. More info: http://chaamjamal.blogspot.com/2009/12/reference-editorial-to-world-urges.html
  193. 2009: SOUTH ASIA IS TOAST: MONSOON CHAOS WILL CAUSE CROP FAILURE
    In 2007, 2008, and 2009 climate science issued the dire warning that global warming caused by our fossil fuel emissions is weakening and destabilizing the annual South Asian monsoon weather pattern. Monsoons in South Asia will be weakened and delayed. The results will be devastating and will include drought, crop failure, and widespread hunger. These dire forecasts were finally withdrawn in 2010 when they were proven false. http://chaamjamal.blogspot.com/2010/04/reference-forecasters-predict-good.html
  194. 2009: WARMEST EUROPEAN WINTER ON RECORD IN 2000 IS THE PROOF
    In the unusually cold winter of the year 2009, declared an anomaly and a case of natural variability, climate scientists evaluated the unusually warm winter nine of 2000 not as natural variability nor as an anomaly but as absolute proof of the theory of global warming by way of fossil fuel emissions: More info: http://chaamjamal.blogspot.com/2009/12/reference-running-out-of-time-bangkok.html
  195. 2009: WHEAT CROP FAILURE IN CHINA CAUSED BY CLIMATE CHANGE
    The article pretends to describe wheat production in all of China but cites only the failure of a new venture to grow wheat in semi-desert Gansu Province with where one finds large desert areas and where the only economic activity had been mining. It is true that the experimental wheat farms had rough years in the beginning but by 2017 the experiment had borne fruit with about 3000 hectares under cultivation. Wheat production is booming in the main wheat producing provinces of Heilongjiang, Henan, and Hebei. The implication of the article that wheat production in China has been adversely affected by fossil fueled global warming is inconsistent with the data. More info: http://chaamjamal.blogspot.com/2009/12/reference-chinese-farmers-struggle-with.html
  196. 2009: FAILURE AT COPENHAGEN PITS POOR COUNTRIES AGAINST RICH.
    The Copenhagen climate summit was advertised by the UN and by climate scientists as a “do or die” watershed event for the global warming movement. Its spectacular failure threw the movement into a chaotic war between rich and poor with the poor developing countries accusing the rich industrialized countries of having been the perpetrators of climate change and demanding compensation. More info: http://chaamjamal.blogspot.com/2009/12/copenhagen-copenhagen-meeting.html
  197. 2009: DESTRUCTION ON A GLOBAL SCALE WITH SUPERSTORMS
    In 2005 climate science had latched on to Hurricane Katrina as the harbinger of killer hurricane super storms created by fossil fueled global warming but after no further cyclone activity in the North Atlantic Basin in the next three years, they were rewarded with Cyclone Nargis in the Indian Basin. Though not unusually strong, Nargis did create a freak storm surge in rising tides that swept up the Irrawaddy River in Burma and claimed a horrific death toll. Nargis thus became the biggest news story in Asia. Climate scientists quickly changed their focus from the North Atlantic Basin to the Indian Basin and claimed Cyclone Nargis as a creation of climate change caused by fossil fuel emissions and as the harbinger of “destruction on a global scale” by human caused global warming. More info: http://chaamjamal.blogspot.com/2009/12/reference-destruction-on-global-level_18.html
  198. 2009: DESTRUCTION ON A GLOBAL SCALE WITH SEA LEVEL RISE
    Bangladesh is a low lying delta where the Ganges, the Brahmaputra, and other Indian rivers drain. Over the last few decades an explosive growth of shrimp farming along the coast and construction of irrigation dams upstream in India has caused coastal salinity to move further upstream causing considerable harm to agriculture. This tragedy is now claimed by climate science as an impact of fossil fueled global warming by way of rising seas. Yet, if rising seas were the cause of the salinity problem, the land area of Bangladesh would be shrinking – but it is growing. More info: http://chaamjamal.blogspot.com/2009/12/reference-destruction-on-global-level.html
  199. 2009: RAPID ECONOMIC GROWTH IN SE ASIA WILL CAUSE EXTREME WEATHER IN SE ASIA
    Global warming theory is strictly in global terms and yet it is often interpreted in regional terms as in this case where typhoons in Vietnam are interpreted in terms of SE Asian emissions. More info: http://chaamjamal.blogspot.com/2009/12/reference-climate-changes-dealmaker.html
  200. 2009: THE MEKONG IS TOAST
    The Mekong River is drying up because there is not enough snow in the Himalayas. This tragic situation was created with fossil fuel emissions that cause global warming and climate change. It can be solved by cutting fossil fuel emissions and restoring the Himalayas to their former pristine and unchanging condition. http://chaamjamal.blogspot.com/2010/04/reference-non-water-flushing-bangkok.html
  201. 2009: CLIMATE CHANGE COULD DEVASTATE AGRICULTURE IN CHINA
    Climate science has determined that IF climate change causes sufficiently extreme weather and IF they devastate agriculture in China, THEN the impact on the economic and social development of China would be incalculable”. The fear of global warming is now being delivered as pure hypothetical statements using the words “if” and “could”. More info: http://chaamjamal.blogspot.com/2009/12/reference-climate-warming-in-harvest.html
  202. 2009: ONE HUNDRED ICEBERGS BREAK OFF FROM ANTARCTICA 
    Human caused global warming is causing havoc in Antarctica with potentially incalculable results. Over one hundred icebergs broke off and a huge flotilla of them are floating up to New Zealand. More info: http://chaamjamal.blogspot.com/2009/11/reference-over-100-icebergs-drifting-to.html
  203. 2009: ANTARCTICA TO LOSING BILLIONS OF TONS OF ICE
    Our carbon dioxide emissions are causing the East Antarctic ice shelf to lose 57 billion tonnes of ice per year and that if CO2 emissions are not reduced this process could raise sea levels by 5 meters. More info: http://chaamjamal.blogspot.com/2009/11/reference-ice-loss-at-billions-of-tons.html
  204. 2009: BIOFUEL BOOM IN SE ASIA TO SAVE THE PLANET FROM FOSSIL FUELS
    The recent rapid growth in palm oil plantations in SE Asia is not for the cooking oil market but for the renewable biofuels market. This market was created by climate scientists in their urgent call for a rapid increase in biofuels to replace fossil fuels as a way of mitigating global warming and saving the planet. The same climate scientists are now complaining that their medicine is worse than the disease, that their solution to global warming causes global warming, and that their single minded obsession with carbon dioxide compromises real environmental issues. More info: http://chaamjamal.blogspot.com/2009/11/reference-turning-up-heat-on-palm-oil.html
  205. 2009: GLOBAL WARMING KILLING OFF THE CARIBOU IN THE YUKON
    In 1989 there were 178000 Porcupine caribou in the Yukon and “their number now is estimated to be 100,000” because global warming is killing off the caribou. Global warming causes freezing rain in the calving season and that makes it hard for calving caribou to feed. But if we don’t cherry pick the start of the study period as 1989 and look at all the available data we find that the population rose steadily from 100000 in 1972 to 178000 in 1989 and then decreased steadily down to 120000 in 2005. These data suggest, and caribou biologists agree, that caribou populations go through a 30 to 40-year cycle of growth and decay. This population dynamic cannot be related to global warming or carbon dioxide. More info: http://chaamjamal.blogspot.com/2009/11/reference-decline-of-caribou-bangkok.html
  206. 2009: GUANGDONG CHINA HIT WITH DROUGHT AND WATER SHORTAGE
    Drought and a drinking water shortage in Guangdong are the result of global warming due to too much carbon dioxide in the air put there by our use of fossil fuels. However, China’s very extensive historical weather record in the Fang Zhi shows that cycles of drought and flood have been characteristic of this region for 2500 years long before atmospheric carbon dioxide rose above 300 ppm. Guangdong’s growing drinking water crisis is due to rapid industrialization and population growth with large numbers of migrant workers flooding into the region. More info: http://chaamjamal.blogspot.com/2009/10/reference-fallout-of-global-warming.html
  207. 2010: ICELAND IS TOAST: CLIMATE CHANGE CAUSING VOLCANIC ERUPTION
    Fossil fuel emissions cause global warming, global warming in turn causes glaciers in Iceland to melt, and melting glaciers lighten the weight of the ice cap on volcanoes and thereby trigger eruptions (Ice cap thaw may awaken Icelandic volcanoes, April 17, 2010). That it was geothermal activity that caused the melting of the Eyjafjallajoekull glacier is not mentioned. Instead climate science tells us that the we must cut fossil fuel emissions to save Iceland from climate change hell. http://chaamjamal.blogspot.com/2010/04/reference-ice-cap-thaw-may-awaken.html
    http://chaamjamal.blogspot.com/2010/04/reference-800-flee-eruption-bangkok.html
  208. 2010: CARBON NEUTRAL BHUTAN IS A CLIMATE CHANGE POSTER CHILD
    Bhutan is a tiny country. Its main features are poverty, illiteracy, and poor medical and infrastructure services. Bhutan is carbon negative, not carbon neutral as claimed by climate science. To achieve carbon neutrality, Bhutan must increase fossil fuel consumption many fold. http://chaamjamal.blogspot.com/2010/04/reference-kingdom-sees-big-struggle-to.html
  209. 2010: GREEN ECONOMY WILL SAVE THE PLANET
    Climate science has determined that the earth is “overheated, under-resourced, and out of time”. Fortunately, although we are out of time, there is still time to save the planet. We can do that by moving to a Green Economy that would require that we stop using fossil fuels and change to renewable energy. http://chaamjamal.blogspot.com/2010/03/reference-green-economy-could-save.html
  210. 2010: RISING SEA LEVEL SINKS COASTAL ISLAND IN BANGLADESH
    Climate science says that fossil fueled global warming is causing ice to melt and sea levels to rise and that the destruction that this process can cause is already evident in that the ocean has taken back an island from Bangladesh. (Note: New Moore Island, Talpatti in local lingo, is one of many evanescent islands that come and go on the coast of this delta nation but in the net land is gained not lost). More info here http://chaamjamal.blogspot.com/2010/03/reference-rising-sea-levels-sinks-new.html
  211. 2010: THE CLIMATEGATE SCANDAL AND COPENHAGEN
    It appears that climate change will be harder to sell than previously thought. Hurricane Katrina, sinking tropical islands, climate refugees, and melting glaciers in the Himalayas have been oversold and they are no longer effective. The credibility of climate scientists has been eroded by the Climategate email scandal and also by the revelation of data anomalies. More info: http://chaamjamal.blogspot.com/2010/02/unwinding-of-climate-change-hype-once.html http://chaamjamal.blogspot.com/2010/01/reference-meeting-copenhagens-challenge.html
  212. 2010: FLAWED CLIMATE ACTION PLAN OF KYOTO/UNFCCC 
    The UNFCCC emission reduction plan is confounded with a complicated classification of nations and their responsibilities and such bureaucratic double-speak as “Common But Differentiated Responsibilities and Respective Capabilities” (CBDRRC); and it is further corrupted by the built-in weakness of the carbon credit plan. These weaknesses have turned the UN emission reduction plan into a giant money game in which rich countries can pay developing countries to not develop and a great enthusiasm among countries classified as “vulnerable” to tout their vulnerability and demand money. More info: http://chaamjamal.blogspot.com/2010/01/reference-maldive-state-of-mind-bangkok.html Also this: https://www.die-gdi.de/uploads/media/DP_6.2014..pdf
  213. 2010: CLIMATE CHANGE IS KILLING OFF POLAR BEARS AND THE WALRUSES
    Global warming is melting ice in the Arctic and devastating the ecosystem that nurtures the habitats of the Polar Bear and the Walrus. Urgent climate action is needed to save these great creatures of the North. More info: http://chaamjamal.blogspot.com/2010/01/reference-walruses-suffer-losses-as-sea.html
  214. 2010: NATURAL VARIABILITY CAN TEMPORARILY OVERCOME AGW
    Climate scientists say the extreme weather is caused by man-made climate change if they can come up with a rationale to explain that effect. In cases where they can’t come up with a rationale the weather effect is explained as a case where natural variability had temporarily overcome human caused global warming. More info: http://chaamjamal.blogspot.com/2010/01/reference-cold-snap-not-end-of-global.html
  215. 2010: FOSSIL FUEL CO2 = EXTERNAL PERTURBATION OF THE CARBON CYCLE
    Since Callendar 1938 and right up to Hansen 1981 and IPCC 2007 the human-caused global warming argument has been that the use of hydrocarbon fuels by humans since the industrial revolution injects new external carbon into the carbon cycle that is not part of the current account of the carbon cycle and therefore it is a perturbation of nature’s current account of the carbon cycle. This means that all human caused CO2 emissions are not at issue – only those from fossil fuels because fossil fuels are external to the carbon cycle and their use injects new carbon into the carbon cycle. So for example, human respiration is not human caused CO2 emissions because that CO2 belongs to the current account of the carbon cycle. Somewhere along the way the climate scientists lost track of this aspect of their own theory and have begun to identify even natural non-fossil fuel elements of the current account of the carbon cycle as causes of rising atmospheric carbon dioxide. More info: http://chaamjamal.blogspot.com/2010/01/reference-redd-alert-bangkok-post.html

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[LIST OF POSTS ON THIS SITE]

 

THIS POST IS A TRANSCRIPT AND REVIEW OF THE ALLEN JONES CLIMATE CHANGE LECTURE ON SKY NEWS AUSTRALIA 11 FEB 2020 [LINK]  . IT IS PRESENTED IN TWO PARTS. PART-1 IS A TRANSCRIPT OF OF THE LECTURE. PART-2 IS A COMMENTARY ON SOME OF THE TOPICS COVERED IN THE LECTURE 

 

PART-1: EDITED TRANSCRIPT OF THE ALLEN JONES LECTURE

(1) All Australians should be disturbed by the direction in which the climate debate is heading. You can’t move or read or speak without everything being climate change. And there aren’t too many who are prepared to stand up against what is often uninformed, poorly researched, and in many cases factually inaccurate arguments in defense of the climate change imperative. {Remember? It used to be global warming? And when the planet didn’t warm, it’s now called climate change}. It has reached a point of hysteria. It is pumped out in the classroom in schools and universities, in the media, and in corporate boardrooms. It is the new phony religion.

