Thongchai Thailand

Archive for July 2010

  1. Reduced water flow caused by dams upstream allows brackish water to encroach farther into deltas than it normally does and thereby to adversely affect traditional agriculture in coastal regions. Yet, the UNDP is trying to pin the salinity problem in the Mekong delta on global warming knowing full well that dams in China have significantly reduced the flow in the Mekong River (Salty waters parched earth, Bangkok Post, July 18, 2010).
  2. In any case, if drought and salinity are devastating rice farming in the Mekong delta, it is not evident in the production statistics which show that overproduction has left the delta awash in rice with the urgent problem being low demand and falling prices, not global warming (Vietnam rice growers face low prices, Bangkok Post, July 19, 2010).

Cha-am Jamal

Thailand

But cash baby bonuses are not on the agenda.

China can retrieve its irresponsible error of blocking UN action.

But China has let not only itself but the world down.

By extension, he chipped the government’s credibility.

The few violent regimes only back up words with force.

Mr Thepthai is taken seriously by media and opinion makers.

A military style training camp is a major offence against the peace and security of the nation. In addition to treason, any group setting up such training camps would effectively be declaring war on the institutions.

The idea of multiple, military-style training camps in the country would be troubling and more.

A daily search was made for the phrases “global warming” or “climate change” or both in all of the 278 English language newspapers worldwide served by pressdiaplay.com. The running seven-day average of these data are plotted in the chart below.

It shows a sudden rise around the time of he Copenhagen meeting in December 2009. Since that high some dramatic changes have occurred. The Copenhagen meeting failed, the climategate scandal broke, errors in the IPCC 2007 Assessment report kept popping up one after another, and the IPCC began backpedaling and retracting one scary claim after another.

These errors and their retractions have apparently silenced the previously very shrill voice of the UN’s climate change body. The almost daily new press releases of climate change calamity has ceased. The number of climate change stories has fallen dramatically and they continue to decline.

These data bode ill for the IPCC. Their position now is actually worse than it looks in this chart because many of the newspaper articles now being counted as global warming stories are not IPCC press releases but criticisms of the IPCC’s 2007 Assessment Report.

Cha-am Jamal, Thailand

The Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency known as PBL carried out an evaluation of the chapters in the 2007 IPCC working group II report that were regionally relevant to the Netherlands. They found the following errors.

1. The area in the Netherlands that the IPCC said was at risk of flooding by the sea was exaggerated.

2. A systemic tendency by the IPCC to stress negative effects of climate change and to ignore positive effects to the point of a built in misleading bias in the IPCC reports.

3. A systemic tendency to generalize localized information as in the following two examples.

4. The statement that “by 2020 in some countries yields from rain fed agriculture could be reduced to 50%” was based on a paper that was specific to Morocco. Also the paper said that the reduction in yields would occur only in drought years and not in other years. Even worse, it is not possible for auditors to read this paper because the IPCC is unable to produce a copy of it.

5. A statement in a source document about lower yields of three crops, viz millet, groundnuts, and cowpeas in Niger was generalized by the IPCC without justification to the entire Sahel region and to all crops.

6. A statement in the source document specific to cattle in Argentina was incorrectly generalized by the IPCC to all livestock in all of South America.

7. Statements are made without any supporting data or references as shown by the following examples.

8. The claim by the IPCC that fresh water availability in southern and eastern Asia will decline is not supported by data or the literature.

9. The claim that in balance the net health effect of global warming on Europe will be negative is not supported by data or literature.

10. The IPCC report tends to be unremittingly bad news because they focus on vulnerabilities and damage quite possibly because bad news brings in more research funds than good news.

11. Vulnerable countries are asked to make a self assessment of their vulnerability with the knowledge that vulnerability encourages adaptation funding from rich countries; and so these assessments tend to be biased but they form the source material for IPCC reports.

12. The alarming and negative impression of IPCC reports on their readers would not exist if the IPCC presented the source material without bias and with a more narrow and objective interpretation without injecting the authors’ judgement.

13. A rise in heat related deaths in Australia due to a rise in population was presented by the IPCC instead as due to rising temperatures.

14. The way in which the IPCC synthesizes, generalizes, and checks its findings systematically favors adverse outcomes in a way that goes beyond serving the needs of policymakers.

