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Archive for February 2019












  1. Humans burn fossil fuels and release carbon dioxide (CO2) into the atmosphere. This causes the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration to rise. This process is explained in two related posts [LINK] [LINK] .
  2. The more CO2 there is in the atmosphere, the more heat it can trap, and the more heat it traps, the warmer the surface of the earth gets. This is called climate sensitivity and it is the fundamental force that drives anthropogenic global warming as explained in these related posts [LINK] [LINK] .
  3. A direct relationship that shows how surface temperature responds to fossil fuel emissions has been found by climate scientists. It is called the Transient Climate Response to Cumulative Emissions or TCRE for short. This strong proportionality leaves no doubt that human emissions are causing the observed warming of our planet as explained in these related posts [LINK] [LINK] [LINK] .
  4. The TCRE relationship can be used to design climate mitigation actions humans can take to limit the amount of warming from our use of fossil fuels in the form of Climate Mitigation Pathways and Carbon Budgets such that we can actually set a target of how much warming we can tolerate and then dial in a reduced rate of emissions that will produce exactly that amount of warming and not more. This procedure is the foundation of all calls for climate action in the form of overhauling the world’s energy infrastructure away from fossil fuels to green and renewable sources such as solar and wind. The carbon budget is explained in a related post on this site [LINK] .
  5. Climate mitigation action taken by us in time can save us from the horrors of sea level rise that, without climate action, could inundate places like Florida, Louisiana, Bangladesh, Pacific islands, and the Maldives. The effect of climate action on sea level rise is explained in two related posts [LINK] [LINK] .
  6. It is also known that higher sea surface temperature causes stronger tropical cyclones such as the hurricanes of the North Atlantic and the Typhoons of the Pacific. Climate mitigation actions described above can also be used to reduce the destructiveness of extreme weather. Related posts [LINK] [LINK] .
  7. Yet another horror of human caused global warming with the use of fossil fuels that can be prevented with the climate action described above is that some of the carbon pollution from our fossil fuels end up in the ocean and cause what scientists call “ocean acidification”. It is a widespread pollution problem that can cause mass extinction of species as explained in these related posts [LINK] [LINK] .
  8. The horror of rising temperature, melting of ice sheets and glaciers, catastrophic sea level rise, and extreme weather that awaits us if we do not take climate action can be seen in prior interglacial events.  These interglacial events are described in two related posts [LINK] [LINK] .
  9. Scientists at NASA have kindly provided a “How we Know” document in plain English that explains to non-scientists how scientists know that climate change is human caused and the very real possibilities of its tragic consequences [LINK] ..














  1. Sunspots are evanescent dark spots on the sun ranging in size from megameters to gigameters in diameter. Their life span varies from two days to two weeks and their number at any given time from a few to more than a hundred. The total number of sunspots is known to serve as a measure of the level of solar activity (Rogers, 2006) (Yan, 2013). The time series of the number of sunspots appears to form a cyclical pattern with a period of about eleven-years. However, both the period and the amplitude of this cycle are variable and irregular apparently containing long run and irregular cycles of their own (Hathaway, 1994) (Rogers, 2006) (Miletsky, 2014). Sunspot cycles have presented researchers with an enigmatic and vexing quandary for centuries because their irregular nature is not well understood (Hathaway, The Solar Cycle, 2010).
  2. Sunspot counts have been recorded and studied since 1610 and all aspects of the patterns in the time series have been subjected to intense scrutiny and interpretation in terms of solar phenomena and their effects on earth (Usoskin, A solar cycle lost, 2009) (Usoskin, Grand minima and maxima of solar activity, 2007) (Hathaway, The Solar Cycle, 2010). The interest in sunspot numbers has grown in the climate change era due to advances in satellite measurements of solar activity and also because of the possible effects of changes in solar irradiance on climate (Weart, 2003) (Haigh, 2007) (Fox, 2004). However, certain issues in the utility of sunspot count time series data remain unresolved, the most prominent being the irregular nature of both the short term solar cycle and the long wave of its amplitude. In this short note we show that these issues may be addressed by separating the regular cyclical components of the solar cycle from the irregular and by describing the system as a sum of two independent phenomena – one cyclical and the other random. The random component is shown to be a non-Gaussian Hurst process with dependence and persistence, properties known to create irregular patterns from randomness (Hurst, 1951) (Koutsoyiannis D. , 2002) (Mandelbrot B. , 1972) (Kim, 2006) (Watari, 1995) (Zhou, 2014).
  3. Daily counts of sunspots converted into monthly means are maintained and provided by WDC-SILSO2, Royal Observatory of Belgium, Brussels (SIDC, 2015). Although daily data are available, monthly means are expected to provide sufficient precision for this work because the unit of time represents less than one percent of the period of the average solar cycle. Currently these data are available as Version 2 of the SILSO dataset. The release of version 2 has removed certain inconsistencies between the SILSO data and the sunspot count data maintained by the NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration of the USA). The SILSO mean monthly sunspot counts are available from January 1749 to November 2015 as of this writing. The latter segment of the data series starting from January 1818 contains additional information including the number of different counts taken and both the mean and the standard deviation of these counts. This portion of the dataset is considered to be more reliable than the older data (Clette, 2014) (SIDC, 2015) and it therefore forms the principal source data for this investigation. The time series of monthly mean sunspot counts are decomposed into two components – a cyclical component and a random component. The cyclical component is estimated with a triangular wave generator for Microsoft Excel provided by (Circuit Center, 2008). The VBA code used is included in the Appendix. The function can generate an asymmetric triangular wave in time with specified low value, high value, time to reach the high value from the low value, and time to reach the low value from the high value. Two cycles are overlaid, one short wave and one long wave. The short wave cycle is used to describe the 11-year solar cycle and the long wave is used to capture the gradual waxing and waning of the amplitude of the solar cycle. The low value is set to zero for both cycles. Prediction errors are computed as the difference between observed counts and the counts predicted by the two overlaid wave functions. The optimal values of the wave parameters are then estimated by minimizing the sum of squared prediction errors with a Generalized Reduced Gradient (GRG) trial and error procedure provided in Excel’s “Solver” tool (Munshi, Methods for Estimating the Hurst Exponent of Stock Returns, 2015).
  4. A hypothesis test of the correlation is used to determine whether the optimal wave functions explain a sufficient fraction of the total sum of squared deviations from the mean to represent the underlying cyclical component of the sunspot phenomenon. The hypotheses are stated as H0: ρ=0 versus HA: ρ>0, where ρ represents the correlation in the underlying population from which the sample was taken. If H0: ρ=0 is rejected, the residuals of the optimal waveform are taken to be the random component of the sunspot count series and subjected to further tests with Rescaled Range Analysis to determine whether the residuals are Gaussian or whether they contain the so called Hurst phenomenon that implies long term memory and persistence (Hurst, 1951) (Koutsoyiannis D. , 2002) (Mandelbrot-Wallis, 1969). Hypothesis tests are carried out at a maximum false positive error rate of α=0.001 per comparison in accordance with “Revised standards for statistical evidence” published by the National Academy of Sciences (Johnson, 2013). For multiple comparisons the total study-wide error rate is reported with a Bonferroni adjustment (Holm, 1979). Rescaled range analysis is carried out by taking subsamples without replacement from the residuals in eight cycles. The total sample size of the residuals is N=2375. In the first cycle, 2 subsamples of ѵ≈1187 are taken, in the second cycle 3 subsamples of ѵ≈791, and in the eighth cycle 24 subsamples of ѵ≈99 are taken. The complete sub-sampling strategy is described in Table 1 where n refers to the average sample size per cycle.
  5. The value of the Hurst exponent H is computed according to the equation R/S = ѵ^H where R/S is the rescaled range, ѵ is the subsample size, and H is the Hurst exponent. The rescaled range for each subsample is computed as the range of the cumulative sums of differences from the mean that has been “rescaled” by the standard deviation of the subsample. This is the key variable that makes it possible for the exponent H to distinguish a Gaussian series with no dependence or memory from a Hurst series that exhibits long term memory and persistence. The value of H lies in the range 0<H<1. In theory, a value of H=0.5 indicates a Gaussian series with the interval 0<H<0.5 indicating anti-persistence and the interval 0.5<H<1 indicating persistence (Hurst, 1951) (Mandelbrot B. , 1972). These theoretical interpretations apply only when both N and ѵ approach infinity. In actual empirical tests, the observed values of H are affected by N, ѵ, and the sub-sampling structure used in the test (Granero, 2008). In addition, the method employed in estimating the mean unbiased value of H implied by the subsamples also affects the results (Munshi, Methods for Estimating the Hurst Exponent of Stock Returns, 2015) (Munshi, The Hurst exponent of precipitation, 2015). Therefore, it is necessary to calibrate the sampling structure and estimation method with a known Gaussian series to determine the neutral Gaussian value of H under identical test conditions. The observed value of H for the test series is then compared with the calibrated neutral value to determine whether the data contain evidence of non-Gaussian behavior. Each subsample implies a value of H. The best unbiased estimate of H from all 75 subsamples is made using four different estimation methods for both the test series and the calibration Gaussian series. They are (1) a simple mean of all 75 H values, (2) a weighted mean of the H values, (3) a simple linear regression with y=ln(R/S) and x=ln(ѵ) with the intercept set to zero, and (4) a weighted regression of the same linear model. In the weighted procedures the values taken from a subsample are weighted by the size of the subsample which varies from 1188 to 99. All four estimates are compared with the corresponding calibration values and the difference tested for statistical significance at α=0.001. Non-Gaussian behavior is implied only if the null hypothesis that ΔH=0 is rejected in all four tests.
  6. Figure 1: Monthly mean sunspot counts Jan 1818 to November 2015 and the optimal regular wave function (ORW) fig01table02
  7. In Figure 1 the irregular wave of the monthly mean sunspot count data series is shown in red and the optimal regular wave function (ORW) in blue. The graph covers the entire study period from January 1818 to November 2015. The ORW is estimated with a Generalized Reduced Gradient numerical method that minimizes the sum of squared prediction errors (Munshi, Methods for Estimating the Hurst Exponent of Stock Returns, 2015). Details of the ORW appear in the table below Figure 1. The ORW consists of a short wave and a long wave. The optimal ORW parameters are those at which the sum of squared prediction errors is minimized. This condition yields an asymmetric short wave solar cycle with a rising period of 50 months and a falling period of 81 months; with a total period of 131 months being very close to the well-known 11-year solar cycle. The initial amplitude of the short wave solar cycle is 100 sunspots but it follows a long wave with an amplitude of 130 sunspots. The long wave is symmetrical with a period of 100 years and it implies that the amplitude of the short wave solar cycle varies from 100 to 230 sunspots in a 100-year cycle as evident from the graphical display in Figure 1 where we see a close correspondence between the data and the ORW. This visual intuition is supported by the statistics in the table below Figure 1 which show that more than 50% of the sum of squared deviations of sunspot counts from the mean are explained by the ORW model yielding a correlation coefficient of 0.745. The statistical significance of this correlation is established by the high value of the t-statistic of t=81.72 shown in the table below Figure 1. These relationships support the assumption that the ORW is the true underlying phenomenon of nature that generates sunspots and that variations from it represent the randomness of nature. The ORW residuals are shown in Figure 2 along with a corresponding random Gaussian series. The visual comparison indicates that the ORW residuals are not Gaussian because they contain patterns.
  8. Patterns in residuals often imply that the model is incomplete because it has missed certain behaviors in the data. However, it can also mean that the residual patterns are the product of the Hurst phenomenon in which dependence and long term memory in random data generate faux patterns (Hurst, 1951) (Koutsoyiannis, 2002). Behavior of this kind in sunspot data has been reported in previous studies as a way of addressing the irregularity of solar cycles (Kim, 2006) (Zhou, 2014) (Watari, 1995). In this study we use rescaled range analysis to determine whether the Hurst exponent of the ORW residuals can provide a suitable explanation for the observed patterns. Four different methods are used for the estimation of H with rescaled range analysis. The table below shows that in all four cases, The Hurst exponent of the ORW residuals greatly exceeds the neutral Gaussian value in the calibration series. The least difference is 0.2266 observed in the last row of the table for the weighted OLS estimation method. The standard error of the two values of H are computed as 0.003 and 0.00275 and the standard deviation of the sampling distribution of differences is estimated to be 0.004. The corresponding t-statistic is t=56.56 indicating a strong statistical significance of the difference. We conclude that the Hurst exponent of the random component of the sunspot data is higher than the neutral Gaussian value and that therefore the ORW residuals contain the Hurst phenomenon of long term memory and persistence. Such behavior in the residuals can explain the apparent patterns in the data as shown in the charts below.


  9. CONCLUSION: A hurdle to the analysis and understanding of the cyclical behavior of sunspot counts has been the irregular nature of these cycles. We therefore propose that the phenomenon is best described as the sum of two components – one regular and cyclical and the other irregular and random. For mean monthly sunspot counts in the sample period 1/1818-11/2015 we show that the regular and cyclical component of the phenomenon consists of two superimposed wave functions, one a short wave and the other a long wave. The short wave is identified as a 131-month asymmetric and triangular cycle of sunspot counts with a 50-month rising leg and an 81-month falling leg. The long wave is found to be a 100-year symmetric triangular wave in which the amplitude of the short wave fluctuates between 100 and 230 sunspots. This optimal regular component of sunspot number behavior is constructed by minimizing the residuals of the compound wave function. It is shown that these residuals are not random Gaussian but that they tend to form patterns.
  10. Rescaled range analysis of the residuals shows that they contain the Hurst effect of memory and persistence and it is proposed that the patterns in the residuals may be explained in terms of the Hurst phenomenon of nature. This finding suggests that, at an annual time scale, the behavior of sunspot cycles at an annual time scale may be understood in terms of its regular and cyclical components overlaid with a Hurst process. It is not likely that such persistence exists the longer time scale of 11 years at which the sunspot cycle is studied in the context of climate change [LINK] . With thanks to @pgeerkens on twitter.





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Press Conference at the Launch of the IPCC Synthesis Report

Press Conference at the Launch of the IPCC Synthesis Report (Tivoli Conference Center, Lumbye Room) (REMARKS, Q&A) (with Mrs. Ban) (Nesirky)


