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Archive for April 2018

The methodology used by climate science to show that warming is driven by CO2 also shows that homicides are driven by CO2 [LINK]

 

and that warming is driven by UFOs [LINK]

 

 

FIGURE 1: TRENDS IN DAILY TMAX AND TMIN AT 34 USHCN STATIONSUSHCNGIF

FIGURE 2: SUMMARY OF DATA IN FIGURE 1XX

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  1. The map above shows the location of the USHCN stations used in yellow. Figure 1, displays trend information for daily minimum temperatures (TMIN) and daily maximum temperatures (TMAX) in a GIF animation that cycles through the 34 stations in 17 states alphabetically from Alabama to Washington. In these plots, the twelve calendar months are labeled from 1 to 12 on the x-axis. The ordinate shows trends for these calendar months in daily TMAX (red), daily TMIN (blue), and the diurnal range (grey).
  2. The data for all 34 stations are summarized in Figure 2. In the left frame of Figure 2, the 34 stations are identified along the x-axis by the numerals 1-34 and the ordinate shows the average trends for the station in TMAX (red), TMIN (blue), and diurnal range (grey). The right frame shows the average of these values for all stations in each calendar month.
  3. What we find in these charts is that trend analysis for each calendar month of more than 100 years of daily maximum (TMAX) and daily minimum (TMIN) temperatures show an overall warming trend in the data that is driven primarily by warming in the nighttime minimum TMIN and not by the daytime maximum TMAX; and mostly by warming in the colder winter months and not by warming in the hotter summer months. This pattern is seen in both hemispheres.
  4. These results imply that the global warming trend is one of diminishing coldness rather than increasing warmness. This pattern is inconsistent with the proposal that the observed warming trend is driven by the greenhouse heat trapping effect of the rising carbon dioxide concentration of the atmosphere. The trend patterns are also inconsistent with Event Attribution procedures using climate models that attribute all heat waves to fossil fuel emissions with the further claim that emission reduction is necessary prevent the occurrence of heat waves. 
  5. Full text of the work with data analysis details may be found here: [LINK] .

THIS SAME PATTERN IS SEEN IN AUSTRALIA: LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2019/02/12/australia-climate-change-daily-station-data/  

  1. Daily maximum (TMAX) and daily minimum (TMIN) temperatures are provided by the Government of Australia Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) for a large number of weather stations located throughout Australia (BOM, 2017). Five of these weather stations are listed below. They were selected for the study based on data availability of data for more than a century. Large gaps of a decade or more without data were found in the Boulia Airport and Hobart datasets and these stations were removed from the study. In the remaining three stations, all data from incomplete calendar years at the beginning and end of the time series were removed. The remaining sample period for full calendar years are 1865-2016 for Station-90015, 1885-2016 for Station-26026, and 1893-2016 for Station-30045. For each station the daily maximum temperature and daily minimum temperature are reported for each day of the year. Data are missing for 3% to 5% of the days. Missing data were replaced with the most recent data available – typically separated by one to four days. The error introduced by this procedure is assumed to be negligible. Measuring station details are shown in the table below for the five stations considered in the study. Three of these stations contained a sufficient span of data with low missing data counts and the data from these stations were selected for study. The three selected stations are: 90015-Cape-Otway, 26026-Robe, and 30045-Richmond. TMIN and TMAX and the twelve calendar months are studied separately as different phenomena of nature and not combined. This procedure requires twenty four separate sets of trend analysis for each weather station. The procedure maintains the integrity of both the diurnal cycle and the seasonal cycle. STATIONS
  2. DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS ALL THREE STATIONS fig01capeotwayROBERICHMOND
  3. TREND ANALYSIS FOR 90015 CAPE OTWAY: TMAX AND TMINTREND-1TREND-2
  4. TREND ANALYSIS FOR 26026 ROBE: TMAX AND TMIN  ROBE-TMAXROBE-TMIN
  5. TREND ANALYSIS FOR 30045 RICHMOND: TMAX AND TMIN  RICHMOND-1RICHMOND-2
  6. SUMMARY OF RESULTS: TMAX AND TMIN: ALL THREE STATIONS  SUMMARY-OF-RESULTS

SUMMARY2

SUMMARY3

SUMMARY4

CONCLUSION

Over a hundred years of daily minimum (TMIN) and daily maximum (TMAX) temperature measurements at three weather stations in Australia (90015, 26026, & 30045) taken by the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) are studied separately on a month by month basis for long term trends. The procedure is designed to maintain data integrity in terms of the diurnal and seasonal cycles that involve temperature changes orders of magnitude greater than long term trends. The results for TMAX are inconclusive with one station showing cooling and the other two showing mixed results with warming trends for some months and no evidence of trends for other months. We conclude that the TMAX data do not provide convincing evidence of long term warming trends. Dramatically different results are found for TMIN. All three stations show strong and statistically significant warming trends in TMIN. However, detrended correlation analysis could not relate these warming trends to fossil fuel emissions. These results are anomalous. No theoretical framework exists for anthropogenic global warming acting through the greenhouse effect of atmospheric CO2 by way of fossil fuel emissions to cause warming in nighttime temperatures without affecting the maximum daytime temperature. It is proposed that anomalies of this kind may be used in conjunction with other factors in the evaluation of the integrity of the instrumental record of surface temperature.