Jamal’s summary: The IPCC is  primarily concerned with selling us the idea of climate change calamity and its mitigation by emission reduction and their use of  science is limited to its utility  in supporting that primary purpose.

Cha-am Jamal

Thailand

A vicarious effect of the naming of the two committees, which can turn out to be the best thing after all, is that it is inspiring.

Although Bhutan’s tobacco ban is rigorously enforced, its government does not have the hindrance of owning and operating a thriving tobacco monopoly.

Mr Anand noted on the day the committee members were revealed that reforming Thailand “is not up to the two of us”.

It is doomed to fail or be left on the shelf to gather dust if the public does not put its mind into it.

It seems to have given many people a reason to be hopeful again, after being enclosed in the doom and gloom of seemingly endless political conflicts.

The members have not only achieved so much in their respective fields of work but they also come from a variety of backgrounds that will complement their mission.

The task of national reform will be tackled with a balance of intellectual exuberance and practical knowledge.

There is room for the public to start feeling hopeful.

It is uplifting to see so many people who have led a life of integrity join hands to find a better hope for the nation.

The performance of green stocks is assessed as the weighted average value of green ETFs in excess of a corresponding normalized value of the S&P500 index with the difference set at zero at the beginning of the comparison period. The chart below shows that over the period from April 2008 to June 2010, green stocks have lost almost have their value relative to the S&P500 stocks.

The extreme form of confrontational politics in Thailand formed of acrimony between the yellow shirted  rightists and the red shirted leftists has established a tit-for-tat pattern that ensures that there will continue to be cycles of protests with each cycle more vicious than the last with Bangkok, the seat of government, as the venue.

As Bangkok is also the commercial and transportation hub of the country and the primary  international air travel and tourism gateway, all of these facilities are vulnerable to protest mayhem as we have seen in recent months.

As a way of preparing the country to withstand these protests and of keeping their economic cost to the nation as low as possible, it may be advisable for Thailand to consider the Brasilia model. This model suggests that there is no good reason for the country’s seat of government to be located in its commercial center. In fact, in the case of Thailand there are probably good reasons for government and commerce to be geographically separated in this manner.

Perhaps the capital of Thailand could be moved north closer to the center of mass of the country not including the isthmus. This kind of separation will likely spare the country’s tourism and commercial hub from protests gone awry. As a secondary benefit, the construction of Thailand’s Brasilia might also serve as a public works project to stimulate the economy while at the same time distributing modern infrastructure to the hinterland.

Cha-am Jamal

Reference: The world turns right Thailand turns left, Bangkok Post, July 9, 2010

It is argued that since budget deficits and looming sovereign debt crises in Britain, Greece, and elsewhere in the EU have driven these nations into austerity programs to cut spending as a way of balancing the budget, Thailand should follow follow suit with an austerity program of its own instead of increasing government spending with new populist programs for free train tickets and such  (The world turns right Thailand turns left, Bangkok Post, July 9, 2010).

Austerity programs are not like a fashion trend to be followed as the new “in” thing to do. They are made necessary by harsh economic realities such as unsustainable budget deficits, an excessive amount of sovereign debt, and falling bond ratings. If an austerity program is prescribed for Thailand the argument must be supported with the relevant economic data for Thailand, and not simply with the observation that austerity programs have become fashionable in the West.

Cha-am Jamal

Thailand

Dreaming is the mental evolution between sleep and consciousness.

Congee does not have enough nutrients to benefit your body at all.

Community land ownership is against capitalism based on individual ownership.

And the land rights movement has another problem within which is political divisiveness.

With fierce resistance from the Ministry their community land reform plans cannot begin.

Thus, if a minister does not take bribes the bureaucrats under him would hardly dare do so.

It should seek foreign assistance in mediating with the opposition.

The report is probably going to inspire some controversy of its own.

But the criticism of the ICG is nothing that the government has not heard.

Only an election can hopefully put an end to this important disagreement.



  • Paul H: The figures for Deniers is worryingly low, I would rather it be upper eighties at least.
  • Ruben Leon: Anything is possible if you take everything to the extreme, even CO2 infrared "feed-back" loops and the entire planet's atmosphere becoming hotter be
  • chaamjamal: Thank you