(2) The Dorothea MacKellar poem “My Country” is something everyone talks about in the context of climate change; but this poem was written when Dorothea was 19 years old in the year 1904. She wrote then about a sunburnt country and drought and flooding rain. And a pitiless blue sky and “When sick at heart, around us, We see the cattle die – But then the grey clouds gather, And we can bless again The drumming of an army, The steady, soaking rain. This is 1904! and a poetic expression of the cyclical nature of weather – drought, flooding rain, cattle dying in what she called “a willful lavish land”. The juxtaposition of the adjectives is important. It is a country that is willful on the one hand and lavish on the other. In 1904 there was no global warming, no coal fired power stations. {The full text of the poem is included below}.

(3) Chris Kenny is one of the few people prepared to step into the ring. He has written previously that since November 2019 to the middle of January 2020, the phrase climate change” was used more often in the media than the words disaster or devastation. The phrase “climate change” was mentioned across the media almost 900,000 times. This propaganda on steroids. And then there’s the word “unprecedented“. Chris pointed out that it was used in the media almost 200,000 times in two months.

(4) I tried today in the Sydney Daily Telegraph four days ago on page 13 to provide some perspective on all of this 4 days ago. Far from being unprecedented 4 days ago, and far from being what former Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull had called “utterly without precedence in our history“, of course these are the words of the forgettable Malcolm Turnbull about whom Peter and I have discussed his contradictions and hypocrisy on the issue of coal fired power plants. The utterances of Turnbull this week shows a revenge mentality against the political party that got rid of him.

(5) Here is Turnbull on bushfires, quote:  “This is the inevitable consequence of global warming. These bushfires are utterly without precedent in our history and the effect of Australia’s image abroad has been profound”. Well, if you prosecute on truths abroad, you are likely to damage Australia’s image. As I pointed out many times during Turnbull’s term as Prime Minister, in March 2018, the beautiful little community of Tathra on the South Coast of New South Wales was appallingly affected by bushfires for two days with 69 houses and 30 cabins destroyed and 39 houses damaged. The likely cause was not climate change but the failure of the electricity infrastructure. The Greens attribute the Tathra fire to climate change. Mr Turbull’s position was “I am disappointed that the Greens would try to politicize an event like this. You can’t attribute any particular event, whether it is flood or fire, or drought or storm, to climate change“. Yet on February 5, 2020, he had determined that the bushfires of 2019-2020 were “the inevitable consequence of global warming” because “these bushfires are utterly without precedent in our history“. 

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(6)  This kind of illogic and hypocrisy is the proof of the real underlying truth that in climate change activism, the relevant details of the data and the circumstances are less important than the need to use them in raising a climate change alarm in terms of the data. Surprisingly, this strategy works because if the alarm is scary enough the underlying details are overlooked by the masses. The effectiveness of words like “unprecedented” in this strategy appears to be the key to its success.

 

THE BLACK SATURDAY FIRES OF 2008

(7)  It has been 11 years since fires broke out on Black Saturday across Victoria fanned by gusty winds and high temperature. It was not called “Black Saturday” for nothing. 450,000 hectares were burned, 173 people died, 414 were injured, and 2,029 houses were destroyed. Yet, the former Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull says that the 2019-2020 bushfires are “utterly without precedence in our history. No one can deny the immense tragedy of the 2019-2020 bushfires but as Chris Kenny has written in the Australian, “Climate politics in this country is so wacky that informed adults ought to just scoff at them and move on”.

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(8)  The real experts on the subject of bushfires will tell you over and over again that you can’t have a fire without fuel. The trial of innocent Australians is the failure to take on the Greens and do something about hazard reduction as seen in the failure to clean and clear the forest floor. Chris Kenny summed it up splendidly this weekend and good on him for not giving up. The lady here with me tonight doesn’t give up. She too writes splendidly on weekends (more on that later). Chris Kenny said simply and emphatically that “The climate debate has turned hysterical and ugly. (Australian Prime Minister)) Scott Morrison must defeat this madness. Climate politics in this country is so wacky that informed adults ought to scoff at them and move on. It’s hard in the face of saturation climate change propaganda but the battle must be joined. This hysteria and new phony religion must be addressed and it must be beaten.

(9) Some of the Viewer comments on Youtube:   John Bolton: If you give the government more of your money, the climate will change. That’s the insanity they are pushing. Even more insane… the people who believe it.  Ivanwain The recent fires destroyed 46 million acres. Unprecedented? The fires of 1974 destroyed 290 million.  Trevor Arthurson: Climate Scientist Tim Flannery said none of the rain will go into the dams. On the 10th of December in Moree climate scientists from the BOM told politicians that there would be no significant rainfall ‘til May. Reality has proved them WRONG.  Jack Russell  The Left spent decades demanding that Religious instruction be dropped from schools. Now we know why. They were preparing the ground to push their own religion: Climate Change.  Elazar de Lusignan M.  Current “NEWS,” doesn’t report the weather, they fabricate it. Fake “NEWS” and obfuscation, has become systemic. Real NEWS, is inconvenient.  40aterules   Amen….and those so called scientists that attempt to back it up are the ones with cushy high paying jobs with money that is derived from the money nations are guilt tripped into giving them your money!  Matthew Burke  Finally some people that make some damn sense. I’m sick of this climate change hoax.  Aussie Pom Scientist find if they’re after funding and their submission doesn’t include the magic words “climate change” then they don’t get any funding. Their submission may have nothing to do with climate whatsoever but if they include those two words then the funding is forthcoming. Politicians are just too afraid to tell the truth for it will affect their popularity polls and they’d be massacred by the main stream media who they fear the most.  Tracy Holliday  They will cling to it forever, it is their bread and butter in taxes, and their biggest weapon against the elected people’s choice.  bill hanna  The sky’s falling – give money…Carbon Credits , The Banker gangsters (Rothschilds) World TAX for Dummies.  OUTRAGED Aussie  Climate change is a hoax follow the money and learn the truth.  andrew rowe  follow the money  John Smith  I need to pay more taxes to an unelected bureaucracy to make the weather change  Steve Mercer  I’ve been around for 54 years, mostly in the UK. I’ve seen freezing winters where it was a struggle to get even a pick axe in the ground. I’ve seen mild and wet winters where the ground is sodden. I’ve seen deep snow and I’ve seen no snow. I’ve seen summers where we’ve had hardly any rain and a hosepipe ban. Seagulls lying dead on the beach because of the heat and drowned because they can’t get lift. I’ve seen summers where holidays were crap because of the rain. My shorts didn’t see the light of day, the barby left unused. My sunnies left in the case. Every single one of those 54 years were different and the years I have left will be different as well. Climate has always changed, always will. Not one socialist lunatic, or cowardly “go with the crowd” politician or CEO will change that. More people need to wake up to the fact that we are being manipulated into thinking that handing over our freedom of thought and action will make our lives better. So called climate emergency is being used as a tool to make few people more powerful and the majority subservient. Kids, don’t be sheep. Do your own research, think for yourselves and don’t be fooled into thinking that you have to be looked after because the “hierarchy” knows best.  BMyVision  – Fires are caused by “….a failure to clean and clear the forest floor.” California, same policy…same resulting fires.  T DoubleU  climate change is a mental illness    Benjamin Falzon  Back in 1904 schools thought the Children the facts, but in 2020 they are teaching the children loads of crap.

 

 

 

PART-2: COMMENTS ON THE ALLEN JONES LECTURE

To the powerful and insightful lecture by Mr. Jones against climate activism I would like to add the following notes about the nature, the history, and what I believe are the the roots, of this movement back in the environmental activism of the 1960s and 1970s in the USA.

(1) The commonly held belief is that the issue is climate change and that therefore, the debate is about the details and the science of climate change and about its fearful impacts such as bushfires, extreme weather, ice melt, sea level rise, and ocean acidification. Here I present the case against this assumption and propose that the climate affair of our time is best understood not in terms of climate change but in terms of climate action. My thesis is that Climate Action is the underlying movement for which climate change serves only as the rationale and the motivation.

(2) Climate action is an expression of anti fossil fuel activism.  Anti fossil fuel activism is best understood in terms of the 1960s and 1970s anti smog, anti pollution, and anti oil spill movement that had won the pollution war and had assumed that they had won the war against fossil fuels such that thereafter, beginning in the late 1970s, an energy revolution took hold. Renewable energy innovations held out the promise of the end of fossil fuels and the pollution they cause simply by the availability of a better product in the market for energy.  An energy movement to renewable sources of “natural energy” such as wind, solar, hydro, tidal, and geothermal took hold and grew rapidly with forecasts  of a renewable energy revolution and the end of fossil fuels. The hills along the highway from Berkeley to Sacramento California became dotted with huge wind turbines.

(3) At the same time, the so called “peak oil” and “end oil” forecasts of the coming depletion of fossil fuel resources began to appear in the news simultaneously with the Club of Rome report of the imminent depletion of the essential resources that sustain the industrial economy. These forecasts, along with energy crises created by the OPEC oil embargo of 1973 and the uprising against the Shah of Iran in 1979, had created a crisis in the fossil fuel industry and a perceived weakness in the industry and a search for alternatives to fossil fuels.

(4) The combination of pollution and oil spill issues and the energy crises of the 1970s created a feeling among consumers, energy analysts, and energy activists alike that fossil fuels were on the way out. It was thought to be axiomatic, particularly so among the anti pollution & anti fossil fuel activists, that the clean energy alternatives that were then being developed and implemented would be our energy future. It seemed certain then that the days of our fossil fueled economy were numbered and that a new age of renewable energy was dawning .

(5) It was in this setting and in the context of an exciting anticipation of an energy technology revolution that would end the age of fossil fuels, that the climate change issue was inserted into the energy dialog with a modernized and significantly revised version of Callendar 1938 [LINK] , the world’s first anthropogenic global warming and climate change (AGW) paper. {Footnote#1: A common criticism of AGW climate science is that the name was changed from global warming to climate change when warming became harder to prove is not correct as both terms have been used since Callendar 1938}.  {Footnote#2: the claim by climate science of an earlier origin of climate change science with Svante Arrhenius(1896) contains a fatal logical flaw [LINK] }. The Callendar paper [LINK]  notes that temperature data in Britain and parts of Europe on average showed a rising trend from 1900 to 1938 and that over the same period atmospheric CO2 concentrations measured in various parts of Europe had also gone up during a time when the industrial revolution was burning fossil fuels and exhausting carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. In his paper he related these events in a causation sequence where observed changes in atmospheric composition are attributed to fossil fuel emissions of the industrial economy and the observed warming in surface temperature is attributed to changes in atmospheric composition specifically with respect to the heat trapping effect of carbon dioxide that was known at the time principally from the works of Tyndal and others [LINK] . A relevant feature of the Callendar paper is that it contained no fear of warming and no call to climate action against fossil fuels. The warming then was a welcome relief from the hardship of the Little Ice Age that had created extreme hardships in Europe [LINK] . Callendar had also pointed out the agricultural benefits of higher atmospheric CO2 concentration in terms of a driver for much needed photosynthesis.

