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NASA: Evidence of Human Caused Climate Change #2

Posted on: July 27, 2018

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LINKS TO ALL FOUR SECTIONS OF THIS REVIEW 

NASA EVIDENCE FOR HUMAN CAUSED CLIMATE CHANGE #1:

NASA EVIDENCE FOR HUMAN CAUSED CLIMATE CHANGE #2:

NASA EVIDENCE FOR HUMAN CAUSED CLIMATE CHANGE #3:

NASA EVIDENCE FOR HUMAN CAUSED CLIMATE CHANGE #4:

Source Document: Global Climate Change  

CLAIM: Earth-orbiting satellites and other technological advances have enabled scientists to see the big picture, collecting many different types of information about our planet and its climate on a global scale. This body of data, collected over many years, reveals the signals of a changing climateThe heat-trapping nature of carbon dioxide and other gases was demonstrated in the mid-19th century. Their ability to affect the transfer of infrared energy through the atmosphere is the scientific basis of many instruments flown by NASA. There is no question that increased levels of greenhouse gases must cause the Earth to warm in responseIce cores drawn from Greenland, Antarctica, and tropical mountain glaciers show that the Earth’s climate responds to changes in greenhouse gas levels. Ancient evidence can also be found in tree rings, ocean sediments, coral reefs, and layers of sedimentary rocks. This ancient, or paleoclimate, evidence reveals that current warming is occurring roughly ten times faster than the average rate of ice-age-recovery warming.

 

RESPONSE

  1. This body of data, collected over many years, reveals the signals of a changing climate“. There is no dispute that the evidence shows that the world has been on an overall warming trend since the end of the LITTLE ICE AGE. However, it is also clear from the data that the overall OLS warming trend is not sustained but only the net result of violently changing 30-year warming and cooling trends with no evidence that these changes are related to fossil fuel emissions Correlation of Warming with Global Emissions
  2. “The heat-trapping nature of carbon dioxide and other gases was demonstrated in the mid-19th century”. This statement is false. Fourier, Tyndal, Arrhenius and others proposed a theory that this was the case but this effect was never demonstrated. Arrhenius used this theory to explain ice age cycles in very long time scales of millions of years but that theory has been discredited and is not the currently held theory of ice ages. The Milankovitch theory is the currently held view. That modern climate scientist need to lean so heavily on Arrhenius for this crucial relationship reveals the real weakness in climate science and that is the Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS)issue described in a related post  THE GREENHOUSE EFFECT OF ATMOSPHERIC CO2The testable implication of the greenhouse effect first proposed by Jule Charney is that there should be a linear relationship between surface temperature and the logarithm of atmospheric CO2 concentration. Although that regression can be carried out in the observational data and a regression coefficient computed, it’s instability and uncertainty is a major weakness in climate science and this issue has not been resolved.
  3. There is no question that increased levels of greenhouse gases must cause the Earth to warm in response”. There is no question that climate sensitivity is found in climate models but that is because it has been programmed into them. There is no question that the Charney Climate Sensitivity is not found in the observational data. Climate science has acknowledged the difficulty with the ECS issue and have proposed a new measure called Transient Climate Response or TCR based on a correlation between surface temperature and cumulative emissions. That climate science needs to resort to the TCR is a tacit admission of the failure of the ECS  and their failure to find the greenhouse effect of CO2 on which this whole science is based. The TCR is described in three related posts here SPURIOUS CORRELATIONS , here GREENHOUSE EFFECT OF ATMOSPHERIC CO2 and here TRANSIENT CLIMATE RESPONSE.
  4. Ice cores drawn from Greenland, Antarctica, and tropical mountain glaciers show that the Earth’s climate responds to changes in greenhouse gas levels“. The data show that warmer temperatures are associated with higher carbon dioxide levels. There is no data that show that temperature “responds” to carbon dioxide. That conclusion from the paleodata is a case of circular reasoning and confirmation bias because that which is to be proven is assumed in the way the data are interpreted. Causation and the direction of causation must be proven separately from the association. An association between X and Y in field data could mean that X causes Y or that Y causes X or that a third unobserved variable causes both X and Y or that the association has no causation interpretation. In fact, the NASA conclusion that that CO2 causes warming has been challenged by the alternate theory that warming causes CO2 because of the observed lag in the data.
  5. “paleoclimate, evidence reveals that current warming is occurring roughly ten times faster than the average rate of ice-age-recovery warming”. This statement is based on a comparison of warming trends in two very different time scales. It is true that in time scales of millions of millions of years the transitions between ice ages and interglacials are slow but within these slow moving changes are violent changes in the shorter time cycles just as I have shown that even the linear OLS warming since 1850 is simply the net result of violent 30-year periods of warming and cooling at much higher rates. Correlation of Warming with Global Emissions

 

3 Responses to "NASA: Evidence of Human Caused Climate Change #2"

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[…] NASA EVIDENCE FOR HUMAN CAUSED CLIMATE CHANGE #2: […]

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