Thongchai Thailand

Empirical Test of Ozone Depletion

Posted on: August 7, 2018









  1. The Trend Profile of Mean Global Total Column Ozone 1964-2009: Ground station measurements of total column ozone worldwide in the study period 1964-2009 are aggregated into zonal averages. Latitudinally weighted mean global ozone is estimated from these data on an annual time scale. Trend profile analysis of the mean global ozone time series shows a depletion rate of 0.31 DU per year on average across the entire sample period. The depletion rate is equivalent to a 0.1% per year. At this rate it would take 100 years of sustained losses to reach the feared forecast of 10% depletion that caused the cancellation of the SST program (History). The observed ozone depletion rate is not sustained and not of a magnitude that has an implication with respect to the ability of the ozone layer to protect life on the surface of the earth from the harmful effects of UV radiation. The results are consistent with prior results for both ground station and satellite data. The findings are inconsistent with the Montreal Protocol and the Rowland-Molina theory of ozone depletion on which it is based.  FULL TEXT  ACADEMIA.EDU  SSRN.COM
  2. Mean Global Total Ozone from Ground Station Data: 1987-2015: Latitudinally weighted monthly mean global ozone is estimated using total ozone data from sixteen ground stations at latitudes from 89 S to 71 N and longitudes 170 E to 170 W. Data from all sixteen stations are available without gaps for a 29-year sample period from January 1987 to December 2015. The monthly mean global ozone series does not show a sustained decline that can be interpreted in terms of the Rowland-Molina-UNEP theory of ozone destruction by man-made halogenated hydrocarbons. The findings validate the results of a prior work which used satellite data for trends in mean global total ozone over much shorter sample periods.  FULL TEXT  ACADEMIA.EDU  SSRN.COM
  3. Latitudinally Weighted Mean Global Ozone 1979-2015: Mean global total ozone is estimated as the latitudinally weighted average of total ozone measured by the TOMS and OMI satellite mounted ozone measurement devices for the periods 1979-1992 and 2005-2015 respectively. The TOMS dataset shows an OLS depletion rate of 0.65 DU per year on average in mean monthly ozone from January 1979 to December 1992. The depletion rate is equivalent to a 0.2% per year. At this rate it would take 50 years of sustained losses to reach the much feared forecast of 10% depletion that caused the cancellation of the SST program (History). The OMI dataset shows an OLS accretion rate of 0.5 DU per year on average in mean monthly ozone from January 2005 to December 2015. The conflicting and inconsequential OLS trends may be explained in terms of the random variability of nature and violations of OLS assumptions that can create the so called Hurst phenomenon. These findings are inconsistent with the Rowland-Molina theory of ozone destruction by anthropogenic chemical agents because the theory implies continued and dangerous depletion of total ozone on a global scale until the year 2040.  FULL TEXT  ACADEMIA.EDU  SSRN.COM
  4. An Empirical Test of the Chemical Theory of Ozone Depletion: The overall structure of changes in total column ozone levels over a 50-year sample period from 1966 to 2015 and across a range of latitudes from -90° to 71° shows that the data from Antarctica prior to 1995 represent a peculiar outlier condition specific to that time and place and not an enduring global pattern. The finding is inconsistent with the Rowland-Molina theory of chemical ozone depletion.  FULL TEST  ACADEMIA.EDU  SSRN.COM
  5. Trends in Atmospheric Ozone 1957-2015: A general linear model with dummy coded time intervals is proposed for the detection of short term seasonal variations and deseasonalized long term trends in atmospheric total column ozone from 1957 to 2015. Data from ground stations located in the northern mid-latitudes, the tropics, and Antarctica show seasonal cycles and long term declining trends in total ozone that differ according to latitude. The long term decline is weakest in the tropics and strongest in Antarctica implying that latitudinal weighting is required to understand global trends.  FULL TEXT  ACADEMIA.EDU   SSRN.COM.
  6. THE HOLES IN THE OZONE SCARE: The Holes in the Ozone Scare reveals in well-documented, stark detail how science is being misused to achieve political ends. Everyone interested in the so-called global environmental issues should read this powerful book, and then consider whether press releases and computer simulations that are unaccompanied by solid scientific evidence should drive our nation’s science policy. BOOK REVIEWAMAZON LINK
  7. The United Nations: An Unconstrained Bureaucracy: The United Nations is financed mostly by taxpayers from a few donor countries but the large and growing bureaucracy is too far removed from those taxpayers to be directly accountable to them. It is run by unelected, unaccountable, undisciplined, and incompetent bureaucrats. The organization’s size, budget, and scope are unconstrained. The budget funding process provides perverse incentives for these bureaucrats to increase the size and scope of their organization simply by creating multitudes of agencies and programs, and by inventing problems and environmental crises set on a global scale. FULL TEXT: ACADEMIA.EDU  SSRN.COM








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