(6)  The Callendar paper was well received and a few papers followed in this line of research by Revelle and others but both the paper and the theory of a warming trend driven by fossil fuel emissions of the industrial economy lost credibility and popularity when the 38-year warming noted by Callendar ended in the 1940s and the world entered a 30-year cooling trend that created widespread fear of a return to the horrors of the Little Ice Age [LINK] . The AGW idea thus lay dormant until the cooling ended in late 1970s and until the trend had returned to warming  such that by the early 1980s a strong warming trend could be identified from the depths of the cooling in the 1950s to the early years of the warming in the 1980s.

(7)  This warming event and the landmark paper and Congressional Testimony by James Hansen [LINK] were the trigger that created the modern version of fear based AGW activism against fossil fuels that we see today when the United Nations, invoked its newly created role as global environmental regulator by way of the UNEP (United Nations Environmental Program) and its claim to success of its Montreal Protocol that successfully implemented a global ban on ozone depleting substances and thus claimed to have solved the projected global devastation of human caused OZONE depletion [LINK] . This claim to success is shown to be illusory on a related post [LINK] . However, the UN was successful in presenting itself as a global environmental protection agency that had saved the world from ozone depletion.

(8) Fresh from its apparent success in stopping human caused ozone depletion with the Montreal Protocol, the UN took on the AGW climate change issue as laid out in the Hansen Congressional Testimony, as the new global environmental crisis for the UNEP to solve. The UN then decided to replicate the Montreal Protocol in terms of climate change in the Kyoto Protocol. The Kyoto Protocol (aka UNFCCC) failed. The UN bureaucrats could not appreciate the enormous difference between changing refrigerants and overhauling the world’s energy infrastructure. The end of fossil fuels that seemed to be in sight had suddenly vanished from view.

(9)  In response, the UN bureaucrats concocted a bureaucratic plan to achieve the Montreal Protocol success in the Kyoto Protocol/UNFCCC by holding a series of meetings of the signatories to the Kyoto Protocol (UNFCCC) . These meetings called “Conference of Parties” (i.e. Parties to the Kyoto Protocol UNFCCC), or COP, not only failed to implement the the Kyoto Protocol/UNFCCC, but provided sufficient evidence to all observers that the COP meetings were farcical and that the UN would be unable to replicate its Montreal Protocol success in the Kyoto Protocol/UNFCCC. This realization dashed all hopes that this process will achieve the desired goal of overhauling the global energy infrastructure away from fossil fuels although COP after COP continued to be held.

(10)  I propose here that it was this realization, that the UN, with its UNFCCC and COP meetings, is unable to rid the world of fossil fuels with climate action plans that made the movers and shakers of anti fossil fuel activism realize that the Kyoto Protocol/UNFCCC battle against fossil fuels had been lost. It is thus that a Plan-B became necessary – a plan of intensive and extensive global fear based activism against fossil fuels and to keep ratcheting up the fear of fossil fuels until climate action against fossil fuels is achieved. This is the state of climate change today. The individuals, organizations, and funding that animates this activism plan are not known but there are many guesses and propositions on the table [LINK] and it is known that the fear based anti fossil fuel activism program is well organized and orchestrated by its unknown prime movers [LINK] . The movement not only employs street protesters, child activists, the media, and high profile spokespersons, but also climate scientists found on the internet and in public meetings and events, promoting the fear of climate change as a scientific truth. The need to continually ratchet up the fear level and the language of fear is understood in this context and seen in this related post [LINK] .

(11)  FOOTNOTE:  The activists identified in the Allen Jones video include the media, the government, and outright climate activists such as street protesters listed on the “climate movement” website [LINK] ; and it is suggested that to free society from this tyranny we must fight back against this group of people. As we all surely know, this movement is neither as spontaneous nor as original as many might assume. For example, unruly and uneducated protest mobs and young teenage girls lecturing world leaders on climate change and the needed climate action are not the source of the activism or the science they preach. They are puppets of the real actors. I believe that the issue of the architects of this movement behind the scene and its funding are complex and mostly unknown that is unlikely to be affected by attacking their agents and puppets. 

 

 

 

 

THE DOROTHEA MACKELLAR THE POEM

I love a sunburnt country, A land of sweeping plains, Of ragged mountain ranges, Of droughts and flooding rains. I love her far horizons, I love her jewel-sea, Her beauty and her terror The wide brown land for me! A stark white ring-barked forest All tragic to the moon, The sapphire-misted mountains, The hot gold hush of noon. Green tangle of the brushes, Where lithe lianas coil, And orchids deck the tree-tops And ferns the warm dark soil. Core of my heart, my country! Her pitiless blue sky, When sick at heart, around us, We see the cattle die – But then the grey clouds gather, And we can bless again The drumming of an army, The steady, soaking rain. Core of my heart, my country! Land of the Rainbow Gold, For flood and fire and famine, She pays us back threefold Over the thirsty paddocks, Watch, after many days, The filmy veil of greenness That thickens as we gaze. An opal-hearted country, A willful, lavish land – All you who have not loved her, You will not understand -Though earth holds many splendors, Wherever I may die, I know to what brown country My homing thoughts will fly.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[LINK TO THE HOME PAGE OF THIS SITE]

RELATED POSTS[LINK]  [LINK] [LINK] [LINK]

Updated: 3/21/2020 4:30pm Thai time (typo corrections)

THIS POST IS A PRESENTATION OF HYDROTHERMAL VENT ECOSYSTEMS IN WHICH SHELLFISH AND VARIOUS OTHER CARBON LIFE FORMS THRIVE IN A CARBON DIOXIDE RICH ENVIRONMENT OF THE OCEAN SUBJECT TO AN EXTREME FORM OF OCEAN ACIDIFICATION AS DESCRIBED BY CLIMATE SCIENCE IN THE CONTEXT OF AGW CLIMATE CHANGE  [LINK] [LINK] [LINK] [LINK]  AND ALSO IN TERMS OF PRIOR EVENTS OF THIS NATURE IN THE PALEO RECORD [LINK] .

BRIEFLY, EVEN AS WE WORRY ABOUT HUMANS ACIDIFYING THE OCEAN FROM ABOVE WITH THE 0.2% OF THE PLANET’S CARBON ON THE CRUST OF THE PLANET WHERE WE LIVE AND WHERE WE HAVE CLIMATE, THE MIDDLE OF THE PLANET, WHERE THERE IS NO CLIMATE, IS HOLDING THE OTHER 99.8% OF THE PLANET’S CARBON AND IS ABLE TO ACIDIFY THE OCEAN FROM BELOW JUST AS IT HAD DONE IN THE PETM [LINK] HORROR

 

 

WOODS HOLE OCEANOGRAPHIC INSTITUTION VENT CHEMISTRY IMAGES [LINK]  

WOODS HOLE IMAGE#1: SOLAR AND  VENT LIFE SYSTEMS COMPARED

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WOODS HOLE IMAGE#2: GLOBAL DISTRIBUTION OF HYDROTHERMAL VENTS

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WOODS HOLE IMAGE#3: VENT CHEMISTRY

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WOODS HOLE IMAGE#4: VENT LIFE FORMS

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  1. HYDROTHERMAL VENTS: In places where the earth’s lithosphere is rifting, deep rift valleys can form that provide a leakage between the mantle and the ocean floor where heat, carbon, and minerals can seep out from the outer mantle and into the ocean floor to heat ocean bottom water to up to 400C and form hydrothermal vents.
  2. VENT ECO SYSTEMS: The nutrient rich minerals along with carbon, heat energy, and water in the bottom of the ocean provide an alternative to the origin of carbon life forms on the surface based on solar energy. Down on the ocean floor carbon life forms are created in the absence of sunlight with the combination of carbon, heat, and nutrients from the mantle able to create a parallel alternate life system on earth. This is how hydrothermal vents create an alternate ecosystem on the ocean floor and why they are found to be teeming with life in the dark.
  3. VENT CHEMISTRY#1: The Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, one of the few academic research organizations relatively unaffected by the climate change research agenda, maintains an informative online document on the chemistry of hydrothermal vent waters [LINK] . It is a useful resource in the study of hydrothermal vents. It is used here in conjunction with the literature (bibliography below) to study vent chemistry and vent ecosystems in the context of the climate change alarm of the destruction of ocean ecosystems by acidification of the oceans with fossil fuel emissions  [LINK] [LINK] [LINK] [LINK].  
  4. VENT CHEMISTRY#2: (i) Cold seawater sinks through cracks in the crust where it loses its oxygen, potassium, magnesium, and calcium sulfate and gains sodium, calcium, and potassium from below. As the temperature rises to above 400C, copper, zinc, hydrogen sulfide, and carbon dioxide dissolve into the fluid that can no longer be called water or liquid. The chemical reactions have formed a whole new kind of fluid. As the magma heats this fluid, it rises up through the the cracks of the crust into the ocean floor where it mixes with cold sea water rich in oxygen causing zinc, copper, and magnesium to react with sulfur to form sulfides. The temperature drops to below 400C rich in dissolved chemicals where microbes thrive.
  5. VENT ECOSYSTEMS: Vent ecosystems consist of Clams, Mussels, Crabs, Shrimp, Octopus, Tubeworms, Zoarcid Fish, Microbes, Dandelion, and species not known to us and not yet studied. Tubeworms are worms that build themselves a tube to live in. Zoarcid Fish are large fish that hunt for food in the vent ecosystem of which they prefer tubeworms and shrimp. Vent ecosystems are their hunting grounds.
  6. PHOTOSYNTHESIS VERSUS CHEMOSYNTHESIS:  Photosynthesis of carbon lifeforms on the surface uses sunlight as the energy source. Plant leaves capture the sun’s energy and carbon dioxide from the surrounding air and converts carbon dioxide into sugars releasing oxygen into the air. Chemosynthesis in the ocean floor, where there is no sunlight, uses hydrogen sulfide. The microbes consume hydrogen sulfide, oxygen, and carbon dioxide to generate their energy and sustain their life processes and produce sulfur, oxygen, and water. This process is the analog of photosynthesis on the surface.
  7. OCEAN ACIDIFICATION#1: In related posts [LINK] [LINK] [LINK] it is shown that there is a significant concern in climate change science that some of the fossil fuel emissions of the industrial economy (estimated to be 20% to 30%) , is absorbed by the ocean and it is feared that the “ocean acidification” thus caused will devastate oceanic ecosystems. However, this concern seems inconsistent with mass balance analyses that show that the rate of fossil fuel emissions is insignificant in the context of ocean acidification [LINK] and in comparison with the estimate of the volume of hydrothermal flows in the ocean itself that exceed fossil fuel emissions by orders of magnitude  (Stott 2019). As well, the primary concern in the fossil fuel driven ocean acidification research agenda of climate science is the harm it will do to ocean creatures that are described for example in terms of causing the shells of shellfish to dissolve with the further concern that the accumulation of this debris on the ocean floor may damage the ocean floor and cause feedback carbon flows from the ocean floor to the atmosphere [LINK] . These concerns seem grossly inconsistent with the thriving ecosystems of shellfish and various other life forms in hydrothermal vent ecosystems and the grossly overestimated ability of fossil fuel emissions to acidify the ocean in the context of much higher flows of magmatic carbon in the ocean.
  8. OCEAN ACIDIFICATION#2:  In Stott etal 2019 {Hydrothermal carbon release to the ocean and atmosphere from the eastern equatorial Pacific during the last glacial termination Lowell D Stott, Kathleen M Harazin, Nadine B Quintana Krupinski, Environmental Research Letters 14(2019)025007}, the authors used paleoclimate proxies from the deep ocean to determine that the amount of carbon from the mantle that enters the ocean through hydrothermal vents is extremely large such that the prior deglaciation transition from the Pleistocene to the Holocene more than 12,000 years ago can be explained by the greenhouse effect of the portion of the ocean’s CO2 content that had been released to the atmosphere. The abstract appears below. the full text of the paper in pdf format is posted here stott2019pdf
  9. MASS IMBALANCE: As in the PETM [LINK] , what we see here is that it is not the atmosphere that is acidifying the ocean but the ocean that is acidifying the atmosphere. The total mass of the ocean and atmosphere taken together is 1.36E18 metric tonnes of which the atmosphere is 0.38% and the ocean 99.62%. The insistence of climate science that the atmosphere tail wags the ocean dog in terms of heat and carbon dioxide content is not credible in many different ways.
  10. STOTT(2019): ABSTRACT: Among the most globally significant climate change events are the glacial terminations into interglacials. With the acquisition and analysis of marine and continental records, including ice cores, it is now clear that the Earth’s climate was responding profoundly to changes in greenhouse gases that accompanied those glacial terminations. But the ultimate forcing responsible for the greenhouse gas variability remains elusive. The oceans must play a central role in any hypothesis that attempt to explain the systematic variations in pCO2 because the Ocean is a giant carbon capacitor, regulating carbon entering and leaving the atmosphere. For a long time, geological processes that generate fluxes of carbon to and from the oceans were thought to operate too slowly to account for any of the systematic variations in atmospheric pCO2 that accompanied glacial cycles during the Pleistocene. Here we investigate the role that Earth’s hydrothermal vents played in affecting the flux of carbon to the ocean and ultimately, the atmosphere during the last glacial termination. We document late glacial and deglacial intervals of anomalously old 14C reservoir ages, large benthic-planktic foraminifera 14C age differences, and increased deposition of hydrothermal metals in marine sediments from the eastern equatorial Pacific (EEP)that indicate a significant release of hydrothermal vent fluids entered the ocean at the last glacial termination. The large 14C anomaly was accompanied by a∼4-fold increase in Zn/Ca in both benthic and planktic foraminifera that reflects an increase in dissolved [Zn]throughout the water column. Foraminiferal B/Ca and Li/Ca results from these sites document deglacial declines in [ – CO3 2 ]throughout the water column; these were accompanied by carbonate dissolution at water depths that today lie well above the calcite lysocline. Taken together, these results are strong evidence for an increased flux of hydrothermal vent derived carbon through the EEP upwelling system at the last glacial termination that would have exchanged with the atmosphere and affected both Δ14C and pCO2. These data do not quantify the amount of carbon released to the atmosphere through the EEP upwelling system but indicate that geologic forcing must be incorporated into models that attempt to simulate the cyclic nature of glacial/interglacial climate variability. Importantly, these results underscore the need to put better constraints on the flux of carbon from geologic reservoirs that affect the global carbon budget.
  11. PALEOCENE-EOCENE THERMAL MAXIMUM: In a related post  [LINK] significant evidence is presented from the literature that the horrific events of the PETM climate event about 55 million years ago were driven by magmatic carbon from beneath the ocean. In that event a catastrophic carbon oxidation event in the ocean at once depleted the ocean’s oxygen, warmed the ocean, caused a mass extinction in the ocean, and raised atmospheric CO2 levels by 70% from the oxidation effluent released to the atmosphere. The PETM event underscores the importance of magmatic carbon flows from hydrothermal vents into the ocean.