Climate change deal struck at Paris Summit











  1. THE UNITED NATIONS IS AN UNCONSTRAINED BUREAUCRACY. It is financed mostly by taxpayers from a few donor countries but the large and growing bureaucracy is too far removed from those taxpayers to be directly accountable to them. It is run by unelected, unaccountable, undisciplined, and incompetent bureaucrats. The organization’s size, budget, and scope are unconstrained. The budget funding process provides perverse incentives for these bureaucrats to increase the size and scope of their organization simply by creating multitudes of agencies and programs, and by inventing problems and environmental crises set on a global scale.
  2. The remarkable success of the EPA of the USA made it a model for environmental law and environmental protection in countries around the world (Ruckelshaus, 1984) (Andreen, 2004) (Dolin, 2008). It was in this context that renowned Canadian environmentalist and visionary Maurice Strong saw the need for a global version of the EPA that could work at a planetary level with a global reach unhindered by national boundaries (Ward, 1972). He convened the UN meeting on the environment in Stockholm in 1972. The United Nations Environment Program (UNEP) was conceived in Stockholm and soon thereafter approved by the UN General Assembly with Maurice Strong as its first Executive Director (Bodansky, 2001) (Ball, 2015).
  3. The UNEP quickly became the nucleus of a large and growing cluster of United Nations agencies, secretariats, programs, frameworks, conventions, protocols, and conferences. As of this writing they include the Montreal Protocol, the Ozone Secretariat, the Kyoto Protocol, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Sustainable Development Goals (SDG), Agenda 21, United Nations Environment Assembly (UNEA), UNEP Climate Action, and long sequence of Conference of Parties (COP) annual meetings starting with COP1 in 1995 to COP21 in 2015.
  4. Planetary Environmentalism: Ozone Depletion: For the UNEP to achieve its ambition of being the EPA for the world it needed a global catastrophic pollution problem which it could tackle and clean up just as the EPA had cleaned up the air and water in the USA. A series of events that began in the 1970s and culminated in 1985 provided them with just such an opportunity. In the 1970s, environmentalist James Lovelock, the man who had invented the idea of environmentalism on a planetary scale in terms of the Gaia hypothesis (Lovelock, 1972) was concerned about the atmospheric release of halogenated hydrocarbons (HHC) that were used as refrigerants, as propellants for household liquids such as hairspray, and as fumigants in agriculture. His concern was that these man-made chemicals did not otherwise occur in nature and that they were chemically inert. The latter property implied that their release into the atmosphere, even at modest rates, could cause dangerous accumulation. This idea was empirically verified when Lovelock found these chemicals in air samples taken in the middle of the North Atlantic (Lovelock, 1977). Nobel Laureates Frank Rowland and Mario Molina working at the University of California at Irvine were intrigued by Lovelock’s findings and described a mechanism in which the long life in the atmosphere of chemically inert HHC could transport them by way of atmospheric circulations to the stratosphere where the spectrum of solar irradiance can cause them to become catalytic agents of ozone destruction for up to 150 years after their release into the atmosphere (Molina, 1974). The catalytic mechanism involves an intermediate step in which chlorine released from HHC causes ozone to dissociate (Stolarski, 1974).
  5. Stratospheric ozone is formed and destroyed by solar irradiance above the tropics in what is known as the Chapman Cycle (Chapman, 1930) (Fisk, 1934) (Dütsch, 1979). High energy UVC radiation causes oxygen to dissociate into charged free radicals. Their chance collision with other oxygen molecules forms ozone but their chance collision with ozone causes ozone destruction; but the much higher probability of collisions with oxygen creates an equilibrium inventory of ozone in the stratosphere. The equilibrium inventory is lowered somewhat by UVB radiation which destroys ozone. In that process UVB becomes completely absorbed in the stratosphere thereby saving life on the surface of the earth from the harmful effects of UVB radiation (Beder, 1993) (Caldwell, 1986) (DeGruijl, 1999) (Armstrong, 2001) (Cullen, 1994) (Allen, 1998) (Tevini, 1989). It is in this context that we can understand the fear of ozone depletion by anthropogenic air pollution as described by Rowland and Molina in terms of the Lovelock data. If HHC emissions cause ozone depletion in the stratospheric ozone layer, the equilibrium inventory of ozone will decline and compromise the ability of the ozone layer to protect life on earth from UVB radiation. HHC emissions can thus be seen as a kind of air pollution on a planetary scale. This kind of planetary air pollution together with its adverse effects on the biosphere on a global scale was just the kind of thing that the UNEP needed not only to justify its existence but to grow in size, importance, and funding. In 1977 the UNEP initiated a new program called the World Plan of Action on the Ozone Layer. However, they would have to wait for empirical evidence that stratospheric ozone was indeed being depleted before they could get funded for carrying out such a plan. They did not have to wait long. In 1985, the British Antarctic Survey (BAS) published a landmark paper that showed that total column ozone (TCO) measured near the South Pole during the southern spring months of October and November were dramatically lower in the period 1980-1984 than they were in the period 1957-1973 (Farman, 1985). The difference was ascribed to the Rowland-Molina mechanism of ozone depletion and thereby to global emissions of HHC. The UNEP seized this opportunity to assume the role of the environmental protection agency for the planet that could save the world from ozone depletion, dangerous UVB radiation, and skin cancer epidemics (Beder, 1993) (Litfin, 1994). This was the birth of the new UN as the planetary environmental mother and savior of all mankind and of all nations. When environmentalism is thus defined as global, it diminishes the role and importance of national boundaries and of national sovereignty and advances the role, power, reach, and budget of the United Nations.
  6. The UNEP responded to the Farman paper almost immediately by convening the Vienna Convention for the Protection of the Ozone Layer in 1985 which established the idea of an international cooperative effort against ozone destruction by anthropogenic air pollution. As expected, the Vienna Convention appointed the UNEP as the United Nations agency in charge of the program. The Montreal Protocol of 1987, the Helsinki Declaration of 1989, and the London Meeting of the Parties to the Montreal Protocol of 1990 followed in the heels of the Vienna meeting to coordinate and fund a UNEP program to ban the production, sale, and atmospheric release of man-made chemicals identified by the UNEP as ozone depleting substances (ODS) (Rowlands, 1993) (Morrisette, 1989). In 1991 a Multilateral Fund was set up for this effort and an Ozone Secretariat was established to carry out the plan. The fund greatly enhanced UNEP’s financial and political power and the size of its bureaucracy. In addition to the direct funding of more than $5 billion in constant 2005 dollars given to the UNEP to save the ozone layer from ODS, society bore many billions more in the socio-economic cost of the ban. The rush to action, justified by the UNEP using the precautionary action principle came at the expense of scientific rigor. The flaws in the conclusions drawn from the BAS data (Farman, 1985) are described in related posts on this site [LINK] [LINK] [LINK] . Briefly, the flaw in UNEP ozone chemistry is that the entirety of the Chapman ozone chemistry including the proposed Rowland-Molina theory of ozone destruction by chlorine takes place above the tropics and not at the greater latitudes. For evidence of changes in the kinetics and equilibria in these reactions one should look at the tropics or at global means and not rely exclusively on data from the South Pole. Yet, the ozone depletion crisis was sold purely on the basis of the size of the ozone hole above the South Pole possibly because the data for global means do not show any evidence of ozone depletion [LINK] . The ozone hole is a region above Antarctica where TCO is less than 200 DU. It should be mentioned that the ozone hole is not a “hole” but a region where ozone levels are considered to be low based on an arbitrary criterion. The size of the ozone hole contains both a seasonal cycle and apparent decadal or multi-decadal cycles without a clear long term trend that can be interpreted either in terms of ozone depletion or in terms of the success of the Montreal Protocol in arresting ozone depletion. Yet the UNEP along with NASA and the NOAA have used these data to declare that the Montreal Protocol was successful in solving the ozone depletion crisis many decades ahead of the time frame needed for such a success in terms of the “long life” of HHC that serves as the foundational concept in the Rowland-Molina theory of ozone depletion (Parry, 2011) (UNEP, 2007) (NOAA, 2010).
  7. Ozone is formed only above the tropics where solar irradiance is direct. The reason that we find ozone at mid and polar latitudes is that it is taken there from the tropics by the Brewer-Dobson Circulation (Brewer, 1949). Seasonal and inter-annual changes in this circulation are well known and well documented (Rabbe, 1992) (Kozubek, 2012) (Tegtmeier, 2008). Under these conditions it is not possible to interpret changes in TCO in Antarctica in terms of only the Rowland-Molina mechanism of ozone depletion. Changes in TCO due to the changes in the efficiency and extent of distribution of ozone from the tropics to these latitudes must also be considered particularly so in the polar latitudes. The evidence shows that the distributional efficiency of the Brewer-Dobson Circulation declines beyond the 60th parallel particularly in the Southern Hemisphere. In view of the dynamic nature of the global distribution of TCO and the spherical shape of the planet the appropriate metric for an empirical test of the Rowland-Molina theory of ozone depletion is the latitudinally weighted mean global ozone because only such a global metric serves as a measure of the total TCO inventory of the world (Gleisner, 2011). The Rowland-Molina theory implies a declining trend in this measure. In prior studies two attempts were made to detect this declining trend – one with satellite data and one with ground station data for TCO. No evidence of ozone depletion was found in either study [LINK] . In view of these findings, a possible explanation of the apparent early success of the Montreal Protocol is that it is a solution to a non-existent problem. In view of the data presented here and in the prior studies we would like to think that the theory of ozone depletion by HHC and the ban on HHC to save the ozone layer are derived from bad science by good people who felt that they had to act quickly in accordance with the precautionary principle. However, in view of the enormous gains made by the UNEP in implementing a program to solve a non-existent problem and in view of a history of corrupt practices at the UN (Zaruk, 2014) (Ball, 2015) (Lynch, 2006) (Schaefer, 2012) (Dewar, 1995) (Rossett, 2006) (Rossett, 2008), intentional fraud and corruption for financial and bureaucratic gains by the United Nations cannot be ruled out.
  8. Planetary Environmentalism: Ozone Depletion to Climate Change: Fossil fuels are hydrocarbons taken from deep under the ground where they had been sequestered from the surface-atmosphere carbon cycle for millions of years. Their combustion introduces new extraneous carbon into the delicately balanced surface-atmosphere carbon cycle and climate system. A perturbation of the surface-atmosphere system that can be ascribed to fossil fuel emissions is therefore an anthropogenic effect on climate that is unnatural, unprecedented, and possibly catastrophic. This observation has concerned scientists ever since the Industrial Revolution started a steep and exponential increase in fossil fuel emissions (Callendar, 1938) (Revelle, 1956) (NAS, 1977) (Hansen, 1981) (Hansen, 1988) (IPCC, 2007) (IPCC, 2014) (Hansen, 2016). The proposed mechanism of this perturbation is that fossil fuel emissions increase the CO2 concentration of the atmosphere and that the change in atmospheric composition increases its greenhouse effect. This mechanism implies that fossil fuel emissions should cause global warming, but faced with a 30-year cooling trend in the 1940s to the 1970s, NASA scientist Stephen Schneider suggested that the aerosol effect of fossil fuel combustion overcomes the greenhouse effect and predicted global cooling instead of global warming (Rasool, 1971). However, when the 30-year cooling trend ended and a warming trend began in 1976 (NAS, 1977) (Hansen, 1981) the warming theory regained the upper hand and emerged as the climate science orthodoxy or our time. In due course it became sensationalized in terms of melting polar ice caps, rising seas, extreme weather, social unrest, and mass extinctions in a New York Times article after the 1988 Congressional Testimony of James Hansen (Shabecoff, 1988) (Hansen, 1988). This event in 1988 marks the beginning of the modern era of the climate change narrative with the warming orthodoxy having survived the so called hiatus period since 1998 (Karl, 2015) (Nieves, 2015).
  9. For the UNEP the frightening new global warming and climate change narrative served as yet another planetary air pollution crisis in which it could seize global leadership and grow in terms of size, funding, and power at the expense of taxpayers in donor countries. In this case, the global “air pollutant” was identified as the unnatural and extraneous new carbon dioxide from the combustion of fossil fuels. The UNEP responded to the events of 1988 almost immediately. It saw its opportunity and seized it having tasted great success in this kind of situation in the case of HHC pollution and ozone depletion. In he ozone depletion event, it had set up the Montreal Protocol to ban the production, sale, and atmospheric release of HHC at great cost to taxpayers and to society at large and was given credit or having solved a problem that they had invented (Munshi, Latitudinally Weighted Mean Global Ozone, 2016). Emboldened by that success the UNEP would now attempt to apply the same strategy to ban fossil fuel emissions (VanDyke, 2010). The essential lesson learned by the UNEP in the ozone scare [LINK] is that taxpayers can be scared into funding new programs. The Montreal Protocol serves as a business model for the fear mongering business in which it is necessary only to convince taxpayers that (1) the planet needs to be saved from an imminent crisis and (2) the UNEP can do that job given sufficient funding, bureaucratic growth, and bureaucratic power. The credibility of this business model is underwritten by the success of the Montreal Protocol (VanDyke, 2010).
  10. The UNEP began by creating a new United Nations agency to be called the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). It was formed and approved by the General Assembly in 1988, the same year that the Hansen testimony and the New York Times story had raised public awareness and fear of catastrophic anthropogenic global warming and climate change (CAGW). The UNEP cooperated with the WMO in this venture since climate was an important part of this global air pollution crisis. The IPCC was established with an initial cash outlay of 74.6 million CHF for the period 1988-2004 with additional annual funds of five to eight million CHF thereafter in nominal terms (IPCC, 2016). Millions more were made available as “in kind” contributions mostly in the form of facilities and personnel. Of note is the “in-kind” contribution of the WMO in providing office space to the IPCC at their headquarters in Geneva, Switzerland.
  11. The purpose of the IPCC is to provide a functional link between climate scientists and governments so that government policy around the world to tackle climate change will be coherent, cooperative, and consistent with the current state of climate science (IPCC, 2016). The IPCC carries out this function in two highly visible ways. First, they are required to publish a report every five or seven years to “synthesize” the current state of climate science into an “assessment report” (AR). About four thousand people (experts, contributing authors, and lead authors) are involved in writing these reports. They are divided into three parts prepared by three different groups of authors known as WG (Working Groups). WG1 synthesizes the current state of climate science from peer reviewed publications. WG2 develops scenarios and long term forecasts in terms of the possible consequences of climate change that are consistent with the synthesis by WG1. Lastly, WG3 develops the policy implications of the impact assessments by WG2 in terms of both mitigation and adaptation (IPCC, 2016). This information chain connects climate science to policy making at all levels of government around the world. The chain may be described as climate science –> WG1 –> WG2 –> WG3 –> governments. As of this writing (2015) five voluminous reports have been published by the IPCC. They are AR1 in 1990, AR2 in 1996, AR3 in 2001, AR4 in 2007, and AR5 2014 (IPCC, 2016). Each of these releases has been given a great deal of media coverage but the system has mostly failed to change the course of government policy (Manne, 2013) (The Scientific Alliance, 2010) (Jamieson, 2014) (Climate Science Policy, 2014). The second major visible activity of the IPCC has been a series of high profile annual meetings with intense media coverage. These meetings are called Conference of Parties (COP). They are held at different venues around world to enforce the WG3 policy recommendations upon national governments in the form of an international treaty as a way of replicating their success in the Montreal Protocol meetings (VanDyke, 2010). About 30,000 to 40,000 delegates from more than 190 countries attend these week-long meetings at taxpayer expense. Most of the delegates are from non-Annex countries that are irrelevant in terms of mitigation (McSweeny, 2015). The intensity of media coverage of these meetings also serves to heighten the fear factor in the fear based environmental activism used to push for an overhaul of the world’s energy infrastructure away from fossil fuels.
  12. The first such meeting was held in Geneva in 1990 immediately after the release of AR1 (UNFCCC, 1993). The meeting concluded that fossil fuel emissions are increasing the atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases and called for worldwide restrictions on such emissions along the lines of the ban on ozone depleting substances in the Montreal Protocol. However, no mechanism existed for the IPCC to make such a demand. The primary outcome of this meeting was therefore the need for a United Nations “Framework Convention on Climate Change” (UNFCCC) to serve as a basis for a global treaty to reduce fossil fuel emissions. This framework convention was formulated by a committee of delegates from 150 nations immediately following the 1993 meeting. The emission reduction formula contained in the UNFCCC recognizes “common but differentiated” responsibilities (CBDR) for developed and developing countries, a bureaucratic complication that would later haunt them. Two years later in the 1992 “Rio Earth Summit” was held in the seaside resort city of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil where delegates from all UN member nations convened to sign the UNFCCC into force. Two additional “framework conventions were tagged on to the UNFCCC and these too came into force at the Rio Earth Summit23. The UNFCCC entered into force along the lines of an international treaty in 1994. The 196 United Nations member countries that signed the treaty, known as Parties agreed to meet annually at “Conferences of the Parties” or COP to implement a coordinated plan for cutting fossil fuel emissions.
  13. The stage now appeared to be set for an attack on fossil fuel emissions along the lines of the success of the Montreal Protocol in banning ozone depleting substances (VanDyke, 2010). This was probably the most optimistic and self-serving moment for the UNEP and the IPCC. The third of the COP meetings (COP3) under the framework of the UNFCCC was held at Kyoto, Japan in 1997. COP3 in Kyoto appeared to be a major breakthrough for the UNEP’s attempt to duplicate their ozone success in the new arena of climate change. The Kyoto Protocol signed by 192 countries harkened back to the Montreal Protocol signed ten years earlier. Like the Montreal Protocol, the Kyoto Protocol was a treaty that enforced concrete obligations on signatories. In the case of the Montreal Protocol the obligation involved phased elimination of the production, sale, and atmospheric release of chemicals identified as ozone depleting substances by all Parties. In the case of the Kyoto Protocol the obligation was a phased reduction in fossil fuel emissions but it did not apply equally to all PartiesIn accordance with the “common but differentiated responsibilities” principle of the UNFCCC, the Parties were segregated into three groups defined as Annex 1 (developed and industrialized countries including the transition economics of the former Soviet Union), Annex 2 (Annex 1 minus the transition economies), and Non-Annex-1 (developing countries) (UNFCCC, 2014). The Annex 1 and Annex 2 Parties committed to defined emissions reduction by 2012 as a percent of emissions in 1990. The Annex 2 Parties further committed to providing undefined financial and technological assistance to the Non-Annex-1 Parties to pursue undefined activities having to do with mitigation and adaptation.
  14. To complicate matters further, the Non-Annex-1 Parties were further divided into three sub-groups. They are (1) Non-Annex-1 but not vulnerable to the effects of climate change, (2) Non-Annex-1 and vulnerable, and (3) Least Developed Countries (LDC). The three sub-groups differed with respect to obligations towards the global effort to tackle climate change and with respect to claims for financial and technological assistance from the Annex-1 Parties (UNFCCC, 2014). Yet another classification exists for Small Island Developing States or SIDS (UNEP, 2004) which was created as a special program of the UNEP to address issues specific to SIDS (Zaruk, 2014). The complexity of the classification of Parties and their role in the Kyoto Protocol is a hindrance to reaching meaningful agreements that can be implemented but it may serve other needs of a bureaucracy with little accountability or oversight (Zaruk, 2010). The Montreal Protocol and the Kyoto Protocol are superficially similar and the intent of the UNEP was that the Kyoto Protocol would duplicate the much heralded success story of the Montreal Protocol and apply it to the job of tackling climate change in terms of both mitigation and adaptation. However, this expectation is unrealistic because of a fundamental difference between the two Protocols. While the Montreal Protocol imposed well defined and phased compliance targets by all Parties, the Kyoto Protocol does not. The complex and ill-defined segregation of parties and their obligations has turned into a giant bewildering bureaucratic puzzle. The Kyoto Protocol is a treaty that cannot be implemented because of complexities put into it by incompetent bureaucrats. The complexity worsened when rapid economic growth in certain Non-Annex-1 Parties particularly China, India, and Indonesia, made them together the largest single source of fossil fuel emissions in the world but without any emission reduction obligation (EPA, 2016). Since then dozens of annual UNFCCC COP meetings have been held in places like Buenos Aires, Bonn, The Hague, Marrakesh, New Delhi, Milan, Montreal, Bali, Poznan, Copenhagen, Cancun, Durban, Doha, Warsaw, Lima, and Paris at a huge cost to taxpayers particularly in the donor countries – but they failed to solve the bureaucratic Gordian Knot that they had themselves created. The very costly effort by the UNEP/UNFCCC/IPCC bureaucracy to address the climate change crisis attributed to fossil fuel emissions has failed (Manne, 2013) (The Scientific Alliance, 2010) (Jamieson, 2014) (Climate Science Policy, 2014).
    The failure implies that climate change is not an issue that can be addressed by United Nations agencies such as the UNEP and the IPCC. These agencies can safely be disbanded without any harm to the environment or to society at large (Zaruk, 2014) (Zaruk, 2010). The primary task of dealing with climate issues should reside with national governments. All national governments possess appropriate mechanisms to assist policymakers with the implications of climate science. International issues in climate change may be brought to the United Nations General Assembly or to existing and well-functioning international organizations such as the G7, G20, OECD, and the EU. Technical issues may be addressed at regional and global scientific conferences. Bilateral and multilateral agreements and treaties may be used to address specific issues (Baxter, 1965) (Zawahri, 2011) (Pauwelyn, 2003). That a UN agency can act as an international policeman to mitigate climate change has been tried. It failed.
  15. An equally troubling issue is the absence of oversight and accountability of the IPCC to the member states of the UN that finance its operation. Although the IPCC was set up as an independent and neutral scientific body to objectively synthesize the current state of climate science purely on its merits and to translate that information into possible impacts and their policy implications, no UN oversight mechanism exists to ensure its objectivity or to audit the scientific credibility of its work. Possibly due to outside influences, the organization quickly turned into an advocacy group for CAGW with their AR documents closely following the Hansen narrative describing the catastrophic consequences of fossil fuel emissions (Hansen, 1988) (Hansen, 2016) (IPCC, 2007) (IPCC, 2014). There is no mention of opposing views or of alternative interpretations of the data in these documents. Large uncertainties in natural flows and in the various estimates of the so called “climate sensitivity” parameter were downplayed. Errors in past forecasts were ignored and successive AR reports continued to increase the degree of climate catastrophe in their forecasts. The IPCC AR reports are biased and activism oriented. They are primarily concerned with selling the idea of climate change calamity and its mitigation by emission reduction. Their use of science is limited to its utility in supporting that primary purpose.
  16. The bias in IPCC AR documents is documented in a 2010 commentary by the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency which took it upon itself to audit the IPCC AR4 WG2 forecasts and concluded that “The IPCC systematically favors adverse outcomes in a way that goes beyond serving the needs of policymakers.” (PBL, 2010). Some points from the PBL audit are as follows: 1. Exaggeration: The area in the Netherlands that the IPCC said was at risk of flooding by the sea was exaggerated. 2. A systemic tendency by the IPCC to stress negative effects of climate change and to ignore positive effects to the point of a built in misleading bias in the IPCC reports. 3. A systematic tendency to make generalized statements that actually refer to localized data: Example 1. The statement that “by 2020 in some countries yields from rain fed agriculture could be reduced to 50%” was based on a paper that was specific to Morocco. Also the paper said that the 50% reduction in yields would occur only in drought years and not in other years. This information was left out of the IPCC report and the yield reduction was generalized to all years. Example 2. A statement in a source document about lower yields of millet, groundnuts, and cowpeas in Niger was generalized by the IPCC to the entire Sahel region and to all crops. Example 3. A statement in the source document specific to cattle in Argentina was generalized by the IPCC to all livestock in all of South America.
  17. Statements are made without any supporting data or references: Example 1: The claim by the IPCC that fresh water availability in southern and eastern Asia will decline is not supported by data or by a citation. Example 2. The claim by the IPCC that in balance the net health effect of global warming in Europe will be negative is not supported by data or by a citation. IPCC assessments contain a bad news bias such that where an alarmist statement is supported by a citation, the IPCC interpretation is more alarmist than the text in the citation; the IPCC report tends to be unremittingly about the harmful impacts of climate change with a complete absence of beneficial impacts. Countries classified by the IPCC as vulnerable are asked to make a self-assessment of their vulnerability. These self-assessments are included in the AR without modification. It is known that vulnerability is directly proportional to adaptation funding. The opportunity and motivation for bias in these self-assessments are ignored by the IPCC. The alarming and negative impression of IPCC reports on their readers would not exist if the IPCC presented the source material without bias and with a more narrow and objective interpretation without injecting an IPCC bias. Such bias includes outright statistical fraud: A rise in heat related deaths in Australia is presented by the IPCC as due to rising temperatures. This rise disappears if we look at heat related deaths as a percent of population. This means that the IPCC misrepresented a population effect as a global warming effect.
  18. Yet another independent audit of the IPCC AR4 was carried out in 2011 by the Inter Academy Council (IAC), an international scientific body. The IAC audit found as follows (IAC, 2011): 1. The IPCC does not address genuine controversies, 2. Probabilities of events are reported without sufficient evidence and without providing a basis for how the probability was evaluated, 3. IPCC communication and selection procedures emphasize secrecy and not transparency, 4. A sufficiently wide range of scientific viewpoints is not considered and due consideration is not given to properly documented alternative views. Not mentioned in either of these audits is found in any subsequent IPCC report.
  19. A number of statistical errors in the IPCC assessments have been described in related posts at this site. They include the statistically flawed transient climate response to cumulative emissions (TCRE) [LINK] [LINK] , and its use in assessment of carbon budgets for a given rate of warming [LINK] . The IPCC’s carbon cycle flow accounting overcomes carbon cycle measurement problems with circular reasoning such that the assumption that observed changes in atmospheric CO2 concentration are driven by fossil fuel emissions leads to that very same conclusion [LINK]  [LINK] . The same is true of atmospheric methane [LINK] . Much of the IPCC’s case for the catastrophic impact of AGW deals with changes in Arctic sea ice extent with the assumption but not the evidence that these changes in sea ice extent are driven by AGW [LINK] and its repeated attempt to raise an alarm about changes in Antarctic sea ice extent are not supported by satellite data available since 1979 [LINK] .
  20. SUMMARY&CONCLUSIONS#1: The United Nations has made a brave and concerted effort to implement the vision of visionary Maurice Strong of using global environmentalism to redefine and extend the reach, size, budget, and power of the their organization that is not constrained by its charter. Their initial effort in the area of anthropogenic ozone depletion was a stunning and inexplicable success given the factual and scientific flaws in the ozone depletion science used in that achievement [LINK] . It is likely that the UN learned the power of debilitating fear from their ozone success and went on to use that methodology in anthropogenic global warming and climate change; but in this case, they were not just attacking refrigerants and hair spray but the energy infrastructure that is quite possibly the single most important factor in the dramatic advancement of our standard of living of living since the horse and buggy days of “pre-industrial times”. It turned out that the fear of overhauling the energy infrastructure was probably greater than the fear of climate change and that therefore the UN has failed to duplicate its ozone success in climate change. It is clear that neither is science and that both are fear based activism [LINK] but the important lesson of this experience is that the UN charter requires major surgery in terms of constraints, oversight, accountability, and discipline so that the function of the UN is well defined and that the sovereign nations that forms this organization are not adversely affected by its ambitions in terms of loss of sovereignty to un-elected and unaccountable bureaucrats.
  21. SUMMARY&CONCLUSIONS#2: It is well known that public sector bureaucracies without adequate constraint, oversight, audit, and accountability can devolve into self-serving organisms (Rose-Ackerman, 2008) (Gorodnichenko, 2007) (Romzek, 1987). The United Nations and its many agencies and programs are ultimately funded by taxpayers but they are too far removed from those taxpayers to be directly accountable to them. But who will discipline the UN? Agency theory ensures that no single country will venture to absorb the cost of disciplining the UN while gaining only pro-rata benefits (Jensen, 1976) (Eisenhardt, 1989). United Nations agencies and programs like the UNEP, IPCC, UNCFCCC, the Montreal Protocol, the Kyoto Protocol and their related frameworks, conventions and other bureaucratic artifacts are therefore allowed to operate under insufficient constraint, transparency, oversight, or discipline. Under these conditions they can morph into bureaucratic organisms that operate for their own needs and no longer serve the public interest (Bolton, 1994) (Halper, 1996) (Zaruk, 2014) (Zaruk, 2010). A case study of the UNEP and its related agencies, programs, framework conventions, and protocols exposes structural weaknesses that allowed the bureaucracy to extract rents and grow by selling environmental fear and assigning themselves the high office of saving the planet. This sequence was played out in two different episodes. In the first episode a fear of ozone depletion was sold and after successfully implementing a worldwide ban on alleged ozone depleting substances, the UN declared victory even though no evidence exists of long term trends in latitudinally averaged global mean total column ozone (Munshi, Latitudinally Weighted Mean Global Ozone, 2016) (Munshi, Mean Global Total Ozone from Ground Station Data, 2016). The absence of trends indicates that the problem that was solved never existed in the first place. In the second episode, they sold fear of catastrophic global warming and climate change allegedly caused by fossil fuel emissions but failed to duplicate their success in the first episode because of methodological flaws (IAC, 2011) (PBL, 2010) (McIntyre, 2007) (Zaruk, 2010) (Munshi, The Spuriousness of Correlations between Cumulative Values, 2016) (Laframboise, 2011) (Morano, 2013) (Ball, 2015) and also because their own bureaucratic incompetence created an emissions reduction plan that was too complicated to implement. The complication ensures an endless series of annual meetings of thousands of delegates at exotic locations with the only concrete achievement of each meeting being that of setting the date and place for the next meeting. These episodes serve as evidence that unconstrained and undisciplined public sector bureaucracies do not serve the interest of the public. We conclude that such UN bureaucracies can safely be dismantled without any harm to the public interest.










