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NASA: Evidence of Human Caused Climate Change #3

Posted on: July 27, 2018

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LINKS TO ALL FOUR SECTIONS OF THIS REVIEW 

NASA EVIDENCE FOR HUMAN CAUSED CLIMATE CHANGE #1:

NASA EVIDENCE FOR HUMAN CAUSED CLIMATE CHANGE #2:

NASA EVIDENCE FOR HUMAN CAUSED CLIMATE CHANGE #3:

NASA EVIDENCE FOR HUMAN CAUSED CLIMATE CHANGE #4:

Chart1: Hadcrut4 temperature trends for the Northern Hemisphere for each calendar month: 1850-2016

hadcrut4nh2016

Chart2: Hadcrut4 temperature trends for the Southern Hemisphere for each calendar month: 1850-2016

hadcrut4sh2016

Source Document: Global Climate Change  

CLAIM: The planet’s average surface temperature has risen about 1.62 degrees Fahrenheit (0.9 degrees Celsius) since the late 19th century, a change driven largely by increased carbon dioxide and other human-made emissions into the atmosphere. [Source:  Most of the warming occurred in the past 35 years, with the five warmest years on record taking place since 2010. Not only was 2016 the warmest year on record, but eight of the 12 months that make up the year — from January through September, with the exception of June — were the warmest on record for those respective months.

RESPONSE

  1. “The planet’s average surface temperature has risen about 0.9C driven largely by increased carbon dioxide”. This claim assumes that the observed increase in atmospheric CO2 is driven by emissions and that the observed increase in surface temperature is driven by atmospheric CO2 concentration. These relationships exist in climate models because they have been programmed into them but they are not found in the observational data as shown in these two related posts: HUMAN CAUSED CLIMATE CHANGETHE GREENHOUSE EFFECT OF ATMOSPHERIC CO2. No evidence exists outside of climate models that relate warming to emissions outside of climate models and without the use of spurious correlations as discussed in this related post: SPURIOUS CORRELATIONS IN CLIMATE SCIENCE.
  2. It is also noted that the overall warming rate of 0.6C per century is not uniform seasonally or regionally as seen in the two charts above marked as Chart#1 and Chart#2. Seasonally we find that the Southern Hemisphere does show a close agreement in the warming rate with the observed warming rate contained in a narrow range of 0.4C to 0.5C per century but the Northern Hemisphere shows a large seasonal variation in the warming rate. The warming rate is as high as 1.1C per century in the late fall and winter and as low as 0.3C in the summer months of June, July, and August. In terms of regional variation the charts show that the average warming rate across seasons is much higher in the Northern Hemisphere at 0.74C per century than in the Southern Hemisphere at 0.46C per century.
  3. Most of the warming occurred in the past 35 years“. The reference is to the warming trend since the end of the cooling period from the mid 1940s to the late 1970s when climate science was warning us of a return to Little Ice Age conditions. It was only after that cooling period ended and a warming trend began in the late 1970s that the Hansen and Lacis papers of the 1980s and in particular the Hansen 1988 Congressional testimony launched the current interest in and fear of warming. This kind of data analysis where selected sub-spans of a time series are used to buttress theory is a form of circular reasoning and confirmation bias. Such arguments do not show that climate science is correct but instead imply that climate science is weak in scientific and statistical rigor.
  4. The five warmest years on record taking place since 2010. Not only was 2016 the warmest year on record, but eight of the 12 months that make up the year from January through September, with the exception of June were the warmest on record for those respective months.” These “warmest on record” claims may have some value in getting people’s attention but they are irrelevant in the study of global warming. Climate science insists, and correctly so, that only long term trends in temperature and NOT temperature events, however dramatic they may be, are relevant in terms of the theory of anthropogenic global warming. The continued use of temperature events as evidence of anthropogenic global warming by climate scientists is puzzling and disturbing. Clearly the temperature events are being used to create a sense of alarm. It may be that climate scientists are also climate activists and that they are having a difficult time wearing both hats.

3 Responses to "NASA: Evidence of Human Caused Climate Change #3"

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