 

 

CONCLUSION

THE OCEAN ACIDIFICATION ALARM OF CLIMATE SCIENCE, THAT FOSSIL FUEL EMISSIONS WILL ACIDIFY THE OCEAN AND HARM OCEAN ECOSYSTEMS IS INCONSISTENT WITH A MASS BALANCE THAT SHOWS THAT FOSSIL FUEL EMISSIONS ARE RELATIVELY INSIGNIFICANT IN THAT CONTEXT PARTICULARLY SO IN VIEW OF MUCH LARGER NATURAL FLOWS OF MAGMATIC CARBON INTO THE OCEAN THROUGH HYDROTHERMAL VENTS AND SUBMARINE VOLCANISM.

IT IS ALSO NOTED THAT THE CONCERN IN CLIMATE SCIENCE OF THE HARM OF OCEAN ACIDIFICATION TO MARINE ECOSYSTEMS IN NOT CONSISTENT WITH THE DATA THAT SHOW FLOURISHING ECOSYSTEMS IN NATURAL OCEAN ACIDIFICATION ENVIRONMENTS.

IN TERMS OF THE FEAR OF CLIMATE SCIENTISTS THAT FOSSIL FUEL EMISSIONS WILL ACIDIFY THE OCEAN, WE PROPOSE THAT THIS CONCERN MUST BE SUPPORTED WITH A MASS BALANCE THAT SHOWS THE ABILITY OF FOSSIL FUEL EMISSIONS TO HARM THE OCEAN IN THE CONTEXT OF THE RELATIVELY MINUTE AMOUNT OF FOSSIL FUELS AVAILABLE AND OF MUCH LARGER NATURAL FLOWS.

 

 

 

THE RELEVANT BIBLIOGRAPHY 

  1. Levin, Lisa A., et al. “Hydrothermal vents and methane seeps: rethinking the sphere of influence.” Frontiers in Marine Science 3 (2016): 72.  Although initially viewed as oases within a barren deep ocean, hydrothermal vents and methane seep chemosynthetic communities are now recognized to interact with surrounding ecosystems on the sea floor and in the water column, and to affect global geochemical cycles. The importance of understanding these interactions is growing as the potential rises for disturbance of the systems from oil and gas extraction, seabed mining and bottom trawling. Here we synthesize current knowledge of the nature, extent and time and space scales of vent and seep interactions with background systems. We document an expanded footprint beyond the site of local venting or seepage with respect to elemental cycling and energy flux, habitat use, trophic interactions, and connectivity. Heat and energy are released, global biogeochemical and elemental cycles are modified, and particulates are transported widely in plumes. Hard and biotic substrates produced at vents and seeps are used by “benthic background” fauna for attachment substrata, shelter, and access to food via grazing or through position in the current, while particulates and fluid fluxes modify planktonic microbial communities. Chemosynthetic production provides nutrition to a host of benthic and planktonic heterotrophic background species through multiple horizontal and vertical transfer pathways assisted by flow, gamete release, animal movements, and succession, but these pathways remain poorly known. Shared species, genera and families indicate that ecological and evolutionary connectivity exists among vents, seeps, organic falls and background communities in the deep sea; the genetic linkages with inactive vents and seeps and background assemblages however, are practically unstudied. The waning of venting or seepage activity generates major transitions in space and time that create links to surrounding ecosystems, often with identifiable ecotones or successional stages. The nature of all these interactions is dependent on water depth, as well as regional oceanography and biodiversity. Many ecosystem services are associated with the interactions and transitions between chemosynthetic and background ecosystems, for example carbon cycling and sequestration, fisheries production, and a host of non-market and cultural services. The quantification of the sphere of influence of vents and seeps could be beneficial to better management of deep-sea environments in the face of growing industrialization.
  2. Reynolds, P., et al. “Hydrothermal vent complexes offshore Northeast Greenland: A potential role in driving the PETM.” Earth and Planetary Science Letters 467 (2017): 72-78Continental rifting is often associated with voluminous magmatism and perturbations in the Earth’s climate. In this study, we use 2D seismic data from the northeast Greenland margin to document two Paleogene-aged sill complexes ≥18000 and ≥10000 km2 in size. Intrusion of the sills resulted in the contact metamorphism of carbon-rich shales, producing thermogenic methane which was released via 52 newly discovered hydrothermal vent complexes, some of which reach up to 11 km in diameter. Mass balance calculations indicate that the volume of methane produced by these intrusive complexes is comparable to that required to have caused the negative δ13C isotope excursion associated with the PETM. Combined with data from the conjugate Norwegian margin, our study provides evidence for margin-scale, volcanically-induced greenhouse gas release during the late Paleocene/early Eocene. Given the abundance of similar-aged sill complexes in Upper Paleozoic–Mesozoic and Cretaceous–Tertiary basins elsewhere along the northeast Atlantic continental margin, our findings support a major role for volcanism in driving global climate change.
  3. Iyer, Karthik, Lars Rüpke, and Christophe Y. Galerne. “Modeling fluid flow in sedimentary basins with sill intrusions: Implications for hydrothermal venting and climate change.” Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems 14.12 (2013): 5244-5262.  Large volumes of magma emplaced within sedimentary basins have been linked to multiple climate change events due to release of greenhouse gases such as CH4. Basin‐scale estimates of thermogenic methane generation show that this process alone could generate enough greenhouse gases to trigger global incidents. However, the rates at which these gases are transported and released into the atmosphere are quantitatively unknown. We use a 2D, hybrid FEM/FVM model that solves for fully compressible fluid flow to quantify the thermogenic release and transport of methane and to evaluate flow patterns within these systems. Our results show that the methane generation potential in systems with fluid flow does not significantly differ from that estimated in diffusive systems. The values diverge when vigorous convection occurs with a maximum variation of about 50%. The fluid migration pattern around a cooling, impermeable sill alone generates hydrothermal plumes without the need for other processes such as boiling and/or explosive degassing. These fluid pathways are rooted at the edges of the outer sills consistent with seismic imaging. Methane venting at the surface occurs in three distinct stages and can last for hundreds of thousands of years. Our simulations suggest that although the quantity of methane potentially generated within the contact aureole can cause catastrophic climate change, the rate at which this methane is released into the atmosphere is too slow to trigger, by itself, some of the negative δ13C excursions observed in the fossil record over short time scales (<10,000 years).
  4. Bell, James B., Clare Woulds, and Dick van Oevelen. “Hydrothermal activity, functional diversity and chemoautotrophy are major drivers of seafloor carbon cycling.” Scientific reports 7.1 (2017): 1-13.  Hydrothermal vents are highly dynamic ecosystems and are unusually energy rich in the deep-seaIn situ hydrothermal-based productivity combined with sinking photosynthetic organic matter in a soft-sediment setting creates geochemically diverse environments, which remain poorly studied. Here, we use comprehensive set of new and existing field observations to develop a quantitative ecosystem model of a deep-sea chemosynthetic ecosystem from the most southerly hydrothermal vent system known. We find evidence of chemosynthetic production supplementing the metazoan food web both at vent sites and elsewhere in the Bransfield Strait. Endosymbiont-bearing fauna were very important in supporting the transfer of chemosynthetic carbon into the food web, particularly to higher trophic levels. Chemosynthetic production occurred at all sites to varying degrees but was generally only a small component of the total organic matter inputs to the food web, even in the most hydrothermally active areas, owing in part to a low and patchy density of vent-endemic fauna. Differences between relative abundance of faunal functional groups, resulting from environmental variability, were clear drivers of differences in biogeochemical cycling and resulted in substantially different carbon processing patterns between habitats.
  5. Campbell, Kathleen A. “Hydrocarbon seep and hydrothermal vent paleoenvironments and paleontology: Past developments and future research directions.” Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology 232.2-4 (2006): 362-407. Hydrocarbon seeps and hydrothermal vents are now known to be common at continental margins and oceanic spreading centers worldwide, exuding fluids rich in CH4 and H2S, and teeming with life based on chemosynthesis. These settings have been implicated as the crucibles for life’s origin, and as locales for methane release to the atmosphere from hydrate destabilization during past climate change. Ancient vent and seep deposits are also increasingly recognized, and occur in various sizes, lithologies, biotic compositions, geotectonic settings and ages. Precambrian vents were populated with microbes, with the oldest metazoans in vent settings reported from possibly the Cambrian, but definitely by the Silurian. The oldest purported seep deposit with metazoan fossils is Silurian in age. A largely endemic and chemosymbiotic biota from modern vents and seeps appears distinct phylogenetically from those taxa of deposits older than Late Jurassic, with a shift from extant families of particular bivalves and gastropods to now-extinct family groups of brachiopods, monoplacophorans, bivalves and gastropods. An exception may be worm tubes of possible vestimentiferan origins, with a history in hydrothermal vent paleoenvironments extending back to the Early Paleozoic. Unfortunately their relatively simple morphology and particular style of preservation make comparisons with living groups a challenge. There may also be an ancient “lineage” of vent–seep restricted rhynchonellide brachiopods, which appears to have persisted in these settings from the Late Devonian through the Early Cretaceous. Because biotic components have changed in vent–seep settings through time, several lines of evidence must be marshaled to confirm the origin of suspected deposits in the geologic record. These include distinctive stable isotopic signatures of carbon, oxygen or sulfur in authigenic precipitates and/or tests of foraminiferans, certain mineral paragenetic sequences, and fluid-flow features. Lipid biomarkers also indicate biogeochemical cycling by Archaea and Bacteria, which performed sulfate-dependent, anaerobic oxidation of methane in ancient marine sediments. The origin of an endemic modern vent–seep biota has been attributed to either enhanced accumulation of Paleozoic and Mesozoic relics, or migration of various invertebrate groups into vent and seep environments during the Phanerozoic. Current databases from fossils and molecular characterization of living groups suggest that adaptive radiations and extinctions have occurred, with a range of lineage-ages represented. Fossil and molecular data broadly coincide with respect to the Cretaceous origination of vesicomyid bivalves and neomphaline gastropods in vents and seeps, but the data sets appear discordant at present for vestimentiferan tubeworms and bathymodiolin bivalves. Paleobiogeographic patterns are just beginning to emerge from studies of vent and seep fossils, and are likely to reflect past plate tectonic configurations, sea-level change, as well as the history of organic matter accumulation, burial, hydrocarbon generation, and fluid migration with time. Thus far, ancient hydrocarbon seep deposits yield more diverse fossils than hydrothermal vent deposits, the opposite of the global diversity recently tabulated for modern vent–seep species. However, in the fossil record, taphonomic processes negatively impacted on ancient vent organisms, and the number of known ancient vent systems is still relatively few compared to regional occurrences of ancient seep deposits. Future research will likely investigate many new/suspected sites, inventory numerous additional taxa, decipher underlying causes of variability among settings, and mobilize biologists and geologists to work together to solve problems that cross both disciplines.
  6. Smith, Craig R., et al. “Abyssal food limitation, ecosystem structure and climate change.” Trends in Ecology & Evolution 23.9 (2008): 518-528.  The abyssal seafloor covers more than 50% of the Earth and is postulated to be both a reservoir of biodiversity and a source of important ecosystem services. We show that ecosystem structure and function in the abyss are strongly modulated by the quantity and quality of detrital food material sinking from the surface ocean. Climate change and human activities (e.g. successful ocean fertilization) will alter patterns of sinking food flux to the deep ocean, substantially impacting the structure, function and biodiversity of abyssal ecosystems. Abyssal ecosystem response thus must be considered in assessments of the environmental impacts of global warming and ocean fertilization.
  7. Dahms, Hans-Uwe, et al. “Marine hydrothermal vents as templates for global change scenarios.” Hydrobiologia 818.1 (2018): 1-10.  Subsurface marine hydrothermal vents (HVs) may provide a particular advantage to better understand evolutionary conditions of the early earth and future climate predictions for marine life. Hydrothermal vents (HV) are unique extreme environments that share several similarities with projected global and climate change scenarios in marine systems (e.g., low pH due to high carbon dioxide and sulfite compounds, high temperature and turbidity, high loads of toxic chemicals such as H2S and trace metals). Particularly, shallow hydrothermal vents are easily accessible for short-term and long-term experiments. Research on organisms from shallow HVs may provide insights in the molecular, ecological, and evolutionary adaptations to extreme oceanic environments by comparing them with evolutionary related but less adapted biota. A shallow-water hydrothermal vent system at the northeast Taiwan coast has been intensively studied by several international research teams. These studies revealed astounding highlights at the levels of ecosystem (being fueled by photosynthesis and chemosynthesis), community (striking biodiversity changes due to mass mortality), population (retarded growth characteristics), individual (habitat attractive behavior), and molecular (adaptations to elevated concentrations of heavy metals, low pH, and elevated temperature). The present opinion paper evaluates the potential of shallow hydrothermal vents to be used as a templates for global change scenarios.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