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How we know that climate change is happening and that humans are causing it



  1. CLAIM: The facts are these: The climate of our planet is changing at a pace unlike anything seen in the natural fluctuations traced across geological records, and scientists have therefore traced this global warming trend to human activity. RESPONSE: In related posts on this site it is shown that “natural fluctuations” in the Eemian interglacial, that immediately precedes our Holocene interglacial, are greater than what is seen in our current interglacial [EEMIAN LINK] .
  2. CLAIM: “The upper atmosphere is cooling while the lower atmosphere is warming,” he says. “You don’t get that without changing the composition of the atmosphere. We’re seeing changes you would theoretically see in a warming world”. RESPONSE: This is the so called “stratospheric cooling” argument. Climate models predict that the GHG heat trapping effect of atmospheric CO2 should simultaneously warm the troposphere and cool the lower stratosphere. These trends are found in the data. However, their interpretation in terms of a proof of the GHG effect of atmospheric CO2 by way of simultaneous warming of the troposphere and cooling of the stratosphere is not possible because the required correlation is not found. The analysis is presented in a related post at this site [STRATOSPHERIC COOLING LINK] .
  3. CLAIM: Data from Scripps Institution of Oceanography Mauna Loa Observatory show that atmospheric CO2 concentration has been rising since 1958 with a little over 300 parts per million by volume (ppm) to over 400 ppm in 2017. Carbon dioxide made up 81 percent of the United States’ greenhouse gas emissions in 2014. Fossil fuels and certain chemical reactions produce this odorless, colorless gas that traps heat in the atmosphere. Despite sinks that remove CO2 from the atmosphere such as soils, forests, and the ocean, industrial-era emissions have steadily raised atmospheric CO2 levels to the highest they have ever been in hundreds of millions of years. Reducing fossil fuel emissions is the number one way to reduce atmospheric CO2 levels. Energy efficiency, carbon capture, and market-based controls are among the most effective measures to curb fossil fuel emissions and to stop the rise in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration. RESPONSE: In a related post it is shown that the carbon cycle flow accounting used to attribute rising atmospheric CO2 concentration to fossil fuel emissions contains circular reasoning because this relationship is used to infer the much larger and unmeasurable natural flows of the carbon cycle [CARBON CYCLE LINK] . It is also shown with detrended correlation analysis that atmospheric CO2 concentration is not responsive to fossil fuel emissions [RESPONSIVENESS LINK] and that therefore no empirical evidence exists to support the assumed attribution of changes in atmospheric CO2 to fossil fuel emissions; or for the climate action assumption that reductions in fossil fuel emissions will reduce the rate of increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration. It should also be noted that the claim that atmospheric CO2 concentration today is the highest it has been in hundreds of millions of years is not correct  ([LINK] [LINK] [LINK].
  4. CLAIM:  The U.S. Drought Monitor shows that 12.2% of the USA is currently impacted by drought with 0.34% in extreme drought conditions. A drought is a prolonged period of dry weather that occurs when there’s an imbalance between evaporation and precipitation. It’s the real-world consequence of rising temperatures and can have devastating impacts on human health, food availability, animals, and soil. Greenhouse gas reduction will help in the long term to moderate these effects of climate change.  RESPONSE: In a related post it is shown that the Palmer Drought Severity Index for eleven states of the USA from 1908 to 2018 does not show a pattern consistent with the interpretation that these drought events are driven by anthropogenic global warming or that they can be moderated by reducing fossil fuel emissions [DROUGHT LINK] .
  5. CLAIM: The current rate of change of the Global Mean Sea Level (GMSL)Measured in: mm (millimeters) anomaly is a rise of 3.4 mm/year. The rise is due to melting ice and a warming oceans. Though the global sea level is also affected by short-term climate phenomena and geographic factors, it is closely linked to temperature. Sea levels rose consistently throughout the 20th century, leaving coastal regions more vulnerable to flooding, storm surges, and salt water seeping into freshwater aquifers and affecting plant and animal habitats. These changes can and should be controlled by reducing fossil fuel emissions. RESPONSE: A paper published in 2018 by Peter Clark of Oregon State University does show a statistical relationship between the rate of sea level rise and the rate of fossil fuel emissions such that sea level rise can be attributed to fossil fuel emissions and it can be argued that emission reduction will attenuate the rate of sea level rise. However, as shown in a related post, the correlation between cumulative emissions and cumulative sea level rise used in that paper is spurious  [CLARK PAPER LINK]When the analysis is carried out at finite time scales to overcome the statistical issue in the Clark paper, the correlation reported by Clark is not found [SEA LEVEL RISE LINK] . The data do not show that the observed rate of sea level rise can be attributed to fossil fuel emissions. Thus there is no evidence that reducing fossil fuel emissions can be used to control the rate of sea level rise.
  6. CLAIM: The global mean temperature estimates show that 2016 was the hottest year ever recorded, with global average temperatures reaching 1.69°F above the 20th-century average. Temperature is a direct effect of global warming. It is also the primary driver for other climate change phenomena like droughts, typhoons, hurricanes, wildfires, and habitat change. Human health and food and water availability are also tied to temperature. It is possible and necessary to control temperature rise by reducing fossil fuel emissions. RESPONSE: Climate science holds that the progress of anthropogenic global warming (AGW) must be measured as long term temperature trends. It is not possible to relate temperature events to AGW because they do not represent a long enough time span and they do not measure the rate of warming. Specifically in this case it should be considered that 2016 was a monster El Nino year and the high temperature reported here tells us about the variability of El Nino events but it does not contain information about a long term warming trend that that can be interpreted in terms of global warming and climate change. These hot year and hot month events serve only to raise the fear factor among the public with an inadequate understanding of climate science and yet they are used by climate scientists themselves. The need for such alarmism in climate science implies that the science has become corrupted with activism, Please see paragraph#15 in the related post on activism in climate science [CLIMATE ACTIVISM LINK] .
  7. CLAIM: The average SST in 2016 was the warmest ever recorded, averaging 0.75°C warmer than last century’s average. Our oceans absorb heat, and the more they absorb, the warmer they get. This doesn’t just affect marine life, disrupting fish populations, fueling algal blooms, and killing coral. Higher sea surface temperatures also create more atmospheric water vapor. The less heat the oceans must absorb, the cooler they’ll be. There’s only one way to accomplish that: Reduce fossil fuel emissions.  RESPONSE:  The study of SST ( sea surface temperature) as an indicator of AGW should follow the same type of analysis as global mean temperature in terms of long term trends because temperature events do not have long term interpretations. The high SST cited here is evidence of a strong El Nino year. It has no interpretation and no implication for climate change. It serves only certain activism needs and tells us nothing about AGW. Please see paragraph#15 in this related post [CLIMATE ACTIVISM LINK]
    6. CLAIM: Data for Arctic and Antarctic Sea Ice Extent measured in sq km (square kilometers) in which there is at least 15 percent ice In January 2017 show that  Arctic sea ice extent was 13.4 million sq km—1.3 million sq kim less than the 1981-2010 mean for January. The Antarctic sea ice extent was 4.0 million sq km—0.6 million sq km less than the 1981-2010 mean for January.  The polar ice caps have existed for millions of years. Not only are they a reliable indicator of climate change, but they reflect sunlight. That high albedo (reflectivity) helps deflect solar radiation, cooling off Earth. As the ice caps shrink, they stop cooling the poles. The less ice at the poles, the faster global warming will occur. In addition, the ice caps interact with animals (they’re habitat for everything from polar bears to penguins) and influence far-away weather. And as ice caps melt, they increase sea levels around the world. These changes can and should be moderated by reducing fossil fuel emissions. RESPONSE: Sea ice data for January 2017 in isolation as compared with the 1981-2010 average contains no useful information about trends in Arctic and Antarctic sea ice. Most climate scientists study long term trends in sea ice extent from 1979 to the year of the study in the summer minimum (September for the Arctic and February for the Antarctic) and the winter maximum (March for the Arctic and September for the Antarctic). Long term trends in sea ice extent for all twelve calendar months are shown for the period 1979-2018 in related posts at this site for the Arctic and the Antarctic [ARCTIC SEA ICE LINK]   [ANTARCTIC SEA ICE LINK] . These complex trends make it clear that the data posted by Popular Science to indicate that the January sea ice extent in 2017 was about 10% less in the Arctic and 15% less in the Antarctic than the average sea ice extent in the period 1981-2010 contains no useful information that can be interpreted in terms of AGW. In addition, the statement that “as ice caps melt, they increase sea levels around the world” is mysterious as melting sea ice does not raise sea level. The work done at this site shows that there are no long term trends in Antarctic sea ice  [ANTARCTIC SEA ICE LINK]  and that Arctic sea ice trends are complex and vary greatly among calendar months. Although some declining trends were found, there was insufficient correlation to attribute those changes to fossil fuel emissions. In brief, long term trends in sea ice extent are more complex than what has been implied in the Popular Science study.