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Brewer–Dobson circulation (BDC) and stratospheric ozone. The sense of... |  Download Scientific Diagram

LINKS TO RELATED POSTS ON OZONE DEPLETION:  

HISTORY OF THE OZONE DEPLETION SCARE

EMPIRICAL TESTS OF OZONE DEPLETION

BREWER-DOBSON CIRCULATION

World Ozone Day: 30th anniversary of Montreal Protocol - British Antarctic  Survey

The Montreal Protocol subsumes that without human intervention the amount of ozone in the stratosphere is invariant and that a decline in ozone over time is a trend and not part of long run cyclical phenomena.

Any observed depletion is thus assumed to be man-made and the causative agent is identified as CFC. As a result of these conclusions a global ban on Freon refrigerants was hastily issued. The ban and its rationale are controversial.

The Protocol has caused billions of dollars in economic losses worldwide and at the same time it has created a black market for Freon of which the news media have taken note. News reports portray the Montreal Protocol as good and the black market as bad. A close examination of the data raises serious questions as to the validity of this judgement.

The ultraviolet spectrum in incident solar radiation comes in three frequency bands. The high energy band (200-240 nanometers in wavelength) and the medium energy band (240-300 nanometers in wavelength) are harmful to living matter and are absorbed in the ozone layer while the low energy band (300-480 nanometers in wavelength) reaches the earth’s surface and causes tanning.

What is ultraviolet radiation? Definition and examples

Ozone plays a role in the absorption of harmful UV radiation. It is both created and destroyed in the absorption process. 

The high-energy band UV is absorbed by oxygen molecules. The energy absorbed causes the oxygen molecule to break apart into extremely reactive oxygen atoms. A subsequent chance collision of these particles with other oxygen molecules causes the formation of ozone. The ozone thus formed then absorbs the medium-energy UV band and disintegrates back into oxygen.

The UV absorption process is a cyclical one that begins and ends with oxygen. Ozone is a transient intermediate product of this process. The reason that there is any ozone accumulation at all in the stratosphere is that, of the three reactions, the second is the slowest. Sunset finds the stratosphere with an excess of single oxygen atoms still looking for a date with an oxygen molecule.

Overnight, with no radiation to destroy their product, these particles build up an inventory of ozone whose destruction will begin anew at sunrise. There is therefore, a diurnal cycle in the ozone content of the stratosphere whose amplitude, incidentally, is of the same order of magnitude as reported ozone depletion that caused Montreal Protocol to be invoked.

The Sunspot Cycle

A longer but irregular cyclical pattern in stratospheric ozone coincides with the sunspot cycle. The period is approximately 11 years. It has been as long as 17 years and as short as 8 years. High-energy band UV increases by 6 to 10% during periods of high sunspot activity but the medium-energy UV emission is largely unaffected. Therefore, high sunspot activity favors ozone accumulation and low sunspot activity is coincident with ozone depletion.

2019 Ozone Hole is the Smallest on Record Since Its Discovery | NASA

A somewhat similar pattern exists in the case of polar ozone holes.

The UV induced reactions described above occur only over the tropics where sunlight is direct. Ozone is formed over the equator and not over the poles. Equatorial ozone is distributed to the poles by the Brewer-Dobson Circulation (BDC).

Brewer-Dobson Circulation – Welcome to Khalil Karami's website

THE SHAPE AND LOCATION OF THE BREWER DOBSON CIRCULATION CHANGES SEASONALLY AND SHIFTS AT LONGER TIME SCALES. 

The shape and position of the BDC changes seasonally and also shifts over a longer time cycle. Therefore, the efficiency of the BDC in transporting ozone to the greater latitudes changes seasonally and also over longer time cycles. Brewer, A. W. “Evidence for a world circulation provided by the measurements of helium and water vapour distribution in the stratosphere.” Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 75.326 (1949): 351-363.

When the distribution of ozone is not efficient, localized “ozone depletion” appears to occur in the extreme latitudes in the form of what has come to be called an ozone hole. These holes come and go in natural cyclical changes and are not the creation of chemical ozone depletion and they do not serve as empirical evidence of the Roland Molina theory of ozone depletion by CFCs.