IMAGE#1: MAP OF THE ANTARCTIC PENINSULA SHOWING EAGLE ISLAND

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IMAGE#2: NASA EARTH OBSERVATORY SHOWS ICE MELT ON EAGLE ISLAND 

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IMAGE#3: GEOLOGY OF ANTARCTICA 

 

IMAGE#4: MARTOS ETAL 2017: GEOTHERMAL HEAT FLUX MAP

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IMAGE#5: DZIADEK 2017: GEOTHERMAL HEAT FLUX MAP 

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IMAGE#6: FOEHN AND CHINOOK WINDS

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[LINK TO THE HOME PAGE OF THIS SITE]

RELATED POSTS: [LINK][LINK] [LINK]

 

 

THIS POST IS A CRITICAL REVIEW OF AN ONLINE ARTICLE [LINK] CLAIMING THAT A Heat Wave in Antarctica Has Melted 20% of an Island’s Snow in 9 Days . IT IS PRESENTED AS A SERIES OF CLAIMS MADE IN THE ARTICLE FOLLOWED BY RESPONSES TO THOSE CLAIMS.

 

TWO RELEVANT BIBLIOGRAPHIES ARE PROVIDED AT THE END OF THE POST. THE FIRST BIBLIOGRAPHY INCLUDES TEN STUDIES ON GEOTHERMAL FLUX DATA IN ANTARCTICA. THE SECOND BIBLIOGRAPHY INCLUDES EIGHT STUDIES ON FOEHN AND CHINOOK WIND WARMING EVENTS IN ANTARCTICA. 

 

CLAIM#1: Antarctic temperatures recently hit record highs twice in the space of one week. RESPONSE#1: These isolated temperature events were constrained both in space and time in a remote tip of the Antarctic Peninsula on specific days. They have no interpretation in terms of AGW climate change – a theory about the effect of fossil fuel emissions on long term warming trends in global mean temperature. In a related posts it is shown that a more rational interpretation of such isolated temperature events in a geologically active region is provided by the known geothermal heal fluxes in these locations [LINK]

CLAIM#2:  A heat wave melted around 20% of the snow of one of its islands, as illustrated by new NASA Earth Observatory images (Image#2 above). During the heat wave, around 4 inches of snow covering Eagle Island melted as well as the highest ever temperature recorded on the continent reaching 64.9 degrees Fahrenheit (18.3 degrees Celsius), the same as temperatures in Los Angeles on the same day.  RESPONSE#2: AGW climate change is a theory about a long term warming trend in global mean temperature. Isolated temperature events of this nature in a remote corner of Antarctica have no interpretation in this context and it has not been shown that the temperature events in the extreme North of the Antarctic Peninsula are a response to atmospheric forcing. The mean surface temperature of Antarctica does not show evidence of global warming [LINK] . A more likely source of the energy in such isolated events is geothermal heat particularly so when the location of the heat event is a geologically active area as seen in the geothermal heat flux maps in Image #4 and Image #5. Yet another possibility is the warming and snow melt effects of by Foehn and Chinook winds (Image#6) that are known to occur in this region [LINK] [LINK]

CLAIM#3: The images of Eagle Island, captured by NASA’s Landsat-8 satellite on February 4th and February 13th, reveal the startling difference nine days of record-breaking temperatures can make on the planet’s coldest continent. While the usually anomalous high temperatures are a cause for alarm, the picture of a snow-covered island transformed into one with melt-pools and exposed rocky terrain has researchers concerned about the effects climate change is having on the region. You see these kinds of melt events in Alaska and Greenland, but not usually in Antarctica. RESPONSE#3: Geothermal heat induced ice and snow melt is common in the geologically active areas of Antarctica such as the tip of the Antarctic Peninsula. Consider also that the assumed causation by global warming is not supported by the temperature data as shown in a related post [LINK] . The geothermal heat flux maps in Images 4&5 and Foehn and Chinook wind events  (Image#6) above provide a better explanation for such isolated and evanescent heat events than AGW global warming. These phenomena cannot be generalized across Antarctica because they are location specific and the the specific locations of these melt events coincide with known locations of geological activity.

CLAIM#4: Such dramatic snowmelt is the result of increased temperatures over a sustained period of time which is thought to be the result of overall global temperatures rising. However, other conditions also influenced the sudden heat wave in the Antarctic climate including unusually weak winds which prevented a warm surge moving southwards from Chile and penetrating the continent.  RESPONSE#4: As shown in a related post, there is no evidence of an AGW climate change warming trend in Antarctica [LINK] . As shown in a related post, [LINK] , West Antarctica, and particularly so the Antarctic Peninsula, is a geologically active area where geothermal heat from the West Antarctic Rift and the Marie Byrd Mantle Plume and Foehn and Chinook wind events  (Image#6) are more likely explanations of isolated and brief heat and melt events. Nearby to the events described is Deception Island where an extreme volcanic eruption had created a large hot spring lake now popular with tourists as seen in the image below.

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GEOTHERMAL HEAT FLUX BIBLIOGRAPHY