  1. 1980, GLOBAL WARMING TREND IS HINTED: A comparison of the period 1974-1978 to the period 1930-1934 shows that (a) there is less packed ice fringing Antarctica and that (b) the average surface temperature in the zone of northern melting snows is 0.9 C warmer. These data are evidence of a warming trend. Antarctica is melting due to a global warming trend.
  2. 1980, CARBON DIOXIDE COULD CHANGE WEATHER: Since 1850 and the Industrial Revolution we have doubled atmospheric CO2 and if we  continue to burn fossil fuels it could double again in the next fifty years (2030) because fossil fuels produce carbon dioxide faster than plants can absorb them. Warming could cause the West Antarctic Ice Sheet to crack and slide into the ocean to raise sea levels by 16 feet and submerge Florida. There are too many uncertainties to asses the economic impact.
  3. 1981, AIR POLLUTANTS COMPLICATE GLOBAL WARMING PROBLEM: Chlorofluorocarbons, like carbon dioxide, also trap heat and cause global warming that can lead to melting polar ice caps and rising sea levels. The combination of CFC and CO2 emitted by human activity in the 1980s will raise temperature by 0.2 to 0.3 C rising above the level of the 1930s, the warmest period of this century. The mean surface temperature along the spring and summer line of melting snow in the Northern Hemisphere has gone up. These measurements were taken where the climate models had predicted they would be. The decline in fall and winter temperatures in the 1970s was an exception to the general rule. In addition, CFCs also threaten the protective ozone shield against harmful solar radiation.
  4. 1981, ICE CAP MELTING FORECAST: Institute for Space Studies, NYC: Rising carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere could bring a global warming of unprecedented magnitude melting the polar ice caps and flooding lowlands in the next century. The temperature rise could be 4.5 to 8 F depending on the growth in fossil fuel consumption. A doubling of CO2 will cause a temperature rise of 6 F. The West Antarctic Ice Sheet is vulnerable to rapid disintegration and melting. A global mean temperature rise of 3.6 F could cause a rise of 9 F at Antarctica melting the Ice Sheet and raising sea levels by 15 to 20 feet and flooding 25% of Florida and Louisiana within a span of 100 years or less.
  5. 1982, GOVERNMENTS IGNORING GLOBAL WARMING TREND: The use of fossil fuels will cause atmospheric carbon dioxide to double in the next 40 to 100 years raising temperatures by an average of 5 F by virtue of the greenhouse effect because carbon dioxide traps heat. The warming will cause polar ice to melt. In high northern latitudes spring will come earlier and earlier and winter later and later causing a decline in soil moisture. Warmer temperatures and less rainfall will devastate agriculture in much of the United States and the Soviet Union but a more regular monsoon pattern in India will increase rice production. Glaciers will melt and raise sea levels. But the government is not taking these forecasts seriously because scientists have not been able to communicate useful information to them and because some scientists have disputed these forecasts saying that warming can be self-correcting because it causes the formation of more clouds that reflect sunlight. Because there will be winners and losers from global warming, scientists cannot tell policymakers whether the net effect will be positive or negative. There is not a clear message for policymakers. The US government has cut research funds for the study of global warming from $14 million to $9 million eliminating the study of the social and political impact of global warming. Global warming is not a catastrophe because rich nations have the resources to deal with it and most of the developing countries will actually be better off.
  6. 1982, GLOBAL MEAN SEA LEVEL AN INDICATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE, Two NOAA scientists published a paper in Science to say that in the period 1940-1980 50,000 cubic km of polar ice has melted by global warming and the sea level has risen by thermal expansion as well as the added water from the ice melt. Global warming is “due in some degree presumably to increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide” is self-canceling because melting ice absorbs latent heat and cools the ocean. As polar ice melts, the resultant re-distribution of the earth’s mass slows down its rotational speed. In the 40-year period studied, earth’s rotational speed was thus slowed by 0.00000004%.
  7. 1983, EPA GIVES GLOOMY PREDICTIONS ON GREENHOUSE EFFECT: The world is powerless to prevent a greenhouse effect that will dramatically alter food production and living patterns. Instead of fighting the inevitable world leaders should be planning how to cope with its catastrophic impact. Coastal cities without sea-walls will be flooded. The climate of NYC will be like the climate now found in Florida. The US wheat belt will move northward. All because of global warming caused by a buildup of carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels. By the year 2100 these changes will produce catastrophic results. We should respond to this challenge with a sense of urgency. The warming process now set in place is irreversible and the dire predictions of global warming can only be delayed by a few years even with Draconian restrictions on fossil fuels. By the year 2000 the temperature could be 1.1 degrees higher, 3.6 degrees higher by 2040, and 9 degrees higher by 2100. The temperature rise in the poles will be three times higher melting the polar ice caps and causing sea levels to rise 3.5 inches by 2000, one foot by 2025, and five feet by 2100. More research is needed for better planning to cope with the changes. Some scientists expressed reservations about the report saying that the temperature and sea level rise predictions were probably exaggerated and that the alarmist tone of the report is unrealistic.
  8. 1983, EXPERTS DISAGREE ON GREENHOUSE EFFECT:  EPA predicts that the increase in average global temperature will become noticeable in 1990 and melting polar ice caps will cause sea levels to rise inundating low-lying areas. Some scientists disagree saying that these changes will come much later possibly in 2050. They compare the global warming alarm to ozone depletion which turned out to be less harmful than predicted. The dire prediction of an impending ice age was also overblown. The global warming calamity is exaggerated because the planet’s self-correcting mechanisms are ignored. They also suggested seaweed farming as a way of mitigating carbon dioxide emissions.
  9. 1984, CLIMATE SCIENTISTS NOT SURE THAT GLOBAL WARMING WILL CAUSE SEA LEVELS TO RISE.  Melting of polar ice caps by global warming will cause sea levels to rise by 4 to 7 feet by the year 2100. Or perhaps it would rise by only 2 feet by 2100 with further rapid rise possible after 2100 if the West Antarctic Ice Sheet begins to disintegrate. Or perhaps, warming will cause increased snowfall in the interior of Antarctica where the snow does not melt. That would cause sea levels to fall. In the last interglacial period, the North Atlantic was much warmer but the southern hemisphere was not.
  10. 1984, GLOBAL WARMING REDUCIBLE: Global warming can be reduced by increasing the efficiency of fossil fueled power plants and by speeding up conversion to nuclear, solar, and wind power. Nuclear can be significantly cheaper than coal. Significant warming is inevitable but it can be mitigated if the effort is global and immediate.
  11. 1984, RESEARCHER DOUBTS GLOBAL WARMING: The global warming predictions are based on land temperature measurements only. When you add in air temperatures taken by ships, there is no warming trend from 1949 to 1972 even though carbon dioxide produced by advanced economies spread throughout the world within one year. It is now widely believed that the greenhouse effect of carbon dioxide will melt polar ice caps and raise sea levels.
  12. 1984, GLOBAL WARMING CURB POSSIBLE: The global warming trend is due to the greenhouse effect. Mankind can forestall this trend by speeding up the development of nuclear power and other alternatives to fossil fuels  and thereby reducing atmospheric emissions of carbon dioxide.
  13. 1984, DAILY SHOWER MAY BE LUXURY IN WATER-SHORT FUTURE: Global warming caused by carbon dioxide pollution will cause noticeable warming by 2000 and increase the evaporation rate of water causing the level of the Great Lakes to drop 30% by 2050. These changes will cause a prolonged severe drought that will turn the American prairies into a dust bowl in the next few decades.
  14. 1985, GLOBAL WARMING COULD CAUSE FUTURE PROBLEMS, Roger Barry, Univ of Colorado data center for glaciology. Atmospheric CO2 will double by the end of the century due to burning fossil fuels. CO2 induced warming will be evident in the 1990s particularly in the melting of glaciers and polar ice caps. Glacial melting in the last century is explained primarily by global warming. There is a possibility of a seasonally open Arctic (after the summer melt) in the next century brought about by a doubling of atmospheric CO2 but it is unlikely because Arctic ice “is more stable than we thought”. The future is pretty scary all the same.
  15. 1985, WILL MOTHER NATURE’S SCREEN SAVE OUR CLIMATE? CO2 induced global warming is self correcting because warming increases cloud formation and clouds reflect sunlight back into space. Richard Somerville, Scripps Institute of Oceanography, UC San Diego.
  16. 1985, SAGAN WARNS, STOP GREENHOUSE EFFECT NOW, Carl Sagan testimony in Senate hearing. Global warming will flood coastal cities and turn Midwest farmlands into a dust bowl. The greenhouse effect makes life possible but too much or too little will kill it off.Use of fossil fuels is pushing earth into too much. The answer is to reduce fossil fuel consumption by switching to nuclear and solar.  If we do nothing we condemn our children and grandchildren to the effects of global warming. The greenhouse effect of fossil fuels is the most dangerous threat to mankind we have ever faced.
  17. 1985, RISING SEA LEVEL, The Polar Research Board of the National Academy of Sciences says that the sea level will rise 4-6 cm by 2000 and 12-27 cm by 2030 because global warming from the greenhouse effect will warm the oceans and melt glaciers and polar ice caps including Greenland.
  18. 1986, SCIENTISTS PREDICT CATASTROPHE IN GROWING GLOBAL HEAT WAVE, Scientists at Senate subcommittee hearing. The greenhouse effect will cause the earth to be warmer in he next decade than at any other time in the last 100,000 years and cause shoreline erosion, droughts, and other catastrophic changes just as the depletion of the ozone layer is doing.
  19. 1986, WARMING PANIC PREMATURE, presentation by NASA scientists to a Senate committee. The warnings of “greenhouse effect”  catastrophe by 2030 are overblown because the computer models used are not good enough to make those predictions. Northern hemisphere temperatures have declined in the last 50 years (since 1935). The National Research Council’s report of 1983 shows two warm years at the end of the record but that is not enough imply a warming trend. The Diaz and Quayle 1981 article in Monthly Weather Review shows a cooling trend from 1949 to 1979. The northern hemisphere temperature history detailed in the February 1986 issue of the Journal of Climate and Applied Meteorology does not show a warming trend. Although global warming is being promoted as “inescapable” and “undeniable” the caveat in the National Research Council’s 1983 paper says “we do not believe the overall pattern yet confirms temperature changes attributable to CO2”. The DOE’s 1985 report also makes similar caveats such as “the findings constitute insufficient evidence that the climate models are correctly projecting the effects of CO2 on climate”. Northern hemisphere ocean temperatures have not gone up since WW2. Since rising CO2 is not causing warming of the northern hemisphere there must be other more potent variables at work that are not in the model. An increase of 4% to 7% the formation of certain types of clouds could offset the heat effect of doubling CO2 (Bretherton and Coakley 1985). Yet, cirrus clouds are an unknown and not in the computer models.  Most of the computer models contain major limitations in oceanic heat transfer and changes in regional rainfall. The southern hemisphere is behaving differently and appears to be warming so perhaps the same will occur in the north eventually.
  20. 1988, GLOBAL WARMING HAS BEGUN, EXPERTS TELL SENATE: James Hansen of NASA tells the US Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee that “the earth has been warmer in the first five months of this year than in any comparable period since measurements began 130 years ago” and therefore that the effects of greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuels are now palpable. The nightmare has arrived, “the greenhouse effect is here” with the NYT reporting that “humans, by burning fossil fuels , have altered the global climate in a manner that will affect life on earth for centuries to come”. Southeast and Midwest states in the USA will experience “frequent episodes of very high temperatures and drought in the next decade and beyond”.
  21. 1988, CLIMATE CHANGE ALREADY HAPPENING, A buildup of carbon dioxide from the burning of fossil fuels  emitted by human activities into is causing the earth’s surface to warm by trapping infrared radiation from the sun and turning the entire earth into a kind of greenhouse – just as mathematical models had  predicted. Sometime between 2025 to 2050 the earth will be 3F to 9F warmer with higher latitudes 20F warmer. mathematical models had  predicted. Melting glaciers and polar ice and thermal expansion of the oceans will cause the sea level to rise by one to four feet by 2050.
  22. 1988, WARMEST YEAR EXPECTED, The hottest years on record occurred in the 1980s with the first 5 months of this year very hot. Just as the models had predicted, the rise in temperature is greater in high latitudes than in low, is greater over continents than oceans, and there is cooling in the upper atmosphere as the lower atmosphere warms up. Clearly, global warming by greenhouse gas emissions as predicted by these computer models has begun. “We can ascribe with a high degree of confidence a cause and effect relationship between the greenhouse effect and observed warming.” The snow is melting earlier each year and the rain belt is moving northwards.
  23. 1988, 35-NATION CONFERENCE ADDRESSES GLOBAL WARMING, A global warming meeting in Geneva will examine the scientific evidence. “The effort could lead to an international treaty to reduce the emission of carbon dioxide and other gases in the atmosphere that trap heat from the earth in a ”greenhouse effect” and to “justify actions by governments to limit and cope with climate change” . To mitigate global warming we must reduce the use of fossil fuels that produce carbon dioxide and also agree to further reductions in chlorofluorocarbons beyond the 50% reduction mandated in the Montreal Protocol. The global warming problem is real because ”We know that greenhouse gases are accumulating and in principle, they should lead to a global warming”.
  24. 1989, DEFORESTATION SPEEDS UP GLOBAL WARMING, Destruction of forests will speed up global warming because the drying forests will release carbon dioxide. We need a sharp reduction in the use of fossil fuels that produce carbon dioxide, and end to deforestation, and a program of reforestation. The re-development of nuclear power could also slow global warming. The world must immediately ratify a treaty to reduce the use of chlorofluorocarbons because they destroy ozone and contribute to global warming.
  25. 1989, GLOBAL WARMING STIRS STORM, “Despite Hansen’s assertions, there is widespread scientific disagreement over global warming trends. Some experts say there is no evidence that the climate has experienced any significant change over the past several decades.”
  26. 1989, FORECAST DISSENT ON GLOBAL WARMING, Skeptics are challenging dire greenhouse views” (NYT). Skeptics contend that forecasts of global warming are flawed and overstated and that the future might even hold no significant warming at all and that if the warming is modest, as they believe likely, it could bring benefits like longer growing seasons in temperate zones, more rain in dry areas and an enrichment of crops and plant life”. “It would be a mistake to take drastic and costly steps to limit emissions of carbon dioxide”. Much of the dissenters’ criticism is aimed at computerized mathematical models of the world’s climate on which forecasts of global warming are largely based. The critics also cite data on past climatic trends, and they say the theory of greenhouse warming has not yet been fully explored. “”We have an incomplete theory with a lot of bad science being done”. ” Current forecasts of global warming ”are so inaccurate and fraught with uncertainty as to be useless to policy-makers,” Richard S. Lindzen.
  27. 1989, RACE TO ASSESS GLOBAL WARMING, Scientists are using powerful computers and advanced mathematical models to simulate the world’s climate. The computer models predict that the greenhouse effect will make the earth warmer. The resulting climate change will have “important consequences for life on earth”. One problem is that the models don’t agree on what areas will suffer drought and where there will be increased precipitation. The dilemma faced by policymakers is that they don’t have information that is precise enough to make policy but if they wait for more precise information it may be too late to take effective action.
  28. 1990, SCIENTIFIC CONSENSUS CONFIRMS GLOBAL WARMING (NYT) Global warming will cause serious environmental damage starting early in the next century long before the maximum predicted temperature is reached. We must set limits beyond which the global temperature and sea level should not be permitted to rise to avoid serious and ever increasing risks posed by the continued flow of heat trapping gases into the atmosphere at present rates. The IPCC report serves as a prelude to the Second World Climate Conference in Geneva later this year.
  29. 1990, BUSH ADMINISTRATION COOL ON GLOBAL WARMING.(NYT)The Bush administration’s global warming policy is tepid because of conflicting views within the White House where some are skeptical of the computer models on which forecasts of global climate warming are based because these models have a history of past failures. These models are not good enough to form the basis for policy, they say, but that is only an excuse for inaction. Even though the computer models may not be precise, their forecasts are so grim that we must take corrective action immediately as we do not have to luxury of waiting until all the bugs are worked out. These actions should include preserving tropical forests, banning greenhouse chemicals, and increasing energy efficiency. 
  30. 1990, EXPERTS WARN ABOUT GLOBAL WARMING COSTS. A UN panel of international climate experts came out to strongly support the global warming theory saying that the buildup of CO2 from fossil fuel consumption lead to rising temperatures worldwide, altered weather patterns, lower food production, and rising sea levels. In the long run the cost of inaction exceeds the cost of mitigation. The panel put political pressure on President Bush who is not inclined to take costly measures against CO2 as long as there are credible scientists who oppose the global warming theory and as long as there is no “scientific consensus” on the issue. 
  31. 1991, PROMPT ACTION TO CURB GLOBAL WARMING THREAT,The National Academy of Sciences says US should act quickly to reduce carbon dioxide emissions by developing new generation nuclear power plants and by implementing reforestation, mass transit, and higher fuel efficiency standards for cars. The plan represents a compromise between the more extreme positions of the EPA and the Bush administration. Despite great uncertainties,global warming poses a threat sufficient to merit a prompt response. 
  32. 1991, COST OF REVERSING GREENHOUSE EFFECT WILL BE HIGH. There is division in the scientific community as to the existence and the extent of the greenhouse effect. Environmentalists say that a 20% reduction in CO2 emissions from the industrialized countries is needed. An energy saving program could reduce CO2 emissions by 35% over the next 25 years but it will be costly and it assumes technological breakthroughs. 
  33. 1991, COOLING IMPACT DISCLOSED. Burning fossil fuels produces aerosols that reflect sunlight and cool the earth. The resulting rise in temperature could more than offset the cooling achieved by reduction in CO2 emissions in the next 10 to 30 years according to an article in Nature by Prof Wigley, a climatologist at the University of East Anglia in England. The aerosol effect is a sleeping giant because it is something that has been missed and its effect is not trivial. It implies that reducing fossil fuel consumption will cause acceleration in global warming for 10 to 30 years before the gains from CO2 emission reduction kick in. 
  34. 1991, PANEL SAYS THE U.S. CAN ADAPT TO GLOBAL WARMING. (NYT), The National Academy of Sciences says that the cost of inaction is not high because the US can easily adapt to the effects of global warming due to the greenhouse effect of pollutants in the atmosphere. It is more costly to control the climate change than to adapt to it. Human adaptability has been grossly underestimated. A dissenting committee member said that indirect costs of global warming have not been adequately considered. The report said it might be harder for developing countries to adapt to global warming. It encouraged “efforts to advance regional mobility of people, capital and goods,” better preparations for disaster and famine relief and expansion of free-market economies, so that changing prices can serve as market signals that would encourage people to adapt to global warming. 
  35. 1992, TREATY TO CURB GLOBAL WARMING. Sixty nations sign an agreement at the Earth Summit in which they promise to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to 1990 levels. The agreement is not binding and there is no time table. 
  36. 1992, WHITE HOUSE VOWS ACTION TO CUT GLOBAL WARMING GASESThe concentration of greenhouse gases is growing because of human activity and that could lead to catastrophic warming of the earth in the next century. On the eve of the Earth Summit in Rio, the US is seen as uncooperative by the Europeans who insist on a year 2000 deadline for stabilizing CO2 emissions. The US supports increasing energy efficiency and a budget of $75 million in aid to developing countries to do likewise although it does not target CO2 stabilization. Global warming advocates say that this move is positive and shows that the US has abandoned the flat earth society of global warming deniers. 
  37. 1992, GLOBAL WARMING ANOMALY. Critics of global warming point out that their computer models predict a temperature rise of 1C for the last 100 years whereas the actual rise has been 0.5C; and that most of the warming in the last 100 years occurred prior to 1940 whereas most of the CO2 was added after that
  38. 1992, GLOBAL SNUB ON GLOBAL WARMING. To control rising temperatures due to the greenhouse effect of CO2, the Europeans want industrialized countries to put a cap on CO2 emission but the Bush administration is wary. The USA is seen as a laggard and an impediment to global action to ward off the potentially dangerous effects of global warming. A cost effective way to check global warming is for the USA to give foreign aid to developing countries like China to implement clean burning coal technologies. The impasse is that the USA is opposed to imposed CO2 emission caps. As it is, there are countries endorsing emission caps but not implementing programs to achieve them. The real cost of emission caps could be sky high. 
  39. 1993, CLINTON ADMINISTRATION: “CLIMATE CHANGEACTION PLAN”. Emissions of CO2, CH4, NO, and CFC have caused temperatures to rise by 0.5C in the last 100 years, and unchecked, global warming could cause melting glaciers and polar ice caps, rising sea level, flooded coastal areas,droughts, damaged ecosystems, and reduced agricultural production. The Clinton administration’s Action Plan proposes 44 action steps to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to 1990 levels by the year 2000 mainly by voluntary participation of business and industry. The plan is consistent with international efforts outlined by the Earth Summit in 1992. 
  40. 1993, SCIENTISTS CONFRONT RENEWED BACKLASH AGAINST GLOBAL WARMINGConservatives and industry groups attacked the Clinton Administration’s climate change action plan and the global warming scenario characterizing it as hysteria and a plan by socialists to control the economy. Two books, one by the Cato Institute and another by Dixy Lee Ray attacked the greenhouse effect hypothesis. The Washington Post and the Wall Street Journal published articles debunking global warming. A column by Jeffrey Salmon of the George C. Marshall Institute said that there was no scientific evidence that the earth is warming because of man-made greenhouse gases. Richard Lindzen of the MIT wrote that the heat trapping amplification through water vapor assumed by the global warming computer model is flawed and therefore that even a doubling of CO2 will have little effect on temperature. Other critics point out that the computer models can’t be right because they give incorrect and inconsistent results for known historical data. Although scientists disagree on global warming the political debate is more extreme than the scientific debate. 
  41. 1993, THE NEW YORK TIMES DEFENDS GLOBAL WARMING. There are two undisputed facts about global warming – carbon dioxide produced by burning fossil fuels has been accumulating in the atmosphere for a hundred years, and carbon dioxide traps heat ?reflected? from the earth’s surface that would otherwise radiate out to space. It only remains to compute exactly how much the earth will heat up after an amount of CO2 is injected into the atmosphere. Since a real world experiment is not possible it must be carried out in mathematical models on supercomputers that simulate the earth’s climate although these models are far from perfect. Scientists have examined the results from the best computer models and advised the UN that CO2 will double by 2100 and cause a temperature rise of somewhere between 3C and 5C. These findings are supported by leading experts in the field at the UN and the National Academy of Sciences. Although the amount of heat trapped by the minute amount of CO2 in the atmosphere is small, it snowballs because it causes water to evaporate and water vapor is also a heat trapping gas. The ability of computer models to predict temperature will be greatly improved once the aerosol effect of fossil fuels is incorporated. 
  42. 1993, PRESIDENT CLINTON’S PLAN TO HALT GLOBAL WARMING.Reduction of greenhouse gas emissions in millions of tons annually: energy efficiency in home and appliance design = 16.3, non-industrial private forest management = 9.5, private sector investment in efficient electrical motors =8.8, increased efficiency of public transit and transportation = 6.6, better regulation of chemical industry = 5.0, recycling and pollution prevention =4.2, methane recovery from landfills = 4.2, natural gas star program to reduce methane emission = 3.0, promote natural gas = 2.2, promote hydroelectricity = 2.0. Greenhouse gases include carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxides and hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs). 
  43. 1993, RISING SEAS A PRECISE MEASURE OF GLOBAL WARMING. Using the most accurate system ever devised for measuring global sea levels,scientists have found a steady rise of 3 mm per year for the past two years. These data now establish beyond any doubt that the greenhouse effect is causing global warming. If this trend continues for another few years it will be solid evidence of a warming trend related to increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide. Doubts about the reliability of older and less precise temperature data may now be put aside as the very accurate sea level data clearly establishes the scientific basis of global warming. The sea level measurement satellite of the Jet Propulsion Laboratory takes 500,000 sea level measurements per day. 
  44. 1994, GLOBAL WARMING MAY HELP U.S. AGRICULTURE,(NYT). Civilization is playing a high stakes game with mother nature by emitting heat trapping greenhouse gases that could forever alter our fragile ecosystem in catastrophic ways. The planet is going to get hotter with radically altered weather and rainfall patterns. Yet, a new study appears to show that its effect on American agriculture will not be the dust bowl catastrophe that was once predicted. In fact, global warming is now expected to benefit American agriculture by greatly increasing crop yields. It will be a lot harder in the wake of this study to motivate the American will to fight global warming. It was once predicted that although Canadian and Russian farmers would gain from longer growing seasons, American farmers would lose more than $20 billion per year with “corn blistering on the stalk”. These studies were based on the inability of U.S. farmers to adapt to changes. If farmers change the crops they grow as the climate changes, they will not lose but in fact may gain in the net. 
  45. 1994, HOT AIR ON GLOBAL WARMINGThe Clinton Plan of Action against global warming is “so much hot air” because it is too vague and not practical. It is typically Clintonian window dressing to give the appearance of doing something. 
    After a three year hiatus and a bitter winter in 1993-1994, the warming trend has returned with a warmer than usual winter in 1994-1995. Global warming is not gone, it was just temporarily interrupted by the 1991 eruption of Mount Pinatubo. Aerosols in the upper atmosphere from the eruption reflected sunlight and cooled the earth. In 1994, temperatures rebounded to the levels of the 1980s – the warmest decade on record –reaching the record high of 60C reached in 1990. Global temperatures from March to December were the warmest since 1951. The mainstream view among researchers on climatic change is that atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases could double by the end of the next century and that this could produce a global warming of 1.5C to 4.5C. By comparison, the earth is 3C to 5C warmer now than in the last ice age, which ended about 10,000 years ago. A 2C warming,could cause ice at the poles to melt, rising sea levels, shifting climatic zones, and more extreme floods, droughts, storms, and cold and heat waves. Violent and frequent weather extremes have become more common since 1980.
    Global warming will bring altered crop growing seasons, more severe storms, more tropical diseases, and the inundation of low lying areas by rising seas. As to the cause, the scientific debate about whether the warming is a natural variation or caused by man has now been settled. scientific consensus due to advances in computer modeling has emerged that the cause of the warming is the greenhouse effect of carbon dioxide emitted by man’s fossil fuel consumption. This finding is issued in a new report of the UN-IPCC panel of scientists and is based on the best data and science available. These findings are now beyond question. The debate as to the cause of the warming in the last 100 years is now over. The job now is to implement worldwide emission reduction plans to reverse this trend. If no action is taken global temperatures will rise 1.5C to 4.5C in the next 100 years. It is a very significant rise if you consider that 3C can make the difference between an ice age and an interglacial. Emission reduction starting right now could limit the warming to 0.5C to 2C. The warming cannot be stopped because the CO2 that is already in the air will continue to trap heat. Although it is impossible to know for sure to what extent global warming is caused by man, it only makes sense, in light of the new scientific consensus, to work with other nations to curb greenhouse gas emissions.
    UN-IPCC scientists issued a report in Dec 1995 saying that the warming of the earth by 0.5C in the last 100 years is the biggest since the last ice age and is not within the range of natural variability. Therefore it must represent a man made influence on global climate.Periods of cooling during the overall warming period can be explained in terms of global warming.
    Just four days after scientists announced on Jan 3 1996 that global temperatures had crept to a record high in 1995, the Northeast US was hit by record cold and snowfall but scientists say that the blizzard of 1996 as well as the bitter cold in Europe were actually caused by global warming because warming increases evaporation that in turn increases precipitation. Besides, the effects of global warming are small compared with seasonal variations and so severe winters are not necessarily incompatible with global warming. The bitter winter this year represents a southward bulge of the Arctic air mass and not a cooling trend.
    (NYT) According to UN scientists, there are serious threats to public health if actions to reduce global warming come too slowly. The earth’s climate will change rapidly in the coming century as greenhouse gases trap solar radiation. Thousands could die in major cities in heat waves and tens of millions will face malaria epidemics in areas where the disease does not now occur. Last July a heat wave killed 465 people in Chicago alone. This is an issue that must be taken seriously. Climate negotiators are warned against taking a wait and see attitude because the consequences of inaction are dire. We must act quickly even as industry backed lobbyists call for a go slow approach fearing harm to economic growth.The voluntary approach in the USA is not working as emissions have continued to rise since the 1992 treaty at the Earth Summit. Carbon dioxide emissions rose 12% from 1990 to 1995. Immediate action is needed to reverse this trend. Because adverse public health is likely to result from climate change, we do not have the luxury of seeking definitive empirical evidence before acting.
  51. 1996, UN IPCC REPORT
    Ahead of Geneva, the second follow up meeting on global warming after the Earth Summit in Rio, the UN IPCC has issued a report that says that humans are influencing global climate. Excerpts from the report issued in June 1996 say that Earth’s temperature will rise by 2C in the next 100 years with serious negative effects. Extreme temperatures will become normal. Habitats will change. Many plants and animals will become extinct. Some regions will suffer water shortages. Polar ice will melt. The sea level will rise. Emissions of greenhouse gases that trap solar energy will double by the year 2010. A 50% reduction in emissions over the next 50 years is needed to reverse the warming trend. We are currently not on track to meet emission reduction guidelines set in the 1992 Earth Summit in Rio. Yet the Rio commitments are not enough to halt global warming.
    As an endorsement of the IPCC report the Clinton administration is urging 150 nations meeting in Geneva to agree to binding cuts on greenhouse gas emissions to control global warming as long as the targets are moderate and achievable; although many feel that Clinton is playing politics with global warming in an effort to garner the green vote. Ratification of binding reductions in the Republican controlled Congress is unlikely.
    Twenty years of hard data from meteorological stations and nature show a clear warming trend. Growth rings in Mongolian and Canadian trees are getting wider. Butterflies in California are moving to higher ground once too cold for butterflies. Stalactites in Britain are growing faster. The growing season for crops in Australia is getting longer. Permafrost in Siberia and Canada is melting. The evidence is there anywhere you look. A warming rate is one 1C per century is enough to wreak havoc. The cause is the greenhouse effect of CO2 emissions from fossil fuels as well as CFCs and HCFCs that trap heat. The effect is being compounded as deforestation simultaneously removes trees that absorb CO2. Some scientists are skeptical but the majority view is that the greenhouse effect is real and it requires urgent action. This conclusion rests on the results from sophisticated computer simulation models that give the best possible information on this topic even though they are not perfect. These models are giving us scary accounts of the future and we should be paying attention. The IPCC tell us that melting ice and thermal expansion of oceans will cause the sea level to rise one meter by 2037 and inundate low lying areas and island nations. Extreme weather events will become common. El Nino and La Nina cycles will become more extreme. There will be millions of climate refugees driven from their home by global warming. Some regions of the world will become hotter, others colder, some wetter, others drier. Entire weather systems will be dramatically altered. The Gulf Stream will switch off making Europe colder. Tropical diseases such as malaria will ravage the world as vectors migrate to higher latitudes and altitudes. Some wheat farmers may be able to grow more wheat but the net effect of global warming is overwhelmingly negative.
  54. 1997, THE ROAD TO KYOTO
    In the Earth Summit of 1992 developed nations promised to hold their year 2000 greenhouse gas emissions to 1990 levels but they have not acted because of the perceived economic impact of cutting emissions. Forecasts show that CO2 emissions in 2000 will be 14% above 1990 levels. Research in the USA and Australia show that reduced emissions will mean reduced living standards while those in Europe indicate emission reduction will actually have a positive effect on the economy. The industrial lobby is stronger in the USA and it is opposed to emission reduction. The Earth Summit agreement has no teeth because it cannot be enforced. The upcoming meeting in Kyoto in December is expected to address these deficiencies with legally binding cuts in greenhouse gas on a timetable.
    (LA Times) The USA is out of sync with the rest of the world in the crucial ecological issue of global warming. President Clinton’s statement was met with disdain in Bonn where 150 nations are meeting to control global warming. The U.S. is seen as an environmental pariah in this meeting.
    Entire nations among the Pacific islands vanish beneath the waves, coastal communities in the USA from North Carolina to the Texas Gulf wash out to sea, wild swings in precipitation first bring drought and then torrential rains and floods, coastal mudslides in California become routine, and maple trees of the North die out as dengue fever and mosquito borne encephalitis move in. In December delegates from 167 nations will go to Kyoto to write a binding treaty among nations to fight against carbon dioxide emissions and save the planet. There are serious implications for humanity if actions to curb global warming come too slowly.
    (Chicago Tribune, climate denier?) The Union of Concerned Scientists, President Clinton, and VP Gore have repeatedly stated that “the threat of global warming is real and it is already here”. Yet, the IPCC has admitted that none of their computer models of climate has been validated by the record. Man made emissions of carbon dioxide are so small compared to natural emissions that they could not possibly cause climate change.