GLOBAL WARMING AND OZONE DEPLETION? 

Ozone destroying' chemicals blamed for a THIRD of all global warming  between 1955 and 2005

Concurrent with the ozone hole scare, climate scientists report that the warming trend has weakened the Brewer Dobson circulation .

This connection between climate and ozone appears to indicate that warming can create more frequent and larger ozone holes. Butchart, N., et al. “Simulations of anthropogenic change in the strength of the Brewer–Dobson circulation.” Climate Dynamics 27.7-8 (2006): 727-741. However, the effect of global warming or of changing atmospheric composition on the Brewer Dobson Circulation remains controversial. Garcia, Rolando R., and William J. Randel. “Acceleration of the Brewer–Dobson circulation due to increases in greenhouse gases.” Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences 65.8 (2008): 2731-2739.

Cfcs GIFs - Get the best gif on GIFER

THE CASE AGAINST CFCs

The case against CFCs is that when they get to the stratosphere by diffusion, they absorb high-energy band UV and form unstable and reactive chlorine atoms. The chlorine atom particles then participate as catalytic agents to convert ozone back to oxygen. In other words they mediate the reaction between atomic oxygen particles and ozone. It is alleged that the destruction of ozone by this mechanism exposes the surface of the earth to dangerous levels of medium-band UV because there is not enough ozone in the stratosphere to absorb them.

Ozone - Chemistry LibreTexts

Although these reactions can be carried out in the chemistry lab, there are certain rate constraints that make them irrelevant in the stratosphere. 

The air up there in the stratosphere is rather thin, containing less than one percent (1%) of the molecular density of air at sea level. It is not easy for a molecular particle in random thermal motion to find another particle to react with. Photochemical reactions occur instantaneously while those that require a collision of two particles take much much much longer. This difference in the reaction rate is the reason that ozone accumulates overnight and why there is an inventory of ozone in the ozone layer.

The atomic oxygen particles that react with oxygen molecules to form ozone could in theory react with an ozone molecule instead and cause its destruction or it could react with another atomic oxygen particle and form oxygen instead of ever forming any ozone. Some of the oxygen atoms do behave in this manner but these reactions proceed too slowly to be important to the chemistry of the stratosphere.

The reason is that the stratospheric chemicals in question exist in minute quantities. One in a million particles is an ozone molecule or an atomic oxygen particle and one in a billion is CFC or chlorine generated from CFC. The accidental collision between chlorine atoms and ozone molecules or between chlorine atoms and oxygen atoms are rarer than those between two oxygen atoms or that between an oxygen atom and an ozone molecule. Therefore the latter collisions involving oxygen atoms are more important to ozone depletion than those mediated by chlorine.

Considering that more than 200,000 out of a million molecular particles in the stratosphere are oxygen, it is far more likely that charged oxygen atoms will collide with oxygen molecules rather than with each other or with ozone. Therefore ozone rather than oxygen is formed. Ozone formation is a rate phenomenon.

Chlorine atoms are a thousand times rarer in the stratosphere than atomic oxygen particles, it is not likely that chlorine’s mediation in short circuiting ozone generation will occur sufficiently fast to be important. Nature already contains an ozone destruction mechanism that is more efficient than the CFC mechanism but ozone forms anyway.

However, the argument can be made that overnight after sunset, as charged oxygen atoms are used up the charged chlorine atoms take on a greater role in ozone destruction and also when these chemicals are distributed to the greater latitudes where sunlight is less direct and too weak to be ionizers of oxygen, the only ozone destruction chemistry left is that of charged chlorine atoms colliding with ozone. The  relative importance of these overnight and greater latitude reactions in making changes to latitudinally weighted mean global ozone can be checked by examining its overall long term trends as well as its trend profiles. These data are shown in the data analysis documents in related posts on this site. EMPIRICAL TESTS OF OZONE DEPLETIONThey do not show the ozone depletion described in the Montreal Protocol.

HISTORY OF THE OZONE DEPLETION SCARE

EMPIRICAL TESTS OF OZONE DEPLETION

BREWER-DOBSON CIRCULATION



  • budbromley: https://budbromley.blog/2022/09/24/that-would-be-the-road-to-hell/
  • budbromley: Could be a good article for the Babylon Bee. Just left out the 97% joke and hockey stick. Instead, I see a ground swell of resistance, more deniers,
  • chaamjamal: IF THE SCIENCE IS GOOD SELL THE SCIENCE WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE SCIENCE IF THE SCIENCE IS BAD, SELL THE SCIENCE BY DENIGRATING ITS CRITICS.