  1. Scambos, Ted A., et al. “The link between climate warming and break-up of ice shelves in the Antarctic Peninsula.” Journal of Glaciology 46.154 (2000): 516-530.  A review of in situ and remote-sensing data covering the ice shelves of the Antarctic Peninsula provides a series of characteristics closely associated with rapid shelf retreat: deeply embayed ice fronts; calving of myriad small elongate bergs in punctuated events; increasing flow speed; and the presence of melt ponds on the ice-shelf surface in the vicinity of the break-ups. As climate has warmed in the Antarctic Peninsula region, melt-season duration and the extent of ponding have increased. Most break-up events have occurred during longer melt seasons, suggesting that meltwater itself, not just warming, is responsible. Regions that show melting without pond formation are relatively unchanged. Melt ponds thus appear to be a robust harbinger of ice-shelf retreat. We use these observations to guide a model of ice-shelf flow and the effects of meltwater. Crevasses present in a region of surface ponding will likely fill to the brim with water. We hypothesize (building on Weertman (1973), Hughes (1983) and Van der Veen (1998)) that crevasse propagation by meltwater is the main mechanism by which ice shelves weaken and retreat. A thermodynamic finite-element model is used to evaluate ice flow and the strain field, and simple extensions of this model are used to investigate crack propagation by meltwater. The model results support the hypothesis.
  2. Convey, P., et al. “The flora of the South Sandwich Islands, with particular reference to the influence of geothermal heating.” Journal of Biogeography 27.6 (2000): 1279-1295.  Data obtained in 1997 are combined with updated records from the only previous survey (in 1964) to provide a baseline description of the flora of the archipelago, which currently includes 1 phanerogam, 38 mosses, 11 liverworts, 5 basidiomycete fungi, 41 lichenised fungi and 16 diatoms with, additionally, several taxa identified only to genus. Major elements of the moss and liverwort floras are composed of South American taxa (32% and 73%, respectively), with a further 45% of mosses having bipolar or cosmopolitan distributions. These two groups show low levels of Antarctic endemicity (11% and 18%, respectively). In contrast, 52% of lichens and 80% of basidiomycete fungi are endemic to the Antarctic. A further 36% of lichens are bipolar/cosmopolitan, with only 5% of South American origin. The flora of the South Sandwich Islands is clearly derived from those of other Antarctic zones. The flora of unheated ground is closely related to that of the maritime Antarctic, although with a very limited number of species represented. That of heated ground contains both maritime and sub‐Antarctic elements, confirming the importance of geothermal heating for successful colonisation of the latter group. The occurrence of several maritime Antarctic species only on heated ground confirms the extreme severity of the archipelago’s climate in comparison with well‐studied sites much further south in this biogeographical zone.
  3. Smith, RI Lewis. “The bryophyte flora of geothermal habitats on Deception Island, Antarctica.” The Journal of the Hattori Botanical Laboratory 97 (2005): 233-248.  Deception Island is one of the most volcanically active sites south of 60°S. Between 1967 and 1970 three major eruptions devastated large expanses of the landscape and its predominantly cryptogamic vegetation. Since 1970 extensive recolonisation has occurred on the more stable surfaces. Unheated ground supports several bryophyte and lichen communities typical of much of the maritime Antarctic, but geothermal habitats possess remarkable associations of bryophytes, many of the species being unknown or very rare elsewhere in the Antarctic. Nine geothermal sites were located and their vegetation investigated in detail. Communities associated with more transient sites have disappeared when the geothermal activity ceased. Mosses and liverworts occur to within a few centimetres of fumarole vents where temperatures reach 90-95℃, while temperatures within adjacent moss turf can reach 35-50℃ or more and remain consistently between 25 and 45℃. Most of the bryoflora has a Patagonian-Fuegian provenance and it is presumed that, unlike most species, the thermophiles are not pre-adapted to the Antarctic environment, being able to colonise only where the warm and humid conditions prevail.
  4. Vieira, Gonçalo, et al. “Geomorphological observations of permafrost and ground-ice degradation on Deception and Livingston Islands, Maritime Antarctica.” (2008): 1939-1844. The Antarctic Peninsula is experiencing one of the fastest increases in mean annual air temperatures (ca. 2.5oC in the last 50 years) on Earth. If the observed warming trend continues as indicated by climate models, the region could suffer widespread permafrost degradation. This paper presents field observations of geomorphological features linked to permafrost and ground-ice degradation at two study areas: northwest Hurd Peninsula (Livingston Island) and Deception Island along the Antarctic Peninsula. These observations include thermokarst features, debris flows, active-layer detachment slides, and rockfalls. The processes observed may be linked not only to an increase in temperature, but also to increased rainfall, which can trigger debris flows and other processes. On Deception Island some thermokarst (holes in the ground produced by the selective melting of permafrost)  features may be related to anomalous geothermal heat flux from volcanic activity.
  5. Mulvaney, Robert, et al. “Recent Antarctic Peninsula warming relative to Holocene climate and ice-shelf history.” Nature 489.7414 (2012): 141-144Rapid warming over the past 50 years on the Antarctic Peninsula is associated with the collapse of a number of ice shelves and accelerating glacier mass loss1,2,3,4,5,6,7. In contrast, warming has been comparatively modest over West Antarctica and significant changes have not been observed over most of East Antarctica8,9, suggesting that the ice-core palaeoclimate records available from these areas may not be representative of the climate history of the Antarctic Peninsula. Here we show that the Antarctic Peninsula experienced an early-Holocene warm period followed by stable temperatures, from about 9,200 to 2,500 years ago, that were similar to modern-day levels. Our temperature estimates are based on an ice-core record of deuterium variations from James Ross Island, off the northeastern tip of the Antarctic Peninsula. We find that the late-Holocene development of ice shelves near James Ross Island was coincident with pronounced cooling from 2,500 to 600 years ago. This cooling was part of a millennial-scale climate excursion with opposing anomalies on the eastern and western sides of the Antarctic Peninsula. Although warming of the northeastern Antarctic Peninsula began around 600 years ago, the high rate of warming over the past century is unusual (but not unprecedented) in the context of natural climate variability over the past two millennia. The connection shown here between past temperature and ice-shelf stability suggests that warming for several centuries rendered ice shelves on the northeastern Antarctic Peninsula vulnerable to collapse. Continued warming to temperatures that now exceed the stable conditions of most of the Holocene epoch is likely to cause ice-shelf instability to encroach farther southward along the Antarctic Peninsula.
  6. Fraser, Ceridwen I., et al. “Geothermal activity helps life survive glacial cycles.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 111.15 (2014): 5634-5639.  The evolution and maintenance of diversity through cycles of past climate change have hinged largely on the availability of refugia (places where life can survive through a period of unfavorable conditions such as glaciation). Geothermal refugia may have been particularly important for survival through past glaciations. Our spatial modeling of Antarctic biodiversity indicates that some terrestrial groups likely survived throughout intense glacial cycles on ice-free land or in sub-ice caves associated with areas of geothermal activity, from which recolonization of the rest of the continent took place. These results provide unexpected insights into the responses of various species to past climate change and the importance of geothermal regions in promoting biodiversity. Furthermore, they indicate the likely locations of biodiversity “hotspots” in Antarctica, suggesting a critical focus for future conservation efforts.
  7. An, Meijian, et al. “Temperature, lithosphere‐asthenosphere boundary, and heat flux beneath the Antarctic Plate inferred from seismic velocities.” Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth 120.12 (2015): 8720-8742.  We estimate the upper mantle temperature of the Antarctic Plate based on the thermoelastic properties of mantle minerals and S velocities using a new 3‐D shear velocity model, AN1‐S. Crustal temperatures and surface heat fluxes are then calculated from the upper mantle temperature assuming steady state thermal conduction. The temperature at the top of the asthenosphere beneath the oceanic region and West Antarctica is higher than the dry mantle solidus, indicating the presence of melt. From the temperature values, we generate depth maps of the lithosphere‐asthenosphere boundary and the Curie temperature isotherm. The maps show that East Antarctica has a thick lithosphere similar to that of other stable cratons, with the thickest lithosphere (~250 km) between Domes A and C. The thin crust and lithosphere beneath West Antarctica are similar to those of modern subduction‐related rift systems in East Asia. A cold region beneath the Antarctic Peninsula is similar in spatial extent to that of a flat‐subducted slab beneath the southern Andes, indicating a possible remnant of the Phoenix Plate, which was subducted prior to 10 Ma. The oceanic lithosphere generally thickens with increasing age, and the age‐thickness correlation depends on the spreading rate of the ridge that formed the lithosphere. Significant flattening of the age‐thickness curves is not observed for the mature oceanic lithosphere of the Antarctic Plate.
  8. Dziadek, Ricarda, et al. “Geothermal heat flux in the Amundsen Sea sector of West Antarctica: New insights from temperature measurements, depth to the bottom of the magnetic source estimation, and thermal modeling.” Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems 18.7 (2017): 2657-2672[FULL TEXT]  Focused research on the Pine Island and Thwaites glaciers, which drain the West Antarctic Ice Shelf (WAIS) into the Amundsen Sea Embayment (ASE), revealed strong signs of instability in recent decades that result from variety of reasons, such as inflow of warmer ocean currents and reverse bedrock topography, and has been established as the Marine Ice Sheet Instability hypothesis. Geothermal heat flux (GHF) is a poorly constrained parameter in Antarctica and suspected to affect basal conditions of ice sheets, i.e., basal melting and subglacial hydrology. Thermomechanical models demonstrate the influential boundary condition of geothermal heat flux for (paleo) ice sheet stability. Due to a complex tectonic and magmatic history of West Antarctica, the region is suspected to exhibit strong heterogeneous geothermal heat flux variations. We present an approach to investigate ranges of realistic heat fluxes in the ASE by different methods, discuss direct observations, and 3‐D numerical models that incorporate boundary conditions derived from various geophysical studies, including our new Depth to the Bottom of the Magnetic Source (DBMS) estimates. Our in situ temperature measurements at 26 sites in the ASE more than triples the number of direct GHF observations in West Antarctica. We demonstrate by our numerical 3‐D models that GHF spatially varies from 68 up to 110 mW m−2.
  9. Martos, Yasmina M., et al. “Heat flux distribution of Antarctica unveiled.” Geophysical Research Letters 44.22 (2017): 11-417[FULL TEXT]  Antarctica is the largest reservoir of ice on Earth. Understanding its ice sheet dynamics is crucial to unraveling past global climate change and making robust climatic and sea level predictions. Of the basic parameters that shape and control ice flow, the most poorly known is geothermal heat flux. Direct observations of heat flux are difficult to obtain in Antarctica, and until now continent‐wide heat flux maps have only been derived from low‐resolution satellite magnetic and seismological data. We present a high‐resolution heat flux map and associated uncertainty derived from spectral analysis of the most advanced continental compilation of airborne magnetic data. Small‐scale spatial variability and features consistent with known geology are better reproduced than in previous models, between 36% and 50%. Our high‐resolution heat flux map and its uncertainty distribution provide an important new boundary condition to be used in studies on future subglacial hydrology, ice sheet dynamics, and sea level change.
  10. Burton‐Johnson, Alex, et al. “A new heat flux model for the Antarctic Peninsula incorporating spatially variable upper crustal radiogenic heat production.” Geophysical Research Letters 44.11 (2017): 5436-5446.  A new method for modeling heat flux shows that the upper crust contributes up to 70% of the Antarctic Peninsula’s subglacial heat flux and that heat flux values are more variable at smaller spatial resolutions than geophysical methods can resolve. Results indicate a higher heat flux on the east and south of the Peninsula (mean 81 mW m−2) where silicic rocks predominate, than on the west and north (mean 67 mW m−2) where volcanic arc and quartzose sediments are dominant. While the data supports the contribution of heat‐producing element‐enriched granitic rocks to high heat flux values, sedimentary rocks can be of comparative importance dependent on their provenance and petrography. Models of subglacial heat flux must utilize a heterogeneous upper crust with variable radioactive heat production if they are to accurately predict basal conditions of the ice sheet. Our new methodology and data set facilitate improved numerical model simulations of ice sheet dynamics.
     

 

FOEHN AND CHINOOK WINDS

  1. Nylen, Thomas H., Andrew G. Fountain, and Peter T. Doran. “Climatology of katabatic winds in the McMurdo dry valleys, southern Victoria Land, Antarctica.” Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 109.D3 (2004)Katabatic winds dramatically affect the climate of the McMurdo dry valleys, Antarctica. Winter wind events can increase local air temperatures by 30°C. The frequency of katabatic winds largely controls winter (June to August) temperatures, increasing 1°C per 1% increase in katabatic frequency, and it overwhelms the effect of topographic elevation (lapse rate). Summer katabatic winds are important, but their influence on summer temperature is less. The spatial distribution of katabatic winds varies significantly. Winter events increase by 14% for every 10 km up valley toward the ice sheet, and summer events increase by 3%. The spatial distribution of katabatic frequency seems to be partly controlled by inversions. The relatively slow propagation speed of a katabatic front compared to its wind speed suggests a highly turbulent flow. The apparent wind skip (down‐valley stations can be affected before up‐valley ones) may be caused by flow deflection in the complex topography and by flow over inversions, which eventually break down. A strong return flow occurs at down‐valley stations prior to onset of the katabatic winds and after they dissipate. Although the onset and termination of the katabatic winds are typically abrupt, elevated air temperatures remain for days afterward. We estimate that current frequencies of katabatic winds increase annual average temperatures by 0.7° to 2.2°C, depending on location. Seasonally, they increase (decrease) winter average temperatures (relative humidity) by 0.8° to 4.2° (−1.8 to −8.5%) and summer temperatures by 0.1° to 0.4°C (−0.9% to −4.1%). Long‐term changes of dry valley air temperatures cannot be understood without knowledge of changes in katabatic winds.
  2. Walker, Virginia K., Gerald R. Palmer, and Gerrit Voordouw. “Freeze-thaw tolerance and clues to the winter survival of a soil community.” Appl. Environ. Microbiol. 72.3 (2006): 1784-1792.  Although efforts have been made to sample microorganisms from polar regions and to investigate a few of the properties that facilitate survival at freezing or subzero temperatures, soil communities that overwinter in areas exposed to alternate freezing and thawing caused by Foehn or Chinook winds have been largely overlooked. We designed and constructed a cryocycler to automatically subject soil cultures to alternating freeze-thaw cycles. After 48 freeze-thaw cycles, control Escherichia coli and Pseudomonas chlororaphis isolates were no longer viable. Mixed cultures derived from soil samples collected from a Chinook zone showed that the population complexity and viability were reduced after 48 cycles. However, when bacteria that were still viable after the freeze-thaw treatments were used to obtain selected cultures, these cultures proved to be >1,000-fold more freeze-thaw tolerant than the original consortium. Single-colony isolates obtained from survivors after an additional 48 freeze-thaw cycles were putatively identified by 16S RNA gene fragment sequencing. Five different genera were recognized, and one of the cultures, Chryseobacterium sp. strain C14, inhibited ice recrystallization, a property characteristic of antifreeze proteins that prevents the growth of large, potentially damaging ice crystals at temperatures close to the melting temperature. This strain was also notable since cell-free medium derived from cultures of it appeared to enhance the multiple freeze-thaw survival of another isolate, Enterococcus sp. strain C8. The results of this study and the development of a cryocycler should allow further investigations into the biochemical and soil community adaptations to the rigors of a Chinook environment.
  3. Speirs, Johanna C., et al. “Foehn winds in the McMurdo Dry Valleys, Antarctica: The origin of extreme warming events.” Journal of Climate 23.13 (2010): 3577-3598 Foehn winds resulting from topographic modification of airflow in the lee of mountain barriers are frequently experienced in the McMurdo Dry Valleys (MDVs) of Antarctica. Strong foehn winds in the MDVs cause dramatic warming at onset and have significant effects on landscape forming processes; however, no detailed scientific investigation of foehn in the MDVs has been conducted. As a result, they are often misinterpreted as adiabatically warmed katabatic winds draining from the polar plateau. Herein observations from surface weather stations and numerical model output from the Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System (AMPS) during foehn events in the MDVs are presented. Results show that foehn winds in the MDVs are caused by topographic modification of south-southwesterly airflow, which is channeled into the valleys from higher levels. Modeling of a winter foehn event identifies mountain wave activity similar to that associated with midlatitude foehn winds. These events are found to be caused by strong pressure gradients over the mountain ranges of the MDVs related to synoptic-scale cyclones positioned off the coast of Marie Byrd Land. Analysis of meteorological records for 2006 and 2007 finds an increase of 10% in the frequency of foehn events in 2007 compared to 2006, which corresponds to stronger pressure gradients in the Ross Sea region. It is postulated that the intra- and interannual frequency and intensity of foehn events in the MDVs may therefore vary in response to the position and frequency of cyclones in the Ross Sea region.
  4. Steinhoff, Daniel Frederick. Dynamics and Variability of Foehn Winds in the McMurdo Dry Valleys Antarctica. Diss. The Ohio State University, 2011.  The McMurdo Dry Valleys (“MDVs”) are the largest ice-free region in Antarctica, featuring perennially ice-covered lakes that are fed by ephemeral melt streams in the summer. The MDVs have been an NSF-funded Long-Term Ecological Research (LTER) site since 1993, and LTER research has shown that the hydrology and biology of the MDVs are extremely sensitive to small climatic fluctuations, especially during summer when temperatures episodically rise above freezing. However, the atmospheric processes that control MDVs summer climate, namely the westerly foehn and easterly sea-breeze regimes, are not well understood. The goals of this study are to (i) produce a coherent physical mechanism for the development and spatial extent of foehn winds in the MDVs, and (ii) determine aspects of large-scale climate variability responsible for intraseasonal and interannual differences in MDVs temperature. Polar WRF simulations are run for a prominent foehn case study at 500 m horizontal grid spacing to study the mesoscale components of foehn events, and 15 summers at 2 km horizontal grid spacing to analyze event and temporal variability. The Polar WRF simulations have been tailored for use in the MDVs through modifications to the input soil conditions, snow cover, land use, and sea ice. An objective foehn identification method is used to identify and categorize events, as well as validate the model against LTER AWS observations. The MDVs foehn mechanism consists of a gap wind through a topographic constriction south of the MDVs, forced by pressure differences on each side of the gap and typically set up by cyclonic flow over the Ross and Amundsen Seas. Significant mountain wave activity over the gap modulates the flow response over the MDVs themselves, and pressure-driven channeling drives foehn flow down-valley. During strongly forced events, mass accumulation east of the MDVs from flow around Ross Island is responsible for easterly intrusions, and not a thermally forced sea breeze as previously thought. A variety of ambient flow directions and associated synoptic-scale patterns can result in MDVs foehn, but adequate forcing is necessary to activate the foehn mechanism. The warmest foehn events are associated with amplified circulation patterns that are not associated with particular interannual modes of variability, but instead related to intraseasonal variability forced by the extratropical response to a stagnant MJO. Implications of the findings upon current MDVs paleoclimate theories on the existence of huge melt lakes at the LGM are also presented.
  5. Elvidge, Andrew. Polar föhn winds and warming over the Larsen C Ice Shelf, Antarctica. Diss. University of East Anglia, 2013. Recent hypotheses that the foehn effect is partly responsible for warming to the east of the Antarctic Peninsula (AP) and enhanced melt rates on the Larsen C Ice Shelf are supported in a study combining the analysis of observational and high resolution model data. Leeside warming and drying during foehn events is observed in new aircraft, radiosonde and automatic weather station data and simulated by the UK Met Office Unified Model at ~1.5 km grid spacing (MetUM 1.5 km). Three contrasting cases are investigated. In Case A relatively weak southwesterly flow induces a nonlinear foehn event. Strongly accelerated flow above and a hydraulic jump immediately downwind of the lee slopes lead to high amplitude warming in the immediate lee of the AP, downwind of which the warming effect diminishes rapidly due to the upward ‘rebound’ of the foehn flow. Case C defines a relatively linear case associated with strong northwesterly winds. The lack of a hydraulic jump enables foehn flow to flood across the entire ice shelf at low levels. Melt rates are high due to a combination of large radiative heat flux, due to dry, clear leeside conditions, and sensible heat flux downward from the warm, well-mixed foehn flow. Climatological work suggests that such strong northwesterly cases are often responsible for high Larsen C melt rates. Case B describes a weak, relatively non-linear foehn event associated with insignificant daytime melt rates.