    A global warming summit of 150 nations opened in Kyoto Monday. Its agenda is to reduce greenhouse gas emissions that are causing potentially catastrophic increase of carbon dioxide in the earth’s atmosphere. The summit is dogged by contentious economic, political, and scientific questions. “People are still very cautious about acting on climate change because they count the economic costs but not the benefits”.
    (CNN) Climate delegates in Kyoto are working overtime to forge a treaty to cut greenhouse gas emissions. Greenhouse gas emission reduction targets of 6%-8% below 1990 levels by 2008 have been set for 34 industrialized nations. None has been set for developing countries. Contentious issues remain. They include the twin American proposals to allow the industrialized nations to achieve their reduction target by buying carbon credits and offsets from developing countries; and the imposition of binding emission cuts on four non-industrialized countries, namely, China, India, Brazil, and Mexico to prevent these emerging economies from gaining from unfair competition. U.S. ratification is not likely without these provisions.
    “Without reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, scientists warn that carbon dioxide in the atmosphere could double in the next century, warming the atmosphere and triggering an environmental chain reaction that could raise sea levels, change ocean currents and intensify damage from storms, droughts and the spread of tropical diseases” (CNN).
    Last year was the hottest year on record and this decade has already produced 9 of the 11 hottest years of the century. The data show that man made greenhouse gases are causing a potentially disastrous warming of the earth. These data should help Pres. Clinton as he seeks Senate approval for the Kyoto Treaty. That there is a human component in the rising temperature is becoming clearer with each year’s measurements and the likelihood that the rising temperature is a natural phenomenon is becoming increasingly remote. For the last three years the data have pointed in the direction of man made global warming.
    Delegates in Kyoto hammered out a treaty that sets 2000 as the deadline for creating a a global mechanism to police emissions reductions of greenhouse gases that cause global warming and to hold failing nations accountable. The treaty allows industrialized nations to meet emission reduction targets by trading emission credits or funding clean air projects in poor nations. In the USA there is stiff opposition from Senate opponents who demand similar emission reduction by developing countries.
    The debate on global warming started with the scientific question about whether the problem was real and evolved into an economic and political debate between developed and developing countries on who should act to reduce emissions. At the global warming conference in Buenos Aires this weekend the USA signed on to the Kyoto Accord but there is stiff opposition to ratification in the Senate without an equal commitment by developing nations.
    Satellite measurements of temperatures of the lower troposphere show a cooling trend from 1979 to 1995 contradicting the warming trend in ground based temperatures. However, this discrepancy can be offset by revising the satellite measurements with the “falling satellite effect”. As the satellite slows and drops the instrument perceives the same temperature as cooler. The amount of this revision is in dispute. It could be insignificant or it could be enough to make the apparent cooling trend into a warming trend again. NASA scientist James Hansen says that the perceived cooling is just an artifact of the falling satellite phenomenon and not real but John Christy of the University of Alabama Huntsville says that the corrected satellite data do not show warming.
    Climate scientists in the Hadley Center on Climate Change have issued a report on global warming timed to coincide with the meeting in Buenos Aires where delegates from 180 nations are meeting to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The findings of the report based on a computer model for the case with no emission reductions are as follows: 1998 will be UK’s hottest year since 1106, “the warmest year of the millennium”; sometime between 2041 and 2070 we will see a sharp rise in sick, hungry, and thirsty people; by 2048 the world’s forests will become so degraded that they will change from net CO2 sinks to net CO2 producers further accelerating global warming; human greenhouse gas emissions have contributed substantially to global warming over the past half century; the climate model is validated by its ability to reconstruct the last 150 years of climate conditions; the 1997-1998 ElNino is the most extreme on record; in the next 100 years global temperatures will rise by 6C – the most extreme in the last 10,000 years. The Amazon forest will die out and rot releasing carbon dioxide. Tropical grasslands will be transformed into deserts. For the first half of the 21st century, vegetation will absorb CO2 at a rate of about 2-3 GtC per year while human emissions of CO2 are about 7GtC a year. From 2050 onwards, vegetation dying under the impact of climate change will itself add about 2GtC a year to greenhouse emissions, further intensifying global warming. Global warming will accelerat due to “positive feedback” – a way by which the global warming we have caused will itself cause further global warming. More than 170 million people will suffer from water shortage. Crop yields will increase in areas like Canada and Europe, but nearer the equator they will shrink. Some 18% more of Africa’s people will be at risk of hunger simply because of climate change. Sea levels will rise by 21 cm inundating 20 million people. Malaria infection will increase, and spread to areas where it is not currently seen. The overwhelming consensus of scientific opinion is that climate change is real, and that we are playing the chief part in causing it. The report confirms previous findings of the panel of scientists at the IPCC, “the world’s most authoritative group of climatologists”.
  66. 1998, GORE CLAIMS NEW DATA PROVE GLOBAL WARMING IS TAKING PLACE. The first half of 1998 was the warmest six months ever recorded on earth. The month of July, 1998 will also set a record. A heat wave in the Southwest has caused dozens of deaths with the hottest weather to hit the state since 1980. Tuesday was the 9th straight day that the temperature there has broken 100F. The heat wave is accompanied by drought that will drain $4.6 billion from the Texas economy in the next few months. Oklahoma had 6 deaths and Louisiana 20 deaths from the heat wave. According to NOAA data the near surface temperature for June 1998 over both land and water were at an all time high. There is no time in data history that we have seen this sequence of record setting for six consecutive months. It is compelling evidence that global temperatures are on a long term warming track. These are evidence of long term warming of the planet by man’s greenhouse gas emissions. How much more proof do we need that global warming is real? Congress must not block efforts by the White House to reduce heat trapping greenhouse gases.
  67. 1999, STUDY SHOWS ARCTIC ICE SHRINKING BECAUSE OF GLOBAL WARMING. Sea ice in the Arctic Basin is shrinking by 14000 square miles per year “probably” because of global warming caused by human activity according to a new international study that used 46 years of data and sophisticated computer simulation models to tackle the specific question of whether the loss of Arctic ice is a natural variation or caused by global warming. The computer model says that the probability that these changes were caused by natural variation is 1% but when global warming was added to the model the ice melt was a perfect fit. Therefore the ice melt is caused by human activities that emit greenhouse gases.
    An article in the Journal Science says that the melting of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet is a natural event not related to global warming contrary to claims by climate scientists. The WAIS is indeed melting quite rapidly receding at the rate of 400 feet per year but it has been doing so for thousands of years long before human activity and greenhouse gas emissions, having receded 800 miles since the last ice age. If the process continues unchecked it will melt completely in another 7000 years.Therefore it seems unlikely that the event is linked to human activity or that the time frame of a collapse of the ice shelf could fall within 100 years.
  69. 1999, WARM ARCTIC MAY ENHANCE GLOBAL WARMING. A sophisticated computer simulation model shows that increasing the temperature or snowfall on the Arctic tundra can triple its CO2 emissions from the soil of the tundra. The Arctic contains 1/3 of the earth’s soil stored carbon dioxide. The computer model shows a positive feedback look that can cause global warming to snowball because warming in itself can increase carbon dioxide in the air and accelerate the rate of warming. It is a frightening scenario that could cause global warming catastrophe to occur sooner than previously thought.
  70. Note: This period is marked by 1.The Kyoto Protocol and the warm-up meetings in Geneva and Bonn, 2.Differences between the USA and Europe in Kyoto, 3.The differences between land based and satellite based temperature measurements, 4.A sharp rise in scientific rhetoric to rally policy makers to their cause in Kyoto, 5.The bitter northern winter of 1995-1996 and its explanation in terms of global warming. 6. The 1998 climate conference in Buenos Aires, 7.The Clinton administration’s apparent endorsement of the global warming agenda,
    Rapidly warming seas caused by global warming has turned coral reefs into endangered ecosystems. According to coral reef scientists meeting in Bali, 25% of the world’s coral reefs are already gone. Without urgent and immediate CO2 emission reductions coral reefs will be completely gone from the planet in 30 to 50 years.
    According to John Christy, satellite data show temperature of the upper atmosphere has been cooling by 0.3C per year since 1979. Climate scientists point out that warming of the surface and cooling of the upper atmosphere are not necessarily inconsistent if you take into account things like the Mt Pinatubo volcanic eruption and ozone depletion. It is possible for the upper atmosphere to cool while the earth’s surface is warming because volcanic debris in the stratosphere occludes sunlight and ozone depletion lowers the amount of heat being absorbed in the upper atmosphere.
    According to an IPCC panel of scientists, human activities that release greenhouse gases like CO2 into the atmosphere are at least partially responsible for global warming because greenhouse gases trap heat reflected from the surface of the earth. The consequent global warming will raise surface temperature by between 1C and 3.5C by the year 2100. The warming will cause melting ice and thermal expansion of the oceans and raise sea levels by between one and three feet and flood coastal areas. There will be an increase in the intensity and frequency of extreme weather such as storms,droughts, and floods. Tropical diseases will spread into a pandemic. Plants and animals that fail to adapt to these changes will die off in waves of extinctions and loss of biodiversity.
    The Kyoto Protocol will cause the economies of industrialized nations to suffer and give developing countries an unfair advantage in global trade. China, with a booming, coal-based economy, is projected to zoom past the United States in greenhouse emissions by 2025.
    blue-ribbon panel of climate scientists from the National Academy of Sciences has issued a report saying that “global warming is undoubtedly real” and it is under way with dire consequences to follow. Global temperatures have risen more sharply in the last 20 years than at any time this century. The contradictory evidence from satellite data showing cooling of the upper atmosphere are irrelevant. There is no mention in the report of a link between global warming and human activity.
    The UN climate meeting in the Hague has collapsed in disarray over disagreements between the EU and the USA on how to curb greenhouse gas emissions. At issue is the use of “sinks” in the emission accounting with the USA saying that it should be able to use existing forests and agriculture as carbon sinks. Nations have been arguing over contentious positions on how they can do as little as possible to technically reach Kyoto targets. Under the Kyoto Protocol,worldwide emissions of heat-trapping gases must decline to 5.2 percent below 1990 levels by 2012.
    A 500-member IPCC led by Sir John Houghton issued the most authoritative report on global warming so far. It contains the following alarming findings: so much CO2 has already been injected into the air that global warming is “already unstoppable”; the world is warming at an accelerating rate; tens of millions of people around the world will be driven from their homes in the coming decades to become climate change refugees; governments must take urgent action to reduce carbon dioxide emissions; climate change is now so rapid that it is not possible for us to adapt to these changes; human ecosystems and biodiversity will all be affected and it will affect the world economy; the temperature rise in the next 100 years will be between 1.4C and 5.8C, significantly higher than previously thought; “there is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the past 50 years is attributable to human activities; human influences will continue to change atmospheric composition throughout the 21st century; global warming will persist for many centuries by virtue of the CO2 we have already put into the air; change caused by humans is far greater than the changes due to nature; global warming is caused by carbon dioxide trapping heat.
    (Time) A study of global warming by the National Academy of Sciences ordered by President Bush has concluded, to the President’s chagrin, that, despite the uncertainties about global warming, it is real and that it is not natural but caused by human activities that produce greenhouse gases. The Bush team was surprised and “shocked” by the report which went counter to their stance on global warming which saw the issue as a left wing conspiracy to take control of energy policy. The report comes just in time for a trip by the President to Europe where leaders are furious with the US for not joining the Kyoto Protocol. Having rejected Kyoto out of hand W, now having to cede some ground to the Europeans, admitted that global warming was a problem.
    Researchers say that Mars, too, may be a victim of global warming. The planet’s solid carbon-dioxide polar caps seem to have receded over the past Martian year (687 days). The more they evaporate, the more the atmosphere warms.
    A report by the National Research Council (USA) says that global warming may trigger climate changes so abrupt that ecosystems will not be able to adapt. Look for local or short term cooling, floods, droughts, and other unexpected changes. A growing CO2 concentration in the atmosphere due to the use of fossil fuels is to blame. Some regional climates have changed by as much as 10C in 10 years. Antarctica’s largest glaciers are rapidly thinning, and in the last 10 years have lost up to 150 feet of thickness in some places, enough to raise global sea levels by 0.4 mm. Global warming is a real problem and it is getting worse.
  81. 2001, IPCC REPORT
    Carbon dioxide from unhindered burning of fossil fuels will raise earth’s temperature 5.8C by 2100. The work of the panel over the last 10 years has now effectively ended the debate about man made global warming It is time for governments to get serious about reducing emissions.No country can afford to ignore the coming transformation of its natural and human environment. The poor and vulnerable are at greatest risk.
    Japan, the 4th largest CO2 emitter in the world ratified the Kyoto Protocol to reduce emissions and urged other industrialized nations to follow suit.
    A piece of ice the size of Rhode island broke off the Larsen ice shelf in Antarctica and within a month it dissipated sending a huge flotsam of ice into the sea. At about the same time an iceberg the size of Delawarebroke off the Thwaites Glacier. A few months ago parts of the Ross ice shelf had broken off in a similar way. These events serve as a dramatic reminders that global warming is real and its effects are potentially catastrophic and underscores the urgent need for a binding international agreement to cut greenhouse gas emissions.
    In major U-turn by the USA, the EPA has acknowledged for the first time that greenhouse gas emissions from human activity cause global warming but stopped short of endorsing the Kyoto Protocol as all 15 EU nations have done choosing instead to follow a voluntary emission reduction program of its own design. The EPA report is contrary to the position of the White House. President Bush distanced himself from the report saying that it was “put out by the bureaucracy” and that the report itself had caveats with respect to the uncertainties inherent in global warming science.
    The 2002 EPA report endorses the global warming theory that underlies the Kyoto Protocol saying that “Greenhouse gases are accumulating in the Earth’s atmosphere as a result of human activities, causing global mean surface air temperatures and subsurface ocean temperatures to rise”. Other excerpts: US greenhouse gas emissions will rise 43% from 2000 to 2020; a few ecosystems, such as alpine meadows in the Rocky Mountains and some barrier islands, are likely to disappear
    entirely; changes observed over the last several decades are likely due to human activities. It concludes that global warming is a threat and that it can be mitigated by reducing carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels.
    Soot that lands on snow has caused ¼ of the warming since 1880 because dirty snow traps more solar heat than pristine snow and induces a strong warming effect, according to a new computer model by James Hansen of NASA. It explains why sea ice and glaciers are melting faster than they should. Reducing soot emissions is an effective tool to curb global warming. It is easier to cut soot emissions than it is to cut CO2 emissions but we still need to reduce CO2 emissions in order to stabilize the atmosphere.
    (UNEP report) Global warming will melt snow at lower altitudes forcing ski areas to move higher and higher up the mountain. Downhill skiing could disappear altogether in some resorts. A retreating snow line will cut off base villages from their ski runs by 2030. Climate change is happening now and we can measure it. Traditional low altitude ski resorts of Europe will have to either shut down or suffer higher costs of snow making. Global warming will push the altitude for ski resorts from 4265 feet to 4900-6000 feet. In Switzerland,several low-lying resorts are already having problems getting bank loans. Austria’s snow line is set to rise by 656 to 984 feet in the next 30-50 years leaving many ski resorts behind. Banks are now less willing to lend money to ski resorts. Temperatures are set to rise by 2C to 6C by 2100 unless dramatic action is taken to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, according to the IPCC, a body of 2000 scientists.
    Global warming has unleashed massive ecological changes that are already under way. These changes are ushering in a grim future including massive species extinctions, an elevation of sea levels by 3 feet, wholesale changes to the Arctic, and disruptions to the earth’s life support system. These changes should serve as a wake up call to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
    Observed impacts of global climate change in the US. Global warming is plain to see if you look at how it has affected wildlife. Half of the 150 species studied showed these effects. Global warming is changing life in your own back yard. Many species are going extinct in the southern edge of their range and doing better in the northern edge. Edith’s checkerspot butterfly is in sharp decline near the Mexico-California border where it has become too warm and dry, but their numbers are rising in British Columbia. The red fox is heading north and can now be found in the Arctic. In Florida and the Gulf coast people are seeing many many new species coming up from Mexico and the Caribbean. A previous worldwide study of 1500 species showed that this effect is global.
    An unprecedented 4-year study of the Arctic shows that polar bears, walruses, and some seals are becoming extinctArctic summer sea ice may disappear entirely. Combined with a rapidly melting Greenland ice sheet, it will raise the sea level 3 feet by 2100 inundating lowlands from Florida to Bangladesh. Average winter temperatures in Alaska and the rest of the Arctic are projected to rise an additional 7 to 13 degrees over the next 100 years because of increasing emissions of greenhouse gases from human activities. The area is warming twice as fast as anywhere else because of global air circulation patterns and natural feedback loops, such as less ice reflecting sunlight, leading to increased warming at ground level and more ice melt. Native peoples’ ways of life are threatened. Animal migration patterns have changed, and the thin sea ice and thawing tundra make it too dangerous for humans to hunt and travel.
    Eight states and the City of New York have sued five electric power public utilities for failing to cut greenhouse gas emissions and for causing global warming. They are demanding emission reductions of 3% per year for 10 years. Currently carbon dioxide is not recognized as a pollutant by the Clean Air Act and the federal govt is therefore accused of abdicating its responsibility in the matter.
    A meltdown of the massive ice sheet, which is more than 3km-thick would raise sea levels by an average seven meters, threatening countries such as Bangladesh, certain islands in the Pacific and some parts of Florida. Greenland’s huge ice sheet could melt within the next thousand years if emissions of carbon dioxide (CO
    2) and global warming are not reduced.
    The Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA) report says: increasing greenhouse gases from human activities is causing the Arctic to warm twice as fast as the rest of the planet; in Alaska, western Canada, and eastern Russia winter temperatures have risen by 2C to 4C in the last 50 years; the Arctic will warm by 4C to 7C by 2100. A portion of Greenland’s ice sheet will melt; global sea levels will rise; global warming will intensify. Greenland contains enough melting ice to raise sea levels by 7 meters; Bangkok, Manila, Dhaka, Florida, Louisiana, and New Jersey are at risk of inundation; thawing permafrost and rising seas threaten Arctic coastal regions; climate change will accelerate and bring about profound ecological and social changes; the Arctic is experiencing the most rapid and severe climate change on earth and it’s going to get a lot worse; Arctic summer sea ice will decline by 50% to 100%polar bears will be driven towards extinction; this report is an urgent SOS for the Arctic; forest fires and insect infestations will increase in frequency and intensity; changing vegetation and rising sea levels will shrink the tundra to its lowest level in 21000 years; vanishing breeding areas for birds and grazing areas for animals will cause extinctions of many species; “if we limit emission of heat trapping carbon dioxide we can still help protect the Arctic and slow global warming”.
    Hollywood released a movie called “The day after tomorrow”, a dramatization of the horrors of global warming complete with superstorms, and a “climate shift”. There is death and destruction on a global scale Hollywood style. It is promoted by the global warming camp as “a teachable moment” and derided by skeptics as goofy. It helps to dramatically increase public support for global warming issues and for reduction of carbon dioxide emissions.
    The Arctic ice cap is shrinking at an unprecedented rate and will be gone by 2070. It has shrunk by 15%to 20% in the last 30 years. This process will accelerate with the Arctic warming twice as fast as the rest of the world due to a buildup of heat trapping greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.The findings support the broad scientific consensus that global warming is caused mainly by rising atmospheric greenhouse gases as a result of emissions from cars, factories and power plants.
    A high level of interest in tropical cyclones derives from an unusually active hurricane season in 2004 when more than 14 tropical cyclones formed in the North Atlantic basin. Four of these storms intensified to Category 4 or greater and made landfall in the USA causing considerable damage. The even more dramatic 2005 season followed in its heels with more than thirty depressions. Four of them intensified to Category 5 and three made landfall. The most intense was Hurricane Wilma but the most spectacular was Hurricane Katrina which made landfall in Florida and again in Louisiana. Its devastation was facilitated by a breach in a levee system that was unrelated to AGW but its dramatic consequences made it an icon of the possible extreme weather impacts of fossil fuel caused global warming. Climate scientists stepped up quickly and said that Katrina was confirmed as a climate change even by climate models. More info: [LINK]
    Man-made global warming is melting the vast peat bogs of Siberia. The melt will release enough methane and carbon dioxide to bring about climate change Armageddon by virtue of a positive feedback and its non-linear process gone berserk. This scare is repeated in 2007 saying that global warming is causing the Alaska coast to melt. More info: [LINK]
    Climate scientists see all coral bleaching as anomalous and unnatural and therefore symptoms of human caused global warming, as if they had never seen coral bleaching before. In 2006, they issued an alarm that “it was already too late for the coral” because we have put too much CO2 into the atmosphere and the warming and acidification of the oceans thus caused will kill off all the world’s coral. More info: [LINK]
    It has been more than a year now that scientists and climate experts sought a budget of 100 billion baht to build a sea wall 80 kilometers long from the mouth of the Ta Chin river to the Bang Pakong river to protect the city of Bangkok from being inundated by the sea that was projected to rise by 20 cm per year due to man-made global warming. More info: [LINK]
    Ahead of the Bali meeting in 2007, climate scientists flooded the media with press releases that were increasingly alarmist in their pitch to save the planet from fossil fuels, so much so that they got carried away and announced that it was too late to save the planet for we had passed the tipping point because the damage done by the carbon dioxide already in the air had put into motion irreversible non-linear changes that would lead us to climate doom whether or not we cut emissions. Soon thereafter, having realized their folly, they quickly reversed themselves just in time for Bali by saying that there was still time to save the planet after all. More info: [LINK]
    A comparison of Landsat photos taken on 8/11/1985 and 9/5/2002 shows that global warming caused by our use of fossil fuels is melting the massive Greenland ice sheet and exposing the rocky peninsula beneath the ice previously covered by ice. More info: [LINK]
    The rate of retreat of the retreating Gangotri glacier in the Himalayan mountains has accelerated from 19 meters/yr in 1971 to 34 meters/yr in 2001. Extrapolated of the observed acceleration forward shows that global warming devastation due to carbon dioxide was only a decade away for people who depend on the Ganges and other rivers with headwaters in the Himalayas. More info: [LINK]
    Global warming caused by our use of fossil fuels has devastated the Andes Mountains in South America where they are losing their ice and water supplies. We must help these poor people by reducing fossil fuel emissions and thereby curbing global warming and climate change. More info: [LINK]
    Climate science declares that the low sea ice extent in the Arctic is the leading indicator of climate change. We are told that the Arctic “is screaming”, that Arctic sea ice extent is the “canary in the coal mine”, and that Polar Bears and other creatures in the Arctic are dying off and facing imminent extinction. Scientists say that the melting sea ice has set up a positive feedback system that would cause the summer melts in subsequent years to be greater and greater until the Arctic becomes ice free in the summer of 2012. We must take action immediately to cut carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels. [LINK]
    The unusual summer melt of Arctic sea ice in 2007 has encouraged climate science to warn the world that global warming will cause a steep decline in the amount of ice left in subsequent summer melts until the Arctic becomes ice free in summer and that could happen as soon as 2080 or maybe 2060 or it could even be 2030. This time table got shorter and shorter until, without a “scientific” explanation, the ice free year was brought up to 2013. In the meantime, the data showed that in 2008 and 2009 the summer melt did not progressively increase as predicted but did just the opposite by making a comeback in 2008 that got even stronger in 2009. More info:  [LINK]
    In the Bali climate meeting scientists declare economic development is a bad thing because hurricanes, cyclones, snowstorms, and floods are killing people as a result of the war on nature waged by humanity in pursuit of economic development. More info: [LINK]
    In the UNFCCC and Kyoto Protocol climate action plan, only the rich industrialized Annex-1 and Annex-2 countries have emissions reduction and other climate action obligations. Poor developing countries, classified as non-Annex, have no climate action obligation but in fact are allowed to increase their emissions to achieve economic development and property alleviation. Yet development agencies like the UNDP and development banks, particularly the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank, whose stated mission is to help developing countries to develop are using their leverage with the poor instead to trick them into climate action by refusing development assistance for projects that violate the climate action and emission reduction standards of rich countries. These actions are illegal and criminal. More info: [LINK]
    A semi-arid region subject to droughts and supplied by melt water from evanescent glaciers that have come and gone in cycles for thousands of years is selected by climate scientists to show that fossil fuel emissions cause drought. More info: [LINK]
    Since 1998, and most recently in 2007, we have been told on a fairly regular basis that climate change caused by our use of fossil fuels has reached the “tipping point”. When asked to define the term they said that it is not a point of no return and that a definition would be forthcoming; but that there is no doubt that we have reached the tipping point in 2007. More info: [LINK]
    The Civil Society Coalition on Climate Change has published a report showing that the mortality rate from extreme weather events in the period 1990-2006 is almost half of that for the prior 90 years of the 20th century and that this mortality rate is not rising but has been falling steadily since 1920. Climate scientists say that this report is not credible because its authors are in the pay of oil companies. More info: [LINK]
    The penguins are flightless and not well dispersed and therefore at risk of extinction but that extinction, if it happens, will lead to a new species and even greater biodiversity. This is how nature works. Nature does not need environmentalists, much less UN bureaucrats, to micromanage these processes nor is such micromanagement possible. More info: [LINK]
    Climate scientists say that errors in their climate model do not detract from the importance of reducing greenhouse gas emissions because the reduction can only do good and can do no harm. They also warn us that contrarians that say otherwise are paid agents of the fossil fuel industry and not real scientists. More info: [LINK]
    Climate scientists say that at the current rate of increase in the use of fossil fuels, the sea level would rise by 7 meters in 100 years and devastate low-lying countries like Bangladesh. When these estimates were challenged and their internal inconsistencies exposed, the IPCC quietly revised the 100-year forecast downward 100-fold from 7 meters to 7 centimeters on their website but the news media alarm about 7 meters continued unabated with “thousands of years” quietly inserted in place of “100 years. More info: [LINK]
    Climate scientists say that Venus represents earth’s fate if we don’t reduce greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuels. It is yet another desperate attempt to scare us into going along with their war against fossil fuels. More info: [LINK]
    Scientists say that an effect of greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuels is that droughts, floods, landslides, and rising sea levels are becoming commonplace in Indonesia. More info: [LINK]
    Tropical cyclones over the Bay of Bengal that make landfall in Bangladesh with the severity of Cyclone Sidr or greater are common. The mother of them all was the cyclone of 1970. It killed 550,000 people and the devastation eventually led to the birth of the country we know as Bangladesh. It is not possible to represent these events as evidence that CO2 from rich countries is devastating poor countries. More info: [LINK]
    The Kiribati and Tuvalu islands are atolls and atolls often sink by subduction. Bangladesh is a delta where its natural dynamics contain sand spit formation and erosion. The Darfur area is semi-arid and prone to droughts. The North Atlantic Basin is an active tropical cyclone area known for occasional severe storms.
    The entire case presented by climate science against greenhouse gases in terms of such fearmongering rests on forecasts that are so far in the future that they can’t be proven wrong. More info: [LINK]
    The Thailand meteorology department having subscribed headlong into the climate science activism against fossil fuels declared in 2007 that temperatures lower than 15C in Thailand was a thing of the past because of global warming caused by our use of fossil fuels (Rise in average temperatures seen, Bangkok Post, November 3, 2007). The very next year cruel nature gave these scientists temperatures well below the 15C mark. More info: [LINK]
    There is an optimum level of fear at which climate research funding is maximized. The idea that global warming is past the “tipping point” or a point of no return is well beyond that optimum. No research funding for mitigation of global warming will be forthcoming if mitigation is not possible. Yet it is used when traditional fearmongering fails to get the desired attention and then quickly recanted to seek funds for climate action. More info: [LINK]
    Climate scientists say that the Arctic is on its way to becoming ice free in summer and that therefore the polar bear should be declared an endangered species under the Endangered Species Act and we must act quickly and decisively to cut emissions and turn the climate temperature knob down to where the Polar Bear can survive. More info: [LINK]
    Tens of thousands of climate scientists flew in from around the world to gather in Bali in 2007 and Poznan in 2008 and they are going to do it again in Copenhagen in 2009, and yet, these thousands of brilliant minds have yet to come up with practical plan of action for mankind to mitigate climate change that is allegedly being caused by human. The elusive nature of this agreement likely derives from a mis-specified and flawed problem statement for mankind neither causes climate change nor has any leverage over nature to mitigate climate change. More info: [LINK]
    In May 2008 Cyclone Nargis, with unremarkable maximum wind speeds of 100 mph, struck Myanmar and caused a freak storm surge that went up the Irrawaddy River and killed 140,000 people. Climate science was quick to claim Nargis as an impact climate change and reason to fear fossil fuels. This assessment created widespread panic in the region with Myanmar, Thailand, Bangladesh, and India all forecasting and fearing Nargis-like storm surges. In Thailand, the meteorology department had Samut Prakarn area residents in fear for years with repeated forecasts of destruction by Nargis-like storm surges. They never came and those scary forecasts have stopped coming. More info: [LINK]
    Our use of fossil fuels is devastating the Arctic where the volume of sea ice “fell to its lowest recorded level to date” this year and that reduced ice coverage is causing a non-linear acceleration in the loss of polar ice because there is less ice to reflect sunlight. More info: [LINK]
    The Bangkok Post declares that the IPCC is the world’s most respected scientific agency and pushes for the success of the Poznan climate talks. More info: [LINK]
    More than 10,000 delegates are attending a meeting in Poland of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) from December 1 to the 12th. There has been a flurry of scary press releases saying that human activity is causing the earth to become warmer and that global warming will soon be out of control and that there will be devastating consequences to our use of fossil fuels, all of them based on hypothetical statements that state that if event X occurs then a devastation Y is likely to follow. More info: [LINK]
    Mt. Erebus along with most of the mountains in Antarctica are volcanic mountains and it is now known with certainty that volcanic activity under the ice there is causing great amounts of ice to melt and to cause glaciers to flow faster. The attempt by climate scientists to represent these events as climate change phenomena is inconsistent with this reality. More info: [LINK]
  127. 2008: THE ARCTIC WILL BE ICE FREE IN SUMMER IN 2008, 2013, 2030, OR 2100
    The unusually low summer sea ice extent in the Arctic in 2007
    The IPCC has taken note and has revised its projection of an ice free Arctic first from 2008 to 2013 and then again from 2013 to 2030. The way things are going it may be revised again to the year 2100. More info: [LINK]
    Climate scientists looking through satellite pictures found a crack in the Petermann glacier in Greenland and concluded that it could speed up sea level rise because huge chunks of ice the size of Manhattan were hemorrhaging off. Yet, scientists who has been travelling to Greenland for years to study glaciers say that the crack in the glacier is normal and not different from other cracks seen in the 1990s. More info: [LINK]
    Promoting the carbon footprint as the overarching environmental issue does more harm than good because it trivializes more important pollution issues and also because some measures taken to reduce the carbon footprint create more environmental problems than they solve. For example, the use of fertilizer to grow renewable energy crops causes an extreme form of water pollution by nitrogen compounds called eutrophication. Environmentalism has gone awry. It’s broke and it need to be fixed: More info: [LINK]
