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NASA: Evidence of Human Caused Climate Change #4

Posted on: July 27, 2018

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LINKS TO ALL FOUR SECTIONS OF THIS REVIEW 

NASA EVIDENCE FOR HUMAN CAUSED CLIMATE CHANGE #1:

NASA EVIDENCE FOR HUMAN CAUSED CLIMATE CHANGE #2:

NASA EVIDENCE FOR HUMAN CAUSED CLIMATE CHANGE #3:

NASA EVIDENCE FOR HUMAN CAUSED CLIMATE CHANGE #4:

Source Document: Global Climate Change  

EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS: The number of record high temperature events in the United States has been increasing, while the number of record low temperature events has been decreasing, since 1950. The U.S. has also witnessed increasing numbers of intense rainfall events. OCEAN ACIDIFICATION: Since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution, the acidity of surface ocean waters has increased by about 30 percent
Since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution, the acidity of surface ocean waters has increased by about 30 percent.11,12 This increase is the result of humans emitting more carbon dioxide into the atmosphere and hence more being absorbed into the oceans. The amount of carbon dioxide absorbed by the upper layer of the oceans is increasing by about 2 billion tons per year. SCIENTIFIC CONSENSUS: Ninety-seven percent of climate scientists agree that climate-warming trends over the past century are very likely due to human activities, and most of the leading scientific organizations worldwide have issued public statements endorsing this position. SCARY TRENDS AND EVENTS: The oceans are warming, ice sheets are shrinking, glaciers retreating, snow cover decreasing, the sea level is rising, Arctic sea ice is declining, and extreme weather is happening.

RESPONSE

  1. EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS: The “Event Attribution Science” methodology is derived from the Probabilistic Event Attribution or PEA that was formalized as the Warsaw International Mechanism for Loss and Damage Associated with Climate Change Impacts or WIM by the UNFCCC as a fund allocation tool for the determination of whether a given weather event in a poor non-Annex country qualifies for financial compensation from rich Annex-I countries. It’s elevation to “science” and it’s use to identify extreme weather events as evidence of the harmful nature of climate change is an extreme form of confirmation bias and circular reasoning. A detailed case study of PEA elevated to Event Attribution Science is provided in a related post here: EVENT ATTRIBUTION CASE STUDY.
  2. OCEAN ACIDIFICATION:  The evidence for human caused ocean acidification, presented as “Since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution, the acidity of surface ocean waters has increased by about 30 percent and since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution, the acidity of surface ocean waters has increased by about 30 percent.” contains a common statistical flaw that is known to create spurious correlations. This argument does not serve as evidence that fossil fuel emissions cause ocean acidification. The related post on spurious correlations is here SPURIOUS CORRELATIONS IN CLIMATE SCIENCE and the ocean acidification issue presented here HUMAN CAUSED CLIMATE CHANGE shows that detrended correlation analysis does not show the close association of ocean acidification with emissions implied by the NASA statement above.
  3. SCIENTIFIC CONSENSUS: A strong agreement among climate scientists is often presented as evidence that therefore climate science must be correct. This logic is flawed. Correctness of a scientific finding must rely on data and the scientific method and not on opinion polls. If anything, the 97% consensus statistic works against climate science because it is indicative of a field  of study that harbors a cult-like belief system and is therefore incapable of objective scientific inquiry. A climate science peer review case study seems to indicate a cultist group-think culture in climate science. The case study is presented in a related post here: CLIMATE SCIENCE PEER REVIEW CASE STUDY.
  4. The oceans are warming, ice sheets are shrinking, glaciers retreating, snow cover decreasing, the sea level is rising, Arctic sea ice is declining. These trends are normal in a warming earth still recovering from the last ice age and the little ice age that ended in 1850. They are not evidence of human cause. Still, it should be noted that Arctic sea ice is mentioned but Antarctic sea ice is overlooked. This kind of confirmation bias in climate science is a serious issue because it implies that climate scientists are not objective seekers of truth but biased activists and advocates out to prove a thesis to which they have already wholeheartedly subscribed.
  5. Scary trends and events. The only evidence that extreme weather is caused by fossil fuel emissions is found in the so called Event Attribution studies that are carried out with climate models. The methodology imposes a built-in confirmation bias as well as circular reasoning. Here is a case study of event attribution analysis EVENT ATTRIBUTION CASE STUDY.

 

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