    Previously unknown jets – named polar foehn jets – emanating from the mouths of leeside inlets are identified as a type of gap flow. They are cool and moist relative to adjacent calmer regions, due to lower-altitude upwind source regions, and are characterised by larger turbulent heat fluxes both within the air column and at the surface. The relative importance of the three mechanisms deemed to induce leeside foehn warming (isentropic drawdown, latent heating and sensible heating) are quantified using a novel method analysing back trajectories and MetUM 1.5 km model output. It is shown that, depending on the linearity of the flow regime and the humidity of the air mass, each mechanism can dominate. This implies that there is no dominant foehn warming mechanism, contrary to the conclusions of previous work.

  6. Steinhoff, Daniel F., David H. Bromwich, and Andrew Monaghan. “Dynamics of the foehn mechanism in the McMurdo Dry Valleys of Antarctica from Polar WRF.” Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 139.675 (2013): 1615-1631.  Foehn events over the McMurdo Dry Valleys (MDVs), the largest ice‐free region of Antarctica, promote glacial melt that supports biological activity in the lakes, streams, rocks and soils. Although MDVs foehn events are known to depend upon the synoptic‐scale circulation, the physical processes responsible for foehn events are unknown. A polar‐optimized version of the Weather Research and Forecasting model (Polar WRF) is used for a case study of a representative summer foehn event from 29 December 2006 to 1 January 2007 in order to identify and explain the MDVs foehn mechanism. Pressure differences across an elevated mountain gap upstream of the MDVs provide forcing for southerly flow into the western, upvalley entrance of the MDVs. Complex terrain over the elevated gap and the MDVs leads to mountain wave effects such as leeside acceleration, hydraulic jumps, wave breaking and critical layers. These mountain wave effects depend on the ambient (geostrophic) wind direction. Pressure‐driven channelling then brings the warm, dry foehn air downvalley to eastern MDV sites. Brief easterly intrusions of maritime air into the eastern MDVs during foehn events previously have been attributed to either a sea‐breeze effect in summer or local cold‐pooling effects in winter. In this particular case, the easterly intrusions result from blocking effects of nearby Ross Island and the adjacent Antarctic coast. Temperature variability during the summer foehn event, which is important for meltwater production and biological activity when it exceeds 0°C, primarily depends on the source airmass rather than differences in foehn dynamics.
  7. Cape, M. R., et al. “Foehn winds link climate‐driven warming to ice shelf evolution in Antarctica.” Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 120.21 (2015): 11-037Rapid warming of the Antarctic Peninsula over the past several decades has led to extensive surface melting on its eastern side, and the disintegration of the Prince Gustav, Larsen A, and Larsen B ice shelves. The warming trend has been attributed to strengthening of circumpolar westerlies resulting from a positive trend in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM), which is thought to promote more frequent warm, dry, downsloping foehn winds along the lee, or eastern side, of the peninsula. We examined variability in foehn frequency and its relationship to temperature and patterns of synoptic‐scale circulation using a multidecadal meteorological record from the Argentine station Matienzo, located between the Larsen A and B embayments. This record was further augmented with a network of six weather stations installed under the U.S. NSF LARsen Ice Shelf System, Antarctica, project. Significant warming was observed in all seasons at Matienzo, with the largest seasonal increase occurring in austral winter (+3.71°C between 1962–1972 and 1999–2010). Frequency and duration of foehn events were found to strongly influence regional temperature variability over hourly to seasonal time scales. Surface temperature and foehn winds were also sensitive to climate variability, with both variables exhibiting strong, positive correlations with the SAM index. Concomitant positive trends in foehn frequency, temperature, and SAM are present during austral summer, with sustained foehn events consistently associated with surface melting across the ice sheet and ice shelves. These observations support the notion that increased foehn frequency played a critical role in precipitating the collapse of the Larsen B ice shelf.
  8. Elvidge, Andrew D., and Ian A. Renfrew. “The causes of foehn warming in the lee of mountains.” Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 97.3 (2016): 455-466.  The foehn effect is well known as the warming, drying, and cloud clearance experienced on the lee side of mountain ranges during “flow over” conditions. Foehn flows were first described more than a century ago when two mechanisms for this warming effect were postulated: an isentropic drawdown mechanism, where potentially warmer air from aloft is brought down adiabatically, and a latent heating and precipitation mechanism, where air cools less on ascent—owing to condensation and latent heat release—than on its dry descent on the lee side. Here, for the first time, the direct quantitative contribution of these and other foehn warming mechanisms is shown. The results suggest a new paradigm is required after it is demonstrated that a third mechanism, mechanical mixing of the foehn flow by turbulence, is significant. In fact, depending on the flow dynamics, any of the three warming mechanisms can dominate. A novel Lagrangian heat budget model, back trajectories, high-resolution numerical model output, and aircraft observations are all employed. The study focuses on a unique natural laboratory—one that allows unambiguous quantification of the leeside warming—namely, the Antarctic Peninsula and Larsen C Ice Shelf. The demonstration that three foehn warming mechanisms are important has ramifications for weather forecasting in mountainous areas and associated hazards such as ice shelf melt and wildfires.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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THIS POST IS A CRITICAL REVIEW OF THE “NET ZERO CLIMATE ACTION” PROCEDURE AS DESCRIBED IN THE SCIENCE OF CARBON BUDGETS DOCUMENT PUBLISHED BY AN ORGANIZATION CALLED “ENERGY AND CLIMATE INTELLIGENCE UNIT” (ECIU). THE REVIEW IS PRESENTED AS A SERIES OF CLAIMS MADE IN THE ECIU DOCUMENT WITH EACH CLAIM FOLLOWED BY A RESPONSE. THE FULL TEXT OF THE ECIU REPORT IS INCLUDED HERE AS A PDF DOCUMENT  NETZEROPDF

 

 

CLAIM: Net zero means that EMISSIONS are balanced by ABSORPTION of an equivalent amount from the atmosphere. Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS) technology exists but it is not used because of cost and technical considerations. Therefore, “net” means net of natural photosynthesis, specifically additional natural photosynthesis that can be claimed in terms of specific action taken by humans (so that it can be described as human activity) in terms of things like reforestation and afforestation where the CO2 removal time span is in the order of 50 to 100 years. In countries where incremental afforestation and reforestation opportunities are limited this activity can be carried out overseas particularly in poor third world countries with poor forest management. A more lucrative option for claiming ownership  of CO2 removal by way of nature’s photosynthesis mechanism is the so called “blue carbon” found in shallow coastal waters in the equatorial region where underwater plants such as seagrass and mangrove remove CO2 from the atmosphere by photosynthesis and sequester the carbon for thousands of years [LINK] . The relevant issue in this regard is the degradation of coastal ecosystems and their blue carbon sequestration due to human activity [RELATED POST ON BLUE CARBON] . For this reason, additional carbon sequestration that can be attributed to action taken by humans to reduce coastal ecosystem degradation due to human activity can be claimed as CO2 removal in net emission accounting.

RESPONSE:  AGW climate change is a theory not about how changes in the carbon cycle change the rate of warming. Such changes are natural and predate the Industrial Revolution and they cannot be described as effects of the industrial economy. AGW climate change theory is about a warming trend attributed to the industrial economy and described as a perturbation of the carbon cycle by external carbon dug up by humans from under the ground where it had been sequestered from the carbon cycle for millions of years such that the external carbon is not part of the current account of the carbon cycle.

It is the injection of this external carbon by humans into the carbon cycle and the climate system that is identified by AGW climate change theory as the cause of the current warming. The carbon emission accounting for net emissions where carbon cycle flows and external artificial carbon flows are combined in simple addition and subtraction accounting is conceptually and mathematically flawed. The conceptual flaw is described above. The mathematical flaw is described in some detail a related post [LINK] .

Briefly, the issue is that carbon cycle flows are an order of magnitude larger than the fossil fuel emissions of humans but they cannot be directly measured. They must therefore be inferred. This is why the estimation of carbon cycle flows contains large uncertainties. It is shown in the related post [LINK]  that when these uncertainties are included in the flow accounting, the relatively smaller fossil fuel emissions cannot be detected because the flow account balances with and without fossil fuel emissions within the statistical range implied by the uncertainty in carbon cycle flows.

The implication of this result for “net zero climate action” strategies is that the accounting reduction in carbon cycle emissions must be shown to be statistically significant when the uncertainty in the relevant carbon cycle flows is taken into account.

In view of the result that the whole of the fossil fuel emissions is not detectable net of uncertainties in carbon cycle flows, it is highly unlikely that smaller changes to the carbon cycle that are assumed reduce net emissions will be found to be statistically significant when uncertainties are included in the accounting. In view of the arguments presented above, net zero climate action strategies, that is fossil fuel emissions net of projected reductions in carbon cycle flows, cannot be assumed to be less than fossil fuel emissions until it can be shown that the difference is statistically detectable net of uncertainties in carbon cycle flows. This important detail of net zero climate action strategies is missing from the flow accounting used in the net zero computation.

 

CLAIMThe science of ‘carbon budgets: Climate science is clear that to a close approximation, the eventual extent of global warming is proportional to the total amount of carbon dioxide that human activities add to the atmosphere.

 

RESPONSE: This claim is a reference to the proportionality between mean global surface temperature and cumulative emissions described by Damon Matthews and others since 2009. The strong correlation between temperature and cumulative emissions appears to support the validity of the regression coefficient for temperature against cumulative emissions that shows that cumulative emissions drive warming at the rate of somewhere between 1C and 2.5C of warming per teratonne of cumulative emissions. This coefficient is called the TCRE or Transient Climate Response to Cumulative Emissions. Climate action plans in terms of carbon budgets is computed based on the TCRE metric. Net zero climate action plans are designed in terms of the TCRE.