    Temperature data taken very diligently at Mohonk, NY since 1896 show a temperature increase of 16 Centigrade degrees over 112 years, equivalent to 0.14285 Centigrade degrees per year However, an examination of the Mohonk station shows a warming trend of 0.0133C/year, not 0.1428C/year. Over the same period, on average, the temperature at Rochester, NY increased 0.0056 degrees/year, at Albany, NY it decreased 0.00167 degrees/year, and at Maryland, NY it decreased 0.0074 degrees/year. Clearly it is not possible to use data from a single weather station to draw conclusions about temperature trends even in just the state of New York, much less the entire world. More info: [LINK]
    There has been much speculation in the Thai media recently as to the surge effects on the low-lying coastal mudflats of Samut Prakarn should a storm like Cyclone Nargis form in the Gulf of Thailand due to climate change and rising seas caused by fossil fuel emissions. More info: [LINK]
    The IPCC claimed that it had the scientific evidence to prove that our use of fossil fuels caused Hurricane Katrina to forecast with a great certainty that there was more to come in the 2006 hurricane season but the 2006 hurricane season turned out to be milder than normal. The IPCC blamed the dissipation of El Nino for the mild hurricane season in 2006 and issued a new warning that 2007 will be the hottest year on record and will bring a killer hurricane season worse than 2005 but the 2007 forecast also failed. The IPCC’s dream hurricane season has finally arrived in 2008 unannounced and unexpected with strong hurricanes Gustav and Hanna expected to be followed by Ike and a dozen others before the season is through. More info: [LINK]
    When there was a greater focus on Antarctica climate scientists said that global warming was melting the West Antarctic Ice Shelf; but the melting was found to be localized and with an active volcano underneath the melting and the attention of “melt forecast” climate science shifted to Arctic sea ice after the an extensive summer melt was observed in September 2007. More info: [LINK]
    Climate scientists say that fossil fueled global warming causes extreme weather and then waits for weather events such as Cyclone Nargis that can be called extreme, claims that it was caused by global warming, and the forecasts more of the same in that area. In the very sad case of Thailand, the deadly storm surge of Cyclone Nargis was forecast to become normal for this region and a specific forecast was made that a cyclone would form in the Gulf of Thailand and that it would cause a storm surge that would devastate the province of Samut Prakarn. No such cyclone occurred but the economic and emotional distress caused by these forecasts were probably equally damaging. More info: [LINK]
    Climate science predicted that in 2008 man-made climate change would cause the hot season in Thailand to arrive earlier than usual and to be so much hotter that parts of the country would experience heavy rains and floods while other parts will be hit by a severe drought (A hot summer expected to arrive early this year, Bangkok Post, February 3, 2008). None of this occurred. Tt was a normal year weather-wise. More info: [LINK]
    The book “The Great Warming” by Brian Fagan says that the climate is not at the mercy of man but that man is at the mercy of the climate. It is natural for climate to change. All we can hope to do is to adapt to the changes when they occur. More info: [LINK]
    Environmental extremism is not benign but rather poses a serious risk to us all that in the long run is more dangerous than terrorism. Malaria, dengue, and other mosquito borne diseases, that had been all but eradicated by DDT, have been able to make a come-back because of a ban on DDT in the hysterical aftermath of the book “Silent Spring”. The lifting of the ban by the WHO in 2006 is a tacit admission that the worldwide ban on DDT was a mistake that had cost humanity millions of lives. More info: [LINK]
    The city of Bangkok is sinking due to subsidence. This is a real problem and its real causes must be addressed for a solution. It is cruel opportunism for climate scientists to use this tragedy to sell their man-made global warming agenda. More info: [LINK]
    Climate scientists say that man-made global warming has caused a rise in the sea level and an increase in the frequency and intensity of natural disasters in Asia. They cite the recent cyclone in Burma, a typhoon in the Philippines, and the earthquake in China. It is implied that these events could hav e been avoided or moderated had we not used fossil fuels. More info: [LINK]
    Climate activists at the G* meeting wanted the G8 to make a “commitment” to a specified greenhouse gas reduction by 2020. They were denied. Then they asked the G8 to “seriously consider” a reduction by 2020. They were denied. So finally they wanted the G8 to issue a statement of a “shared vision” for climate change for 2020. They were denied. Finally, they begged for and received a “shared vision” statement for 2050. More info: [LINK]
    Climate scientists say that man-made global warming has caused a rise in the sea level sufficient to inundate an atoll in Kiribati, a chain of 33 such islands, and created climate refugees. More info: [LINK]
    The survival of the polar bear is threatened because man made global warming is melting ice in the Arctic. It is true that the Arctic sea ice extent was down in negative territory in September 2007. This event emboldened global warming scaremongers to declare it a climate change disaster caused by greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuels and to issue a series of scenarios about environmental holocaust yet to come. More info: [LINK]
    Climate scientists have determined that Adelie penguins in Antarctica are threatened because climate change is melting Antarctic glaciers although it is not clear whether the melting is caused by volcanic activity underneath the ice. More info: [LINK]
    A volcano under the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, that last erupted 2000 years ago, is now active and responsible for melting ice and for retreating glaciers in that part of the continent (The fire below, Bangkok Post, April 28, 2008). Yet, climate scientists claim that these changes are man-made and that they are caused by carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels as predicted by their computer model of the earth’s climate. More info: [LINK]
    Regardless of the fact that none of our extreme weather predictions have come true and that 2007 was not the hottest year on record, and that Antarctica is not melting like we said, please consider for a moment the devastating tragedy that could befall us if the earth did warm by an extreme amount although we can’t support that by the actual but boring data. More info: [LINK]
    Climate scientists say that carbon dioxide from human activity involving the use of fossil fuels is absorbed into the ocean where it forms carbonic acid and causes environmental devastation by killing shellfish and coral. More info: [LINK]
    Global warming scientists used a computer climate model to determine that by the year 2030 yields of critical crops will fall sufficiently in southern Africa and in South Asia to cause famine. The good news is that this catastrophe can be avoided by giving up fossil fuels and using renewable energy. More info: [LINK]
    The population of Adelie Penguins in the northern reaches of the Peninsula has declined in recent decades but this decline has been more than offset by robust growth in other areas of Antarctica and other species of penguins are thriving in the Peninsula. The mix of penguin species in Antarctica has never been stable and has undergone dramatic changes over millennia. More info: [LINK]
    Climate change is causing mass extinctions of species and is expected to devastate the biodiversity of the although in prior epochs of climate change the data in the fossil record show that climate change causes not a net reduction in the number of species but an explosion in the number of species. More info: [LINK]
    The summer melt of the Arctic ice is not unprecedented, extreme weather events have not become more frequent or more severe, and atolls in the South Pacific are not sinking under rising sea levels. The IPCC’s claim that Hurricane Katrina was caused by man-made global warming has been thoroughly discredited and their forecasts for more severe hurricane seasons in 2006 and 2007 have been proven wrong. They are merchants of fear and their method is the dissemination of convenient lies. More info: [LINK]
    Temperature data 1957-2008 show that the whole of Antarctica including Western Antarctica, the Antarctic Peninsula, and Eastern Antarctica, is warming due to CO2 emissions from fossil fuels. More info: [LINK]
    It is reported that “Southeast Asia is facing problems from rising sea levels that bring more frequent flooding in coastal zones and river basins” (Thai firms not ready for climate change, Bangkok Post, January 22, 2009). It is noteworthy that none of these flooding events has been reported in the media. More info: [LINK]
    It is reported that an increase in coastal erosion observed this year in Phuket, Thailand, is due to rising sea levels caused by man-made global warming. Phuket is on the Andaman side of the isthmus of Thailand. Nearby is the Koh-Tapao sea level measuring station monitored by the University of Hawaii sea level database. The time series of these data from 1996 to 2008 do not show any trend. More info: [LINK]
    Man-made global warming is causing Greenland’s glaciers to melt at an alarming rate. By the year 2100 all the ice there will have melted causing a calamitous rise in the sea level that will inundate Bangladesh, the Maldives, Bangkok, New Orleans, and atolls in the Pacific. More info: [LINK]
    In 25 to 50 years global warming will have a measurable impact on ski slopes by melting snow at lower altitudes and forcing skiers to move uphill. Climate scientists appear to be more comfortable with forecasts with a time horizon long enough so that they cannot be proven wrong in their lifetime. More info: [LINK]
    The tuatara reptile is one of a many species identified by climate scientists as being threatened by global warming caused by our use of fossil fuels. It is part of an overall theory that climate change threatens biodiversity because it will reduce the number of species by causing some of them to become extinct. More info: [LINK]
    The carbon trading scheme allows rich countries to buy carbon credits from poor countries in a contract that prevents the poor country from pursuing development projects that would increase CO2 emissions or decrease CO2 removal by photosynthesis. The international carbon trading scheme allows rich countries to trade these contracts among themselves. More info: [LINK]
    The current warming period began about 1800 at the end of the little ice age, long before there was an appreciable increase of CO2. There have been similar and even larger warmings several times in the 10,000 years since the end of the last ice age. These earlier warmings clearly had nothing to do with the combustion of fossil fuels. More Info: [LINK]
    James Lovelock, of Gaia fame who rose to prominence as a guru of environmentalism in the 1960s, says that by the year 2040 carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels will turn Europe into a desert and that by the year 2100 the entire planet will be dead. More info: [LINK]
    Climate scientists say that the melting of Antarctica is more severe than “previously thought” because the melt is not limited to the Antarctic Peninsula but extends to West Antarctica as well. More info: [LINK]
    Australian authorities are urging married people not to divorce because living separate lives would increase their carbon footprint and exacerbate global warming. More info: [LINK]
    Hypothesis must be tested by a different set of data than that used to develop them, for otherwise one falls prey to circular reasoning. The climate model of the IPCC contains this very fundamental scientific flaw because there is only one history. The historical climate data that are used to develop the model and its empirical parameters are the same data that are used to validate the model. More info: [LINK]
    New data show that the West Antarctic ice shelf collapses every 40,000 years or so and that this cyclical process has been regular feature of this ice shelf for millions of years (Antarctica ice collapses were regular, Bangkok Post, March 19, 2009). These melting episodes can raise the sea level by as much as 5 meters but the process takes a thousand years or more. More info: [LINK]
    Bangkok is sinking at about 2 or 3 cm per year and this phenomenon is blamed for the increasing severity of floods that occur when a rain swollen Chao Phraya River coincides with unusually high tides. These flooding incidents cannot be related to global warming or sea level rise. More info: [LINK]
    A new biofuels plant in Singapore is to make bio-diesel from palm oil and sell the product to Europeans at around $900 per ton at a time when real diesel is available at $600 per ton. The reason for targeting the European market is that there is a greater likelihood of finding a high degree of gullible environmentalism that might motivate consumers there to pay more for diesel if they get can a warm and fuzzy feeling of having done something good for the environment. The reality of course is dramatically different here in Asia where the rapid growth in palm oil plantations has been called an environmental disaster. More info: [LINK]
    Non-Annex developing countries like Thailand have no emission reduction obligation under the Kyoto Protocol and UNFCC Convention but ever since ceding that rational advantage to the poor countries, they have been working overtime to find a way around it using acronyms for each scheme as a way of making it seem important. The 2009 version of this effort is the “low carbon growth model” (LCGM). The bottom line is that developing countries must reduce emissions to save the earth from climate change catastrophe. More info: [LINK]
    Climate scientists say that the Wilkins Ice Shelf collapse is caused by warming of the Antarctic Peninsula due to man-made “global climate change”. More info: [LINK]
    Between 2005 and 2007 the UN repeatedly declares that we have passed the tipping point and that it is “already too late to late. The planet is doomed. But in 2009, Ban Ki Moon contradicts his staff and describes the effect of carbon dioxide emissions on climate as “our foot is stuck on the accelerator and we are heading towards an abyss”. That we are not at the abyss yet and there is till time to act. More info: [LINK]
    Southeast Australia is a semi-arid drought prone area with a history of severe droughts during which its primary river system can go bone dry. The current drought there is part of this weather pattern. More info: [LINK]
    Our use of fossil fuels has, through global warming, caused a prolonged drought and severe aridity in northern China and the appropriate response for us is to take climate action and cut emissions. More info: [LINK]
    After sustained criticism from skeptics, climate scientists have revised their forecast for the rise in sea levels by the year 2100 from 5 meters to 38 cm. In releasing the rather innocuous new figure the scientists had to try extra hard to maintain the fear level saying that the lower figure does not mean we are safe and that things could turn out to be much worse. More info: [LINK]
    Rapid advance of a glacier in Argentina that was supposed to retreat is explained by climate scientists as an anomaly. “We are not sure why this happens. But not all glaciers respond equally to climate change” In other words, they don’t take data to test the hypothesis because their hypothesis is correct by definition. They take data to test the data. If the data support their theory the data are deemed to be good. Otherwise the data are deemed spurious and additional theories are needed to explain how these observations could occur in the age of global warming. In this kind of science, the man-made global warming hypothesis cannot be proven wrong by the data. More info: [LINK]
    Climate scientists say that the excessive emphasis on the impact of global warming on poor countries was a mistake and that they need to find new ways to bring the horror of global warming home to the citizens of the rich countries in order to ensure the passage of the post Kyoto AGW mitigation measures they will present in Copenhagen. More info: [LINK]
    Climate scientists were sure they could prove that global warming is increasing the frequency and severity of extreme weather but with nothing but Katrina to go on, they have turned to studying crashing hoping to scare us with increasing wave intensity as evidence of extreme weather. More info: [LINK]
    In 2005 the Amazon Basin was suffering from drought conditions and this year it was deluged under a devastating flood. The rapid succession of drought and flood is described by climate science as “climate chaos”. They have determined that it was caused by global warming driven by fossil fuel emissions. More info: [LINK]
    The effort by epidemiologists to pin a malaria outbreak on global warming is quite possibly not unbiased scientific inquiry but rather an effort to fudge the data and the methodology until the findings meet the expectations and the utility of the global warming community and thereby facilitate further funding. More info: [LINK]
    Carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels have caused the following alarming changes to our planet: (1) ice covering the Arctic Ocean shrank in 2007 to its smallest since satellite records began, (2) In Antarctica, a section of the Wilkins Ice Shelf has broken up in recent days, (3) glaciers in the Himalayan mountains are shrinking and threatening to disrupt water supplies to hundreds of millions of people, (4) melting permafrost in Siberia will release large quantities of methane into the atmosphere and hasten global warming, and (5) if all of the land based ice in Antarctica melted it would raise the sea level by 80 meters. More info: [LINK]
    The Asian Development Bank issues a report on “the economics of climate change in Southeast Asia” – patterned after its mother report, “The economics of climate change” by Nicholas Stern and funded by the British. It tries to trick SE Asian non-Annex countries with no UNFCCC climate action obligation to take climate action with the fear of consequences if they don’t. More info: [LINK]
    Although climate science presents climate change as a global issue with global emissions changing global language, the ADB tries to trick SE Asian non-Annex countries into climate action with a report that implies that climate change in SE Asia is responsive to emissions from SE Asia and if no action is taken climate change will lead to decreasing rainfall and millions will suffer from water shortages”; “Rice production will decline threatening food security”; “Forests will turn into scrub land”; “Floods, droughts, cyclones, and other extreme weather events will become common”; “Deaths from cardiovascular and respiratory disease, malaria, and dengue fever will increase”; “Sea levels will rise by 70 cm or more inundating entire islands and low lying areas”; and the biggest lie of all, “All of these dangers may be mitigated by reducing CO2 emissions from fossil fuels”. More info: [LINK]
    Our carbon dioxide emissions are wreaking havoc on the world’s coral reefs according to climate scientists. Sadly, the obsession with carbon dioxide has done more harm to the environment and to coral reefs than good by belittling and hiding real pollution issues. More info: [LINK]
    Climate scientists say that climate action has become urgent because of the possibility of rapid sea level rise. We are urged to reduce “greenhouse gas emissions” from fossil fuels because in prior interglacial periods the sea level had risen by as much as 3 meters in 100 years and so we should expect it do so again in the interglacial period in which we now live. More info: [LINK]
    The oft repeated claim that Bangladesh is being inundated by rising sea levels caused by man-made climate change ignores the relevant data that the total land mass of the country is not decreasing. In fact, the total land mass of Bangladesh is increasing just as it always has by virtue of silt deposition. More info: [LINK]
    Ban Ki Moon says that we are approaching the abyss and if Copenhagen fails we will soon find ourselves at the abyss – and suddenly everything that any UN bureaucrat says about climate change contains the word abyss. A new climate buzzword has thus been invented to hype the Copenhagen climate summit which incidentally failed miserably just as the rest of them have, all funded by taxpayers. More info: [LINK]
    Ban Ki-Moon says that he went to the Arctic Ocean and was horrified to see the remains of a glacier that just a few years ago was a majestic mass of ice and that had just collapsed – not slowly melted – just collapsed. He thereby became convinced that the only resolution for the “climate crisis” is a binding emission reduction agreement at the Copenhagen meeting in December 2009: More info: [LINK]
    Citing the high cost of the EU carbon emission reduction plan ill timed to coincide with a long and painful global recession, Italian premier Silvio Berlusconi announced that Italy will not comply and moreover that he intends to use Italy’s veto power to block the measure. More info: [LINK]
    The second lowest was 2008 and the first lowest was 2007. This is not a trend that shows that things are getting worse. It shows that things are getting better and yet it is being sold and being bought as evidence that things are getting worse due to rising fossil fuel emissions. More info: [LINK]
    In 2005 two glaciers in Greenland were found to be moving faster than they were in 2001. Scientists concluded from these data that the difference observed was a a long term trend of glacial melt in Greenland and that carbon dioxide was the cause of this trend. The assumed trend was then extrapolated forward and we were told that carbon dioxide would cause the land based ice mass of Greenland to be discharged to the sea and raise the sea level by six meters. They said that the only way out of the devastation was to drastically reduce carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels. However, in 2009, just before a meeting in Copenhagen where these deep cuts in emissions were to be negotiated, it was found that the glaciers had returned to their normal rate of discharge. More info: [LINK]
    The Institute for Public Policy Research in the UK proposes to fight climate change by rationing energy. The program would include gasoline, natural gas, heating oil, electricity, diesel, and even airline tickets and holidays. Each person or household will be issued ration cards for a prescribed amount of energy each month and when the that amount has been consumed, excess consumption will be possible only by purchasing carbon credits. More info: [LINK]
    It is claimed that carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels are causing Himalayan glaciers to melt and thereby to threaten devastation but the available data do not support this conclusion. More info: [LINK]
    The old Club of Rome argument that “we can’t all live like white people because that would overwhelm the planet” is now made with climate change as the rationale. More info: [LINK]
    The CDM (clean development mechanism) and the carbon offset scheme offers the rich industrialized West to fight climate change simply by buying carbon offsets from poor countries, in effect, paying poor to stay poor so that the rich can stay rich by buying the right to their continued use of fossil fuels. More info: [LINK]
    Global warming caused by our use of fossil fuels is driving polar bears to extinction and threatening the livelihood of the people of Nunavut. More info: [LINK]
    Climate scientists say that sea level rise due to man-made global warming is causing Shanghai to be inundated with sea water. The truth is that the inundation problem in Shanghai was first noted and measured by geologists back in 1921 when atmospheric carbon dioxide was below 300 ppm. The problem is attributed to subsidence caused by the removal of ground water and the weight of the buildings in the downtown area of the city. The subsidence continues to this day and it is estimated that Shanghai is sinking at an annual rate of about one cm per year. More info: [LINK]
    Bangladeshis displaced by Cyclone Sidr in 2007 are “climate refugees” because they have been rendered homeless by a climate change event that was caused by carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels and it suggests that cyclones like Sidr will continue to ravage this poverty stricken nation unless we forge a plan in Copenhagen and do away with fossil fuels. More info: [LINK]
    An alarm is raised that the extreme summer melt of Arctic sea ice in 2007 was caused by humans using fossil fuels and it portends that in 20 years human caused global warming will leave the Arctic Ocean ice-free in the summer raising sea levels and harming wildlife. More info: [LINK]
    Our use of fossil fuels causes global warming. Global warming causes sea level rise. Sea level rise causes South Pacific atolls to become inundated. The inundation of these islands creates climate refugees. More info: [LINK]
    A positive feedback loop from hell that could cause explosive climate change is described in terms of volcanic activity and climate change with each pushing the other forward. More info: [LINK]
    Some glaciers on north and northeast Greenland terminate in fiords with long glacier tongues that extend into the sea. It is found that the warming of the oceans caused by our use of fossil fuels is melting these icy tongues and raising the specter of devastation by sea level rise. More info: [LINK]
    Climate scientists continue to extrapolate the extreme summer melt of Arctic sea ice in 2007 to claim that the summer melt of 2007 was a climate change event and that it implies that the Arctic will be ice free in the summer from 2012 onwards. This is a devastating effect on the planet and our use of fossil fuels is to blame. More info: [LINK]
    This old Gore hypothesis is endorsed by climate science but it turns out, the loss of ice interpreted here was due to aridity and not warming; the process is sublimation not melting; and it started at least as early as 1912 when atmospheric CO2 was below 300 ppm. Furthermore, the ice appears to have stabilized and the various projections of its demise by 2016, 2020, or 2030 have all been withdrawn. More info: [LINK]
    Typhoon Ketsana devastated the Philippines in 2009 and it was a high profile news item so naturally it was adopted by the United Nations climate meeting in Bangkok to sell their war against fossil fuels. More info: [LINK]
    Carbon dioxide emissions causing encroachment by sea water in the Bangkok Groundwater Area, that includes Samut Prakan, say climate scientists although it is known to be a well known effect of land subsidence caused by ground water extraction that is unrelated to carbon dioxide emissions, global warming, or climate change. More info: [LINK]
    Himalayan ice is rapidly vanishing because of human caused global warming and will be gone by 2035. The great rivers of Asia that are originate there will shrivel and die and cease to provide water to a quarter of humanity. More info: [LINK]
    There are too many people in poor countries. They can’t all live like white people because that would overload the planet with too much carbon dioxide. So please keep the status quo and we will take care of you with billions of Euros of aid should global warming’s devastation strike. More info: [LINK]
    Summer melt of Arctic ice was the third most extensive on record in 2009, second 2008, and the most extensive in 2007. These data show that warming due to our carbon dioxide emissions are causing summer Arctic ice to gradually diminish until it will be gone altogether. More info: [LINK]
    It would be a sad chapter in human history if we commit economic suicide Jim Jones style in the vain and Quixotic belief that we are in control of the planet’s climate. The human race with all its knowledge and technology, is insignificant on a planetary scale. On what basis do we expect to be able to stabilize nature? We appear to be in the grip of some kind of mass insanity. More info: [LINK]
    In 2007, 2008, and 2009 climate science issued the dire warning that global warming caused by our fossil fuel emissions is weakening and destabilizing the annual South Asian monsoon weather pattern. Monsoons in South Asia will be weakened and delayed. The results will be devastating and will include drought, crop failure, and widespread hunger. These dire forecasts were finally withdrawn in 2010 when they were proven false. [LINK]
    In the unusually cold winter of the year 2009, climate science declared it as an anomaly and a case of natural variability but the unusually warm winter of 2000 was not interpreted as natural variability nor as an anomaly but as absolute proof of the theory of global warming by way of fossil fuel emissions: More info: [LINK]
    The article pretends to describe wheat production in all of China but cites only the failure of a new venture to grow wheat in semi-desert Gansu Province with where one finds large desert areas and where the only economic activity had been mining and attributes that failure to climate change. It is true that the experimental wheat farms had rough years in the beginning but by 2017 the experiment had borne fruit with about 3000 hectares under cultivation. Wheat production is booming in the main wheat producing provinces of Heilongjiang, Henan, and Hebei. The implication of the article that wheat production in China has been adversely affected by fossil fueled global warming is inconsistent with the data. More info: [LINK]
    The Copenhagen climate summit was advertised by the UN and by climate scientists as a “do or die” watershed event for climate action to save the planet. Its spectacular failure and the continued existence of the planet threw the movement into a chaotic war between rich and poor with the poor developing countries accusing the rich industrialized countries of having been the perpetrators of climate change and demanding compensation. More info: [LINK]
    In 2005 climate science had latched on to Hurricane Katrina as the harbinger of killer hurricane super storms created by fossil fueled global warming but after no further cyclone activity in the North Atlantic Basin in the next three years, they were rewarded with Cyclone Nargis in the Indian Basin. Though not unusually strong, Nargis did create a freak storm surge in rising tides that swept up the Irrawaddy River in Burma and claimed a horrific death toll. Nargis thus became the biggest news story in Asia. Climate scientists quickly changed their focus from the North Atlantic Basin to the Indian Basin and claimed Cyclone Nargis as a creation of climate change caused by fossil fuel emissions and as the harbinger of “destruction on a global scale” by human caused global warming. More info: [LINK]
    Bangladesh is a low lying delta where the Ganges, the Brahmaputra, and other Indian rivers drain. Over the last few decades an explosive growth of shrimp farming along the coast and construction of irrigation dams upstream in India has caused coastal salinity to move further upstream causing considerable harm to agriculture. This tragedy is now claimed by climate science as an impact of fossil fueled global warming by way of rising seas. Yet, if rising seas were the cause of the salinity problem, the land area of Bangladesh would be shrinking – but it is growing. More info: [LINK]
    Global warming theory is strictly in global terms and yet it is often interpreted in regional terms as in the case where climate science has found that typhoons in Vietnam are caused by SE Asian emissions. More info: [LINK]
  213. 2009: THE MEKONG IS TOAST
    The Mekong River is drying up because there is not enough snow in the Himalayas. This tragic situation was created with fossil fuel emissions that cause global warming and climate change. It can be solved by cutting fossil fuel emissions and restoring the Himalayas to their former pristine and unchanging condition. [LINK]
    Climate science has determined that IF climate change causes sufficiently extreme weather and IF they devastate agriculture in China, THEN the impact on the economic and social development of China would be incalculable”. The fear of global warming is now being delivered as pure hypothetical statements using the words “if” and “could”. More info: [LINK]
    Human caused global warming is causing havoc in Antarctica with potentially incalculable results. Over one hundred icebergs broke off and a huge flotilla of them are floating up to New Zealand. More info: [LINK]
    Our carbon dioxide emissions are causing the East Antarctic ice shelf to lose 57 billion tonnes of ice per year and that if CO2 emissions are not reduced this process could raise sea levels by 5 meters. More info: [LINK]
    The recent rapid growth in palm oil plantations in SE Asia is not for the cooking oil market but for the renewable biofuels market. This market was created by climate scientists in their urgent call for a rapid increase in biofuels to replace fossil fuels as a way of mitigating global warming and saving the planet. The same climate scientists are now complaining that their medicine is worse than the disease, that their solution to global warming causes global warming, and that their single minded obsession with carbon dioxide compromises real environmental issues. More info: [LINK]
    In 1989 there were 178000 Porcupine caribou in the Yukon and “their number now is estimated to be 100,000” because global warming is killing off the caribou. Global warming causes freezing rain in the calving season and that makes it hard for calving caribou to feed. But if we don’t cherry pick the start of the study period as 1989 and look at all the available data we find that the population rose steadily from 100000 in 1972 to 178000 in 1989 and then decreased steadily down to 120000 in 2005. These data suggest, and caribou biologists agree, that caribou populations go through a 30 to 40-year cycle of growth and decay. This population dynamic cannot be related to global warming or carbon dioxide. More info: [LINK]
    Drought and a drinking water shortage in Guangdong are the result of global warming due to too much carbon dioxide in the air put there by our use of fossil fuels. However, China’s very extensive historical weather record in the Fang Zhi shows that cycles of drought and flood have been characteristic of this region for 2500 years long before atmospheric carbon dioxide rose above 300 ppm. Guangdong’s growing drinking water crisis is due to rapid industrialization and population growth with large numbers of migrant workers flooding into the region. More info: [LINK]
    Fossil fuel emissions cause global warming, global warming in turn causes glaciers in Iceland to melt, and melting glaciers lighten the weight of the ice cap on volcanoes and thereby trigger eruptions (Ice cap thaw may awaken Icelandic volcanoes, April 17, 2010). That it was geothermal activity that caused the melting of the Eyjafjallajoekull glacier is not mentioned. Instead climate science tells us that the we must cut fossil fuel emissions to save Iceland from climate change hell. [LINK] [LINK]
    Bhutan is a tiny country. Its main features are poverty, illiteracy, and poor medical and infrastructure services. Bhutan is carbon negative, not carbon neutral as claimed by climate science. To achieve carbon neutrality, Bhutan must increase fossil fuel consumption many fold. [LINK]
    Climate science has determined that the earth is “overheated, under-resourced, and out of time”. Fortunately, although we are out of time, there is still time to save the planet. We can do that by moving to a Green Economy that would require that we stop using fossil fuels and change to renewable energy. [LINK]
    Climate science says that fossil fueled global warming is causing ice to melt and sea levels to rise and that the destruction that this process can cause is already evident in that the ocean has taken back an island from Bangladesh. (Note: New Moore Island, Talpatti in local lingo, is one of many evanescent islands that come and go on the coast of this delta nation but in the net land is gained not lost). More info here [LINK]
    It appears that climate change will be harder to sell than previously thought. Hurricane Katrina, sinking tropical islands, climate refugees, and melting glaciers in the Himalayas have been oversold and they are no longer effective. The credibility of climate scientists has been eroded by the Climategate email scandal and also by the revelation of data anomalies. More info: [LINK]
    The UNFCCC emission reduction plan is confounded with a complicated classification of nations and their responsibilities and such bureaucratic double-speak as “Common But Differentiated Responsibilities and Respective Capabilities” (CBDRRC); and it is further corrupted by the built-in weakness of the carbon credit plan. These weaknesses have turned the UN emission reduction plan into a giant money game in which rich countries can pay developing countries to not develop and a great enthusiasm among countries classified as “vulnerable” to tout their vulnerability and demand money. More info: [LINK] Also this: [LINK]
    Global warming is melting ice in the Arctic and devastating the ecosystem that nurtures the habitats of the Polar Bear and the Walrus. Urgent climate action is needed to save these great creatures of the North. More info: [LINK]
    Climate scientists say the extreme weather is caused by man-made climate change if they can come up with a rationale to explain that effect. In cases where they can’t come up with a rationale the weather effect is explained as a case where natural variability had temporarily overcome human caused global warming. More info: [LINK]
    Since Callendar 1938 and right up to Hansen 1981 and IPCC 2007 the human-caused global warming argument has been that the use of hydrocarbon fuels by humans since the industrial revolution injects new external carbon into the carbon cycle that is not part of the current account of the carbon cycle and therefore it is a perturbation of nature’s current account of the carbon cycle. This means that all human caused CO2 emissions are not at issue – only those from fossil fuels are the AGW issue because fossil fuels are external to the carbon cycle and their use injects new carbon into the carbon cycle. So for example, human respiration is not human caused CO2 emissions because that CO2 belongs to the current account of the carbon cycle. Somewhere along the way the climate scientists lost track of this aspect of their own theory and have begun to identify even natural non-fossil fuel elements of the current account of the carbon cycle as causes of rising atmospheric carbon dioxide. More info:  [LINK]




