Yet, as shown in a related post [LINK] the strong proportionality between temperature and cumulative emissions found by climate scientists is a spurious correlation that has no interpretation in terms of phenomena in the real world. This implies that carbon budgets derived from the TCRE also have no interpretation in the real world [LINK] . It is this statistical flaw in the TCRE and not complexities of Earth System Models that explains the Remaining Carbon Budget problem in climate science [LINK]  {see also [LINK] }. The implication for Net Zero climate action plans is that the the net zero strategies that rely on the TCRE are illusory and the creation of a spurious correlation.

 

IN CONCLUSION, THE ANSWER TO THE QUESTION AT THE TOP OF THIS POST, “WHAT DOES NET ZERO MEAN?” IS THAT IT HAS NO INTERPRETATION IN TERMS OF CLIMATE ACTION AGAINST AGW CLIMATE CHANGE BECAUSE OF STATISTICAL WEAKNESSES IN ITS CONSTRUCTION THAT DOES NOT INCLUDE KNOWN LARGE UNCERTAINTIES IN CARBON CYCLE FLOWS AND THAT RELIES ON A SPURIOUS CORRELATION IN TERMS OF THE TCRE METRIC USED TO RELATE WARMING TO CUMULATIVE EMISSIONS. 

 

 

 

 

 

Other parts parts of the ECIU document are included below for reference: 

Net zero: why is it necessary? A number of countries including the UK are making commitments to move to a net zero emissions economy. This is in response to climate science showing that in order to halt climate change, carbon emissions have to stop – reducing them is not sufficient. ‘Net zero’ means that any emissions are balanced by absorbing an equivalent amount from the atmosphere. In order to meet the global warming target in the Paris Agreement, global carbon emissions should reach net zero around mid-century. For developed nations such as the UK, the date may need to be earlier. Some have already set such dates.

The science of ‘carbon budgets: Climate science is clear that to a close approximation, the eventual extent of global warming is proportional to the total amount of carbon dioxide that human activities add to the atmosphere. So, in order to stabilise climate change, CO2 emissions need to fall to zero. The longer it takes to do so, the more the climate will change. Emissions of other greenhouse gases also need to be constrained. In the Paris Agreement, governments agreed to keep global warming ‘well below’ 2 degrees Celsius, and to ‘make efforts’ to keep it below 1.5ºC. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released a report in October 2018 on the 1.5ºC target; it concluded that global emissions need to reach net zero around mid-century to give a reasonable chance of limiting warming to 1.5ºC.

Why ‘net zero’?

In many sectors of the economy, technologies exist that can bring emissions to zero. In electricity, it can be done using renewable and nuclear generation. A transport system that runs on electricity or hydrogen, well-insulated homes and industrial processes based on electricity rather than gas can all help to bring sectoral emissions to absolute zero.

However, in industries such as aviation the technological options are limited; in agriculture too it is highly unlikely that emissions will be brought to zero. Therefore some emissions from these sectors will likely remain; and in order to offset these, an equivalent amount of CO2 will need to be taken out of the atmosphere – negative emissions. Thus the target becomes ‘net zero’ for the economy as a whole. The term ‘carbon neutrality’ is also used.

Sometimes a net zero target is expressed in terms of greenhouse gas emissions overall, sometimes of CO2 only. The UK Climate Change Act now expresses its net zero emissions target by 2050 in terms of greenhouse gases overall.

Negative emissions

The only greenhouse gas that can easily be absorbed from the atmosphere is carbon dioxide. There are two basic approaches to extracting it: by stimulating nature to absorb more, and by building technology that does the job.

Reforestation
Increasing forest cover can help absorb carbon dioxide emissions. Image: Jon Sullivan, creative commons licence
Plants absorb CO2 as they grow, through photosynthesis. Therefore, all other things being equal, having more plants growing, or having plants growing faster, will remove more from the atmosphere. Two of the easiest and most effective approaches for negative emissions, then, are afforestation – planting more forest – and reforestation – replacing forest that has been lost or thinned. Technical options include BioEnergy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS) (see our Negative Emissions briefing.)

Who is moving to net zero?

A number of countries have already set targets, or committed to do so, for reaching net zero emissions on timescales compatible with the Paris Agreement temperature goals. They include the UK, France, Spain, Denmark, Portugal, New Zealand, Chile, Costa Rica (2050), Sweden (2045), Iceland (2040), Finland (2035) and Norway (2030). The tiny Himalayan Kingdom of Bhutan and the most forested country on earth, Suriname, are already carbon-negative – they absorb more CO2 than they emit.

In addition, the European Union recently agreed measures that are likely to result in the bloc adopting a net zero target by 2050 at the latest.

The principle that rich nations should lead on climate change is enshrined in the UN climate convention that dates back to 1992, and was reconfirmed in the Paris Agreement. Therefore, if the science says ‘global net zero by mid-century’, there is a strong moral case for developed countries adopting an earlier date.

So far, the UK, France, Sweden and Norway have enshrined their net zero targets in national law. Other nations including Spain, Denmark, Chile and New Zealand are looking to do so.

Interim Minister of State for Energy and Clean Growth Chris Skidmore
Chris Skidmore, Interim Minister of State for Energy and Clean Growth, signs legislation to commit the UK to a legally binding target of net zero emissions by 2050. Image: Gov.uk
In the UK

Immediately after the IPCC published its Special Report on 1.5°C in October 2018, the governments of the UK, Scotland and Wales asked its official advisers, the Committee on Climate Change (CCC), to provide advice on the UK and Devolved Administrations’ long-term targets for greenhouse gas emissions.

The CCC had previously indicated that the UK should be aiming for net zero emissions by 2045-2050 in order to be compatible with the 1.5ºC Paris Agreement goal.

The CCC delivered its advice in May 2019. Its high-level recommendations were:

For the UK, a new target: net-zero greenhouse gases by 2050 (up from the existing emissions reductions target of 80% from 1990 levels by 2050);
For Scotland, a net-zero date of 2045, ‘reflecting Scotland’s greater relative capacity to remove emissions than the UK as a whole’;
For Wales, a 95% reduction in greenhouse gases by 2050, reflecting it having ‘less opportunity for CO2 storage and relatively high agricultural emissions that are hard to reduce’.
The governments of Wales and Scotland swiftly accepted the CCC’s advice, and on 12 June 2019, the UK government laid a statutory instrument to amend the 80% target in the Climate Change Act 2008. Just over two weeks later, the new net zero target (100% from 1990 levels by 2050) was formally signed into law.

Only a matter of days before France could complete the feat, the UK had pipped them to it and become the first G7 country to legislate for net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050.

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THIS POST IS A CRITICAL REVIEW OF A YOUTUBE LECTURE [LINK TO YOUTUBE VIDEO]  ON CLIMATE CHANGE BY CLIMATE SCIENTIST MICHAEL MANN. IT IS PRESENTED IN TWO PARTS. PART-1 IS A TRANSCRIPT OF THE LECTURE. PART-2 IS A CRITICAL COMMENTARY ON CLAIMS MADE IN THE LECTURE.

 

 

PART-1: TRANSCRIPT OF THE LECTURE

We human beings, homo sapiens, have been on this planet for a tiny fraction of the full history of life on earth. We are unlike other species in that we are able to have a global impact on our environment through our activities. We are now within this era known as the Anthropocene where human beings have sort of taken over, taken the reins from geological processes and natural processes in being the primary driver of changes in the earth system. And certainly the burning of fossil fuels and climate change is one primary example of that.

My name is Michael Mann. I am a professor at Penn State University and a climate researcher. In this ??mook?? I am going to lay down the fundamental scientific principles behind climate change and global warming. We need to understand the science in order to solve the societal, environmental, and economic problems that climate change is bringing. bandicam 2020-02-24 14-27-39-516

We begin with the principles of atmospheric science. We will talk about how climate data are collected, the trends that these data show, and how do we look for signals of climate change in the data. We’ll learn how to do basic computations and view theoretical models of the climate system to address questions about future climate change.

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Finally we will discuss the impacts that climate change may have on the social, cultural, economic, urban, and other human systems. The science of climate change impacts tells us that once we warm the planet beyond about 2C relative to pre-industrial times, we are likely to see most damaging and potentially irreversible climate change. 2C is probably a line that we don’t want to cross.

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I am hoping that this course will help arm others with information and knowledge and resources that they can use down in the trenches as we all fight this collective battle to preserve our planet for future generations.

 

 

 

PART-2: CRITICAL COMMENTARY

CLAIM: We are now in a geological epoch called the Anthropocene wherein humans have taken over from geological forces and humans are now the primary force that is reshaping the planet. RESPONSE: The crust of the planet consisting of land, ocean, and atmosphere where we have things like climate, climate change and  the carbon cycle and carbon life forms like plants, trees, animals, humans, fish, and whales and stuff like that, is 0.3% of the planet containing 0.2% of the planet’s carbon. The other 99.7% of the planet and 99.8% of the carbon is down in the mantle and core. This is the source of the energy and immense power of the planet’s geological forces that do things like plate tectonics, volcanism, mantle plumes, and rifts that transfer energy and carbon from the 99.7% of the planet to the 0.3% of the planet where we have climate. Life on the 0.3% is made from the little bits of carbon that oozes out of the 99.7% . It is true that since the Industrial Revolution we humans have been digging up some of the minute portions of the planet’s carbon found in the crust of the planet and burning it for energy but that does not make us the new geological force nor does it place the fate of the planet in our hands. The total cumulative carbon emissions of the industrial economy of humans since pre-industrial times is estimated to be 102 billion tonnes, less than 0.000001% of  the of carbon in the mantle. AGW climate change does not have a planetary interpretation. The yearning of climate science for a planetary relevance of AGW climate change has no basis. It is an extreme form of the atmosphere bias of climate science and an irrational form of climate activism to describe the planet’s geological forces in terms of the carbon emissions of the industrial economy of humans.

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CLAIM: … and how do we look for signals of climate change in the data.

RESPONSE: Looking for signals of climate change in the data is a form of circular reasoning that presumes the existence of such signals and imposes a bias into the research methodology. In objective and unbiased scientific inquiry the data analysis must be free of predetermined assumptions about the findings. The admission by a high profile climate scientist to this kind of bias in climate research methodology raises serious questions about the credibility and the findings of climate science research.

CLAIM: The science of climate change impacts tells us that once we warm the planet beyond about 2C relative to pre-industrial times, we are likely to see most damaging and potentially irreversible climate change. 2C is probably a line that we con’t want to cross.  RESPONSE: The determination that a warming of 2C above pre-industrial will create catastrophic climate change impacts in the form of irreversible climate change such that 2C is a line that we must not cross, is dated. It derives from an IPCC report published in 2015. Since then the IPCC special report of 2018 was published and it says that the science says that the line that we must not cross to avoid catastrophic and irreversible climate change is 1.5C. Prior to the 2C determination of 2015, there was the IPCC report published in 2013 and there the science of climate science had determined that the line that we must not cross to avoid catastrophic and irreversible climate change is 3C. Prior to 2013, the IPCC 2007 report had issued a similar warning which said that warming must not be allowed to exceed 4C above pre-industrial to avoid catastrophic impacts and irreversible climate change. And prior to that, in 2001 the science of climate science told us that warming since pre-industrial must not be allowed to exceed 5C in order to avoid catastrophic consequences and irreversible climate change.

An additional consideration is that the reference temperature described as pre-industrial is also an unknown because there is some confusion about when AGW climate change began. In 2001, the IPCC report said it was the year 1750 but in the 2015 report it says the reference pre-industrial year was 1850. The NASA website says the human caused anthropogenic global warming began in 1950  [LINK]  and climate scientist Peter Cox used computer models to determine that human caused warming began in the 1970s  [LINK]. The world’s first AGW climate change paper was Callendar 1938 [LINK]  where we read that human caused global warming began in 1900. The extreme state of confusion in the matter of when human caused global warming began and therefore exactly what the “pre-industrial” reference temperature is and how much warming above that reference temperature we can tolerate before catastrophic irreversible climate change sets in does not indicate that climate scientists understand the current warming trend well enough to lecture us about the details of a theory and its warming targets of which they themselves appear to be grossly unsure. Yet this is the basis of the demand that the world must overhaul its energy infrastructure “to save the planet” in the Anthropocene [LINK]  .

geologic-epochs