FIGURE 8: TEST OF THE CLARK HYPOTHESIS: Clark, Peter “Sea-level commitment as a gauge for climate policy.” Nature Climate Change 8.8 (2018) [LINK] CUM









  1. Climate science tells us that the fossil fuel emissions of the industrial economy have caused an artificial global warming measured as a rising temperature trend “since pre-industrial times” that is not explained by usual interglacial dynamics. It is further claimed that this artificial warming of the industrial economy is responsible for the observed rise in global mean sea level (GMSL) since pre-industrial times. The importance of the relationship between global warming and sea level rise is that if fossil fuel emissions are not drastically reduced or eliminated, the artificial sea level rise caused by fossil fuel emissions of the industrial economy will have catastrophic consequences particularly in low lying coastal areas such as Florida and Bangladesh as well as in low lying islands and atolls in the Indian and Pacific oceans labeled as “vulnerable” by climate science. The important conclusion to be drawn from these relationships is that reducing fossil fuel emissions will moderate the rate of sea level rise as measured by the GMSL (SLR) and thereby prevent the catastrophic consequences projected for “vulnerable” places like Florida, Bangladesh, and the Maldive and Pacific islands.
  2. It has been proposed that acceleration in SLR provides evidence of the human cause of SLR. Yet, sea level rise and acceleration in sea level rise are seen in prior interglacial events in the pre-industrial era as in the Eemian  [LINK] and the Younger Dryas [LINK]It should be obvious that SLR is constant only if a surface temperature above 0ºC is constant. In a warming period where the temperature is rising, the rate of sea level must also rise. Thus, since rising surface temperature is normal in interglacials, acceleration in SLR without human cause, is also normal in interglacials as evident in prior interglacial events where no human cause by way of fossil fuel emissions could have existed [LINK] [LINK] . Human cause of sea level rise by way of fossil fuel emissions must therefore be established by other means that involves the rate of fossil fuel emissions.
  3. Here we propose that a testable implication of the proposed relationships that imply human cause of sea level rise is that if reducing emissions is expected to slow the rate of SLR, there ought to be a correlation, net of shared trends, between emissions and the rate of SLR at an appropriate time scale at which this causation can occur. This post is an empirical test of this hypothesis with the GMSL reconstruction provided by CSIRO (Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Organization) [LINK] . These data are available as annual means for the sample period 1880 to 2013. The time scale for the causal relationship is not well defined. The emissions to warming time scale is estimated to be a decade by Ricke and Caldeira 2014 but the relationship between warming and ice melt is usually cited as multidecadal. The Nerem (2018) paper that claimed to show human cause in terms of acceleration in sea level rise used a 25-year study period of 1993-2018 and we use that as a reference to conclude that the time scale  for the slow process of converting emissions to sea level rise should be at least 25 years or perhaps longer. of In view of these considerations, five different time scales in the range of 30 years to 50 years are studied for the relationship between emissions and the rate of SLR. They are 30, 35, 40, 45, and 50 years.
  4. A prior study carried out on the same basis by Peter Clark of Oregon State University found a strong correlation between emissions and sea level rise and concluded that emissions cause sea level (by way of warming) and that therefore, reducing emissions should reduce the rate of sea level rise. This study is discussed in a related post [LINK] where it is shown that the correlation between cumulative values used in the Clark study (and depicted graphically in Figure 8 above) is spurious. This is because the time series of cumulative values of another time series contains neither time scale nor degrees of freedom. This study extends the Clark study by inserting finite time scales so that the correlation can be tested for statistical significance.
  5. The GMSL and emissions data used in the study are depicted graphically in Figure 1 above. The rate of SLR is computed as the linear regression coefficient of GMSL against time in years over time spans corresponding with the five time scales used, viz: 30, 35, 40, 45, and 50 years. These SLR rates are then compared with the total fossil fuel emissions in gigatons of carbon equivalent (GTC) in the duration of the time scale. We then study the correlation between emissions and the rate of SLR at each of the five time scales.
  6. The correlation between the rate of SLR and the rate of emissions at time scales of 30, 35, 40, 45, and 50 years are depicted graphically in Figure 2, Figure 3, Figure 4, Figure 5, and Figure 6 respectively. The left panel of these figures show the correlation in the source data that includes the contribution of shared long term trends to correlation. The right panel shows the correlation between the detrended series in which the contribution of shared long term trends is removed and only the responsiveness at the time scale of interest remains. The necessity of this procedure is explained in a related post [LINK] . What we see in these charts is that though significant correlations are seen in the source data no correlation is apparent in the detrended data.
  7. The observed correlations are tabulated in Figure 7 and the source data and detrended correlations are compared in a chart below the tabulation. These results show that the observed correlation in the source data derive from shared upward trends of the two time series. The zero to negative correlations in the detrended series imply that there is no evidence that the rate of sea level rise is responsive to the rate of fossil fuel emissions. This result is inconsistent with the proposition that climate action in the form of reducing fossil fuel emissions will moderate the rate of sea level rise.
  8. CONCLUSION: Detrended correlation analysis of the relationship between the rate of fossil fuel emissions and the rate of sea level rise observed in the global mean sea level reconstruction 1880-2013 provided by the CSIRO does not show the responsiveness of the rate of SLR to the rate of emissions needed to support the climate action proposition that reductions in fossil fuel emissions will moderate the rate of sea level rise. 
  9. The proposition by climate science that sea level rise can be attenuated with the prescribed climate action of reducing fossil fuel emissions  (Figure 9), is not supported by the data. 








How many roads must a man walk down

Before he can see the climate change

How many seas must a white dove sail

Before the sea levels rise

Yes, and how many times must the airliners fly

Before they’re forever banned

The climate, my friend, is changing with the wind

The climate is changing with the wind

Yes, and how many years can deniers exist

Before they come back to sanity

Yes, and how many years must the science exist

Before they let consensus be

Yes, and how many times can a man turn his head

And pretend that he just doesn’t see

The climate, my friend, is changing with the wind

The climate is changing with the wind



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A month by month trend analysis of more than 100 years of daily maximum (TMAX) and daily minimum (TMIN) temperatures from three weather stations in Australia is presented. The results show warming trends in TMIN for all twelve calendar months at all three stations with observed warming rates ranging from 0.4 to 2.3 degrees Celsius per century. The TMAX data show a combination of warming trends, cooling trends, and no trends with significant differences among stations and among the calendar months so that no coherent conclusion can be drawn with respect to the long term trend in TMAX. Temperature trends in a moving 30-year window indicate that long term linear OLS trends in temperature are the residual product of violent multi-decadal cycles of warming and cooling at rates that are an order of magnitude greater. Detrended correlation analysis failed to establish a relationship between emissions and warming. The strong evidence of warming found in the TMIN data is confounded by its absence in TMAX as no theoretical basis exists for fossil fuel emissions to cause warming in TMIN and not in TMAX.




  1. ACRONYMS: C=degrees Celsius, OLS=ordinary least squares, WMO=World Meteorological Organization, AGW=anthropogenic global warming, TMIN=nighttime daily minimum temperature, TMAX=daytime daily maximum temperature, STDEV=standard deviation,
  2. SUMMARY: Over a hundred years of daily minimum (TMIN) and daily maximum (TMAX) temperature measurements at three weather stations in Australia (90015, 26026, & 30045) taken by the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) are studied separately on a month by month basis for long term trends. The procedure is designed to maintain data integrity in terms of the diurnal and seasonal cycles that involve temperature changes orders of magnitude greater than long term trends. The results for TMAX are inconclusive with one station showing cooling and the other two showing mixed results with warming trends for some months and no evidence of trends for other months. We conclude that the TMAX data do not provide convincing evidence of long term warming trends. Dramatically different results are found for TMIN. All three stations show strong and statistically significant warming trends in TMIN. However, detrended correlation analysis could not relate these warming trends to fossil fuel emissionsThese results are anomalous. No theoretical framework exists for anthropogenic global warming acting through the greenhouse effect of atmospheric CO2 by way of fossil fuel emissions to cause warming in nighttime temperatures without affecting the maximum daytime temperature. It is proposed that anomalies of this kind may be used in conjunction with other factors in the evaluation of the integrity of the instrumental record of surface temperature.
  4. Most of the variance in temperature is contained in the diurnal cycle, the seasonal cycle, in multi-decadal trend cycles within the full span of the data, and in random variability. A very small portion, usually in the order of 5% or less, can be attributed to long term trends (Munshi J. , 2015). For example, in Cape Otway, Australia, located at latitude of -38.86, the diurnal range is ≈7C on average and the range in the seasonal cycle is ≈8C on average. Also trends in a 30-year moving window show multi-decadal trends in the range of -8C to +8C per century. By comparison, the conventional aggregated long term OLS analysis of daily minimum temperatures shows full span linear OLS warming rates 1865-2016 of less than≈1C per century, a rather insignificant number in comparison. For instance, the annual seasonal cycle of ≈8C is equivalent to more than 800 years of long term OLS trend in the full span of the data. Yet, Information about diurnal and seasonal cycles is lost when the data are aggregated prior to trend analysis. To maintain data integrity we propose a procedure in which trend analysis is carried out separately for extreme daytime and nighttime temperatures (daily maximum and daily minimum) and for each calendar month as a way of preserving the integrity of variable diurnal and seasonal cycles throughout the sample period. The procedure yields 24 different trend values. These trends are then understood and interpreted in their context and combined as necessary and as appropriate to answer specific research questions.
  5. A linear OLS trend line across the full span of the time series yields an estimate of the overall trend across the entire sample period but assumes linearity. Long term non-linearity in the data can be detected by drawing a quadratic or cubic curve across the full span and comparing R-squared values. Non-linearity is inferred if the value of R-squared for the non-linear OLS curve is much higher than that of the linear OLS line. Conversely, the linearity assumption is supported if the difference is not significant or a higher value of R-squared is seen in the linear OLS line. Greater insight into the nonlinear trend cycles within the full span of the data is achieved by constructing what may be termed a “trend profile”. It is designed to discover multi-decadal trend cycles that are known to occur in long temperature series (Parker, 2007). A generational (30-year) moving window is used for this purpose. The significance of the 30-year time span derives from the WMO position that climate is 30 years of weather. It moves through the data series one year at a time computing generational trends. A plot of generational trends against time reveals the multi-decadal cycles if they exist in the data. Greater information about non-linearity in the data is gained.
  6. An important consideration in the study of temperature trends in the context of AGW is whether these trends may be related to the rate of fossil fuel emissions. Empirical evidence in support of the AGW hypothesis that fossil fuel emissions cause a measurable warming trend in surface temperature has been presented as a correlation between cumulative emissions and cumulative warming in various global and regional homogenized temperature series as well as in station data (Allen, 2009) (IPCC, 2000) (Matthews, 2009) (Gillett, 2013) (Zickfeld, 2009) (Solomon, 2009) (Davis, 2010) (Meinshausen, 2009) (Karoly, 2006) (IPCC, 2007). However, it is shown in a related post that correlations between cumulative emissions and cumulative warming are spurious because a time series of cumulative values of observations in another time series contains neither time scale nor degrees of freedom [LINK] . This finding implies that only correlations at finite time scales between emissions and warming can serve as empirical evidence for AGW. Katherine Ricke and Ken Caldeira had proposed that the optimal time scale is a decade based on the response characteristics of warming to emissions in the CMIP5 climate model (Ricke, 2014). However, it was not possible to replicate this result outside of climate models and it appears that longer time scales yield better correlations. For example, correlations at a generational time scale (30 years) are higher than those at a decadal time scale. As well, a generation (30 years) time scale is recognized by the WMO as the appropriate time scale in the study of climate (WMO, 2016) (Ackerman, 2006). The generational time scale within a moving 30-year span is therefore used in this work. (A comparison of time scales is presented in a related post on this site [LINK] .
  7. Daily maximum (TMAX) and daily minimum (TMIN) temperatures are provided by the Government of Australia Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) for a large number of weather stations located throughout Australia (BOM, 2017). Five of these weather stations are listed below. They were selected for the study based on data availability of data for more than a century. Large gaps of a decade or more without data were found in the Boulia Airport and Hobart datasets and these stations were removed from the study. In the remaining three stations, all data from incomplete calendar years at the beginning and end of the time series were removed. The remaining sample period for full calendar years are 1865-2016 for Station-90015, 1885-2016 for Station-26026, and 1893-2016 for Station-30045. For each station the daily maximum temperature and daily minimum temperature are reported for each day of the year. Data are missing for 3% to 5% of the days. Missing data were replaced with the most recent data available – typically separated by one to four days. The error introduced by this procedure is assumed to be negligible. Measuring station details are shown in the table below for the five stations considered in the study. Three of these stations contained a sufficient span of data with low missing data counts and the data from these stations were selected for study. The three selected stations are: 90015-Cape-Otway, 26026-Robe, and 30045-Richmond. TMIN and TMAX and the twelve calendar months are studied separately as different phenomena of nature and not combined. This procedure requires twenty four separate sets of trend analysis for each weather station. The procedure maintains the integrity of both the diurnal cycle and the seasonal cycle. STATIONS






Over a hundred years of daily minimum (TMIN) and daily maximum (TMAX) temperature measurements at three weather stations in Australia (90015, 26026, & 30045) taken by the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) are studied separately on a month by month basis for long term trends. The procedure is designed to maintain data integrity in terms of the diurnal and seasonal cycles that involve temperature changes orders of magnitude greater than long term trends. The results for TMAX are inconclusive with one station showing cooling and the other two showing mixed results with warming trends for some months and no evidence of trends for other months. We conclude that the TMAX data do not provide convincing evidence of long term warming trends. Dramatically different results are found for TMIN. All three stations show strong and statistically significant warming trends in TMIN. However, detrended correlation analysis could not relate these warming trends to fossil fuel emissions. These results are anomalous. No theoretical framework exists for anthropogenic global warming acting through the greenhouse effect of atmospheric CO2 by way of fossil fuel emissions to cause warming in nighttime temperatures without affecting the maximum daytime temperature. It is proposed that anomalies of this kind may be used in conjunction with other factors in the evaluation of the integrity of the instrumental record of surface temperature.






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